The FUTURE OF WAR IN ITS TECHNICAL ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL RELATIONS BY JEAN DE BLOCK TRANSLATED BY R. C. LONG, AND WITH A CONVERSATION WITH THE AUTHOR BY W. T. STEAD, AND AN INTRODUCTION BY EDWIN D. MEAD BOSTON THE WORLD PEACE FOUNDATION 1914 COPYRIGHT, i899, BY DOUBLEDAY & McCLURE CO. 514.10 tgfre fltfrcnaeum $£*** GINN & COMPANY~*PRO. PRIETORS . BOSTON • U.S.A. CONTENTS PAGE INTRODUCTION, BY EDWIN D. MEAD. CONVERSATIONS WITH THE AUTHOR, BY W. T. STEAD vii AUTHOR'S PREFACE . biiii PART I MILITARY AND NAVAL DEVELOPMENTS CHAP. PAGE I. How WAR WILL BE WAGED ON LAND . 3 II. PLANS OF CAMPAIGN : POSSIBLE AND IMPOSSIBLE 63 III. THE FUTURE OF NAVAL WARFARE. 93 IV. DOES RUSSIA NEED A NAVY? . 113 V. WHAT WARS HAVE COST IN THE NINETEENTH CENTURY 128 "g VI. WHAT THEY WILL COST IN THE FUTURE . 140 <D § VII. THE CARE OF THE WOUNDED ... 146 CD CONTENTS PART II ECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES IN TIME OF WAR CHAP. PAGE I. IN RUSSIA . „ .163 II. IN BRITAIN . 0 . .251 III. IN GERMANY 266 IV. IN FRANCE 277 V. EFFECT OF WAR ON THE VITAL NEEDS OF PEOPLES 294 VI. PROBABLE LOSSES IN FUTURE WARS . 319 VII. MILITARISM AND ITS NEMESIS . ­ 347 LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS Map of Russian Defensive System . 74 Map of Paths of Advance of the Austro-German Armies from Points of Concentration to the Vistula-Bug-Narev Theatre of War 77 Map of Paths of Advance of the German and Austrian Armies on the Vistula-Bug-Narev Theatre of War, from Pierron and Brailmont . 78 Plan of Invasion by Russia of Prussian Territory . 89 Diagram of Expenditure on the Crimean War 129 Diagram of Expenditure on the War of 1859 . 130 Diagram of Expenditure by Russia on the War of 1877-78 . 131 Diagram of Expenditure of Europe on War in the second half of the Nineteenth Century 132 Diagram of Increase per cent, of Military Expenditure between 1874 and 1896 134 Diagrams of Probable Daily Expenditure on a Future War 142-144 Diagram of Percentage Distribution of the Revenues . 145 Diagram of Result of Firing from an u-mil. Rifle . 149-150 Plate showing effect of a Bullet fired from a distance of 3500 metres on the Human Tibia, and on the Bone of an Ox . 153 Diagram showing Depreciation of Russian Securities at the Out­ break of War 168 Plan showing Expenditure by Russia, per Inhabitant, on Army and Navy 170 Diagram of Russian Exports and Imports (1889-94) . , . 172 Diagram of Percentage of Russian Export to Production (1890-94) 175 Plan of Russian Grain Production per Inhabitant . 176 Diagram of Classification of Russian Imports . .17 8 Plan of Russian Commercial Undertakings in 1892, per 100,000 of the Population . .180 Plan of Russian Expenditure on Posts and Telegraphs per In­ habitant 181 Plan of Output of Russian Factories 183 Diagram of Percentage Comparison of Wages in Russia, Great Britain, and North America 186 LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS PAGE Plan of Percentage Growth of Russian Population between 1885 and 1897 189 Plan of Average Number of Houses in a Russian Settlement . 191 Plan of Average Value of one Property destroyed by Fire in Russia, between 1860-87 194 Plan of Average Losses by Fire in Russia per 100 Inhabitants (1860-68) 195 Plan of Number of Large Cattle in Russia, per 1000 desaytins (1888) 199 Plan of Comparative Yields of Agricultural Countries of Europe 200 Plan of Comparative Number of Large Cattle in Agricultural Countries of Europe 201 Diagram of Russian Harvest in 1893 205 Diagram of Growth of the Orthodox Population in Russia, and the General Population of other Countries, per 1000 . 207 Diagram of the Number of Marriages, per 1000, of the Population of the Countries of Europe 208 Diagram of the Number of Births, per 1000, of the Population of the Countries of Europ. e . 208 Diagram of the Mortality, per 1000, of the Population of the Countries of Europe 209 Diagram of Percentage Mortality of Children under one year, in the Countries of Europe . .. 210 Diagram of the Number of Survivors out of 1000 Children born at all ages up to 75 212 Diagram of the Value of Human Life at Various Ages . .21 4 Plan of Outlay on Instruction in Russia in 1887, per Inhabitant. 215 Diagram of Percentage of Illiterates accepted for Military Ser­ vice in chief European Countries 217 Diagrams showing Number of Students in Higher and Interme­ diate Russian Educational Institutions, per 100,000 of the Population 218-219 Diagram of Number of Doctors in European Countries, per 100,000 of the Population . 220 Diagram of Number of Quadratic Kilometres for every Doctor . 221 Plan of Outlay on Medicine in Russia, per Inhabitant . 222 Plan of Number of Deaths from Typhus in Russia, per 1000 Cases 224 Diagram of Number of Illegitimates in 1000 Births, in chief European Countries 225 Diagram of Number of Suicides per 100,000 of the Population, in chief European Countries 226 Diagram of Consumption of Spirits per 100 of the Population, in chief European Countries, in 1868 and 1888 . 229 Diagram of Number of Deaths from Drunkenness per Million of the Population, in chief European Countries . 230 Diagram of Average Number of Convictions per 200,000 of the Population of Russia 231 LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS PAGB Diagrams of Numbers of Various Classes condemned for Murder per Million of the corresponding Population in chief Euro­ pean Countries . 232 Diagrams of Numbers of Various Classes convicted for Theft per Million of the corresponding Population in rfrfcf Euro- pean Countries 233 Diagrams of Numbers convicted for Highway Robbery per Mil­ lion of the corresponding Population in chief European Countries ......... 234 Diagrams of Numbers convicted for Swindling per MitSon of the corresponding Population, in chief European Comories . 235 Diagram of Percentage Relation of Men and Women convicted in chief European Countries 236 Diagram of Percentage Increase in Russia in the Fibeen Chief Forms of Crime 236 Diagram of Number of Convictions in Great Britain per 100,000 of the Population . * . ... 237 Diagram of Comparative Convictions in France and Aostria . 237 Diagram of Number of Convictions per 100,000 of Pomlation hi Germany I . 238 Plan of Expenditure on Justice and Prisons in Russia per Inha- bitant 239 Plan of Percentage of Grown Horses in Russia . ­ . 241 Plan of Amount of Production of Iron and Steel in Risaa. 243 Diagram of Number of Native and Imported Cattle in England . 256 Diagram of Classification by Occupation of 1000 of the Popula- of Great Britain . , ... 259 Diagram of Distribution of the Income of the Population of Eng- land 260 Diagram of State of Savings in Great Britain in 1895 - - • 25i Diagram of Expenditure of England on Armed Forces bet\veen 1864 and 1895 264 Diagram of Classification of Workers in Germany according to Wages 273 Diagram of Emigration from Germany to America (1591-1894) . 274 Diagram of Value of Foreign Securities stamped in Germany . 276 Diagram of French Imports and Exports (1860-1894;. 278 Diagram of French Trade (1860-1894) 279 Diagram of French Trade (1883-1894) .... 280, 281 Diagram of French Revenue and Expenditure (1861-3593) . 281 Diagram of French Debt (1852-1895) 282 Diagram of French Savings (1869-1895) 282 Diagram of Average Value of Properties, in Francs, rassing by Legac. y . J .. 283 Diagram of the Distribution of the French Population according to Occupation in 1886 284 LIST OF MAPS AND DIAGRAMS PAGE Diagram of Assistance given to the Poor in France in 1889 . 288 Diagram of Number of Old Men and Children in Percentage Relation to Population in chief European Countries . 289 Diagram of Number of Bachelors in Percentage Relation to Population in chief European Countries ... 290 Diagram of Increase or Decrease of the Population in France and Germany per 1000 . .291 Diagram of Number of Population in chief European Countries in 1788 and 1888 in Millions ...... 292 Diagram of Value by Growth of Population in France and Ger- many, from 1788 to 1888 . 293 Diagram showing the Number of Days on which Food would be Lacking in Time of War in chief European Counties . 296 Diagram showing the Number of Days on which Oats would be Lacking in time of War in chief European Countries . 298 Diagram of Superfluity or Deficiency of Meat in chief European Countries . '* . 304 Diagram of Superfluity or Deficiency of Salt in chief European Countries 305 Diagram of Superfluity or Deficiency of Kerosene in chief European Countries ....... 306 Diagram of Superfluity or Deficiency of Stone Coal in chief European Countries 306 Chart showing Comparative Development of Socialists and Free- thinkers in Germany according to the Elections of 1891 . 312 Diagram of Percentage of Horses which would be taken for Military Purposes in chief European Countries . 316 Diagram showing Amount of Living Force of a Bullet . 320 Diagram showing Penetrative Power of the Mauser Bullet on Numbers o f Horses' Carcases ..... 321 Diagram of Rotation and Weight of Bullets of various Rifles . 322 Diagram of Zone of Effective Fire against Infantry by Chassepot and Mannlicher Rifles respectively 323 Diagram of Breadth of Zone of Effective Fire against Cavalry by the Chassepot and Mannlicher Rifles respectively . 324 Diagram of Distance of Useful Fire . 325 Diagrams of Percentage 01 Hits in Fire at One Infantryman by French and German Soldiers . > . 326-327 Diagram of the Deviation of the Paskevitch Instrument . 327 Diagram of the Number of Cartridges Carried by One Soldier with Different Rifles . , . .328 Diagram of Number of Sappers to 100 Infantrymen in Various European Countries 333 Diagram of Losses in the German Army in the War of 1870 .