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Total Bangun Persada (TOTL) Is Bound to Become One of the Main Beneficiaries of +6221 5296 9488 Improvement in Property Industry Which We Believe Has Hit Rock Bottom

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Total Bangun Persada (TOTL) Is Bound to Become One of the Main Beneficiaries of +6221 5296 9488 Improvement in Property Industry Which We Believe Has Hit Rock Bottom FOCUS | XXX FOCUSCompany Update | | XXTotal XXXXX 2013 Bangun Persada Initiating Coverage | 10 January 2017 Mandiri Sekuritas Analyst Cementing a Solid Foothold Gerry Harlan Total Bangun Persada (TOTL) is bound to become one of the main beneficiaries of +6221 5296 9488 improvement in property industry which we believe has hit rock bottom. This would be [email protected] supported by formidable tender-winning rate, strong balance sheet profile, and resilient Bob Setiadi profitability. TOTL is currently trading at an attractive 9x 2017F PER. Initiate with a BUY call +6221 5296 9543 and TP of Rp1,040, offering 32% potential upside. [email protected] The big name in the game. With over 800 new contracts target of Rp4tn is prestigious building projects under its belt, achievable. Sector : Construction TOTL perseveres to be one of the most Second to none. TOTL has proven itself as preferred contractors by major developers, one of the few companies with a strong as shown by 39-61% tender-winning rate track record of profitability and solid over the past five years. Going forward, we BUY earnings growth for the future. For the believe this favorability would be put to Current Price Rp785 period of 2011 – 9M16, the company good use and we expect TOTL’s new Price Target Rp1,040 (+32.5%) delivered the highest average net profit contract to grow by 27% CAGR 2015-18F 52-wk range Rp920 - Rp545 margin (8.5% vs. peers’ 6.5%) among three (2017F: Rp4tn, 2018F: Rp4.5tn). This would other major private contractors (ACST, in turn drive the company’s revenue to JKON, NRCA) while maintaining low net grow by 14% CAGR 2015-18F (2017F: Stock Data profit margin volatility and conservative Rp2.9tn, 2018F: Rp3.4tn). Bloomberg Code TOTL IJ balance sheet profile. Going forward, we Mkt.Cap (Rp bn/US$ mn) 2,643 / 198 The home straight. We believe that expect TOTL’s gross profit margin to Issued Shares (mn) 3,410 favorable monetary & fiscal regulations, as normalize to 17.8-18.2% in 2017-18F with Avg. Daily T/O (Rp bn/US$ mn) 3.6/0.3 well as tax amnesty program, would help 8.4-8.5% net profit margin in 2017-18F. to nurture property demand in upcoming BUY with TP of Rp1,040. For the years. Based on Colliers’ 9M16 property Major shareholder valuation, we impute 14x 2017F PER (equal data, we estimate that approximately to 4-year PER average) vs. current PT Total Inti Persada 56.5% Rp14tn worth of office, apartment, and valuation of 9x 2017F PER on the Founders 9.8% shopping center projects are currently in Public 33.7% expectation of property industry recovery. the pipeline and might start the bidding process in 2017F, of which TOTL’s repeat Risks to our call: 1) Delay in property EPS consensus customers contributed approximately recovery; 2) Slower than expected revenue Rp8tn worth of projects. Therefore, we recognition; 3) Tight competition among Mansek Cons Diff believe that our and management’s 2017F private contractors. 2016F 61.7 66.9 (7.7) 2017F 72.4 83.9 (13.7) FINANCIAL SUMMARY 2018F 82.6 96.4 (14.3) YE Dec (Rp Bn) 2014A 2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F EBITDA 186 250 307 362 406 Share price performance Net Profit 165 191 210 247 282 Fully-diluted EPS (Rp) 48 56 62 72 83 3m 6m 12m Fully-diluted EPS growth (%) (14.9) 15.8 9.9 17.4 14.1 Absolute (%) (1.3) 2.0 25.0 P/E Ratio (x) 16.0 13.8 12.6 10.7 9.4 Relative to JCI (%) (0.1) (5.0) 8.1 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.1 7.9 7.0 5.8 4.9 P/B Ratio (x) 3.4 3.1 2.8 2.5 2.2 Dividend Yield (%) 4.5 3.9 4.0 4.7 5.3 ROAE (%) 22.1 23.7 23.3 24.3 24.5 Source: Company (2014-2015), Mandiri Sekuritas (2016-2018) Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 1 of 23 FOCUS | Total Bangun Persada Company Update | 10 January 2017 TOTL - At a Glance FIGURE 1. REVENUE BREAKDOWN (2015) FIGURE 2. MARGIN COMPARISON 20% Property Rental Equipment Rental 19.0% 18.9% 18.7% 0% 1% 18.2% 17.8% 18% 16% 14.6% 15.1% 14% 11.6% 11.4% 12% 11.2% 11.0% 10.3% 10.1% 10% 8.5% 9.6% 8% 8.5% 8.4% 8.6% 8.5% 8.4% Construction 7.8% 99% 6% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F Gross Profit Margin EBIT Margin Net Profit Margin Source: Company Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates FIGURE 3. ROA AND ROE FIGURE 4. PEERS ROE AND PER COMPARISON (2017) 30% (ROE) 30% 28% 25% 27% 26% TOTL 25% 25% 24% 25% 20% 22% 20% PTPP 15% 15% WSKT 10% ACST WIKA 10% ADHI 8.9% 9.1% 7.6% 7.9% 8.0% 5% 7.0% 7.2% NRCA 5% 0% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F 0% (PER) 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 ROA ROE Source: Company Source: Bloomberg, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates FIGURE 5. EPS GROWTH TREND FIGURE 6. LEVERAGE TREND (Rp) (%) (%) (x) 90 250 0 2,500 80 200 (20) 70 2,000 60 150 (40) 1,500 50 100 (60) 40 1,000 30 50 (80) 20 0 (100) 500 10 0 (50) (120) 0 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 EPS EPS Growth [RHS] Net Debt/Equity (NDE) Interest Cover [RHS] Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Source: Company, Mandiri Sekuritas estimates Please see important disclosure at the back of this report Page 2 of 23 FOCUS | Total Bangun Persada Company Update | 10 January 2017 Valuation We initiate our coverage on TOTL with a BUY rating, supported by strong reputation as shown by the company’s formidable tender-winning rate (39-61%), property industry recovery on the back of favorable government regulation & tax amnesty program, and solid profitability resilience amid economic slowdown. Priced at a bargain. The stock is currently trading at 9x of 2017 PER, a tad below the weighted average of private construction peers’ 2017F PER (10x) and -1 standard deviation of the 4-year PER band. For valuation, we use 2017F PER of 14x (equals to TOTL’s 4-year average PER) on the expectation of property industry recovery with 2017F EPS of Rp72. This translates to a Target Price of Rp1,040, offering 32% potential upside from January 10th 2017's closing price of Rp785. FIGURE 7. PEER VALUATION Market cap PE PBV ROAE EV/EBITDA EPS Gr (%) BBG Code Peers company Price (RpBn) 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F 2016F 2017F Construction peers - Consensus PTPP IJ Equity Pembangunan Perumahan 3,760 23,322 20.3 16.4 2.8 2.5 17.8 19.3 12.0 9.5 27.2 24.3 WSKT IJ Equity Waskita Karya 2,580 35,020 21.0 16.7 2.6 2.2 14.5 15.6 15.5 11.7 36.0 26.2 WIKA IJ Equity Wijaya Karya 2,530 22,694 23.9 18.5 1.9 1.9 11.1 12.1 13.6 10.1 12.3 29.4 ADHI IJ Equity Adhi Karya 2,240 7,976 20.4 12.4 1.4 1.3 7.5 10.7 9.9 6.2 -45.9 64.4 Weighted average - Indonesia construction 21.5 16.7 2.4 2.1 13.9 15.3 13.6 10.2 20.3 29.9 Private construction peers TOTL IJ Equity Total Bangun Persada 785 2,677 11.7 9.4 2.8 2.4 24.1 26.5 7.0 6.0 19.2 25.4 ACST IJ Equity Acset Indonusa 2,850 1,995 17.5 12.4 1.4 1.3 9.5 11.7 7.8 6.0 103.2 41.1 NRCA IJ Equity Nusa Raya Cipta 386 964 10.5 10.6 0.9 0.8 8.7 7.6 3.3 3.1 -54.1 -1.2 Weighted average - Private construction peers 13.6 10.7 2.0 1.8 16.3 18.0 6.7 5.5 36.4 26.4 Source: Bloomberg as of January 10th, 2017 FIGURE 8. TOTL PER BAND FIGURE 9. PRIVATE CONTRACTORS PER BAND PE (x) 35 25 +2 StDev 30 20 25 +2 StDev +1 StDev 20 +1 StDev 15 Mean 15 Mean 10 -1 StDev -1 StDev 10 -2 StDev -2 StDev 5 5 0 0 Jul-14 Jul-15 -13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Apr-16 Sep-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Mar-15 Dec-15 Dec-16 Nov-14 Aug-16 y Jul-15 Jul-13 Jan-16 Jan-14 Oct-16 Jun-14 Oct-14 Apr-15 Feb-15 Sep-15 Feb-13 Sep-13 Mar-16 Mar-14 Dec-16 Dec-14 Dec-12 Nov-15 Nov-13 Aug-16 Aug-14 May-16 Ma Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Sensitivity analysis. We conducted a sensitivity analysis on TOTL’s target price with 2017F new contract and burn rate as the parameters. For the base scenario, we use 29% contract burn-rate (equals to 3-year average burn-rate) and Rp4tn 2017F new contracts (in-line with the management’s guidance).
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