Schizophrenia Bulletin vol. 41 no. 2 pp. 471–482, 2015 doi:10.1093/schbul/sbu078 Advance Access publication June 9, 2014 Detecting the Psychosis Prodrome Across High-Risk Populations Using Neuroanatomical Biomarkers Nikolaos Koutsouleris*,1, Anita Riecher-Rössler2,4, Eva M. Meisenzahl1, Renata Smieskova2, Erich Studerus2, Lana Kambeitz-Ilankovic1, Sebastian von Saldern1, Carlos Cabral1, Maximilian Reiser3, Peter Falkai1, and Stefan Borgwardt2 1Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany; 2Department of Psychiatry, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland; 3Department of Radiology, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Munich, Germany 4This author contributed equally to this article. *To whom correspondence should be addressed; Department of Psychiatry and Psychotherapy, Ludwig-Maximilian-University, Nussbaumstr. 7, 80336 Munich, Germany; tel: +49-89-4400-55885, fax: +49-89-4400-55776, e-mail:
[email protected] To date, the MRI-based individualized prediction of psy- Key words: neuroanatomical biomarker/individualized chosis has only been demonstrated in single-site studies. It risk stratification/cross-center/machine learning remains unclear if MRI biomarkers generalize across dif- ferent centers and MR scanners and represent accurate sur- Introduction rogates of the risk for developing this devastating illness. Therefore, we assessed whether a MRI-based prediction Two decades of early recognition research revealed system identified patients with a later disease transition that patterns of subtle prodromal symptoms allow per- among 73 clinically defined high-risk persons recruited at sons with at-risk mental states (ARMS) for psychoses two different early recognition centers. Prognostic per- to be reliably identified using clinical high-risk criteria. formance was measured using cross-validation, indepen- Compared to the general population, these persons have dent test validation, and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis.