Hover here to view any country-specific adjustments

Choose country from the dropdown list to customise view Country BULGARIA

14.2bn 0.5bn 3.7% €59m (BGN116m)

cigarettes consumed 0.2bn on 2017 C&C cigarettes consumed -0.3bn on 2017 of total consumption was C&C -2.2%pts on 2017 total tax revenue lost from C&C -30m on 2017 C&C continued to fall in Bulgaria, continuing the long term declining trend, Bulgaria became a net outflow market in for the first time in 2018. C&C consumption was higher in regions on western Bulgarian border, reaching 3.7% of total consumption in 2018. indicating that the largest illicit flows may be entering from North Duty free labelled products and Illicit Whites were the main sources for Macedonia and Serbia. Total consumption increased in 2018 by 2% despite declining inflows in 2018. The Bulgarian Government's commitment to fighting illicit non-domestic volumes, as legal domestic consumption increased. This trade and increased law enforcement efforts are understood to be a key indicated consumers are switching back to domestic cigarettes, and may driver in the reduction in non-domestic inflows, including a 67% reduction also be switching to manufactured cigarettes from other tobacco products. in Duty Free labelled cigarettes, many of which were illicit whites, in 2018.

Total consumption, 2014-18 (bn cigarettes) Manufactured cigarette C&C volumes and share of overall C&C breakdown by type, 2014-2018 (bn cigarettes) cigarette consumption, 2014-2018

18.5% 14.3 14.4 13.9 14.2 ) 2.5 13.5 1.0 0.5 s 0.0 0.8 0.2 e n 1.7 0.2 t

0.2 t 0.1 2.0 15.0% o i

2.5 e t r p 0.1 a 11.6% 1.3 g

m 1.7 i u c 0.1

s

n 10.0% 2.5 n b o ( 6.8%

13.2 12.9 13.4 c 0.9 1.0 12.6 1.0

e 5.9% 10.9 f 0.0 0.8

1.7 o m 3.7% 0.0 u 5.0% 0.4 l 0.5 % 1.2 0.4 o 1.0 0.8 0.0 V 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0% 0.4 0.2 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Counterfeit & Contraband (C&C) C&C as a % of consumption Counterfeit Illicit Whites Other C&C

Sources: KPMG EU flows model 2014-2018; travel data taken from World Travel Organisation statistics

© 2019 KPMG LLP, a UK limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. The KPMG name and logo are registered trademarks or trademarks of KPMG International. Hover here to view any BULGARIA country-specific adjustments

Choose country and flow type from the dropdown list to customise view Country BULGARIA

Key Inflows and Outflows from BULGARIA, 2018 (bn cigarettes) Breakdown of Total Consumption, 2014-2018 (bn cigarettes)

Weighted average price in BULGARIA: €2.68 (BGN5.24) (5.04% change from 2017) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Legal Domestic Sales (LDS) 11.34 13.16 13.83 13.71 14.34 Outflows -0.41 -0.61 -0.64 -0.79 -0.93 Legal Domestic Consumption (LDC) 10.93 12.55 13.19 12.91 13.42 Non-Domestic Legal (ND(L)) 0.07 0.06 0.18 0.19 0.23 Counterfeit & Contraband (C&C) 2.50 1.66 0.98 0.82 0.52 Total Non-Domestic 2.57 1.72 1.16 1.02 0.75 Total Consumption 13.50 14.27 14.36 13.93 14.17

Total inflows by country, 2014-2018 (bn cigarettes) UK €8.83 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 IWs with no country-specific labelling IWs with no country-specific labelling 1.28 0.82 0.36 0.36 0.40 Duty Free Labelled 0.90 0.42 0.34 0.37 0.16 France The Republic Of North Macedonia 0.03 0.13 0.16 0.06 0.06 €7.78 Serbia 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.03 €1.74 Serbia 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 Other 0.29 0.32 0.26 0.19 0.08 Greece Total Inflows 2.57 1.72 1.16 1.02 0.75 €4.10 Duty Free Labelled Total outflows by country, 2014-2018 (bn cigarettes)

© 2019 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 France -0.07 -0.13 -0.11 -0.22 -0.28 Map shows major flows. Countries which are both a source and a destination are coded according to the larger flow. UK -0.05 -0.08 -0.09 -0.16 -0.15 Germany -0.11 -0.15 -0.12 -0.14 -0.14 Flow Colours Country Colours Belgium -0.02 -0.06 -0.03 -0.06 -0.09 Country label format: Italy -0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02 -0.06 Inflow to Country of Study Country of Study Source Country Name Other -0.14 -0.16 -0.27 -0.19 -0.22 Outflow from Country of Study Destination (Average price per pack) Total Outflows -0.41 -0.61 -0.64 -0.79 -0.93

Sources: KPMG EU flows model 2014-2018; travel data taken from World Travel Organisation statistics Hover here to view any BULGARIA country-specific adjustments

Country Type Select country and type to customise view BULGARIA C&C

C&C% by region C&C by country of origin, 2014-2018 (bn C&C by brand, 2014-2018 (bn cigarettes) cigarettes)

2.5 2.5

Vidin Ruse Dobric 1.13 Montana 1.7 1.7 Sumen Varna 0.00 2.22 0.036 0.61 Lovec 1.0 1.0 0.0217 1.33 0.13 0.8 0.8 Grad 0.39 1.28 0.34 0.04 0.5 0.80 0.5 0.021 Kjustendil 0.03 0.015 0.70 Jambol 0.82 0.15 0.061 0.051 0.41 Pazardzik 0.06 0.13 0.36 0.36 0.40 0.08 0.0202 0.01019 0.010 0.0146 0.0432

Blagoevgrad 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Other Republic of North Mace.. OTHER COMPLIMENT Counterfeit IWs:no country-specific l.. MM Ukraine KARELIA © 2019 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap Serbia CAPITAL

Sources: KPMG EU flows model 2014-2018; travel data taken from World Travel Organisation statistics Hover here to view any BULGARIA country-specific adjustments

Country Type Select country and type to customise view BULGARIA ND(L)

ND(L)% by region ND(L) by country of origin, 2014-2018 (bn ND(L) by brand, 2014-2018 (bn cigarettes) cigarettes)

0.2 0.2

0.04 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.01 0.2 Ruse 0.11 Dobric 0.04 0.02 0.04 Montana 0.02 Vratsa 0.01 Sumen 0.01 Veliko Tarnovo Varna 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 Lovec 0.01 0.16 0.02 Gabrovo 0.01 0.14 0.02 0.1 0.1 Grad Sofia Sliven 0.03 0.1 0.12 0.1 Burgas 0.03 0.11 0.10 0.02 0.05 Kjustendil Jambol 0.03 Plovdiv 0.01 0.00 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.01 Pazardzik 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.010 0.010 0.01

Blagoevgrad Haskovo 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Other Greece OTHER KARELIA Serbia Duty Free Labelled L&M MARLBORO MURATTI © 2019 Mapbox © OpenStreetMap Romania PRESIDENT

Sources: KPMG EU flows model 2014-2018; travel data taken from World Travel Organisation statistics