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January/ February 2019 JANUARY/ FEBRUARY 2019 AN INTRODUCTION FROM U.S. AMBASSADOR (RET.) RICHARD E. HOAGLAND COMMENTARIES FROM U.S. AMBASSADOR RET. RICHARD L. MORNINGSTAR AND U.S. AMBASSADOR RET. ROBERT CEKUTA. THE UNITED STATES IN THE CASPIAN BY LUKE COFFEY c asp ianaff airs.c o m 1 2 Table of Contents Featured Essays Articles The Greater Caspian Region Pg. 10 The Caspian and Iran’s Foreign Pg. 40 Competition and Cooperation Policy Problems U.S. Ambassador (ret.) Richard E. Alex Vatanka Hoagland The Southern Gas Corridor Pg. 44 The United States in the Pg. 24 Efgan Nifti Caspian Region Luke Coffey The Legal Status of the Pg. 46 Caspian Sea Defining the Caspian Elvin Hatamzade Reflections on the Region Brenda Schaffer Pg. 28 Special Commentary on Pg. 56 U.S. Ambassador (ret.) Richard Pg. 30 Morningstar 2018 Events U.S. Ambassador (ret.) Robert Cekuta Peter Frankopan Pg. 32 Remarks by U.S. Pg. 34 Ambassador Alice Wells Remarks by U.S. Deputy Pg. 37 Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs George Kent The views and opinions expressed in this magazine are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Caspian Policy Center and its members. Assumptions made in the analysis are not reflective of the position of any entity other than the author(s). 3 Editorial Dear Readers, Welcome to the first issue of Caspian Affairs! We at the Caspian Policy Center hope that this bimonthly publication will help acquaint you with the political, security, infrastructure, economic, and trade and commerce issues and opportunities of the countries of the Caspian Sea region – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. These eight independent countries, once the center of the Silk Road immortalized by Marco Polo and others, are the land bridge between China and Europe and today are prime real estate for Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time, Russia considers them as part of its “privileged sphere of influence,” and Iran hovers directly to the south. Despite the major international competition in the region, each of these former Soviet republics, independent now for only 27 years, seeks to balance its relations with Moscow, Beijing, Washington, and Brussels. This is a region on the move and poised for greater success, in large part because of the worldclass ilo and natural-gas deposits in a number of the countries and, especially, in the Caspian Sea itself. It has the potential to supply significant amounts of hydrocarbons directly to Europe, as has already been proven by the successful Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan natural-gas pipeline. But the Caspian Sea region is not just about natural resources; even more, it’s about human resources, boasting a highly-educated population and skilled work force. The Muslim countries in the region are moderate, secular, and forward looking. Especially promising is that these countries are beginning to explore forming their own regional organization to gain greater prominence on the world stage. In this first issue of Caspian Affairs, you’ll find discussions of U.S. interests and policy in the region, theles ro of other key players, including Iran; a view of the recently signed Caspian Sea Convention that defines the rights and responsibilities of the five littoral states; and one view of the prospects for the long-awaited Trans-Caspian Pipeline that could deliver Central Asian natural gas directly to Europe. We at Caspian Affairs would value your feedback. Please contact us at [email protected]. To learn more about the region and to see weekly news updates, please visit www.caspianpolicy.org. Ambassador (ret.) Richard E. Hoagland Editor-in-Chief Caspian Affairs Magazine 4 5 THIS ISSUE’S FEATURE SECTION DEFINING THE CASPIAN AMBASSADOR (RET.) RICHARD E. HOAGLAND AMBASSADOR (RET.) RICHARD MORNINGSTAR Ambassador Richard E. Hoagland was U.S. Ambassador Richard Morningstar is the founding Deputy Ambassador to Pakistan (2011-2013), U.S. chairman of the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Ambassador to Kazakhstan (2008-2011), and U.S. Center. He also served as the U.S. Ambassador Ambassador to Tajikistan (2003-2006). He served to Azerbaijan, U.S. Ambassador to the European as U.S. Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Union, Special Adviser to the President and for South and Central Asian Affairs from October Secretary of State for Caspian Basin energy 2013-August 2015. He spent a decade in South and diplomacy, and Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy. Central Asia before returning to Washington in September 2013. BRENDA SCHAFFER LUKE COFFEY Professor Brenda Shaffer is a Luke Coffey is the director of the foreign policy and international Douglas and Sarah Allison Center energy expert, who specializes in for Foreign Policy at the Heritage the South Caucasus and greater Foundation. He served in the Caspian and Black Sea regions. United Kingdom’s Ministry of She is a senior fellow at the Defense as senior special advisor Atlantic Council’s Global Energy to then-Defense Secretary Liam Center in Washington, DC, and a Fox. He served in the U.S. army in visiting researcher and professor at Afghanistan and was awarded the Georgetown University. Bronze Star Medal in 2005. 6 THIS ISSUE’S ESSAYS AMBASSADOR (RET.) ROBERT CEKUTA ALEX VATANKA Ambassador to the Republic of Azerbaijan Alex Vatanka specializes in Middle Eastern (2015–2018), Bob Cekuta has long and extensive regional security affairs with a focus on Iran. He experience as a top level U.S. diplomat. Amb. is a senior fellow in Middle East Studies at the US Cekuta’s positions in the State Department Air Force Special Operations School (USAFSOS) at included Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary Hurlburt Field and teaches as an adjunct professor for Energy Resources as well as Deputy at DISAM at Wright-Patterson AFB. He has also Assistant Secretary for Energy, Sanctions, and served as the managing editor of Jane’s Islamic Commodities. Affairs Analyst and was a senior political analyst at Jane’s in London (UK). PETER FRANKOPAN EFGAN NIFTI Featured writer Peter Frankopan is Efgan Nifti is the Executive Director Professor of Global History at Oxford of the Caspian Policy Center (CPC) in University, where he is Senior Research Washington DC. He previously worked Fellow of Worcester College and Director as faculty development coordinator for of the Oxford Centre for Byzantine the Azerbaijan Diplomatic Academy Research. He is the author of bestseller (ADA), and as a research assistant The Silk Roads: A New History of the at Georgetown University. Mr. Nifti World, as well as The New Silk Roads: The received his graduate degrees from The Present and Future of the World, which George Washington University and makes its U.S. debut in February 2019. Georgetown University. 7 Caspian Snapshot Politics and Security THE CONVENTION ON THE SALOME ZURABISHVILI WINS Q3 of 2017. The main reasons for LEGAL STATUS OF THE CASPI- GEORGIAN PRESIDENTIAL the decrease in FDIs are the com- AN SEA ELECTIONS pleted pipeline project, transferring The presidents of the five countries Georgia’s former Foreign Minister of ownership in some companies with coastlines on the Caspian Salome Zurabishvili beat opponent from non-resident to resident Sea — Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakh- Grigol Vashadze in a runoff elec- units, and reduction of liabilities to stan, Russia, and Turkmenistan — tion for Georgia’s presidency. Zu- non-resident direct investors,” said agreed in August on the sea’s legal rabishvili, the first woman to hold Geostat. status after 22 years of negotiations. Georgia’s presidency, won with 59 percent of the vote. EIB MAY OPEN REGIONAL OF- BOLTON VISITS THE CASPIAN FICE IN UZBEKISTAN REGION PRESIDENT OF AZERBAIJAN The European Investment Bank John Bolton, Assistant to U.S. Pres- VISITS TURKMENISTAN (EIB) may open a regional office in ident for National Security Affairs, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev Uzbekistan, Uzbek media reported traveled to Russia, Azerbaijan, made an official visit to Ashgabat referring to a meeting of Deputy Armenia, and Georgia in October from November 21 to November Prime Minister and Chairman of 2018 to meet with his counter- 22. The two delegations signed the State Investment Committee parts and other senior officials to bilateral agreements relating to of Uzbekistan Sukhrob Kholmura- advance American interests on a transport and trade logistics, dov with EIB Vice-President Vazil range of security issues. cooperation in arts and scienc- Hudák. The EIB proposed during es, and education, among others. the negotiations to open a regional U.S. DEFENSE OFFICIAL President Aliyev praised these office of the bank in Uzbekistan. SAYS WASHINGTON WANTS agreements as helpful steps in es- BROADER DEFENSE COOPER- tablishing the East-West transport SOURCES FOR POLITICS AND ATION WITH AZERBAIJAN corridor. He also expressed satis- SECURITY SNAPSHOT, AND Laura Cooper, the U.S. Deputy faction with bilateral cooperation ENERGY AND ECONOMY Assistant Secretary of Defense in regional security, specifically in SNAPSHOT for Russia, Ukraine, Eurasia, met the Caspian Sea. Azernews, Azertag, Bloomberg, with President Ilham Aliyev and Caspian News, The Diplomat, Geo- Defense Minister Zakir Hasanov GEORGIA ATTRACTS $322.6 stat, The Hill, Trend, and Xinhua in Baku on Tuesday December MILLION IN FOREIGN DIRECT Net. 4, 2018. According to reports, INVESTMENTS Cooper said her visit to Baku was Foreign direct investments (FDI) aimed at expanding defense co- in Georgia amounted to $322.6 operation and the U.S.-Azerbaijan million in the third quarter (Q3) of partnership, noting that broader 2018 as shown by preliminary data security and defense cooperation published by the National Statistics is in the best interest of the Trump Office of Georgia (Geostat). Q3 administration. FDIs were down by 48.2 percent compared to the adjusted data for 8 Energy And Economy KAZAKHSTAN’S TRANSIT 650 million somoni ($70 million).
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