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Crime Rates in Western and Northern Cape Provinces

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Crime Rates in Western and Northern Cape Provinces WHAT’S UP IN THE CAPE? Crime rates in Western and Northern Cape provinces Ted Leggett, Institute for Security Studies [email protected] According to the official crime statistics, the Western Cape has emerged as the country’s most crime-ridden province, and the Northern Cape as the most violent. This is confusing for criminologists who link crime to poverty, because these are two of the best developed provinces in the country, with the highest employment levels. Explaining crime in these provinces requires further research on the people and conditions in the area. nlike previous reports, the 2002/3 South reporting are high in a province, this could make African Police Service (SAPS) Annual the area look more crime-ridden than it actually is. UReport and accompanying statistics did not make direct comparisons of provincial crime rates. But the 1998 National Victims of Crime survey did A quick look at these figures shows stark disparities not find particularly high levels of reporting in the between the provinces, with the Western Cape Western or Northern Cape. While reporting rates for having four and a half times more recorded crime robbery were unusually high in the Northern Cape, than Limpopo. While this difference may be due in they were unusually low in the Western Cape. part to reporting rates, the divergence in crime Assault and burglary reporting rates were close to profiles is so striking that it calls out for further average in both provinces (Figure 2). Thus, the fact discussion. that these two provinces have relatively high recorded crime rates needs to be taken seriously. According to the official statistics, the Western Cape has by far the worst overall crime problem in the Violent crimes country (Figure 1) and in many crime categories, the The Western Cape has by far the nation’s highest fastest growing crime problem (Table 1). The rate of murder: 85 murders per 100,000 citizens in Northern Cape has the highest rate of violent crime. 2002/3. By comparison, second place Gauteng had Between the two of them, these provinces have the 59 murders per 100,000, and the national average worst crime rates in the country in 17 of the 22 was 47. Murder is the most accurate gauge of the serious crime categories tracked by the SAPS. violent crime situation, as it is more likely to come to the attention of the police than other violent Relying on the official crime statistics is crimes. This means that very few murders remain problematic, especially for violent crimes, because unrecorded. of under-reporting. Many people do not report the crimes they experience to the police, for reasons While the decline of political violence has caused ranging from inconvenience to mistrust. If rates of drastic reductions in killings in Gauteng, KwaZulu- SA CRIME QUARTERLY No 7 MARCH 2004 15 Figure 1: Crime rates by province, 2002/3 Limpopo 1,014 1,297 138 Eastern Cape 1,509 2,465 280 KwaZulu-Natal 1,584 2,857 294 North West 1,872 2,827 288 Mpumalanga 1,717 3,181 215 RSA average 2,022 3,611 342 Free State 2,136 3,656 465 Northern Cape 3,433 4,640 778 Gauteng 3,037 5,727 352 Western Cape 3,250 7,013 776 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 Crimes per 100,000 Violent Property Other Source: SAPS Crime Information Analysis Centre Natal and the Eastern Cape since 1994, murder In addition, the Western Cape boasts the country’s levels have actually increased in Western Cape. highest levels of common and indecent assault, as Indeed, it is the only province that has more well as common (but not aggravated) robbery. And murders today than it did in 1994 (Figure 3). The aside from the violence, the province also suffers data of the National Injury Mortality Surveillance from the highest overall rates of property crime. System (NIMSS) show that the Western Cape is the only province in which the majority of non-natural But according to the recorded crime statistics, it is deaths are due to murder.1 residents of the Northern Cape, not the Western Cape, who are at the greatest risk of falling victim to violent crime. The Northern Cape has the highest Table 1: Changes in numbers of recorded crimes rates of reported attempted murder, assault with the between 1994/5 and 2002/3 intent to inflict grievous bodily harm (GBH), rape, and child abuse. The rate of assault GBH in the Western South Northern Cape is more than twice that of any other Cape Africa province besides the Western Cape, and the Murder +34% -17% province also comes second to the Western Cape in many other crime categories. Figure 4 illustrates the Aggravated robbery +121% +50% provincial rates of total recorded assaults, including both common assault and assault GBH. Carjacking +254% +14% Theft of motor vehicle +56% -12% But if the Northern Cape has the most violence per capita, why does the Western Cape have the Source: SAPS Crime Information Analysis Centre country’s highest rate of murder? This puzzle could be explained by the proliferation of firearms in the 16 LEGGETT SA CRIME QUARTERLY No 7 MARCH 2004 Figure 2: Reporting rates by province 90 84 80 79 80 75 71 70 69 60 57 56 55 50 50 50 46 43 4443 44 40 39 40 40 40 3837 31 30 28 25 24 21 % of victims reporting to police 20 10 0 Eastern Free GautengKwaZulu- Mpuma- North Northern Limpopo Western Cape State Natal langa West Cape Cape Robbery Assault Burglary Source: Stats SA, 1998 Figure 3: Change in recorded murder rates between 1994/5 and 2002/3, by province 120 100 96 84 85 80 76 70 72 67 60 58 59 51 47 47 49 Murders per 100,000 40 38 38 31 33 33 22 20 12 0 Limpopo North Mpumalanga Free Eastern RSA Northern KwaZulu- Gauteng Western West State Cape average Cape Natal Cape 1994/5 2002/3 Source: SAPS Crime Information Analysis Centre SA CRIME QUARTERLY No 7 MARCH 2004 LEGGETT 17 Figure 4: Recorded total assault rates, by province 3,000 2,508 2,500 2,032 2,000 1,530 1,572 1,500 1,208 1,219 1,102 990 1,000 808 724 Number of assaults per 100,000 500 0 Limpopo KwaZulu- Eastern Mpuma- RSA North Gauteng Free Western Northern Natal Cape langa average West State Cape Cape Source: SAPS Crime Information Analysis Centre Western Cape. The Western Cape has the highest rate aggravated (which generally means armed) robbery in of recorded cases of illegal possession of a firearm or the country, just slightly over that of Limpopo. But ammunition, while the Northern Cape has the lowest oddly, levels of aggravated robbery in the Western rate, second only to Limpopo. While finding firearms Cape remain less than half those in Gauteng, despite generally requires proactive work on the part of the the fact that common robbery is most likely in the police, there is no reason to believe that the Western Western Cape. This may be due in part to the fact Cape is unusually diligent in this regard or that the that Gauteng is still home of the heist, with more of Northern Cape police are particularly negligent. the syndicate-type robberies such as hijackings, bank- related robberies, and home and business robberies. This conclusion is backed up by NIMSS data. In the Western Cape, firearms are the preferred murder Property crimes weapon, with 46% of homicides captured by the Aside from the violence, the Western Cape also has a system caused by firearms. In the Northern Cape problem with property crime, including coming first only 12% of the homicides captured were caused by in the rates of commercial burglary, residential firearms, with the primary cause being stabbings burglary, theft from vehicle, common theft, and (64%).2 malicious damage to property. Apart from coming second or third in many of these categories, the More lethal weapons could be the reason why Northern Cape is tops for shoplifting, stock theft, and Western Cape killers succeed more often than arson. Oftentimes, the rate of these crimes is far in would-be killers in the Northern Cape. Calculating excess of most other provinces. For example, the rate the number of murders as a percentage of both of theft from vehicles in the Western Cape is ten murders and attempted murders for each province times that of Limpopo, and more than double that of reveals that only 19% of murders attempted in the any other province besides Gauteng. Northern Cape in 2002/3 ‘succeeded’, whereas 43% of those attempted in the Western Cape were In addition to aggravated robbery, however, Gauteng ‘successful’. remains tops for vehicular theft and fraud by quite a wide margin. Vehicular theft, like hijacking, is often In keeping with the low levels of gun crime, the conducted by organised syndicates, which may be Northern Cape also has the second lowest rate of better developed in Gauteng. The greater proximity of 18 LEGGETT SA CRIME QUARTERLY No 7 MARCH 2004 Gauteng to the border and commercial interests may migration in the country between 1992 and 1996, also contribute to the prevalence of vehicular crime second only to Gauteng, with many migrants in the area. Fraud, of course, is often related to coming from the impoverished Eastern Cape.7 business interests, and Johannesburg’s continued role as the financial centre of the country probably leaves While the Northern Cape contains vast rural spaces, it more vulnerable.
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