The ACT Election 2020: It wasn’t time

The ACT election between 28 September and October 17 resulted in the ALP receiving 37.8 per cent of the vote, 0.6 less than in 2016, the Liberals 33.8 per cent, down 2.9 with the Greens on 13.5 per cent, up 3.2. The ALP lost two seats, the Liberals two while the Greens picked up four. It was the Greens best result since 2008 when they got a record 15.6 per cent. While the ALP vote appears to be stable the result masks substantial shifts in its support from electorate to electorate.

As a result the ALP ended up with 10 seats, the Liberals 9 and the Greens 6. The ALP and Greens renewed their coalition and remained in government, an arrangement that has been in place since 2008.

The Election context 2016 to 2020 ‚ The Liberals changed their leader after the 2016 election, replacing ‚ The tram or light rail project, one of the primary issues of the 2016 election, was completed without major problems (a bit late but under budget) and proved popular with commuters ‚ The Covid 19 pandemic impacted on the ACT as it did everywhere but not as severely. It did change campaigning activities to some extent ‚ The Times when under the ownership of Nine Entertainment seemed to run an anti ACT government line but this was moderated when taken over by Australian Community media ‚ A free newspaper City News became very pro Liberal in the lead up to the election ‚ Jon Stanhope a former ALP Chief Minister (2001 to 2011) became a trenchant critic of current Chief Minister and the ALP, accusing them if financial mismanagement, under spending on health and lack of interest in the less well off ‚ Economically the ACT did well with higher growth and less unemployment than most of Australia ‚ The Liberals won the federal election in May 2019 with slight two party preferred swings towards them in two out of the three ACT federal divisions ‚ Elections ACT made some changes to electoral boundaries in 2019, all electorates were impacted but the most significant changes were in Kurrajong and Murrumbidgee where the former lost Deakin and Yarralumla to the latter, which on 2016 voting made Murrumbidgee stronger for the Liberals

Election 2020 - the contestants The 2020 election was contested by the usual large number of parties. New groups included the Belco party, Labour DLP, Australian Federation Party Australian Capital Territory, Canberra Progressives, Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (ACT) and the Australian Climate Change Justice Party. The Sex Party, Canberra Community Voters and Like Canberra withdrew from the 2020 campaign.

ACT Labor - The ACT branch of the Australian Labor Party. Australia’s oldest party, founded in 1890 is the most successful in the ACT both at a Federal and Territory level. Basically a social democratic centre left party. Has governed the ACT since 2001 as a minority government, usually with the support of the Greens, except for the period 2004 to 2008 when it was a majority government. It was the first party to govern the ACT in 1989

1 Canberra Liberals - The ACT division of the Liberal Party of Australia. Founded in 1944 but goes back to the merger of the Free Trade and Protectionist parties in 1909. A centre right conservative party. Governed the ACT in association with minor parties from 1989 to 1991 and again with the support of independents from 1995 to 2001.

The Greens - ACT Greens, associated with the national Green party. First contested ACT elections in 1995 when they won a seat in the 7 member Molonglo electorate and another in the 5 member Ginninderra. Their best result was in 2008 when they won 4 seats, Although they supported the Liberals in 1995 they have since sided with Labor. Their leader joined the Cabinet after the 2012 election and again in 2016.

Liberal Democrats - Believe in small government, low taxes and minimal regulation. Contested only two electorates and have contested ACT elections in the past.

Animal Justice Party - A one issue party established in all states to campaign for animal rights. Contested all electorates.

Sustainable Australia - Stop over development. Stop corruption was formerly known as Sustainable Australia ACT - a national party that focusses on limiting population growth in all parts of Australia, the addition to its concerns did not add to its votes.

The Community Action Party (ACT) formerly named Community Alliance - A party formed to contest the 2008 election in protest against the government’s decisions to cut expenditure, especially on schools, and the government’s response to the 2003 bush fire disaster. Contested only one electorate.

Belco party - formed by a former Minister in the Liberal Government (1995 - 2001) and Liberal leader 2006 to 2007. It was formed to promote the interests of the Belconnen community. Its candidates included Bill plus a number of former independents and minor party candidates. Used Don Chip’s old slogan “Keep the bastards honest” .

Labour DLP - a resurrection of the old Democratic Labor Party (DLP) which was formed out of the Labor split in 1955. Supports social conservatism, the family and is antipathetic to gender identity issues.

Australian Federation Party Australian Capital Territory - Operates throughout Australia, but website does not outline specific policy detail except extensive consultation with electors, but don’t they all?

Canberra Progressives - A branch of the Australian Progressives that contested all three ACT seats at the federal election. Wants to eliminate poverty and combat climate change. Has links to the former Like Canberra and Bullet Train parties.

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party (ACT) - The ACT branch of the party formed in NSW originally as the Shooters Party, generally conservative in outlook. Tends to promote the interests of its supporters (as listed in its name) over environmental concerns. Has been successful in New South Wales, winning seats in both Houses of Parliament.

Australian Climate Change Justice Party - As its name implies concerned with climate issues but in a different way to the others.

2 Independents - Many fewer than in previous ACT elections, only one, Fiona Carrick polled well with 7 per cent of the vote in Murrumbidgee. Independents were important in the pre - self government era and in the first four terms of ACT self government. No independents have been elected since 1998.

The voting system in the ACT is Hare Clark with Robson rotation, the same as used in . The 25 member ACT Assembly has 5 seats with 5 members each.

The outcome in the electorates Table 1 below outlines the percentage vote, and the swing to or against, for all parties at the election conducted over the period 28 September to 17 October 2020. Elections ACT encouraged voters to pre poll as much as possible to avoid problems with the covid 19 health crisis.

Yerrabi - covers Gungahlin and some northern Belconnen suburbs. The ALP suffered an adverse swing of 9.8 per cent possibly due to the absence of popular candidate Meegan Fitzharris, who resigned well before the election. Also it is the seat of Liberal leader Alistair Coe. The Liberal vote increased by 4.8 per cent and the Greens by 3.1 per cent. It has been surmised that the increase in the Green vote was at the expense of the Liberals in the ACT, but that is not obvious in Yerrabi. They may well have picked up votes from the ALP or the Sex party which did not contest the 2029 election. In 2016 the ALP received a large swing to it, probably due to the tram issue. As the tram is now up and running it is no longer an issue in the electorate. Another factor was that the Labour DLP group was first on the ballot paper and that may have given them votes from ALP voters who mistook them for ALP candidates. Two incumbent candidates lost their seats; the ALP’s Deepak-Raj Gupta to the Greens and Liberal to Liberal .

Ginninderra - Covers most of Belconnen. The Belco party contested this seat with Bill Stefaniak a former ACT Liberal government Minister plus a number of other candidates who had previously contested the seat as independents or members of minor parties (Vijay Dubey (independent), Chic Henry (Motorists Party), Angela Lount, Bill Stefaniak (Liberal) and Alan Tutt. They appeared to be well resourced (if corflute numbers are any guide). They got a respectable 9.4 per cent but failed to win a seat, the ALP vote declined slightly while the Liberals declined substantially, 5.3 per cent. The Greens vote was up by 2.8 per cent. The liberals possibly lost votes to Belco and the Shooters and the ALP lost some to the Greens. Again the presence of Labour DLP ahead of the ALP on the ballot paper may have cost them votes. One incumbent, the ALP’s Gordon Ramsey lost to the Green’s .

Kurrajong - Includes North Canberra and parts of South Canberra, a typical inner city electorate with so called “hip” suburbs of never married, flat dwellers, renters, no religion and cycling residents. Usually a recipe for a solid Green vote, certainly true for Kurrajong where they received 23.0 per cent with a swing of 2.8 per cent. As a result they picked up a seat, joined Shane Ratterbury to boost the Greens total to two. She displaced Candice Burch of the Liberals. The ALP also gained a 2.3 per cent swing with Chief Minister Andrew Barr snaring 22 per cent of the vote, the highest of any candidate.

Murrumbidgee - A disparate electorate that includes the new areas in the Molonglo Valley, Weston Creek, Woden (the second oldest community in the ACT developed in the 1960s), parts of Tuggeranong and parts of South Canberra. The Liberals had hopes of winning three seats here. They needed to if they had any chance of winning the election.

3 Table 1 The election outcomes 2020 (Percentages) Yerrabi Ginninderra Kurrajong Murrumbidgee Brindabella ACT % Swing % Swing % Swing % Swing % Swing % Swing Parties contesting the 2020 election

ACT Labor (ALP) 34.2 -9.8 40.0 -1.4 38.0 2.3 36.1 2.2 40.7 7.1 37.8 -0.6 Canberra 40.6 4.8 26.7 -5.3 27.6 -3.4 35.6 -7.2 38.4 -3.5 33.8 -2.9 Liberals (Liberal) The ACT Greens 10.3 3.1 12.5 2.8 23.0 4.2 11.7 1.1 10.8 5.7 13.5 3.2 Animal Justice 1.3 0.4 1.7 0.8 1.6 0.3 2.0 -0.1 2.2 -0.1 1.8 0.3 Party Liberal dns 0.8 -0.4 dns dns 1.3 -1.2 1.3 -1.2 Democrats Sustainable 1.3 -0.1 1.8 -0.6 1.6 0.3 1.6 0.3 2.3 0.8 1.7 0.1 Australia - Stop over development. Stop corruption The Community dns dns 0.4 0.4 dns dns 0.1 0.1 Action Party (ACT) Australian dns 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 dns 0.7 0.7 Climate Change Justice Party Australian 0.2 0.2 dns dns dns 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.3 Federation Party Australian Capital Territory Belco party dns 9.4 9.4 dns dns dns 2.0 2.0 Canberra 2.7 2.7 dns 5.0 5.0 2.7 2.7 dns 2.0 2.0 Progressives David Pollard 3.2 3.2 dns dns dns dns 0.6 0.6 Independent Labour DLP 4.7 4.7 2.4 2.4 dns dns dns 1.4 1.4 Shooters, dns 2.3 2.3 dns 1.4 1.4 3.1 3.1 1.4 1.4 Fishers and Farmers Party (ACT) Ungrouped 1.6 -9.2 1.3 -11.1 1.8 -7.4 7.7 -0.9 dns 2.5 -8.3 Parties contesting the 2016 election but not the 2020 Sex Party 4.0 dns dns 3.5 7.9 3.1 Like Canberra 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.9 1.1 Canberra dns 1.7 1.8 dns dns 0.7 Community Voters Source: Elections ACT Webpage - dns Did not stand -

Unfortunately for them, they suffered an adverse swing of 7.2 per cent. With both The ALP and Greens achieving positive swings the status quo was the outcome. of the Greens replaced Caroline Le Couteur, who retired. Incumbent Bec Cody of the ALP lost out to party comrade .

Brindabella - an electorate comprising most of Tuggeranong and the largely unpopulated south of the ACT, including Namadgi national park. Johnathan Davis of the Greens succeeded where television quizzer, the Governess1, failed. He chased down ALP candidate Taimus Werner-Gibbings to win the fifth seat. The ALP did quite well to pull off a swing of 7.1 per cent. The Liberal’s vote declined by 3.5 per cent causing the loss of their third seat

4 held since 2008. The absence of the Sex Party meant that 7.9 per cent of the vote was up for grabs some of which might have gone to the Greens and the ALP. Sitting Liberal member lost his seat to the Green’s Johnathan Davis. The Chaser’s Governess

Elections ACT encouraged voters to pre poll at the election due to the covid 19 health crisis. They did. Some 188,479 out of 269,257 voters voted before October 17th, 70 per cent. Another 17,172 used postal votes, 6.4 per cent. Consequently only 23.6 per cent voted on election day. Although pre poll voting has increased in recent years it was only around 20 per cent at the federal election in 2019.

Consequently, analysing voting at polling booth and community level has become unreliable.

The 2016 election in historical context Local elections have been held in the ACT since at least 1930 for a variety of local bodies. The earliest data from the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) for ACT local elections is for the Advisory Council election of 1967. Data for elections before then are hard to find, even in the AEC. Since the inception of responsible government in 1989 there have been ten elections. Details of these are reported in Table 2.

In the first ACT self government election in 1989 the major party (ALP and Liberals) share of the vote was only 37.70 per cent, it peaked at 81.65 per cent in 2004 when the ALP won a majority. In 2008 the share dipped substantially when the Greens, Australian Motorists Party, Community Alliance and Independents snared a lot of votes. However, in 2012 the majors recovered to obtain 77.78 per cent, the second highest for the years covered.

In 2020 the share of votes obtained by the ALP and Liberals declined slightly to 71.6 per cent the lowest since 2008 but still above the average of 65.8 per cent.

The average share for the major parties is 65.8 per cent, meaning that around 34 per cent of ACT residents are not committed to a major party.

The two major parties have tended to increase their share of votes since self government in 1989. Given that there were new parties in 2020 it is surprising that, despite widespread disillusionment with politics here and abroad, the two traditional parties have maintained support.

Also support for the ALP has been very consistent over the last four elections at around 38 per cent and not that much different from 1967 when they obtained 37 per cent.

Liberal support has improved from the earlier years; although, it levelled off in the last 16 years. The Greens, also a major party, have consistently scored around 10 per cent since their debut in 1995.

5 Table 2: Votes of Major parties in ACT Local Elections since 1967 (Percentages) Election ALP Liberal ALP-Lib ALP+Lib ALP Lib Swing swing ACT Advisory Council - 8 seats 1967 37.5 25.0 12.5 62.5 1970 30.4 13.5 16.9 43.9 -7.1 -11.5

ACT Legislative Assembly - 18 seats 1974 24.2 33.6 -9.4 57.8 -6.2 20.1

ACT House of Assembly - 18 seats 1979 41.5 21.2 20.3 62.7 17.3 -12.4

1982 41.0 25.8 15.2 66.8 -0.5 4.6

ACT self Government Legislative Assembly for the ACT - 17 seats 1989 22.8 14.9 7.9 37.7 -18.2 -10.9

1992 39.9 29.0 10.9 68.9 17.1 14.1

1995 31.6 40.5 -8.9 72.1 -8.3 11.5

1998 27.6 37.8 -10.2 65.4 -4.0 -2.7

2001 41.7 31.6 10.1 73.3 14.1 -6.2

2004 46.8 34.8 12.0 81.7 5.1 3.2 2008 37.4 31.6 6.0 69.0 -9.5 -3.3 2012 38.9 38.9 0.0 77.8 1.5 7.3 Legislative Assembly of 25 seats 2016 38.40 36.70 1.70 75.10 -0.50 -2.2 2020 37.80 33.80 4.00 71.60 -0.60 -2.9 Average 35.90 29.90 6.00 65.80 7.34* 7.52*

Source: Elections ACT, Australian Electoral Commission and the Canberra Times *sign ignored

Mate against mate With the Hare Clark electoral system the voter has a greater role in selecting candidates. They not only have to choose a party or independent but also need to select a candidate for a first preference vote.

In a single member system once they choose the party voters have to vote for the candidate chosen by that party. Also in most proportional systems they can vote for a party list but the party choses the order of candidates on that list. In an election campaign with Hare Clark Robson Rotation there are effectively two campaigns running simultaneously. A party campaign that implores voters to vote for party X and a campaign at electorate level where candidates canvass votes for themselves. In the ACT parties do not advocate for candidate Y but leave it up to the voter. These electorate level campaigns are often more lively than the overall campaign. So what motivates voters to chose one candidate over another?

6 Table 3: Top 69 candidates and attributes Candidate Votes Elected Party Leader Gender Incumb Ethnicity* ent 1 Andrew Barr 11,148 yes ALP yes male yes IC1 2 8,756 yes ALP yes female yes IC1 3 Alistair Coe 8,685 yes Lib yes male yes IC1 4 Jeremy Hanson 8,209 yes Lib no male yes IC1 5 7,407 yes ALP yes male yes IC1 6 6,459 yes ALP yes female yes IC1 7 6,395 yes ALP yes male yes IC1 8 Shane 6,388 yes Green yes male yes IC1 Rattenbury 9 6,306 yes ALP no female yes IC1 10 6,218 yes Lib no male yes IC1 11 5,866 yes Lib yes female yes IC1 12 5,222 yes Lib no female yes IC3 13 Michael 5,086 yes ALP no Male yes IC1 Pettersson 14 Elizabeth Lee 5,040 yes Lib no female yes IC5 15 Gordon Ramsey 4,783 no ALP yes male yes IC1 16 Leanne Castley 4,601 yes Lib no female no IC1 17 Andrew Wall 4,579 no Lib no male yes IC1 18 Taimus Werner- 4,568 no ALP no male no IC1 Gibbing 19 4,344 yes ALP yes female yes IC1 20 Marisa Paterson 4,197 yes ALP no female no IC1 21 Candice Burch 3,978 no Lib no female yes IC1 22 James Milligan 3,834 no Lib no male yes IC1 23 Fiona Carrick 3,783 no Indi no female no IC1 24 Deepak-Raj 3763 no ALP no male yes IC4 Gupta 25 Bec Cody 3,686 no ALP no female yes IC1 26 Emma Davidson 3,677 yes Green no female no IC1 27 3,535 yes Lib no female yes IC1 28 Jo Clay 3,495 yes Green no female no IC1 29 Andrew Braddock 3,431 yes Green no male no IC1 30 Georgia Phillips 3,273 no ALP no female no IC1 31 Amardeep Singh 3,226 no Lib no male no IC4 32 Rebecca 3,093 yes Green no female no IC2 Vassarotti 33 3,069 yes Lib no male no IC1 34 Johnathon Davis 3,019 yes Green no male no IC1 35 Robert Gunning 2,822 no Lib no male no IC1 36 Rachel Stephen 2,786 Yes ALP yes female yes IC1 Smith 37 Jacob 2,680 no Lib no male no IC5 Vadakkedathu 38 Ed Cocks 2,658 no Lib no male no IC1 39 Cathy Day 2,592 no ALP no female no IC1 40 Brendan Forde 2,546 no ALP no male no IC1 41 Jane Hiatt 2,448 no Lib no female no IC1 42 Patrick Pentony 2,384 no Lib no male no IC1 43 Tim Dobson 2,264 no ALP no male no IC1 44 Kacey Lam 2,256 no Lib no female no IC5 45 Katt Millner 2,242 no Green no female no IC1

7 46 Bill Stefaniak 2,214 no Belco no male no IC1 47 James Daniels 2,179 no Lib no male no IC1 48 Maddy Northam 2,172 no ALP no female no IC1 49 Mainul Haque 2,009 no Green no male no IC6 50 Krishna 1,899 no Lib no male no IC5 Nadimpalli 51 Brendan Long 1,828 no ALP no male no IC1 52 Tom Fischer 1,796 no ALP no male no IC1 53 Jacob Ingram 1,736 no ALP no male no IC1 54 Laura Nuttall 1,657 no Green no female no IC1 55 Tjarana Goreng 1,644 no Green no female no IC3 Goreng 56 Robert Johnson 1,628 no Lib no male no IC1 57 Ignatius Rozario 1,608 no Lib no male no IC4 58 Chic Henry 1,517 no Belco no male no IC1 59 Sarah Suine 1,494 no Lib no female no IC1 60 Judy Anderson 1,371 no ALP no female no IC1 61 Sue Ellerman 1,309 no Green no female no IC1 62 Sue Ducker 1,288 no ALP no female no IC1 63 Greg Lloyd 1,276 no ALP no male no IC1 64 Tim Liersch 1,269 no Green no male no IC1 65 Adriana Boisen 1,250 no Green no female no IC1 66 Tim Boehm 1,173 no Canberra no male no IC1 Progressive 67 Terry Baker 982 no Green no male no IC1 68 Rattesh Gumber 929 no Lib no male no IC4 69 Michael Brewer 904 no Green no male no IC1 Source: Elections ACT *British Police classification2

Under Hare Clark candidates who are in leadership positions and/are sitting members are seen as having an edge, profile is the key. Was it proven at this election?

‚ Of the top 10 vote getters (Table 3) five were Ministers, one was Speaker, one was leader of the Opposition, one was a previous opposition leader, one was a previous popular radio host and only one was a backbencher. All were incumbents and all re- elected ‚ Of the 25 elected 10 held leadership positions, 17 were incumbents ‚ Of the top 25 vote getters 10 held leadership positions

It certainly appears that the highest vote getters benefit from profile but it is not a guaranty of success. One minister (Gordon Ramsey) who polled reasonably well in terms of primary votes failed to be re-elected. Of course negative profile can be a disadvantage.

Is there a problem for non European candidates? At the 2016 election an aboriginal minister lost his seat and in 2020 a sitting member of Indian descent lost. Of the 25 members elected in 2020, 22 were of European descent and three were not. Two of these were established Liberal candidates (Elizabeth Lee and Elizabeth Kikkert) and the third was a Green with a southern European name. Of the top 69, 57 were Northern European with an average vote of 3,589. The 12 non IC1s had an average vote of 2,781. All of these were candidates for the ALP, Liberals and Greens so their lower vote was not attributable to their being candidates for minor parties.

Of these 12 three were elected and none held leadership positions. Three were incumbents

8 but one failed to be re-elected; although that candidate (Deepak-Raj Gupta) was elected on a count back not at the 2016 election.

The results seem mixed and it is not clear whether their lower vote is due to ethnicity or other factors such as profile, leadership or incumbency.

Conclusions Some journalists and other commentators thought that a Liberal win was likely, mostly because of the “It’s Time” factor. The ALP had been in office since 2001, some 19 years so the narrative was “they had run out of steam and would lose”. However, long term governments are common in Australia. The Liberals governed Australia from 1949 to 1972, 23 years. Labor governed New South Wales from 1941 to 1965, 24 years. The Liberal Country Party was in office for 27 years prior to 2001 in the Northern Territory. Queensland and South Australia had long term Liberal Country governments for over 30 years, albeit with the aid of gerrymandering.

While “It’s Time” might be a factor it is not axiomatic. Like sport, while the team is winning the coaches job is safe. Governments usually lose due to economic problems, incompetence, gross corruption or pursuing unpopular policies.

The Liberals have an uphill task in the ACT. Since 1967 the average vote favours the ALP by 6 per cent in ACT local elections. In the 2019 federal election the two party vote was ALP 61.4 per cent and Liberal 38.6 per cent. Does it mean that the Liberals can never win? No they actually achieved government in 1995 and 1998.

However, there were some unique factors operating at the time:

‚ In February 1995 the ACT was in recession, unemployment was 8.3 per cent ‚ The ALP federal government led by Paul Keating was unpopular, a few weeks after the ACT poll the ALP lost the federal division of Canberra at a by election. A division held by Labor since 1980 ‚ The Liberal leader, Kate Carnell, was a Liberal moderate with some charisma ‚ The incumbent ALP government led by was regarded as lacklustre by some

In 1995 the Liberals won 40.5 per cent of the vote, 8.9 more than the ALP. With seven seats compared to the ALP’s 6 they had established a “moral authority” to govern. They were able to do so with the support of a left of centre independent (Michael Moore), a social conservative independent (Paul Osborne) and the Greens. The Greens having won two seats at their first ACT election.

A future Liberals win would need a replication of that or to obtain a majority in their own right, a hard task only achieved by the ALP in 2004 with 46.8 per cent of votes cast.

Another factor mitigating against a Liberal win in 2020 was the federal Liberal/National Party government. There is a tendency for voters at state/territory elections to vote against the federal incumbent3. For many years in the 1950s and 60s State ALP governments were re- elected in Tasmania, New South Wales and Queensland while the Liberals ruled nationally. Also the London Council is often run by the opposition party to that governing at Westminster.

The only published poll on ACT voting intent was conducted in August for the Australia

9 Institute. It predicted (actual outcome) ALP 37.6 (37.8), Liberal 38.2 (33.8), Green 14.6 (13.5) and other 9.6 (14.9). It was an accurate prediction for the ALP and Greens but not so much for the Liberals and Others. Had the Liberals achieved the predicted vote they most likely would not have lost seats and had parity with the ALP. On those figures the ALP stood to lose seats to the Greens. Voting at the 2019 Federal election indicated that if the Green vote was replicated at the ACT election they would gain all the seats that they did.

It is plausible that the Liberals lost support over the campaign. Their campaign was based on cost of living pressures but they promised to lower taxes and provide better services which is basically incompatible. They had no effective answer to how this was possible. The debate between Andrew Barr (ALP Chief Minister) and Alistair Coe (Liberal leader of the opposition) did not shed any light on how the Liberals would deliver their policies. When asked how a Liberal government would dramatically increase the number of procedures at ACT hospitals Mr Coe basically said they would because they wanted too, not very convincing. Voters need some clue as to how promises are going to be achieved. The Liberals again raised the rates issue as they did in 2012 and 20164, it did not have much impact then and less in 2020. They did relent on their opposition to light rail.

Much was made of Alistair Coe’s conservative views. He was opposed to same sex marriage but that is a federal matter which was resolved in 2017. The platform the Liberals took to the election was not particularly conservative, they even proposed an enquiry into poverty led by former ALP Chief Minister, Jon Stanhope. Also they had a number of greenish policies concerning tree plantings and access to green space.

The ALP campaign was fairly low key relying on a number of promises concerning health, light rail, low interest loans for solar panels and batteries, jobs and their relative success in dealing with the covid 19 pandemic. The also stood on their record of economic growth and low unemployment.

The Greens campaigned on creating a new normal to operate after the pandemic such as promoting Australia's electric vehicle numbers, green housing, more public housing, green infrastructure revolutions and reaching 30 per cent tree canopy coverage across the ACT. Despite eschewing corflutes (a gesture against visual and plastic pollution) their vote share increased anyway. Also they avoided major leakages to parties such as Sustainable Australia and the Climate change justice party. In the past the Greens appear to have lost quite a few votes to the Sex Party and Bullet Train for Canberra.

The only other party to have an impact was the Belco party but it only fielded candidates in the Ginninderra electorate which includes Belconnen. Some thought it to be a front for the Liberals. If they could win a seat off Labor they could then support the Liberal’s candidate for Chief Minister, if the Liberals won 12 seats that one extra would put them in government. The team was headed by Bill Stefaniac, a former Liberal minister and member for Ginninderra. The party wanted better amenities for Belconnen and used the slogan “keep the bastards honest”. However, their policy statements were quite anti Labor and anti Green. Also in terms of world standards Belconnen is not particularly deprived of amenity. If some saw it as a Liberal front then retiring Liberal MLA Vicky Dunne did not, on election night she was disparaging of Bill. His intervention almost cost the Liberals a seat. Although Belco received 9.4 per cent of votes cast, it was not enough to win a seat.

Two party preferred votes are not generally calculated for elections conducted under the Hare Clark voting system but the following may give an indication. The ALP obtained 57.0 per cent, assuming that 90 per cent of Greens would give the ALP their second preference

10 and 50 per cent of Others would do so. In 2016 the two party preferred vote for the ALP (using the same assumptions) was 55.0 per cent.

The ACT now has one of the worlds longest running alliances between a social democratic and a green party. The lack of mining, pulp mills and old growth forest logging are possible reasons for its success.

Terry Giesecke December 2020

1. The Governess (Ann Hegarty) one of the chasers on the television Quiz program “The Chase Australia” failed to catch Taimus Werner-Gibbings on the program aired on Friday 27 November 2020. As a result he won prize money.

2. Used by UK police to identify persons (Perhaps I watched too many episodes of “The Bill”)

Code Ethnicity IC1 White - North European IC2 White - South European IC3 Black IC4 Asian IC5 Chinese, Japanese, or other South East Asian IC6 Arabic or North African IC9 Unknown

3. See Peter Brent “That long federal shadow” Inside Story @mumbletwits

4. The ALP introduced a tax reform package in 2012 that provided for the abolition of taxes including stamp duty and replacing the forgone revenue by increasing rates and land tax over a 20 year period. The liberals claimed it would triple rates.

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