Contracts and Technology Adoption
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Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work
Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Work The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report The Economics of Artifi cial Intelligence: An Agenda Edited by Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London © 2019 by the National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. All rights reserved. No part of this book may be used or reproduced in any manner whatsoever without written permission, except in the case of brief quotations in critical articles and reviews. For more information, contact the University of Chicago Press, 1427 E. 60th St., Chicago, IL 60637. Published 2019 Printed in the United States of America 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61333-8 (cloth) ISBN-13: 978-0-226-61347-5 (e-book) DOI: https:// doi .org / 10 .7208 / chicago / 9780226613475 .001 .0001 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Agrawal, Ajay, editor. | Gans, Joshua, 1968– editor. | Goldfarb, Avi, editor. Title: The economics of artifi cial intelligence : an agenda / Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb, editors. Other titles: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report. Description: Chicago ; London : The University of Chicago Press, 2019. | Series: National Bureau of Economic Research conference report | Includes bibliographical references and index. Identifi ers: LCCN 2018037552 | ISBN 9780226613338 (cloth : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780226613475 (ebook) Subjects: LCSH: Artifi cial intelligence—Economic aspects. Classifi cation: LCC TA347.A78 E365 2019 | DDC 338.4/ 70063—dc23 LC record available at https:// lccn .loc .gov / 2018037552 ♾ This paper meets the requirements of ANSI/ NISO Z39.48-1992 (Permanence of Paper). -
Understanding Inflation!Indexed Bond Markets
Understanding In‡ation-Indexed Bond Markets John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, and Luis M. Viceira1 First draft: February 2009 This version: May 2009 1 Campbell: Department of Economics, Littauer Center, Harvard University, Cambridge MA 02138, and NBER. Email [email protected]. Shiller: Cowles Foundation, Box 208281, New Haven CT 06511, and NBER. Email [email protected]. Viceira: Harvard Business School, Boston MA 02163 and NBER. Email [email protected]. Campbell and Viceira’s research was sup- ported by the U.S. Social Security Administration through grant #10-M-98363-1-01 to the National Bureau of Economic Research as part of the SSA Retirement Research Consortium. The …ndings and conclusions expressed are solely those of the authors and do not represent the views of SSA, any agency of the Federal Government, or the NBER. We are grateful to Carolin P‡ueger for ex- ceptionally able research assistance, to Mihir Worah and Gang Hu of PIMCO, Derek Kaufman of Citadel, and Albert Brondolo, Michael Pond, and Ralph Segreti of Barclays Capital for their help in understanding TIPS and in‡ation derivatives markets and the unusual market conditions in the fall of 2008, and to Barclays Capital for providing data. An earlier version of the paper was presented at the Brookings Panel on Economic Activity, April 2-3, 2009. We acknowledge the helpful comments of panel members and our discussants, Rick Mishkin and Jonathan Wright. Abstract This paper explores the history of in‡ation-indexed bond markets in the US and the UK. It documents a massive decline in long-term real interest rates from the 1990’suntil 2008, followed by a sudden spike in these rates during the …nancial crisis of 2008. -
Notes and Sources for Evil Geniuses: the Unmaking of America: a Recent History
Notes and Sources for Evil Geniuses: The Unmaking of America: A Recent History Introduction xiv “If infectious greed is the virus” Kurt Andersen, “City of Schemes,” The New York Times, Oct. 6, 2002. xvi “run of pedal-to-the-medal hypercapitalism” Kurt Andersen, “American Roulette,” New York, December 22, 2006. xx “People of the same trade” Adam Smith, The Wealth of Nations, ed. Andrew Skinner, 1776 (London: Penguin, 1999) Book I, Chapter X. Chapter 1 4 “The discovery of America offered” Alexis de Tocqueville, Democracy In America, trans. Arthur Goldhammer (New York: Library of America, 2012), Book One, Introductory Chapter. 4 “A new science of politics” Tocqueville, Democracy In America, Book One, Introductory Chapter. 4 “The inhabitants of the United States” Tocqueville, Democracy In America, Book One, Chapter XVIII. 5 “there was virtually no economic growth” Robert J Gordon. “Is US economic growth over? Faltering innovation confronts the six headwinds.” Policy Insight No. 63. Centre for Economic Policy Research, September, 2012. --Thomas Piketty, “World Growth from the Antiquity (growth rate per period),” Quandl. 6 each citizen’s share of the economy Richard H. Steckel, “A History of the Standard of Living in the United States,” in EH.net (Economic History Association, 2020). --Andrew McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies (New York: W.W. Norton, 2016), p. 98. 6 “Constant revolutionizing of production” Friedrich Engels and Karl Marx, Manifesto of the Communist Party (Moscow: Progress Publishers, 1969), Chapter I. 7 from the early 1840s to 1860 Tomas Nonnenmacher, “History of the U.S. -
Equilibrium Analysis in the Behavioral Neoclassical Growth Model
Equilibrium Analysis in Behavioral One-Sector Growth Models* Daron Acemoglu† and Martin Kaae Jensen‡ December 12, 2020 Abstract Rich behavioral biases, mistakes and limits on rational decision-making are often thought to make equilibrium analysis much more intractable. We establish that this is not the case in the context of one-sector growth models such as Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans or Aiyagari models. We break down the response of the economy to a change in the environment or policy into two parts: the direct response at the given (pre-tax) prices, and the equilibrium response which plays out as prices change. Our main result demonstrates that under weak regularity conditions, re- gardless of the details of behavioral preferences, mistakes and constraints on decision-making, the long-run equilibrium will involve a greater capital-labor ratio if and only if the direct re- sponse (from the corresponding consumption-saving model) involves an increase in aggregate savings. One implication of this result is that, from a qualitative point of view, behavioral biases matter for long-run equilibrium if and only if they change the direction of the direct response. We show how to apply this result with the popular quasi-hyperbolic discounting preferences, self-control and temptation utilities and systematic misperceptions, clarifying the conditions under which usual comparative statics hold and those under which they are reversed. Keywords: behavioral economics, comparative statics, general equilibrium, neoclassical growth. JEL Classification: D90, D50, O41. *We thank Xavier Gabaix for very useful discussion and comments. Thanks also to Drew Fudenberg, Marcus Hagedorn, David Laibson, Paul Milgrom and Kevin Reffett, as well as participants at the TUS-IV-2017 conference in Paris, and seminar participants at Lund University and the University of Oslo for helpful comments and suggestions. -
14.770: Introduction to Political Economy
14.770: Introduction to Political Economy Daron Acemoglu and Benjamin Olken Fall 2018. This course is intended as an introduction to field of political economy. It is the first part of the two-part sequence in political economy, along with 14.773 which will be offered in the spring. Combined the purpose of the two classes is to give you both a sense of the frontier research topics and a good command of the tools in the area. The reading list is intentionally long, to give those of you interested in the field an opportunity to dig deeper into some of the topics in this area. The lectures will cover the material with *'s in detail and also discuss the material without *'s, but in less detail. Grading: Class requirements: • Problem sets (50% of grade). You may work in groups of maximum 2 students on the problem sets, and even then each of you must hand in your own solutions. There will be approximately 5-6 problem sets in total, covering a mix of theory and empirics. • Final Exam. (40% of grade). • Class participation (10% of grade) Course Information: Professors Daron Acemoglu: [email protected] Benjamin Olken: [email protected] Teaching Assistant Mateo Montenegro: mateo [email protected] Lecture MW 10:30-12:00 (E51-376) Recitation F 12:00 - 1:00 (E51-372) 1 Collective Choices and Voting (DA, 9/6 & 9/11) These two lectures introduce some basic notions from the theory of collective choice and the basic static voting models. 1. Arrow, Kenneth J. (1951, 2nd ed., 1963). -
Contracts As Reference Points*
CONTRACTS AS REFERENCE POINTS* Oliver Hart and John Moore July 2006, revised March 2007 We argue that a contract provides a reference point for a trading relationship: more precisely, for parties’ feelings of entitlement. A party’s ex post performance depends on whether he gets what he is entitled to relative to outcomes permitted by the contract. A party who is shortchanged shades on performance. A flexible contract allows parties to adjust their outcome to uncertainty, but causes inefficient shading. Our analysis provides a basis for long-term contracts in the absence of noncontractible investments, and elucidates why “employment” contracts, which fix wage in advance and allow the employer to choose the task, can be optimal. * An early version of this paper was entitled “Partial Contracts.” We are particularly indebted to Andrei Shleifer and Jeremy Stein for useful comments and for urging us to develop Section V. We would also like to thank Philippe Aghion, Jennifer Arlen, Daniel Benjamin, Omri Ben- Shahar, Richard Craswell, Stefano Della Vigna, Tore Ellingsen, Florian Englmaier, Edward Glaeser, Elhanan Helpman, Ben Hermalin, Louis Kaplow, Emir Kamenica, Henrik Lando, Steve Leider, Jon Levin, Bentley MacLeod, Ulrike Malmendier, Sendhil Mullainathan, Al Roth, Jozsef Sakovics, Klaus Schmidt, Jonathan Thomas, Jean Tirole, Joel Watson, Birger Wernerfelt, two editors and three referees for helpful suggestions. In addition we have received useful feedback from audiences at the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods in Bonn, -
Theloerder Institute for Economic Research
-TEL- /WI Theloerder Institute for Economic Research, Tel Aviv University 'The Eitan Berglas School of Economics CRV 44 GIANNINI FOUNDATiON OF GRIcULTURAL NOIVIICS Trim inivu raT wily' 173'73 li7n1)i7 IDD TaTi-17J1 110'011'31N mann iv1rY7 no`71-17Dri JOHN NASH: THE MASTER OF ECONOMIC MODELING by Ariel Rubinstein* Working Paper No.29-94 November, 1994 * The Eitan Berglas School of Economics, Tel-Aviv University and Princeton University Prepared for the Scandinavian Journal of Economics THE FOERDER INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH Faculty of Social Sciences Tel-Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Israel. page 2 1. John Nash During the past two decades non-cooperative game theory has become a central topic in economic theory. Many scholars have contributed to this revolution, none more than John Nash. Following the publication of von Neumann and Morgenstern's book, it was Nash's papers in the early fifties that pointed the way for future research in game theory. The notion of Nash equilibrium is indispensable. Nash's formulation of the bargaining problem and the Nash bargaining solution constitute the cornerstone of modern bargaining theory. His insights into the non-cooperative foundations of cooperative game theory initiated an area of research known as the Nash program. His analysis of the demand game, in which he uses a perturbation of a game to select an equilibrium, inspired the construction of several refinements of the notion of Nash equilibrium. A scholar's influence does not necessarily qualify him for a Nobel prize. One may argue that such awards are a social institution established to serve social goals. -
FE Guerra-Pujol* More Than Fifty Years Ago Ronald Coase Published
MODELLING THE COASE THEOREM F E Guerra-Pujol* More than fifty years ago Ronald Coase published ‘The Problem of Social Cost’. In his paper, Professor Coase presents an intriguing idea that has since become known among economists and lawyers as the ‘Coase Theorem’. Unlike most modern forms of economic analysis, however, Coase’s Theorem is based on a verbal argument and is almost always proved arithmetically. That is to say, the Coase Theorem is not really a theorem in the formal or mathematical sense of the word. Our objective in this paper, then, is to remedy this deficiency by formalizing the logic of the Coase Theorem. In summary, we combine Coase’s intuitive insights with the formal methods of game theory. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................... 180 II. BRIEF BACKGROUND: THEORETICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF THE COASE THEOREM .................................................................................... 180 III. COASE’S ARITHMETICAL MODELS OF THE COASE THEOREM (STRAY CATTLE AND RAILWAY SPARKS) ................................................ 182 1. Stray Cattle ..................................................................................... 182 2. Railway Sparks ............................................................................... 184 3. Some Non-Arithmetical Models of Coase’s Theorem ........................... 185 IV. COASIAN GAMES ...................................................................................... 189 1. A Two-Player Coasian -
Georgy Egorov
GEORGY EGOROV Curriculum Vitae January 2013 Dept. of Managerial Economics and Decision Sciences Ph: +1-847-467-2154 Kellogg School of Management Fax: +1-847-467-1220 Northwestern University [email protected] Personal Born October 12, 1979, in Moscow Russian citizen, U.S. permanent resident Academic positions 2010 – Assistant Professor of Managerial Economics, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University 2010 – Faculty Research Fellow, NBER 2009 – 2010 Senior Lecture & Jacobs Scholar (tenure-track), Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University Higher education 2005 – 2009 Ph.D. in Economics, Harvard University 2005 – 2008 M.A. in Economics, Harvard University 2001 – 2003 M.A. in Economics (cum laude), New Economic School, Moscow majors in Economic Policy, Finance, Managerial Economics 1996 – 2001 M.S. in Mathematics (summa cum laude), Moscow State University, Dept. of Mechanics and Mathematics Research interests Political economy, economic theory, game theory Teaching experience 2011 – Social Choice and Voting Models (graduate) 2010 – Values and Crisis Decision-Making (part-time MBA program) 2006-2008 TA at Harvard University: Contract Theory (graduate), Economic Theory (graduate), Game Theory in Economics (undergraduate) 2003-2004 TA at New Economic School: Political Economy, Auction Theory (both graduate) 2003-2004 TA, then lecturer, State University of the Humanities (Moscow): Public Economics (undergraduate) Other employment and education 2007 – 2009 Research Assistant (Harvard, MIT, NBER) 2003 – 2005 -
Why Did the West Extend the Franchise?: Democracy, Inequality and Growth in Historical Perspective
WHYDID THEWEST EXTEND THEFRANCHISE? DEMOCRACY,INEQUALITY,AND GROWTHIN HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE* DARON ACEMOGLU AND JAMES A. ROBINSON During thenineteenth century mostWestern societies extended voting rights, adecisionthat led tounprecedented redistributive programs. We argue that these politicalreforms can be viewed as strategic decisions by the political elite to preventwidespread social unrest and revolution. Political transition, rather than redistributionunder existing political institutions, occurs becausecurrent trans- fersdo not ensure future transfers, while the extension of the franchise changes futurepolitical equilibria and acts as a commitmentto redistribution. Our theory alsooffers a novelexplanation for the Kuznets curve inmany Western economies duringthis period, with the fall in inequality following redistribution due to democratization. I. INTRODUCTION Thenineteenth century was aperiodof fundamental political reformand unprecedentedchanges in taxation and redistribu- tion.Britain, forexample, was transformedfrom an ‘‘oligarchy’’ runby an eliteto a democracy.Thefranchise was extendedin 1832 and thenagain in 1867 and 1884, transferringvoting rights toportionsof the society with noprevious political representation. Thedecades afterthe political reformswitnessed radical social reforms,increased taxation, and theextension of educationto the masses.Moreover, as notedby Kuznets,inequality ,whichwas previouslyincreasing, started todecline during this period:the Gini coefficientfor income inequality in England and Waleshad risenfrom -
Download CES and Research Data Centers Research Report
Center for Economic Studies and Research Data Centers Research Report: 2013 Research and Methodology Directorate Issued May 2014 U.S. Department of Commerce Economics and Statistics Administration U.S. CENSUS BUREAU census.gov MISSION The Center for Economic Studies partners with stakeholders within and outside the U.S. Census Bureau to improve measures of the economy and people of the United States through research and innovative data products. HISTORY The Center for Economic Studies (CES) was established in 1982. CES was designed to house new longitudinal business databases, develop them further, and make them available to qualified researchers. CES built on the foundation laid by a generation of visionaries, including Census Bureau executives and outside academic researchers. Pioneering CES staff and academic researchers visiting the Census Bureau began fulfilling that vision. Using the new data, their analyses sparked a revolution of empirical work in the economics of industrial organization. The Census Research Data Center (RDC) network expands researcher access to these important new data while ensuring the secure access required by the Census Bureau and other providers of data made available to RDC researchers. The first RDC opened in Boston, Massachusetts, in 1994. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many individuals within and outside the Census Bureau contributed to this report. Randy Becker coordinated the production of this report and wrote, compiled, or edited its various parts. Matthew Graham and Robert Pitts authored Chapter 2, C. J. Krizan authored Chapter 3, and Lucia Foster, Todd Gardner, Christopher Goetz, Cheryl Grim, Henry Hyatt, Mark Kutzbach, Giordano Palloni, Kristin Sandusky, James Spletzer, and Alice Zawacki all con- tributed to Chapter 4. -
Economic Globalization
Economic Globalization Academic Year: 2016/2017 Semester: 4th Term Instructor(s): Isabel Horta Correia Course Description: Facts of globalization. Globalization and Macro in Open Economies. Competitiveness and Productivity. The distribution of the gains of globalization. Policies for/against globalization. ___________________________________________________________________________ Course Content: 1- Macroeconomics in a global economy. 2- Global imbalances. 3- What is globalization? 2- Facts on globalization. 3- Competitiveness and productivity. 4- Gains from globalization. 5- The distribution across countries and across agents of globalization gains/losses and the political economy of globalization. ____________________________________________________________________________ Course Objectives: Understanding of the globalization controversy with the economist lens. The myths and its robustness to economic theory. _____________________________________________________________________________ Grading: Intermediate continuous evaluation: 50% Final test: 50% Extra Costs (case studies, platforms...): Not applicable _____________________________________________________________________________ Suggested Bibliography: • Ruo Chen, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Thierry Tressel, 2013, “External imbalances in the eurozone”, Economic Policy, pp. 101–142 • Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti and Cédric Tille, 2011 ,“The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis”, Economic Policy, pp. 289–346 • Sascha O. Becker and Marc-Andreas