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The Role of Desalination Desalination of Role the Increasingly an in World Water-Scarce MARCH 2019 MARCH The Role of Desalination in an Increasingly Water-Scarce World Water-Scarce an Increasingly in Desalination of Role The WATER GLOBAL PRACTICE TECHNICAL PAPER Public Disclosure Authorized The Role of Desalination Public Disclosure Authorized in an Increasingly MARCH 2019 Water-Scarce World Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized About the Water Global Practice Launched in 2014, the World Bank Group’s Water Global Practice brings together financing, knowledge, and implementation in one platform. By combining the Bank’s global knowledge with country investments, this model generates more firepower for transformational solutions to help countries grow sustainably. Please visit us at www.worldbank.org/water or follow us on Twitter at @WorldBankWater. About GWSP This publication received the support of the Global Water Security & Sanitation Partnership (GWSP). GWSP is a multidonor trust fund administered by the World Bank’s Water Global Practice and supported by Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade; the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; The Netherlands’ Ministry of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation; Norway’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs; the Rockefeller Foundation; the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency; Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic Affairs; the Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation; Irish Aid; and the U.K. Department for International Development. Please visit us at www.worldbank.org/gwsp or follow us on Twitter #gwsp. The Role of Desalination in an Increasingly Water-Scarce World MARCH 2019 © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Please cite the work as follows: World Bank. 2019. “The Role of Desalination in an Increasingly Water-Scarce World.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights @ worldbank.org. Cover design: Jean Franz, Franz and Company, Inc. Cover photos (left to right): Nikolay Voutchkov, Jacob Vanderheyen, Green MPs. Contents Acknowledgments ix Executive Summary xi Abbreviations xxxi Chapter 1 Water Scarcity Is Increasing at an Alarming Rate 1 The Challenge of Water Scarcity 1 Responses to Scarcity 2 Notes 4 Chapter 2 Desalination Has Increasingly Become a Viable Option to Close a Water Supply-Demand Gap 5 Desalination Explained 5 Early History 6 Desalination as a Water Supply Option 6 Desalination as Risk Management 7 Increasing Interest in Desalination 7 Notes 10 Chapter 3 Desalination Methods and Their Characteristics 13 Thermal Desalination 13 Multistage Flash Distillation 13 Multieffect Distillation Technology 13 Multieffect Distillation with Thermal Vapor Compressor 14 Membrane Desalination 14 Hybrids 16 Growth Patterns of the Commonly Used Desalination Technologies 16 Notes 18 Chapter 4 Desalination Cost 19 Costs of Multistage Flash Distillation Desalination Projects 19 Costs of Multieffect Distillation Desalination Projects 21 Costs of Seawater Reverse Osmosis Desalination Projects 22 Costs of Hybrid Desalination Projects 25 Notes 28 Chapter 5 Key Factors Affecting Cost of Desalinated Water 29 Analysis of Cost Differences between Technologies 29 Effect of Location on Costs 31 Plant Size and Economies of Scale 32 The Role of Desalination in an Increasingly Water-Scarce World iii Feedwater Quality 32 Target Product Water Quality 35 Environmental Impacts and the Effect of Regulation 37 Energy Use in Desalination and First Steps toward Using Renewable Energy 40 Other Factors Affecting Costs of Desalination 42 Comparison of Costs and Other Factors Affecting Choice of Desalination Technologies 43 Notes 48 Chapter 6 Likely Development of Technologies and Costs 49 New Opportunities for Cost Savings in Desalination 49 Background 49 Future Advances for Existing Technologies 50 Emerging Technological Advances with High-Cost Reduction Potential 51 Nanostructured Membranes 51 Carbon Nanotubes 53 Forward Osmosis 53 Membrane Distillation 53 Dewvaporation 54 Adsorption Desalination 54 Electrochemical Desalination 54 Capacitive Deionization 54 Potential Impact of Technology Development on Costs 55 Renewable Energy for Desalination 56 Notes 59 Chapter 7 Desalination Project Financing and Delivery, and Implications on Cost 61 Procurement Methods and Risk Allocation 61 Financing Desalination Projects 66 Putting Together Desalination Project Packages and Learning from Experience in the Middle East 68 Notes 70 Chapter 8 Choosing Desalination 71 Assessing Supply and Demand into the Long Term at the Basin Scale 71 Determining the Area and Planning Horizon 72 Developing Scenarios Based on Long-Term Development Choices and Trends 72 Assessing the Water-Related Implications of Each Scenario 73 Evaluating Scenarios Iteratively and Making Decisions 74 Downscaling the Basin Analysis at the Local Level 77 Assessing Whether the Physical, Economic, and Institutional Conditions Exist to Make Desalination a Prima Facie Option 79 Feasibility and Risk Screening for Desalination Options 80 iv The Role of Desalination in an Increasingly Water-Scarce World Selecting the Most Appropriate Technology 80 Assessing and Quantifying Risks and Their Mitigation 80 Assessing the External and Internal Political Economy 80 Evaluating the Policy and Institutional Framework for Project Choice, Financing, Delivery, and Operation 82 Decisions 84 Notes 86 Appendix A Breakdown of Costs of Desalination Projects in the Middle East and North Africa Region 87 Appendix B Case Study: The Sorek Desalination Plant in Israel 89 Appendix C Case Study: Israel Claims Water Independence through Desalination 93 Bibliography 95 Boxes 2.1. The Physical World Contains Natural Desalination Processes 5 3.1. Why Are Thermal Desalination Plants So Prevalent in the Middle East? 17 5.1. Biofouling 35 5.2. Environmental Compliance Can Make Desalination More Expensive 37 5.3. Environmental Conditions on the Perth Seawater Desalination Plant 40 5.4. High Labor Costs Can Add Significantly to Unit Costs 42 5.5. Desalination Plant Land Requirements 46 6.1. Potential Technology Improvements in Conventional Thermal Desalination Could Reduce Costs by a Further 10 Percent to 15 Percent 50 6.2. Membrane Productivity Has Doubled in the Past 20 Years 51 6.3. Areas for Further Reduction of the Cost of Reverse Osmosis Desalination Technologies 52 6.4. Nanostructured Reverse Osmosis Membranes 52 6.5. Dewvaporation Is a Low-Temperature, Low-Cost Evaporation Technology 54 6.6. Capacitive Deionization 55 6.7. Australia’s Major Desalination Plants Generate More Wind Power than They Use 57 6.8. Improvements in Concentrated Solar Power Technology Are Increasing Efficiency 58 7.1. Risks Associated with the Development and Management of Desalination Infrastructure 62 7.2. Typical Build-Own-Operate-Transfer Contractual Structure 65 7.3. Project Financing Costs 67 7.4. Government Guarantees Helped Israel Achieve Record Low Bid Prices for Desalinated Water 69 8.1. China’s Sponge City Initiative 73 8.2. The Emerging Gap between Supply and Demand in Vietnam’s Red-Thai Binh Basin Can Be Closed by a Combination of Demand Management Measures in Agriculture and in Municipal and Industrial Water Use 74 The Role of Desalination in an Increasingly Water-Scarce World v 8.3. Singapore Plans for Water Autonomy through Desalination and Wastewater Reuse 78 8.4. Controversy over the Decision to Build the Kurnell Desalination Plant in Sydney 81 8.5. Desalinated Water Use in Israel Causing Alarming Iodine Deficiency in People 81 8.6. Benefits and Challenges of Public–Private Partnerships in Singapore 82 8.7. The Tribulations of the Tampa Bay Seawater Desalination Plant 83 B.1. Technological Innovation at Sorek Increases Efficiency and Flexibility, which Reduces Costs 89 B.2. Sorek Used Multiple Measures to Reduce Environmental Impacts of the Plant’s Operation 90 B.3. Innovations in Project Financial Engineering Helped Keep the Costs of Sorek Down 91 Figures ES.1. Geographical Limitations Cities Face in Obtaining Water xi ES.2. Global Cumulative Contracted and Online Desalination Capacity, 1965–2017 xiii ES.3. Global Cumulative Capacity of Seawater Desalination by Technology xiv ES.4. Costs of Water Produced by Seawater Reverse Osmosis Desalination Projects, by Feedwater Source xvi ES.5. Trends in the Cost of Desalination of Multistage Flash Distillation and Seawater Reverse Osmosis Plants xxi ES.6. Levelized Cost of Energy Evolution in Major Concentrated Solar Power
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