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Universidad De Los Andes Facultad De Economía Informe Final De La Memoria De Grado María Palacios Lleras 200722728 Mayo 22 De 2012

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Universidad De Los Andes Facultad De Economía Informe Final De La Memoria De Grado María Palacios Lleras 200722728 Mayo 22 De 2012 Universidad de los Andes Facultad de Economía Informe final de la Memoria de Grado María Palacios Lleras 200722728 Mayo 22 de 2012 ¿EN QUÉ MEDIDA, LOS PRECIOS Y LA PUBLICIDAD DETERMINAN LAS PREFERENCIAS POR UN BIEN? EL CASO DE LA CERVEZA RUBIA Y NO LIGHT EN COLOMBIA 1. RESUMEN Las empresas pueden hacer diferenciación de productos haciéndolos distintos objetivamente, o haciéndolos percibir como distintos mediante el uso del mercadeo. En este trabajo me refiero a esta segunda alternativa, y cuantifico qué tanto influyen el precio y la publicidad, como herramientas de mercadeo para productos entre los que no existen mayores diferencias objetivas, pero que se venden con marcas y precios diferentes. En particular he podido establecer que ambas herramientas llevan a la formación de preferencias de los consumidores por las distintas marcas nacionales de cerveza rubia y no light, producidas por Bavaria. De manera específica, cuantifiqué que el aumento de un punto en la identificación con una imagen publicitaria, incrementa en 0.229, 0.235, 0.232, 0.187, 0.246, y 0.155 puntos las preferencias de los individuos de estratos 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 y 6 respectivamente. Además, encontré que un incremento del 1% del precio de la cerveza, hace que aumenten las preferencias en 0.288, 0.266, 0.235, 0.237 y 0.2 puntos de las personas pertenecientes a los estratos 2, 3, 4, 5 y 6, respectivamente. Palabras clave: diferenciación de producto, publicidad, precios, Bavaria. 2. INTRODUCCIÓN En Colombia, la empresa Bavaria tiene el 99%1 de participación en el mercado de la cerveza, por lo que virtualmente es monopolista de dicha industria. Esta compañía fabrica cinco marcas nacionales que son: Águila, Póker, Club Colombia, Costeña y Pilsen. No obstante, personas conocedoras indican que la diferencia en la proporción de los ingredientes utilizada en cada una, como en su contenido de alcohol, es muy pequeña. Por esta razón, parece posible deducir que ni la calidad, ni los costos de producción de estas cervezas son muy diferentes. Aun así, cada una tiene un precio diferente en el mercado y las preferencias de los consumidores difieren de acuerdo a cada marca, es decir, Bavaria ha logrado diferenciar sus productos de manera exitosa. Por otra parte, las preferencias de las personas hacia un producto pueden estar basadas en las características del producto o en su marca. Entonces, dado que existen estudios que muestran que (i) aumentos en la concentración de mercado de marcas de cervezas (en Estados Unidos) están correlacionados positivamente con aumentos en la publicidad y no con disminuciones en los costos de producción [Greer, (1971)], y que, además, (ii) las diferencias en la proporción de los ingredientes de las cervezas parecen ser muy bajas; y que existen estudios que muestran que los consumidores le otorgan una calificación promedio igual a distintas cervezas con respecto a los atributos relacionados a la calidad de las mismas [Adison et al. (1964)], es razonable pensar que la diferenciación de producto en el caso de Bavaria, está basada en la diferenciación de sus marcas. Con el interés de verificar esta hipótesis, en este trabajo he cuantificado en qué medida las herramientas de mercadeo que posicionan a cada marca de manera diferente, que en este trabajo son el precio2 y la publicidad, determinan las preferencias por las cervezas 1 Esta información se encuentra publicada en la página de SabMiller referente al mercado de cerveza colombiano. La dirección es: http://www.sabmiller.com/index.asp?pageid=619 2 En este trabajo tomo el precio como una herramienta de mercadeo, partiendo de los hallazgos de Tellis y Wernerfert (1987), quienes concluyeron que las personas creen que el precio es una señal de calidad. Por nacionales rubias y no light de los consumidores. De manera específica, encontré que el aumento de un punto en la identificación con una imagen publicitaria, incrementa en 0.229, 0.235, 0.232, 0.187, 0.246, y 0.155 puntos las preferencias de los individuos de estratos 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 y 6 respectivamente. Además, encontré que un incremento del 1% del precio de la cerveza, hace que aumenten las preferencias en 0.288, 0.266, 0.235, 0.237 y 0.2 puntos de las personas pertenecientes a los estratos 2, 3, 4, 5 y 6, respectivamente. Para llegar a los resultados anteriores, realicé una serie de encuestas, descritas con mayor detalle en la metodología del trabajo, en las que recogí información acerca de qué tanto se identifican las personas con distintas imágenes, similares pero no iguales a las que Bavaria usa para hacer publicidad a las diferentes marcas de las cervezas; luego, acerca de las preferencias de los individuos por una cerveza, cuya marca desconocían al momento de probarla, y que tomaron después de ver dichas imágenes. Análogamente, conseguí información sobre las preferencias de los individuos por una cerveza que probaban después de ver un precio hipotético de la misma. A partir de esta información, cuantifiqué mediante un análisis econométrico, que también explico con mayor detalle en la metodología, la medida en que los precios y la publicidad afectan la formación de preferencias de los individuos. El interés de éste trabajo consiste en hacer una contribución empírica a la poca literatura académica existente acerca de diferenciación de producto en mercados monopolísticos; por lo general, cuando se habla de monopolios se trata el tema de discriminación de precios, asimismo, cuando se habla de diferenciación de productos, por lo general ésta se da en mercados de competencia monopolística. Por otra parte, dado que en este trabajo cuantifico qué tan importantes son el precio y la publicidad a la hora de determinar las preferencias de las personas, el mismo es relevante en el sentido de que permite entender cuál es la mejor herramienta que puede utilizar un monopolista para diferenciar sus productos. De la misma manera, este trabajo puede ayudar a resolver en parte una asimetría de información que tienen los consumidores de cerveza, en el sentido de que, a esta razón, las compañías que fabrican bienes cuya calidad es difícil de discernir, pueden cobrar un precio muy alto, y así, mandarle una señal de calidad a los consumidores. partir de los resultados, podrán determinar si quieren que sus preferencias por una cerveza estén determinadas por las características intrínsecas de la misma, o por su precio y publicidad. En cuanto a los límites de la investigación, es necesario mencionar que la muestra de las encuestas está compuesta sólo por habitantes de Bogotá. Asimismo, de las cervezas nacionales rubias y no light producidas por Bavaria, excluí de la cata a la cerveza Pilsen, debido a que no es comercializada en la ciudad. Es decir, las cervezas con las que realicé la cata de cervezas fueron las siguientes: Águila, Póker, Club Colombia y Costeña. El trabajo cuenta con otras dos limitaciones importantes. Primero, omito las cuestiones éticas acerca de si es correcto o no que un productor diferencie productos, mediante precios y/o publicidad, cuya calidad no puede ser percibida del todo por los consumidores. Segundo, ignoro las implicaciones que tiene la diferenciación de productos sobre la eficiencia, es decir, este trabajo no evalúa qué pasa con el excedente del consumidor ni del productor monopolista, cuando este último diferencia sus productos. 3. REVISIÓN DE LA LITERATURA RELEVANTE: A continuación resumo el tema principal y las conclusiones de cuatro artículos académicos, cuyos resultados aportan a la construcción de este trabajo porque la hipótesis que empleo, para una industria específica colombiana, se fundamentó a partir de los análisis y resultados de esos artículos para otros países y para otros productos. En este orden de ideas, lo primero que vale la pena destacar, es un experimento realizado por la compañía cervecera de origen inglés, Carling Brewery, durante la década de los sesentas, que se llevó a cabo para determinar si las preferencias de los consumidores frecuentes de cerveza (aquellos que normalmente consumían tres o más cervezas por semana) estaban determinadas por la marca o por la calidad del producto. En dicho experimento, los 326 participantes escogidos de manera aleatoria, recibieron seis botellas de cerveza sin su respectiva etiqueta y calificaron las diferentes características de las cervezas. Unas semanas después, recibieron seis botellas de cerveza, pero esa vez con su respectiva etiqueta, y volvieron a calificar cada cerveza de acuerdo a las mismas características que habían evaluado antes. A partir de los resultados encontrados en el experimento, los autores Adison et al. (1964), explicaron que los participantes del experimento no podían diferenciar las distintas marcas de cerveza cuando éstas se entregaron sin etiqueta; asimismo, le dieron un puntaje promedio igual a cada una. Por otra parte, cuando las cervezas se enviaron con su etiqueta, los participantes otorgaron puntajes diferentes a cada marca. Por lo anterior, tanto los autores como Carling Brewery, pudieron establecer que en el mercado de la cerveza inglesa del momento, las preferencias de los consumidores estaban determinadas por la marca y no por las características intrínsecas del producto. Este resultado me sirve para proponer que las cervezas colombianas no pueden ser diferenciadas por los consumidores y además, para plantear que las preferencias de los individuos están determinadas por la publicidad. De otro lado, el anterior estudio difiere del mío porque no contempla el mercado colombiano de cerveza y porque no cuantifican la influencia de la publicidad sobre las preferencias de los individuos. De manera similar, Lelièvre et al. (2009) evaluaron la validez de hacer tareas de clasificación de cervezas diferenciando por individuos entrenados y sin entrenamiento. Para ello, realizaron un experimento en donde cada participante probó nueve cervezas diferentes y las clasificó en distintos grupos (no había restricción de número de grupos) según la similitud de características entre las distintas cervezas.
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