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Interest Groups in the Legislative Process Page 46 Introduction Page 5 Grass-Roots Lobbying Page 14 The Paper Chase Page 41 Key Players Page 44 Interest Groups in the Legislative Process Page 46 4 © Copyright 2016 LGS, Inc. INTRODUCTION LOUISIANA POLITICS 2016-2020 Budget woes, conservative majorities and shifting trends. The final year of the 2012-2016 term proved to be just as influential, if not more so, than all of the others that preceded it. With former Gov. Bobby Jindal making his final exit, the Legislature partly overcame a $1.6 billion shortfall and increased spending by passing higher taxes, lowering tax credits, and implementing a variety of short-term budget fixes. A portion of the business utility tax exemption was suspended, a selection of business income tax exemptions were reduced, a cap on the film tax credit was established, and new tax filing standards were created to bring revenue in immediately. Most of these changes were temporary and much of what was debated, from tax alterations to funding formulas, will once again be on the table for 2016. Universities, K-12 schools, health care organizations, and local governments were in line to receive as much money as the previous year, but an $870 million shortfall midway through the 2015-2016 fiscal year put everything in doubt. Moreover, a more than $2 billion gap for the 2016-2017 fiscal year cast major shadows over this new term. Gov. John Bel Edwards took some very unique steps in initially approaching the shortfalls. He created a public Website to take sugges- tions from citizens and asked major network affiliates around the state to carry a live speech from his office just days before his special session convened. Such a “State of the State Address,” which was broadcast across Louisiana on TV and radio, was a rare request for a new administration. “The challenges facing Louisiana are so severe, and the risk of doing nothing is so big, that it is important for me to outline these prob- lems directly to the people,” said Gov. Edwards at the time. “I promised to be open and transparent with the people of Louisiana and give them the facts, and that’s what I intend to do. There are some real consequences if we do not work together to solve the state’s financial problems and I want to personally communicate them to the citizens of our state.” Partisan politics, too, are coming into play like never before. At the beginning of the term, Republicans were holding the largest majority seen in modern times. The GOP has 61 out of 105 House seats and 25 out of 39 in the Senate seat. The lines were more clearly defined in the House for the election of the new speaker when representatives, for the first time in recent history, rejected the handpicked choice of the governor — Edwards backed fellow Democrat Rep. Walt Leger — and elected Republican Rep. Taylor Barras. The end result was the appointment of 12 Republican chairmen, out of 16 standing committees, the most significant GOP sweep anyone can remember for gavels in the lower chamber. Senate President John Alario remains in control of the upper chamber and has installed more of a mix for chairmanships. For example, Democrats are chairing the money committees, with Sen. Eric LaFleur over Finance and Sen. J.P. Morrell over Revenue and Fiscal Af- fairs. If history is any indication, the Senate could become the backstop once more for a Louisiana governor. Another increase was seen for women in the Louisiana Legislature, which last term had fewer women serving than in any other state; women made up just 12 percent of the Legislature. This term there are four more women serving in the House of Representatives, ac- counting for 17 out of 105 seats, and one additional woman in the Senate, totaling five out of 39. If there’s one overwhelming trend heading into the new term and carried over from previous elections, it’s Louisiana’s transformation from a hue of purple, when the two mainline parties co-existed, to its current shade of fire engine red. Republicans have captured all statewide elected offices as well as the House and Senate, but lost the governorship. If anything, Gov. Edwards proved that Democrats could still be elected statewide if they present themselves conservatively and run in the right kind of field. The purple to red shift can clearly be seen in voter registration statistics. There were 605,000 Republicans in the state in 2010, compared to 807,000 in 2015, according to the Secretary of State’s Office, while Democrats have lost 300,000 voters during the same timeframe. Louisiana is trending Republican and that pattern may be perpetuated in the 2016-2020 term. © Copyright 2016 LGS, Inc. 5 INTRODUCTION There are 66,000 more African-American voters compared to seven years ago, in con- trast to a boost of roughly 9,600 new white voters. In recent elections, white voters have CLEARING THE AIR tended to vote in blocs, up to 70-80 percent in support of Republicans, which has made it difficult for Democratic candidates and African-American voters to influence electoral outcomes. But with around 35 to 40 percent of younger voters being African-American, “We are going to the tide could turn in the future. speak the truth, frankly and boldly. In Louisiana’s open primary system, this has created a dynamic where Republicans are We are ending the flooding races against fewer Democratic opponents. When there is only one Democrat against a much larger GOP field, that Democrat can often be guaranteed a runoff spot if era of gimmicks able to solidify the party’s traditional base. and trickery. We’re blowing away the The more interesting statistic to watch for, however, is “other” registration, largely made up of Hispanic and Asian voters. There have been 20,000 new voters added to this catego- smoke and breaking ry since 2007. There have already been double-digit registration increases in small pockets the mirrors regarding around Kenner and Gretna, where the Asian and Hispanic communities have become the state budget.” strong enough to swing elections for state House seats. Also shifting is the media landscape. Daily newspapers are slowing turning more to on- - Commissioner of line presences, relaying more on Websites than printing presses. Bloggers are becoming Administration Jay increasingly influential, as they adopted the digital model years ago. This has prompted Dardenne, on the some elected officials to begin their own blogs as a way of controlling their message and its dissemination. budget approach of the Edwards Opposition to taxes remains strong, revenues are changing and the administration federal government, at least last term, was providing less financial aid to the state than in the past. Much of this had to do with former Gov. Bobby Jindal’s unwillingness to accept 6 © Copyright 2016 LGS, Inc. INTRODUCTION federal dollars. But this term Gov. John Bel Edwards is open to it, and he spent the first few weeks after being sworn in meeting with federal officials. In reviewing the last term, you could say that Louisiana’s budget planners have certainly seen better days. Most of last term was marred by unprecedented bil- lion-dollar budget shortfalls and midyear budget cuts. While Gov. Jindal and the Legislature made some tough decisions to balance these particular budgets, the AKING HE UT M T C factors that created the deficits have persisted and continue into this new term. “If the state budget were In fact, just days before he was inaugurated and sworn into a second term, John likened to a sinking ship, then Bel Edwards’ incoming administration revealed new budget numbers that were a lot of stuff already has been far worse than anyone anticipated. The culprits for that fiscal readjustment are thrown overboard. Govern- telling in that they foreshadow some future challenges for the Legislature and ment cuts and consolidations offer a preview of potential policy debates. Moreover, they represent trends that were a part of the Jindal show no signs of abating, at least through half of this new term. administration’s handling of fiscal matters. Thousands of Oil prices bottomed out, far outstripping all previous forecasts, which made for state positions were eliminated some interesting math. Individual income taxes were also declining, sales tax and thousands more jobs were collections were flat, and corporate income and franchise taxes were looking slug- privatized, mostly notably dur- gish at best. And while Louisiana can take some credit for creating new jobs, it is ing the state Charity hospital important to note that the state’s jobless numbers were falling heading into 2016 privatizations. In some cases as more people left the workforce. the ultimate savings are still in question. Several state agencies took significant cuts in state Louisiana’s Tax Sources general fund spending over Fiscal 2015 time and some others, such as (In Millions) the Corrections Department, saw no budget growth.” Others $862.9 - Robert Scott, president of Gaming the Public Affairs Research $874.6 Sales Tax Council, on the factors $3,088.2 contributing to the state’s fiscal Insurance imbalance $505.8 Gasoline/Diesel $606.0 Excise $199.9 Minerals $1,035.1 PIT CIFT $2,869.4 $350.0 © Copyright 2016 LGS, Inc. 7 INTRODUCTION Asked to sum up the budget situation heading into the new term, Commissioner of Administration Jay Dardenne said, “It requires unprecedented, dramatic, profound changes in the delivery of service at every level of government. It’s not pretty. Legislators are not going to like it and the public isn’t going to like it.” At the top of the list of Louisiana’s worries is a severe drop in personal income tax collections.
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