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Assessing President Obama's Foreign Policy

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Assessing President Obama's Foreign Policy A MONTHLY P OLL C OMPILATION Volume 7, Issue 2 • February 2011 Assessing President Obama’s Foreign Policy In the past two years, poll-based assessments of Barack Obama’s handling of foreign policy have been sporadic. In part this reflects the public’s intense concern about the economy. Pew’s summary of the news stories people paid closest atten- tion to in 2010 found a familiar pattern. Americans were very interested in natural or man-made disasters here and abroad (the BP oil spill, the Haiti earthquake, and the Chilean mine disaster, for example), but much less interested in foreign policy developments. In terms of high interest, Iraq ranked fifteenth in a long list of news stories that most interested the public. Afghanistan didn’t make the top fifteen in Pew’s catalog. Although positive views of President Obama’s handling of foreign policy have dropped since he assumed office, his marks in this area have generally been among his most positive. Q: Right now, which is more important for President Obama to focus on . ? Egypt Erupts More important for President Obama Q: Do you . ? to focus on Jan. 2011 Jan. 2009 Approve of the way Domestic policy 78% 71% Barack Obama is handling Foreign policy 11 11 the situation in Egypt 47% Note: The January 2009 question asked about “President-elect Obama.” Disapprove 32 Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, latest that of January 2011. Note: A Fox News poll conducted Febru- ary 7–9, 2011 showed nearly identical Q: Next, we’re interested in how you think the U.S. is doing on some inter- results. Forty-eight percent approved and 32 percent disapproved of how the national issues. First, do you think . ? Obama administration was handling the situation in Egypt. U.S. is Things are about U.S. is Source: The Gallup Organization, Febru- making the same as they losing ary 2–5, 2011. progress have been ground The situation in Iraq 32% 48% 15% Q: Overall, are you . ? The situation in Afghanistan 23 45 24 Sympathetic to the Dealing with Iran 13 53 26 protestors in Egypt Drug violence along who have called the Mexican border 12 38 43 for a change of Dealing with North Korea 9 50 26 government 82% Note: In December 2008, 36 percent said the U.S. was making progress on the war in Iraq, Unsympathetic 11 26 percent losing ground, and 34 percent said things were about the same. Also in December 2008, 21 percent said we were making progress on the war in Afghanistan, 31 Source: The Gallup Organization, Febru- percent losing ground, and 42 percent said things were about the same. ary 2–5, 2011. Source: PSRA/Pew Research Center, January 2011. AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; John Fortier, Research Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Editor; Andrew Fellow; Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Rugg, Editor. Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Intern: Greg Brooks, Julia Goldstein, Matt Hoyt. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org Pollsters Map the President’s Foreign Policy Obama’s handling of foreign policy CNN/ORC CBS/NYT Quinnipiac Gallup App/Dis App/Dis App/Dis App/Dis Initial polls Feb. 2009 - - 50% 15% - - 54% 22% Mar. 66% 28% - - - - 61 28 Apr. - - - - 57% 32% - - Recent polls Jan. 2010 51 46 49 38 - - 47 47 Feb. - - 47 34 - - 51 44 Mar. 51 44 - - - - 48 46 Apr. - - - - 48 42 -- May - - 48 38 -- -- Jun. - - - - -- -- July - - 44 41 43 46 -- Aug. - - - - - - 44 48 Sept. - - - - 45 44 -- Oct. - - - - -- -- Nov. 49 46 46 37 46 44 45 49 Dec. - - 40 45 -- -- Jan. 2011 57 40 46 32 47 38 -- Feb. --- - - - 48 45 Obama’s handling of the situation in Afghanistan CNN/ORC AP-GfK Quinnipiac Gallup App/Dis App/Dis App/Dis App/Dis Initial polls Feb. 2009 --- - -- -- Mar. 67% 29%* - - -- -- Apr. - - 60% 26% - - -- Recent polls Jan. 2010 51 47 49 42 -- -- Feb. - - - - - - 48% 47% Mar. 55 42 57 32 52% 36% - - Apr. - - 51 38 49 39 -- May - - 49 39 45 40 -- Jun. - - 47 41 -- -- July 46 51 - - 43 46 -- Aug. - - 44 43 - - 36 57 Sept. 48 47 53 46 49 40 -- Oct. - - 52 47 -- -- Nov. - - 48 50 - - 44 49 Dec. - - - - -- -- Jan. 2011 51 46 54 44 46 40 -- Feb. - - - - - - 47 46 Note: *March 2009 CNN/ORC poll asked of a half sample. (continued on the next page) 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 2 (continued from the previous page) War Stories Obama’s handling of the situation in Iraq The Pew Research Center conducts both a news CNN/ORC AP-GfK coverage and a news interest index. They reported App/Dis App/Dis recently that during all of 2010, “just 1 percent of Initial polls Feb. 2009 --- - news coverage was devoted to Iraq events and pol- Mar. 63% 35%* - - icy debates, and in no week did Iraq consume more Apr. - - 59% 27% than 10 percent of the news hole.” Afghanistan received 4 percent of all news coverage in 2010. Recent polls Jan. 2010 53 43 49 39 Pew asked about public interest in Iraq 10 times in Feb. - - - - 2010. Roughly a quarter of Americans said they Mar. 51 46 55 33 were following the story “very closely,” but only Apr. - - 49 41 May - - 51 38 about one in ten said it was the top story they were Jun. - - 46 40 following. As for Afghanistan, Pew inquired about July 49 49 - - interest in it 18 times in 2010. Similarly, about a Aug. - - 45 43 quarter said they were following Afghanistan-related Sept. 57 41 60 39 news “very closely.” Like Iraq, Afghanistan was the Oct. - - 56 43 top story for fewer than one in ten Americans in Nov. - - 54 45 these Pew polls. Economic news was the top or sec- Dec. - - - - Jan. 2011 56 42 57 41 ond most closely followed news story in 32 of the 45 weeks in which Pew measured attention to it. Note: *March 2009 CNN/ORC poll asked of a half sample. Exporting Democracy Polls taken during George W. Bush’s presidency showed that Americans agreed with him that the world would be more stable and safer if there were more democracies. But deep skepticism about our ability to promote democracy abroad remained. Trend data show that Americans place democracy promotion at or close to the bottom of their foreign policy goals. The reason appears to be that Americans are not confident that we know enough about how to do this or are uncertain about outcomes. Q: Below is a list of possible 70% Helping to bring a democratic form of government to other nations foreign policy goals that the United States might have. For 60% each one please select whether you think that it should be a Somewhat Important 55% very important foreign policy 50% goal of the United States, a somewhat important foreign 40% policy goal, or not an impor- Very Important tant goal at all? 30% 26% Note: Beginning in 2002, surveys were conducted online. In 2010, 20% helping to bring a democratic form 19% Not Important of government to other nations 10% ranked 19th of 19 issues the poll- sters inquired about. Source: Chicago Council on Global 0% Affairs, latest that of June 2010. Jul-2001 Jul-1990 Jul-1979 Jan-2007 Jan-1996 Jan-1985 Jan-1974 Mar-2005 Mar-1994 Mar-1983 Nov-2008 Sep-2010 Nov-1997 Sep-1999 Nov-1986 Sep-1988 Nov-1975 Sep-1977 May-2003 May-1992 May-1981 (continued on the next page) 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 3 (continued from the previous page) Q: I’m going to read you some different things the president and Congress might try to do when it comes to helping developing countries. As I read each one, tell me if you think it should be one of their top priorities for helping develop- ing countries, important but not a top priority, or not that important. What about . ? ——————Helping developing countries—————— Top Important but not Not that Priority a top priority important Improving education 53% 35% 11% Helping out after natural disasters like earthquakes and tsunamis 50 43 6 Reducing poverty 40 42 16 Promoting the rights of women 39 47 14 Improving health for people in developing countries 37 48 13 Protecting the environment and fighting climate change 37 37 25 Promoting democracy 27 46 24 Source: Kaiser, August 2010. Q: Do you think the U.S. should or should not put greater pressure on countries in the Middle East, like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to become more democratic? Should Should Not 2003 41% 53% 2004 35 57 2010 38 59 Source: Chicago Council on Global Affairs, latest that of June 2010. Q: Which comes closest to your view? Some people believe that . National Dems. Inds. Reps. The US should always support democracy in the Middle East, even it means that the newly democratic countries may elect Islamist governments that do not support our interests 32% 36% 25% 29% The US should be cautious about supporting democracy in the Middle East because it is likely that the newly democratic countries may elect Islamist governments that do not support our interests 58 55 56 63 Source: Ipsos/Reuters, February 2011. Q: How concerned are you . ? Very/somewhat concerned that a new government in Egypt could be unfriendly or hostile to the United States 69% Not very/not at all concerned 28 Source: CBS, February 2011. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 4 Political Roundup Virtually every recent poll shows an uptick in positive ratings of President Obama and of Congress.
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