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Getting to 270: Blue, Red, and Purple States the Blue Wall

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Getting to 270: Blue, Red, and Purple States the Blue Wall A MONTHLY P OLL C OMPILATION Volume 7, Issue 11 • December 2011 Getting to 270: Blue, Red, and Purple States We show below the eighteen states that Democratic presidential candidates have won in each of the past five elections. In 2012, these states and the District of Columbia will have 242 electoral votes. Two hundred seventy are needed to win. Our friend and colleague at the National Journal Ron Brownstein calls these eighteen states the “blue wall.” He writes that “the last time Democrats won that many states so consistently was from 1932 to 1948, when Franklin Roosevelt and Harry Truman won twenty-two states in five consecutive elections.” George H.W. Bush won ten of these states in 1988, but John McCain did not come within 10 percentage points of Obama in any of them, he says. We also show how President Obama is doing in these states, first with Gallup data from January through June, and then in more recent polls where they are available. The Blue Wall States Democrats have won in all of the past five elections Obama’s rating, Latest available 2012 Electoral College votes Gallup (Jan–June) Obama approval California* 55 53% 46% (August) Connecticut* 7 60 50 (September) Delaware* 3 59 - District of Columbia 3 83 - Hawaii 4 56 56 (October) Illinois* 20 54 50 (October) Maine* 4 50 47 (October) Maryland* 10 59 49 (October) Massachusetts 11 57 57 (July) Michigan* 16 50 50 (July) Minnesota 10 52 - New Jersey* 14 54 48 (November) New York 29 57 50 (September) Oregon 7 44 - Pennsylvania* 20 48 42 (November) Rhode Island 4 50 - Vermont* 3 54 53 (July) Washington 12 50 - Wisconsin 10 50 44 (August) Total Electoral Votes in 2012: 242 Note: For the sources used for this table, see page 2. (continued on the next page) * States that George H.W. Bush carried in 1988. AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, Senior Fellow; Research Assistants: Jennifer Marsico, Norman Ornstein, Resident Scholar; Editor; Andrew Rugg, Editor. Michael Barone, Resident Fellow. Interns: Robyn Giannini, Brent Scher. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org (continued from the previous page) The Red Fence We look next at the states that have voted for the Republican presidential candidate in the past five elections. The thirteen states here will have 102 electoral votes in the 2012 election. The Republican bloc looks a little more like a fence than a wall. Below, we examine several toss-up or purple states that will play a major role in electing the next president. States Republicans have won in all of the past five elections Obama’s rating, Latest available 2012 Electoral College votes Gallup (Jan–June) Obama approval Alabama 9 38% 38% (August) Alaska 3 39 - Idaho 4 27 - Kansas 6 38 - Mississippi 6 45 36 (November) Nebraska 5 39 35 (Sept–Oct) North Dakota 3 37 - Oklahoma 7 32 - South Carolina 9 43 45 (November) South Dakota 3 41 - Texas 38 40 40 (September) Utah 6 32 31 (July) Wyoming 3 32 - Total Electoral Votes in 2012: 102 The Purple Maze In only one of the competitive purple states shown below is President Obama’s most recent approval rating at 50 percent. Number of times Unemployment 2012 Electoral a Republican has % Point Change Latest available College Votes won since ’92 2008–2011 Obama approval Colorado 9 3 +4.1 46% (August) Nevada 6 2 +7.9 44 (October) New Mexico 5 1 +3.5 50 (June) Iowa 6 1 +2.4 43 (November) New Hampshire 4 1 +1.9 44 (October) Ohio 18 2 +3.6 44 (November) Florida 29 3 +6.0 41 (November) North Carolina 15 4 +5.6 45 (October) Virginia 13 4 +3.1 40 (September) Total Electoral Votes in 2012: 105 Note: State-level polling conducted by the following organizations: Alabama: Capitol Survey Research Center; California: Field Poll; Colorado: Public Policy Polling (PPP); Connecticut: Quinnipiac; Delaware: CNN/Time; Florida: Quinnipiac; Hawaii: PPP; Iowa: NBC/Marist (Registered voters); Kansas: SurveyUSA; Maine: PPP; Maryland: Gonzales Poll; Massachusetts: Mass Inc Polling Group; Michigan: PPP; Mississippi: PPP; Minnesota: PPP; Nebraska: PPP; Nevada: PPP; New Hampshire: UNH/WMUR; New Mexico: PPP; North Carolina: PPP; Ohio: Quinnipiac; Oregon: SurveyUSA; New Jersey: Quinnipiac; Rhode Island: PPP; New York: Quinnipiac; Pennsylvania: Quinnipiac; South Carolina: Winthrop Poll; South Dakota: PPP; Texas: PPP; Utah: PPP; Vermont: PPP; Virginia: Quinnipiac; Washington: Survey USA; Wisconsin: PPP; and Wyoming: PPP. 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 2 Ready, Set, Go: Previewing the Early Caucus and Primary States Iowa Caucus (January 3, 2012) Our colleague Michael Barone began writing the Almanac of American Politics in 1972, and he has been a principal author of every biennial edition since. His knowledge of state–level politics is unparalleled, and we have drawn heavily on this work for the pro- files here. Iowa has had a caucus and convention system since the state joined the union in 1846, but it wasn’t until 1972 that the caucus was moved early in the cycle. That year, the Democratic Party moved its caucus ahead of the New Hampshire primary, and George McGovern’s victory put him on his way to the Democratic nomination. In 1976, the Iowa caucuses made then-unknown candidate Jimmy Carter a national contender. Republican winners of Iowa have a mixed record of success. In 1980, George H.W. Bush won Iowa, although he ulti- mately lost the nomination to Ronald Reagan. In 1988, Bush finished in third place behind Bob Dole and Pat Robertson. Dole’s narrow victory previewed the struggles his candidacy would face going forward. In 1992, Pat Buchanan waited until New Hampshire to challenge George H.W. Bush, who was the victor in 1992. Iowa played a decisive role in 2000. After George W. Bush won the Ames straw poll, Dan Quayle, Lamar Alexander, and Elizabeth Dole soon dropped out. Bush then went on the win the caucus over Steve Forbes. In 2008, the Iowa caucus helped to launch Barack Obama’s candidacy on the Democratic side. On the Republican side, after heavily outspending his rivals, Mitt Romney lost the caucus to Mike Huckabee, 34 to 25 percent. Huckabee was helped by the large evangelical contingent that turned out for the caucuses. But it was John McCain, who received only 13 percent of the vote in Iowa and placed fourth in the caucus, who would go on to win the nomination. Population makeup Economic indicators % Point Change 2010 2000–2010 2008 Latest White 92.9% -2 Unemployment 3.6% 6.0% (Sept. 2011) Black 3.7 +1.2 Homeownership 73.3% 70.5% (2011) Hispanic 5.0 +2.2 Median household income $50,142 $49,177 (2010) Source: Population makeup: U.S. Census; Unemployment, January 2008 and September 2011: BLS; Homeownership, QI 2008 and QII 2011: U.S. Census; Median household income, in current dollars: U.S. Census. 2008 entrance poll of Republican caucus goers � 45% called themselves very conservative, 43% somewhat conservative. � 60% called themselves evangelical/born again Christians. � Caucus goers were heavily male (56% male to 44% female). � The caucus goers were older (Seventy-three percent were 45 years of age or older. Of this group, 27% were ages 65 and older.) � 99% of caucus goers were white. � Nearly seven in ten said they lived in small cities or rural areas. � Iowa caucus goers said immigration (33%) was the top issue facing the country, followed by the economy (26%) 2008 Republican Caucus Results Huckabee 34% Romney 25 McCain 13 Thompson 13 Paul 10 Source: The Rhodes Cook Letter, October 2011. (continued on the next page) 1150 Seventeenth Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20036 202.862.5800 www.aei.org 3 (continued from the previous page) New Hampshire Primary (January 10, 2012) Since 1920, New Hampshire has held the first-in-the nation primary and has had extraordinary influence on the presidential selection process. Given its small size, it is known for its “retail poli- tics,” where candidates meet voters one-on-one. Its retail politics allows little-known candidates to propel themselves into the national spotlight. However, none of these lesser-known candidates has gone on to win his party’s nomination in the last 25 years. George McGovern in 1972 and Jimmy Carter in 1976 were the last to do so. In 2008, John McCain beat Mitt Romney 37 to 32 percent in New Hampshire, injecting new life into the McCain campaign. He also won in 2000, although George W. Bush was the eventual nominee. Pat Buchanan won it in 1996, with Bob Dole becoming the eventual nominee. Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan won the primary in New Hampshire in 1976 and 1980, and both went on to win their party’s nomination. Population makeup Economic indicators % Point Change 2010 2000–2010 2008 Latest White 95.4% -1.6 Unemployment 3.5% 5.4% (Sept. 2011) Black 1.7 +0.7 Homeownership 75.2% 74.3% (2011) Hispanic 2.8 +1.1 Median household income $66,176 $66,707 (2010) Source: Population makeup: U.S. Census; Unemployment, January 2008 and September 2011: BLS; Homeownership, QI 2008 and QII 2011: U.S. Census; Median household income, in current dollars: U.S. Census. 2008 exit poll of Republican primary voters � 21% called themselves very conservative, 34% somewhat conservative. � 23% called themselves evangelical/born again Christians. � Primary voters were heavily male (57% male to 43% female). � They were older (Seventy-two percent were 40 years of age or older. Of this group, 49% were ages 50 and older.) � 96% were white.
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