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Princeton Diplomatic Invitational 2020 Princeton Diplomatic Invitational 2020 North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Committee Chair: Person ‘year Director: NATO PDI 2020 Contents Contents .......................................................................................................................................... 2 Introduction to NATO ................................................................................................................ 3 Topic A: Russia Today ................................................................................................................. 5 Questions to Consider ................................................................................................................ 14 Bibliography A ............................................................................................................................. 15 Topic B: Counter-terrorism ....................................................................................................... 15 Questions to Consider ................................................................................................................ 27 Bibliography B ............................................................................................................................. 28 2 NATO PDI 2020 Introduction to NATO The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is a military and political alliance made up of 28 member states throughout Europe and the Americas. First established on April 4th, 1949 with the North Atlantic Treaty, NATO’s creation at the beginning of the Cold War was an attempt at balancing power between the East and West. More specifically, the rise of Soviet Union following WWII – and the widespread fear of the communism that came without it, especially in Europe – necessitated some form of intergovernmental action that would provide for the mutual protection of several allied nations in the North Atlantic. As such, NATO’s primary purpose is to safeguard the freedom and security of its members through its most unique, enduring principle – the principle of collective defense. In the North Atlantic Treaty, collective defense is established in Article 5, wherein it is stated that “an armed attack against one or more [members]… shall be considered an attack against them all.”1 However, Article 5 had never been formally invoked until the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States. In so doing, the North Atlantic Council – the governing body of the organization – exhibited solidarity toward the US, as well as its power to engage in collective action against counterterrorism. Among other things, this action involved radar aircraft patrol, naval standing forces and efforts to “enhance intelligence- sharing and cooperation, both bilaterally and in appropriate NATO bodies.” The cooperation and sharing of NATO’s military assets follows both a civilian and a military structure. Of the former, each member state has at its disposal a delegation of permanent representatives, all of which are overseen by the NATO headquarters in Brussels. 1 "The North Atlantic Treaty." NATO. Accessed September 29, 2016. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm. 3 NATO PDI 2020 Of the latter, NATO military operations oversee forces placed under the organization’s jurisdiction by individual member states, along with associated command and control structures. These forces are available for NATO operations once they meet a specific set of readiness criteria, as well as rules of deployment that vary from country to country. In civilian and military matters alike, however, a consensus is taken by common consent. Since 1949, this principle of consensus has existed at every committee level, meaning that any “NATO decision” passed is an expression of the collective will of the 28 sovereign states participating in the Alliance.2 This system is interesting politically – and rather idiosyncratic on the international stage – seeing as consensus decision-making means there is no voting within NATO. Consultations instead take place until a course of action that is acceptable to all is agreed upon. Surprisingly, this negotiation process happens rapidly since members consult each other on a regular basis. They often can anticipate each other's positions as a result. 2 Nato. "Consensus Decision-making at NATO." NATO. March 14, 2016. Accessed September 29, 2016. http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49178.htm. 4 NATO PDI 2020 Topic A: Russia and NATO NATO was originally established to balance power between the Soviet Union and North Atlantic nations. This meant the mission of NATO was clear and simple, reflected in the brevity of the original document. The Founding Articles NATO allies would come to each other’s aid in the event of an attack on a member state under Article 53. The assumption was, from 1949 through 1991 that NATO would most likely face off against the Warsaw Pact in an all-out combined arms land war in continental Europe and the North Atlantic. During this period, NATO and the Warsaw Pact were directly comparable. The United States and the Soviet Union provided the brunt of the nuclear and conventional forces to their respective sides. Both possessed similar force sizes, though the exact strategic doctrine, quality of troops and preferred tactics varied. The Soviet Union was expected to use large armored formations to cross the famous Fulda Gap in Germany and Western Europe. The assumption for NATO and the reality for the Warsaw Pact was simple. NATO’s ally troops and forward deployed American forces would attempt to hold off the Warsaw Pact for as long as possible before US reinforcements could arrive over the Atlantic route. In Limbo: the 1990s In 1991, this situation changed. The Warsaw Pact disintegrated, leaving NATO without its original mission. Since then, the threat has shifted to insurgencies in distant deserts. These threats have been largely intangible, decentralized and highly variable. NATO has also 3 NATO, “Countering Terrorism.” 5 NATO PDI 2020 expanded, adding many former Warsaw Pact states and even the former Baltic Soviet Republics: Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia4. Russia Resurgent This last point has not gone unnoticed by NATO’s eastern neighbor. Russia has since 2000 greatly modernized and expanded its military capability5. Russia in 2000 was suffering from a top heavy command structure with too many senior officers, while vital high end equipment atrophied and conscripts were unpaid. The situation has improved drastically. Military reforms have increased the number of professional troops, new weapons projects, started in the 1990s have been brought to fruition and tactics developed6. Russia now possesses one of the most robust and competitive arms manufacturing industries, behind only the United States in arms exports. The Russian military is capable of carrying out highly coordinated operations close to home: as demonstrated in Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Capabilities for deployments abroad have also been greatly increased, as the Russian intervention in the Syrian Civil War has proven decisive7. For all intents and purposes, Russia is a world power, with a formidable military capability. Force imbalance Russia, for all its military capability is still a single nation, operating without a major defensive alliance like NATO. Combined, NATO members possess a larger population, economy and military force. The United States alone outguns Russia in every military metric, at least on paper. 4 Joel R Hillison, “New NATO Members: Security Producers or Consumers.” 5 The Rand Corporatin, “What Will Russian Military Capabilities Look Like in the Future?” 6 The Rand Corporatin. 7 “Putin Announces Russian Troop Withdrawal from Syria during Visit.” 6 NATO PDI 2020 This strategic situation is unique. An alliance of 29 members against a single large nation creates special risks and opportunities for both sides. NATO is an alliance with varying degrees of integration. Eastern members, closest to Russia possess limited military capabilities, some still are heavily reliant on Soviet era equipment, while spending insufficient sums on defense. Much of NATO’s present mission has been shifted to working on counter- terrorism, with counter-Russian capabilities deteriorating. NATO has stepped in to fill gaps, notably providing an international rotation of jet fighters to the three Baltic States (which do not possess any combat aircraft of their own)8. Russia meanwhile has largely worked to modernize its military for the position it finds itself in. Russia is not the Soviet Union, neither in size, population or economy. It cannot fight NATO directly in a prolonged conflict. In response, Russia’s economy and scientific expertise has been leveraged to counter this NATO advantage. On the military side: overlapping grids of anti-air and anti-ship missile coverage can prevent NATO mobilizations and movements of troops and aircraft to the front lines. Russian missile technology has recently produced highly accurate, effective cruise missiles like the Kalibr family. Also in the news has been the S-400 air defense complex. This system is regarded as among the best in the world for air defense, effective against stealth fighters, enemy cruise missiles and even ballistic missiles9. In the event of a war, NATO would need time to mobilize and bring its forces to bear from the US and Western Europe. During this time, Russian troops could dig in to forward positions and deploy their area denial systems. These would be more than a match for NATO troops if
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