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Morning Briefing kfpoefkepokfopekfopokeowpfk MasterLink Securities Taiwan Equity Insight Date: Morning Briefing Dec. 29, 2009 Previous day close: TWSE Index 8,057.49 OTC Index 144.00 NTD/USD* 32.295 There is only 3 trading days left in 2009 and we remain optimistic toward TAIEX due to window-dressing House by ITC and groups as QFII kept buying lately, index maybe keep going up slightly as long as daily volume View is less than NT$180bn and moderate increase on long-margin. Looking into sector, we are remain bullish view on DRAM, panel and LED. We like Epistar (2448 TT), Innolux (3481 TT), Novatek (3034 TT), Inotera (3474 TT). As to non tech, sector rotated into construction, asset plays and financials. We prefer asset and financial at this level and suggest to pay attention on asset and financial instead of construction, we like Taiwan Fertilizer (1722 TT), Fubon (2881 TT), Yuanta FHC (2885 TT) and Shin Kong FHC (2888 TT). SKFH Company • Yulon Motor (2201 TT): Maintain BUY recommendation Updates - MasterLink Research keeps optimistic on Yulon's Luxgen brand which came to the market 4 months ago and in line with robust demand, has decided to add 200 workers contrary to most global carmakers' lay-off trend. - Luxgen has been welcomed not only in Taiwan but also in the Middle East and although the company is still below breakeven point, we believe the current turnaround in the economy will eventually lift the auto market in Taiwan as we saw in previous recovery cycles (1991 ~ 2002). - ECFA will indeed benefit Yulon Motor as we may see Chinese auto maker DFM placing ODM orders in Taiwan and maybe Yulon directly selling cars in Mainland China. - Luxgen brand also plans to launch an EV model in Q3-2010 especially for Middle East and Mainland China. - Yulon has also valuable land assets that provide the stock a premium that we can't ignore given the current favorable environment. - We estimate Yulon will deliver NT$ 1.51in 2009 and maintain our BUY rating and TP of NT$ 51.0 • Simplo (6121 TT): Reiterate TRADING BUY - Media speculates today that Simplo and peer Dynapack (3211 TT) will be key battery suppliers of Apple's highly-expected tablet PC although both firms have a policy of not commenting market rumors. - MasterLink Research remains positive on Simplo that although Apple maintains high confidentiality, Simplo should indeed have good chances to participate in such project given its superior quality, economies of scale and close relationship with global hardware makers. - We remain optimistic on NB growth for 2010 and therefore, Simplo should continue having the upper hand on the NB battery pack market. Plus, EV market exposure should be an important catalyst for the company in the long-term as China's subsidy policy may indeed boost the market in coming years. - We forecast 2009 EPS of NT$ 10.62 and NT$ 12.95 for 2010 and maintain our NT$ 195.0 TP. • Cheng Shin Rubber (2105 TT): Keep TRADING BUY rating - As rubber and tire markets maintain momentum, MasterLink Research believes Cheng Shin will indeed keeps its GM above ~20%. - Tire maker Nankang (2101 TT) has announced higher tire ASPs for all models ranging from 6% ~ 16% while Bridgestone has increased tire prices in the US around 5% as raw material prices increased previously as well. - We foresee Cheng Shin's ASPs upgrades in 2010 in installments and although Q4-2009 and Q1-2010 could see some revenue weakness, we remain more optimistic than the Street on next year's earnings growth as we estimate NT$ 8.19 EPS for 2009 and NT$ 8.72 for 2010. Thus, we maintain our TRADING BUY rating. Dec 29, 2009 Bloomberg: MLKS <GO> Page 1 of 2 MasterLink Securities Morning Briefing SKFH News Tech • Prime View (8069 TT) will cooperate with LGD for e-paper, LGD will invest in Prime View US$ 30.50 mn, dual side will enhance the relationship for technology, capacity, capital and procurement. • Cyntec (2452 TT) will acquire Apple iTablet passive component order, Cyntec is the main source for 80% supply; meanwhile, Taiflex (8039 TT) is also main source to supply FCCL, market expects rev will grow 30% YoY in 2010. • Realtek (2379 TT) anticipates rev QoQ in Jan 2010 will grow in two-digital, the firm also emphasizes inventory of 802.11n chip keeps healthy level and no shortage concern. • Gemtek (4906 TT) announced yesterday to ally with On-Ramp Wireless to produce Ultra-Link Processing (ULP) which relates to smart grid concept, market expects the comp. can get the order from North America. • Yageo (2327 TT) plans to enhance capacity up to 20% in 1H2010 to compete other Japan and Korea peers, as long as growth of NB, mobile and TV are in line with expectation say 20% YoY in 2010, additional capacity will be digested well. • Asustek (2357 TT) announced is going to simplify the division of Asustek and Pegatron, which is expected to be listed on same day. Hynix announced to revise up capex of 2010 to US$1.27bn from US$0.7bn, which is closed to Inotera's • (3474 TT) level of US$1.385bn, being the 3rd largest capex among DRAM makers after Samsung and Inotera. Non-Tech • TYC (1522 TT) announced the first 11 months before-tax EPS NT$ 1.92, the com. indicates there is storm in US and Euro market now increasing demand and anticipates high season will expend into 1Q2010. SKFH FINI Sales Trading Desk Disclaimers Contact The information presented in this report is provided for information purposes ONLY and is not us to be considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy for securities or Jasmine Tseng other financial instruments. This Morning Briefing report is not research. This Street View [email protected] report is issued by MasterLink Securities to professional institutional investors only and ultimately to serve as reference only. MasterLink Securities will not treat recipients as its [email protected] customers by virtue of their receiving the report. MasterLink Securities does not provide individually tailored investment advice. MasterLink Securities believes the information and opinions of this report are accurate and complete. Information presented in this papert were obtained or derived from sources MasterLink Securities believes are reliable, but MasterLink Tinging Hsieh Securities make no representations as to their accuracy or completeness. MasterLink [email protected] Securities accepts no liability for loss arising from the use of the material presented in this report. MasterLink Securities is under no obligation to ensure that such other reports are [email protected] brought to the attention of any recipient of this report. The author certifies that no part of his / her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific view(s) expressed in this report. Data and views presented in this document have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other MasterLink Securities’ Jair Sossa, IMC business areas, including investment banking, derivatives, fixed income [email protected] personnel.MasterLink Securities is involved in many businesses that relate to companies mentioned in this report. These businesses include specialized trading and other financial [email protected] services. MasterLink Securities may engage in securities transactions in a manner inconsistent with the statements present in this report.Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment at its original date of publication by MasterLink Securities and are subject to change without notice. If this report is being distributed by a financial institution other than MasterLink Securities that financial institution is solely responsible for distribution. Clients of that institution should contact that institution to effect a transaction in the securities mentioned in this report or require further information. This report does not constitute investment advice by MasterLink Securities to the clients of the distributing financial institution, and neither MasterLink Securities and their respective officers, directors and employees accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from their use of this report or its content. Copyright 2009. MasterLink Securities Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Dec 29, 2009 Bloomberg: MLKS <GO> Page 2 of 2 .
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