NOVEMBER 1939 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE WASHINGTON VOLUME 19 NUMBER It A WORLD TRADE N in N D ENTAL U and N SURGICAL N GOODS A NEW PUBLICATION Trade Promotion Series No. 204 • This new report, world-wide in its scope, aims to assist American manufacturers and exporters of dental and surgical goods in promoting the sale of their prod- ucts in foreign lands. • The report covers all important foreign countries with the exception of Japan, China, and Spain, and minor countries and dependencies. • Here is presented a comprehensive survey of general health conditions, promotion and protection of public health by governmental and private organizations, and trade in dental, surgical, and hospital instruments, equip- ment, and supplies. PRICE 25 CENTS BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Copies may be purchased from the Superintendent of Documents, Government Printing Office, Washington, D. C, or through any District Office of the Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce located in commercial centers throughout the United States. Volume 19 Number 11 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE HARRY L. HOPKINS, Secretary BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE JAMES W. YOUNG, Director SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS NOVEMBER 1939 A publication of the DIVISION OF BUSINESS REVIEW M. JOSEPH MEEHAN, Chief MILTON GILBERT, Editor TABLE OF CONTENTS New or revised series: Page SUMMARIES Page Figure 5.—Wholesale price indexes of basic commodities, September Business situation summarized. 3 Commodity prices and October 1939 7 6 Figure 6.—Sterling exchange in New York by weeks and net gold Employment. S Foreign trade exports from the United Kingdom to the United States, by months, 9 1938 and 1939 Domestic trade 10 12 STATISTICAL DATA SPECIAL ARTICLE Table 46. Total exports of meats and meat products, including The depreciation of the pound sterling It lard, 1913-39 16 Table 47. Exports of lard, including neutral lard, 1913-39 16 Table 48. Exports of cotton cloth, 1913-39 17 CHARTS Table 49. Construction contracts awarded (valuation of total building) 1925-39 17 Figure 1.—Monthly business indicators, 1929-39 Table 50. Total cheese production, 1920-38 17 Figure 2.—Selected indicators of industrial activity, percentage in- Table 51. Cotton cloth mill margins, 1925-39 18 crease for week ended October 14 over the August average Table 52. Benzol production, 1923-39 18 Figure 3.—Freight cars on order, class I railroads, beginning of each Table 53. Farm wage rates without board, 1923-38 18 month, 1936-39 Table 54- Commercial failures in Canada, 1934-38 18 Figure 4.—Price movements of selected domestic and imported Monthly business statistics 19 commodities, September and October 1939 General index Inside back cover Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS is $2 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly, 15 cent§; weekly, 5 cents. Foreign subscriptions, 33.50. Price of the 1938 Supplement is 40 cents* Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D, C. 187096—3^—1 1 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS November 1939 Monthly Business Indicators, 1929-39 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION INCOME PAYMENTS AND CASH FARM INCOME VOLUME (1923-25-100) MONTHLY INCOME PAYMENTS (1929=100) 120 CASH FARM INCOME (t924M929=100) 110 'ONTHLY INCOME PAYMENTS , , CASH INCOME FROM FARM MARKETINGS \ \ {EXCLUSIVE OF RENTAL & BENEFIT PAYMENTS) 40 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 192)9 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS AWARDED** FOREIGN TRADE * 140 VALUE (1923-25=100) VALUE (1923^25=100) 120 100 80 60 40 20 V ^RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS 0 I I I 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934- 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS WHOLESALE PRICES AND COST OF LIVING 140 (l923~2S» 100) (1923-25=100 ) 110 120 100 -COST OF LIVING 100 FACTORY EMPLOYML , ** (ADJUSTED) ^ 80 SZJK?'^ 60 /V ^•FACTORY PAYROLLS (UNADJUSTED/ WHOLESALE PRICES 40 V f J 20 50 0 0 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 RETAIL SALES * STOCK PRICES 175 AUTOMOBILE SALES (1929-31 «1OO) (1923^25=100) 350 DEPARTMENT STORE SALES (1923-25=100) 150 300 -350 INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES 125 \ 250 -DEPAK>TMEN7"STORE : SALEs } 100 Sftr 200 'V \ 150 75 V d V 50 100 I 50 25 JEW PASSENGiER AUTOMOBiLE SAi_£^ 0 I I 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 * ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATION • THREE-MONTH MOVING AVERAGE Figure 1. November 1939 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS Business Situation Summarized USINESS activity moved forward during October promptly the change in buying since August, but, pro- B as the expansionary forces set in motion in Septem- gressively, additional industries have experienced pro- ber, following the outbreak of the European war, were duction advances. This follows from the type of reflected in the volume of production and distribution. purchasing initiated by the war and from the normal Factory output experienced another unusual rise during lags in any abrupt rise in economic activity. In con- the month, as manufacturers worked to fill the large trast with the position of the primary industries relative banks of orders built up during the buying wave of the to 1937, the aggregate volume of manufacturing activity preceding month. In a few industries, production remains below1- the 1937 level. Total factory employ- rapidly moved up toward the practical limits of capacity, ment at mid-October was almost 10 percent smaller though for industry as a whole there was still consider- able capacity not being utilized. The increase in PERCENT INCREASE activity has required large additions to working forces; c) 10 20 30 40 50 and a more-than-proportionate rise in pay rolls has occurred with some increase in working time. Coupled STEEL /NGOT PROD. with the rise in farm income generated by higher prices B/TUM/NOUS COAL PROD. for the major farm staples, this development has raised the dollar total of income payments to a figure which, FREIGHT CAR LOAD/NGS • on an annual basis, is only slightly below the aggregate COTTON CONSUMPTION for the year 1937. While income has approached the 1937 level with good prospects for the final 2 months PAPER PRODUCT/ON E of the year, the total for the current calendar period will be much less than in 1937 because of the lower PAPER BOARD P/?OD. rate at which income payments were made during the WHEAT FLOUR P/?OD • first three quarters of the year. LUMBER PRODUCT/ON iHOB While goods are flowing into consumption at a higher rate than in August, a considerable part of the increased ELECTR/C POWER PROD. activity in production represents an increment to the volume of goods in process, and a shifting of goods SUGAR MELT/NGS toward the final stages of fabrication. The monthly 00-39-257 survey of wholesalers' inventories showed an increase Figure 2.—Selected Indicators of Industrial Activity, Percentage Increase of but 1 percent in September. The brevity of the for Week Ended October 14 Over the August Average. period between the rising tide of orders and the end of NOTE.—Data for the week ended October 21 are used for steel ingot, bituminous 7 coal, and electric power production. The August weekly average is for the 5 weeks the month, as well as the increase in wholesalers sales of ended September 2. about one-eighth from August to September, were than at the peak in that year, and pay rolls were factors which limited the size of the increase of the considerably less. inventories in this position. The stocks held by depart- The character of the current advance is suggested by ment stores did not increase much more than season- figure 2, where production data for basic industries as ally expected in September. No data are available of mid-October are compared with the August position. for the commitments made by these and other retailers It should be noted that no allowance has been made in except insofar as a marked rise is indicated by what has this chart for seasonal movements from August to happened to wholesalers' sales and manufacturers' orders. October. Pronounced seasonal gains normally occur in Further Production Rise. production of bituminous coal and mill consumption of cotton, and for electric powder and wheat flour the usual The advance in industrial operations during Septem- increases over this period are of appreciable size; ber and October has raised production in the basic whereas for sugar meltings a considerable decline is the industries to the approximate average for the first 8 seasonal experience. Even after allowance for seasonal months of 1937. The magnitude of this 2-month rise increases, steel-ingot production has been advanced has been duplicated only by the exceptional spurt in more than 40 percent and bituminous-coal production the second quarter of 1933. In the current move the almost one-fourth. Federal Reserve adjusted index of production was ad- Steel-ingot production averaged about 90 percent vanced from 103 (1923-25 = 100) for August to 111 for of capacity in October, as compared with the September September, and in October the figure jumped to 120. rate of 71 percent, and the tonnage produced was The basic industries have naturally reflected most slightly larger than in any previous month. The higher SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS November 1939 operations at steel mills have resulted in heavy ship- any time this year, and the volume of other private ments of ore and coke.