From: on Behalf of Panel Registry Subject: FW: TNG Registration of Presenters for the Topic Specific Hearings April 26-May 3Rd

file:///C|/Documents%20and%20Settings/mckeagep/My%20Documents/Prosperity/Hearings/hearing%20registry/apr%2019/TNG%20submission.htm From: on behalf of Panel Registry Subject: FW: TNG registration of presenters for the topic specific hearings April 26-May 3rd.

Attachments: McCrory CV Apri l2010.pdf; Prosperity Project - Written Submission for Kevin Morin April 16 2010.pdf; McCrory Submission Prosperity Panel 16Apr2010.pdf; Hartman Fish Habitat Compensation Project review-final 4.16.2010.pdf; Select DFO Documents from TNG Access to Information Act Request.PDF; TNG Community_Based Impacts Submission P Larcombe 4.16.2010. pdf; TNG Presenters List for Technical Sessions April 16 2010 (2).pdf

From: Amy Crook [mailto:[email protected]] Sent: Friday, April 16, 2010 4:55 PM To: Prosperity Review [CEAA] Cc: Jay Nelson; Sean Nixon; Marilyn Baptiste; Roger William; Percy Guichon; Bernie Elkins; [email protected]; Joe Alphonse; Crystal Verhaeghe; Matthias Starzner; Patt Larcombe Subject: TNG registration of presenters for the topic specific hearings April 26-May 3rd.

Colette, please find attached, on behalf of TNG, the list of presenters and supporting information for the topic specific hearings in Williams Lake from April 26-May 3rd.

I will be sending two emails because the attachments are so large. Please confirm that you have received these emails with the attachments (as itemized in CSP2’s letter to you). Thanks.

Amy Crook Centre for Science in Public Participation 2543 Wesley Place Victoria, BC V8T 1V1 [email protected] 250 721-3627

file:///C|/Documents%20and%20Settings/mckeagep/My%20Do...rings/hearing%20registry/apr%2019/TNG%20submission.htm [4/19/2010 12:47:16 PM] CENTRE for SCIENCE in PUBLIC PARTICIPATION Amy Crook, 2543 Wesley Place, Victoria, British Columbia Canada V8T 1V1 2 Phone/Fax: (250) 721-3627 web: www.csp2.org / e-mail: [email protected] “Technical Support for Grassroots Public Interest Groups” CSP Colette Spagnuolo April 16, 2010 Panel Manager Canadian Environmental Assessment Agency 160 Elgin St. Ottawa ON K1A 0H3 [email protected]

Dear Colette,

Re: Technical presentations on behalf of TNG for specific topic panel hearings

On behalf of the Tsilhqot’in National Government, we are submitting the following list of presenters for the topic specific panel hearings in Williams Lake. We have included the presenters name, affiliation, their preferred date(s) for presenting and a summary of their presentation along with supporting references.

Several of our presenters have very limited time availability and have requested as much specificity as possible for when they will present. We have no funding to retain them for additional time if the hearing schedules change during the week. We’d appreciate your accommodation of our requests to the maximum extent possible and we acknowledge your difficult challenge of coordinating the panel hearings.

The TNG will have a technical team present for the duration of the technical sessions, and would appreciate having a table and microphone set up in the hearing room where we can work and have the necessary documents readily available. We anticipate the size of our group to average 4 people throughout the week. Please confirm if this possible.

This letter includes the following:

Attachment A An outline of the topics Dr. Kevin Morin will present Attachment B A summary of Stratus Consulting’s presentation and references Attachment C Information on the Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance (UFFCA) and contact information for Chief Thomas Alexis Attachment D Dr. Gordon Hartman’s CV

Stand alone PDF files attached to this letter include:

1) Dr. Gordon Hartman’s review of the fish compensation plan 2) Dr. Patt Larcombe’s summary of the impacts to Tsilhqot’in current use and cultural values from the proposed project 3) Mr. Wayne McCrory’s CV 4) Mr. Wayne McCrory’s summary of terrestrial ecosystem impacts from the proposed project 5) Xeni Gwet’in’s community based climate change adaptation plan 6) Select documents from the Department of Fisheries and Oceans regarding the proposed project, released to TNG under the Access to Information Act. SESSION-SPECIFIC COMMENTS & REQUESTS

1. Water Quality and Quantity

Our presentation of concerns with the water quality and quantity impact assessment is complex and multi-faceted. We urge the panel to give adequate time for this issue to be fully discussed. We will have several experts presenting at the hearings, at significant expense.

Our water quality experts are available only on April 26th and 27th. We do not have the funding, nor do they have the time to extend their presence in Williams Lake later than 5 pm Tuesday April 27th. Thus, we request the water quality and quantity issues be heard starting Monday morning, April 26th through Tuesday afternoon, April 27th.

Dr. Kevin Morin, P.Geo., L.Hydrogeo. Minesite Drainage Assessment Group Dr. Morin will present a summary of his findings on the adequacy of Taseko’s estimation of acid rock drainage and metal leaching. His presentation will address the material submitted by the proponent to date. An outline of the topics Dr. Morin will present is appended to this letter as Attachment A. Dr. Morin’s presentation will take about 1.5 hours.

Dr. Ann Maest, Dr. Cameron Wobus, Dr. Josh Lipton, Dr. Jeff Morris, Mr. James Holmes, and Ms. Constance Travers, Stratus Consulting Inc. The Stratus Consulting group will assess Taseko’s information presented to date including: contaminant sources, geochemical testing, geochemical modeling, mine site water balance and hydrogeology, tailings storage facility seepage estimation, accuracy of water quality impact prediction at Prosperity mine and case studies from other mines, and prediction of toxic effects on salmonid fisheries. A summary of Stratus Consulting’s presentation and key references are appended to this letter as Attachment B. We will need teleconference capability for this presentation. Stratus Consulting’s presentation will take about 2 hours.

2. Fishery stocks, habitat and fish compensation plan

Chief Thomas Alexis from the Tl'azt'en Nation Chief Alexis will be addressing the panel on behalf of the Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance (UFFCA) on the importance of the Chilco Salmon runs to First Nations as a traditional and cultural food source. Information on UFFCA and contact information for Chief Alexis is appended to this letter as Attachment C. Chief Thomas’s presentation is expected to take ½ hour.

Tsilhqot’in fishery experts and Dr. Jeff Morris, Stratus Consulting These presenters will focus on the importance of the salmon fishery within traditional Tsilhqot’in territory. The experts will build upon the fish toxicology presentation of Dr. Morris and present information about potential project impacts on salmon within the Taseko River and by extension the Chilcotin River watershed. This presentation is expected to take ½ an hour.

Dr. Gordon Hartman Dr. Hartman will present his review of the fish compensation plan. Dr. Hartman’s CV is appended to this letter as Attachment D. Dr. Hartman’s written submission are attached as a stand-alone PDF file 2 with this letter. Dr. Hartman is only available to attend the hearings for one day and has requested the chance to speak between 11 am and 3 pm on Wednesday, April 28th. Dr. Hartman’s presentation will take about 1 hour.

3. Terrestrial Ecosystem

Wayne McCrory RPBio. of McCrory Wildlife Services Ltd. Mr. McCrory will present his review of the wildlife impact assessment information presented to date by the proponent. Mr. McCrory’s CV, written submission and reference material are attached as separate PDF files to this letter. Mr. McCrory will refer to the Xeni Gwet’in Community Based Climate Change Adaptation Plan (attached as a stand along PDF file with this letter) in his presentation. Mr. McCrory’s presentation will take about an hour and he prefers to present on April 29th-30th.

4. Socioeconomic Issues

Ms. Patt Larcombe, Symbion Consultants Ms. Larcombe’s presentation to the Panel will entail: (1) summarizing the evidence provided by Tsilhqot’in members during the Community Hearings on current use and cultural values; and (2) conclusions regarding social, economic, cultural and health impacts, including Project impacts on current use based upon community evidence and professional opinion. Ms. Larcombe did not have an opportunity to deliver her presentation on community-based impacts associated with mining projects at the Xeni Gwet’in hearing due to time constraints and therefore, she is submitting that presentation to the Panel in writing at this time (stand alone PDF file attached to this letter). Ms. Larcombe will require about one hour for her presentation. Ms. Larcombe must make her presentation some time on Thursday, April 29th as she must leave Williams Lake by noon on Friday, April 30th to return home for scheduled surgery on the morning of May 1st .

Please confirm the requested time slots for presenters as soon as possible so that we can make the necessary arrangements. Thank you for your consideration of our submission. Please contact me with any questions.

Sincerely,

Amy Crook BC Program Director

Attachment A Written Submission for Kevin Morin

In 2009, Dr. Kevin Morin presented comments on the Prosperity EIS/A. Taseko Mines Limited responded to his comments under the provincial and federal reviews. Dr. Morin will review his comments and Taseko’s responses to them. His presentation will address some or all of the topics set out below.

REVIEW OF ML-ARD AND MINESITE WATER CHEMISTRY IN THE EIS/A

1 PAG vs. Non-PAG Materials at the Prosperity Project 2 Professional Certification 3 Mine Plan 4 Rock and Overburden 5 ML-ARD Predictions

5.1 Number of ABA samples 5.2 Kinetic Tests 5.3 Unavailable NP 5.4 Criteria for Differentiating "PAG" and "non-PAG" Rock 5.5 Lag Time for PAG Material to Become Acidic 5.6 Effect of Waste Rock Misclassification 5.7 Equilibrium Levels in Aqueous Concentrations

6 Tailings 7 Dissolved vs. Total Aqueous Concentrations 8 Nitrogen Species from Explosives Used During Mining 9 Expected Exceedances of Water-Quality Guidelines 10 Prosperity Lake and Beece Creek

WATER MOVEMENT IN THE EIS/A

1 Draft Reports and Third-Party Liability 2 Professional Certification 3 Perpetually Submerged PAG Rock in the TSF

REVIEW OF SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTS FROM TASEKO MINES LIMITED, RELATED TO ML-ARD, DRAINAGE CHEMISTRY, AND WATER MOVEMENT

1 Prosperity EA Review. Taseko Mines Limited Responses to June 24, 2009 Federal Review Panel Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement, Information Requests from the Federal Review Panel, 1.0 Alternatives Assessment, I.R 1.1 Tailings and Waste Rock Storage Area

2 Prosperity EA Review. Taseko Mines Limited Responses to June 24, 2009 Federal Review Panel Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement. Information Requests from the Federal Review Panel, 4.0 Water Quality, I.R 4.1 Long Term Treatment of Pit Lake Water Quality 4

3 Prosperity EA Review. Taseko Mines Limited Responses to June 24, 2009 Federal Review Panel Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement. Information Requests from the Federal Review Panel, 4.0 Water Quality, I.R 4.2 Effects of the Low Grade Ore Stockpile on Water Quality

4 Prosperity EA Review. Taseko Mines Limited Responses to June 24, 2009 Federal Review Panel Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement. Information Requests from the Federal Review Panel, 4.0 Water Quality, I.R 4.3 Stratification of Pit Lake

5 Thompson, C., and T. Crozier. 2009. Documentation Error in June 30, 2008 DRAFT Numerical Hydrogeologic Analysis Report. BGC Engineering Inc., BGC Project Memorandum PG09-02, to Taseko Mines Limited, dated June 12, 2009

6 Prosperity EA Review. Taseko Mines Limited Responses to June 24, 2009 Federal Review Panel Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement. Information Requests from the Federal Review Panel, 3.0 Hydrology, I.R 3.1 Site Water Balance for Prosperity Lake and Tailings Storage Facility

7 Prosperity EA Review. Taseko Mines Limited Responses to June 24, 2009 Federal Review Panel Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project – Deficiency Statement, Information Requests from the Federal Review Panel, 3.0 Hydrology, I.R 3.2 Effects of Project on Beece Creek

Attachment B Written Submission for Stratus Consulting

Attachment C Information on UFFCA and Chief Thomas Alexis contact information

Chief Thomas Alexis contact information:

Email- [email protected] Cell- 250 996-1493

The Upper Fraser Fisheries Conservation Alliance promotes accountability in the conservation, protection, and sustainable harvest of UFFCA fish populations, as well as the health of the ecosystems upon which they depend. The UFFCA provides information regarding the state of the UFFCA Fish stocks and fisheries habitat.

The UFFCA promotes and encourages:

• Inclusive and transparent decision making regarding fisheries issues in the UFFCA area.

• Stewardship of fisheries resources and sustainable harvesting practice

• Sustainability in fisheries management and practices,

• Cultural values associated with ancient practices The UFFCA provides advice and support services to UFFCA member communities on a range of issues from conservation and harvest planning and fisheries management, to environmental assessments and field science. The Alliance’s role is to support community based initiatives which support the overall strategic plan. The Alliance also assists with procuring resources for science and research while developing a continuous program of capacity development. The Alliance was created by 2005 under the Federal Department of Fisheries, Aboriginal Aquatic Resource & Oceans Management (AAROM) program. The key roles of the UFFCA are:

• Provide technical analysis and advice on stock conservation including the identification of stocks in need of conservation actions.

• Review federal; (and to a lesser degree) provincial fisheries programs, stock and habitat assessments, enhancement initiatives, and government policies and practices related to conservation of UFFCA stocks of interest.

• Respect and honor the role of Aboriginal Traditional Knowledge (ATK) and its role in informing and furthering science.

Attachment D Dr. Gordon Hartman’s CV and written submission

Gordon F. Hartman, Ph.D. Brief C.V.

Education

B.A., M.A., and Ph.D., 1954, 1956, and 1964 respectively from the University of British Columbia. One year doctoral program study at the Zoological Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.

Experience

Total of 57 years. Includes nine years in fisheries work concurrent with expanding my education, 18 years in research, five years+ in university teaching, eight years in management, and 12 years with consulting, writing, and three years international work in Africa. Totals do not add up completely because some experience times overlap.

Publications

About 95 altogether. Some are un-refereed , and some are popular outlet papers. Recently, several publications deal with macro-ecology. Co-author/editor with Dr. T. Northcote on a 789 page book on forestry-fisheries interactions – world-wide coverage.

Environmental Assessments

It may be relevant to add that I have been involved in assessing effects of hydro-electric projects (Kemano Completion, Revelstoke Dam, and the Oldman River Dam). I did a review of the Viphya Pulp- mill Project in Malawi. In 1999 I did a preliminary review of the proposed Prosperity Gold-Copper mine at Fish Lake. Other projects include assessment of three different stream restoration projects in Alberta and B.C. These latter projects were done in collaboration with a professional geomorphologist.

Attachment A-Written Submission for Kevin Morin

In 2009, Dr. Kevin Morin presented comments on the Prosperity EIS/A. Taseko Mines Limited then responded to his comments under the provincial and federal reviews. Dr. Morin will review his comments and Taseko’s responses to them. His presentation will follow the Table of Contents as listed below.

REVIEW OF ML-ARD AND MINESITE WATER CHEMISTRY IN THE EIS/A 1 PAG vs. Non-PAG Materials at the Prosperity Project 2 Professional Certification 3 Mine Plan 4 Rock and Overburden 5 ML-ARD Predictions 5.1 Number of ABA samples 5.2 Kinetic Tests 5.3 Unavailable NP 5.4 Criteria for Differentiating "PAG" and "non-PAG" Rock 5.5 Lag Time for PAG Material to Become Acidic 5.6 Effect of Waste Rock Misclassification 5.7 Equilibrium Levels in Aqueous Concentrations 6 Tailings 7 Dissolved vs. Total Aqueous Concentrations 8 Nitrogen Species from Explosives Used During Mining 9 Expected Exceedances of Water-Quality Guidelines 10 Prosperity Lake and Beece Creek

WATER MOVEMENT IN THE EIS/A 1 Draft Reports and Third-Party Liability 2 Professional Certification 3 Perpetually Submerged PAG Rock in the TSF

REVIEW OF SUPPLEMENTARY DOCUMENTS FROM TASEKO MINES LIMITED, RELATED TO ML-ARD, DRAINAGE CHEMISTRY, AND WATER MOVEMENT

Taseko Mines Ltd., Prosperity Gold-Copper Project – Fisheries and Environmental Issues G.F. Hartman, Ph.D. April 2010 Introduction The Tsilhqot’in People have requested the author to provide comments on the Prosperity Gold-Copper Project which Taseko Mines is proposing to develop in the Fish Creek watershed which is located about 125 km southwest of Williams Lake, B.C. This paper focuses on fisheries and related environmental issues, and considers, particularly the habitat compensation aspects of the Taseko Mines proposal. The author inspected the project area on September 22, 1999 while working on a contract for the Canada Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO). The author and Mr. M. Miles, P. Geo., were retained earlier by DFO to review the success of various mining related habitat projects which attempted to provide compensatory habitat for rainbow trout. The results of this investigation were published in the report Assessment of techniques for Rainbow trout Planting and Habitat Management in British Columbia, Prepared for the Department Fisheries and Oceans; G.F. Hartman and M. Miles (1999), 73 pages + Appendices. This report did not include the Taseko Mines proposal, but contained findings relevant to the concerns that I have about the compensation aspects of the proposal. The principal objective of this report is to review fisheries related sections of documents on the Taseko Mines proposal for the project. These documents include: Volume 5, Biotic Environment, and Volume 3, Section 8, Fisheries Compensation Plan, both are parts of the Environmental Impact Statement/Application, Taseko Mines Limited, Prosperity Gold-Copper Project (March 2009) ; The Panel Review Under the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, Application for the Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project, submitted by Fisheries and Oceans, Canada, March 12, 2010, and Review of the

Prosperity Mine Aquatic Impact Assessment prepared for MiningWatch Canada by Dr. David Levy, (2009). This report concurs with the evaluations of the Taseko Mines proposal that were made by Dr. Levy (Mining Watch), and the DFO. After reviewing relevant sections of these documents I have concluded that if the mine is developed as indicated in the project documents, the project will have profound and detrimental effect of the Fish Lake/Little Fish Lake ecological system. Water movement and flow direction would be drastically altered, the two lakes would be eliminated, and the land around the site of Fish Lake would be altered by mining facilities infrastructure. Substantive biological issues include; near total disruption of the aquatic environment, detrimental effects on fish production and sustainability. These impacts interface negatively with historically based use by indigenous people, current recreational potential, and esthetic qualities. All are important. In my view, the Taseko Mines proposal for compensations comes nowhere near making up for ecosystem loss and disruption that it would be caused if the mine is developed as planned. The Mine Plan – Ecosystem Changes The mine plan includes five important elements of watershed change as part of its development and operation. The changes are:

• Change in direction and location of water movement and flow by construction of a 10.8 km Headwater Channel (HC) to the east of the present NW flowing Fish Creek system,

• Creation of a Headwater Channel Retention Pond (HCRP) for storage of collected water,

• Creation of an engineered spawning and rearing channel between the HCRP and a newly created ‘lake’ (Prosperity Lake),

• Creation of, Prosperity Lake, south of a 1.6 km. dyke that serves to contain the south end of the Tailings Storage Facility (TSF) “Lake”, and

• The diversion of outflow from Prosperity Lake to Wasp Lake and thence to Beece Creek. Part of this route appears to be through wooded terrain (Google Imagery). Following closure of the mining operation, the plan includes redirection of the water that enters Prosperity Lake through the TSF, down over or around the dyke at its north end. Such flow is proposed to be used to fill the mine pit. After about 27 years, when the pit is full, the water will flow through it and down into the original Fish Creek Outlet, thence to the Taseko River. Water that flowed southward from Prosperity Lake-Wasp Lake to Beece Creek will no longer run through that route. Risks and Challenges in Making a Multiple Component, Multiple Stage Mitigation System Work The following sections examine Taseko Mines’ multi- component fish production compensation system. A fraction of other less complex compensation projects have functioned successfully over the time periods for which they were evaluated. Some have failed, and others have required maintenance over time. However, whatever is built to replace Fish Lake, Little Fish Lake, and the aquatic/terrestrial system of which they are a part, must function successfully and indefinitely into the future as an integrated system. There are fisheries ecological components, funding components, and government elements to such sustained maintenance. The issue of long term mining company support may be more problematic. The Headwater Channel The 10.8 km Headwater Channel, lying to the east of Fish Lake and Little Fish Lake, is the key component in the supply of water for compensation facilities. If the mitigation/compensation system is to be successful, the HC has to function to:

• Collect water but, as proposed, not to lose it beyond about 15%,

• Remain stable and capable of conveying peak flows, during its indefinitely long life, and

• Provide water of appropriate thermal character for trout. The documents prepared do not, in my opinion, provide adequate explanation of the design that will allow the channel to collect ground water while preventing entrained water from leaving it. The project documents indicate that the channel may be lined in some sections to make it impervious. If this is the case, how might sub-surface water enter such a structure? The channel is proposed to be one meter across the bottom with sloping sides 1:1.5, with a cross-sectional area of about 2.6 square meters. It is stated that it will withstand 1:100 year floods. However, adequate information on flood return times is not given in the Fisheries Compensation Plan. The plan indicates that the average flow, during May, through the HC at the 4, 5, 6, and 7 km locations, will be 0.330, 0.413, 0.459, and 0.578 cubic meters per second respectively. These data are not accompanied by information on flow extremes. What are the potential flow levels and water velocities in, for example, 10, 50, 100, and year return period events? In my opinion there is risk and uncertainty in this part of the plan. The information on the thermal characteristics of water flowing north to south through the HC, and thus exposed to radiant energy at the peak of day, is inadequate. The length is 10.8 km., flow volumes are relatively low in the north end of the channel, and the banks are open along its length. Notwithstanding the fact that main flows occur in May, there is potential for water warming along the channel. Water temperature questions in regard to the HC are important, because warming effects in the channel will be additive to those in the HCRP. The Headwater Channel Retention Pond The 26.1 ha HCRP is intended to store water, which will be released into the spawning and rearing channel during the spring and summer incubation and early rearing period. The maximum depth of the pond is to be 5 m. The morphometric data for the

HCRP are not given. However, the bottom will slope upward, toward the east, from the three-section containment dyke. Will soil bioengineering or other measures be used to control erosion by wind and waves around the HCRP? The HCRP is to be filled each spring, by the end of May or early June (Fig. 8-8, Section 8, Compensation Plan), and gradually emptied, starting in April (the start date in April not given, but outflow and inflow will overlap for part of April and all of May), proceeding through the summer months, and ramping down to nil by September 15. During the latter part of this storage and release period, i.e. July 1 to September 15, the water in the HCRP will be particularly vulnerable to excess warming. The documents reviewed do not provide adequate information on and analysis of the thermal characteristics of the water to be released from the HCRP. This information will be particularly important during the latter part of the spawning and rearing period.

Spawning and Rearing Channel The compensation plan does not indicate what the water temperatures will be in the spawning and rearing channel during the period, late July to September. During this period, water already warm from its time in the HCRP, will warm further during its movement through the riffles and alcoves in the spawning/rearing channel. The project documents do not present data on temperature patterns, that will occur during the operation of the channel. This does not allow full evaluation of temperature effects on fish in the channel. This is another area of unknowns and potential risk. The matter that is important, in considering the former three interdependent components, is that each and all must function in order that the compensation system works. The quality of function and the likelihood of failure is an artifact of the complexity of the system. It will be a challenge to achieve success. Where the environmental issues are important, and where there is serious public concern about a project, compensation must be more than

something that is proposed and ‘put out there’ to be ‘fixed’ later if it does not work. The public deserves better. Prosperity Lake - Shoreline Erosion Beyond consideration of the three above compensation elements, the newly formed lake must provide productive and sediment free habitat for the trout fry that enter it. The compensation plan does not address the question of shoreline erosion and sediment suspension, caused by wind and wave action, during the first few years following the lake filling. This matter may be relevant because of the potential distribution of young trout in Prosperity Lake. Young trout upon entering Loon Lake (near Clinton B.C.) tended to remain near shore, following their entry, during the late summer. Will the near shore littoral zone be free from suspended sediment during windy conditions, and will the lake bottom in this zone be stable and free enough of moving sediment to provide food and/or permit feeding among young trout? These questions are not discussed in the compensation plan.

Providing for No Net Loss If we move past the above four parts of the water provision system, in which the potentials for risk or failure are additive, there is then serious doubt that the compensation program could provide ‘like for like’ particularly at the commonly prescribed ratio of 2:1 for compensatory area to lost habitat area. Lake Replacement The Environmental Impact Statement, Summary section, Fish and Fish Habitat, page 1-4, states that “The Compensation Plan has been designed to go beyond the replacement of surface area of lost habitat and address some of the regional MOE priorities … etc.” Information in the “Compensation Plan’ itself does not indicate that such will happen.

Prosperity Lake at 113 ha does not have a larger surface area than Fish and Little Fish lakes combined, 111 plus 6.6 ha. While the difference in the two totals is not great in itself, it is simply inappropriate to ignore one of the two lakes destroyed while making comparisons. It may be even more inappropriate to state that the 113 ha lake would “go beyond the replacement of surface area of lost habitat.” A second consideration, in the comparison of lake habitat created, is the character of the habitat. One such lake characteristic is littoral area. It is a critically important aspect of a lake’s productivity and capacity to support fish. The combined littoral areas of Fish and Little Fish lakes are 90.1 ha. The littoral area of Prosperity Lake, if built, will be 49 ha. (Table 8-2, Fisheries Compensation Plan). This does not “go beyond….” A third lake feature that is important in consideration of lake productivity is shoreline perimeter in relation to surface area – edge effect. Prosperity Lake and Fish Lake have almost the same in surface area, 113 to 111 ha respectively. The perimeter of Fish Lake is 11,756 m vs. 7886 for Prosperity Lake (page 8-20, Section 8, Fisheries Compensation Plan). Stream Replacement The amount of replacement stream does not make up for the amount of natural stream lost either in terms of length or functional character. The mine and tailings facilities, if built, will destroy approximately 2.5 km of outlet stream and 4 km of inlet stream, the latter in two tributaries. The analysis by DFO stated that a total wetted fish bearing area of 64,087 sq. m., which shrinks to 34,746 sq. m. during low water, would be impacted along with the ephemeral stream habitat below the barrier in the outlet of Fish Lake. The destruction of the Fish Lake outlet stream constitutes both spawning and rearing habitat loss, involving rearing habitat which supports fish up to >1 year of age. The two inlet streams support spawning and early rearing. A portion of the inlet habitat supports fish rearing to ages greater than one year. Stream channel area lost is located primarily in meadow or wetland habitat. Such habitat, with

adjacent meadow or lowland areas around it, is buffered against dewatering and warming. Reproduction within three separate components of a lake-stream system offers biological insurance because if one tributary undergoes natural impairment, the others will sustain reproduction. The single 2.2 km inlet channel proposed does not replace the three lost streams in terms of area, habitat function, duration of function, or certainty of function. The inlet channel, if built, would be a 2.2 km long. It is planned to function from April16 to September 15, with the last 15 days including “ramping down” flows. Such temporally limited, spatially unequal, and functionally limited channel habitat does not compensate, ‘like for like’, for the loss of natural stream habitat in any sense whatever. Numbers of Fish ‘Replaced’ The compensation project, if implemented, does not replace fish in the numbers that would be lost. Fish Lake is ‘considered’ to be capable of supporting 85,000 trout composed of a mix of age classes. The outlet stream is ‘estimated’ to produce 8,000 one year old trout (page 8-9, section 8.3.2.3, Fisheries Compensation Plan). In its fish number discussion the compensation plan, according to DFO, does not consider the 80,000 trout associated with the tributaries and Little Fish Lake. The replacement channel would support 50 pairs of spawners that would produce 1,500 eggs per female for a total of 75,000 eggs. The Prosperity Lake inlet stream is planned to support 30,000 fry until the end of September. If all such fry were to survive each consecutive year for three years, there would be 90,000 trout ranging from < 1 year to <3 years. Not only is such a survival rate highly unlikely, but it would produce numbers amounting to about half of the total number of trout estimated to be within the Fish Lake system. Furthermore it does not include 4 to 6 year old fish, those that are the prime size sought by anglers . The spawning/rearing channel would not replace the trout numbers habitat or productivity that would be lost through mine

development. It would, indeed, be a ‘pale shadow’ of such production. Mine Closure The system will not be able to return to pre-development conditions at mine closure. The outlet flow through Wasp Lake will be redirected from Prosperity Lake northward through the tailing impoundment and downward around the high wall at the north end of the impoundment. The north flowing water will not join the remnant flow of Fish Creek toward the Taseko River for approximately 27 years, the time it will take to fill the abandoned mine pit. From the perspective of trout production Fish Creek outlet will not become a biologically connected part of Prosperity Lake and tailings impoundment system. Once the mine is closed, and the pit is filled with water, additional flow back into the outlet stream will contribute little to compensation. The remaining out let stream, above the barrier, would no longer a part of any lake system. Such additional flow would be expected to improve fish habitat below the Fish Creek outlet barrier. I do not have enough information about the situation after the mining operation is terminated and the pit is filled to be able to discuss the all-important issues of maintaining the 10.8 km diversion channel and the spawning and rearing channel. Further to that, I am not able to consider the issue of sustained operation of the HCRP outlet flows to it. Who will do it? How long? Who will pay? Commitments made now by the mining company would have to be set out firmly with financial backing (performance bond?) so that the public is not left with a lake unequal to the ones it lost, and with management costs and responsibilities. At closure time, the government fisheries agency could be already be overloaded. This last set of comments go beyond fish biology, however, they reflect on some of the history of the mining industry and its legacy of abandoned mines about the province.

Concluding Comments The proposed compensation system is to be composed of a headwater collection channel, a headwater channel retention pond, a seasonal spawning and rearing channel, and an artificial lake. These constitute a complex of functionally interconnected components all of which must work each year. All must be able to accommodate hydraulic and hydrologic conditions. They must also provide appropriate thermal conditions. These needs must be met in order that the mitigation/compensation requirements are met. This complex system must work in perpetuity. The proposed spawning/rearing channel and Prosperity Lake do not come near to making up for the loss of Fish Lake, Little Fish Lake and the outlet and two inlet streams that would be destroyed by the mine. We have been able to construct components of fish habitat with some degree of success. However, we may be guilty of hubris if we believe that we can re-construct functional biological systems as they exist as parts of natural geomorphological and hydrological elements of the landscape. For many people, trout fishing in B.C. goes beyond the experience of simply going out in a boat and catching fish. An important part of the fishing experience, for such people, involves being in an attractive natural environment. An artificial lake, with either a 1.6 km dyke for a north shore, or such a lake with an extension into a tailings pond, does not meet such requirements. It most certainly does not fulfill the experience expectations of native people, who have fishing, hunting and deeper connections with Fish Lake. These are based on long term use and connection to the land.

10 Summary of Mining Related Community-Based Impacts

Submitted to the Prosperity CEAA Panel By: P. Larcombe, Symbion Consultants for Tsilhqot’in National Government April, 2010 The following briefing on mine-related community impacts is based upon:

Literature Review, including materials on:

- Impact predictions in other mine project environmental assessments; - Presentations and public hearing evidence on mining projects by other First Nations & Aboriginal groups; - Post project monitoring reports; - Professional and academic literature.

Personal knowledge and experience in working with communities who have faced large natural resources development projects in their territories. Impact of 12-hour shift & extended rotation schedule (e.g. 14 days on/14 days off) on mine workers

• Fatigue from lack of sleep between shifts or rotations (especially alternating rotations of day and night shifts) creates risk for worker safety [1] [2];

• Worker efforts to meet family and community responsibilities during their ‘off- shift’, exacerbates fatigue conditions [2];

• Significant daily travel to/from work substantially erodes ‘off-work’ time, contributing to fatigue [2];

• Long-term exposure to shift-work linked to health impacts, with higher rates of: - gastrointestinal disorders (e.g. peptic ulcers, heartburn, nausea); - cardiovascular disease (e.g. heart disease, high blood pressure); - stress disorders (e.g. anxiety, depression).

• Workers with pre-existing physical or mental health conditions and/or with substance abuse addictions are most at risk [29].

See Citation List at end of presentation. Numbers identified in [ ] correspond to document #i n Citation List. Note [PK] refers to personal knowledge of writer. Impact of Shift/Rotation Schedule on Families

• Heightened levels of stress & disruption for the partners & families [1] [6] [35];

• Women and children bear the brunt of mine-related work impacts on family. Increased incidence of domestic violence, substance abuse and family disruption are reported [4][8] [24] [5] [18] [30] [32] [33];

• The 2 week on/2 week off rotation is really a 3 on/1 off schedule as mine workers spend the first week at home catching up on sleep [11]. Impact of Shift/Rotation Schedule on Families

Absence of mine workers;

• increases responsibilities of spouses/partners in all aspects of family life resulting in stress related health issues [5] [32]. E.g. Labrador women with partners working 12-hour shifts (particularly night shift) report: mental health depression, loneliness, separation/ divorce, parenting conflicts, child care issues, spouse partying on days off, difficulty with scheduling family time [31];

• is difficult for children [5]. E.g. BHP Ekati diamond mine survey of families with mine workers found that 49.5% reported impacts on children between the ages of 0- 4 [5].

E.g. School staff in community of Rae Edzo in NWT report an increase in student behaviour problems of children from families involved in mine employment [12] [24]; Impact of Shift/Rotation Schedule on Families

• Workers whose families & partners are not coping well with shift schedule most likely to suffer from fatigue-related problem at work [1];

• Families & relationships already under stress extremely vulnerable to the added stress of mine-related shift/rotation schedules [5] [32];

• Time away from family is one of the major reasons that workers quit mining jobs [3];

• Worker satisfaction with shift schedule is highest when it allows sufficient time to spend with family, friends and community [1]; Link Between Mine Employment and Substance Abuse

• Wages paid by mining companies, higher participation rates in the cash economy, and/or shift/rotation schedule can create or exacerbate existing social problems such as alcohol and substance abuse [11] [10] [14] [15] [5] [24] [32] [33] [35];

• Substance abuse effects immediate family, extended family, friends, and community at large, i.e. martial discord, domestic violence, child neglect, accidents, overdoses, suicide, financial problems, increased crime rates [5] [10] [14];

• Evidence of bootlegging and underground drug trade has been associated with mining developments [33] [PK re Innu and Voisey's Bay];

• Substance abuse by mine workers can result in job loss, leading to additional family stresses (loss of income, inability to finance accumulated debt, low self-esteem on the part of the worker and family members, leading to more cycles of substance abuse, domestic violence, etc.) [10] Boom/Bust Cycle of Mining Industry

• Temporary and pre-mature mine closures described as a ‘feast and famine’ cycle where families experience periods of income and incur debt and then face stress due to job loss and debt load [9] [18];

• Cycle causes de-stabilization of families and the community at large, and is particularly hard on women and children [9] [18];

• Results in higher rates of health issues (substance abuse, depression, family violence) and increased demand on health service providers [5]. Money Management Impacts

• Identified as a likely impact in all of the environmental assessments done for diamond mines in the NWT; northern Ontario (Victor diamond mine) and Labrador (Voisey's Bay nickel mine);

• Increased wage income can lead to excessive consumerism and increased debt load [31].

• Increased wage income has been linked to gambling addictions which creates family stress and often the addiction lasts even after the mine closes or the worker stops working at the mine [5];

• Workers who finance large purchases have difficulty making payments when mines temporarily close down or prematurely shuts down [18]. Social Change in Cohesion of Community

• Even with ‘fly in/fly out’ mine operations, de facto mining towns still exist at departure points, bringing in ‘outsiders’ to the community [5] [15];

• Influx of ‘outsiders’ to a community disrupts the dynamics of close knit community’s, upsetting the socio-cultural and economic equilibrium that has developed over centuries [16];

• Health Canada reports that social changes associated with development can create uncertainties within communities, leading to a loss of control and deterioration of quality of life and overall health of the community [16]; Social Change in Cohesion of Community

• Presumption that jobs and increased income translate into ‘better communities’ is not always the case as often it changes the social and cultural character of the community [17] [30];

• Mining can divide a community and create long term conflict between those (individuals, families and businesses) who benefit and those who do not benefit or are negatively impacted from mine development and/or mine-related employment [11] Social Change in Cohesion of Community

• Stratifies the community into the ‘haves’ and ‘have nots’ [5] [11] [30] [32];

• Social division between mining and non-mining families [4].

• Individuals who lack skills or are unable to obtain mine-related employment often suffer from feelings of marginalization or simply ‘not belonging’ [16]

• Elders, traditional land users, women, and others who cannot or do not wish to participate in mining related activities are not only left behind, but also have to contend with impacts resulting from shift/rotation schedules [32]; Impacts on Culture

• Higher wage income can result in reduced need/time for traditional lifestyle activities and greater reliance on store bought goods [15] [16] [26] [27] [34]. For example, 71% of Lutsel k’e families with at least one member working in the mining industry reported spending less time on the land [24];

• Reduction in traditional lifestyle activities often felt most by youth, women and elders who have fewer opportunities to share in land-based activities if main family harvester is engaged in mine- related work [PK]; Impacts on Culture

• Consequences of a decrease in harvesting activities and/or country food consumption can include physical health impacts (diabetes, obesity, high blood pressure and heart disease) and mental health impacts (violence, substance abuse, suicide) [16] [34];

• Mining can introduce new lifestyles and consumption patterns that can disrupt community life and lead to a breakdown of traditional lifestyle and values [15] [34];

• Traditional economy promotes and rewards sharing, whereas wage economy promotes individualism [5] [24] [34]; Impacts on Community Resources

Human, infrastructure and financial resources of community’s can become taxed due to a combination of:

• permanent and transient population increase;

• increased needs/requirements of existing population. Impacts on Community Resources

• Employment and business opportunities have resulted in former community members returning to their First Nation home base, resulting in increased demand for governance, health, counselling, etc. services from already scarce resources [25].

• These individuals do not always get jobs or keep jobs, and some stay in the community drawing upon scarce transfer payment assistance funds [PK]; Impacts on Community Resources

• The prospect of Impact Benefit Agreement monies has drawn some First Nation members back to their home communities, again resulting in increased demand for services from what are often already over-taxed resources [PK];

• In northern Manitoba, the prospect of sharing in hydroelectric development mitigation and compensation opportunities resulted in a large number of disenfranchised members seeking reinstatement of Treaty status under Bill C-31 and demanding a share of project benefits [PK]. Impacts on Community Resources

Increased Burden on Resources from Existing Population:

• Increased individual and family stress, substance abuse, depression, etc. associated with mine-related work places greater demands on community services [35];

• Higher paying mine jobs draw community members with the highest levels of education and experience away from critical jobs in the community resulting in a social capital deficit of expertise available to the community [5] [16] [24]; Impacts on Community Resources

Increased Burden on Resources from Existing Population:

• Best and brightest, who are relied upon for advice and input in community events, land claims negotiations, and regular meetings, often cannot participate due to mine employment [24];

• Where communities already have scarce resources (human and financial) for governance, large mining projects tax the leadership and staff, often diverting attention from equally important issues of the community [11]. On the Positive Side on Things…

• Jobs and business opportunities can:

• help re-build individual, family and community esteem that has suffered from past experiences such as residential schools, previous development impacts, colonization, etc. [5] [10];

• attract growth and investment in the community;

• increase disposable income resulting in higher rates of expenditure within the community if such opportunities exist;

• reduce outward migration (particularly youth). On the Positive Side on Things…

• Project-related training can enhance skill sets that may be transferable to other jobs or businesses in the future;

• Increases in disposable income can promote purchase of capital equipment and increase financial resources available for land-based activities [PK] [24];

• Increases in wage economy can promote sharing through purchase and lending of harvesting equipment [5]; LITERATURE CITED

1 Heiler, K., Pickersgill, R. and Briggs, C. 2000. Working time arrangements in the Australian mining industry Trends and implications with particular reference to occupational health and safety. International Labour Office, Geneva. http://www.ilo.org/public/english/dialogue/sector/papers/austrmin/index.htm#_Toc496054137.

2 Government of Western Australia. 2000. Fatigue Management for the Western Australian Mining Industry Guideline. Department of Industry and Resources and Mines Occupational Safety and Health Advisory Board. State of Western Australia, November, 2000. http://www.docep.wa.gov.au/ResourcesSafety/Sections/Mining_Safety/pdf_/MS%20GMP/Guidelines/MS_GMP_Guide_FatigueManagement.p df .

3 Barker, T. and D. Brereton. 2005. Survey of local Aboriginal people formerly employed at Century mine: Identifying factors that contribute to voluntary turnover. Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining, Research Paper No. 4. University of Queensland, Australia, July 2005.

4 Brereton, D., Forbes, P. 2004. Monitoring the Impact of Mining on Local Communities: A Hunter Valley Case Study. Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining, University of Queensland. Paper presented to Minerals Council of Australia Inaugural Sustainable Development Conference, Melbourne, October 2004.

5 Gibson, G. and J. Klinck. Canada’s Resilient North: The Impact of Mining on Aboriginal Communities. Pimatisiwin: A Journal of Aboriginal and Indigenous Community Health 3(1).

6 International Labour Office Geneva. 2002. The evolution of employment, working time and training in the mining industry, Report for discussion at the Tripartite Meeting on the Evolution of Employment, Working Time and Training in the Mining Industry. International Labour Organization, Sectoral Activities Programme. Geneva, October 2002.

7 Ritter, A.R.M. 2001. Canada: From Fly-In, Fly-Out to Mining Metropolis. Chapter 6 in Large Mines and the Community, Socioeconomic and Environmental Effects in Latin America, Canada, and Spain (eds. Gary McMahon and Felix Rem). IDRC/World Bank 2001. http://www.idrc.ca/en/ev-28032-201-1-DO_TOPIC.html.

8 Strongman, J. Eftimie, A. and Hancock, Dr. G. 2004. Women in Energy and Mining, Voices for Change A Vision for a Better Future. World Bank Papua New Guinea NG Department of Mining World Bank Energy Week, March 2004.

9 Gaining Ground: Women, Mining and the Environment, Workshop held at Lake Laberge, Yukon Territory, September 17, 2000. www.yukonconservation.org/library/pdf/gain.pdf .

10. Brockman, A. and M. Argue. 1995. Review of NWT Diamonds Project Environmental Impact Statement: Socio-Economic Impacts on Women. Submitted by The Status of Women Council to BHP Diamond Mine Environmental Assessment Panel. October 23, 1995. 11 Innu Nation/MiningWatch Canada. 1999. Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Aboriginal Communities and Mining. Workshop Summary, September 10-12, 1999, Ottawa. http://www.miningwatch.ca/index.php?/Canada_en/Rock_hard_place.

12 Government Northwest Territories. 2005. Socio-Economic Impacts in the Communities of: Łutselk’e, Rae Edzo, Rae Lakes, Wha Ti, Wekweti, Detah, Ndilo, and Yellowknife 2004 Annual Report of the Government of the Northwest Territories under the BHP Billiton and Diavik Socio-Economic Agreements. Health and Social Services; Education; Culture and Employment Industry; Tourism and Investment; Justice; NWT Bureau of Statistics; NWT Housing Corporation.

13 Marlowe, E., Enzoe, D., Parlee, B. and Ellis, S. 2003. Community Based Monitoring, Final Report. Prepared by Wildlife, Lands and Environment Department Lutsel K’e Dene First Nation for The West Kitikmeot Slave Study Society.

14 Hobart, C.W. 1984. The Impact of Resource Development on the Health of Native People in the Northwest Territories. Department of Sociology, University of Alberta. The Canadian Journal of Native Studies, IV, 2 (1984): 257-278.

15 Lapalme, Lise-Aurore, Natural Resources Canada, Mineral and Metal Policy Branch. 2003. The Social Dimension of Sustainable Development and the Mining Industry, A Backgrounder. Minister of Public Works and Government Services Canada.

16 Buell, Mark. 2006. Resource Extraction Development and Well-Being in the North, A Scan of the Unique Challenges of Development in Inuit Communities. Ajunnginiq Centre, National Aboriginal Health Organization.

17 Duhaime, G. et al. Economic Systems., 2004. Chapter 4 In: Arctic Human Development Report. Stefansson Arctic Institute, under the auspices of the Icelandic Chairmanship of the Arctic Council 2002-2004.

18 Yukon Status of Women Council. 2000. Gain Ground: Women, Mining and the Environment. Results of a Workshop held September 17, 2000, at Lake Laberge, Yukon. www.yukonconservation.org/library/pdf/gain.pdf.

19 Kwiatkowski, R.E. and M. Ooi. 2003. Integrated Environmental Impact Assessment: A Canadian Example. Bulletin of the World Health Organization, v. 81. n.6 Genebra.

20 Handy, E.R. 2005. Diamond in the Rough, an interview with Ph.D. candidate Ginger Gibson. Norman B. Keevil Institute of Mining Engineering, University of British Columbia.

21 Collins, B. 2000. Kakadu Region Social Impact Study Community Report. Report on initiatives from the Kakadu Region community and government, on the implementation of the Kakadu Region Social Impact Study, November 1998 – November 2000, Darwin, Australia.

22 Adger, W.N. 2000. Social and Ecological Resilience: Are They Related?. Progress in Human Geography 24, 3 (2000) pp. 347-364. 23 Story, K. and L.C. Hamilton. 2003. Planning for the Impacts of Megaprojects: Two North American Examples. In: R.O. Rasmussen and N.E. Koroleva (eds.) Social and Environmental Impacts in the North, 281-302, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands.

24 North Slave Metis Alliance. 2001. Can’t Live Without Work-Environmental, Social, Economic and Cultural Concerns: A Companion to the Comprehensive Study Report on the Diavik Diamonds Project.

25 The Supervising Scientist. 1997. Kakadu Region Social Impact Study: Report of the Aboriginal Project Committee. A Study Jointly Funded by the Commonwealth and Territory Governments, the Northern Land Council, and Energy Resources Australia. Commonwealth of Australia.

26 Conference Board of Canada. 2001. An Examination of the Nunavut Economy. Ottawa.

27 Hobart, Charles. “Inuit Employment at the Nanisivik Mine on Baffin Island.” Inuit Studies,Vol. 6, No. 1. (1982).

28 Hild, C.M. and V. Stordahl. Human Health and Well-Being. Artic Human Development Report.

29 Queensland Government. 2001. Guidance Note for Management of Safety and Health Risks associated with Hours of Work Arrangements at Mining Operations. Natural Resources and Mines.

30 International Council on Mining and Metals. 2006. Community Development Tool Kit. Prepared in association with the World Bank and Energy Sector Management Assistance Program as part of the Pioneering New Approaches in Support of Sustainable Development in the Extractive Sector program.

31 The Labrador West Status of Women Council and the Femmes Francophones de l’Ouest du Labrador. 2004. Effects of Mining on Women’s Health in Labrador West, Final Report. In collaboration with MiningWatch Canada, the Steelworkers Humanity Fund, with assistance from the Lupina Foundation.

32 MacKenzie Valley Environmental Impact Review Board. June 28, 2006. Reasons for Decision and Report of Environmental Assessment for the DeBeers Gahcho Kué Diamond Mine, Kennady Lake, NT.

33 Lutsel K’e First Nation. 2006. “What We Heard” - Community Scoping Workshop for the Gahcho Kué Environmental Assessment in Lutsel K’e, April 19, 2006. Presentation to the MacKenzie Valley Environmental Impact Review Board on April 28, 2006.

34 FMA Heritage Resources Consultants Inc. 2006. Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Land Use Report, Joslyn North Mine Project. Prepared for Deer Creek Energy Limited.

35 Voisey's Bay Mine and Mill Environmental Assessment Panel Report. 1999. http://www.ceaa- cee.gc.ca/010/0001/0001/0011/0002/contents_e.htm.

36 Victor Diamond Project, Final Comprehensive Study Report.

37 MacKenzie Valley Environmental Impact Review Board. 2003. Report of Environmental Assessment and Reasons for Decision on the De Beers Canada Mining Inc. Snap Lake Diamond Project. July 24, 2003.

McCrory Wildlife Services Ltd. Box 479, New Denver, British Columbia V0G 1S0 Phone: 250-358-7796; e-mail: [email protected]

April 16, 2010

Colette Spagnuolo, Panel Manager 160 Elgin Street, Ottawa, ON K1A OH3

Re: Technical Review of EIS on Proposed Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine: "Terrestrial Ecosystems"

Dear Ms Spagnuolo:

Please find attached my technical review. As some information was not available for my review, please be advised that I will be making some revisions to this document prior to the end-April submission in Williams Lake.

Sincerely,

Wayne P. McCrory, RPBio.

Cc.

AN INDEPENDENT REVIEW OF THE TERRESTRIAL WILDLIFE IMPACTS OF THE PROPOSED PROSPERITY MINE

April 16, 2010 Draft

Wayne P. McCrory, RPBio McCrory Wildlife Services Box 479, New Denver, British Columbia, V0G 1S0 Phone (250) 358-7796 email:[email protected] [email protected]

REVIEW OF TASEKO’S PROPOSED OPEN PIT MINE AND ITS CUMULATIVE IMPACTS TO GRIZZLY BEARS, OTHER WILDLIFE AND WILD HORSES & ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY OF PROTECTED AREAS

[Note: This draft review is being submitted to the panel on April 16 with the understanding that it will be up-graded and revised prior to delivery of the final document at the hearings in late April. For example, research on road mortalities and mine effects on grizzly bears (in the U.S.) were incomplete on April 16. Wayne McCrory, RPBio. An more complete Executive Summary will also be provided in the final document].

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

My review, using extensive local knowledge and research on wildlife habitats and 30 years of grizzly bear/wildlife expertise combined with a conservation biology and cumulative effects review, concludes that the Taseko EIS for the proposed Prosperity Mine significantly undervalues the environmental impacts of the mine development on grizzly bears and other wildlife. The West Chilcotin grizzly population is the largest residual dryland population left in Coastal Mountain foothills the North America and is a salmon bear that also feeds on whitebark pine nuts and wild potatoes. A recent conservation study recommends a recovery plan. The population is considered threatened by the province and is down to about 100 animals and therefore cannot sustain further habitat losses or increases in human-induced mortality. A projected net loss of quality habitat areas resulting from global warming exacerbates the stress this relic grizzly population is now under.

With respect to the proposed mine development, any new impact represents a cumulative effect on grizzly bears, and will result from a combination of:

Direct losses of quality habitats from the mine development (and further exploration), Displacement of warier grizzly bears from quality habitats and movement corridors in an associated broader Zone of Influence along the 50 km road corridor and mine site, Direct mortality of grizzly bears from the mine transportation corridor and mine site, including subdominant bears that will habituate to these areas, Displacement from quality habitats and movement corridors and associated illegal mortality resulting from an expanded motorized recreational backcountry use created by access improvements from the mine development including the transmission line corridor and the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area.

Most mitigation measures identified by the Taseko EIS will not be effective in reducing impacts. The mine development will cause this vulnerable and threatened West Chilcotin grizzly bear population to pass the ecological threshold for extinction.

Other impacts will include increased mortality to wild horses, mule deer and other wildlife along the proposed mine transportation corridor. Additionally the impacts of the mine will reduce the ability of adjacent protection areas to support viable populations of wide-ranging species.

I. GENERAL APPROACH & OVERVIEW BY McCRORY WILDLIFE SERVICES REVIEW OF TASEKO’s PROPOSED PROJECT

This review focuses on grizzly bear and the potential impacts to grizzly bear populations from the proposed Prosperity mine project. I use a conservation biology approach that looks at the issue from a cumulative effects viewpoint, which considers all direct and indirect influences on the bears in the Taseko region. By its nature, this is a cumulative effects assessment since the regional bear population has undergone, and is continuing to undergo, numerous adverse effects from a variety of natural and manmade disturbances and encroachments into the region. The proposed transportation corridor and mine will simply be one more additive effect in an otherwise compromised and shrinking viable habitat base for Chilcotin grizzly.

The grizzly bear is a good indicator species. Paquet (pers. comm.) analyzed niche overlap for 410 terrestrial vertebrates in the Central Canadian Rockies and found that by protecting the habitat needs of the grizzly bear, Canada lynx and grey wolf, additional species (98%) would also be protected. This means that if effective protective measures and good management are undertaken for this one species alone, almost all other wildlife populations in the same area are automatically taken care of. On the converse, whatever happens to grizzly habitat will almost assuredly affect in a negative way the majority of the other wildlife populations’ habitat. This makes the grizzly tremendously useful to the Panel’s understanding of wildlife habitat impacts from the Prosperity project.

The grizzly bear is one of North America’s slowest reproducing mammals (a mother grizzly might contribute 4 -5 offspring to the population if she lives long enough). This feature has made it vulnerable to population declines and extirpation, such as in the region 30 km or so to the north of the proposed Taseko Mine.

The grizzly bear in the West Chilcotin, estimated by the Wildlife Branch to be down to 104 individuals (Hamilton 2008), is provincially listed as “threatened”. This is loosely defined as the population estimate is being less than 50% of the area’s habitat capability, the number of animals that could be supported under optimal conditions (Austin et al. 2004). Recent DNA studies detected 119 grizzlies in the combined Tatlayoko and upper Chilko River sections of Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area, suggest that the numbers of grizzly bears in the XGCA may be in better shape than expected (Mueller 2008). However, this may provide an artificial window on the overall status of the population since some of the grizzly bears are being drawn to salmon from a very large area including Gold Bridge to the south of the Taseko.

Although this population of dryland grizzlies is no longer hunted, unreported kills from defense- of-life, conflicts at native salmon harvest sites, rancher-grizzly conflicts, conflicts with mining exploration camps, hunter-grizzly conflicts and road mortalities are on-going threats to this vulnerable population. In recent years, there have been two reported kills for cattle predation and two unreported kills related to conflicts with people, including a female with young. Grizzly bears generally cannot sustain mortality higher than 4%, if recovery is desired (Horejsi 1999). Even the loss of one breeding-age female can have serious consequences to maintaining a viable population. A recent mortality study (McLellan et al. 1999) found that in a hunted population, for every bear killed legally there is about one killed illegally. Studies using radio-collared grizzlies 4 have demonstrated that female grizzly bears comprise a large proportion of the unreported mortality in BC.

Despite the historic decline in Chilcotin grizzly populations, a recent conservation study showed that an area of viable grizzly habitat larger than Yellowstone Park still exists along the west side of the coast ranges, foothills and partially onto the Chilcotin Plateau, from the head of the Taseko River to Tweedsmuir Park, and that some 49% of this was already protected (Craighead and McCrory 2010). This study recommended that a grizzly bear recovery plan be implemented for this area by the province, and that more habitats be protected.

The study also showed that the West Chilcotin grizzly bear is the last viable population of grizzlies left in the dryland-grassland ecotype along the eastern fringes of North America’s Coastal Ranges and Cascade Mountains. This is a grizzly that feeds on salmon, but unlike its cousins in the coastal rainforests, also feeds on whitebark pine nuts, and digs for wild potatoes and bears-claw. This grassland grizzly ecotype is totally extinct along the lee of the coastal mountains in the U.S., is down to tiny numbers in the U.S. – B.C. North Cascades (where recovery programs are being looked at), and occurs in very low numbers in the Lillooet area south of the headwaters of the Taseko River.

The mine transportation corridor will also cross some 50 km of that plateau bordering the large Xeni Gwet’in aboriginal preserve that extends to the east side of the Taseko. Despite fragmentation from clearcut logging, this area still has all Chilcotin wildlife including grizzly bears, wolves, and 100-200 wild horses. The horses were in the Chilcotin region before Europeans, indicating Spanish origin (we are now doing DNA tests on this in the Brittany Triangle). The horses are considered an alternate prey species for grizzly bears, wolves, mountain lions and other predators (McCrory 2002). Not only is the plateau east of the Taseko a major movement corridor for mule deer, it is a broad travel region for all wildlife including grizzly bears that would move from the east to access salmon along the Taseko and Chilko Rivers and Ellkin Creek. The road corridor is not only a communal First Nations harvest area for mule deer and moose, but an excellent wildlife and wild horse viewing area. It is periodically used for film documentaries of wild horses.

The proposed Taseko mine site and much of the proposed industrial transportation corridor actually lie within the eastern boundaries of a very large protected area: the Xeni Gwet’in’s aboriginal/wild horse preserve (1989 Xeni Gwet’in Nendduwh Jid Guzit’in and 2002 ?Elegesi Qiyus Wild Horse Preserve) totalling some 777,290 ha. To the east and southeast, and proximal to the proposed mine, lie two important provincially protected areas, Big Creek Park and Spruce Lake Protected Area, totalling some 137,329 ha. Just like Canada’s system of national parks, these aboriginal and provincial protected areas (including four provincial protected areas that lie within the boundaries to the Xeni Gwet’in preserves) were created through intensive land-use planning processes, with the intention of being lasting legacies for society by preserving biodiversity and high value core grizzly bear habitats and other wildlife.

How will the proposed Taseko Mine affect the currently precarious survival of the West Chilcotin grizzly bear, wild horses and other wildlife? And how will the mine development affect the ecological integrity and biological functioning of Chilcotin protected areas that have been meticulously set aside by society to preserve species and biodiversity?

A. REVIEW OF PROPOSED TASEKO LAKE/WHITEWATER INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORTATION CORRIDOR i. Background information from Taseko EIS documents

Taseko EIS: “there is no significant effect on Grizzly Bear.”

Taseko: “During the Project’s construction phase, Project traffic consists of transporting material and persons to the construction site. There are no large units that will require special traffic management other than pilot car for wide loads. The composition of the traffic is about 60% trucks/trucks and 40% light vehicles. The largest increment to traffic is Year 1 of operations, which overlaps with construction, with an annual average daily traffic of about 250 vehicles. After that, the Project adds on average about 100 vehicle trips per day (i.e., 50 vehicles making round trip). Concentrate trucks would make about 15 trips per day on average over the mine life. When the mine closes, the traffic volume drops to a negligible value.”

Taseko: Table 3-15, p. 3-38 of Vol 6 (social) Current Traffic and Project-Related Traffic Volumes (round trips per day) current traffic construction operations closure post- closure AADT Yr-1AADT typical year Yr 20, Vehicles AADT per wk 4500 Haul Road 5< 48 100 46 2 Taseko Lake/Whitewater roads 50 48 100 46 2 Hwy 20 Rural (Lee’s Corner to Wms Lk) 1,600 to 1,800 48 100 46 2 Hwy 20 (Williams Lake to Hwy 97) About 16,000 48 100 46 2 Hwy 97 (Wms Lk to Macalister load-out 2,900 - 32 Note: * indicates will be upgraded Source: Taseko Mines, see Table 3-36 for annual values

[For discussion purposed, I have converted round trips per day to vehicles per day (vpd) by multiplying by two. W. McCrory].

ii. McCrory Wildlife Sevices - ecological/wildlife-social context of the industrial transportation corridor area

¾ The proposed mine transportation corridor will use the Taseko/Whitewater road from Hanceville to the junction of this road and what is called the “4500” road. Apparently the road south of Stone will be up-graded to avoid going through the village and adjacent ranch lands. The 4500 road will be up-graded for the approximately 5 km to Fish Lake. This total length of this main transportation corridor from Stone to Fish Lake appears to be about 50 km.

¾ Near the south end and junction with the “4500” road the Taseko/Whitewater road enters the Elegesi Qiyus (Nemiah) Wild Horse Preserve (2002), marked by a large sign. This is also the 1989 Xeni Gwet’in Nendduwh Jid Guzit’in Aboriginal Preserve. They cover the 6

same area (Map x) and were established by aboriginal decree by the Xeni Gwet’in and they are approximately the same size as Banff National Park. This section of the Taseko/Whitewater road, the 4500 road and the proposed mine are all in this Preserve area.

¾ The road crosses a largely lodgepole pine-meadow-wetland plateau that is somewhat fragmented and roaded from recent clearcut logging and a few old ranch roads. However, it appears to still inhabited by all of the West Chilcotin wildlife species including blue- listed grizzly bears and wolverine; although some negative effects are likely occurring. Some blue-listed sharptailed grouse likely occur as we have been recording small numbers in the Brittany Triangle (McCrory 2005 and unpubl. field notes).

¾ Currently and until the habitats in large Brittany fire zones (2003 and 2009) in the aboriginal/wild horse preserve recover, wild horses and wildlife such as grizzly bears, lynx and wolves displaced by these large wildfires appear to have influxed into outlying habitats including areas along the Taseko/Whitewater Road. For example, in the fall of 2003 what appeared to be several new herds of wild horses were observed moving into the Km 23 area of the Taseko/Whitewater road as a result of displacement from the fire (Wild horse ranger, Harry Setah pers. comm.). Our studies of the 2003 Brittany Fire (McCrory 2005 and recent unpublished field surveys) indicate that while some animals such as wild horses have generally recovered, slow food resource recovery for some species (e.g. willows for moose, soapberry for bears, slow come-back of snow-shoe hares for lynx, etc.) may mean another decade or so before capacity is recovered. The 2009 fire was even larger and crossed the east side of the Taseko to near the Taseko/Whitewater road. If wildlife and wild horses are here in greater numbers because of this fire displacement effect, then this has implications for increased direct and indirect effects of the mine transportation road including road kills.

¾ Many wildlife populations still apparently cross the existing road safely to utilize habitats that exist on the east and west side of the road. This is particularly true of the 100 – 200 wild horses, but also moose, bears and other species. Productive wetlands and grasslands on both sides of the current road access biological hotspots and all are necessary for some of these animals to continue to survive over the long-term.

¾ The proposed mine transportation corridor for all of its 50 km length intersects a major migration corridor and spring-fall resident habitat for large numbers of mule deer that primarily winter eastward along the Fraser River.

¾ The road corridor also intersects what appears to be a wide dispersal corridor for grizzly bears traveling from the more dryland areas east to access major salmon runs along the Taseko and Chilko Rivers. In one case a grizzly bear was known to travel from 113 km from Gold Bridge (in the south) to access the spawning salmon food resource in the Chilko (Mueller 2008). Meuller felt that grizzly bears in the region have much larger home ranges than in most other reported grizzly studies. We have observed grizzly bears utilizing pine forests north of the Chilko River, towards Alexis Creek.

¾ The general Whitewater/Taseko road and associated sub-roads are a communal hunting area of considerable importance for First Nations harvest of mule deer and moose.

¾ Wildlife viewing values are fairly high compared to other roads in the Cariboo. Wild horse viewing and photography are some of the best in the province. The area is 7

occasionally used for wild horse documentary filming (e.g. Discovery: Wild Horses/Unconquered People).

¾ I consider the wildlife and wild horse populations in this area to be highly vulnerable to mortality and displacement from a high volume industrial transportation corridor such as that proposed by Taseko Mines. iii. Current status of the Whitewater/Taseko access road

The road currently is a “bush road” with often little traffic, even in the summer, and travel is slow. I could not locate any records of traffic volumes and road kills. In my last 10 years of doing research in the area I have never seen a road kill, although recently a horse was reported hit and I have seen a wolf and a wild horse that were indiscriminately shot with ¼ km of the road. The current rough state of the road provides a natural type of speed control that limits collisions with wildlife and wild horses. My Xeni Gwet’in Access Management Plan (McCrory 2005) concluded that: “current levels of access roads, such as in the Nemiah Valley, north end of Chilko Lake, Tsuniah Road, and Taseko Lake are likely not having any significant impacts on grizzly bears, although some habitats near these roads might not be used by grizzly bears at certain times of the year”. iv. Projected impacts: Traffic volume increases and road improvements from proposed mine transportation corridor

Traffic volumes are one way to measure the effects of roadways on grizzly bears including road kill levels and habitat displacement (Dr. L. Craighead pers. comm., Horejsi 1999).

Taseko’s traffic estimates pre-mine traffic volumes for the Taseko Lake/Whitewater roads to be an annual average of 100 vehicles per day (vpd), with no apparent supporting evidence, such as traffic counts. Taseko’s data indicated that the mine operation would triple the estimated traffic use of the Taseko/Whitewater road from 100 vpd to 300 vpd. The majority of Taseko’s use will be trucks, including 15 concentrate trucks per day. In Year 1 when construction overlaps with operation the total vpd will be 350. These figures do not account for the increased public/recreational use of the road that will occur as a result of road improvement Taseko’s EIS appears to provide very little information about the degree of upgrade or widening the Whitewater Road from its current ‘bush’ condition to industrial and safer standards. One can assume however that significant improvements will be made to facilitate the projected high increase in mine traffic. This will also increase significantly the speed at which vehicles will be able to travel. This factor alone has serious implications for wildlife and wild horse road kills (I will further attempt to obtain greater details before the final submission near the end of April). v. Effects of Taseko industrial transportation corridor on grizzly bears

Various scientific studies demonstrate that roads can have significant behavioural and ecological consequences for grizzly bears, all of them negative (Horejsi 1994, 1999, 2000; Horejsi et. al. 1998; Kasworm and Manley 1990).

Warier bears will avoid even high quality habitats up to 3 km from a road (displacement). In one study in Montana, grizzly bears showed avoidance of roads at just 10 vpd, and at 60 vpd the road helped define the border between two female grizzly bear home ranges (Mace et al. 1996). In another case, a grizzly in Alaska restricted use to just 22% of its home range because of a road (Dau 1989). 8

Roads also destroy habitat. As well, subdominant bears, especially females with young, will habituate to roadsides, and become susceptible to being killed from traffic collisions, illegal hunting and food/garbage related problems. All around, roads, especially those with higher speeds and higher traffic volumes, are extremely dangerous to bears and can become both an ecological dead zone for warier bears, even along salmon streams, or a death zone for bears that habituate to roads and traffic.

What follows is a comparative analysis of the threatened West Chilcotin grizzly situation to a detailed conservation biology analysis of the endangered Granby-Gladstone grizzly bear population by Dr. Brian Horejsi (1999). The Granby grizzly is also a dryland type grizzly bear and with an estimated 50 animals. The West Chilcotin is only considered threatened and is estimated to comprise 104 animals. [For my finalized submission I will add further information on mine road EIA information and grizzly bears in the U.S. provided by Dr. L. Craighead]. a). Increased habitat displacement & fragmentation of grizzly bear home ranges

A comparison shows that the proposed Taseko/Whitewater industrial corridor will have up to three times the vpd that the Monashee and southern transprovincial highways had back in 1989- 1997 (89 – 97 vpd), traffic levels where Horejsi’s (1999) conservation analysis including GIS habitat and road density review concluded that these roads were already creating a barrier to grizzly bear movements between habitats fractured by the highways. In a Montana ecosystem somewhat similar to the West Chilcotin, grizzly bears showed strong avoidance of roads with 11- 60 vpd (Mace et al. 1996). Roads can reduce the use of quality habitats within 1.6 km (Suring et al. 1998). Thus, although the existing Taseko/Whitewater road is likely experiencing some habitat avoidance by grizzly bears, a three-fold increase in traffic to industrial scale will have a much greater effect in my opinion. b). Grizzly bear road kills

For this section I reviewed the maps in my possession of provincial reported “bear kills” from 1990-1999 (BC Wildlife Branch-Research and Conservation Section). Unfortunately, it does not separate black bear and grizzly bear kills. The data actually represents about 20% of the bears actually killed. Data is lost due to bear remains being removed by predators, covered by snow, ice or vegetative debris, and data collection errors and omissions. There is no information for the Taseko/Whitewater road and the road between Williams Lake and Hanceville shows 3 bear road kills. This would actually equate to 15 and all assumed to be black bears since it is in the grizzly bear zone of extirpation. [April 16. We are attempting to get more information from the Wildlife Branch as to grizzly bear kills where highways cross through occupied grizzly habitat].

High volume transportation corridors in occupied grizzly habitat such as Banff Park can lead to high mortality rates for grizzly bears that jeopardize even populations in large protected areas (P. Paquet pers. comm.). Even with traffic volumes for two provincial highways crossing the Granby-Gladstone grizzly ecosystem at vpd levels 1/3 lower than the proposed Taseko mine road, Horejsi (1999) concluded that one traffic-related mortality of a female grizzly bear would jeopardize chances of recovery. According to Horejsi (1999): “understanding the impact of road access involves the recognition that the cumulative effects of incremental mortality and displacement events can quickly destabilize a bear population.”

In my opinion, upgrading the Taseko-Whitewater “bush” road into an industrial corridor will cause serious road-related grizzly bear mortality and injuries for less warier bears over time that, 9 with other direct and indirect mortalities caused by the mine, will push this threatened population below the threshold required to sustain recovery of the population. By this point the sliding to extirpation of this threatened and rare dryland grizzly population will be irreversible. The mine road will become an ecological death trap.

The case study evidence clearly does not support Taseko’s conclusion that its industrial road will not have a significant effect on the Chilcotin grizzly bear population. Given that for most of its length the Taseko/Whitewater Road passes not only through occupied grizzly habitat but also what is likely a major travel corridor between dryland areas on the east and the Taseko salmon river and associated quality habitats on the west, the evidence from past studies is that fragmentation of habitat, blockage of movements of warier bears, and road kills will likely have very significant and quite possibly irreversible cumulative effects on this threatened grizzly population. c. Other species road kills

I predict that other species will also be subject to significantly increased road mortality. Some of the more wide-ranging carnivores such as the blue-listed wolverine likely will not be able to sustain mortality levels threatened by this road. While some of the wild horse bands are somewhat habituated to the road, from what I have observed of some of the wilder horse bands, they often take a run at the road as a herd, whether a vehicle is coming or not. I have had them dash out of the pine forest en mass and barely avoided a major collision myself. I expect the mine road will lead to some quite awful collisions between wild horses. d). Comments on Taseko’s proposed road kill mitigation strategies

Taseko commits to speed controls and a “Grizzly Bear Mortality Investigation Program” implemented under MOE and so on. These are simplistic and will be ineffective at preventing the impacts identified above. According to Horejsi (1999) administrative road restrictions such as signs, gates and regulations have little effect on controlling bear mortality, nor do they reduce the rate of habitat displacement (such as where secondary roads are gated to prevent motorized access). The fact that Taseko wants to have a grizzly bear mortality investigation program is an acknowledgement that some grizzly bears will die from their activities. They fail to acknowledge that for every grizzly bear reported as a road kill; there will be 5 more dead that went undetected. Nor has Taseko made any attempt to link road mortalities to the threat they pose to the threatened Chilcotin grizzly bear population.

Taseko also relies for the mitigation of some wildlife impacts on government to implement certain programs or management activities. This is a huge mistake, for experience here shows all too clearly that provincial government commitments to wildlife management and protection are anything but reliable. Taseko has provided no data that support robust engagement of provincial (or federal) government agencies to effectively carry out wildlife mitigation measures from industrial projects anywhere in BC. Budgetary cutbacks, and relaxed attention to environmental issues, are inarguably real trends in government, as they have been for some years now. The panel should not conclude that reliance on provincial programs to implement impact mitigation measures are a real and viable solution, and if left to industry with no oversight, will likely not be effective in reducing wildlife impacts.

As example in about 1975 I conducted an environmental impact assessment on waterfowl and furbearers for a consulting firm for the early stages of the Syncrude tarsands mine development. The property turned out to be on an important waterfowl migratory flyway, and had important 10 wildlife values. The assessment identified important concerns and made recommendations for monitoring and mitigation. The results, emerging decades later, have not been promising, including high mortality rates for black bears. The following is from (Greenpages Canada http://thegreenpages.ca). In eight years (2000-2008), three companies working in the oilsands in northern Alberta (Syncrude, Albian Sands, and Suncor) reported a total of 164 NON-AVIAN animals killed as a result of their operations. Among the animals listed as killed were black bears (27), red foxes (31), coyotes (21), white-tailed/mule deer (67), and slightly lesser numbers of muskrat, beaver, red-backed vole, martens, weasels, moose, grey wolves, and little brown bats. All these are in addition to the "infamous dead ducks" incident that made the national news when over 1,600 migratory birds landed on a Syncrude oilsands tailings pond in April 2008, and all but a few died. Of the three operations, Syncrude was responsible for the majority of mortalities, including 43 deer, 20 red fox and eight black bears. Possible causes of mortality include euthanasia of problem wildlife, drowning or oiling from tailings, animals hitting infrastructure (e.g., buildings), or vehicles and electrocution. According to independent scientist Kevin Timoney the numbers of dead animals reported to government underestimated true mortality because they were derived from ad hoc reporting by companies rather than from a scientifically valid and statistically robust sampling design.

As in British Columbia, the Alberta government has made significant cuts to its monitoring, enforcement, and reporting capacity

B. REVIEW OF PROPOSED TRANSMISSION LINE-increased grizzly bear mortality

The proposed transmission line corridor will also be a significant source of grizzly bear mortality and disturbance to habitat use. Although the route attempts to use existing roadways, it will establish an 80 km east-west linear corridor, having a near-continuous access road all the way from near the Fraser River to the Prosperity Mine site. The Taseko EIS underplays the impacts this will have on grizzly bears.

Despite promises by Taseko to gate and control access, few proponents and no government agencies have ever done this effectively. There is no demonstrated correlation between access control and wildlife impact mitigation from industrial roads. Various studies and much local and professional experience shows this is not a viable mitigation approach, nor will it work to keep out unregulated motorized access by hunters and recreationists, using ATVs and snowmobiles. Again, as noted by Horejsi (1999) administrative road restrictions such as signs, gates and regulations have little impact on preventing human access and the resulting bear mortality. Nor do such measures reduce the rate of habitat displacement.

As noted in my report on deactivation of fireguards from the Brittany 2003 fire, hunters and mushroom pickers built ATV access roads around all blockages (McCrory 2005). Illegal ATV access roads have also been built into Brittany Creek and portions of the upper Taseko for hunter access (McCrory 2009). At the Chilcotin-Fraser Junction protected area, BC Parks attempted to control access but both the gate and the fence were removed by unauthorized people in short order (Glen Davidsen pers. comm.). In a study I did for the Wildlife Branch of legally closed, signed and blocked/gated access roads in the B.. Pasayten and North Cascades, motorized hunting groups violated all access points.

Thus, the consequences of improving access to build and maintain this lengthy linear corridor will be to lead to further displacement of grizzly bears and unreported mortality from uncontrolled motorized access. The will be additive to the both the reported and unreported 11 grizzly bear mortality that I predict will be caused by the mine industrial access corridor and mine site itself.

As an example of the danger of closed (gated) and open roads to threatened and endangered grizzly populations, a study in the endangered Selkirk grizzly ecosystem in Idaho showed this low population of approximately 50 grizzly bears suffered 18 deaths between 1982 and 1996, 11 associated with open roads and 4 on closed (gated) roads (Wakkinen 1993, Wakkinen and Johnson 1997).

C. REVIEW OF PROPOSED MINE SITE DEVELOPMENT AREA

My review was constrained by what appeared to be a lack of information and map on Taseko’s mineral tenure area surrounding the proposed mine development area, as well as associated exploration roads and other activities.

i. Habitat losses

Again Taseko has concluded that this 8,000 ha? mine development will cause no significant impact on wildlife species (and Xeni Gwet’in plant gathering areas). They arrived at this conclusion partly through the utilization of an ecologically misleading formula that determined the relative size of each habitat type to be eliminated by the mine and them compared the loss to much larger areas. This is highly misleading since it does not take into account the differences in how wildlife species disproportionately utilize different seasonal habitats to a much higher degree than other ones.

A prime example is how Taseko discounts the loss of 400 ha or so of wetlands/riparian areas. In Taseko (2009) under: Alpine and Parkland, Wetlands and Grasslands they state:

“The changes in area of alpine and parkland, wetland and grassland ecosystems from baseline to maximum disturbance are presented in Table 15. No alpine or parkland ecosystems are affected by the Project. The loss of grassland ecosystems is small in both the Regional and Eastern Trapline Study Areas (<1 and 2.5% respectively). The Project-related loss of wetlands is small (<2%) in the context of the Regional Study Area but relatively large (14.6%) in the context of the Eastern Trapline Study Area”.

This is misleading for several reasons. This number only looks at the losses from the actual footprint of the mine, not from within a 1-2 km zone of displacement for warier grizzly bears. The other reasons is that there is no attempt by Taseko to address the issue of the disproportionate importance of different habitat types to grizzly bears. For example, a grizzly bear radio-telemetry study in southeast British Columbia (McLellan and Hovey 1993) demonstrated that grizzly bears made a much higher proportionate use of wetlands than their distribution over the landscape. Although wetland/riparian habitat comprised only 8.5% of the study area, 40% of the transmitter locations of 46 radio-collared grizzly bears between May 15 – July 22 (and located 10 or more times) were in wetland habitats. Some bears were located 85% of the time in this type of habitat during this period.

My Brittany ecological report (McCrory 2002) and subsequent field observations indicates that riparian/wetland areas are very important to grizzly bears for spring/summer for grasses, sedges, horsetails. Field surveys at Fish Lake and the meadow/riparian areas on May 8, 2008 and around the lake in July 2008 documented important grizzly bear wetland foods including cow-parsnip, 12 another important grizzly bear spring/summer food. Two grizzly bear mark trees were documented, a good index of grizzly bear movements and feeding through the Fish Lake area. Therefore the loss of 400 ha of wetland habitat is far more significant to grizzly bears than just losing a small percentage out of the landscape, particularly as noted in my section on global warming, wetlands are expected to diminish significantly from droughts. The loss of wetland and other viable grizzly habitats, combined with loss of habitat use by warier bears within a 1-2 km zone of influence is additive to the cumulative habitat displacement losses and mortality I have identified from the other aspects of this mine development.

This is not the only instance in which Taseko undervalued the actual habitat potential of the mine site area. One of the background reports (Madrone 1999) used to determine seasonal habitat values is out-dated, not validated by any field testing and relies too much on grizzly bear food habitat data from the Rockies, including a previous study I was involved in (McCrory and Herrero 1983). For another example, two key food sources for grizzlies in the Xeni Gwet’in Aboriginal/Wild Horse Preserve that are not mentioned in the Taseko grizzly report are whitebark pine nuts and salmon (Taseko River and some tributaries).

We also suspect that grizzly bears may also feeding on spawning trout in the Tetzan Biny area, although this has not been studied. Feeding on spawning cutthroat trout is very important for grizzly bears in Yellowstone (L. Craighead pers. comm.). Although the Madrone report mentions over-wintered bearberries as a potential spring food, again this was not examined in the field (it is also an important late fall berry food for bears in the Chilcotin). In my assessment of bear scats (black and grizzly) in the Brittany Triangle (McCrory 2002) I found that bear scats from the spring were comprised of about 50% over-wintered bearberries and 50% grasses/sedges. Some of the discrepancies in the Madrone report and lack of sufficient ground-truthed habitat-dietary information for the West Chilcotin has contributed to some of the habitat values of the proposed mine site being under-valued in my opinion, including the proximity of the mine to the Taseko major grizzly bear salmon feeding areas.

Regarding habitats in the mine development area, other specialized habitat besides wetlands, likely occur that represent critical food sources for grizzly bears. These include spring rainbow trout spawning areas and grasslands/wetlands with diggable soils for grizzlies to excavate root foods such wild potatoes, bear-claw and silverweed. The destruction of these, along with critical wetlands lost, could have a serious impact on grizzly bears that rely on this area when combined with other losses already identified. ii. Ecological Fracture Zone

For warier bears, it is not just the loss of critical habitat from the mine site development, but displacement from the zone of influence that creates a further impairment to grizzly bear foraging strategies and movement, that when combined with the movement barrier created by the industrial road corridor, creates a significant fracture zone in a vulnerable grizzly bear ecosystem. For warier bears, the 50 km road and mine site represents a significant barrier for grizzly bears attempting to access their food resources within large home ranges. iii. Limitations of Taseko’s grizzly bear-people conflict management plan at the mine site

While this has merit if implemented properly, given the scale of the development, because the site is in prime grizzly bear habitat and a broad movement corridor, some grizzly bears will habituate to people and the development. This will lead to bear-people conflicts, such as access to careless garbage containment or encounters with mine surveyors, with a high risk of problem bear 13 mortality as a result. I predict that some grizzly bears will be killed during the construction phase and operation phase as a result of such habituation.

D. CUMULATIVE IMPACT OF INCREASED MOTORIZED BACKCOUNTRY RECREATION IN GRIZZLY HABITAT RESULTING FROM IMPROVED PRIMARY ROAD IMPROVEMENT & LARGE INFLUX OF MINE WORKERS

Another cumulative effect not identified by Taseko is the increase in backcountry motorized recreation (ATV’s, snowmobiles) that will spin off from improved primary road access and a large influx of mine workers and the effects this will have on grizzly bears and other wildlife.

As identified in my Xeni Gwet’in Proposed Access Management Plan (McCrory 2005), prior to 2003 mining and mining exploration activities in the upper Taseko watershed increased the amount of roads in the XGCA by 45% of all primitive roads and 24% of all roads, opening up a vast area of wilderness to motorized access. I also identified a significant increase in backcountry motorized recreational access in the XGCA from Fish Lake mine workers as a major concern. Backcountry use by ATVs and snowmobiles in the XGCA and surrounding areas is likely to increase dramatically, whether it is hunting or recreation, is likely to increase dramatically, leading to further disturbances to grizzly bears and illegal kills. Certainly the number of illegal quad trails, already a growing problem, will also increase; particularly with recent cutbacks on Ministry of Forests staff that monitor and regulate such things.

E. GLOBAL WARMING WILL CAUSE ECOSYSTEM STRESS, INCREASED WILDFIRES AND A NET DIMINISHMENT OF GRIZZLY BEAR HABITAT VALUES

Another major shortcoming of Taseko’s EIS is it did not factor in climate changes that will result in significant alterations to wildlife habitat composition and abundance over the next 30-50 years and beyond. Instead they assume a static habitat situation, which won’t be the case at al.

The Xeni Gwet’in recently completed a draft climate change adaptation study (Lerner et al. 2010). I contributed a review of effects on wildlife, including habitat changes, a previous draft of which has been submitted to the Panel. As a result of further input to myself from another biologist, some changes have recently been made for my final text. For grizzly bears, it is expected that some important habitats and food sources will decrease in abundance and productivity including wild potatoes, whitebark pine, wetlands/riparian areas, and wild Pacific salmon. Increased berry production from wildfires will offset some of the fall habitat and food source losses for grizzly bears such as whitebark pine and salmon. Losses of other seasonal food sources such as wild potato and green plants in wetlands are a major concern as these represent specialized habitats that grizzly bears would use disproportionately to their low occurrence in the ecosystem and represent a net loss of food resources, apart from the mine development. This is particularly true of wetlands/riparian areas as well wild potatoes and other root/corm foods are also only dug by grizzly bears where the soils are not compacted (McCrory and Herrero 1983). Direct habitat losses from the mine and losses from displacement from the mine, road and transmission line zone of influence will therefore be cumulative to habitat reductions caused by global warming.

F. SUMMARY OF McCRORY WILDLIFE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS REVIEW ON CHILCOTIN GRIZZLY BEARS

In the Journal of Animal Ecology, Bascompte and Sole (1996) refer to an “extinction threshold”. 14

Because grizzly bear populations are highly sensitive to human-caused mortality, habitat losses and displacement critical threshold are reached that should not be exceeded if the population it to be expected to survive or recover over the long term. As this has already happened in the provincial “extirpated” grizzly bear zone over much of the Cariboo-Chilcotin plateau just 30 km to the north of the proposed mine is a good indication that the surviving 100 or so grizzlies are highly vulnerable to the same extinction process that has been expanding in this dryland ecosystem for the past 40 or 50 years. The threatened status of the West Chilcotin grizzly population, meaning they are already down to half of their original estimated numbers combined with increasing encroachment of habitat fragmentation from logging and now mining into their last wilderness enclaves suggests that these grizzly bears are already “on the edge” and at the “extinction threshold” from which, if pressed further, they will continue to decline and go extinct. Certainly the much lower numbers in similar habitats in the Lillooet area to the south of the Taseko supports this.

It is my conclusion that the impacts of the proposed project, serious in their own right, will be additive to the already existing layer of cumulative adverse effects to grizzly population and its habitat and, because most of the negative effects cannot be mitigated, will push the grizzly population over the extinction threshold. Once the mine is developed, impacts such as road mortalities will not be reversible or adequately mitigated.

G. EFFECTS OF MINE DEVELOPMENT ON ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY OF ADJACENT PROTECTION AREAS AND CONSERVATION IMPLICATIONS

[To be done completed. April 16]

LITERATURE CITED:

Austin, M.A., D.C. Heard, and A.N. Hamilton. 2004. Grizzly Bear (Ursus arctos) harvest management in British Columbia. B.C. Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection, Victoria, BC. 9 pp. Can be found at http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/documents/gb_harvest_mgmt.pdf . See Appendix 3

Bascompte, J. and R.V. Sole. 1996. Habitat fragmentation and extinction thresholds in spatially explicit models. J. Animal Ecology 65: 45:473.

B.C .2005. British Columbia’s Mountain Pine Beetle Action Plan 2006-2011. Unpublished report.

BCMoFR. 2005. Ministry of Forests and Range Mountain Pine Beetle Stewardship Research Strategy. Unpublished report BC Ministry of Forests and Range, Research Branch, Victoria, BC. B.C. Commission on Resources and Environment. 1994. Cariboo-Chilcotin Land Use Plan. 237 pp.

B.C. Min. of Environment, Lands and Parks (MELP). 1995. Conservation of Grizzly Bears in British Columbia. Background Report. 70 pp.

B.C .Parks. 1996. Ts’il?os Provincial Park Master Plan (Draft). BC Parks, Cariboo District, Williams Lake, B.C.

B. C. Commission on Resources and Environment. 1994. Cariboo-Chilcotin Land Use Plan (CCLUP). 237 pp.

Dau, C. 1989. Management and biology of brown bears at Cold Bay, Alaska. Pp. 19-26 In: Bear – people conflicts: Proc. Symp. On Manage. Strategies, NWT Dept. Renewable Resources, Yellowknife, NWT.

Dunleavey, M. 2009. Draft community wildfire protection plan for Xeni Gwet’in First Nation.

Fleishman, E., D.D. Murphy, and P.F. Brussard. 2000. A new method for selection of umbrella species for conservation planning. Ecological Applications 10:569-579.

Hamilton, A.N. 2008. 2008 grizzly bear population estimate for British Columbia. http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wld/documents/gbcs/2008_Grizzly_Population_Estimate_final.pdf

Iachetti 2008. A Decision-Support Framework for Conservation Planning in the Central Interior Ecoregion of British Columbia, Canada. Nature Conservancy of Canada. Unpublished report for Alcoa Foundation Conservation and Sustainability Fellowship and World Conservation Union (IUCN). 113 pp.

Lerner, J., T. Rossing, D. Delong, W. McCrory, R. Holmes and T. Mylnowski. 2010. Xeni Gwet'in community-based climate change adaptation plan. Report for Xeni Gwet'in First Nation.

McCrory, W. 2002. Preliminary conservation assessment of the rainshadow wild horse ecosystem, Brittany Triangle, Chilcotin, British Columbia, Canada. A review of grizzly and black 16 bears, other wildlife, feral horses and wild salmon. Unpublished report. Friends of the Nemiah Valley.

McCrory, W. 2005. Roads to Nowhere. Technical review of ecological damage and proposed restoration related to B.C. Ministry of Forests control actions – 2003 Chilko wildfire, Unpublished report. Friends of the Nemiah Valley.

McCrory, W. 2005. Proposed access management plan for Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Caretaker Area, Chilcotin, B.C.

McCrory, 2009. Assessment of trails for the Xeni Gwet’in tourism project. – wildlife and cultural/heritage values & wild horse tourism areas.

McCrory, W.P. 2010. Draft review of implications of climate change to habitats for some wildlife species and wild horses in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area, Chilcotin, BC. Contribution to Xeni Gwet’in adaptation to climate change review.

McLellan, B.N. and F.W. Hovey. 1993. Development and preliminary results of partial-cut timber harvesting in a riparian area to maintain grizzly bear spring habitat values. Pp. 107-118 IN: Morgan, K.H. and M.A. Lashmar (Eds). Riparian habitat management and research. Fraser River Action Plan Special Publication, Canadian Wildlife Service, Delta, B.C.

McLellan, B.N., F.W. Hovey, R.D. Mace, J.G. Woods, D.W. Carney, M.L. Gibeau, W.L. Wakkinen and W.F. Kasworm. 1999. Rates and causes of grizzly bear mortality in the interior mountains of British Columbia, Alberta, Montana, Washington, and Idaho. J. Wildl. Manage.63:911-920.

Sopuck, L., K. Ovaska, and R. Jakimchuk. 1997. Inventory of red- and blue-listed species, and identified wildlife in the Taseko Management Zone, July – August, 1996 and February, 1997. Renewable Resources Consulting Services Ltd. Report to B.C. Min. of Env. Lands and Parks, Williams Lake, B.C. 60 pp plus appendices.

Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management (MSRM). 2004. Draft. Chilcotin Sustainable Resource Management Plan. 2004. Ministry of Sustainable Resource Management, Cariboo Region, Williams Lake. B.C.

Mueller, C. 2008. Grizzly bears in the Tatlayoko valley and along the upper Chilko River: population estimates and movements. Annual Progress and Data Summary Report: year 2 (2007). Unpublished report. Nature Conservancy Canada. 27 pp.

Spalding, D.J. 2000. The early history of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) in British Columbia. B.C. Minist. Environ., Lands and Parks, Wildl. Branch, Victoria, B.C. Wildl. Bull. No. 100. 61 pp.

Taseko Mines Limited. 2009. Prosperity Gold-Copper Project. Supplemental Report to Taseko Mines Ltd. Prosperity Gold-Copper Project Environmental Impact Statement:Local and Regional Environmental Effects on Wildlife and vegetation)*eso,rces)of)01portance)to)the)4silh6ot7in)National

Wakkinen, W.L. 1993. Selkirk mountains grizzly bear ecology report. Threatened and endangered species project E-3-8. Idaho Dept. Fish and Game, Boise, ID. 19 pp. 17

Wakkinen, W.L. and B. Allen-Johnson. 1996. Grizzly bear enforcement and education project. Selkirk Ecosystem project, Threatened and Endangered Species Project E-142, Idaho Dept. Fish and Game, Boise ID. 72 pp.

Wakkinen, W.L. and W.F. Kasworm. 1999. Rates and causes of grizzly bear mortality in the interior mountains of British Columbia, Alberta, Montana, Washington, and Idaho. J. Wildl. Manage.63:911-920.

Wilson, S.J. and R.J. Hebda. 2008. Mitigating and adapting to climate change through the Conservation of Nature. Report to Land Trust Alliance of BC. 58 pp.

CURRICULUM VITAE

Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist (R.P.Bio.) President, McCrory Wildlife Services Ltd. Box 479, New Denver, British Columbia, Canada V0G 1S0 Phone (250) 358-7796 / Fax: (250) 358-7950 / E-mail: [email protected] ______

April 2010 (Last up-date)

EDUCATION

B.Sc. Honours Zoology, University of British Columbia, 1966. Course emphasis: Wildlife management. Honors thesis on sub-speciation of mountain goats (published), thesis advisor was Dr. Ian McTaggart-Cowan.

PROFESSIONAL LICENCE

Registered Professional Biologist (R.P.Bio.), British Columbia. Member #168

PROFESSIONAL SOCIETIES

¾ Member, College of Applied Biology (Registered Professional Biologist (R.P.Bio.) ¾ Member of, and contributor to, the International Association for Bear Research and Management, also known as the International Bear Association (IBA). With members from some 50 countries, the organization supports the scientific management of bears through research and distribution of information, and sponsors international conferences on all aspects of bear biology, ecology and management. Have presented at numerous international conferences and have had peer-reviewed scientific papers published in the journal Ursus, the IBA's annual journal.

EXPERTISE SUMMARY

A broad ecological background including extensive experience in: ¾ Bear hazard assessments ¾ Management guidelines for parks and conservation areas ¾ Mammal habitat inventories ¾ Waterfowl/bird surveys ¾ Caribou inventories

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist 2

¾ Forestry-wildlife research ¾ Environmental impact assessments ¾ Conservation biology assessments ¾ Population inventory and assessments, population management ¾ Species at risk assessments ¾ Wildlife viewing programs ¾ Trail routing and tourism studies

Highlights:

¾ 30 years experience in bear ecology, habitat mapping and bear safety and conservation issues, specifically bear hazard assessments and management guidelines for government agencies such as BC Parks, Parks Canada, and municipalities. Have worked for parks agencies across western Canada and the Yukon/NWT. (Publications list which follows demonstrates the range of locations and studies completed.) ¾ Served 3 years on the B.C. Ministry of Environment’s grizzly bear scientific advisory committee. ¾ More recently, carried out 6 bear hazard assessments for municipal governments and park agencies in southwestern B.C. ¾ Helped to establish, and have worked with, the Valhalla Wilderness Society for the past 30 years. We have protected of 1.25 million acres of public lands for bears. President of the Valhalla Foundation, which has protected private lands with high ecological values. Have been instrumental in the protection of numerous conservation areas and parks, including Valhalla Provincial Park, the Khutzemateen Grizzly Sanctuary, the Goat Range Provincial Park and the Spirit Bear Conservation Area. ¾ Hired as advisor and guide to bear films and documentaries (list below). ¾ Developed and led guided group outings as part of my “Safer Travel in Bear Country” program (approx. 1,000 people taken through this training program). ¾ Produced, or contributed significantly to, over 80 professional research/management reports as well as 7 published research papers (list follows).

VOLUNTARY WORK

¾ Director, Valhalla Wilderness Society ¾ President, Valhalla Foundation for Ecology and Social Justice ¾ Board Member, Get Bear Smart Society

In addition, provide scientific expertise on bear management issues for a broad range of nonprofit groups, and act as a peer reviewer for conservation organizations’ scientific reports. I have recently provided support for: the David Suzuki Foundation, the Western Canada Wilderness Committee, West Coast Environmental Law, Ecojustice, the Sierra Club, Environmental Investigation Agency (London, England), Friends of Nemaiah Valley, Friends of Ecological Reserves, Rainforest

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist 3

Action Network, Defenders of Wildlife, Jumbo Wild, West Kootenay EcoCentre, Great Bear Foundation, Raincoast Conservation Society, Bear Watch, North Shore Black Bear Network, Northern Lights Wildlife Rehabilitation Centre, the Xeni- Gwetin First Nation, Williams Lake Indian Band, Federation of Mountain Clubs of BC, and The Land Conservancy of BC.

FILM PROJECTS AND DOCUMENTARIES

Frequently work as a scientific advisor, bear guide, and/or on-camera personality for nature documentaries on bears, parks and conservation issues. A partial list of productions I have been involved with:

Productions featuring Wayne McCrory and his conservation work:

¾ Champions of the Wild (Wayne McCrory: Spirit Bears and Grizzlies) (Omni Film Productions for Knowledge Network) ¾ The Grizzly Man From New Denver: Wayne McCrory (The Leading Edge: Innovation in BC. Knowledge Network) ¾ Lucy, The Bear Detective (Dogs With Jobs. Featuring Wayne McCrory and Lucy, his bear research dog. Knowledge Network) ¾ Goat Range Provincial Park – Great Canadian Parks (Good Earth Productions) ¾ Island of the Ghost Bear (Nature: BBC TV) ¾ The Garden of the Grizzlies (Global Family: TVO--TV Ontario) ¾ Great Canadian Parks: Khutzeymateen (Good Earth Productions for Knowledge Network) ¾ Land of the Spirit Bear (Spirit Bear Youth Coalition) ¾ Great Canadian Parks: Spirit Bear (Good Earth Productions for Knowledge Network) ¾ Great Canadian Parks: Kitlope (Good Earth Productions for Knowledge Network) ¾ Ushuaia Nature: Des origines aux mondes perdus (in French. Production on rare animals featuring Wayne McCrory’s work on Spirit Bears. TFI – France Television Network) ¾ The Green Inlet – Spirit Bear (Good Earth Productions) ¾ L’ours Kermode: La Semaine Verte (in French. French CBC) ¾ Wild Horses, Unconquered People (Omni Film Productions Ltd.) ¾ Tiere die Geschichte schrieben: Das Pferd (in German. Includes Wayne McCrory’s work protecting Wild Horses. Matthey Film Productions) ¾ The Nature of Things: Khutzemateen (CBC) ¾ The Nature of Things: The Salmon Forest (CBC) ¾ The Nature of Things: Grizzly Bears: Losing Ground (CBC) ¾ The Fifth Estate: Khutzeymateen (CBC) ¾ Wild Things: British Columbia’s Wild West Coast (Wild Exposure Preservation Productions)

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist 4

¾ Spirit Bear (Cross-Country Canada. CBC) ¾ Numerous television news reports and talk shows

Provided scientific information and/or acted as bear safety guide:

¾ Caught in the Moment: Grizzlies (Tigress Productions, UK) ¾ Princess Royal Island (Great Bear Foundation) ¾ Spirit Bears (NHK: Japan Broadcasting Corp.) ¾ A Future for the Grizzly? (The Grizzly Project) ¾ Island of the Spirit Bear (Raincoast Conservation Society) ¾ The Science of Survival: Grizzly Bear Management in British Columbia (Electric Bamboo Productions) ¾ The Last Mustangs (Patrice Halley) ¾ Big Bear Week (BBC) ¾ Skeena Journal: Khutzemateen (CBC) ¾ NRDC Spirit Bear Campaign (Natural Resources Defence Council, USA) ¾ Save the Great Spirit Bear Rainforest (Corky Productions) ¾ Canadian Coastal Rainforest – the Spirit Bear (in Japanese. Ikimono Chikyu Kiko Productions) ¾ Cap sur les terres vierges du grizzli (In French. Les Productions Espace Vert XII inc.) ¾ Canada’s Vanishing Grizzly (Friends of Ecological Reserves) ¾ Trigger Happy (Environmental Investigation Agency, UK) ¾ White Grizzly (Discovery Channel)

PROFESSIONAL STUDIES AND PUBLICATIONS:

Scientific publications in proceedings or refereed journals

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1991. An update on using bear hazard evaluation as a means to minimize conflicts between people and bears in recreation situations. Proceedings of the Grizzly Management Workshop, Revelstoke, B.C. pp: 57-62

McCrory, W., S. Herrero, G. Jones, and E. Mallam. 1990. The role of the B.C. provincial park system in grizzly bear preservation. Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Bear Research & Management, Victoria, B.C. 6 pp.

McCrory, W.P., S. Herrero and G. Jones. 1987. Program to minimize conflicts between grizzly bears and people in British Columbia provincial parks. Paper presented at Bear - People Conflicts Symposium, Yellowknife, N.W. T. April 1987.

McCrory, W., S. Herrero. and P. Whitfield. 1986. Using grizzly habitat information to reduce human-grizzly bear conflicts in Kokanee Glacier and Valhalla Provincial Parks, BC. In Proc. - Grizzly Bear Habitat Symposium: 24-30. Contreras, G.P. and K.E. Evans (compilers). U.S.D.A. Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-207.

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist 5

Herrero, S., W. McCrory and B. Pelchat. 1983. The application of grizzly bear habitat evaluation to trail and campsite locations in Kananaskis Provincial Park, Alberta. International Conference on Bear Research and Management gt 6:187-193

McCrory, W., D. A. Blood, D. Portman and D. Harwood. 1977. Mountain goat surveys in Yoho National Park, British Columbia. Proc. First Int. Mountain Goat Symp.:69-73.

Cowan, Ian McT. and Wayne McCrory. 1970. Variation in the mountain goat Oreamnos americanus (Blainville). Journ. of Mammalogy 51, No. 1: 60-73.

Research/Management Reports (some peer reviewed)

Craighead, L. and W. P. McCrory. 2010. A preliminary core conservation review of the dryland grizzly bear of the Chilcotin Ranges in British Columbia. Report to Friends of Nemaiah Valley, Valhalla Wilderness Society and Xeni Gwet’in First Nation Government.

McCrory, W.P. and P. Paquet. 2009. Proposed bear viewing strategy for the K’ztim-a-deen (Khutzeymateen) Grizzly Bear Sanctuary & K’tzim-a-deen Inlet Conservancies, British Columbia. Report for the K’tzim-a-deen Management Committee & Planning Process, Prince Rupert, B.C.

McCrory, W. 2009a. Assessment of trails for the Xeni Gwet’in tourism project -wildlife and cultural/heritage values & wild horse tourism areas.

McCrory, W. 2009b. Notes & outline & ideas for background review of bear viewing plan/strategy for the Mussel River and Poison Cove area, Fiordlands Conservancy. Report for BC Parks and Kitasoo First Nation.

McCrory, W. 2009c. 2008 black bear risk assessment & management recommendations for public recreation trails – The Lower Seymour Conservation Reserve (LSCR). Report to Metro Vancouver Watershed Division.

McCrory, W. 2009d. 2008 black bear risk assessment & management recommendations for Lynn Headwaters Regional Park - hiking network between Grouse Mountain Resort and Goat Mountain/Ridge. Report to Metro Vancouver Parks Department.

McCrory, W. 2009e. 2008 notes on preliminary black bear risk assessment & management recommendations for restricted access areas – Metro Vancouver Watershed Division.

McCrory, W. 2008a. 2007- 2008 black bear risk assessment - Minnekhada Regional Park. Report for Metro Vancouver Parks.

McCrory, W. 2008b. 2007- 2008 black bear risk assessment – Kanaka Creek Regional Park. Report for Metro Vancouver Parks.

McCrory, W. 2008c. Black bear risk assessment and management recommendations for Metro Vancouver Regional Parks.

Paquet, M.M. and W.P. McCrory. 2007. Bear hazard assessment – City of Coquitlam.

McCrory, W. 2007. Black bear habitat and corridor map project, Resort Municipality of Whistler (RMOW). Draft.

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist 6

McCrory, W. 2006. Bear hazard assessment and problem analysis. Phase I application for Bear Smart Community Status. District Municipalities of North & West Vancouver, City of North Vancouver, B.C.

McCrory, W. 2005. Bear hazard assessment - problem analysis report & proposed bear-people conflict prevention plan, Britannia Bay Properties Ltd., British Columbia.

McCrory, W. and B. Cross. 2005. A preliminary review of potential impacts of snowmobile recreation on grizzly bear winter denning habitats and wolverine winter natal/maternal denning habitats in S.E. Kakwa Provincial Park, B.C. with GIS grizzly bear and wolverine den habitat models. Report to B.C. Parks. 31 pp.

McCrory, W.P. 2005. Proposed bear-people conflict prevention plan for Resort Municipality of Whistler.

McCrory, W.P., and Paquet, M.M. 2005. Bear hazard & problem analysis report & proposed bear-people conflict prevention plan, District of Squamish, British Columbia.

McCrory, W. 2005. Background tourism feasibility study – wild species viewing & guidelines. Xeni Gwet’in First Nation, Chilcotin, B.C.

McCrory, W. 2005. Proposed access management plan for Xeni Gwet’in First Nation Caretaker Area, Chilcotin, B.C.

McCrory, W. 2005. Roads to Nowhere. Technical review of ecological damage & proposed restoration related to B.C. Ministry of Forests control actions – 2003 Chilko Wildfire, B.C. Re: bulldozed fireguards & access roads & peat meadow damage. Report to Friends of Nemaiah Valley, Victoria, B.C.

McCrory, W.P. 2004. Preliminary bear hazard assessment of Resort Municipality of Whistler (RMOW). Submitted to RMOW. 107 pp.

McCrory, W.P. 2004. Bear habitat ground-truthing surveys of Resort Municipality of Whistler, August 14 – 23/04 by McCrory Wildlife Services Ltd. for Terrestrial Ecosystem Mapping classification and seasonal bear habitat rankings. Draft to Whistler Community Habitat Resources Project (CHRP).

McCrory, W.P., M. Williams, B. Cross, L. Craighead, P. Paquet, A. Craighead and T. Merrill. 2004. Grizzly bear, wildlife and human use of a major protected wildlife corridor in the Canadian Rockies, Kakwa Provincial Park, B.C. Draft progress report to Valhalla Wilderness Society and Y2Y Wilburforce Science Symposium. Draft & In Press.

McCrory, W.P., P. Paquet, and B. Cross. 2003. Assessing conservation values for gray wolf and Sitka deer - BC central coast rainforest. Report to the Valhalla Wilderness Society, New Denver, B.C.

McCrory, W.P. 2003. A bear hazard study of recreational facilities in a major grizzly bear travel corridor with management recommendations to minimize conflicts – A GIS Grizzly Bear Encounter Risk Model. Kakwa Provincial Park, B.C. Report to B.C. Parks. 174 pp.

McCrory, W.P. 2003. Ecological connectivity – 2003. Multi-year study of grizzly/wildlife movements & application to GIS corridor model design – Kakwa grizzly bear – wildlife corridor pilot study. Research proposal submitted to Wilburforce Foundation, Y2Y Conservation Initiative.

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist 7

McCrory, W. 2003. Preliminary bear hazard evaluation. E.C. Manning and Skagit Valley Provincial Parks & Cascade Recreation Area. Report to B.C. Parks, Okanagan District, Penticton, B.C.

McCrory, W.P. 2002. Black bear hazard & habitat assessment, Diamond Head Area – Garibaldi Provincial Park, B.C. Incorporating a Geographic Information System (GIS) Decision-Support Model. Report to B.C. Parks, Brackendale, B.C. 117 pp.

McCrory, W.P. 2002. Preliminary conservation assessment of the Rainshadow Wild Horse Ecosystem, Brittany Triangle, British Columbia, Canada. A review of grizzly and black bears, other wildlife, feral horses and wild salmon. Report to Friends of Nemaiah Valley (FONV), Victoria, B.C.

McCrory, W.P. and B. Cross. 2001. Trails, Hiking Routes, Roads, Campsites and Other Facilities in Southeast Kakwa Provincial Park, B.C. Composite map to B.C. Parks. Colour DEM, 1:37,600 scale, plus tables with trail descriptors. Updated in 2004.

McCrory, W.P. 2001. Background review for a bear hazard study and bear-people conflict prevention plan for E.C. Manning and Skagit Valley Provincial Parks and Cascade Recreation Area. Report to BC Parks, Summerland, B.C. 55 pp.

McCrory, W.P., J. Bergdahl, P. Paquet and B. Cross. 2001. A conservation area design for protection of the white black bear (Ursus americanus kermodei) on the central coast of British Columbia. Report to Valhalla Wilderness Society, New Denver, B.C. In Press.

McCrory, W.P. 2000. A review of the bear-people management program for Kokanee Glacier Provincial Park, BC. Report to BC Parks, Nelson, BC. 88 pp.

McCrory, W.P., C. McTavish and P. Paquet. 1999. Grizzly bear background research document. 1993-1996 for GIS bear encounter risk model, Yoho National Park, British Columbia. A background report for the GIS Decision-Support Model for the Lake 0’Hara/McArthur Valley Socio-ecological study. Parks Canada. 96 pp. plus appendices.

McTavish, C. and W. McCrory, 1998. Grizzly/black bear habitat assessment. Stoltmann Wilderness. Elaho River Drainage, British Columbia, Canada. Report to Western Canada Wilderness Committee, Vancouver, B.C.

McCrory. W.P. 1998. Bear habitat and hazard assessment. Duffey Lake Provincial Park, British Columbia. Report to BC Parks, Brackendale, BC. 29 pp plus appendices.

McCrory, W. 1998. A preliminary bear habitat and hazard assessment, Kakwa Lake area. Kakwa Recreation and Protected Area, British Columbia. Report to B.C. Parks, include. GIS bear habitat map. 35 pp.

McCrory, W. 1998b. Progress notes - Bear habitat assessments (Aug. 16-25/98) re- study design for a GIS bear encounter risk model for Kakwa Recreation and Protected Area, British Columbia. Report to B.C. Parks and Habitat Conservation Trust Fund. 12 pp. plus tables.

McCrory, W. and T. Leja. 1998. Preliminary bear hazard assessment, proposed Summit Meadow Ridge Trail, Mt. Revelstoke National Park, B.C. Report to Parks Canada Warden Service, Revelstoke, B.C.

McCrory, W. 1997. Bear conflict prevention plan for Akamina Kishinena Provincial Park, B.C. (1997-2001). Report to B.C. Parks, Wasa, B.C.

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist 8

McCrory, W. 1997a. Preliminary evaluation of bear habitats in Moose Creek and comments on the potential impacts of the proposed magnetite mine development. Progress report to Parks Canada - Yoho/Lake Louise/Kootenay.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1997b. Grizzly bear habitats and trail hazard assessment for Ottertail fire road and Goodsir Pass Trail-Goodsir Flats. Progress report to Parks Canada - Yoho/Lake Louise/Kootenay.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1995a. Revised grizzly bear capability for Wells Gray Provincial Park, biophysical map. Report to BC Parks, Kamloops, B.C. 40 pp.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1995b. Preliminary bear hazard assessment of Wells Gray Provincial Park. Report to BC Parks, Kamloops, B.C. 20 pp.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1995. Year two progress report. Grizzly bear habitats and trail hazard assessment - for Lake O'Hara/McArthur Valley socio-ecological study. 32 pp.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1994. Assessment of bear habitats and hazards. Liard River Hot Springs Provincial Park, British Columbia. Report to BC Parks, Fort St. John, BC.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1994. Bear hazard assessment and recommendations. Cougar Valley and Balu Pass Trails, Glacier National Park, B.C. Report for Parks Canada Warden Service, Revelstoke, B.C.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1994. Bear hazard assessment and management recommendations. The Odaray Prospect-McArthur Pass area (Lake O'Hara) and the McArthur Creek Valley. Report to Yoho National Park, Heritage Resource Conservation Service. 102 pp.

McCrory, W. 1994. Values of a fully protected Kitlope Ecosystem for bears. Report to Nanakila Institute, Kitimaat Village, B.C. Draft.

McCrory, W., G. Copeland and E. Mallam. 1993. A proposed management framework for the Khutzeymateen grizzly sanctuary, B.C. Report to Valhalla Wilderness Society, Friends of Ecological Reserves and World Wildlife Fund. Draft. 32 pp.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1992. Grizzly bear resource management report, Kokanee Glacier Park and Recreation Area. Report to B.C. Parks. 32 pp.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1992. Grizzly bear habitat/hazard assessment of recreation trails in Marten Creek and Idaho Lookout area. Report to Ministry of Forests, Castlegar, B.C.

McCrory, W., E. Mallam and G. Copeland. 1991. A proposal for a white grizzly wilderness park in the Goat Range of British Columbia. Report to Valhalla Wilderness Society.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1990. Preliminary bear hazard evaluation for Bowron Lake Provincial Park, B.C. Report to BC Parks, Prince George, B.C. 73 pp.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1990 Bear hazard evaluation in Monashee Provincial Park, B.C. Report to B.C. Parks, Kamloops, B.C. 22pp.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1990. Bear hazard evaluation in areas of Mt. Robson Provincial Park, B.C. Report to B.C. Parks, Prince George, B.C. 20 pp.

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist 9

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1990. Bear hazard evaluation in Monkman Provincial Park, B.C. Report to B.C. Parks, Prince George B.C. 19 pp.

McCrory, W.P., and E. Mallam. 1989. Bear-people management plan for the Atnarko River, Tweedsmuir Provincial Park, B.C. Report to B.C. Parks, Prince George, B.C. Parts I & II.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1989. Bear Management Plan, West Kootenay District, BC Parks (1989-1994). Part 1 and Part 11 (Background document).

McCrory, W.P. and E. Mallam. 1988. Grizzly bear viewing and bear-salmon interpretive potential along the Atnarko River, Tweedsmuir Provincial Park. Report to B.C. Parks, Victoria, B.C. December 1988.

McCrory, W.P. and E. Mallam. 1988 Ecological, preservation and public appreciation values and potential logging impacts in the proposed Khutzeymateen grizzly sanctuary, B.C. Final report to Friends of Ecological Reserves, World Wildlife Fund and other sponsors. 93 pp.

McCrory, W.P. and E. Mallam. 1987. Grizzly bear hazard evaluation - Elk Lakes Park and Recreation Area, Mt. Assiniboine Park and Purcell Wilderness Conservancy, B.C. B.C. Parks Division, Kamloops, B.C.

McCrory, W., S. Herrero and E. Mallam. 1987. Preservation and management of the grizzly bear in BC Provincial Parks - The Urgent Challenge. Report to BC Parks Division, Victoria, BC. 187 pp.

McCrory, W. and E. Mallam. 1985. An assessment of grizzly and black bear habitat in Hamber Provincial Park, B.C. with recommendations to reduce human-bear conflicts. Report to B.C. Parks. 57 pp.

McCrory, W.P. 1985 Grizzly bear habitat and out door recreation in Kokanee Glacier Provincial Park, B.C. Conflicts and recommendations. Volume 1. B.C. Parks Division. 118 p.

McCrory, W.P. 1984. An evaluation of grizzly bear habitat capability and use and recreation developments in Valhalla Provincial Park, B.C. Parks Division. 153 pp.

McCrory, W. 1979. An inventory of the mountain goats of Glacier and Mount Revelstoke National Parks, British Columbia. Parks Canada Rep., Western Region. Glacier National Park, Revelstoke, BC. 200 pp. typescript.

McCrory, W.P. and D.A. Blood. 1978. An inventory of the mammals of Yoho National Park, British Columbia. Parks Canada, W.R.O., Calgary, Alta. Assisted by Park Wardens and Naturalists. 269 pp.

McCrory, W. 1965. Variation in the mountain goat (Oreamnos americanus). B.Sc Honors Zoology Thesis. University of British Columbia. 44 pp.

Curriculum Vitae: Wayne P. McCrory, Registered Professional Biologist

2010

Xeni Gwet’in Community‐based Climate Change Adaptation Plan

Prepared for: The XENI GWET’IN FIRST NATION by ECOLIBRIO in collaboration with Cariboo Envirotech, McCrory Wildlife Services, Orman Consulting, Theo Mylnowski and Project Management Services 3/31/2010 1

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This report would not have been possible without the expertise and assistance of many people. We would like to acknowledge the project steering committee (Catherine Haller, Bonnie Myers, Charlene Lulua, Conway Lulua, Elsie Quilt, Vera Quilt, Maryann Solomon, Annie C. Williams, and Wilfred William) for their advice and input throughout the study. We would also like to sincerely thank the elders of the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation for their recollections, responding to the project survey and project presentations with patience and wisdom and Rita Coombs and Sylvie Quilt for cooking for us during our community meetings.

Special thanks to Chief Marilyn Baptiste, Councilor Lois Williams and Councilor Benny William for their support of the project. The project team also acknowledges the indispensable support from Nancy Oppermann and Pam Quilt regarding project management and coordination expertise and from David Setah for superb translation during key meetings. You all helped make sure the project ran smoothly. Another special thanks to Tracy Tanis for her amazing communication skills and her ability to make science fun for kids. We also gratefully acknowledge the Xeni Gwet’in school kids for assisting in presenting adaptation strategies to the community. And last but not least we would like to thank our team colleagues Deb Delong of Orman Consulting, Rick Holmes of Cariboo Envirotech and Wayne McCrory of McCrory Wildlife Serves and Theo Mylnowski for their scientific expertise and their willingness to think outside the box.

John Lerner and Tine Rossing Ecolibrio

Please Note: The Tsilhqot’in have met the test for aboriginal title in the lands described in Tsilhqot’in Nation v. British Columbia, 2007 BCSC 1700 (“Tsilhqot’in Nation”). These lands are within the Tsilhqot’in traditional territory and the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation’s caretaking area. Nothing in this document shall abrogate or derogate from any aboriginal title or aboriginal rights of the Tsilhqot’in, the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation or any Tsilhqot’in or Xeni Gwet’in members.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

1. INTRODUCTION 1.1. Why Climate Change is Important 1 1.2. Why adaptation to climate change is necessary 1 1.3. Overview of the Study 3

2. METHODOLOGY 2.1. Rationale of the Study 3 2.2. Objectives of the Study 3 2.3. Approach 4 2.4. Framework for Assessment 4 2.5. Tools and Methods 4 2.6. Data nalysis 6 A 2.7. Community Engagement 7

3. BACKGROUND 3.1. Description of the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area 7 3.2. Geography 10 3.3. Socioeconomic Context 11 ‐

4. CLIMATE CHANGES: PAST TRENDS AND FUTUER PROJECTIONS 4.1. General Climate 12 4.2. BEC Zones 13 4.3. Historical Climate Trends 14 4.4. Climate Projections 17

5. CURRENT AND PROJECTED BIOPHYSICAL IMPACTS 5.1. Water Resources 22 5.2. Forest and Vegetation 29 5.3. Wildlife, Wild Horses 38 5.4. Fishery 42

6. VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 6.1. Biodiversity 49 6.2. Health and Safety 50 6.3. Water Supply 51 6.4. Food Supply 52 6.5. Shelter and Infrastructure 53 6.6. Energy Supply 54

6.7. Livelihood 55 6.8. Governance 56 6.9. Culture 57

7. XENI GWET’IN VISION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 58

8. ADAPTATION STRATEGIES 8.1. Biodiversity Protection and Conservation 58 8.2. Health and Safety Enhancements 60 8.3. Water Supply Protection and Conservation 62 8.4. Food Supply Protection and Diversification 63 8.5. Shelter and Infrastructure Improvements 64 8.6. Energy Supply Protection, Conservation and Diversification 64 8.7. Livelihood Diversification 65 8.8. Good Governance 67 8.9. Cultural Preservation 67

9. CLIMATE ADAPTATION ACTION & MONITORING PLAN 69

REFERENCES 80

ANNEE X S – BACKGROUND PAPERS 85 1. Water Resources and Climate Change in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area 2. Climate Change Impacts on Forests and Vegetation in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area 3. Climate Change and Wildlife and Wild Horse Impacts in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area 4. The Impacts of Climate Change on the Fishery Resource in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area

iii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Climate change may be the defining issue of our generation. Since the Industrial Revolution, the mean surface temperature of Earth has increased an average 0.6°C (Celsius) due to the accumulation of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere.1 Historically, the Earth is accustomed to experiencing wide‐spread severe environmental change and has always been able to adapt to these changes accordingly. Yet, the difference now is the speed and scale of the warming that is currently occurring. Most of this change has occurred within the past 30 to 40 years, and the rate of increase is accelerating. These rising temperatures will have significant impacts at a global scale and at local and regional levels. As a result, climate change will increasingly impact natural and human systems to alter the productivity, diversity and functions of many ecosystems and livelihoods globally.

For resource‐dependent communities, such as many First Nations in BC, climate change may increasingly compound existing vulnerabilities as the availability and quality of natural resources that they heavily depend upon decline. Limited resources and capacities for responding to stresses, such as wildfires, floods and droughts will increasingly constrain their ability to meet basic needs and become self‐governing. There is, therefore, an urgent need to begin reducing current vulnerabilities and enhancing adaptive capacity of the communities so that people of these communities can face the longer‐term impac ts of climate change with resilience.

The Xeni Gwet’in First Nation is one of six Tsilhqot’in communities in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin, occupying one of the last intact ecosystems on the east side of the Chilcotin range. While the community is relatively dynamic and healthy, it is still healing from the effects of colonization and the residential school system, it is increasingly experiencing stress over resource use conflicts in their traditional territory (Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area) and it is increasingly experiencing some of the early impacts of climate change (forest fire and fish stock declines). These impacts alone have left the Xeni Gwet’in somewhat anxious for their future but also determined to face it on their own terms. They envision a development and human activity in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area, which is grounded in an ecosystem‐based approach to land use, minimizing human impact on the land and waters, leaving it as much as possible as a self‐sustaining, wild environment with clean water, clean air and abundant fish and wildlife.

According to ClimateBC projections, the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area (XGCA) can expect to see an average increase of 2.5 degrees Celsius and an increase of 104 mm of precipitation by 2050. This increase in temperature will be relatively uniform across the Chilko watershed, but precipitation will mostly increase in mountains at higher elevations. Most of this precipitation is snow, but will decrease to nearly 50 percent by 2050. Seasonally, most of the temperature increase will occur in the winter and spring and the precipitation increase during the fall and winter will become wetter. Summers will become drier. Finally, the higher the locations will experience the colder and wetter climate and the lower the locations will experience the warmer and dryer climate.

In the short‐term, these changes in climate will likely increase the incidences of wild fires in the region, which may put the health, property, water, energy, cultural sites and livelihoods in the XGCA at risk. In the mid to long‐term, the warmer weather could also threaten water flows and water quality, especially in the dryer areas of the XGCA like the Chilcotin Plateau. This in turn could have serious negative ramifications for salmon stocks and other cool water fish stocks in the region.

1 World Bank (2010).

These longer‐term impacts could weaken wild food security and water security among the Xeni Gwet’in as well as jeopardize certain tourism and energy projects. At the same time, long‐term climate changes may not be all bad. A warmer climate could present new opportunities for agricultural growth, a longer tourist season and new eco‐forestry development in the XGCA.

These projected changes are by no means guaranteed but they are probable enough that the Xeni Gwet’in would do well to prepare rather than do nothing. The best form of preparation in this case is to strengthen the resilience of the Xeni Gwet’in community, which entails strengthening key support systems (see table below). Key measures include strengthening emergency procedures associated with fire and flooding, protecting and conserving potable water supplies, protecting shelter and infrastructure; protecting, conserving and diversifying energy supplies and food supplies, diversifying livelihoods, and preserving traditional culture. However, perhaps the most effective way of building the resilience of the Xeni Gwet’in community is to protect and conserve the biodiversity of the XGCA. The land is integral to the Xeni Gwet’in culture and way of life and the healthier the land is, the healthier and more resilient the Xeni Gwet’in will be. Moreover, a healthy ecosystem will benefit not just the Xeni Gwet’in but all residents of the XGCA and other adjacent and downstream ecosystems and communities.

Climate Adaptation Goals Objectives Biodiversity Protection and Conservation • Maintain the XGCA as an intact ecosystem • Conserve Wildlife and Wild Horses in the XGCA • Conserve Fish Stocks • Preserve Wild Plants & the Habitats in the XGCA Health and Safety Enhancements • Protect Residents and Key Cultural Sites from Wild Fires in the XGCA • Protect Residents and Key Cultural Sites from Floods in the XGCA Water Supply Protection and Conservation • Protect Key Potable Water Sources • Conserve Potable Water Food Supply Protection and Diversification • Conserve and Use Wild Food Sources • Increase Development and Diet Cultivated Food Sources • Increase Preservation of Wild and Cultivated Foods Shelter and Infrastructure Protection • Protect Shelter and Infrastructure • Reduce risk of Mould, Mildew and Rot Energy Supply Protection, Conservation and • Protect Existing Energy Sources Diversification • Strengthen Energy Conservation • Continue Energy Diversification Livelihood Diversification • Develop Nature‐based Aboriginal Tourism • Develop Eco‐forestry and Wood Products • Develop Natural/Organic Agriculture • Develop Other Adaptive Enterprise Opportunities Good Governance • Incorporate Climate Adaptation Strategies into Local Governance Objectives Cultural Preservation • Protect the Xeni Gwet’in Culture • Celebrate the Xeni Gwet’in Culture

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1. Why Climate Change is Important for the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation

Climate change may be the defining issue of our generation, since the challenge that it presents the world is so pervasive and complex. The mean surface temperature of Earth has increased an average 0.6°C (Celsius) since the Industrial Revolution, and increasing scientific evidence suggests that this is due to the accumulation of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) in the atmosphere.2 Historically, the Earth has been accustomed to experiencing wide‐spread severe environmental change and has always been able to adapt to these changes accordingly. Yet, the difference now is the speed and scale of the warming that is currently occurring. Most of this change has occurred within the past 30 to 40 years, and the rate of increase is accelerating. These rising temperatures will have significant impacts at a global scale and at local and regional levels. As a result, climate change will increasingly impact natural and human systems to alter the productivity, diversity and functions of many ecosystems and livelihoods globally.

For resource‐dependent communities, such as most First Nations in Canada, climate change may increasingly compound existing vulnerabilities. Many First Nations communities are remote and/or tied closely to the land. Many are also weak economically and are still healing from colonization and the residential school system. As climate change accelerates and stresses the availability and quality of natural resources that these communities depend upon, it may affect their food and water security, their culture and their livelihoods. Limited resources and capacities to respond to stresses like floods, droughts and sea level rise, will increasingly constrain the ability of First Nations to meet basic needs, emerge from poverty and realize self‐government. There is, therefore, a need to reduce current vulnerabilities and enhance adaptive capacity of these communities so that they can face the longer‐term impacts of climate change with some confidence and on their own terms.

The Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Government, which is one of six Tsilhqot’in communities, occupies one of the last intact ecosystems on the east side of the Chilcotin range. Despite this relatively healthy ecosystem, the community is already facing changes in climate changes and impacts thereof including forest fires, drought, and fish stock decline. Forest fires, were particularly widespread in 2009, putting at risk personal property and livelihoods associated with tourism and ranching (key engines in the area).

1.2. Why adaptation to climate change is necessary

While reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and reversing climate change are important long‐term goals, many of the climate change impacts are already in evidence and will accelerate. The Xeni Gwet’in people, who are already vulnerable, will, therefore, need to prepare for the consequences of increasing global warming over the next 20‐50 years. The Xeni Gwet’in already have few resources to reduce the risk posed by climate change, such as drought and wild fires and long‐term changes to wildlife and fish stocks. Hence, adaptation preparations to cope with the existing and forthcoming risks are critical now.

2 World Bank (2010).

Adaptation to climate change is typically aimed at reducing vulnerability to its adverse effects through efforts to enhance adaptive capacity and resilience of a given ecosystem and/or community. Hence, in order for the Xeni Gwet’in to reduce their vulnerability to climate change, they must focus on building their adaptive capacity, while reducing their exposure and sensitivity to climate impacts.

Box 1: Key definitions associated with adaptation

Impact: The way a human or natural system is affected by environmental change, including climate effects.1 Risk: In the context of environmental change, risk refers to the threat posed by a change, i.e. the probability of an adverse impact. Climate change risk is a function of the magnitude of an individual hazard and/or change and the degree of vulnerability of a system (or a community) to that hazard and/or change. Unless a system (or community) is vulnerable to the hazard, there is no risk.1

Coping: Short‐term actions to ward off immediate risk, rather than to adjust to continuous or permanent threats or changes – strategies usually rely on selling or using up assets or resources. Coping strategies are often the same set of measures that have been used before. When using coping strategies as the response to stress, it is possible that vulnerability will increase in the long term.1 Adaptation: Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.1

Adaptive capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.2 Vulnerability: The degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.2 Resilience: The ability of a community to resist, absorb, and recover from the effects of hazards in a timely and efficient manner, preserving or restoring its essential basic structures, functions and identity.2 It should be noted that the terms “adaptation” and “coping” are often used interchangeably. However, these two terms are distinctly differe nt, as demonstrated by the characteristics below.3

Coping Adapt ation • Short‐term and immediate • Oriented towards longer term livelihoods • Oriented towards survival security • Not continuous • A continuous process • Motivated by crisis, reactive • Results are sustained • Often degrades resource base • Uses resource efficiently and sustainably • Prompted by a lack of alternatives • Involves planning • Combines old and new strategies and knowledge • Focused on finding alternatives

Sources: 1: ICIMOD, 2009. Local Responses to Too Much and Too Little Water in the Greater Himalayan Region; 2: IPPC, 2007 3: CARE 2009, Climate Vulnerability & Capacity Analysis Handbook.

1.3. Overview of the Study

Following brief introductory and methodology sections, the geographic and biogeoclimatic context to the XGCA are described in section 3. Section 4 follows with a detailed overview of historical and projected climate changes. Section 5 outlines the biophysical impacts of projected climate changes in the XGCA. Section 6 provides a description of key vulnerabilities in the Xeni Gwet’in community. Section 7 provides a detailed adaptation strategy to address key vulnerabilities and section 8 follows with an Adaptation and Monitoring Action Plan.

2. METHODOLOGY

2.1. Rationale of the Report

This report is the result of Phase I of a Community‐Based Adaptation Project designed to help the Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Government understand and incorporate the potential risks of climate change into current and future land use and livelihood planning efforts. The Xeni Gwet’in live in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area (XGCA), which is located within the southwest region of Cariboo‐Chilcotin Region of British Columbia. The project is envisioned as a two‐phase initiative: Phase I occurring between fall 2009 and spring 2010, and Phase II occurring between spring 2010 and spring 2011, pending INAC approval.

The broad goals of the project were to: • Provide a preliminary assessment of historical and possible future climate change in the XGCA. • Assess the biophysical impacts of these projected climate changes on the XGCA; • Assess the subsequent socio‐economic and cultural impacts on the livelihoods of Xeni Gwet’in First Nation; and • Identify adaptation measures for improving their livelihoods, while reducing their vulnerability to climate change.

2.2. Objectives of the Study

Spec ific project objectives were to: 1. Raise awareness of climate change and its potential impacts in the Xeni Gwet’in community and region 2. Estimate changes in climate in the XGCA in the medium term (to 2020) and longer term (to 2050) (with a focus on changes in temperature and rainfall) 3. Determine the environmental (biophysical) i mpac t s of projec t ed climate changes in the XGCA 4. Carry out a Vulnerability Assessment to help determine necessary adaptation measures to increase resilience of the communities.

5. Develop a realistic and practical Action Plan for adaptation strategies that can be implemented by the community over the next 20 years to improve the resilience of both the XGCA ecosystem and the Xeni Gwet’in community 6. As part of this Action Plan, determine resources for adaptation measures 7. Develop monitoring protocols to measure climate change impacts over the decades to come 8. Develop partnerships with other communities and agencies in the region

2.3. Approach

The project involved 9 tasks: 1. Project Initiation 2. Climate Change Awareness Raising 3. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts 4. Vulnerability Assessment 5. Definition of Community Vision 6. Identification of Adaptation Solutions 7. Preparation of a Community‐based Climate Change Adaptation Strategy & Action Plan 8. Preparation of a Monitoring Plan 9. Presentation of Draft Adaptation Strategy & Action Plan Strategy

2.4. Framework for Assessment

The study drew on several different conceptual frameworks. The main framework was provided by Centre for Indigenous Environmental Resources’ (CIER) Community Adaptation Framework (manuals), which was complemented by the Climate Vulnerability and Capacity Analysis Methodology used by CARE International3 and the Tyndall Group’s vulnerability assessment framework (WEHAB+)4. Together, these chosen methodologies provided the background for a framework to analyze vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate change at the community level. They provided guidance and tools for participatory research, analysis and learning.

2.5. Tools and Methods

The tools and methods employed in this project were multifold, using a combination of community knowledge and scientific data and techniques to yield a better understanding about local climate changes and impacts (Table 1). Key informant interviews were used to collect information on historical climate trends, biophysical impacts, climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation solutions. Key informant interviews were conducted primarily with community elders but also with other members, including Chief and Council. The key informant interviews and associated discussions provided opportunities to link community knowledge with available scientific information on climate change. This served to honour local knowledge of the land and the climate, it helped local stakeholders

3 CARE 2009, Climate Vulnerability & Capacity Analysis Handbook. 4 Surviving Climate Change in Small Islands, Tyndall Group for Climate Change Research

4 understand the implications of climate change and it also served to check the validity of scientific conclusions.

Table 1: List of Study Parameters and Tools Assessment Parameters Tools 1. Historical trend analysis of climate Key informants interviews, data changes and variability 2. Future climate change and variability Computer modeling projection 3. Climate Impact analysis Professional estimations, Literature review, BEC modeling 4. Vulnerability Assessment Literature review, Key informant interviews 5. Adaptation strategies Key informant interviews, Literature review

Secondary information in the form of historical climate data was also used to develop a climate baseline for the study. Literature surveys and professional opinions were used to inform estimates regarding projected biophysical impacts, climate vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies. And computer modeling was used to develop climate projections. Except for the climate modeling, much of the analysis in the report was qualitative. This was due to the short time frame and modest budget of the project as well as the rather limited state of climate impact modeling at the regional and local level.

Climate Projections

Climatic data have been produced by the computer program ClimateBC5, which offers high resolution spatial climate data for current and future climate change scenarios. This is particularly useful for remote regions like the XGCA. Recent climatic variables have been averaged spatially (i.e. with a resolution of roughly 6 km2) throughout the XGCA and temporally for the periods 1961 – 1990 (which we consider as representative of present climate). Future climate projections are based on the Canadian Global Circulation Model version 2 (CGCM2) for two future emission scenarios as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The A1F1 emission (or “worst case”) scenario describes a future world of very rapid economic growth, global population that peaks in the mid‐ century and declines thereafter, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies with an emphasis on fossil fuel energy sources. The B2 emission (or “best case”) scenario describes a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. Both emission scenarios are projected for the 2020’s (i.e., 2020 – 2029) and 2050’s (i.e., 2050 – 2059). In addition, both emission scenarios depict the same general trend; however, the intensity or scale of the trend is different.

Wildlife & Wild Horse Impacts

5 See: http://www.genetics.forestry.ubc.ca/cfcg/climate‐models.html

Conclusions concerning the impact of climate change on XGCA wildlife and wild horses are based on the best information available, including a partial search of the scientific literature, extensive grizzly bear, wildlife and wild horse habitat surveys in the XGCA, discussions with elders, local ranchers and others as well as field observations dating back to the first intensive wildlife surveys in 2001.

Due to the short time frame of this project and the large number of plant and animal species in the XGCA ecosystem, the approach in this section was to select a small number of tree and habitat types that are known to be important to a range of species and use these as well as a small number of animal species as “climate change indicators”. For plants and habitats, a fair amount of literature was available to draw upon. For wildlife species, resiliency assessments were based on the types of overall North American distribution and range of habitats that some of the animals occupy today, and whether the wildlife are specialists or generalists in terms of habitat ranges.

Forest and Vegetation Impacts

Conclusions regarding the impacts of climate change on the XGCA forests and vegetation are based on the specific climate projections for each of the key Biogeoclimatic Ecological Classification (BEC) zones of the XGCA (discussed in section 4.2). The BEC system uses vegetation, soils, and topography to infer the regional climate of a geographic area. Areas of relatively uniform climate are called biogeoclimatic units, where climate refers to the regional climate that influences ecosystems over an extended period of time. The BEC unit can be expressed as statistics derived from normals of precipitation and temperature6 The ClimateBC model was used to forecast potential changes to climatic variables in the medium term (2020 and 2050). The climate projections based on the worst case emissions (A1F1) scenario were used to describe possible effects on the forests of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory. The projected climate variable changes by 2020 and 2050 are presented along with climate normals (1960‐1999) by BEC subzone. Although the model predicts changes to climate envelopes as classified by the BEC system, the changes do not represent changes to the forest ecosystem itself. Potential changes to the forest are inferred with the help of expert opinion and literature reviews7.

Water Resource Impacts

Conclusions regarding the impacts of climate change on XGCA water resources have been developed after extensive literature reviews, particularly recent hydrological research conducting by the Pacific Climate Impact Consortium. In addition to the literature reviews, field observations and water sampling data since 2006 are consulted to establish a baseline.

Fishery Resource Impacts

Conclusions regarding the impacts of climate change on XGCA fishery resources have been developed through extensive literature research. Additionally, the author’s observations are based on a number of fishery research projects undertaken in the XGCA on behalf of the

6 Downloaded from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/HRE/becweb/system/how/index.html. See Appendix 2 for a more detailed description of the BEC system. 7 This simplistic approach was taken due to the budget constraints of this project. Models are now being developed that will project effects of climate change on vegetation (Campbell et al. 2009).

Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Government and the Chilko Resorts and Community Association. All field sampling and observations for these projects were completed based on Resource Inventories Standards Committee (RISC) protocols. This research provided reliable baseline information for fishery resources in the XGCA.

2.6. Data Analysis

The climate projection data were generated by using the ClimateBC model, which offers high resolution spatial climate data for current and future climate change scenarios.8 This program and its approach is particularly useful for generating climatic data for remote regions like the XGCA.

One challenge the team faced in generating climate projection data is that currently it is only possible to get climate information within the Chilko Watershed and not for the whole XGCA. To overcome this obstacle, points were selected at set intervals on four transects (along a north to south direction) in the Chilko Watershed. Based on this data, a summary was prepared on how the climate in the larger area is projected to change. More specifically, recent climatic variables were averaged spatially (i.e. with a resolution of roughly 6 km2) throughout the Chilko River watershed and temporally for the periods 1961 – 1990 (which is generally considered as a valid proxy representative of present climate).

2.7. Community Engagement

The Xeni Gwet’in community w as involved in every stage o f the project:

Project supervision: A local Steering Committee was established to guide the planning process and community extension. Nine members of the community were selected, including the Chief, four staff members, one elder and three members of the community known for their experience of the land. The committee met five times over the course of the project duration and acted as spokespersons in the community and at planned events. Another community member was hired to assist in coordinating project activities.

Community consultation process: General community feedback was collected through 4 public community meetings, with a special emphasis on collecting elder feedback. Three school events were hosted during which the project team engaged the youth in the local school to raise the awareness of climate change and present their ideas for adaptation solutions to the community. Twenty‐eight key informant interviews were conducted to learn about the Xeni Gwet’in knowledge of the land and weather. Four members of the community were employed to carry out these interviews. All interviews and community meetings were held in the Nemiah Valley within the XGCA.

Progress reporting: Regular progress reports, final findings and results of the study were communicated at the Steering Committee meetings and at a community luncheon at the end of the project.

8 For details, please see: http://www.genetics.forestry.ubc.ca/cfcg/climate‐models.html) and Wang and others (2006).

Awareness raising and capacity building: Capacity was built and awareness increased of climate change risks and vulnerabilities by involving community members in the supervision of the project (through the steering committee), engaging the school and hiring of several community members to lead part of the research and consultation.

3. BACKGROUND

3.1. Description of the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area9

The Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area (XGCA) ‐ also referred to as the Chilko River Watershed Area by some10 ‐ is the traditional Tsilhqot’in territory of the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation (hereafter referred to as XGCA). It encompasses a relatively isolated and underdeveloped part of the Chilko Forest Region in British Columbia, and is located 160 km by air or 250 km by road southwest of Williams Lake. The area can be described as the drainage of Chilko Lake, Chilko River, and includes the Taseko Lake and Taseko river system, along with the Tsuniah, Nemiah, and Elkin Valleys (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Map of Chilcotin

Source: Canadian Geographic

9 Ecolibrio (2009); The Xeni Gwet’in Comprehensive Development Plan (2009). 10 See Hammond and others (2004).

The study area includes the Potato Range, Choelquoit Lake Basin, the upper Chilko River, the Tsuniah Range, and portions of the Brittany Triangle and all of the lands in and adjacent to Ts’yl‐os Provincial Park and to the east of Taseko Lake (Figure 2). It also encompasses portions of three of British Columbia’s major landscapes, namely the Chilcotin Plateau, the Chilcotin Ranges, and the Pacific Coast Range. Much of the study area is undisturbed by industrial development and remains in a natural state. This “natural state” has been modified carefully by Xeni Gwet’in management systems for thousands of years.11

Figure 2: Map of XGCA

11 Hammond and others (2004).

3.2. Geography

The study area is located within two of the five major physiographic regions12 of British Columbia: The Coast Mountains and The Interior Plateau. The Coast Mountains and Interior Plateau are further subdivided into smaller more uniform physiographic regions. The southerly two‐thirds of the study area is within the subdivision of the Coast Mountains unit

12 Physiography refers to the physical geography of the land, including the terrain type, elevation, slope position, slope length, slope gradient (steepness), and orientation with respect to solar radiation (aspect). Slope length, slope gradient, and position along the slope also influence soil stability and ecological sensitivity to disturbance (source: Hammond and others (2009), p.13).

10 known as the Chilcotin Ranges. The northerly one‐third of the study area is found within a part of the Interior Plateau known as the Chilcotin Plateau.13

The Chilcotin Ranges Region

The Chilcotin Ranges include the Taseko Lakes, Nemiah Valley, Tsuniah Lake, and the Potato Range. The Chilcotin Ranges consist of gently sloping uplands, rounded mountain summits, and broad, flat‐bottom valleys among the mountain ranges. The mountains are less rugged than those of the Pacific Ranges to the southwest and are generally no higher than 2700 metres in elevation. They show the effects of recent alpine glaciation as well as the effects of continental glaciation by the Cordilleran Ice Sheet during the last ice age. No major glaciers exist in the Chilcotin Ranges at this time, but numerous small isolated icefields are found in cirques in the higher alpine areas. The remnant icefields are associated with steep cirque headwalls, small glacial lakes, and terminal and lateral moraines formed of locally derived material.

The Chilcotin Plateau Region

The Chilcotin Plateau landscape includes the areas north of Choelquoit Lake, and north of a line extending from the north end of Chilko Lake to the north end of Taseko Lake.

The Chilcotin Plateau portion of the study area features level to gently rolling terrain, with an elevation between 1000 and 1500 metres. The upland portion of the Plateau is underlain by flat‐lying bedrock and covered by glacial deposits. Subtle depressions and meandering streams on the undulating terrain have created many lakes and wetland complexes. Isolated low, rounded mountains and ridges of erosion‐resistant rock rise above the general level of the Plateau to over 2000 metres elevation.

The Brittany Triangle is bounded by deeply incised, steep‐sided valleys that developed as the Chilko River and the Taseko River down cut through the Plateau during the post‐glacial melt period. The rivers currently occupy channels that are 100‐200 metres lower than the Plateau surface. The Elkin Creek‐Elkin Lake‐Vedan Lake system occupies another deeply incised valley, which was likely down cut during the post‐glacial melt but which no longer contains a major river system. Steep scarp slopes along the deeply incised rivers and creek valleys are unstable and susceptible to mass wasting and slope failures14

3.3. Socio‐economic Context15

The total population of the XGCA is approximately 500 people; 375 are Xeni Gwet’in and 125 are non‐indigenous. The area does not contain any formally incorporated communities but does contain a number of informal hamlets, such as north Chilko, Tsuniah, Taseko and Nemiah Valley. The people who comprise these communities are to a large extent self‐ reliant and have a long history of cooperation with each other to sustain their way of life.

13 Hammond and others (2004). 14 Hammond and others (2004). 15 This section is based on Ecolibrio (2009, 7‐10) and Hammond and others, (2004, pp.44‐46).

The XGCA is a remote, wilderness area, where the rural inhabitants live very disbursed. The highest concentration of the people in the XGCA is in the Nemiah Valley, which is located 196.8 kilometres from the nearest city, Williams Lake, BC about a 3 hour drive southwest. The Xeni Gwet’in First Nation Government office is located there and maintains isolation status, which means they provide their own public works services such as electricity, heating, community water supply and communication systems. There is a post office, a gas bar/convenience store, visitor information services centre, a laundromat/internet facility, Charlene William’s Daycare and immersion program, Naghtaneqed Elementary/Junior Secondary School, a health clinic and rodeo grounds.

The Xeni Gwet’in culture remains closely linked to the land. During the summer months the Xeni Gwet’in use the lakes and rivers throughout the XGCA to catch and dry fish. In addition, many still rely upon wild meat, including moose and deer. Moreover, according to two separate Tourism Strategies developed for the community, the primary economic activities for the Xeni Gwet’in today are ranching and involvement in tourism through local non‐ native wilderness tourism operators.

4. Climate Change in the Xeni Caretaker Area: Past Trends and Future Projections

This section provides an overview of the climate in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin region, and wherever possible the specific climate for the XGCA. The section first outlines the general climate in the study area, as determined by physiographic features (4.1). Sub‐section 4.2 then examines historical climate trends, which combines an assessment of scientific baseline data for the 1961‐1990 period (4.2.1), which are complemented by community anecd otes gathered through a key informant survey (4.2.2) follows with a projection of possible future climates.

4.1. General Climate

As described by Sten and Coupe (1997) and Hammond and others (2004), the climate of the study area is largely determined by the physiographic16 features of the region. Physiography refers to the physical geography of the land, including the terrain type, elevation, slope position, slope length, slope gradient (steepness), and orientation with respect to solar radiation (aspect).17 One key relationship is the effect of these factors on principle air flow patterns. The latter include warm moist Pacific air from the west, and cold dry Arctic air from the north. Because the study area is located on the leeward side of the Coast Mountain Range, the climate is more strongly influenced by Arctic air. The moist Pacific air has a limited effect on the area. The following climate summary is from Hammond and others (2004):18

• The Chilcotin Plateau portion of the study area has a typical continental climate characterized by cold winters and cool summers. The relatively high elevation of the

16 Slope length, slope gradient, and position along the slope also influence soil stability and ecological sensitivity to disturbance (source: Hammond and others (2009), p.13). 17 Sten and Coupe (1997). 18 See Hammond and others (2004), p. 19.

Plateau (between 1000 and 1500 metres) contributes to the cold climate. As a result, the growing season is short, and frost can occur at any time of the year at all elevations. The Plateau is also strongly affected by the Coast Mountains rainshadow, which results in very dry conditions, including summer moisture deficits – a significant factor effecting soil and plant productivity. The season of moisture deficit can be from May to September, which includes most of the growing season. The dry conditions also result in frequent wildfires across the landscape of the Plateau. • The Chilcotin Ranges part of the study area also has a dry, continental climate in the rainshadow of the Coast Mountains, but receives more precipitation than the Chilcotin Plateau landscape due to moist, coastal air pushing through the lower mountain passes. Summer moisture deficits are lower and the season of deficit is shorter than in the Chilcotin Plateau. However, the colder temperatures in this area significantly limit plant growth, with similar overall effects as the moisture deficits on the Plateau.

The strong climatic gradient that occurs from the moist coastal mountains to the dry Chilcotin Plateau results in a diversity of ecosystems, and plant and animal life. The study area includes some of the coldest and driest forested landscapes in the province.

4.2. Biogeoclimatic (BEC) Zones

Steen and Coupe (1997) describe the cold, dry climate of the XGCA in their discussion of biogeoclimatic subzones in the Cariboo Forest Region. The biogeoclimatic classification system groups forests in British Columbia into areas of broadly uniform climate, geology, and biology. The following comments are drawn from the work of Steen and Coupe, as extracted by Hammond and others (2004), and highlight the exceptionally harsh climate of the study a rea (Figure 3):

• The Very Dry Very Cold Engelmann Spruce Subalpine Fir subzone (ESSFxv) has a very cold, very dry climate. Although no climatic data is available, the vegetation indicates that the ESSFxv is probably the driest area of the ESSF zone in British Columbia. Due to relatively low humidity and clear skies, overnight radiation cooling is intense, and frosts occur very frequently during the growing season. • The Very Dry Very Cold Montane Spruce subzone (MSxv) is the coldest and driest Montane Spruce subzone in British Columbia, and is one of the least productive biogeoclimatic units for tree growth. Winters are cold and summers are cool with frequent growing‐season frost.

Figure 3: XGCA BEC Zones

• In general, the SubBoreal PineSpruce zone (SBPS) has cold, dry winters and cool, dry summers. Substantial moisture deficits are normal during the middle and latter parts of the growing season. The low precipitation, dry air, and clear skies in the Coast Mountains rainshadow result in significant night‐time radiation cooling and low overnight temperatures. Frost can occur at any time of the year, especially in low‐ lying areas. The SBPS zone is one of the least productive areas for tree growth in the region, outside of the Bunch Grass and Arctic Tundra zones which are generally considered “non‐forested.” • The Very Dry Cold SubBoreal PineSpruce subzone (SBPSxc) occurs in the southern and western parts of the SBPS zone in the study area. This subzone is strongly affected by the Coast Mountains rainshadow, and the SBPSxc has the lowest annual precipitation of the SBPS subzones. Vegetation production and soil development are severely limited by the cold, very dry climate. • The Dry Cool Interior Douglasfir subzone – Chilcotin variant (IDFdk4) is the coldest biogeoclimatic unit of the IDF zone in British Columbia and is climatically transitional from the generally warmer portions of the IDF zone to the cold, dry SBPS zone.

Areas that are colder or drier than the pine and spruce forests of the Chilcotin Plateau are generally not forested. Steen and Coupe (1997) comment that the total annual precipitation near Tatla Lake at the western part of the Plateau is only 338 mm. For comparison, any region that receives less than 250 mm of precipitation annually is generally defined as a desert. Moist forested areas in the Cariboo region, such as the Interior Cedar‐Hemlock Zone to the east, receive 700 to 800 mm of precipitation annually while some of the wetter areas of the Coast Mountains to the west receive in excess of 2500 mm of precipitation per year

4.3. Historical Climate Trends

Definition of scientific baseline based on 19611990 Station Climatology Data19

Long‐term climate trends show that considerable warming has taken place in the Cariboo‐ Chilcotin and surrounding areas over the last century. A recent report from the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium20 shows that during this time period, the mean annual temperature has increased about 1°Celsius in the region. Even though data show a clear warming trend, there are large year‐to‐year variations in temperature, with ENSO climatic cycles having had a strong impact on temperature. Historical changes in precipitation are less clear and consistent than for temperature. What is certain, however, is that historical changes in temperature have already had real implications for important hydrological variables, including snow accumulation and timing of snow melt. In addition, divergences in temperature and precipitation from average conditions due to natural cycles and climate change have affected ecosystems and resource management over the past century in this region.

The following provides a baseline for climate information by using data for the 1961‐1990 period. Note that the 1961‐1990 climate period is used as a baseline against which the climate change projections shown in section 4.4 are compared. Tables 2 and 3 show baseline temperature and precipitation data for the Tatlayoko Lake, which is the weather

19 The information in this section is extracted from Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) 2008. 20 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), 2008, p.30.

15 station closest to the Study Area with longer‐term historical climate data. While this station alone cannot adequately represent the diversity of the varied climate conditions found within the Study Area, it does provide a reference point to examine the mean and variability of seasonal climate during the baseline period. This is important as both the mean and variability of seasonal temperatures affect many ecological and hydrological processes.

Table 2 shows that the mean annual and maximum winter temperatures are less than 0°C for Tatlayoko Lake. The figures also reveal that the variability (standard deviation) of minimum, maximum and mean temperatures is much higher in winter than in summer. Finally, the table highlights that minimum temperatures in winter are more variable than maximum temperatures while the opposite is true in summer.

Table 2: 19611990 Baseline temperature data for Tatlayoko Lake Weather Station Annual Winter Summer

Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Min Mean Max Temp Temp Temp Temp Temp Temp Temp Temp Temp (oC) (oC) (oC) (oC) (oC) (oC) (oC) (oC) (oC)

Tatlayoko Mean ‐3.0 3.9 10.8 ‐11.1 ‐5.8 ‐0.4 0.6 0.8 1.4 Lake St 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.9 1.7 1.5 7.9 14.6 21.2 1088010 dev Source: PCIC 2008 Note – The station elevation is 870m

While temperature is a vital climate determinant, so is precipitation. In addition to the total precipitation, the proportion that falls as snow, the timing of snow melt and the variation in snow depth between years all have important ecological and hydrological implications and are likely to be affected by climate change. During the 1961‐1990 baseline period, the proportion of total precipitation from snowfall was 27% at Tatlayoko Lake. As indicated by the coefficients of variation (Cf var), snowfall varies more from year to year relative to the mean than annual precipitation. Overall, precipitation is relatively low compared to other areas in BC.

Table 3: 19611990 baseline precipitation and snow depth for Tatlayoko Lake Weather Station

Annual

Precipitation Rainfall (mm) Snowfall (mm) (mm)

Tatlayoko Mean 438.9 317.0 121.9 Lake St Dev 97.6 99.3 49.1

Cf var 0.2 0.3 0.4

Source: PCIC 2008 Note: St. Dev = standard deviation; Cf Var = coefficient of variation

Xeni Gwet’in anecdotal information about past and present seasonal climate

To complement the scientific climate data, primary data and qualitative information was acquired through key informant surveys, which sought to capture community observations on past and current climatic changes. Twenty‐seven individuals were interviewed by four community members. The individuals surveyed included an equal amount of men and women but a high proportion of elders in order to gain a better historical perspective.

Table 4 sums up the main responses from the Xeni community members, in response to a question on how the seasons have changed climate‐wise between now and their childhood. Since the majority of the interviewees have lived between 40‐60 years in the study area, their responses provided a rich amount of information.

Table 4: Seasonal climate observations – past and present Summer Weather About temperature: • Summers used to be hot – but now they are even hotter, often 100 degrees and above. • Summers are longer now than they used to be. • Summers also used to have a mix of hot and cooler weather, but now they are mostly hot days. About precipitation: • Now the summers are drier, as there is much less rain than in the past. • As a result, there are more droughts in the area now than before. • Hail and lightning storms are not as common as they were. Noticeable signs of weather changes: • In the past it would be green everywhere and there would be lots of water in the lakes during the summers. • Now nothing seems to grow and there is a lot less hay than there used to be. Observations – Fall Weather About temperature: • The fall weather is warmer than it used to be. About precipitation: • There used to be a lot of rain and thunder during the fall, especially during the hay season, but now there is less. • The fall season has gotten shorter, as snow arrives earlier than it used to. • Falls used to be very windy, but now there is less wind – only rain and warm air. Noticeable signs of weather changes: • Before deer were fat in the fall after summer grazing, but now the deer are skinny, as there is not enough grass for their summer grazing. Winter Weather About temperature: • Winters used to be a lot colder than they are now, as it was normal to have temperatures of ‐40 degrees for long periods of time. About precipitation:

• Overall: Winter weather has gotten very unpredictable – it now seems that it can rain or snow any time. • There used to be a lot more snow during winters than there is now. • The winter season has gotten shorter. • There used to be a lot more wind chills than there are now. Noticeable signs of weather changes: • While there used to be thick ice on most water bodies, now there is a lot less ice. For example, Chilko Lake no longer freezes over during the winters Spring Weather About temperature: • Spring used to arrive earlier, but now the season has gotten shorter, but colder About precipitation: • While it used to still snow in the Spring, now snow does not melt until June or July and it is cold until July • Now Springs have gotten more windy and there are lots of rain

4.4. Climate Projections

Temperature

Figure 4 shows a general warming trend for mean annual temperature (MAT) throughout the following periods: (a) 1961 – 1990, (b) A1F1 2020’s, and (c) A1F1 2050’s. By mean annual temperature we refer to the average of hot and cold extremes of temperature taken every day throughout the course of a year. In recent history (1961 – 1990), if we were to average out the temperatures for the whole area, MAT would have been 0.07 °C. The A1F1 scenario pred icts a warming of 1.11 °C and 2.61°C for the 2020’s and 2050’s, respectively. That means that i n only ten years (between now and 2020), the average temperature will

Figure 4: Mean annual temperature for the Chilko River watershed throughout following periods: a) 19611990, b) 2020’s A1F1 scenario, and c) 2050’s A1F1 scenario.

Source: Theo Mlynowski, UNBC increase by 0.4 degrees Celsius and with yet another 2.54 degrees Celsius in another 40 years. Figure 4b and 1c illustrates that the colder temperatures will be experienced in the mountains, whereas warmer temperatures will occur in the lower areas.

To put this figure in perspective, worldwide, a 2 degree increase is expected to increase sea level rise 0.5 to 2 metres by the year 2100 from the melting of ice caps in west Antarctica and Greenland. As a result, coastal areas where hundreds of millions of people currently live will get flooded. The B2 scenario predicts a more moderate warming of 1.02 °C and 1.72 °C for the 2020’s and 2050 ’s, respectively.

It is difficult to relate to the average weather that takes place across the whole XGCA. To provide a perspective of how varied the MAT will be even in a relatively small area like the XGCA when compared to the whole Cariboo‐Chilcotin Area, the study prepared a graph that compares the temperature of the XGCA to the temperatures expected at the Xeni Gwet’in Government office in the Nemiah Valley. Figure 5 shows that for each of the time frames, the Xeni Gwet’in Government office is about 1 degree warmer than the average throughout the XGCA. This is a result stemming from the fact that the office is in the valley. For both A1F1 and B2 scenarios, temperatures increases will be relatively consistent over the landscape.

Figure 5: Comparison of Mean Annual Temperature (MAT).

Source: Theo Mlynowski, UNBC

Precipitation

Similar to temperature, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) – which concerns both rain and snow – is the average of wet and dry extremes measured every day throughout the course of a year. Figure 6 shows a general increase of MAP throughout the following periods: (a) 1961 – 1990, (b) A1F1 2020’s, and (c) A1F1 2050’s.

At present, the MAP for the period 1961‐1990 for the XGCA is 901‐mm. Figure 5 illustrates that the bulk of the precipitation happens in the mountains, whereas the low lying areas of the territory are a bit dryer. Map 6b and 6c show that the future A1F1 scenario predicts an increase in annual precipitation of 44‐mm and 104‐mm for the 2020’s and 2050’s, respectively. In comparison, the B2 scenario (not shown in the Figure) predicts a slightly drier future with an increase in precipitation of 21‐mm and 36‐mm for the 2020’s and 2050’s, respectively. A large portion of the increase in precipitation will take place in the mountains, as illustrated by the dark blue patterns.

From the effects of a warmer climate, the percent of precipitation in the form of snow is expected to decrease. Throughout the period 1961 – 1990, roughly 60 % of precipitation was snow. The A1F1 scenario predicts a decrease to 57% by the 2020’s, and 52% by the 2050’s. Likewise, the B2 scenario predicts a decrease to 58% by the 2020’s and 56% by the 2050’s.

Figure 6: Mean annual precipitation for the Chilko River watershed throughout the following 19611990. Change in mean annual precipitation (in reference to the 1961 – 1990 values) is shown for b) 2020’s A1F1 scenario, and c) 2050’s A1F1 scenario.

Source: Theo Mlynowski, UNBC

As with temperature above, the study prepared a graph that compares the precipitation level of the Chilko Watershed to the one expected at the Xeni Gwet’in Government office.

Figure 7 shows that for each of the time frames, the Xeni Gwet’in Government office gets about 350 m less rain than the average across the Chilko Watershed.

Figure 7: Comparison of Mean Annual Precipitation (MAT).

Impact on seasons from changes in temperature and precipitation

A fundamental question to ask is how the above changes in temperature and precipitation will change throughout the seasons. According to the projections, over the next 40 years, the largest temperature increase will be in the spring, followed by winter. Summer and fall will experience a slightly lesser temperature increase. In Table 5, the change in temperature between the normal period (the current situation) and the IPCC scenarios is shown by the trend which is marked by W or C (Warmer or Colder), and + or – (more than average or less‐than‐average).

Table 5: The mean temperature for each IPCC Scenario shown by season. Mean Temperature

Winter Spring Summer Autumn

Scenario ◦C Tren d ◦C Tren d ◦C Tren d ◦C Tren d

Normal 1961 1990 ‐9.12 ‐ ‐0.37 ‐ 9.07 ‐ 0.72 ‐

A1F1 2020's ‐8.01 W+ 0.99 W+ 10.09 W‐ 1.64 W‐

A1F1 2050's ‐6.51 W‐ 2.86 W+ 11.46 W‐ 2.92 W‐

B2 2020's ‐8.08 W+ 0.86 W+ 10.08 W‐ 1.53 W‐

B2 2050's ‐7.39 W+ 1.70 W+ 10.77 W‐ 2.10 W‐

Source: Theo Mlynowski, UNBC

The pattern of future precipitation will be fairly different. Most precipitation will occur in the winter and fall, whereas the spring will undergo very little change and summers will become even drier than at present for both the 2020’s and 2050’s. Table 6 shows the change in precipitation between the normal period (current situation) and the future IPCC scenarios. The change marked by W or D (Wetter or Drier), and + or – (more than average or less‐than‐average).

Table 6: The mean precipitation for each IPCC Scenario shown by season. Mean Precipitation

Winter Spring Summer Autumn

Tren Scenario ◦C Tren d ◦C Tren d ◦C Tren d ◦C d

Normal 1961 1990 313.58 ‐ 153.76 ‐ 151.29 ‐ 282.37 ‐

A1F1 2020's 343.43 W+ 153.98 W‐ 146.46 D‐ 300.91 W+

A1F1 2050's 384.57 W+ 154.07 W‐ 139.75 D‐ 326.53 W+

B2 2020's 336.57 W+ 154.95 W‐ 145.35 D‐ 285.07 W‐

B2 2050's 352.85 W+ 155.25 W‐ 141.24 D‐ 287.98 W‐

Source: Theo Mlynowski, UNBC

It should be noted that the amount of snow the XGCA will receive will also very likely change. Currently about 60 percent of the precipitation is in the form of snow. By 2020, this amount will decrease to about 57 percent, and further decrease to only 52 percent by 2050.

In summary, over the course of the next 40 years, the XGCA can expect to see an average increase of 2.5 degrees Celsius and an increase of 104 mm of precipitation. This increase in temperature will be relatively uniform across the XGCA, but precipitation will mostly increase at higher elevations. Most of this precipitation is snow, but will decrease to nearly 50 percent by 2050. Seasonally, most of the temperature increase will occur in the winter and spring, whereas the fall and winter will become wetter and the summer will become drier. Finally, due to the general effect of mountains on climate, the findings confirm that the higher the location, the colder and wetter the future climate will be. Likewise, the lower the location, the warmer and dryer it will become.

5. Current and Projected Biophysical Impacts

5.1. Water Resources

This section provides a summary of the larger background report on Climate Impacts on XGCA Water Resources prepared by Ecolibrio (see Annex 1). This section provides an assessment of the impacts of climate change and variability on water resources in the Xeni

Gwet’in Territory. It should be noted that this section is based on a literature review that summarizes previous studies from knowledgeable individuals and institutions familiar with the climate change impacts on water resources and/or the XGCA. More specifically, this section is built on previous work carried out and reflected in the following four reports/articles: (i) A recent report by the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) (revised 2009); (ii) an older report by Rood and Hamilton (1995); (iii) a report by Hammond and others (2004); and (vi) groundwater research carried out by Diana M. Allen and others, as documented in D. Allen (2009).21 Other sources are listed, whenever they have been used to complement the main findings of these four reports.

Projected Climate Changes and Their Impacts on Water Resources 22

Projections of future climate change are still an uncertain science, due to limitations in existing models and insufficient, longer‐term data set. There is no doubt, however, that continuous climate change will impact the water resources within the XGCA, as it already is and will continue to impact the entire hydrological system in the Study Area. In particular, climate change will influence temperature as well as the timing, amount and form of precipitation. As a result, there will be shifts in streamflows and seasonal transitions, earlier spring runoffs, and increasing river temperatures.23 Evaporation and soil moisture will be affected as well (see box 1). During the cold months of the year, temperature influences the balance between cryospheric24 regimes (which are long‐term storage) and rainfall (which results in a short‐term response in streamflow) even before considering climate change. When adding climate change, projected changes in temperature will be especially critical for the water resources in the XGCA, given that temperature controls the storage of snowfall in the wet/cold season for subsequent use in the dry/warm season.

Box 1: Climate Change’s Impact on Soil Moisture and Surface Evaporation

Soil moisture acts as a water reserve for vegetation and agriculture. It integrates inputs from rain, snowmelt, and losses due to evaporation, interception, surface runoff, and drainage (base flow). Surface evaporation is a critical hydrological feedback from the earth’s surface into the atmosphere that has, itself, been modified by global climate change. Evaporation depends in part on conditions of soil moisture, solar radiation, and ground cover. Each process influences soil moisture with a different temporal signature and affects the timing of streamflow parameters. Finally, changes in soil moisture determine the fraction of precipitation and snowmelt that is released to streams as runoff. Some measurements have been made in BC, but projections for the 2050s require a comprehensive hydrologic model that would determine impacts on agriculture and forestry, and feedbacks within the hydrologic system. Current projections of changes in soil moisture have been made only for the Columbia Basin.

Source: PCIC (2007/revised 2009, p.68)

Projected changes in annual precipitation are small and somewhat uncertain. However, these projected changes become fractionally large, when they concern climatologically dry regions, such as a significant part of the Chilcotin Plateau, which make up a large part of the

21 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC) (2007/revised 2009). 22 This section primarily draws from PCIC (2007/revised 2009). 23 Walker, I.J. and Sydneysmith, R. (2008). 24 The cryosphere describes the portions of the Earth where water is in solid form, such as sea ice, lake ice, river ice, snow cover, glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets, and frozen ground (which includes permafrost) (Source: Wikipedia).

XGCA. The importance of this change does not so much refer to changes in the amount of rainfall, but more to a change in the ratio between rainfall and snow. In other words, the transition from snow to rain during the colder months (as they will become warmer) may cause complex changes in cryospheric regimes (glaciers, snowpack, lake ice) that may lead to subsequent changes in operation of reservoirs and in the seasonal shifts in timing of streamflow.

The rest of this section provides a summary of the results of current research to date concerning how climate impacts on snowpack, glaciers, streamflows and groundwater will increasingly affect the pristine water resources of the XGCA. This section highlights how the hydrology, and hence the water resources in the XGCA, are strongly influenced by precipitation and temperature. For instance, the amount of precipitation falling as snow versus rain, the amount of evapo‐transpiration, the sustainability of glacial inputs to rivers and the timing of runoff are all potential impacts of climate change.25

Snowpack26

Snowpack is a critical seasonal water resource that is renewed each year at high elevations. It retains freshwater during the cold winter months, after which it supplies streamflow to soils, lakes and reservoirs during the warmer summer low‐flow periods. Snowpack is, however, utilized during most of the year after transformation in reservoirs, streamflow and groundwater.

Snowpack projections in BC are still in their infancy, as snowpack is a difficult variable to measure. Given that the projected changes to snowpack rely on both temperature and precipitation, a great deal of uncertainty is associated with estimates. At present, a single estimate has been produced by one RCM model. The results, however, are not sufficient to produce a confident statement about future changes to snowpack in BC. The results do, however, demonstrate that a combination of scientific approaches is needed to provide reliable future estimates of changes to snowpack in BC.

While the findings are still tentative, the projections of spring snowpack for BC show a decline by 2050s of 200kg/m2. Significantly, the projected snowpack decline is more pronounced in the Coastal Mountain ranges with 500kg/m2. This is important as while this area is more waterrich than the Chilcotin Plateau as mentioned above, the decrease will impact the water resources in the vicinity of where the Xeni Gwet’in reside. In other words, the decrease in snowpack will impact the water resources that supply the daily water use of the Xeni people.

The projected decreases were primarily caused by the change in snow‐to‐rain ratios occurring through December, which delayed snowfall into the later winter months and reduced annual snow water equivalent.27

25 Dawson, R., A.T. Werner, and T.Q. Murdock, (2008). 26 This section is primarily prepared from information provided in PCIC (2007/revised 2009). 27 Sushama et al (2006).

Glaciers28

Like snowmelt, glaciers are also an important contributor to water resources. Yet, contrary to snowmelt, their influence extends from seasons to decades. During the late summer, when rivers typically experience low flows and ecological requirements are high, glacier runoff may be a large faction of the streamflow.

According to the IPCC, global glacier loss will continue throughout the 21st century because increased melt rates will exceed supplements from increased snowfall.29 More specifically, based on the IPCC IS92a (or “business‐as‐usual”) scenario, glacier surface area globally is expected to decrease by 38 % and 34 % by 2025 and 2050, respectively.30 Given the data limitations, the behavior of glaciers in the XGCA watersheds is hard to predict with any certainty. Adding to the lack of data explained above, another key challenge is that due to the presence of more than 10,000 glaciers in Western Canada, projected changes cannot be made with fully dynamic glaciological models for all glaciers, although these models may serve well for projecting changes at individual glaciers. What is clear, though, most of BC’s glaciers are losing mass and many will disappear in the next century.31 This will undoubtedly influence river discharges and temperature in a negative way in the XGCA.

A strong example is provided in Figure 8, where projections for Bridge glacier highlight substantial reductions of its mass area by up to 20 percent by the 2050s even without further warming of the current climate. The figure also shows a subsequent marked reduction (37%) in the mean August (summer) stream flow from approximately 2005 to 2145, even when based on a continuation of the present climate. When the present climate was substituted with projected warmer temperatures in the applied models, the glacial trends got even stronger. These projected changes will be the result of the projected increases in air temperature and prevalence of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow.32

It should be noted that the Bridge glacier is located in the southern BC, so it is not of direct relevance to the water bodies of the XGCA. This projection is still alarming, though, as the Bridge glacier covers the largest fraction of watershed area in BC. In addition, these results suggest that for most of BC the phase of increased streamflow that generally follows climate warming has passed and continued reduction in glacier area will lead to decreased streamflow. In other words, the future will see less water in the water bodies.

28 This section is based solely on PCIC (2007revised 2009), unless other source is stated. 29 IPCC Technical Summary for the Fourth Assessment Report 30 Bush, A., and Pollock, T. (2009); Personal Communication (Nov. 2009). 31 Walker, I.J. and Sydneysmith, R. (2008). 32 Stahl, K., Moore, R.D., Shea, J.M., Hutchinson, D. and Cannon, A., (2007 in press).

Figure 8: The Bridge glacier Projected changes in glacier area and mean August streamflow for the Bridge glacier in southern BC (20002150).

Source: Modified from Stahl et al., in review – as seen in PCIC 2009

Streamflow

At present, a comprehensive study of projected BC streamflow is not available, in spite of its importance for water resources. However, several independent studies have been made for major basins and individual watersheds, including two for the Fraser River (Table 7). These studies confirm concerns that the influence of future regional projections of warmer temperatures, uncertain precipitation and a reduction in snowpack and glaciers will adversely affect both the timing and the volume of projected stream flow.33

33 Whitfield et al.(2002b).; Merritt, W.S. et al., (2006); and Loukas, A., et al. (2004)

Table 7: Research studies ongoing in BC on streamflow. Region Source Study Site Hydrologic GCM Downscaling Hydrology Changes to Model Scenario Technique Scenarios streamflow Fraser Morrison Fraser UBC CGCMA Statistical Present Modest average River et al. River Watershed climate climate: flow increase in 200234 Basin Model Hadley inversion (1961‐ the 2080s with a (217,000 Climate 1990) decrease in the km2) Model Future average peak (HadCM2) climate: flow. 2020 (2010‐ General shift to 2039); earlier peak in 2050s the hydrograph (2040‐ (approx. 24 2069); days) 2080s (2070‐ 2099) Fraser Sushama Fraser Canadian CGCM2‐ CRCM Present A significant River et al. River basin Regional A2 (dynamical climate: decrease in SWE 200635 above Port Climate standard, downscaling) (1961‐ as less Mann Model CGCM2 – 1990) precipitation (232,000 (CRCM) A2 falls as snow. km2) updated, Future Runoff is higher and climate: during late‐fall CGCM2‐ (2041‐ and early‐winter. IS92 2070) Spring peaks are standard attenuated and occur earlier.

Increased variability in the number of days with low‐flows. Increased low flows in fall. Source: Adapted from Merritt et al. (2006)

The recent PCIC hydrology report from 2009 outlines a host of challenges and complexities related to modeling different runoff regimes, one being the multiple sources of streamflow that have to be accounted for (i.e. glacier‐melt and groundwater). Yet, the studies highlight that projected changes to annual and seasonal streamflow volumes and timing are similar across models and approaches.36 The following summary is provided by the PCIC report (p.106‐108):

• “All models and approaches that deal with nival (i.e. snowfed) systems predict an earlier onset of the spring freshet or peak flows compared to the base case.

34 Morrison, J., Quick, M.C. and Foreman, M.G.G., (2002). 35 Sushama, L., Laprise, R., Caya, D., Frigon, A. and Slivitzky, M.,( 2006). 36 Merritt, W.S. et al., (2006).

• Projected changes to the magnitude of flow include increased winter and decreased summer and fall streamflow, along with a diminished spring freshet volume.37 • Warmer winter temperatures will cause more precipitation to fall as rain rather than snow, resulting in increased winter runoff and decreased snowpack accumulation and a tendency towards more pluvial(i.e. rainfed) streamflow regimes.38 • Reductions to spring peaks will occur primarily from reductions in snowpack and from warmer temperatures causing an earlier spring melt.”

The changes to the flood and low‐flow volume producing mechanisms are different for pluvial (rainfed) and nival (snowfed) systems.39 Watersheds fed by rain are expected to have increased flood magnitude and frequency.40 This response is primarily driven by warmer, wetter winters, where instead of snow, precipitation falls as rain.41

A decrease in the number and magnitude of flood events is predicted for many snow‐fed watersheds, particularly those in the semi‐arid interior regions.42 This decrease is driven by the spring melt taking place earlier. Drier summers in combination with year‐round warming are projected to increase water shortages in both pluvial and nival rivers because of changes in rainfall timing and amounts, projected smaller snowpack and increased evaporation.43 Also an increase in the time elapsed between snowmelt and fall rain is projected, which will extend the dry‐season low‐flow period. Interestingly, rain‐fed regimes have been shown to have noticeably longer dry seasons as a result of changes in temperature and precipitation inputs. Because of this rain‐fed systems are considered sensitive to climate change.44

In terms of projected impacts in the XGCA, based on the above trends, from the projected warmer temperatures and increase in precipitation for the Study Area, the XGCA rivers will probably see an increase in winter flows and decreased later summer flows.45 Glaciers play a major role in determining low‐flows for 48 percent of the monitored rivers in BC (see section above). The influence of groundwater and glacier melt on low‐flows requires further study.46

Groundwater47

Groundwater plays a critical role in maintaining streamflows during summer months, which sustain fish habitat, aquatic ecosystems, not to mention the animals and humans that depend on them. Yet, despite these important qualities of groundwater, very little research have been done to date on how climate change might affect groundwater resources in the future. Concerning BC, for the past decade a research program spearheaded by Simon Fraser University has focused on modeling recharge and groundwater‐streamflow

37 Hamlet, A.F. and Lettenmaier, D.P., (1999b). 38 Hamlet, A.F. and Lettenmaier, D.P., (1999b) and Whitfield, P.H., Reynolds, C.J. and Cannon, A.J., (2002b). 39 Loukas, A., Lampros, V. and Dalezios, N.R., (2002a). 40 Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. and Dalezios, N.R., (2004) and Whitfield, P.H., Reynolds, C.J. and Cannon, A.J., (2002b). 41 Parson, E.A. et al., (2001b). 42 Cohen, S. and Kulkarni, T., (20010. And Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. and Dalezios, N.R., (2002b). 43 Parson, E.A. et al., (2001a). 44 Whitfield, P.H. and Taylor, E., (1998). 45 Walker, I.J. and Sydneysmith, R. (2008). 46 Stahl, K. (2007). 47 Given the scarcity of available information and data, this section is primarily based on information in the recent article by Diana Allen in Innovation May/June 2009, Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater in BC.

29 interation under different scenarios of climate change and the overall understanding of climate‐groundwater‐surface water interactions in BC.48 To date, four case studies in BC have been completed to quantify potential impacts of future climate changes on groundwater recharge and groundwater levels.

However, none of the assessments carried out pertained to the XGCA or the Chilcotin Habitat Management Area. Given the scarcity of information related to the groundwater situation in the XGCA, the following are therefore general observations from these other assessments. While some of these findings may be very relevant for how climate change will impact the groundwater resources in the XGCA, they should still be considered with a high degree of uncertainty, as any given groundwater aquifer has unique physical properties (i.e. the geology), geometry (i.e. the control of broad flow patterns), and the nature of connection with surface water (i.e., can be a highly dynamic water source and sink for groundwater). The following are some of the main findings of these assessments:

• Of importance to the Xeni Gwet’in, groundwater systems in the interior regions of BC will be particularly sensitive to climate change owing to shifts in the timing and amount of precipitation, and the strong dependence of rates of evapotranspiration, snow accumulation and snowmelt on temperature. • In the spring, an increase in temperatures will kick off the growing season earlier, and lead to increased rates of evapotranspiration. • In the summer and early fall, higher temperatures will limit groundwater recharge even more than presently observed. • In the winter, loss of snowpack and timing of snowmelt in the spring can potentially have significant impacts on the amount and timing of spring runoff. As a result, these shifts will influence groundwater recharge both in the valley bottom and in the upland areas.

If groundwater levels are reduced ‐ brought about either by increased extraction (i.e. for agricultural or human consumption) or lower recharge ‐ the consequence could be a reduction in summer baseflow to stream corridors. Even if changes in recharge amounted to only a few millimeters per year, when summed across an entire aquifer, a significant about of stored groundwater could be lost, which, subsequently, would lead to a significant reduction in the contribution of groundwater to baseflow. Furthermore, a shift in peak stream flow will occur due to earlier snowmelt. The consequent longer baseflow period will demand a higher groundwater contribution to sustain the flow.

In glacierized catchments – such as some of the catchments within the XGCA ‐, it is likely that glacier‐fed rivers will experience a shift from a glacial regime with high flows in mid and late summer to a regime that responds to the summer dry period with streamflow recession, low flows and increased temperatures. In such areas, groundwater will become an increasingly important source of water for sustaining baseflow during the summer months. As a result, according to Allen (2009, “summer low flows in the streams may be exacerbated by the decreasing groundwater levels and diminished glacier cover, and streamflow may become inadequate to meet economic needs such as domestic consumption, irrigation, as well as ecological functions such as instream habitat for fish and other aquatic species [emphasis added].”

48 Allen, Diana M. (2009)

If the timing of river discharge shifts, it may lead to a strong impact on groundwater levels. This is especially the case in valleys that have major rivers flowing through them. For the Xeni Gwet’in, the rivers of such importance would include the Chilcotin, Chilko and Taseko Rivers. In addition, peak flow in many BC rivers is predicted to shift to an earlier date, combined with a prolonged and lower baseflow period. Such a shift in peak flow would force groundwater levels to shift by the same interval.

Another important factor is the projected higher incidence of extreme events. Generally, heavy rain events result in less groundwater recharge, because the ground is not able to absorb the increased precipitation fast enough. The result will be greater runoff, more flooding, etc., which it is difficult to quantify with accuracy in hydrologic models. Similarly, extended periods of drought would lead to dry soil conditions, which in some cases can result in less groundwater infiltration. So despite the fact that BC, as a whole, is projected to become wetter, some of this additional precipitation may fall as heavy rainfall and, consequently, the amount of groundwater recharge could decrease.

5.2. Forest and Vegetation

This section provides a summary of the larger Study Background Report on Climate Impacts on forest and vegetation prepared by Orman Consulting. For the full report, please see Annex 2. The methodology for the assessment carried out is provided in section 2.3 above. In brief, climate projections based on the worst case emissions (A1F1) scenario were used to describe possible effects on the forests of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory by 2050. The projected climate variable changes by 2020 and 2050 are presented along with climate normals (1960‐1999) by Biogeoclimatic (BEC) subzone. Although the model predicts changes to climate envelopes as classified by the BEC system, the changes do not represent changes to the forest ecosystem itself. Potential changes to the forest are inferred with the help of expert opinion and literature reviews49.

Forests of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory

The XGCA ecosystem, including its wildlife, is somewhat adapted to periods of climate extremes, whether very severe winters or summer drought periods. In the winter, strong winds called “Chinooks” (warm drying winds) periodically blows from the west, causing rapid warming and snow melting, as they also do in the foothills of the Rocky Mountains. Many plant and animal species have evolved and survived in areas like the XGCA because of their resiliency to extreme climate variations. Other species have not done so well, largely in part due to man‐induced habitat alternations or destruction, rather than climate extremes and so have either been extirpated or put on the threatened or endangered list, provincially and/or federally.

The forests of British Columbia are classified using the Biogeoclimatic Ecological Classification (BEC) System mentioned earlier. This classification system is a framework for understanding the important components of terrestrial ecological systems. These components include climate, site factors, and associated vegetation. The BEC system uses vegetation, soils, and topography to infer the regional climate of a geographic area. Areas of

49 This simplistic approach was taken due to the budget constraints of this project. Models are now being developed that will project effects of climate change on vegetation (Campbell et al. 2009).

relatively uniform climate are called biogeoclimatic units, where climate refers to the regional climate that influences ecosystems over an extended period of time. The BEC unit can be expressed as statistics derived from normals of precipitation and temperature.50 It was a lack of climate stations capable of documenting the complexity of British Columbia’s climate, as well as a need to have biologically relevant climate zonation for understanding climatic affects on vegetation and associated sites that drove the creation of the climate component of BEC. See Appendix 1 for a more detailed description of the BEC system.

General Projected Climate Changes

The climate of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory is projected to get warmer and drier and this is reflected in the changes to the BEC subzones. Note the shift zones from Figure 9 to Figure 10. To generate Figure 10, best matches (drier, warmer BEC subzones) were determined for each original BEC subzone based on the climate variables projected to 2050. Although the BEC subzones can closely represent the changes in the climate variables, precipitation and temperature, they do not represent how the forests might change by 2050. However, the changes to the BEC subzones described below can give some insight into what species and/or ecosystems may be vulnerable as the climate changes.

Based on the team assessment, eventually the climate of the majority of the area will be similar to what is now the Interior Douglas‐fir (IDF) zone, with some amounts of the Bunch Grass (BG) zone and Ponderosa Pine (PP) zone in the warmest areas. This generally agrees with a recent modeling project completed on the entire province by UBC (Figure 11). By 2050 the IDF (yellow), BG (red), and PP (orange) visibly expand in the Chilcotin area (middle of the bottom third of the map).

51 Figure 9. BEC zones in the study area Figure 10. Projected BEC subzones by 2050

50 Downloaded from http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/HRE/becweb/system/how/index.html). 51 % of hectares excluding Alpine Tundra zone

Figure 11. Biogeoclimatic changes by 205052

Projected Climate Changes and Impacts by BEC Zone

A description of each ecosystem is summarized from Steen and Coupe (1997) and Silva Forest Foundation (2004) by BEC zone. Much of the potential effect on the forest vegetation is summarized from the ‘Ecological Summary and Narratives’ appendix of the Kamloops Future Forest Strategy (2009). The Narrative was generated by local specialists and practitioners with experience in forestry, habitat and biodiversity, First Nations, watershed management, visual landscape management and fire interface management at a workshop. It should be read with following caveat in mind(page 33):

52 As predicted by the CGCM2 A2x model, which represents minimalistic emission reductions resulting in rapid global warming. http://www.geog.ubc.ca/courses/geog376/students/class07/bec_pred/

Box 2: The importance of curre nt and future pine beetle kill

The forest cover of the Xeni Gwet’in Territory is currently dominated by lodgepole pine, regardless of BEC unit. From a climatic point of view, the dynamics of lodgepole pine are intimately related to fire and mountain pine beetle.1 Recent warm, dry summers, and mild winters have elevated the pine beetle populations to epidemic levels all throughout British Columbia. The Ministry of Forests and Range estimate that 80 percent of the pine in the province’s central and southern Interior could be killed by 2013, which does not bode well for the pine in the XGCA (Figure 12). As trees are killed by mountain pine beetle, mortality can be extensive enough to become a very large contiguous fuel base.1 The large 2009 fires on the west side of Chilko Lake and in the Brittany Triangle are good examples.

Figure 12. Predicted cumulative percent of lodgepole pine killed by 2013.1

“We think that these narratives are entirely plausible given the information available today. We do expect them to be correct. However, we think they are less unbelievable than assuming that nothing will change. The key thing we are trying to achieve is to not blindly paint ourselves into a corner as our climate changes, with only a few difficult options. This strategy will not be the final word. These narratives and associated management direction should be updated as new information emerges.”53

53 Ecological Narratives ‐ Backgrounder, Kamloops Future Forest Strategy (2009) Page 1.

In sum, the combination of beetle kill and forest fires will be the most significant impact from climate change to be addressed in the XGCA. The Canadian Forest Service predicts that 80 percent of the pine will be infected with beetle kill by 2012 (see Box 2). As a result, not only will the forest fire hazard increase in terms of frequency, but more intense fires are projected as well (see Box 3). In addition, the main specific impacts on the forest and vegetation will likely be:

• Pine, subalpine fir will no longer be well suited to the XGCA environment • Aspen presence will likely decline, but will remain on moister slopes and draws • Douglas‐fir, and many Ponderosa Pine on dry sites, may be more successful, due to changes in frost conditions • There will be more grasslands on marginal sites • Invasive species, such as knapweed, will increase • While some culturally important plants will decrease, others might actually increase within the XGCA, such as the Soopolsllie and Choke Cherry, as areas get drier and warmer.

Interior Douglasfir (IDF) zone

The IDF zone is characterized by warm dry summers and cool dry winters. It comprises about 22% of the forested areas of the study area (Figure 2). Two IDF subzones occur in the study area ‐ the IDFdk4 (dry cool) and IDFdw (dry warm). The IDFdk4 occurs in the Nemiah, Elkin, Taseko River and Lower Chilko River Valleys. It also occurs as a wide crescent shape band from Cheolquoit Lake to Tatla Hill within the North Trapline area. The elevation range is from about 950 to 1200m. Climax stands on zonal (mesic) sites typically have multi‐aged Douglas‐fir canopy with abundant regeneration. Dominant seral species include lodgepole pine, trembling aspen willow ad rose. Cold air accumulation areas have lodgepole pine forests similar to those on zonal sites in the Sub Boreal Pine Spruce xc (very dry cold). Drier sites are dominated by Douglas‐fir, common and Rocky Mountain juniper, bluebunch wheatgrass, Rocky Mountain fescue and lichens, while moister sites have hybrid white spruce, black twinberry, palmate colt’s foot and common horsetail.

The IDFdw subzone occurs at low elevations along the Chilko and Tatlayoko Lakes. Due to the influence of coastal air masses, the IDFdw has a warmer moister climate relative to most other parts of the IDF zone in the Cariboo Chilcotin. Climax stands are dominated by multi‐aged Douglas‐ fir and pine grass, with some lodgepole pine and the occasional subalpine fir, while moist areas have hybrid spruce.

Climate impacts: Climate change will result in hotter and drier summers, warmer winters with less snow and more rain in the fall and winter in both the IDFdw and IDFdk4. Lower elevations and southern exposures will experience greater drought stress with associated reductions in tree vigor and increases in mortality. On northern and moister sites, there will be stands of Douglas‐fir with scattered openings from pine and possibly spruce mortality. Fire is a concern in the remaining lodgepole pine stands in the near term.

These subzones will become much less suited to growing lodgepole pine. Increased drought stress will lower vigour and increase susceptibility to western gall rust, terminal weevil, dwarf mistletoe and possibly bark beetles. This increased mortality along with warmer summers will create a high risk of large intense fires.54 Lodgepole pine established on cooler aspects will have a better chance of survival. Douglas‐fir, Ponderosa pine and spruce should be well adapted up to 2050; however the KFFS (2009) indicates that by 2080, most of the lodgepole pine regenerated in the early century

54 KFFS 2009.

Box 3: Forest Fire Hazard in the XGCA

Fire hazard is already a concern in the XGCA due to high proportions of beetle kill and high fuel loads in the XGCA forests. Climate change will only worsen this hazard. Hotter and drier summers, warmer winters with less snow will result in less moisture in the forest, especially in lower elevations with southern exposures. Forests in these areas will experience greater drought stress with associated reductions in tree vigor and increases in disease and mortality. This increase in mortality along with warmer summers will create a high risk of large intense fires. Figure 13 shows the projected fire behaviour in the XGCA forest. The dark red markings indicate areas of extreme fire hazard and a high probability of fire. Large tracts of forests in the Brittany and on the west side of Chilko Lake are identified as extreme fire hazard burned in 2009. More dry summers will likely see the remaining High to Extreme hazard areas burn in the near term.

Figure 13: Project Fire Behaviour in the XGCA

Source: Delong, 2010

will be either dead or will struggle under hotter drier conditions. This mortality and past wildfires may contribute to expanded grasslands. Ponderosa Pine could eventually be the only conifer adapted to drier sites and Douglas‐fir will be limited to moister areas and require shade for establishment.

SubBoreal Pine Spruce (SBPS) zone

The SBPS zone has cold dry winters and cool dry summers due to its location at moderately high elevations in the rain shadow of the Coast Mountains. The SBPSxc (very dry cold) subzone is the only subzone of the SBPS in the study area and it comprises also most half of the area (Figure 2). It occurs on the Chilcotin Plateau between about 1100 and 1500 m. The SBPSxc has the least annual precipitation of the SBPS subzones and vegetation and soil development has been severely limited by the cold very dry climate. The landscape is dominated by extensive lodgepole pine forests and abundant wetlands. On zonal (medium moisture) sites, the forest canopy is often a patchwork of even‐aged lodgepole pine stands which originated from various fires over time. Scattered aspen occur on zonal sites and hybrid white spruce occurs on moister sites. Wet meadows are common in poorly drained depressions. Mountain pine beetle has caused extensive mortality in the pine across this subzone.

Climate impacts: By 2050 the climate of the SBPSxc will likely be approaching the current climate of the IDFdw. The risk of wildfires will increase in the short term as more pine is killed by mountain pine beetle. As the climate warms, lodgepole pine will not be suited to this environment. As pine declines, it is likely that grassland will expand. Aspen will likely remain in moister areas and Douglas‐fir may expand into the area. Since there is more precipitation over all ‐ but warmer, drier summers, the wet meadows may contract and expand on a seasonal basis.

Montane Spruce (MS) zone

The MS zone occurs in the transition between the SBPS or the IDF and the Engelmann Spruce Subalpine fire (ESSF) zone. Lodgepole pine also dominates the MS landscape. There are two MS subzones in the study area‐ MSxv (very dry very cold) and the MSdc2 (dry cold). The MSxv occurs in the plateau portion of the study area between 1400 and 1700m. The MSxv is one of the least productive BEC units in the province for tree growth. Vegetation succession is very slow and pine stands greater than 200 years old with only a few spruce or subalpine fir trees in the canopy are common.

The MSdc2 occurs in the Chilko and Tatlayoko valleys and Stikelan and Cheshi Passes and also between the IDFdk4 and ESSF in the lower Nemiah Valley. It ranges from 1150‐ 1650m. The climate is moderated by the costal influences. Zonal stands are dominated by lodgepole pine with moderate amounts of subalpine fir, aspen, scattered spruce and occasionally Douglas‐fir. Drier sites have significant amounts of Douglas‐fir and moist sites have hybrid spruce.

Climate impacts: The ClimateBC model projected hotter and drier summers and warmer winters with slightly less snow in the MSxv subzone. The risk of large wildfires will likely increase due to warmer temperatures and the increased fuel load from dead lodgepole pine stands. Where it is found, Douglas‐fir and spruce released by pine mortality will increase in size and vigour over the near term, but will show signs of moisture stress on all but the wettest of sites. Subalpine fir may survive in the short term but will have a limited role as a future overstory species. By 2050 there

37 will likely be scattered Douglas‐fir with small patches of aspen scattered over a landscape mostly covered by pine in decline. Lodgepole pine established on the wetter, cooler aspects will have a higher chance of survival, but the climate will not be favourable to pine in the long run. There will be a trend to more open forests and more grasslands.

Engelmann Spruce Subalpine Fir (ESSF) Zone

The ESSF zone lies below the Alpine Tundra zone and above the MS or IDF zones. There are two ESSF subzones in the study area‐ ESSFxv1 (very dry very cold) and the ESSFxvp (very dry very cold parkland). The ESSFxv1 lies between 1650 and 2100m. It is dominated by lodgepole pine forests which regenerate following relatively frequent fires. Subalpine fir and Engelmann spruce are present in the understory however; few seral pine forests have been replaced by these long lived species. Whitebark pine is common at elevations above 1850m on drier, warm aspects.

The ESSFxvp is a parkland subzone characterized by patches of stunted trees. It is dominated by subalpine fir with spruce on cool exposures and Whitebark pine and lodgepole pine on warmer aspects.

Climate impacts: By 2050 the climate of this area will also be warmer and wetter overall, but summers will be drier. It is colder and wetter than the IDF, but warmer than the MS zones. It is likely that fire frequency will go up and all species may move up in elevation. Douglas‐fir may also move up slope from lower habitats as climate warms. The parkland areas will become more treed, however the speed at which this happens will be limited by soil development (Campbell et al. 2009). The slow maturing Whitebark pine will be threatened as it cannot adapt rapidly to changing conditions and will probably be out‐competed.55

Culturally Important Plants 56 57

As the authors of the Kamloops Future Forest Strategy (2009) describe, the dynamic nature of ecosystems makes predictions about future conditions challenging at best. However, some generalities were surmised:

• Long lived species may be able to survive changes. • Wet to moist site plants will see suitable habitat shrink, while some dryland species may be threatened by competition by invasive species. • However, species that are adapted to wet or dry conditions will likely survive where biophysical factors influence the amount of moisture available. • Drought adapted species may also have a wide range of ada ptation.

Vulnerability of culturally important plants of the Xeni Gwet’in will vary by species. There have been upwards of 50 species identified as important to most First Nations in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin.58 What follows is a small selection of those plants that were specifically identified as important by the survey of the Xeni Gwet’in elders.

Claytonia lanceolata (Indian potato) (Western Spring Beauty)

55 Cox 2000. 56 Ecology summarized from Parish et al. 1996. 57 Information also provided by Ray Coupe, Ecologist, Ministry of Forests and Range, Williams Lake. 58 Powell 2005.

• Ecology: Indian potato is widely scattered at mid to high elevations in open, moist, grassy slopes. It is often found in areas of late snow beds. Other than the Potato Range it is not common in Chilcotin. It is more common the Quesnel Highland and the Cariboo Mountains east of the Fraser River. It is also common in some Interior Douglas‐fir grassland areas near Kamloops (Lac du Bois and Niskonlith). • Effects of climate change: Indian potato seems capable of enduring some drought but also requires early spring moisture for early season growth and flowering. As snow pack declines and temperatures warm, growth may start earlier and it may migrate upward in elevation where there is suitable habitat.

Erythronium grandiflorum (beartooth) (yellow glacier lily) • Ecology: Beartooth is not common west of the Fraser River. It is more common and widespread in the Quesnel Highland and Cariboo Mountains in the ESSFwcw and WSSFwcp. It occurs in subalpine and alpine meadows and wet, open high sub‐alpine forests. It blooms soon after snow melt, on the edges of retreating snow. • Effects of climate change: As snow pack declines and temperatures warm, growth may start earlier and it may migrate upward in elevation where there is suitable habitat.

Amelanchier alnifolia (Saskatoon) • Ecology: Saskatoon is widespread and common dry to moist forests at low to m id elevations. It also occurs occasionally at high elevations on warm aspects. • Effects of climate change: Saskatoon may disappear from the very driest of sites but overall habitat will likely expand into the MS and SBPS.

Prunus virginiana (Chokecherry) • Ecology: Chokecherry is not common in the Chilcotin. It is found on dry exposed warm aspects and rocky outcrops in low to mid elevation open forests. Most common on steeper warm aspects, roadsides and some low elevation talus slopes. • Effects of climate change: As the climate warms and becomes drier, chokecherry will likely spread and be more common.

Rubus idaeus (raspberry) • Ecology: Raspberry is relatively common on moist disturbed sites in the Chilcotin, especially in Coast/Interior transition. It is scattered and oftn abundant fre o m ow to l subalpine areas in clearings and dis t urb e d areas. • Effects of climate change: May be vulnerable to warmer, drier climate, but easily cultivated.

Fragaria virginiana (strawberry) • Ecology: Strawberry is widespread and common at low to subalpine elevations in dry and moist forests, openings and disturbed areas. • Effects of climate change: Strawberry exists across a wide range of sites and is therefore less susceptible to climate change. It will likely expand and become more common at higher elevations.

Arctostaphylos uvauri (kinnikinnick) • Ecology: Kinnikinnick is widespread and common at low to alpine elevations on sandy and well drained exposed sites.

• Effects of climate change: Kinnikinnick is likely at low risk to climate change as it is adapted to droughty sites across BECs. However, it is sensitive to moderate and severe fires.

Sheperdia Canadensis (soapberry) • Ecology: Sheperdia is widespread in dry to moist openings and clearings • Effects of climate change: Sheperdia will likely expand into areas as they get drier.

Veratrum viride (Indian Hellebore) • Ecology: Hellebore is wide spread and most abundant subalpine elevations on wet seepage sites. • Effects of climate change: Hellebore is at risk as it has a preference for wet seepage sites with cold air drainage.

Ledum groenlandicum (Labrador tea) and Ledum glandulosum (Trapper tea) • Ecology: Most common in colder mid to high elevations in the Chilcotin. Often dominating bogs and cold wetland fringes. Absent in hot arid climates. • Effects of climate change: At risk as climate becomes warmer and drier. Persistence may depends on what BEC it is in, i.e. the colder (higher) and wetter the ecosystem is now the longer it will persist.

5.3. Wildlife & Wild Horses

This section provides a summary of the larger Study Background Report on wildlife and wild horses prepared by Wayne McCrory, RPBio. For the full report, please see Annex 3.

Past and present exogenous and climaterelated impacts on wildlife and wild horse habitats

Impact of climate change on wildlife is not a new phenomenon. Indeed, the effects of long‐term climate variations can be observed dating back to the last Ice Age on three of the indicator species that are currently found in the XGCA: (i) the mountain goat; (ii) the wild horse; and (iii) moose.

• Mountain Goat Until about 8,000 years ago, there were mountain goats on Vancouver Island. Yet, they went extinct at that time, apparently because of global warming (temperatures higher than today), which caused fragmentation and loss of the goats’ alpine habitat, which, in turn, was a result of the treeline expanding upward in elevation.

• Wild Horses ‐ The horse species, which evolved in North America (and even existed on Vancouver Island) also went extinct about 8,000 years ago, but for unknown reasons. It was later re‐introduced by the Spaniards to the Americas in the 1500s, and was brought northward by First Nations. As a result, it arrived in the XGCA before the Europeans did, about 200+ years ago.

• Moose The moose did not arrive in the Chilcotins until about 90 years ago as a result of a gradual, southward range expansion from refugia in the Yukon during the last Ice Age.

In more recent time (the past couple of decades), the wildlife and wild horse habitats within the XGCA have been negatively impacted by a range of factors, including both exogenous and climate‐ related ones. The most significant climate‐related factors have been massive pine beetle

40 infestations and two very large wildfires (2003 and 2009), whose enabling conditions were created by global warming. As mentioned earlier in section 5.2, even larger, hotter wildfires are projected for the future. Another threat is posed by uncontrolled wildfires that burn up the peat that underlies the hundreds of small and large meadows, which store considerable carbon that is released in large amounts when burned.

It is important to acknowledge, however, that there are very important exogenous factors, which have nothing to do with climate change, but which have also negatively impacted the wildlife and wild horse habitats to date. Government policies of wildfire suppression, for example, allowed excessive fuel loading, which contributed to the past wildfire situations. Other exogenous factors include tree encroachment, over‐grazing by livestock and lack of natural grassland wildfires, which have already caused some native grassland deterioration. In addition, roading and clearcutting in some outlying areas have increased drying conditions that would be expected to accelerate further drying conditions, changes in micro‐climate and drying of lakes and ponds that are fed by run‐off.

Projected climaterelated impacts on wildlife and wild horse habitats

Climate change factors will have an increasing effect not only on the biogeoclimatic zones of the XGCA but also subsequently on wildlife habitats and wildlife survival. According to climate projections in section 4.4, the XGCA may expect (i) Increased mean temperatures; (ii) increased drought conditions in the summer; and (iii) increased rainfall (instead of snow) in winter. These climatic changes are projected to cause (i) larger and hotter wildfires (which is also a result of fire suppression); (ii) increase the extent of grasslands in several low elevation bioclimatic subzones in XGCA; (iii) increase drought; and (iv) possibly cause the treeline to increase in elevation.

To assess how these projected climate changes will impact the wildlife and wild horses in the XGCA, three sets of biological indicator species were used:

1. A sma ll number of plant species and their habitat associations were chosen for their relative impor tance to wildlife. These indicator species included a. Whitebark Pine (Pinus albicaulis), b. Trembling Aspen (Populus tremuloides), c. Soopolallie, and d. Western Spring Beauty (“wild potato”).

2. Another set of indicator species included sensitive habitat ecotones (treeline and grasslands).

3. The final set of indicator species concerned wildlife, and besides the wild horse, included the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos), California bighorn sheep, mountain goat, moose, and mule deer. These mammal indicator species were chosen either because of their apparent vulnerability to global warming and or their importance to the Xeni Gwet’in First Nation. Finally, comments were also made on birdlife

The following is a summary of the assessment, of which further details can be found in Appendix X. This is a subjective assessment by the project team, hence these projections should be treated with care.

Assessment of future climate impact on plant indicators

• Whitebark Pine: Of the two tree indicator species of high value to wildlife and biodiversity, Whitebark Pine will likely suffer similar extensive die‐offs due to diseases caused by global warming as has been reported in many areas of the continental United States with concomitant negative impacts on the grizzly bear and the pine crow (Nucifraga Columbiana) that seasonally depend on pine nuts. However, wildfire could be a balancing factor in restoring/maintaining ecosystem health of this fire‐suppressed habitat.

• Trembling Aspen: Barring unforeseen factors, this species will most likely continue to thrive in XGCA, even with a predicted increase in drought and wildfires. If this holds true, it would continue to provide vital nesting and feeding habitat to a great variety of bird species. Moose would also benefit from an increased winter food supply. Large wildfires may temporarily decrease the amount of older trees as cavity‐nesting habitat for a host of birds, but may increase the forest health over time of this fast‐growing hardwood.

Assessment of future impact on wildlife indicators

• Moose: This is an important food for the Xeni Gwet’in. Due to lack of sweat glands moose may suffer during hotter periods of summer droughts when there are few ponds available to use for cooling off. Moose is primarily a browser of shrubs and may suffer some habitat loss as grasslands increase. Yet, it will also benefit from regeneration of vital shrub foods at higher elevations from an increase in wildfires. Rain on snow in the winter may create crusting conditions, reducing some winter survival.

• Mule deer: This is another important year‐round food for the Xeni Gwet’in. The mule deer is a very resilient species, which has adapted to many different biogeoclimatic zones in BC and North America, including near‐desert and grassland‐shrubland conditions. The project team does not expect it to suffer from global warming in XGCA over the next 50 years. More rainfall during winters may lead to crusting and icing, that combined with deep snow, may cause some localized declines of resident deer that over‐winter in XGCA instead of migrating to easier conditions.

• California Bighorn Sheep: The XGCA is well known for its bighorns and here this famous desert “thinhorn” subspecies reaches the northern limits of its distribution in North America, perhaps making it more vulnerable to climate changes. Total population estimates in XGCA vary between 130–450 sheep. It is uncertain at this point as to how much sheep are still used as a traditional meat source by the Xeni. The males are mainly hunted for trophies, even though this bighorn is blue‐listed provincially. Some of the herds have suffered declines, including disappearing from over‐hunting on Potato Mountain on the west side of Chilko Lake. There have been several successful re‐introductions in XGCA. This species would appear to have some vulnerability to global warming, especially as the herds in the XGCA appear to be of the ecotype that winters and summers in the mountains on high‐elevation, windswept, alpine ridges rather than at a variety of habitats at different elevations. Possible threats from global warming include increased icing‐over in winter of alpine meadows used for foraging and tree encroachment. Several controlled burns of high elevation habitats have already been done to improve winter ranges and this offers some hope to help this species adapt and survive global warming.

• Mountain goat: The XGCA has a population of about 400 goats and there have been several small re‐introductions. They have some food value for the Xeni but are also managed for some

limited entry hunting. As noted for the bighorns, the project team expect some limited effects from global warming, although icing of winter ranges from more rainfall in wintertime could cause increased hardships.

• Grizzly bears: These are provincially listed as threatened in the West Chilcotin Ranges, with perhaps 100 left, and extirpated on the plateau to the north. There has been no trophy hunting for years. Recent DNA studies detected 119 grizzlies in the combined Tatlayoko/the upper Chilko River sections of XGCA, so the population in Xeni may be in better shape than expected. A study shows, however, that a non‐climate related concern is that the XGCA is too small to support a viable grizzly population that could survive over the long‐term. If combined with large intact mountain and foothills areas to the north and south, the total area would have enough quality grizzly habitat and salmon to provide a viable population core larger that the Greater Yellowstone Grizzly Bear Yellowstone Ecosystem. Although the grizzly population is overall threatened and well below capacity, being part of a much larger, intact ecosystem will help XGCA grizzly numbers to survive threats from global warming. Since grizzly bears have a cosmopolitan diet, this may also help them survive global warming. Given that Grizzlies use salmon in a number of areas of XGCA, they will experience changes in food supply as salmon runs decline (see section 5.4). However, even with these declines the grizzlies may not suffer significant food losses, especially as they also depend on berries, roots, corns and mammals in the fall. Pine nuts from Whitebark Pine are also used and declines in this species would be another effect of global warming. Wild potatoes (western spring beauty) are another food item projected to decline in availability. However, increases in berry‐producing shrubs from wildfire such as bearberry, soopolallie, huckleberry and blueberry will likely offset some of the other food losses from global warming.

• Wild horse: An estimated 200 – 400 horses range free in the XGCA, some in the Nemiah Valley where they intermingle with a small number of domestic horses and cattle, and the Brittany Triangle, which have the remotest surviving wild horses left on the Canadian mainland. So far, horses have managed to adapt to a wide range of grassland habitats and desert‐like conditions, so they will likely be quite resilient to further climate changes. Notably, two large wildfires in the Brittany, partly attributed to global warming, has overall improved wild horse habitat by bringing back large areas of grasslands that were overgrown with pine forests. Horses will continue to benefit from increased grasslands, but icing of grazing areas from increased rainfall combined with alternating freezing conditions in winter may cause some hardships. Also, overgrazing by domestic livestock in the Nemiah Valley and near Henry’s Crossing has resulted in range deterioration and this is of concern. Spread of alien plants by wild horses, pack animals and livestock is another concern. However, overall the project team expects wild horses to adapt well to c onditions brought on by climate change.

• Wetlands & migratory waterfowl: As mentioned earlier (section 5.1), increased summer droughts will affect many of the large and small wetlands, such as reduced water levels, limiting the amount of marsh habitat for nesting ducks around a pond. Migratory birds, such as waterfowl, will not only be affected by global warming in XGCA, they are also susceptible to all kinds of changes to their continental habitat that makes them more vulnerable.

5.4. Fisheries

This section provides a summary of the larger Study Background Report on Climate Impacts on fisheries in the XGCA prepared by Cariboo Envirotech Ltd. 2006. For the full report, please see Annex 4.

The Xeni Gwet’in First Nation have long been reliant on their own resources for food and to this day actively harvest what the local landscape and rivers have to offer from their Caretaker Area including fish for their consumption. Since time immemorial, the Xeni Gwet’in have relied on the large sockeye, Chinook, Steelhead and Coho salmon runs as a source of protein in their diets. This is still the case, as a community survey conducted in 2006 as part of a fish and fish habitat study in the Nemiah Valley showed that community members depend on fish in their diet at a minimum of twice per week.59

Baseline – fisheries in the Xeni Gwet’in Territory

The following Table 8 provides some of the preferred fishing sites and the species found at these locations within the XGCA.

Table 8: Preferred fishing locations and species in the XGCA Location Known Species Present Chilko River Bull Trout, Chinook Salmon, Coho Salmon, Dolly Varden, Longnose Dace, Mountain Whitefish, Pacific Lamprey, Rainbow Trout, Sockeye Salmon, Steelhead, Whitefish (General) Chilko Lake Bull Trout, Chinook Salmon, Dolly Varden, Minnow (general), Mountain Whitefish, Rainbow Trout, Sockeye Salmon, Steelhead, Sucker (General), Whitefish (General) Taseko River Bull Trout, Chinook Salmon, Dolly Varden, Longnose Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, Rainbow Trout, Sockeye Salmon, Steelhead, Whitefish (General) Taseko Lakes Bull Trout, Dolly Varden, Longnose Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, Rainbow Trout, Sockeye Salmon Elkin Creek Bull Trout, Chinook Salmon, Dolly Varden, Kokanee, Largescale Sucker, Longnose Dace, Longnose Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, Northern Pikeminnow (formerly N. Squawfish), Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner, Steelhead, Whitefish (General) Big Lake Rainbow Trout Konni Lake Bull Trout, Dolly Varden, Mountain Whitefish, Kokanee, Largescale Sucker, Longnose Dace, Longnose Sucker, Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner Fish Lake Rainbow Trout Big Onion Lake Dolly Varden, Rainbow Trout Nemiah Creek Bull Trout, Dolly Varden, Kokanee, Largescale Sucker, Longnose Dace, Longnose Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner Tsuniah Lake Longnose Sucker, Northern Redbelly Dace, Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner Chaunigan Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner Lake Brittany Lake Longnose Sucker, Rainbow Trout, Redside Shiner, Sucker (General). Whitefish (General) Twin Lakes Bull Trout, Dolly Varden, Longnose Sucker, Mountain Whitefish, Nothern Pikeminnow, Whitefish (General)

Sockeye salmon is the most important fish species for consumption by the Xeni Gwet’in community. Fisheries and Oceans Canada determined decades ago that the salmon stocks utilizing the Chilko and

59 Cariboo Envirotech Ltd. 2006.

Taseko River drainages were extremely important and as such have invested a great deal of time and funding in the monitoring and assessment of these runs. The following Table 9 shows sockeye and Chinook escapement data for the Chilko River.60 The trend is further evidence that these stocks are in decline. It should be noted that the 2009 Chinook escapement is from the 2004 brood year that saw 16,287 adult Chinook return to spawn.

Table 9: Salmon (Sockeye and Chinook) escapement to the Chilko River 19932009. Year Sockeye Chinook Year Sockeye Chinook 1993 555226 6343 2001 668783 10891 1994 450745 5665 2002 382814 11027 1995 534559 10461 2003 608321 21625 1996 974349 17000 2004 91909 16287 1997 985827 16272 2005 535967 7668 1998 879017 14549 2006 468947 5201 1999 891922 8920 2007 305853 4366 2000 758941 9171 2008 249863 5186 2009 217572 8548 (preliminary) (preliminary)

Source: Data provided by Fisheries and Oceans biologist Linda Stevens of Williams Lake.

How climate change impacts fish

While there are many negative influences on both anadromous and non‐anadromous fish stocks, including over‐fishing, climate change is now considered to be one of the greatest threats to fish stocks throughout the world, including British Columbia and the Pacific Ocean. In its comprehensive Fourth Assessment Report in 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) st ates:

“There is high confidence, based on substantial new evidence, that observed changes in marine and freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures, as well as related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation. These include: shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance in highlatitude oceans; increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in highlatitude and high altitude lakes; and range changes and earlier fish migrations in rivers [emphasis added]. While there is increasing evidence of climate change impacts on coral reefs, separating the impacts of climaterelated stresses from other stresses (e.g. overfishing and pollution) is difficult. {WGII 1.3, SPM}” (IPCC²).

The Panel’s statement reflects the impact climate change will very likely have on both freshwater and marine aquatic environments. Additionally, climate change is projected to not only affect anadromous species such as salmon, but also non anadromous species, such as rainbow trout, Dolly Varden, Bull Trout, and Kokanee, all of which currently provide food for the Xeni Gwet’in community from lakes and streams in their Caretaker Area.

60 Data provided by Fisheries and Oceans biologist Linda Stevens of Williams Lake.

Past climate changes and their impacts on fish to date

Globally, trends provided by scientists show fish stocks in dramatic decline. According to the IPCC, evidence for impacts of recent climate change being a serious factor in this decline is rapidly accumulating. In their 2007 4th Assessment, the Panel summarizes the state of salmonids on the west coast. The report stated that "Cold and coolwater fisheries, especially salmonids, have been declining as warmer/drier conditions reduce their habitat. The searun salmon stocks are in steep decline throughout much of North America. Pacific salmon have been appearing in Arctic rivers. Salmonid species have been affected by warming in U.S. streams."61

Closer to home, climate change is believed to have been affecting the fishery resource in the XGCA for some time. While the Fraser River remains one of the most productive Pacific salmon rivers in the world, overall trends are not positive, and climate change is likely to make things worse. A recent University of British Columbia (UBC) study analyzed the relationship between stream temperature and salmon survival. Their findings show that temperature challenges aerobic activity in salmon and that each stock of salmon may have different thresholds of survival.62 According to Tony Farrell, UBC, "This study shows that an increase over the past 50 years of 1.8 degrees Celsius in the Fraser River's peak summer temperatures is too much too fast for some salmon stocks". He goes on to say "It also shows that climate change affects even the same species differently because individual populations may have adapted to their respective environments.63

The following three Fgures (13, 14 and 16) from their 2009 report highlight the declines in sockeye, Coho and Chinook salmon for the Fraser River, into which the Taseko and Chilko Rivers flow. Aside from the Upper Fraser summer Chinook run, all other species and runs are also in jeopardy, which will only be further compounded by climate change and its effects on fish and fish habitat located within the XGCA.

The above development is very alarming to the Xeni Gwet’in community, given that especially Sockeye salmon are the most important fish species for their consumption. The 2009 sockeye escapement into many tributaries of the Fraser River including the Chilko was far below expectations. The preliminary indications suggest that the sockeye fry from the Chilko River brood year left the Chilko system in record numbers and size and expectations ran high in 2009 as a result of this, but the return rate was considered a collapse.

The situation remains of great concern nationally and a judicial inquiry has been scheduled by the Canadian government to determine the cause of the sockeye collapse in the Fraser River. Early indications suggest climate change may be to blame. Scientists are now suggesting that ocean conditions in 2007 played a large role in this issue with warmer water temperatures and a lack of food that the young sockeye are reliant on during their early months in the ocean.

61 IPCC, 2007 (In the North America Chapter of the IPCC's WGII Technical Report: "Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability" issued April.) 62 UBC (2008) 63 Tony Farrell, UBC Faculty of Science website

Figure 14: Fraser Sockeye Salmon (19802008)

Source: Fraser Basin Council

Figure 15: Interior Fraser Coho (19802007)

Source: Fraser Basin Council

Figure 16: Fraser River Chinook (19862008)

Source: Fraser Basin Council

Projected Climate Changes and Impacts

On December 9, 2009 the Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council (PFRCC) co‐hosted with Simon Fraser University a think tank of scientists concerned about the failing sockeye salmon returns to the Fraser River. Their press release on that date stated “Climate change poses a major threat to the future of Fraser River salmon, not only through direct effects of temperature on the fish, but also through impacts on food webs and habitats [emphasis added]. Management agencies must take this information into account in order to meet the objectives of Canada’s Wild Salmon Policy, which include maintaining biodiversity as well as monitoring and protecting habitat. These are clearly challenging times for Fraser River sockeye salmon.” (PFRCC).

Few scientists from Fisheries and Oceans Canada will discuss the issue due to the scheduled judicial inquiry however other respected scientists are stepping forward with comments and opinions. Simon Fraser University’s Dr. John Reynolds who holds the Tom Buell chair in salmon conservation recently stated “This is now the way that things may well be for the future, especially under the predictions we have for climate change" (CBC).

The fisheries development is very alarming to the Xeni Gwet’in community, given that especially Sockeye salmon are the most important fish species for their consumption. However, climate change will affect all fish species that the Xeni Gwet’in relies on as a food source differently. In 2009 Nelitz and Porter from ESSA Technologies Ltd. prepared a report on the effects of climate change on Chinook habitat in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin.64 According to this report, the findings suggest that regional climate change impacts on Chinook salmon may be mixed. Interestingly, in some locations there may be benefits of habitat changes, while in other locations there may be constraints on production. For instance, stream habitats with temperatures optimal for Chinook rearing are predicted to decrease in northern areas on the study area and increase in southern areas. Late summer / early flows necessary to maintain rearing juveniles and allow return of spawning spring and summer Chinook are also predicted to decrease more markedly in the north than in the south. In some of the more northern streams summer / fall flows are predicted to decline to such an extent that minimum flows to support successful spawning and rearing may not be reached consistently in the future. The report stressed that further exploration of these data and field validation of the modeled interpretations would be fruitful.

Nelitz and Porter also prepared a report in 2009 on the effects that climate change may have on Coho salmon habitat. This report stated “From a thermal perspective, there appears to be a current abundance of suitable coolwater and coolwarm transition habitats within the downstream reaches of the Chilcotin, Quesnel, and West Road watersheds. Under a “best” case scenario of climate change, changes are predicted to be most significant in the Horsefly and Chilcotin drainages, with temperatures shifting towards those preferred by warmwater fish communities. Under a “worst” case scenario thermal shifts are even more significant and extensive in the Chilcotin and Quesnel. On average, the linear extent of coolwater habitats is predicted to decline in the Chilcotin by the 2080s, while coolwarm transition habitats are expected to increase. The pattern is the opposite in the Quesnel where coolwater habitats are expected to increase while coolwarm transition habitats are expected to decrease. These changes are accompanied by potentially large increase in the extent of warmwater habitats which could adversely affect Coho.”65 The authors notes in their report that

64 Nellitz and Porter (2009a). 65 Nellitz and Porter (2009b).

48 although informative, it will be important to examine where these changes occur specifically to determine whether they might be a benefit (increasing extent of suitable thermal habitats, as in the Quesnel) or constraint (decreasing extent of preferable thermal habitats, as in the Chilcotin) on the productive capacity of Coho habitats.

Concern for future climate change and its effects on fish are not restricted to anadromous species such as salmon, but also to non‐migratory species such as bull trout which form part of the Xeni Gwet’in diet. Bull trout are blue listed as a species of special concern in British Columbia. Nelitz and Porter prepared a third report –also in 2009 ‐ on the effects climate change may have on bull trout in the Cariboo Chilcotin. Their analyses suggest that for all regional watersheds with resident bull trout the extent of preferred coldwater habitats will decrease considerably under the varied climate change scenarios and that the extent of habitats considered thermally sub‐ optimal or potentially unusable by bull trout will increase.66 The report stated, though, that “The general patterns of this analysis do not, however, seem promising for bull trout. Bull trout are already considered a sensitive species within BC with very specific cold water habitat requirements, so further impacts to their remaining core habitats is likely a cause for concern. The long term patterns suggest both an expected decrease in the total amount of cold water stream habitat and fragmentation of these colder areas into disconnected “patches” of suitable habitat. Maintaining viable sized patches of cold water habitats for bull trout and ensuring unimpeded connectivity between them may become an important future issue for maintaining genetic exchange between increasingly isolated regional bull trout populations. 67

6. Xeni Gwet’in Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment

Climate change vulnerability is defined as the ability or inability of individuals or a group to cope with or adapt to climate impacts on their livelihood and well‐being68. The following section is an assessment of the vulnerability of Xeni Gwet’in First Nation to potential climate changes and their impacts.

The Xeni Gwet’in, like many First Nations, have seen their fair share of changes to their way of life over the last few centuries. They have experienced colonization, the spread of new diseases, the imposition of the reserve system and the residential school system, continued encroachment by outside interests intent on carving up the territory for industrial forestry and mining, resort and real estate development. And the community increasingly faces the influences of western consumer culture through the TV, the internet and the education system.

Despite these changes or influences, the Xeni Gwet’in have maintained a relatively healthy community as compared to many First Nation communities in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin. Many of the population continue to speak their mother tongue and pass on traditional ways, the people continue to hunt fish and collect, they have an excellent K‐9 school system that teaches the Chilcotin language and culture and the community is actively engaged in political and cultural affairs. The community has also managed to protect a large part of its traditional territory and therefore have a relatively intact ecosystem, abundant with clean water supplies, wildlife, fish and wild horses. They have a moderately diversified energy system, a reliable water system and road maintenance

66 Nellitz and Porter (2009c). 67 Nellitz and Porter (2009c). 68 Tyndall Group for Climate Change Research, 2005

49 system. They are relatively healthy and have managed not be overcome by substance abuse like other reserves.

Nevertheless the community might be characterized as relatively vulnerable to potential climate changes, since they remain very dependent on one source income (Federal government transfers) for their livelihood and maintenance, they have very little control over the land they actually inhabit and depend upon for sustenance, they are increasingly dependent on food and technology imports, they have few people and resources to plan, monitor and enforce the management of their land or to invest in new enterprise. And they also increasingly experiencing conflicts over land use in their territory, the results of which could jeopardize the health and biodiversity of their land and thereby their ability to cope with climate change.

Below is an assessment of Xeni Gwet’in First Nation based on the WEHAB+ framework developed by the Tyndall Group for Climate Change Research69. The WEHAB+ methodology is simply an acronym that sta nds for the six or more important supports for society: W ‐ Water E ‐ Energy H ‐ Health A ‐ Agriculture and Food Supply B ‐ Biodiversity + additional supports like human settlements and infrastructure

We use this framework but also add governance, livelihoods and culture as other important supports.

6.1. Biodiversity

The XGCA is one of the last intact ecosystems on the east side of the Chilcotin range. It has large riparian areas in the valleys ranging from open wetlands and closed canopy moist forest. It has large plateau lands with a mix of dry forests and grasslands and long chains of wetland or wet forest. It has high alpine features mixed with barren mountain‐sides and alpine meadows that experience cold temperatures most of the year. It has an abundance of moose, mule deer, black bears and grizzly bears, mountain goats, California Big Horn Sheep, wolves and coyotes, beavers, marmots, tree nesting birds and waterfowl. It still supports almost all of the native flora that were present during the Pleistocene era and includes populations of wild horses whose ancestry may date back to the Spanish horses that migrated north from Central America. Its proximity to the coastal ranges and an abundance of glaciers has also blessed it with an abundance of clean freshwater in its many lakes, rivers and streams. These water bodies are home to one of the largest interior salmon runs in BC, providing spawning grounds for sockeye, Chinook, Steelhead, Chum and Kokanee as well as home to an abundance other endogenous cool water fish. This rich biodiversity is a result of a complex of diverse soils, water and topographic conditions but it is also a result of limited human use in the area.

This is not to say that there are no stresses on the XGCA ecosystem. There is increasing recreational tourism pressure on the land and water bodies, leading to more hunting, fishing, and camping, boating, off‐road motorized and non‐motorized access. There is also increased subsistence hunting and fishing by non‐Xeni Gwet’in First Nations and and recreational hunters. Salmon stocks, as indicated in section 5.4, have experienced a significant decline recently for

69 Tyndall Group for Climate Change Research (2005, p 42).

50 unknown reasons. There have been two significant fires in the last decade resulting in large burns, fireguards and new roads.70 There is increasing mineral exploration activity in the area, not least of which includes the Prosperity Mine Project, which has led to tree clearing, drilling and more on‐ and off‐road traffic.

As indicated in the climate projections and biophysical impacts in earlier sections, accelerated climate warming, will likely place more stress on the ecosystem than it has recently experienced. There will be impacts throughout the XGCA on vegetation, wildlife, fish and water resources. However, despite some of the human induced stresses on the ecosystem, the XGCA is a fairly healthy and intact ecosystem, making it fairly resilient to potential climate changes. Conservation biologists agree that “maintaining connectivity between natural habitats, and along altitudinal gradients, is a key strategy to allowing plant and animal species to adapt to climate change.”71 And if the XGCA ecosystem is healthy and “resilient”, the Xeni Gwet’in community, who depend significantly upon the land for their sustenance, their health and their culture, stand a better chance of coping with climate change. The World Bank states as much when commenting on the relationship bet w een biodiversity and climate adaptation:

“Within any given ecosystem, functionally diverse communities are more likely to be resilient to climate change and climate variability than biologically impoverished communities.”72

The same holds true for communities and ecosystems outside the XGCA. The benefits of a healthy ecosystem accrue to ecosystems and communities downstream as well, since the ecosystem services produced in the XGCA flow out of the area benefitting all life.

“Mountain habitats...bestow multiple ecosystem, soil conservation, and watershed benefits. They are often centers of endemism, Pleistocene refuges, and source populations for restocking of more low‐lying habitats. Mountain ecosystems influence rainfall regimes and climate at local and regional levels, helping to contain global warming through carbon sequestration and storage in soils and plant biomass. Wetlands are nature’s kidneys, providing indispensable ecosystem services that regulate nutrient loading and water quality.”73

Where the Xeni Gwet’in may be vulnerable is if they cannot manage to maintain a healthy ecosystem due to increasing pressures from the outside world. There are significant logging and mining plans for the XGCA, which threaten to seriously disturb the existing balance. If this is the case and the land increasingly becomes fragmented by roads and development and the air, waters and soils become stressed by increased pollution, the ecosystem will be much less resilient to the stresses of climate change, which will undoubtedly affect the Xeni Gwet’in’s ability to cope with climate change as well.

70 The 2003 Chilko Fire and the 2009 Lava Canyon Fire were the largest in BC in both years.

71 World Bank (2009). 72 World Bank (2009). 73 World Bank (2009).

6.2. Health and Safety

At present, there is one full‐time nurse position in the community (Nemiah Valley) and a full‐time nurse in Tatla Lake (two hours from Nemiah) but no doctor. The nearest ambulatory services are at Alexis Creek Reserve or Tatla Lake (over 1.5 hours away by road). Air ambulance is available from Williams Lake (0.5 hours away) for life threatening conditions pending weather conditions.

Despite having rather limited health services, the Xeni Gwet’in community is relatively healthy, although there is a moderate rate of substance abuse and addiction and the community is experiencing some increases in diabetes, asthma, heart disease and obesity likely due to changing diet.

Safety services and infrastructure are also very limited in the XGCA, there is no community fire service or fire crew or firefighting equipment in Nemiah or Chilko, or Tatla Lake, the airstrips in Nemiah and north Chilko Lake are too short to legally handle anything bigger than a Cessna 172 or Cessna 206 (4‐6 seaters) and there is only one good road in and out of Nemiah and north Chilko. However, the Xeni Gwet’in community has very good road maintenance equipment and skills to develop fireguards and flood guards, it has recently developed an emergency preparedness plan and a wildfire protection plan for the reserve and certain high value sites in the great XGCA and the community is also served by the BC Wildfire Management Branch in case of emergencies.

The most immediate risk of climate change is the damage due wild fires, which could result in the loss of life (Xeni Gwet’in, non‐Xeni Gwet’in residents, and visitors), the loss of property (homes, businesses, infrastructure and livestock), increased mental stress associated with these losses or potential losses and respiratory ailments due to smoke and ash. More long‐term risks are associated with flooding in the spring74. Flooding has occurred regularly in Elkin Creek, Nemiah Creek and Konni Lake drainages and even in the Klokon Creek aquifer. Chilko Lake and Chilko River also regularly experience high levels that put property owners at risk. These and other residential areas of the XGCA as well as major roadways could experience more serious or frequent flooding in the future with milder winters. Because the Xeni Gwet’in have very limited health and safety services and they are remote and have limited access in and out of the area, they are fairly vulnerable to wild fires and flooding.

6.3. Water Supply

There is abundant, high quality water throughout the XGCA, with numerous glacier fed lakes and rivers. Access of potable water for household purposes by the Xeni Gwet’in is primarily through the community water system, based on a community well near the Band office, which draws on the Klokon aquifer. Approximately 9% of the Xeni Gwet’in residents are not on this system but use shallow Wells or an infiltration gallery. The community water system and other household systems are tested weekly and monitored closely. By and large the community wells and Klokon aquifer are quite healthy, with a sustainable yields of between 2.90 L/s and 5.0 L/s 75 during the summer

74 Flooding does occur occasionally at certain points in the XGCA, which has impeded daily life for Xeni Gwet’in and non‐ Xeni Gwet’in residents. Klokon Creek and Elkins Creek are particularly vulnerable in Nemiah Valley as are the shorelines of Chilko Lake and the Chilko River, where a number of resorts are located. The Cariboo Regional District has kept some records of flooding in the area and now has a shoreline policy in place for property development but no comprehensive flood protection plan is in place for the Nemiah Valley or the XGCA. 75 Sustainable yield of 2.96 L/s for WIN20361, 2.90 L/s for WIN20362. 5.0 L/s for WIN24154 – Kala Groundwater 2008.

52 season and below detection coliform counts. The Klokon aquifer on which the community depends is estimated to be quite large, stretching from the bifurcation of Klokon creek down to the valley bottom, which is expected to serve the community quite easily for years to come.

The Xeni Gwet’in rely on water sources other than their water systems. Because they are somewhat nomadic within the XGCA for traditional activities such hunting, fishing, collecting and back country riding, they often acquire drinking water from local streams, rivers, and lakes.

Water for non‐potable uses such as gardening depends on these same systems, except in the case of large scale irrigation for hay farming. To irrigate fields in the Nemiah Valley, the Xeni Gwet’in use flood irrigation. This involves allowing natural flooding or diversions from nearby streams during the spring or early summer. Elkin’s Creek Ranch however diverts water regularly from Elkin’s Creek via a pump and sprinkler irrigation system. Other pasture lands in the XGCA are largely rain fed and wild, which the cattle, wildlife and wild horses graze on the fall, spring and summer. Watering of livestock is also dependent on water directly from streams or ponds and is largely unmanaged, leading to frequent and unmonitored contamination with fecal matter.

Climate change will bring a variety of risks to water supply but most of these are likely to occur in the medium to long‐term, barring any damage to water systems or water courses due to fire or flood. Milder and wetter winters will cause peak flows to occur earlier in the spring or summer, which could lead to increased flooding but also less water stored as snow for flows in the late summer. Drier and hotter summers could lead to increased evapo‐transpiration from XGCA lakes, streams and accelerated melting of glaciers, which in the short‐term may not affect water flows but in the medium and long‐term may result in reduced water flows in the summer. Both increased flooding in the spring and reduced flows in the summer could jeopardize property or potable water supplies.76. These events may also affect water supplies for livestock, wild life and vegetation.

The one weakness of the current water system is that it is fed by the Klokon glacier, which may be in jeopardy in the long‐term with milder weather. However, should this system fail due to low glacial flows, Konni Lake has been designated the back‐up water source for the community, which is quite large, deep and easily accessible by the community. The community is also near to Chilko Lake, which could also be a long‐term source of freshwater. Hence, the Xeni Gwet’in might be considered fairly resilient as far as water supply goes due to the abundance of fresh water sources in the Nemiah Valley. This could change rapidly if outside interests begin contaminating these water sources as a result of industrial logging or mining in the area or if they attempt large scale water diversions.77 None of these risks are improbable. Indeed, the Prosperity Mine project is at its final stage of review and it is only one mountain range away from the Nemiah Valley. Moreover, as the southern US becomes more arid due to climate changes, XGCA water may become a hot commodity and may either attract more development or attract increasing pressure to export.

6.4. Food Supply

76 Flooding could cause contamination of wells and surface water as well as creating stagnant water in poorly drained areas. Increased evapotranspiration could result in lower flows, lesser recharging of water supplies and therefore result lower dilution ratios to particulates or contaminants. 77 The Taseko Lakes were proposed to be part of a massive hydroelectric development which would have seen the flow of the Taseko River dammed and diverted westward via a tunnel to Chilko Lake, which would have been also dammed and diverted through further tunnels to Tatlayoko Lake on the Homathko River, which unlike the Taseko and Chilko Rivers drains directly to the ocean at Bute Inlet rather than via the Chilcotin and Fraser Rivers. Fisheries and aboriginal land claims concerns have derailed the Taseko diversion, although the Chilko diversion remains as a possibility.

The Xeni Gwet’in depend on a variety of food sources for their diet, including wild plants and animals, store bought food and some cultivated vegetables. Wild animals important to the Xeni Gwet’in for food include: mule deer and moose, salmon, trout and whitefish for protein. These meats and fish foods are typically caught in large batches in the spring and fall and canned or dried for winter food supplies and sharing. Wild plants important to the Xeni Gwet’in for food and medicines include but are not limited to wild potato, beartooth, Trapper Tea, Indian Hellebore, raspberry, saskatoon berry, chokecherry, soapberry, Kinnikinnik and strawberry. Some of these plants are dried or canned if sufficient quantities warrant and the products lend themselves to preservation. Some of the community also cultivate vegetables in the summer and can or preserve the surpluses where available. Ironically, many of the Xeni Gwet’in raise or have raised cattle but seldom slaughter them for eating, instead preferring to sell them for cash. Whatever is not obtained from wild sources or local gardens is supplemented by store bought food, often purchased in Williams Lake. Based on recent surveys roughly 70% of food supplies are purchased from commercial sources with a predominance of these purchases occurring in the winter months. Although this balance of wild, cultivated and store bought food sources is undoubtedly higher than most non‐First Nations and urban dwellers it is gradually shifting to more store bought food as a result of easier access to commercial food sources and as a result of less hunting, fishing, collecting and gardening by younger gener ations.

Climate change may affect Xeni Gwet’in food supply in both negative and positive ways. In the immediate future the occurrence of wild fires may temporarily threaten the food security of the community because it may cause wild game to flee from traditional hunting areas, it may destroy summer gardens and/or it may hinder access to food imports (from town).

In the medium and long‐term, however, as the climate increasingly warms some wild food sources may shift to new areas of the XGCA or disappear altogether which may lead to lower consumption of these wild foods. As mention in section 5.3, dry summers may cause moose to migrate to wetter and cooler environments. Drier summers may also cause wild potato, bear tooth, trapper tea, Indian hellebore and raspberry to die off at current elevations (section 5.2). Warmer rivers, lakes and oceans, caused by hot summers and mild winters, may also reduce salmon and trout populations significantly in the XGCA (section 5.4).

At the same time, the milder winters and warmer summers in the medium and long term may expand the growing season for new and existing crops. If the water is available and the Xeni Gwet’in are inclined towards agricultural development, there may be opportunities to expand their cultivated food supply. Moreover, with the help of more frequent wild fires, the availability of rangeland for cattle and mule deer may be expanded, making beef and deer meat more available. Drier summers may also invigorate the growth of saskatoon berry, chokecherry, soapberry, Kinnikinnik and strawberry, which are commonly harvested by the Xeni Gwet’in.

Hence, while climate change may reduce the availability of some wild foods, it may allow others to thrive and it may allow for greater agricultural production in the region, with the potential for making the Xeni Gwet’in’s food supply more diverse.

6.5. Shelter and Infrastructure

Housing among most of the Xeni Gwet’in community might best be described as rustic. Much of the housing stock in the Nemiah Valley consists of small single family log homes that are relatively old (between 30 and 50 years). Some new stick frame and mobile homes exist as well but they do not

54 appear to be aging very well.78 These houses in the community are spread out sparsely in small clusters from Konni Lake to Chilko Lake. Despite the age of much of the log housing it is still relatively functional and comfortable. There are issues with rot and mold due to leaky roofs and leaky pipes, and ventilation as well as with draftiness and poor accessibility for seniors but recent renovations by the community have rectified some of these concerns. There continues to be a demand for new modern housing but INAC housing stipends are not sufficient to build new single family housing and few in the community can afford to finance a home themselves.

Infrastructure in the XGCA is relatively sparse and largely locally maintained. Water, energy, and health infrastructures have already been discussed in earlier sections, so these need no further discussion here. Sanitation, telecommunication and public buildings used by the Xeni Gwet’in are largely in the Nemiah Valley and are very small in scale. The road network in and out of the XGCA is comprised of tertiary gravel and bush roads and are partially maintained by the Xeni Gwet’in up to the Stone Reserve and thereafter maintained by the Interior Roads Ltd. There is only one four season gravel road accessing the Nemiah Valley from Highway 20. There is also one four season gravel road maintained by Interior Roads Ltd. into north Chilko Lake.

Other infrastructure like Xeni Gwet’in government buildings comprise of a Band Office, the Health and Social Services building, the daycare, the Tourism/Economic Development office, the Xeni Enterprise Trailer, the Public Works yard and the K‐9 school, which are clustered together near the west end of Konni Lake. Telecommunication infrastructure is based on radio or satellite systems, with practically every household and office having access to one or the other. Sanitation is fairly decentralized with each household on septic fields and tanks, except for the public buildings and an adjacent sub‐division which have a centralized septic system.

Climate change may affect Xeni Gwet’in housing and infrastructure in both immediate and longer term ways. In the immediate term the occurrence of wild fires may threaten the destruction or damage of housing and infrastructure. Houses, in particular, will be difficult to protect because they are so spread out throughout the Nemiah Valley. This is not the case for for community buildings, which are fairly centralized near the head of Konni Lake. Road access is the only mass evacuation route out of the XGCA at the moment and if it is blocked due to fire or damaged bridges, there are few alternatives for efficient evacuation. Telecommunication may be fairly resilient to wild fires because it is either based on radio or satellite systems, which are not dependent on a central hub in the region. Similarly, sanitation is fairly decentralized, except for the public buildings.

In the medium to long‐term, wetter and milder winters and unpredictable storms may increase the incidence of flooding and wind damage in certain areas as well as the incidence of mold and mildew in the houses and public buildings if they are not well maintained. It may also wreak havoc on the roads networks due to more frequent icing and thawing or washouts.79

Firefighting capacity has been discussed above and needs no further elaboration. The Xeni Gwet’in have fairly strong capabilities to deal with road maintenance and repair but not bridge repair. They do not have much in the way of resources to monitor and deal for flood protection, sanitation repair and telecommunication equipment repair. They do have a number of good carpenters but few other trades people and few funds to undertake building repair, although INAC is theoretically

78 Comments from Jon Tanis, Carpenter and resident of Nemiah Valley. 79 Typically, winter is easier on the roads than the other seasons because the snow and ice act as a shield against wear and tear. With more frequent thawing, the roads could become quite slick and pot‐holed. As well, floods have occurred east of Konni Lake and Elkins Creek and even at the Band office. These may become more common.

55 obligated to finance these repairs in the event of an emergency or in the event of a health risk yet this does not always happen quickly.

6.6. Energy Supply

Comparatively speaking the people of the XGCA are relatively small energy consumers and are relatively diversified in their use of energy. All of the XGCA, except for Tatla Lake are off the BC Hydro electrical grid. The nearest BCHydro line is either Tatla Lake or Lee’s Corner just passed the north east boundary of the XGCA. The entire area is also unserviced by natural gas but residents and operators can and do have propane and diesel delivered regularly. To provide power and heat for all those off the grid, a combination of diesel generator, propane, solar, wind and/or firewood are employed. Tsuniah Lodge also has access to hydro from its own micro‐hydro system. The most common strategy for generating power in the XGCA is to use diesel, gas or propane generators. The most common strategy for generating heat is still wood fire stoves, furnaces or fireplaces. There are a number of solar/propane hybrid systems set up to serve a number of housing clusters in the Nemiah Valley. Some individual houses also have their own solar systems. There is also some exploration in the community concerning alternative energy sources including wind, mini‐hydro, linking to the BCHydro grid, and bio‐fuel. At the moment, the most feasible approach seems to entail a mini‐hydro power station on Klokon Creek (above the Band office), which would have the capacity to power (not heat) the whole Nemiah Valley and more80.

Climate change may affect Xeni Gwet’in energy systems in a number of ways. Firstly, wild fires induced by drier summers may put some of the existing power and heating systems at risk but because of the decentralized distribution of these systems it is unlikely that all systems would be affected. Secondly, drier summers may limit the capacity of the proposed new mini‐hydro project if significant draw downs occur because of evapo‐transpiration and low rates of replenishment. On the positive side, milder winters are likely to result in lower heating requirements for public buildings and households.

6.7. Livelihood

The Xeni Gwet’in sustains their livelihoods in a mix of ways. The most predominant means is through public sector transfers (mainly federal), in the form of Band government employment, BC Parks employment, social assistance, unemployment insurance, training subsidies or social security. The second most common means of support is by working outside of the XGCA, either in the service sector or in the resource sector (forestry and mining), on a seasonal basis. And the third means of support is by working in the XGCA tourism sector (B&B operation or guiding for wilderness resorts) or in the ranching sector (cow‐calf operations). There is a significant tourism sector in the XGCA, including 11 resorts, 3 B&Bs, 3 guide‐outfitters, and 4 boat/raft companies but few of the Xeni Gwet’in community are directly involved in it as yet. There are significant forest, wildlife, mineral and fishery resources in the region but the Xeni Gwet’in have yet to develop them except for subsistence purposes81. There may even by viable wind energy to exploit and sell into the grid at the north end of the territory. There are plans to do more with these resources and

80 Feasibility/predesign of the mini‐hydro project is complete; now awaiting decision from Xeni Gwet’in Council as to whether or not they wish to pursue the project. Funding is somewhat dependent on INAC and BC Hydro. Chief Marilyn wants to have a referendum on whether Xeni Gwet’in should partner with BC Hydro. 81 The Prosperity Mine at a copper/gold mine that is being proposed for the Fish Lake area in the XGCA. However, this project is opposed by the Xeni Gwet’in and most of the Tsilqot’in Nation.

56 opportunities in the near future in a eco‐friendly manner but the lack of capital and manpower make progr e ss very slow.

The heavy dependence of the Xeni Gwet’in on the public sector is both an advantage and disadvantage in the face of climate change. Core public transfers to date have been relatively stable and are likely to stay that way as long as the Xeni Gwet’in are governed by the Indian Act. This means that the Xeni Gwet’in are somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the economy and the effects that climate change may have on the economy. However, the dependence on public transfers also limits the Xeni Gwet’in to a fairly low level of income, employment and investment. It also limits the level of community autonomy and the ability to pursue what it sees as its best interests in terms of a response to climate change.

There are three potential growth sectors that the Xeni Gwet’in are interested in pursuing in the future including: nature‐based aboriginal tourism, eco‐forestry & value‐added wood products and natural/organic agriculture. Nature‐based aboriginal tourism development is the key focus at the moment and involves plans for investments in guided tours, ceremonial meals and a destination resort.82 Eco‐forestry has also begun to be explored with the intention of focusing on small‐scale ecosystem‐based conservation forestry83. Agriculture has not been closely examined but the intention is to build on the Xeni Gwet’in ranching heritage and explore new opportunities for niche cultivation.

Climate change will have a mixed impact on all three of these economic sectors.

Naturebase Aboriginal Tourism

Wild fire poses a risk to business property and livestock, the temporary loss of wildlife for hunting and viewing, the loss of viewscapes, and the interruption of business operations. Warmer summers also may result in more frequent open camp fires bans for campers. And warmer waters pose a risk to fish stocks and therefore fishing tourism as well as the proposed cat‐skiing operation proposed. On the other hand, wild fires could improve habitat for certain wildlife and thereby improve opportunities for hunting and wildlife viewing. And milder springs and falls could expand should seasons to make tourism more viable in the area.

EcoForestry & Valueadded

The impacts of climate change on forests have been discussed in section 5.2. Suffice to say that climate change could result in the destruction of significant amounts of merchantable and non‐ merchantable timber through wild fires and new pests, which could greatly reduce the potential for forest harvests. However, climate change could also result in the new botanical opportunities (mushrooms, berries etc) and it could, in the long‐run transform a large portion of the XGCA forest into Douglas‐fir stands, which are typically more merchantable and of higher value than the current lodgepole pine dominated forests. The proposed Silva ecosystem‐based forestry approach proposes an annual volume cut of 783m3 distributed by selective and small batch cutting throughout the “eco‐forestry zones of the region84, which would leave the forest ecosystem essentially intact. As it is, the proposed approach does not account for the extensive fire risk occurring throughout the region as a result of the beetle kill infestation nor the potential transition

82 Ecolibrio (2009). 83 Hammond and others (2004). 84 Hammond and others (2004).

57 the ecosystem may experience over the long‐term. However, given the relatively small cut prescribed, it is likely that it will be easy to meet the annual cut with beetle kill wood alone and/or adjust to cutting to new areas if wildfires destroy proposed cutting areas. Moreover, since the forestry approach is ecosystem‐based, any major changes to the ecosystem would hopefully be reflected in the approach to forestry.

Organic/Natural Agriculture

Ranching and haying are the main agricultural activities that the Xeni Gwet’in are engaged in the XGCA, although the level of activity has declined over the years due to poor returns on cattle sales. The community is looking to re‐invigorate this commercial activity and perhaps partner with a meat processing facility in the region to market Xeni branded natural or organic beef products. They are also interested in investigating the potential of other commercially viable cultivated products in the region.

The most immediate risk to ranching and agricultural development in general in the XGCA is fire. Wildfires could kill, maim or scatter livestock, destroy hay fields and pastures, and damage fencing. At the same, time fire could also re‐invigorate and expand grasslands for grazing in the medium to long‐term, which would benefit ranching in the area. A milder fall and spring may also expand the growing season for new crops.

6.8. Governance

The Xeni Gwet’in First Nation government governs its community under the auspices of the Indian Act and the federal government of Canada. This means that most decision‐making is carried out by the four members of the Xeni Gwet’in Band Council.85 All of the community’s planning, administration and social services, basic health care, housing administration, public works, economic development, external agency referrals and jurisdictional decision‐making are carried out by the Band Government with some assistance of the Tsilqot’in National Government on regional planning issues. Most of the funding for these services comes from the federal government with small amounts also coming from the provincial government for designated projects. There are no other revenue sources for the Band government at this time. Although this funding covers most of the basic necessities of government, there is very little discretionary funding to deal with land use management issues in the XGCA.

Governing the community can not be easy. The community is fairly depressed economically, youth and young families regularly leave the area for work and education resulting in a capacity drain. The community is aging and the number of children is declining making it difficult to maintain the K‐9 school. There are constant threats and pressures on the land from outside sources, including most recently the push to establish the Prosperity Mine at Fish Lake and real estate development at the north end of Chilko Lake. There is also increasing unpermitted use by ATVs, mountain bikers, hunters and sports fishermen and boaters. On top of this, the community is fighting a rights and title case against the BC government in the BC Supreme Court.

85 By‐Elections for two council positions recently added a fourth member to Council, which will add capacity to the current Band Council affairs and decision‐making.

Climate change will not directly affect community governance but the effects it will have on the land and on community assets could certainly add more stress to governing an already challenging situation. In the short‐term, wild fires could destroy housing and public infrastructure, which could impede the regular activities of government. Long‐term changes due to climate change will be more gradual but they will force more systematic changes to community development.

6.9. Culture

The Xeni Gwet’in are the original inhabitants of the XGCA, occupying and using the land for thousands of years. Culturally they regard themselves as people of the Tsilhqot’in Nation, which has a distinct language, a distinct system of meanings and values, a distinct kinship system and a distinct way of life marked by a blend of sub‐arctic, plateau and coastal practices.86 The Xeni Gwet’in are unusual among First Nation communities in the southern half of BC in retaining almost complete use of their own Chilcotin language and in continuing to hunt, fish and collect berries, roots and medicines from the land much the same way their ancestors did. It is not an accident that the Xeni Gwet’in culture is relatively strong. The community is remote and is not inundated by non‐ Xeni Gwet’in culture. It has its own K‐9 school, wherein the language and the culture are taught. The community makes a real effort to gather together and celebrate its culture at regular times of the year. The children are taught and encouraged to ride and hunt, fish and collect. And the land has remained fairly healthy so hunting, fishing and collecting is relatively easy. Indeed, the strength of the Xeni Gwet’in culture is closely related to the health of the land, since their stories, their diet, their medicines, their seasonal movements and their social gatherings all revolve around a healthy land.

Although the Xeni Gwet’in culture is relatively strong, the culture is at risk of declining as the outside world increasingly influences the community through TV, radio, internet and consumer culture and as the youth travel or leave the community for work, education or marriage. Climate change will only stress the traditional culture further, since it will stress the land upon which the Xeni Gwet’in culture is inextricably linked. Salmon and trout fishing, to some extent hunting (moose) and collecting may become more difficult, which may negatively impact traditional food gathering and local self‐sufficiency. Climate change could accelerate a shift that is already occurring away from traditional culture, perhaps to a more agrarian culture, if farming is taken up in a bigger way, or perhaps to a more western rural culture, if store bought foods become the sole food source. There is no way of knowing how the Xeni Gwet’in culture will respond to the climate changes. However, what is guaranteed is that the adaptation choices available to the Xeni Gwet’in will become fewer if the biodiversity and resiliency of the land is compromised by unsustainable development. If the land remains healthy and resilient, it will more easily adapt to the coming climate changes and the same is true for the Xeni Gwet’in traditional culture.

7. The Xeni Gwet’in Vision for Sustainable Development

The Xeni Gwet’in see themselves as stewards of the XGCA and envision sustainable development and human activity, grounded in an ecosystem‐based approach to land use. The community intends to continue to be to hunt, trap, fish, and collect for sustenance. They intend to ranch and guide as

86 Argument of Plaintiff, Volume 1. Roger Williams vs the Province of BC. P. 175

59 they traditionally have as well as take a lead role in the administration of their local government and its services. They also intend to be engaged in new activities such as eco‐forestry and value‐ added wood processing,cultural tourism, organic/naturalagriculture and alternative energy development. However, they intend to pursue these opportunities while minimizing impacts on the land and waters, leaving them as much as possible in a self‐sustaining and wild state, so that there continues to be clean water, clean air and abundant fish and wildlife.

There may be other opportunities that the community may pursue but development in the XGCA must strengthen the community’s well‐being, its capacity for self‐sufficiency as well as the Xeni Gwet’in people’s capacity to realize their dreams and aspirations. Future development may utilize the best of mainstream technology and practices but it must also respect and conserve traditional values and practices of the Xeni Gwet’in culture.

The Xeni Gwet’in welcome the opportunity to work cooperatively with all their neighbours within the XGCA and outside to develop sustainable activities that are consistent with this vision.

8. Xeni Gwet’in Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

Adaptation to climate change can occur in many ways. Below are strategies that are based on the WEHAB+ framework used in the Vulnerability Assessment.

8.1. Biodiversity Protection and Conservation

The protection and conservation of biodiversity in the XGCA is the foundation for community resiliency in the XGCA. A healthy and resilient ecosystem allows for a healthy and resilient community and therefore a key strategy in the Xeni Gwet’in’s adaptation plan must include the protection and conservation of biodiversity. The following are number of measures recommended by the community and the consultants to protect and conserve the biodiversity of the XGCA. They are divided into general, wildlife & wild horse and wild plant categories.

Objective #1. Maintain the XGCA eco system(s) intact • Limit fragmentation of the XGCA area by roads, clearcuts, mines and real estate development (ongoing) • Adopt an ecosystem‐based planning approach to all land use in the XGCA (short‐term) • Prohibit industrial logging and forestry in the area (ongoing) • Limit access to the XGCA wilderness, restricting road, water and air access to designated areas (ongoing access management) • Establish baseline indicator data for biodiversity in the XGCA (short‐term)

Objective #2. Conserve Wildlife and Wild Horses in the XGCA • Establish clear protocols for sustainable range management with stakeholders (ongoing) • Integrate natural and prescribed burns into the Wild Fire Protection Plan‐ to restore grassland and mixed forest/grassland ecosystems (short‐term) • Integrate peat preservation into Wild Fire Protection Plan (ensure peat meadow fires are extinguished after wildfires ) (short‐term)

• Monitor indicator wildlife stocks and limit commercial, recreational and subsistence hunting if stocks decline • Investigate habitat modification to retain certain species (forest thinning to improve moose winter range) (Long‐term) • Restrict hunting during mating season (short‐term) • Catch wild horses, train them and use them as stock (short‐term)

Box 4: Community Ideas for Biodiversity Protection

Community Ideas – Biodiversity Protection

Wild life 1. Reduce commercial/recreational hunting 2. Control subsistence hunting (take only what you need) 3. Xeni Gwet’in start monitoring for poaching and over‐hunting (set up road check points) 4. No industrial logging or mining 5. Stop littering and polluting 6. Restrict hunting during mating season

Fish 1. Reduce commercial/recreational fish catches 2. Control subsistence fishing (take only what you need) 3. Work with lodges to monitor and control catches 4. No industrial logging or mining

5. Clear beaver dams from streams

6. Stop polluting the waters, esp. fire retardants and pesticides

7. Catch only big fish (leave small fish)

8. No net fishing Wild Horses

1. No shooting of wild horses. If wish to cull the herd, catch them and sell them

as stock.

Objective #3. Conserve Fish Stocks • Monitor fish stocks and limit commercial, recreational and subsistence fishing if stocks continue to decline (short‐term) • Limit fish catches to large fish only (short‐term) • Transplant or re‐introduce fish stocks to new or extirpated lakes or streams (mid to long‐ term) • Preserve pristine watersheds from unsustainable development (e.g. Prosperity Mine) (short‐ term) • Implement low impact irrigation practices (short‐term)

• Dam and store water at Abelachez Lake to release water during the late summer months if necessary (mid to long‐term) • Improve fish passages by clearing culverts and streams of debris and beaver dams (ongoing) • Encourage low impact forestry (if forestry is pursued) to protect riparian areas (short‐term) • Encourage low impact ranching (fence cattle, control runoff and designate watering areas) to protect riparian areas. Nemiah creek is a particular concern. (short‐term) • Clean or install new gravels at Nemiah Creek (short‐term) • Encourage riparian planting where needed (mid to long‐term) • See Water Protection and Conservation for more recommendations

Objective #4. Preserve Wild Plants in the XGCA • Transplant traditional food/medicine plants that require moist to wet habitats (wild potato, glacier lily, bear tooth, trapper tea, Indian hellebore and raspberry) (mid to long‐term). Assist migration as habitats shrink or move.

8.2. Health and Safety Enhancements

Wild fire protection and prevention is perhaps the most urgent need in terms of adaptation for the Xeni Gwet’in community although flood protection may be an increasing threat as well. Large wild fires have already begun (summer 2009) and will likely continue. An emergency evacuation plan is in place, which will cover mass evacuation in the event of a wild fire and other events (floods). The recent wild fire protection plan developed by the community lays out a number of preventive strategies to address the risks in the short‐term as follows:

Objective #1. Protect Residents and Key Cultural Sites from Wild Fires in the XGCA Short‐term • Deliver FireSmart hand‐outs to all households to encourage FireSmart landscaping for individual residences. • Develop and pass a Band Council Resolution, with Band policy implemented, requiring that all future home construction, modifications, and renovations conform to FireSmart standards. • Work closely with the appropriate agencies to carry out the necessary repairs to the mesh around the waste disposal pit and clear the forested area at least 30 metres around the entire perimeter. • Acquire sufficient wildland firefighting equipment for 10 firefighters. • Acquire sufficient equipment to manage and minimize wildfire threat i.e. mulcher, chipper. • Appoint one individual with the responsibility to co‐ordinate wildland firefighting activities through equipment acquisition and maintenance, and training coordination and supervision of firefighters. • Obtain a Structural Protection Unit capable of deployment on up to three buildings at once. • Work with the appropriate agencies to upgrade existing airstrips located in the XGCA that have been identified to date (Chilko and Nemiah) to provide a better alternative for emergency evacuation and address the population increases during the season where there is the most risk for wildfires in the area. • Fuel modification and other works identified should be carried out on the areas listed in Appendix 1 to help minimize the potential impact of a forest fire on structures. • Obtain appropriate insurance coverage for all Xeni Gwet’in homes and public assets

• Ensure that appropriate partner agencies have a copy of the Community Wildfire Protection Plan.

Mid to Long‐term Measures • Coordinate FireSmart practices with wilderness lodgesand residents in the area. Establish a fire safety committee for XGCA. • Cut Fire Breaks or reduce fuel loads around the key cultural sites outside Nemiah Valley. • Undertake road side thinning along the road from Nemiah through to the Stone reserve and from the north Chilko Lake through to the highway. • Salvage dead pine in high lightening strike areas off reserve where feasible • Re‐introduce fire and identify areas where natural fires will be allowed to burn

These ideas are more comprehensive than those suggested by the community but they fairly consistent (see Box 5)

Box 5: Community Ideas for Wildfire Protection

Comm u nity Ideas – Wild Fire Protection 1. Fire safety education and education about emergency evacuation procedures for community members 2. More investment in silviculture in the area for spacing, thinning and controlled burning

3. Cut fireguards and cutting of beetle kill wood around the settlement areas in reserves

4. Establish a local fire crew, provide equipment and contact list and have fire kits (hoses, axes, etc.) at all fire hydrants in the community 5. Restrict forest fire suppression in select (high risk) areas that don’t endanger life or property 6. Harvest beetle kill wood and remove it. 7. Remove fire hazards (dead trees, glass, oil etc.) from around houses

Objective #2. Protect Residents and Key Cultural Sites from Floods in the XGCA Short‐term • Develop a Flood Protection Plan for high risk areas near homes, roads and cultural sites • Contact Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium to undertake hydrological modeling in area to determine long‐term flood risk in the area. • Ensure that appropriate partner agencies have a copy of the Flood Protection Plan.

Mid to Long‐term • Monitor key lake, river and stream levels • Acquire flood protection supplies and equipment from partnering agencies as needed.

8.3. Water Supply Protection and Conservation

Water is crucial to life and healthy potable water is crucial to good health. The Xeni Gwet’in and most other residents of the XGCA enjoy excellent water resources. To maintain secure sufficient volumes of quality water the follow recommendations are made:

Objective #1. Protect Key Potable Water Sources Short‐term87 • Educate the Xeni Gwet’in members about water protection (disposal of toxic chemicals, protection from livestock, water quality standards) • Prohibit industrial logging and mining in the XGCA (no Prosperity Mine) • Fence streams from cattle and designate cattle watering areas • Establish a recycling depot in Nemiah for toxic chemicals • Remove garbage that may leach toxic chemicals into water system (old cars, appliances, drums of chemicals, etc.) • Clean up debris and garbage from streams • Collect baseline data for key glaciers and rivers, lakes & aquifers (Klokon) in the XGCA • Establish weather stations or rainfall monitoring equipment in several key locations in the XGCA • Continue water quality monitoring on key lakes, rivers, streams and aquifers • Begin water flow and temperature monitoring beyond the Chilko and Taseko rivers • Begin glacier monitoring • Monitor the water chemistry of Cheolquoit Lake (potential test case)

Mid to Long‐term • Coordinate water protection protocols with all wilderness lodges in the XGCA ensuring all parties meet the Canadian Water Quality Standards.

Objective #2. Conserve Potable Water Short‐term • Educate the Xeni Gwet’in members about water conservation measures (reduced usage techniques) • Repair pipe, faucet and toilet leaks • Install low flow faucets and toilet tank boosters

Mid to Long‐term • Install rainfall collectors and cisterns, at least for non‐potable uses. • Examine the need for water reservoirs to store peak flows for summer

These ideas are more comprehensive than those suggested by the community but they are fairly consistent (Box 6). A recurring action item put forward by the community was to restrict the industrial logging and mining in the XGCA. Prosperity Mine, in particular, was seen as a significant threat to the water quality of the area.

Box 6: Community Ideas for Water Conservation and Protection

Community Ideas – Water Conservation and Protection

87 Ma1. nyProhibit industrial mining (Pr of these recommendations are courtesy of Cariboo Enviroteosperity Mine) and logging ch. 2. More efficient water use. 3. Investigate alternate wells for community or sub‐divisions 64 4. Clean up streams of debris and beaver dams. Trap beaver. 5. Protect water from litter and pollution. Recycle. Don’t dump oil and anti‐freeze on ground. 8.4. Food Supply Protection and Diversification

Wild foods are crucial to the health and the culture of the Xeni Gwet’in community but there is also realization that more cultivated foods (rather than store bought foods) could also enrich the community and make it more resilient to climate change.

Objective #2. Conserve and Use Wild Food Sources • Preserve biodiversity (see biodiversity) • Continue to subsistence hunt, fish and collect (but take only what you need) (ongoing) • Continue to educate youth about hunting, fishing and collecting (ongoing) • Transplant or cultivate traditional plant foods/medicines that are stressed to new more hospitable areas of the XGCA (long‐term)

Objective #2. Increase Development and Diet Cultivated Food Sources • Examine interest in raising cattle and poultry for sustenance (short‐term) • Investigate community/household slaughter options (short‐term) • Host workshop to educate Xeni Gwet’in members on how to start gardens and green houses (short‐term) • Establish clear protocols for sustainable range management with stakeholders (ongoing) • Explore low impact irrigation system to produce more hay (mid‐term) • Explore opportunities for new crops that are suitable to warmer climate and wildlife (mid‐ term)

Objective #3. Increase Preservation of Wild and Cultivated Foods • Host workshops to educate and encourage Xeni Gwet’in members to start canning, drying and using root cellars

Box 7: Community Ideas for Food Diversification

Community Ideas – Food Diversification 1. Hunt, fish, trap and collect wild roots and berries 2. Prohibit industrial mining and logging 3. Raise and butcher cows and chickens for meat 4. More gardening and greenhouses 5. Preserve/can more berries, fish, meat and vegetables 6. Bring back root cellars 7. Put in proper irrigation systems for hay production 8. More education for growing vegetables

8.5. Shelter and Infrastructure Protection

Shelter and infrastructure are most at risk from wildfires and floods and from mould and mildew issues. Section XX (Health and Safety) discusses wild fire and flood protection strategies at length

65 so no further elaboration is required. Mould and mildew problems are addressed in Objective 2 below.

Objective #1. Protect Shelter and Infrastructure • See Health and Safety recommendations

Objective #2. Reduce risk of Mould, Mildew and Rot Short‐term • Continue monitor for mould, mildew and r ot on a regular basis and apply housing renovation funds where available (short‐term) • Educate householders about how to monitor for mould, mildew and rot, how to ventilate their homes properly and how fix minor leaks (short‐term)

Mid to Long‐term • Examine the need to redesign new housing for wetter and milder winters (e.g. better ventilation systems, better exterior drainage and wider roof overhangs) (long‐term)

8.6. Energy Supply Protection, Conservation and Diversification

Energy systems are most at risk from wildfires and floods. Section 8.2 (Health and Safety) discusses wild fire and flood protection strategies at some length so no further elaboration is required. Energy conservation and diversification are discussed in objectives 2 and 3.

Objective #1. Protect Existing Energy Sources • See Health and Safety recommendations

Objective #2. Strengthen Energy Conservation Short‐term • Inspect Xeni Gwet’in housing a nd public b uilding for dr afts and install weather stripping where necessary • Inspect Xeni Gwet’in housing and public buildings for insulation quality and install n ew insulation where necessary • Where relevant replace incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs and conventional power bars with smart power bars • Where feasible install root cellars or cold rooms to supplement refrigeration

Mid to Long‐term • Where feasible replace old fridges and stoves with energy smart ones

Objective #3 Continue Energy Diversification Short‐term • Continue to expand the hybrid systems (particularly the solar aspect) where cost effective • Explore mini‐wind units for hybrid systems • Continue to pursue mini‐hydro development but test for sensitivity to increased summer drought conditions.

Mid to Long‐term

• Explore other renewable energy supply options such as wind, solar, geothermal and linking into the BC hydro grid system. • Explore a district biomass heating system or a geothermal system for Xeni Gwet’in public buildings and the school • Explore the development of wind energy at the boundary of the XGCA for sale into the BChydro grid

Box 8: Community Ideas for Energy Diversification

Community Ideas – Energy Diversification 1. More solar panels for hybrid systems

2. Wind power on reserve

3. Wind power near boundary of XGCA to sell into BCHydro grid

8.7. Livelihood Diversification

Moving the Xeni Gwet’in toward greater economic diversification will increase the level of wealth in the community, reduce dependence on federal government transfers, and increase the level of autonomy of the community has to make its own decisions. Moreover, if this diversification is done in a sustainable manner and it is planned with future climate changes in mind, it will strengthen community resilience. The three sectors that show particular promise for sustainable development are nature‐based aboriginal tourism, natural or organic based agriculture and eco‐forestry. These sectors should be developed with potential climate change impacts in mind. There may also be other enterprise opportunities arising out of housing and infrastructure upgrades, fire and flood protection, water conservation and biodiversity protection (adaptive enterprise development).

Objective #1. Develop Naturebased Aboriginal Tourism Short‐term • Continue access management planning and measures • Integrate cultural conservation and tourism development plans into the wild fire protection plan and measures • Integrate tourism development plans into the community emergency evacuation plans • Pursuekey key key airstrip improvements • Investigate business and property insurance for on and off‐reserve tourism enterprises

Mid to Long‐term • Develop and market non‐fishing based products if fish stocks continue to decline • Expand spring and fall shoulder season products if climate permits • See biodiversity section for more recommendations

Objective #2. Develop Ecoforestry and Wood Prod ucts Short‐term • Integrate wild fire protection planning and measures into eco‐forestry development planning • Undertake eco‐forestry plan with new climate projections in mind • Explore viability of FSC certification for forest and wood products

• Re‐introduce fire and allow natural fires in select areas • Explore business opportunities identified in Xeni Gwet’in Fibre Needs Analysis

Mid to Long‐term • Plant species mixes (in particular more Douglas‐fir) with shelter to protect from frost • Preserve and encourage aspen and other deciduous species • See biodiversity section for more recommendations

Objective #3. Develop Natural/Organic Agriculture Short‐term • Assess feasibility of organic/natural beef business • Undertake an ecosystem‐based plan for agriculture and tie in with tourism plans • Integrate agriculture development plans into the wild fire protection plan and flood protection plan • Investigate low impact irrigations options for hay production and other crops • Explore range land management solutions to over grazing • Integrate agriculture development plans into the community emergency evacuation plan, particularly livestock evacuation contingencies

Mid to Long‐term • Investigate new cultivation opportunities, particularly drought resistant varieties and water conservation techniques to cope with warmer and drier summers • Control Invasive (non‐native) species as grasslands expand, especially near roadsides. • Investigate business and property insurance for on and off‐reserve agricultural enterprises

Objective #4. Develop Other Adaptive Enterprise Opportunities • Explore enterprise opportunities arising out of other adaptation measures (water, energy, food, biodiversity, shelter and infrastructure etc.)

8.8. Good Governance

Good governance in the face of climate change is about building community resilience towards climate impacts. The Xeni Gwet’in government is the key mobilizer in this task and has a lead role in all of the recommendations of this report, whether it be protecting XGCA biodiversity, managing health and safety, protecting community infrastructure and housing, diversifying the local economy or controlling access management into the XGCA. These things will not happen without its direction. However, it cannot undertake all of these responsibilities alone, so it is important that it consult with the Xeni Gwet’in members and other residents of the region regarding its adaptation plans to get buy‐in and partnerships wherever possible to see its plans realized.

Objective #1. Incorporate Climate Adaptation Strategies into Local Governance Objectives Short‐term • Inform and consult with Xeni Gwet’in population re adaptation plans • Review priorities and determine what measures it will implement first • Apply for Phase II funding to begin implementing the Adaptation Strategy • Contact key regional, provincial and federal government to inform about adaptation plans and solicit resources and expertise to implement

Mid to Long‐termto Long‐term • Integrate climate adaptation objectives into all local government planning • Monitor climate changes and review priorities as necessary

8.9. Cultural Preservation

Protecting the culture of the Xeni Gwet’in people is key to protecting the land and visa versa. Through the wisdom and the knowledge of the elders, the Xeni Gwet’in know‐how to live off and care for the land. This wisdom protects the land. At the same time, the health of the Xeni Gwet’in traditional culture is closely linked to the health of the land, since the Xeni Gwet’in culture is closely tied to their hunting, fishing and collecting. Protecting the Xeni Gwet’in culture therefore involves retaining use and knowledge of the Chilcotin language and customs but it also involves protecting the health of the XGCA ecosystem.

Objective #1. Protect the Xeni Gwet’in Culture • Continue to identify and protect cultural assets in the XGCA • Integrate the protection of cultural sites into wild fire protection plan and flood protection plan and access management plan • See biodiversity section for more recommendations

Box 9: Community Ideas for Cultural Protection :

Community Ideas – Cultural Protection 1. Protect the land and it will protect the people 2. More cultural education of youth by elders and parents at home

3. More speaking to youth in our language by parents and elders at home and at school

4. More living off the land (hunting, fishing and collecting) and learning traditional ways from elders 5. Acknowledge and celebrate the elders

6. More community gatherings, potlucks and sweat lodges

Objective #2. Celebrate the Xeni Gwet’in Culture • Encourage elders and parents to speak Chilcotin to the children at home. • Continue to teach children about hunting, fishing, collecting and living from the land • Continue to support Chilcotin studies in school and Culture Day • Continue to support the traditional gatherings, healing ceremonies and sweats

Biodiversity Protection and Conservation

Adaptation Actions Priority88 Responsibility Timeframe Funding Objective 89 Required • Limit fragmentation of the XGCA area by roads, 1 Council Ongoing Maintain the clearcuts, mines and real estate development XGCA as an intact • Deactivate/de‐commission unnecessary roads 1 Council Short‐term ecosystem • Adopt an ecosystem‐based planning approach to all land use in the XGCA 1 Council Ongoing • Prohibit industrial logging and forestry in the area (ongoing) • Adopt Xeni Gwet’in Proposed Access 1 Council & Access Mgt Ongoing Management Plan Committee • Establish baseline indicator data for biodiversity in the XGCA (short‐term) 1 Science Committee Short‐term • Obtain recognition from local to international level (e.g. IUCN) of the unique biodiversity qualities of the XGCA • Undertake a range management plan and 1 Nemiah Stockman’s Short‐term Conserve Wildlife establish clear protocols for sustainable range Association and Wild Horses management with stakeholders in the XGCA • Integrate natural and prescribed burns into Fire Protection Short‐term the Wild Fire Protection Plan‐ to restore 1 Committee grassland and mixed forest/grassland ecosystems • Integrate peat preservation into Wild Fire Fire Protection Short‐term Protection Plan (ensure peat meadow fires are 1 Committee extinguished after wildfires ) • Monitor indicator wildlife stocks and limit Fish & Wildlife Short‐term commercial, recreational and subsistence 2 Committee Ongoing hunting if stocks decline • Manage wildlife species that are traditional Fish & Wildlife Long‐term foods such as moose and deer with a priority 4 Committee for Xeni subsistence first Short‐term • Habitat enhancement for grizzly, moose, big 2 Fish & Wildlife horn sheep and Whitebark to retain certain Committee

• Restrict hunting during mating season 1 Fish & Wildlife • Keep domestic horses off wild horse and cattle Committee range unless under permit 2 Nemiah Stockman’s Short‐term • Undertake wild horse habitat mapping Association • Catch wild horses regularly and sell them for 1 Nemiah Stockman’s stock (do not kill) Association • Protect migratory and resident birds and 2 Fish & Wildlife species at risk Committee • Ensure protection of special natural features and specialized wildlife and fish habitats 2 Fish & Wildlife • Manage trails, campgrounds and residences to Committee minimize conflicts with grizzly and black 2 Fish & Wildlife bears Committee • Monitor fish stocks and limit commercial, 1 Fish & Wildlife Short‐term Conserve Fish recreational and subsistence fishing if stocks Committee Stocks continue to decline • Limit fish catches to large fish only 1 Fish & Wildlife Short‐term • Transplant or re‐introduce fish stocks to new 3 Committee or extirpated lakes or streams Fish & Wildlife Mid‐term • Preserve pristine watersheds from 1 Committee unsustainable development (e.g. Prosperity Council Short‐term Mine) • Implement low impact irrigation practices 3 Nemiah Stockman’s Short‐term (short‐term) Association • Dam and store water at Abelachez Lake to release water during the late summer months 4 Fish & Wildlife Mid to Long‐ if necessary Committee term • Improve fish passages by clearing culverts and streams of debris and beaver dams 1 Fish & Wildlife Short‐term • Encourage low impact forestry (if forestry is Committee pursued) to protect riparian areas 1 Council Short‐term • Encourage low impact ranching (fence cattle, control runoff and designate watering areas) 1 Council Short‐term to protect riparian areas. Nemiah creek is a particular concern.

• Clean or install new gravels at Nemiah Creek 1 Fish & Wildlife Short‐term (short‐term) Committee • Encourage riparian planting where needed 4 Fish & Wildlife Mid to Long‐

(mid to long‐term) Committee term

NOTE See Water Protection and Conservation for more recommendations

• Transplant traditional food/medicine plants Preserve Wild that require moist to wet habitats (wild potato, 1 Elders Mid to Long‐ Plants & the glacier lily, bear tooth, trapper tea, Indian term Habitats in the hellebore and raspberry) (mid to long‐term). XGCA Assist migration as habitats shrink or move.

Health and Safety Enhancements

Adaptation Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding Objective Required • Deliver FireSmart hand‐outs to all households 1 Fire Protection Short‐term Protect Residents to encourage FireSmart landscaping for Committee and Key Cultural individual residences. Sites from Wild • Develop and pass a Band Council Resolution, Fires in the XGCA with Band policy implemented, requiring that 1 Council Short‐term all future home construction, modifications, and renovations conform to FireSmart standards. • Work closely with the appropriate agencies to carry out the necessary repairs to the mesh 1 Council Short‐term around the waste disposal pit and clear the forested area at least 30 metres around the entire perimeter. • Acquire sufficient wildland firefighting 1 Fire Protection Short‐term equipment for 10 firefighters. Committee • Acquire sufficient equipment to manage and 1 Fire Protection Short‐term minimize wildfire threat i.e. mulcher, chipper. Committee • Appoint one individual with the responsibility to co‐ordinate wildland firefighting activities 1 Council Short‐term through equipment acquisition and maintenance, and training coordination and supervision of firefighters. 1 Council Short‐term

• Obtain a Structural Protection Unit capable of deployment on up to three buildings at once. • Work with the appropriate agencies to 1 Council Short‐term upgrade existing airstrips located in the XGCA that have been identified to date (Chilko and Nemiah). 1 Fire Protection Short‐term • Fuel modification and other works identified Committee should be carried out on the areas listed in Appendix 1. 1 Fire Protection Short‐term • Obtain appropriate insurance coverage for all Committee Xeni Gwet’in homes and public assets • Ensure that appropriate partner agencies have 1 Council Short‐term a copy of the Community Wildfire Protection Plan. 1 • Coordinate FireSmart practices with resorts Council Short‐term and residents in the area. Establish a fire safety committee for XGCA. 2 Fire Protection Mid to Long‐ • Cut Fire Breaks or reduce fuel loads around the Committee term key cultural sites outside Nemiah Valley. 2 Fire Protection Mid to Long‐ • Undertake road side thinning along the road Committee term from Nemiah through to the Stone reserve and

from the north Chilko Lake through to the 3 Fire Protection Mid to Long‐ highway. Committee term • Salvage dead pine in high lightening strike

areas off reserve where feasible 2 Fire Protection Mid to Long‐ • Re‐introduce fire and identify areas where Committee term natural fires will be allowed to burn • Develop a Flood Protection Plan for high risk 2 ? Short‐term Protect Residents areas near homes, roads and cultural sites and Key Cultural • Contact Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium to 4 Council/Science Mid‐term Sites from Floods undertake hydrological modeling in area to Committee in the XGCA determine long‐term flood risk in the area. • Ensure that appropriate partner agencies have 3 Council Short‐term a copy of the Flood Protection Plan. • Monitor key lake, river and stream levels 2 Fish & Wildlife Short‐term • Acquire flood protection supplies and Committee equipment from partnering agencies as 3 Health Dept Mid‐term needed.

Water Supply Protection and Conservation

Adaptation Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding Required Objective • Educate the Xeni Gwet’in members about 1 Health Dept Short‐term Protect Key water protection (disposal of toxic chemicals, Potable Water protection from livestock, water quality Sources standards) • Prohibit industrial logging and mining in the 1 Council Short‐term XGCA (no Prosperity Mine) • Fence streams from cattle and designate cattle watering areas 2 Nemiah Stockman’s Short‐term • Establish a recycling depot in Nemiah for toxic Association chemicals 2 Recycling Committee Short‐term • Remove garbage that may leach toxic chemicals into water system (old cars, 1 Recycling Committee Short‐term appliances, drums of chemicals, etc.) Fish & • Clean up debris and garbage from streams 1 Wildlife/Recycling Short‐term • Collect baseline data for key glaciers and 1 Watershed Short‐term rivers, lakes & aquifers (Klokon) in the XGCA Committee • Establish weather stations or rainfall monitoring equipment in several key locations 3 Watershed Short‐term in the XGCA Committee • Continue water quality monitoring on key 1 Watershed Short‐term lakes, rivers, streams and aquifers Committee 2 Watershed Short‐term • Begin water flow and temperature monitoring Committee beyond the Chilko and Taseko rivers 3 Watershed Short‐term • Begin glacier monitoring Committee • Monitor the water chemistry of Cheolquoit 3 Watershed Short‐term Lake (potential test case) Committee • Coordinate water protection protocols with all 2 Watershed Short‐term wilderness lodges in the XGCA ensuring all Committee parties meet the Canadian Water Quality Standards.

• Educate the Xeni Gwet’in members about 1 Health Dept Short‐term Conserve Potable water conservation measures (reduced usage Water techniques) • Repair pipe, faucet and toilet leaks 3 Housing Dept Short‐term • Install low flow faucets and toilet tank 3 Housing Dept Short‐term boosters • Install rainfall collectors and cisterns, at least 3 Housing Dept Mid‐term for non‐potable uses. • Examine the need for water reservoirs to store 5 Watershed Long‐term peak flows for summer Committee

Food Supply Protection and Diversification

Adaptation Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding Required Objective • Preserve biodiversity (see biodiversity) Conserve and Use • Encourage subsistence hunt, fish and collect 1 Fish & Wildlife Ongoing Wild Food Sources (but take only what you need) Committee • Continue to educate youth about hunting, 1 Fish & Wildlife Ongoing fishing and collecting (ongoing) Committee • Transplant or cultivate traditional plant foods/medicines that are stressed to new 2 ? Mid to Long‐ more hospitable areas of the XGCA (long‐term) term • Examine interest in raising cattle and poultry 2 Nemiah Stockman’s Short‐term Increase for sustenance Assoc./ Health Dept Development and • Investigate community/household slaughter 3 Nemiah Stockman’s Short‐term Diet Cultivated options Assoc./ Health Dept Food Sources • Host workshop to educate Xeni Gwet’in members on how to start gardens and green 1 Health Dept Short‐term houses • Establish clear protocols for sustainable range 1 Nemiah Stockman’s Short‐term management with stakeholders Assoc • Explore low impact irrigation system to 3 Nemiah Stockman’s Mid‐term produce more hay Assoc • Explore opportunities for new crops that are 3 Econ Dev Mid‐term

suitable to warmer climate and wildlife • Host workshops to educate and encourage Increase Xeni Gwet’in members to start canning, 1 Health Dept Short‐term Preservation of drying and using root cellars Wild and Cultivated Foods

Shelter and Infrastructure Protection

Adaptation Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding Required Objective • See Health and Safety recommendations Protect Shelter and Infrastructure • Continue monitor for mould, mildew and 1 Housing Dept Short‐term Reduce risk of rot on a regular basis and apply housing Mould, Mildew renovation funds where available and Rot • Educate householders about how to 2 Housing Dept Short‐term monitor for mould, mildew and rot, how to ventilate their homes properly and how fix minor leaks • Examine the need to redesign new housing for wetter and milder winters (e.g. better 4 Housing Dept Mid to Long‐ ventilation systems, better exterior term drainage and wider roof overhangs) (long‐ term)

Energy Supply Protection, Conservation and Diversification

Adaptation Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding Required Objective

• See Health and Safety recommendations Protect Existing Energy Sources • Inspect Xeni Gwet’in housing and public Housing Dept Strengthen buildings for drafts and install weather 1 Short‐term Energy stripping where necessary Conservation • Inspect Xeni Gwet’in housing and public buildings for insulation quality and install 2 Housing Dept Short‐term new insulation where necessary • Where relevant replace incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent bulbs and 1 Housing Dept Short‐term conventional power bars with smart power bars • Where feasible install root cellars or cold rooms to supplement refrigeration 3 Health Dept Mid–term • Where feasible replace old fridges and stoves with energy smart ones 4 Housing Dept Mid‐term

• Continue to expand the hybrid systems 1 Xeni Gwet’in Short‐term Continue Energy (particularly the solar aspect) where cost Diversification effective • Explore mini‐wind units for hybrid systems 2 XG Short‐term • Continue to pursue mini‐hydro development but test for sensitivity to increased summer 1 XG Short‐term drought conditions. • Explore other renewable energy supply options such as wind, solar, geothermal and 1 XG/Econ Dev linking into the BC hydro grid system. Short‐term • Explore a district biomass heating system or a XG/Econ Dev geothermal system for Xeni Gwet’in public 1 Short‐term buildings and the school • Explore the development of wind energy at the boundary of the XGCA for sale into the 2 XG/Econ Dev Mid‐term BChydro grid

Livelihood Diversification

Adaptation Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding Required Objective • Continue access management planning and 1 Access Mgt Short‐term Develop Nature‐ measures Committee based Aboriginal • Integrate cultural conservation and tourism Tourism development plans into the wild fire 1 Fire Protection Short‐term protection plan and measures Committee • Integrate tourism development plans into the 1 Health Dept Short‐term community emergency evacuation plans • Pursue airstrip improvements 1 XG/Econ Dev Short‐term • Investigate business and property insurance for on and off‐reserve tourism enterprises 2 Econ Dev Short‐term • Develop and market non‐fishing based products if fish stocks continue to decline 2 Econ Dev Mid‐term • Expand spring and fall shoulder season products if climate permits 3 Econ Dev Mid‐term • See biodiversity section for more recommendations • Integrate wild fire protection planning and 1 Econ Dev Short‐term Develop Eco‐ measures into eco‐forestry development forestry and planning Wood Products • Undertake eco‐forestry plan with new climate 1 Econ Dev Short‐term projections in mind • Explore viability of FSC certification for forest 2 Econ Dev Short‐term and wood products • Re‐introduce fire and allow natural fires in 1 Fire Protection Short‐term select areas Committee • Explore business opportunities identified in 2 Mid to Long‐ Xeni Gwet’in Fibre Needs Analysis Econ Dev term • Plant species mixes (in particular more Douglas‐fir) with shelter to protect from frost 4 Econ Dev Mid to Long‐ • Preserve and encourage aspen and other term deciduous species • See biodiversity section for more 4 Econ Dev Mid to Long‐ recommendations term

• Assess feasibility of organic/natural beef 1 Econ Dev Short‐term Develop business

Natural/Organic • Undertake an ecosystem‐based plan for Agriculture agriculture and tie in with tourism plans 1 Econ Dev Short‐term • Integrate agriculture development plans into the wild fire protection plan and flood 2 Fire Protection Short‐term protection plan Committee • Investigate low impact irrigations options for hay production and other crops 3 Nemiah Stockman’s Short‐term • Explore range land management solutions to Committee over grazing 1 Nemiah Stockman’s • Integrate agriculture development plans into Committee the community emergency evacuation plan, 2 Health Dept/Nemiah Short‐term particularly livestock evacuation contingencies Stockman’s Assoc • Investigate new cultivation opportunities, particularly drought resistant varieties and Econ Dev water conservation techniques to cope with 2 Mid to Long‐ warmer and drier summers term • Control Invasive (non‐native) species as grasslands expand, especially near roadsides. Nemiah Stockman’s • Investigate business and property insurance 2 Committee Mid to Long‐ for on and off‐reserve agricultural enterprises term Econ Dev 2 Mid ‐term • Explore enterprise opportunities arising out of Develop Other other adaptation measures (water, energy, 2 Econ Dev Short‐term Adaptive food, biodiversity, shelter and infrastructure Enterprise etc.) Opportunities

Good Governance

Adaptation Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding Objective Required • Inform and consult with Xeni Gwet’in 1 Council Short‐term Incorporate population re adaptation plans Climate • Review priorities and determine what 1 Council Short‐term measures it will implement first

Adaptation • Apply for Phase II funding to begin 1 Econ Dev Short‐term Strategies into implementing the Adaptation Strategy Local Governance • Contact key regional, provincial and federal 2 Council Short‐term Objectives government to inform about adaptation plans and solicit resources and expertise to implement • Integrate climate adaptation objectives into all 2 Band Mgr Short‐term local government planning • Monitor climate changes and review priorities 2 Council & Mid to Long‐ as necessary Committees term

Cultural Preservation

Adaptation Actions Priority Responsibility Timeframe Funding Objective Required • Continue to identify and protect cultural assets 1 ? Short‐term Protect the Xeni in the XGCA Gwet’in Culture • Integrate the protection of cultural sites into 1 Fire Protection Short‐term wild fire protection plan and flood protection Committee plan and access management plan • See biodiversity section for more recommendations

• Encourage elders and parents to speak 1 ? Ongoing Celebrate the Chilcotin to the children at home. Xeni Gwet’in • Continue to teach children about hunting, 1 ? Ongoing Culture fishing, collecting and living from the land • Continue to support Chilcotin studies in school 1 Ongoing and Culture Day • Continue to support the traditional gatherings, 1 ? Ongoing healing ceremonies and sweats

REFERENCES

Allen, Dr. Diana M. (2009). Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater in BC. In Innovation – Journal of the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of BC. May/June 2009.

Bush, A., and Pollock, T. (2009) Personal Communication (Nov. 2009).

Campbell. E., S. Saunders, D. MacKillop and S. Haeussler. 2009. Towards a framework for operational indicators of ecological resilience. Draft Report. BC Min For. 75pp.

CARE 2009, Climate Vulnerability & Capacity Analysis Handbook.

Cariboo Envirotech Ltd. 2006. The 2006 Fish and Fish Habitat Training Program on Nemaia Creek WSC 150‐335700‐98700. Report prepared for the Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Government.

CBC. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. December 9, 2009. Sockeye Decline Linked to Climate Change. Change in ocean conditions in 2007 likely behind mass death in stocks. URL Site: http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british‐columbia/story/2009/12/09/bc‐scientists‐ sockeye‐climate‐change.html

Cheung, William, Vicky Lam, Jorge Sarmiento, Kelly Kearney, Reg Watson and Daniel Pauly. The capacity and likelihood of climate change adaptation in the world's fisheries. Fish and Fisheries, February 13, 2008.

Cohen, S. and Kulkarni, T., 2001. Water Management & Climate Change in the Okanagan Basin, Environment Canada/University of British Columbia, Vancouver BC.

Cox, S. 2000. Management of Whitebark pine (pinus albicaulis) in North American Forests and National Parks. http://www.landscapeimagery.com/whitebark.html

Dawson, R., A.T. Werner, T.Q. Murdock, (2008): Preliminary Analysis of Climate Change in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin Area of British Columbia. Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria BC, 49 pp.

Debeer, C.M. and Sharp, M.J., 2007. Recent changes in glacier area and volume within the southern Canadian Cordillera. Annals of Glaciology, 46: 215‐221.

Dyurgerov, M.B. and McCabe, G.J., 2006. Associations between accelerated glacier mass wastage and increased summer temperature in coastal regions. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, 38(2): 190‐197.

Ecolibrio 2009. The Xeni Gwet’in Comprehensive Development Plan 2009.

Ecolibrio (2009). Xeni Gwet’in Comprehensive Tourism Development Strategy.

FBC. Fraser Basin Council. 2009 State of the Fraser Basin Report: Sustainability Snapshot 4 The Many faces of Sustainability. URL Site: http://www.fraserbasin.bc.ca/publications/documents/2009_SOFB_Report_SS4.pd

FishWizard. URL Site: http://www.fishwizard.com/

Government of Canada. Canada’s Action on Climate Change. URL Site: http://www.climatechange.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=E18C8F2D‐1/

Hamann, A., and T.L. Wang. 2006. Potential effects of climate change on tree species and ecosystem distribution in British Columbia. Ecology 87:2773‐2786.

Hammond, H., Bradley, T. ad Mackenzie, E. 2004. Toward Culturally and Ecologically Sustainable Land Use in the Chilko River Watershed.

Hamlet, A.F. and Lettenmaier, D.P., 1999b. Effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Columbia River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35(6): 1597‐1623.

ICIMOD (International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development), 2009. Local Responses to Too Much and Too Little Water in the Greater Himalayan Region.

IPPC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) (2000) IPCC Special Report: Emissions Scenarios, 27pp.

IPPC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change, Annex I., M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp.

IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. URL Site: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/technical‐papers/climate‐change‐water‐en.pdf

IPCC². Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2007. Synthesis Report. URL Site: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment‐report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf

IPCC³. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The IPCC Report on Global Warming Localizing a Global Story. URL Site: http://ipccinfo.com/west.php#Ag

IUCN. 2009. International Union for the Conservation of Nature. Press Release December 14, 2009. Species on climate change hit list named. URL Site: http://www.iucnredlist.org/news/climate‐change‐species‐hit‐list

Kaser, G., Cogley, J.G., Dyurgerov, M.B., Meier, M.F. and Ohmura, A., 2006. Mass balance of glaciers and ice caps: Consensus estimates for 1961‐2004. Geophysical Research Letters, 33(L19501): 1‐5.

Kamloops Future Forest Strategy. 2009. Final Report. http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hcp/ffs/kamloopsFFS.htm

Kamloops Future Forest Strategy‐ Ecological Summary and Narratives. 2009. http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hcp/ffs/kamloopsFFS.htm

Klokon Groundwater Consulting Ltd. (2008). Report of Findings: Xeni Gwet’in First Nation, Nemiah Valley, BC. Lohibee IR3 Water System Upgrade, CPMS #7359. Test drilling – Groundwater Feasibility Study (GFS) Progress Report.

Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. and Dalezios, N.R., 2004. Climate change implications on flood response of a mountainous watershed. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution: Focus, 4: 331‐347.

Loukas, A., Lampros, V. and Dalezios, N.R., 2002a. Potential climate change impacts on flood producing mechanisms in southern British Columbia, Canada using the CGCMA1 simulation results. Journal of Hydrology, 259: 163‐188.

Loukas, A., Vasiliades, L. and Dalezios, N.R., 2002b. Potential climate change impacts on flood producing mechanisms in southern British Columbia, Canada using the CGCMA1 simulation results. Journal of Hydrology, 259: 163‐188.19

Luckman, B.H., Harding, K.A. and Hamilton, J.P., 1987. Recent glacier advances in the Premier Range, British Columbia. Journal of Earth Sciences, 24: 1149‐1161.

Mylnowski, T. 2009. Xeni Gwet'in Climate Change Adaptation Program. Recent and Project Climate Trends. Prepared for the Xeni Gwet’in First Nations Government.

Menounos, B. and Wheate, R., 2007. State and fate of Western Canadian glaciers, Conference, Ministry of the Environment, Victoria, BC.

Merritt, W.S. et al., 2006. Hydrologic response to scenarios of climate change in sub watersheds of the Okanagan basin, British Columbia. Journal of Hydrology, 326: 79‐108.

Morrison, J., Quick, M.C. and Foreman, M.G.G., 2002. Climate change in the Fraser River watershed: flow and temperature projections. Journal of Hydrology, 263: 230‐244.

Nelitz¹, M., and M. Porter. 2009a. A future outlook on the effects of climate change on Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) habitats in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd. for Fraser Salmon and Watersheds Program, B.C. Ministry of Environment, and Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council. URL Site: http://www.thinksalmon.com/reports/ChinookHabitatOutlook_090314.pdf

Nelitz², M. and M. Porter. 2009b. A future outlook on the effects of climate change on Coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) habitats in the Cariboo‐ Chilcotin. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd. for Fraser Salmon and Watersheds Program, B.C. Ministry of Environment, and Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council. URL Site: http://www.thinksalmon.com/reports/CohoHabitatOutlook_090314.pdf

Nelitz³, M. and M. Porter. 2009c. A future outlook on the effects of climate change on bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) habitats in the Cariboo‐ Chilcotin. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd. for Fraser Salmon and Watersheds Program, B.C. Ministry of Environment, and Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council. URL Site: http://www.thinksalmon.com/reports/BullTroutHabitatOutlook_090314.pdf

Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium (PCIC), 2008. Preliminary Analysis of Climate Change in the Cariboo‐Chilcotin Area of British Columbia. R.J. Dawson (Ministry of Agriculture and Lands), A.T. Werner and T.Q. Murdock (PCIC).

Parker, T.J., K. M. Clancy and R.L. Mathiasen. 2006. Interaction among fire, insects and pathogens in coniferous forests of the interior western United States and Canada. Review Article. Agriculture and Forest Entomolgy. 8: 167‐189. Parish, R., R. Coupe, and D. Lloyd. 1996. Plants of Southern Interior of British Columbia. BC Min For. 461pp.

PICES. North Pacific Marine Science Organization. Effects of Climate Change on the World’s Oceans. International Symposium May 19‐23, 2008. Gijon, Spain. Symposium Proceedings. URL Site: http://www.pices.int/meetings/international_symposia/2008_symposia/Climate_change/c limate_background_3.aspx

Powell, G.W. 2005. A Regional profile of non‐timber forest products being harvested from the Criboo‐Chilcotin, British Columba. Center for Non‐timber Resources, Royal Roads University, Victoria, BC. 48pp.

PFRCC. Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council. Adapting to Change: Managing Fraser sockeye in the face of declining productivity and increasing uncertainty. Statement from Think Tank of Scientists. December 9. 2009. URL Site: http://www.fish.bc.ca/files/FraserSockeyeThinkTankStatement.pdf

PFRCC¹. Pacific Fisheries Resource Conservation Council. Helping Pacific Salmon Survive the Impact of Climate Change on Freshwater Habitats. Pursuing Proactive and Reactive Adaptation Strategies. Prepared by ESSA Technologies Ltd. September 2007. URL Site: http://www.fish.bc.ca/files/PFRCC‐ClimateChange‐Adaptation.pdf

Parson, E.A. et al., 2001b. Chapter 9: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the Pacific Northwest. In: National Assessment Synthesis Team (Editor), Climate Change Impacts on the United States The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change. US Global Change Research Program.

Province of British Columbia. Environmental Trends in British Columbia: 2007. Climate Change. URL Site: http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/soe/et07/04_climate_change/technical_paper/climate_change.p df

Rood, Kenneth M. (Northwest Hydraulic Consultants Ltd.), and Hamilton, Roy E. (Independent Consultant), (1995). Hydrology and Water Use for Salmon Streams in the Chilcotin Habitat Management Area, British Columbia. Fraser River Action Plan. Department of Fisheries & Oceans.

Schiefer, E., Menounos, B. and Wheate, R., 2007. Recent volume loss of British Columbia glaciers, Canada. Geophysical Research Letters, 34(L16503): 1‐6.

Silva Forest Foundation. 2004. Ecosystem‐based analysis of the Brittany Triangle and North Trapline Landscapes. Silva Forest Foundation, Winlaw, BC. 210pp

Stahl, K., Moore, R.D., Shea, J.M., Hutchinson, D. and Cannon, A., 2007 in press. Coupled modeling of glacier and streamflow response to future climate scenarios. Ibid.

Stahl, K. Climate Change and Low Flows: Influence of Glaciers and Groundwater. March 12, 2007. Vancouver, BC.

Sushama, L., Laprise, R., Caya, D., Frigon, A. and Slivitzky, M., 2006. Canadian RCM projected climate‐ change signal and its sensitivity to model errors.

Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (Tompkins, Emma L., Sophie A. Nicholson‐Cole, Lisa‐ Ann Hurlston, Emily Boyd, Gina Brooks Hodge, Judi Clarke, Gerard Gray, Neville Trotz and Lynda Varlack (2005). Surviving Climate Change in Small Islands – A Guidebook. School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, UK.

UBC. University of British Columbia. Media Release Nov. 12, 2008. UBC Study Establishes Formula for Predicting Climate Change Impact on Salmon Stocks. URL Site: http://www.publicaffairs.ubc.ca/media/releases/2008/mr‐08‐144.html

Walker, I.J. and Sydneysmith, R. (2008): British Columbia; in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007, edited by D.S. Lemmen, F.J.Warren, J. Lacroix and E. Bush; Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON, 329‐386.

Wang, T, Hamann, A., Spittlehouse, D.L., and Aitken, S.N. (2006). Development of Scale‐free Climate Data for Western Canada for use in Resource Management. International Journal of Climatology 26: 383‐397.

Whitfield, P.H., Reynolds, C.J. and Cannon, A.J., 2002b. Modelling streamflows in present and future climates ‐‐ Examples from Georgia Basin, British Columbia. Canadian Water Resources Journal 27(4): 427‐456.

Whitfield, P.H. and Taylor, E., 1998. Apparent Recent Changes in Hydrology and Climate of Coastal British Columbia. In: Y. Alila (Editor), Mountains to Sea: Human Interaction with the Hydrologic Cycle. Proceedings of 51st Annual Canadian Water Resources Conference, pp. 22‐29.

World Bank, 2010. Convenient Solutions to an Inconvenient Truth. Ecosystem‐based Approaches to Climate Change.

ANNEXES – BACKGROUND PAPERS

(NOTE –Given the size of the files, the following documents have been submitted as separate files)

1. Tine Rossing (Ecolibrio): Water Resources and Climate Change in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area

2. Deb Delong (Orman Consulting): Climate Change Impacts on Forests and Vegetation in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area

3. Wayne McCrory, RPBio: Climate Change and Wildlife and Wild Horse Impacts in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area

4. Richard Holmes (Cariboo Envirotech Ltd.): The Impacts of Climate Change on the Fishery Resource in the Xeni Gwet’in Caretaker Area

Memorandum

To: Federal Review Panel for the Prosperity Gold-Copper Project From: Ann Maest, PhD; Cameron Wobus, PhD; Constance Travers, MS; James Holmes, MS; Jeff Morris, PhD, Stratus Consulting Inc. cc: Chief Bernie Elkins, Tsilhqot’in National Government; Chief Anne Louie, Williams Lake Indian Band Date: 4/16/2010 Subject: Information and arguments to be presented at Prosperity technical sessions

The Tsilhqot’in National Government and the Williams Lake Indian Band retained our company, Stratus Consulting Inc. of Boulder, Colorado, to review the Prosperity Gold-Copper Mine Project environmental impact statement (EIS). On November 9, 2009, we provided our initial comments on the hydrometeorology model that Taseko Mines Ltd. and their contractors, Knight Piésold (together, the Proponents), used to make predictions about future water quantity and quality issues at the mine (see Document #1345). The Proponents have provided some responses to our initial observations. In the technical sessions during the week of April 26, 2010, we will reiterate and expand our critique of the Prosperity plan.

Stratus Consulting has investigated contaminant releases from hundreds of hard-rock mine sites worldwide, including in Canada, the United States, Europe, Central America, Africa, South America, and Asia. In the combined experience of the authors of this memorandum, we have not seen an open pit copper mine with a waste rock and tailings storage facility (TSF) in a temperate climate that has not adversely impacted downstream and downgradient water quality. We will provide the panel with specific case studies from our collective experience that demonstrate that mine proponents routinely underestimate the environmental impacts of proposed mines, and that downgradient and downstream contaminant releases are not uncommon.

As we outline in the following sections, we will discuss with the panel in greater detail some of the errors and uncertainties in the proponents’ EIS that make its predictions unreliable. After reviewing the EIS and subsequent responses to comments from the Proponents, we conclude that it is likely that the mine as proposed will release mine-related contaminants, including acidity, metals, metalloids, sulfate, and nitrogen compounds, into groundwater and surface water. These contaminants are likely to adversely impact salmonid (trout and salmon) fisheries at least in Fish Creek and the Taseko River.

Dr. Ann Maest will attend the water quality and quantity sessions on Monday and Tuesday, April 2627. Dr. Maest is an environmental geochemist who specializes in mine site geochemistry. She coauthored a comprehensive examination of predicted versus actual water quality impacts at large mine sites in the United States. Other authors of this memorandum will assist Dr. Maest via teleconference.

SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

Dr. Jeff Morris will attend the fish and fish habitat sessions on Tuesday and Wednesday, April 2728. Dr. Morris is an aquatic toxicologist who has investigated the effects of heavy metals on salmonids in both field and laboratory toxicity studies. If possible, Dr. Josh Lipton will assist Dr. Morris via teleconference.

This memorandum is organized as follows: Section 1 critiques the Proponents’ tests and models used to predict acid and contaminant generation from exposed rock at the mine. Section 2 critiques the hydrometeorology model, water balance, and hydrogeologic models. Section 3 then discusses past experience and case studies from other mines, and Section 4 details the adverse effects on aquatic life of copper and cadmium released into rivers. Section 5 presents the qualifications of the authors of this memorandum. A list of references and materials relied upon is provided at the end.

1. Contaminant Sources

In this part of the technical sessions, Dr. Maest will provide evidence that the Proponents have erred in their estimation of acid and contaminant generation potential. In this section, we outline the information that Dr. Maest will present, including flaws identified both in geochemical testing and subsequently in geochemical modeling.

1.1 Flaws in Geochemical Testing

1.1.1 Humidity cell test flaws

We have identified several flaws in the humidity cell test (HCT) procedures and analysis. Each of these flaws likely results in an underestimate of the quantity of contamination that this mine will generate. Specific topics of the HCTs that Dr. Maest may discuss at the technical meetings include the following:

 The rock types used in the HCTs are not representative of the rock types at the proposed project. Many HCT samples had sulfide values lower and neutralizing potential to acid potential (NP:AP) ratios higher than those for rocks that are representative of pit walls.

 Phase 4 HCTs are not useful for evaluating the importance of metal leaching, especially for aquatic life concerns, because the detection limits are too high for many metals of concern.

 Kinetic tests were not conducted for long enough periods of time to reach the onset of acid generation or maximum leachable contaminant concentrations.

Page 2 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

 The Proponents estimate that the majority of the mined material will be potentially acid- generating (PAG), yet only three of 25 HCTs became acidic with increasing concentrations of metals, again suggesting flaws in the geochemical testing approach and methodology.

 Many of the HCTs show an initial pulse or release of contaminants, but this was not taken into account in the predictions of contaminant concentrations in water resources.

1.1.2 Short-term leach tests and identification of contaminants of concern

The short-term leach tests were not conducted in a manner that allowed estimation of contaminant generation. Specific points that Dr. Maest may discuss include the following:

 Short-term leach tests were too dilute to be used for identification of contaminants of concern.

 The elevated concentrations of antimony in the shake flask tests appear to be have been ignored in modeling of downstream/downgradient transport.

 Saturated column tests with elevated iron concentrations also had elevated arsenic concentrations, which was not adequately considered in tailings seepage modeling.

 The list of contaminants of concern developed by the Proponents ignores other mining- related contaminants such as nitrate, nitrite, and ammonia.

1.2 Flaws in Geochemical Modeling

Dr. Maest will also discuss flaws in the Proponents’ geochemical modeling. Some of the topics that she may discuss in the technical sessions include the following:

 Contaminants potentially leached from tailings materials stored in the tailings storage facility (TSF) under either oxidizing or reducing conditions were excluded from the tailings model.

 Lag times to acid generation for PAG rocks are greatly underestimated. Using the one HCT that became highly acidic after 40 weeks as a calibration point, we estimate that the time to onset of acid for PAG rocks is at least an order of magnitude less than predicted.

Page 3 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

 Given the underestimate in lag time to acid generation, we believe there is a substantial risk that exposed wall rock in pit walls will generate large quantities of acid and contaminants before the pit is inundated.

 Similarly, we believe there is a substantial risk that the PAG waste stored within the tailings impoundment can generate acid before it is submerged, or if the tailings impoundment becomes unsaturated in the future.

Each of the factors that Dr. Maest will discuss support our conclusion that the Proponents have greatly underestimated the potential of this mine to generate substantial quantities of acid, metals, and other contaminants.

2. Mine Site Water Balance and Hydrogeology

As we discussed in our previous report last November, we believe that the limited site-specific data on which the Proponents rely are not sufficient to support the probabilistic water balance models that they have generated for the Prosperity Project. Their recent responses to our November report have not adequately addressed many of our initial concerns. In addition, we believe that the Proponents’ models of contaminant transport in groundwater fail to account for the large uncertainty in their underlying data, potentially resulting in unforeseen groundwater contaminant plumes and discharge of contaminants to Big Onion Lake and, potentially, the Taseko River.

Dr. Maest will summarize some of the shortcomings in the hydrometeorology modeling and will review remaining concerns, as well as provide examples of failures in hydrologic predictions at other mine sites (see Section 3). In summary, we are concerned that if the water balance does not adequately account for the wide range of potential variations in water input over time, there remains a significant risk that water levels in the TSF will not be maintained, allowing oxidation of mine waste materials when water levels drop during dry periods, and subsequent transport of contaminants via groundwater seepage and from releases during storm events.

2.1 Maintaining Water Levels in TSF

The Proponent has proposed inundating tailings and PAG rock in the TSF, where a static water level will need to be maintained in perpetuity. If an event such as a drought or unforeseen seepage causes water levels in the TSF to drop, sulfides in the waste material will oxidize, resulting in acid generation and metals leaching. Specific criticisms of the Proponents’ plan for the TSF include the following:

Page 4 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

 The EIS shows PAG waste storage above the level of the supernatant pond in year 5 of operations. As discussed in the previous section, the subaerial exposure of PAG waste will increase the likelihood of acid generation in the impoundment.

 The Proponents claim that extra water could be readily obtained from other sources during low-probability dry events (droughts). In a water balance analysis that they released last October, they state that the TSF pond volume would dry up completely in a modeled drought scenario unless flows were supplemented by additional means. They have not put forth a convincing argument that they will have the “additional means” to make up for the shortfall.

 The Proponents have proposed a plan in which water levels in the TSF remain static in perpetuity, submerging the PAG waste and preventing acid generation without drying out or overflowing. There is no proposed mechanism to ensure that PAG waste rock remains submerged in perpetuity, presenting a high likelihood that the water levels will fluctuate and/or that expensive retrofitting to maintain water levels will be required.

Other aspects of the TSF water balance are addressed below.

2.2 TSF Seepage

Under many of the Proponents’ water balance scenarios, they predict periods during which there may be insufficient water to ensure waste in the TSF remains submerged. Under these scenarios, tailings material and PAG waste will be exposed to the atmosphere. However, even these scenarios are based on a likely underestimate of groundwater seepage out of the TSF. Infiltration losses from the TSF to groundwater in all versions of the site water balance may be underestimated for the following reasons:

 The Proponents assume the hydraulic conductivity of the till underlying a portion of the TSF is 1 x 10-6 cm/s in their estimate of TSF seepage, but this value is five times lower than the geometric mean conductivity from the hydraulic tests that were conducted in this unit.

 Hydraulic conductivity estimates from the basalt below the glacial till range across four orders of magnitude (a factor of 10,000), which likely reflects localized control of fractures on groundwater flow. However, the Proponents’ sensitivity analyses conducted to estimate uncertainty in infiltration losses range by only a factor of 25. Seepage through basalt bedrock will preferentially occur in high permeability zones, such that the actual seepage rates in bedrock could be substantially higher than their maximum predicted rates.

Page 5 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

The net result is a potential underestimate of seepage, and thus an overestimate of the ability of the TSF to retain water and maintain saturated conditions for PAG waste. The large range of uncertainties in hydraulic conductivity in bedrock beneath the TSF also underscores the uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of groundwater contamination reaching Big Onion Lake.

2.3 Issues With Water Balance Model

The Proponents’ baseline precipitation and streamflow data are inadequate to characterize the inflows and outflows to their water balance model. The net result is that their water balance likely has far greater uncertainty than represented by their probabilistic model.

2.3.1 Precipitation and runoff data

We identified several issues with the precipitation and runoff data that the Proponents used in their water balance model. Most of these issues were raised in our November report, and we were unconvinced by the Proponents’ responses. Some example issues that Dr. Maest may address include the following:

 Site-specific precipitation data are of very poor quality and are unreliable. The Proponents acknowledged as much, discarding many of the site-specific data and suggesting that they were erroneous.

 Modeled long-term precipitation trends are based on correlations between one site near the mine and one distant site. However, in the two years for which they Proponents had data from each site, there did not appear to be any correlation between measured precipitation near the mine and measured precipitation at the distant site used for the long-term modeling, thus introducing a potentially large and unquantifiable uncertainty into the water balance.

 The most recent estimate of mean annual unit runoff (MAUR) – the key parameter upon which inputs to the water balance are based – appears to be derived from a single year of data from a single meteorological station. The low estimate of MAUR appears to have been obtained from a different gauge during the same year. We question the use of two data points from the same year to characterize the range of potential interannual variability in unit runoff.

The Proponents have revised the water balance model several times since the initial EIS was released. Each iteration of the water balance modeling yields considerably different results than the previous iterations, providing another indication that the Proponents do not have a solid grasp

Page 6 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

on these data. Given this overall level of uncertainty in their water balance, it is troubling that they have not included in their mine plan specific contingencies for active water capture and treatment (in perpetuity) and specific sources of water to maintain TSF water levels in the event of drought or groundwater losses.

3. Experience From Other Mines

As discussed in the previous section, the underlying data on which the water quality predictions at this mine are based are flawed. We do not believe the Proponents have adequate data to accurately quantify the impacts of this mine. Generally, we can state from our experience assessing mine sites worldwide that the scenario presented in the EIS (open pit copper mine with TSF, no active water treatment, and little to no anticipated adverse impacts) is not a scenario that we have ever seen at any other mine site. Dr. Maest will briefly discuss other reports and case studies that can inform the panel of the risks of this mine.

While every mine site is unique in its characteristics such as mineral occurrences (e.g., massive sulfide vs. porphyritic), mining techniques (e.g., open pit vs. underground), or ore processing (e.g., heap leach vs. flotation), many mines with differing characteristics have had water quality impacts, and mine with characteristics that are similar to the Prosperity Project have had impacts that were not predicted. These impacts have resulted in adverse downstream impacts, or costly unplanned water capture and treatment systems that in many cases must be operated in perpetuity, or both.

3.1 Predicted vs. Actual Water Quality at U.S. Mines

Dr. Maest will discuss the studies of the accuracy of water quality predictions at mine sites. She will summarize data from a study that she conducted with James Kuipers, PE, and others in 20052006. This study was an in-depth review of state-of-the-art characterization and modeling approaches for predicting mine water quality (Maest et al., 2005) and a comparison of predicted water quality impacts to actual water quality impacts at mines in the United States (Kuipers et al., 2006 – hereafter referred to collectively as the Maest-Kuipers study). In addition, Dr. Maest may discuss similar data from Schafer (2008).

The Maest-Kuipers study reviewed over 100 mines in the U.S. that received permits after submitting an EIS. They chose 25 case studies in which they had sufficient data to evaluate the accuracy of the water quality impacts predicted in the EIS. Dr. Maest will summarize the results, discussing the relationship between “inherent factors” (e.g., proximity to water resources, contaminant leaching potential) at a mine and its effects on the environment. She will show that nearly every mine with inherent factors similar to Prosperity released contaminants sufficient to

Page 7 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

exceed surface water and groundwater quality standards, despite predicting that they would not exceed any water quality standards.

3.2 Other Case Studies

Dr. Maest may also discuss examples from other mines, including the following:

 Berkeley Pit in Butte, Montana. Dr. Maest has analyzed this highly contaminated open- pit copper mine extensively, including an analysis of the sources of contamination (Maest, 2001). The rock walls in the Berkeley Pit generate enough acid and metals to result in a pit lake with a pH of 2, copper concentrations at least three orders of magnitude greater than water quality criteria, contaminant concentrations sufficient to kill migrating snow geese who used the lake as a stopover (Adams, 1995), and a need for expensive water treatment in perpetuity.

 Harvard Pit in Jamestown, California. The water model developed for this pit lake in the mid-1990s estimated that it would reach an elevation of 387 m in 2025, with water not reaching the 402-m level of the alluvial aquifer until many years later. In fact, the water level reached 387 m in 2008 and is now predicted to reach the alluvial aquifer in 2015 (Mullenmeister, 2009). Expensive, perpetual water treatment will be required to prevent releases of this contaminated water, and the posted bond is far less than the actual cost.

 Buckhorn Mountain Mine, Okanogan Valley, Washington (near BC border). Dr. Maest has been an active participant in the review of mine management and water quality at this mine, on behalf of the Okanagan Highlands Alliance. Buckhorn Mountain Mine was originally designed as an open pit mine but failed to obtain a permit. Crown Resources, a subsidiary of Canadian mining company Kinross, purchased the property and redesigned it as an underground mine. Even with this reduced impact design, Crown was discharging mine contaminants at concentrations in excess of its water quality permit within one year after the start of mining, resulting in numerous violations of their water discharge permits (see, e.g., Washington Department of Ecology, 2009a, 2009b, 2009c, 2009d). They underestimated metals leaching from mine workings, the amount of PAG rock, and the effectiveness of their groundwater capture system. After one year of operation, they were required to extensively augment their groundwater capture system and completely redesign their water treatment system.

 Ray Mine, Ray, Arizona. Both the Maest-Kuipers report and Stratus Consulting have evaluated the impacts of this open pit porphyry copper mine. In the 1990s it released ammonia, copper, and arsenic into the Gila River such that water quality criteria were exceeded for up to 80 km downstream of the mine, with some samples containing mine-

Page 8 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

related contaminants at concentrations 8 times higher than the water quality standard. The creek that drains the mine workings turned iridescent blue from released copper salts. In addition, floods in 1993 breached the TSF 13 times, releasing an estimated 265,000 tonnes of tailings into the Gila River (Kuipers et al., 2006; Lipton, 2009).

3.3 Tailings Dam Failures

Tailings dam failures are not uncommon (see, e.g., Davies, 2002; WISE Uranium Project, 2009). The U.S. Commission on Large Dams (USCOLD), the International Commission on Large Dams (ICOLD), and the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) have each compiled tailings dam failures over the years. USCOLD compiled a list of 185 tailings dam failure incidents as of 1994, and UNEP and ICOLD compiled a list of 221 tailings dam failure incidents (WISE Uranium Project, 2009). Dr. Maest will briefly summarize these data.

She will also present a recent analysis of tailings dam failures in the European Union (EU), in which the authors conclude that most failures occur at operating mines that fail to adequately design for floods (Rico et al., 2008a). Data from the EU and other sources suggest that a failure of the TSF dam at Prosperity would result in a tailings plume extending many hundreds of kilometers downstream (Rico et al., 2008b), impacting the Taseko, Chilcotin, Chilco, and Fraser rivers.

Dr. Maest may include specific examples of tailings dam failures, such as:

 The 1990 Matachewan Mines tailings dam failure in Ontario (Baker et al., 1996), in which an estimated 190,000 m3 of tailings were released into Davidson Creek and the Montreal River, filling the Davidson Creek floodplain with tailings, depositing an estimated 90,000 m3 of tailings into the bed sediments of the Montreal River, and creating a plume of suspended fine tailings that was visible until the Montreal River entered Lake Temiskaming 168 km downstream.

 The 2000 Baia Mare tailings dam failure in Romania, in which a dam designed by Knight Piésold failed after only 8 months of operation, killing an estimated 1,240 tonnes of fish, extirpating endangered salmon and sturgeon from one river, and affecting drinking water for 2 million people. The EU commission that investigated the spill blamed it in part on a poor water balance model that did not account for the expected range of water inputs, as well as a faulty dam design by Knight-Piésold (Baia Mare Task Force, 2000).

 The 1975 failure of a tailings dam in the Upper Blackfoot River in Montana, which destroyed aquatic habitat and riparian vegetation for several kilometers. Now 35 years later, the area is still nearly devoid of aquatic life (Holmes and Lipton, 2007).

Page 9 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

3.4 Adaptive Management

Dr. Maest will critique the Proponents’ suggestion that they can address unplanned contaminant releases with adaptive management. She will present information from a recently published governmental guide for adaptive management (Williams et al., 2009) that specifies the need for proponents to adequately plan for and mitigate all potential impacts, using adaptive management as an incremental step to adjust existing plans rather than as a strategy to avoid testing, monitoring, mitigation and mine planning. Dr. Maest will discuss examples where adaptive management has been attempted, including previous case studies in which mining companies either failed entirely to address the contamination they generated or were required to retrofit with very expensive water capture and treatment designs that they will need to maintain in perpetuity.

4. Effects of Metals on Salmonid Fisheries

Given the risk that Taseko has underestimated contaminant generation and transport, plus their lack of planned water capture and treatment onsite and the preponderance of evidence from other mine sites, it is highly likely that mine contaminants will be released to downstream and downgradient resources. Specifically, we believe that heavy metals likely will be released to Fish Creek, Big Onion Lake, and the Taseko River, at concentrations that could exceed the proponent’s “worst case scenario” by orders of magnitude. Metals releases to cold-water fisheries could have profound adverse impacts on aquatic biota. To illustrate examples of such effects, Dr. Morris will present data from many toxicology studies that have examined the effects of heavy metals on fish, with Dr. Josh Lipton on teleconference if possible.

As mentioned previously, the underlying data on which the water quality predictions at this mine are based are flawed. We do not believe the Proponents have adequate data to accurately quantify the releases of contaminants to downstream receptors in Fish Creek and the Taseko River. However, we can compare the Proponents’ predicted “worst case” metals concentrations to known effects from our toxicity testing, and we can show the small margin of safety in those estimates. We conclude that even a small underprediction in the Proponents’ modeling would lead to metals concentrations that are associated with lethality to salmonid fish. To keep the presentation simple and short, Dr. Morris will likely focus his presentation on the effects of dissolved cadmium and copper on salmonids, although other metals and other mechanisms of adverse impact will be discussed briefly.

4.1 Background Information

Dr. Morris will present basic concepts in aquatic toxicology, including acute toxicity, chronic toxicity, and different types of adverse effects of metals. He will also briefly discuss the many

Page 10 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

ways in which metals can adversely affect aquatic biota, including sediment and food chain effects. He will also discuss some of the many factors that can effect metals toxicity, and how those factors suggest that the impacts of metals could easily be far greater than predicted. Background information on basic metals toxicology will draw on information from Meyer et al. (2007) in addition to other sources cited below.

4.2 Cadmium Toxicity

Dr. Morris will discuss the mechanisms of cadmium toxicity and present data showing concentrations of dissolved cadmium in surface water at which deleterious effects occur. He will show concentrations at which lethality occurs, and lower concentrations at which sub-lethal effects such as reduced growth and behavioral avoidance occur.

Dr. Morris will show that the predicted “worst case scenario” concentrations of cadmium in Fish Creek and the Taseko River exceed thresholds for sub-acute effects on salmonids and exceed the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME) acute threshold for cadmium (CCME, 1999). If the Proponents’ worst case scenario underestimates cadmium concentrations, cadmium would likely be acutely lethal in Fish Creek, would at least exceed concentrations that reduce growth and cause behavioral avoidance in the Taseko River, and could exceed acutely lethal concentrations in the Taseko River.

Dr. Morris’ analysis of cadmium toxicity will draw on several sources of data, including McNicol and Scherer (1991), Stratus Consulting (1999), Hansen et al. (2002a, 2002b), Sloman et al. (2003), and Riddell et al. (2005).

4.3 Copper Toxicity

Dr. Morris will discuss the mechanisms of copper toxicity and present data showing concentrations of dissolved copper in surface water at which deleterious effects occur to salmonids. He will show concentrations at which lethality occurs, and lower concentrations at which sub-lethal effects such as reduced growth and behavioral avoidance occur.

Dr. Morris will show that the predicted “worst case scenario” concentrations of copper in Fish Creek exceed thresholds for sub-acute effects on salmonids and exceed the BC Ministry of Environment water quality guidelines acute threshold (BC MOE, 2006). Predicted copper concentrations in the Taseko River would exceed thresholds for sub-acute effects on rainbow trout. If the Proponents’ worst case scenario underestimates copper concentrations, copper would be acutely lethal in Fish Creek, would at least exceed concentrations that reduce growth and

Page 11 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

cause behavioral avoidance in the Taseko River, and could exceed acutely lethal concentrations in the Taseko River.

Dr. Morris’ analysis of copper toxicity will draw primarily on Hansen et al. (1999, 2002c, 2002d) and Meyer et al. (2007).

4.4 Implications for Salmonid Fisheries

Given the uncertainties and problems in the contaminant source and transport models, we believe that releases of cadmium and copper to the Taseko River at concentrations several times greater than what the Proponents have estimated is not only plausible but likely. In addition, Dr. Morris will note that the metal concentrations used to predict toxicity in Fish Creek and the Taseko River were the Proponents’ “worst case scenario” concentrations from March to May, which may correspond to the time of migration, spawning, egg hatching, and swim-up for many salmonid species in this system. Therefore, sub-lethal metal concentrations could disrupt adult migration and spawning by affecting olfactory sensory organs and disrupting the fish’s ability to find spawning grounds and establish social hierarchies. Additionally, the highest metal concentrations may occur at the time of year when certain salmonid species are hatching or young are first emerging from gravel beds (swim-up), which is the most sensitive life stage of salmonids. Finally, sub-lethal metal concentrations could impact the overall fitness of the salmonid fishery by reducing growth rates in juvenile fish.

The combined effect of lethal and sub-lethal concentrations of metals such as cadmium and copper, in addition to possible additive and (or) synergistic effects of mixtures of these and other toxic metals in Fish Creek and the Taseko River could have deleterious effects on a salmonid fishery that currently supports viable populations of many species including rainbow, steelhead and bull trout, and Chinook and sockeye salmon.

5. Qualifications of the Authors

Below we present the qualifications of the authors of this memorandum. In addition, we include the qualifications of Dr. Lipton, who assisted Dr. Morris in the evaluation of metals toxicity data. If possible, Dr. Lipton may participate via teleconference in the technical sessions.

Ann Maest, PhD, is an aqueous geochemist with expertise in the fate and transport of natural and anthropogenic contaminants in groundwater, surface water, and sediment. She has over 20 years of research and professional experience as a geochemist and has worked on natural systems as well as on systems that have been impacted by industrial activities, especially hardrock mining and petroleum exploration. Dr. Maest’s research has included studies of metal-

Page 12 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

organic interactions, metal and metalloid speciation, water-rock interactions, and redox geochemistry in surface water and groundwater. The results of her research have been published as numerous articles in peer-reviewed journals including Applied Geochemistry, Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Chemical Geology, Applied and Environmental Microbiology, and Environmental Science and Technology. She received the Adrian Smith Lecturer in Applied Geochemistry from the University of Waterloo in 1999. Dr. Maest has served on a number of national and international committees, including several National Academy of Sciences committees related to mining and minerals research issues and international committees on mining and sustainable development. She was recently elected to a second three-year term on the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Earth Resources. Dr. Maest holds a PhD in geochemistry and water resources from Princeton University and an undergraduate degree in geology from Boston University.

Cameron Wobus, PhD, is a geomorphologist and surface and groundwater hydrologist. His areas of specialty include surface water and groundwater hydrology, sediment transport, and numerical modeling. Dr. Wobus has developed and implemented watershed-scale hydrologic monitoring and models, developed numerical models of sediment transport and river incision, and evaluated contaminant fate and transport pathways in surface and groundwaters. His publications have appeared in journals including Nature, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, Geology, and the Journal of Geophysical Research. Dr. Wobus holds a PhD in earth sciences from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, an MS in earth sciences (hydrogeology) from Dartmouth College, and an AB in economics and geology from Bowdoin College.

Constance Travers, MS, is a hydrogeologist with 23 years of experience in hydrogeology, water resources, and environmental chemistry. She has extensive experience in the development, testing, and application of numerical models used in predicting the mobility of water and inorganic and organic contaminants in the subsurface, as well as in surface water. Ms. Travers has developed vadose zone, surface water, and groundwater models ranging in complexity from conceptual hydrologic models to three-dimensional numerical models of regional flow systems. Her expertise in groundwater flow, contaminant chemistry, and transport and fate processes has been used extensively by litigation teams involved in environmental lawsuits. Ms. Travers has worked on subsurface fate and transport issues to support site characterization, remedial investigations, and feasibility studies. She has directed multidisciplinary teams to assess the water quality impacts of hard-rock mining operations, including assessment of the water quality and ecological risks associated with the lakes that form in dewatered open pits, the effects of tailings impoundments and waste rock storage facilities on receiving waters, and the impact of mine dewatering on groundwater and surface water resources. She is the coauthor of a report with Dr. Maest on methods for predicting water quality impacts of hard rock mining, and Ms. Travers and Dr. Maest recently taught a short-course on the same topic to regulators in the State of California. She has managed hydrologic field investigations including sampling of surface water, sediments, soils, and groundwater; monitoring well installation; aquifer testing,

Page 13 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

cone-penetrometer; and Geoprobe work. Ms. Travers holds an MS in applied hydrogeology and a BS in geology from Stanford University.

James Holmes, MS, is a hydrologist with expertise in contaminant fate and transport, acid mine drainage, and water quality modeling. Over the past 18 years, he has worked at numerous hard rock mining sites an employee of Stratus Consulting, Stratus Consulting’s predecessor company, and as an employee of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. His research has included hydrograph separation in stormflow, geochemical mixing models, and sources of acid mine drainage. He has extensive field experience designing studies of flow measurement, contaminant loading and water quality at mine sites. He has evaluated environmental impacts at several large mining operations, including the Clark Fork Complex in Montana, the Bunker Hill/Coeur d’Alene Complex in Idaho, the Upper Blackbird Mining District in Montana, the Ray Mine in Arizona, and the Tri-State Mining District in Missouri, Kansas, and Oklahoma. Mr. Holmes holds an MS in earth sciences from Dartmouth College and a BA in environmental biology from Middlebury College.

Jeff Morris, PhD, is an aquatic toxicologist with experience in aquatic biology, biogeochemistry, contaminant fate and transport, environmental remediation, and alternative energy generation. As an aquatic toxicologist, Dr. Morris has conducted several laboratory and field investigations on the fate and effects of metals on aquatic biota, including fish, invertebrates, and biofilm. Dr. Morris has developed unique technologies to enhance bioremediation of groundwater and sediments impacted by acid mine drainage. His research over the last 10 years has focused on acute and chronic investigations of the effects of metals, ammonia, and bacterial infections on invertebrate and fish species including the threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and the endangered Lost River sucker (Deltistes luxatus). Additionally, Dr. Morris has conducted detailed investigations into the biogeochemical mechanisms driving diel metal cycling in mining-impacted streams and applied this knowledge to the design of a biological metal-removal system for treating drinking water during long-term missions in space for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). He has published peer-reviewed papers in numerous scientific journals including Aquatic Toxicology; Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry; Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology; Water, Air, and Soil Pollution; Biogeochemistry; Hydrobiologia; Mine Water and the Environment; Journal of Environmental Science and Health; and Chemical Engineering Journal. Dr. Morris holds a PhD in zoology and physiology and a BS in wildlife and fisheries biology and management from the University of Wyoming.

Josh Lipton, PhD, is an environmental toxicologist with expertise in aquatic and terrestrial toxicology, ecological assessments and ecological risk assessment, applied ecology and population biology, and uncertainty analysis. Dr. Lipton’s toxicological research activities include investigations into the bioavailability of metals to fish and plants, sublethal and behavioral responses of organisms to hazardous substances, effects of acclimation and adaptation

Page 14 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

on sensitivity to metals, and community/ecological responses to chronic contamination. Dr. Lipton is an expert in the environmental toxicology of salmonids, including both salmon and trout. He directs field studies on fish and wildlife populations, field studies of aquatic and terrestrial habitat and community composition, laboratory toxicity studies, and environmental sampling and monitoring programs. Dr. Lipton has served as Lead Scientist for numerous environmental assessments, ecological modeling studies, and evaluations related to water quality criteria and standards. He is the author or coauthor of over 45 peer-reviewed scientific publications and over 150 presentations at national and international scientific meetings and symposia, and has been an invited speaker and instructor to a number of government and university audiences. In addition, he holds the position of Research (Full) Professor in the Department of Geochemistry at the Colorado School of Mines and has served as an elected member of the editorial boards of the scientific journals Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry and Science of the Total Environment. Dr. Lipton holds PhD and MS degrees in natural resources from Cornell University, and a BA in environmental biology from Middlebury College.

References

Adams, D. 1995. Did toxic stew cook the goose? High Country News, December 11, 1995. Available: http://www.hcn.org/issues/49/1520. Accessed 4/15/2010.

Baia Mare Task Force. 2000. Report of the International Task Force for Assessing the Baia Mare Accident. December.

Baker, F., D. Cook, J. Deem, H. Letient, and H. Walsh. 1996. Matachewan Mines Tailings Dam: From Failure to Rehabilitation. Proceedings of the Canadian Dam Safety Association Conference, Niagara Falls.

BC MOE. 2006. British Columbia Approved Water Quality Guidelines. Available: http://www.env.gov.bc.ca/wat/wq/BCguidelines/approv_wq_guide/approved.html. Accessed 4/15/2010.

CCME. 1999. Canadian Water Quality Guidelines for the Protection of Aquatic Life: Cadmium. Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment.

Davies, M.P. 2002. Tailings impoundment failures: Are geotechnical engineers listening? Geotechnical News September:24-26.

Page 15 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

Hansen, J.A., P.G. Welsh, and J. Lipton. 2002d. Relative sensitivity of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to acute copper toxicity. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 21:633-639.

Hansen, J.A., J. Lipton, P.G. Welsh, and A.D. Dailey. 2002a. The relative sensitivity of bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to acute exposures of cadmium and zinc. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 21:67-75.

Hansen, J.A., P.G. Welsh, J. Lipton, and M.J. Suedkamp. 2002b. The effects of long-term cadmium exposure on the growth and survival of juvenile bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus). Aquatic Toxicology 58:165-174.

Hansen, J.A., J.D. Rose, R.A. Jenkins, K.G. Gerow, and H.L. Berman. 1999. Differences in neurobehavioral responses of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and rainbow trout (O. mykiss) exposed to copper: 2. Neurophysiological and histological effects on the olfactory system. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 18(9):1972-1978.

Hansen, J.A., J. Lipton, P.G. Welsh, J. Morris, D. Cacela, and M.J. Suedkamp. 2002c. Relationship between exposure duration, tissue residues, growth, and mortality in rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) juveniles sub-chronically exposed to copper. Aquatic Toxicology 58:174- 188.

Holmes, J. and J. Lipton. 2007. Preliminary Evaluation of Injuries and Damages: Upper Blackfoot Mining Complex, Lewis and Clark County, Montana. Prepared by Stratus Consulting for the Montana Natural Resource Damage Program, Helena, MT. July.

Kuipers, J.R., A.S. Maest, K.A. MacHardy, and G. Lawson. 2006. Comparison of Predicted and Actual Water Quality at Hardrock Mines: The Reliability of Predictions in Environmental Impact Statements. Kuipers & Associates, Butte, MT.

Lipton, J. 2009. Expert Report of Joshua Lipton, PhD. ASARCO LLC Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Case No. 05-21207. Evaluation of Natural Resource Damages to Aquatic and Riparian Resources of Mineral Creek and the Gila River Downstream of the Ray Mine and Hayden Smelter Sites, Arizona. January 23. Stratus Consulting Inc., Boulder, CO.

Maest, A. 2001. Dissolved Copper Loadings to the Berkeley Pit: Relative Contribution of Different Sources. Prepared by Stratus Consulting, Boulder, CO for U.S. Department of Justice, Seattle, WA. Draft.

Maest, A.S., J.R. Kuipers, C.L. Travers, and D.A. Atkins. 2005. Predicting Water Quality at Hardrock Mines: Methods and Models, Uncertainties, and State-of-the-Art. Kuipers & Associates, Butte, MT.

Page 16 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

McNicol, R.E. and E. Scherer. 1991. Behavioral responses of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) to cadmium during preference-avoidance testing. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 10:225-234.

Meyer, J.S., S.J. Clearwater, T.A. Doser, M.J. Rogaczewski, and J.A. Hansen. 2007. Effects of water quality on acute toxicity of waterborne metals. In Effects of Water Chemistry on Bioavailability and Toxicity of Waterborne Cadmium, Copper, Nickel, Lead, and Zinc to Freshwater Organisms. SETAC Press, Pensacola, FL. pp. 41-96.

Mullenmeister, E. 2009. Jamestown Mine Harvard Pit Water Balance Model. Prepared by Shaw E & I, Inc. for the SWRCB Training Academy Short Course on Characterizing, Predicting and Modeling Water at Mine Sites. May 20.

Rico, M., G. Benito, and A. Diez-Herrero. 2008b. Floods from tailings dam failures. Journal of Hazardous Materials 154(1-3):79-87.

Rico, M., G. Benito, A.R. Salgueiro, A. Diez-Herrero, and H.G. Pereira. 2008a. Reported tailings dam failures: A review of the European incidents in the worldwide context. Journal of Hazardous Materials 152(2):846-852.

Riddell, D.J., J.M. Culp, and D.J. Baird. 2005. Sublethal effects of cadmium on prey choice and capture efficiency in juvenile brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 24(7):1751-1758.

Schafer, W. 2008. Critical Review of Geochemical Prediction at Mines. Prepared for Northwest Mining Association, Reno, NV. December.

Sloman, K.A., G.R. Scott, Z. Diao, C. Rouleau, C.M. Wood, and D.G. McDonald. 2003. Cadmium affects the social behaviour of rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss. Aquatic Toxicology 65:171-185.

Stratus Consulting. 1999. Sensitivity of Bull Trout (Salvelinus confluentus) to Cadmium and Zinc in Water Characteristic of the Coeur d’Alene River Basin. Acute Toxicity Report. Prepared for U.S. EPA Region X. December.

Washington Department of Ecology. 2009a. Crown Resources Corporation Notice of Violation No. 6674. April 17.

Washington Department of Ecology. 2009b. Crown Resources Corporation Notice of Violation No. 6675. April 27.

Page 17 SC12041

Stratus Consulting Memorandum (4/16/2010)

Washington Department of Ecology. 2009c. Crown Resources Corporation Notice of Violation No. 7080. August 21.

Washington Department of Ecology. 2009d. Buckhorn Gold Mine Fined $40,000 for Violating Water Quality Permit. Available: http://www.ecy.wa.gov/news/2009news/2009-092.html, accessed 4/15/2010.

Williams, B.K., R.C. Szaro, and C.D. Shapiro. 2009. Adaptive Management: The U.S. Department of the Interior Technical Guide. Adaptive Management Working Group, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC.

WISE Uranium Project. 2009. Chronology of major tailings dam failures. Available: http://www.wise-uranium.org/mdaf.html. Accessed 4/15/2010.

Page 18 SC12041