The ACT Election 2020: It wasn’t time The ACT election between 28 September and October 17 resulted in the ALP receiving 37.8 per cent of the vote, 0.6 less than in 2016, the Liberals 33.8 per cent, down 2.9 with the Greens on 13.5 per cent, up 3.2. The ALP lost two seats, the Liberals two while the Greens picked up four. It was the Greens best result since 2008 when they got a record 15.6 per cent. While the ALP vote appears to be stable the result masks substantial shifts in its support from electorate to electorate. As a result the ALP ended up with 10 seats, the Liberals 9 and the Greens 6. The ALP and Greens renewed their coalition and remained in government, an arrangement that has been in place since 2008. The Election context 2016 to 2020 The Liberals changed their leader after the 2016 election, Alistair Coe replacing Jeremy Hanson The tram or light rail project, one of the primary issues of the 2016 election, was completed without major problems (a bit late but under budget) and proved popular with commuters The Covid 19 pandemic impacted on the ACT as it did everywhere but not as severely. It did change campaigning activities to some extent The Canberra Times when under the ownership of Nine Entertainment seemed to run an anti ACT government line but this was moderated when taken over by Australian Community media A free newspaper City News became very pro Liberal in the lead up to the election Jon Stanhope a former ALP Chief Minister (2001 to 2011) became a trenchant critic of current Chief Minister Andrew Barr and the ALP, accusing them if financial mismanagement, under spending on health and lack of interest in the less well off Economically the ACT did well with higher growth and less unemployment than most of Australia The Liberals won the federal election in May 2019 with slight two party preferred swings towards them in two out of the three ACT federal divisions Elections ACT made some changes to electoral boundaries in 2019, all electorates were impacted but the most significant changes were in Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee where the former lost Deakin and Yarralumla to the latter, which on 2016 voting made Murrumbidgee stronger for the Liberals Election 2020 - the contestants The 2020 election was contested by the usual large number of parties. New groups included the Belco party, Labour DLP, Australian Federation Party Australian Capital Territory, Canberra Progressives, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (ACT) and the Australian Climate Change Justice Party. The Sex Party, Canberra Community Voters and Like Canberra withdrew from the 2020 campaign. ACT Labor - The ACT branch of the Australian Labor Party. Australia’s oldest party, founded in 1890 is the most successful in the ACT both at a Federal and Territory level. Basically a social democratic centre left party. Has governed the ACT since 2001 as a minority government, usually with the support of the Greens, except for the period 2004 to 2008 when it was a majority government. It was the first party to govern the ACT in 1989 1 Canberra Liberals - The ACT division of the Liberal Party of Australia. Founded in 1944 but goes back to the merger of the Free Trade and Protectionist parties in 1909. A centre right conservative party. Governed the ACT in association with minor parties from 1989 to 1991 and again with the support of independents from 1995 to 2001. The Greens - ACT Greens, associated with the national Green party. First contested ACT elections in 1995 when they won a seat in the 7 member Molonglo electorate and another in the 5 member Ginninderra. Their best result was in 2008 when they won 4 seats, Although they supported the Liberals in 1995 they have since sided with Labor. Their leader Shane Rattenbury joined the Cabinet after the 2012 election and again in 2016. Liberal Democrats - Believe in small government, low taxes and minimal regulation. Contested only two electorates and have contested ACT elections in the past. Animal Justice Party - A one issue party established in all states to campaign for animal rights. Contested all electorates. Sustainable Australia - Stop over development. Stop corruption was formerly known as Sustainable Australia ACT - a national party that focusses on limiting population growth in all parts of Australia, the addition to its concerns did not add to its votes. The Community Action Party (ACT) formerly named Community Alliance - A party formed to contest the 2008 election in protest against the government’s decisions to cut expenditure, especially on schools, and the government’s response to the 2003 bush fire disaster. Contested only one electorate. Belco party - formed by Bill Stefaniak a former Minister in the Kate Carnell Liberal Government (1995 - 2001) and Liberal leader 2006 to 2007. It was formed to promote the interests of the Belconnen community. Its candidates included Bill plus a number of former independents and minor party candidates. Used Don Chip’s old slogan “Keep the bastards honest” . Labour DLP - a resurrection of the old Democratic Labor Party (DLP) which was formed out of the Labor split in 1955. Supports social conservatism, the family and is antipathetic to gender identity issues. Australian Federation Party Australian Capital Territory - Operates throughout Australia, but website does not outline specific policy detail except extensive consultation with electors, but don’t they all? Canberra Progressives - A branch of the Australian Progressives that contested all three ACT seats at the federal election. Wants to eliminate poverty and combat climate change. Has links to the former Like Canberra and Bullet Train parties. Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (ACT) - The ACT branch of the party formed in NSW originally as the Shooters Party, generally conservative in outlook. Tends to promote the interests of its supporters (as listed in its name) over environmental concerns. Has been successful in New South Wales, winning seats in both Houses of Parliament. Australian Climate Change Justice Party - As its name implies concerned with climate issues but in a different way to the others. 2 Independents - Many fewer than in previous ACT elections, only one, Fiona Carrick polled well with 7 per cent of the vote in Murrumbidgee. Independents were important in the pre - self government era and in the first four terms of ACT self government. No independents have been elected since 1998. The voting system in the ACT is Hare Clark with Robson rotation, the same as used in Tasmania. The 25 member ACT Assembly has 5 seats with 5 members each. The outcome in the electorates Table 1 below outlines the percentage vote, and the swing to or against, for all parties at the election conducted over the period 28 September to 17 October 2020. Elections ACT encouraged voters to pre poll as much as possible to avoid problems with the covid 19 health crisis. Yerrabi - covers Gungahlin and some northern Belconnen suburbs. The ALP suffered an adverse swing of 9.8 per cent possibly due to the absence of popular candidate Meegan Fitzharris, who resigned well before the election. Also it is the seat of Liberal leader Alistair Coe. The Liberal vote increased by 4.8 per cent and the Greens by 3.1 per cent. It has been surmised that the increase in the Green vote was at the expense of the Liberals in the ACT, but that is not obvious in Yerrabi. They may well have picked up votes from the ALP or the Sex party which did not contest the 2029 election. In 2016 the ALP received a large swing to it, probably due to the tram issue. As the tram is now up and running it is no longer an issue in the electorate. Another factor was that the Labour DLP group was first on the ballot paper and that may have given them votes from ALP voters who mistook them for ALP candidates. Two incumbent candidates lost their seats; the ALP’s Deepak-Raj Gupta to the Greens Andrew Braddock and Liberal James Milligan to Liberal Leanne Castley. Ginninderra - Covers most of Belconnen. The Belco party contested this seat with Bill Stefaniak a former ACT Liberal government Minister plus a number of other candidates who had previously contested the seat as independents or members of minor parties (Vijay Dubey (independent), Chic Henry (Motorists Party), Angela Lount, Bill Stefaniak (Liberal) and Alan Tutt. They appeared to be well resourced (if corflute numbers are any guide). They got a respectable 9.4 per cent but failed to win a seat, the ALP vote declined slightly while the Liberals declined substantially, 5.3 per cent. The Greens vote was up by 2.8 per cent. The liberals possibly lost votes to Belco and the Shooters and the ALP lost some to the Greens. Again the presence of Labour DLP ahead of the ALP on the ballot paper may have cost them votes. One incumbent, the ALP’s Gordon Ramsey lost to the Green’s Jo Clay. Kurrajong - Includes North Canberra and parts of South Canberra, a typical inner city electorate with so called “hip” suburbs of never married, flat dwellers, renters, no religion and cycling residents. Usually a recipe for a solid Green vote, certainly true for Kurrajong where they received 23.0 per cent with a swing of 2.8 per cent. As a result they picked up a seat, Rebecca Vassarotti joined Shane Ratterbury to boost the Greens total to two. She displaced Candice Burch of the Liberals. The ALP also gained a 2.3 per cent swing with Chief Minister Andrew Barr snaring 22 per cent of the vote, the highest of any candidate.