Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc

HOW THE POLL WAS CONDUCTED

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy, Inc. of Jacksonville, Florida from October 1 through October 6, 2018. A total of 625 registered voters in Florida’s 27th Congressional District were interviewed by telephone. All indicated they were “likely to vote” in the November general election

Those interviewed were randomly selected from a phone-matched Florida voter registration list from that included both land-line and cell phone numbers.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 4 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

1 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 27 Poll

NAME RECOGNITION

Do you recognize the name ______? (IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable or neutral opinion of ______?

RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE RECOGNIZE DON'T FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLE NEUTRAL RECOGNIZE

CONG DISTRICT 27

Maria Elvira Salazar 40% 18% 28% 14%

Donna Shalala 37% 33% 21% 9%

GOVERNOR

Andrew Gillum 37% 29% 19% 15%

Ron DeSantis 32% 30% 22% 16%

SENATE

Rick Scott 43% 38% 17% 2%

Bill Nelson 40% 30% 24% 6%

Donald Trump 43% 46% 11% -

2 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 27 Poll

QUESTION: If the 2018 election for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, would you vote for Bill Nelson, the Democrat, or Rick Scott, the Republican?

NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

DISTRICT 48% 44% 8%

SEX NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

Men 42% 50% 8% Women 55% 37% 8%

AGE NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

<50 55% 34% 11% 50+ 43% 51% 6%

RACE/ETHNICITY NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

White 51% 39% 10% Black 86% 4% 10% Hispanic 40% 53% 7%

HISPANIC ORIGIN NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

Cuban 27% 66% 7% Non-Cuban 74% 19% 7%

PARTY REGISTRATION NELSON SCOTT UNDECIDED

Democrat 89% 6% 5% Republican 5% 91% 4% Independent 47% 38% 15%

3 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 27 Poll

QUESTION: If the 2018 election for governor were held today, would you vote for:

- Andrew Gillum – Democrat - Ron DeSantis – Republican - Darcy Richardson – Reform Party - Ryan Foley – No Party Affiliation - Kyle “KC” Gibson – No Party Affiliation - Bruce Stanley – No Party Affiliation

GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED

DISTRICT 45% 41% 1% 13%

SEX GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED

Men 40% 47% 1% 12% Women 49% 36% 1% 14%

AGE GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED

<50 51% 32% 1% 16% 50+ 41% 47% 1% 11%

RACE/ETHNCITY GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED

White 54% 34% 5% 7% Black 90% 2% - 8% Hispanics 33% 50% - 17%

HISPANIC ORIGIN GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED

Cuban 18% 63% - 19% Non-Cuban 72% 17% - 11%

PARTY REGISTRATION GILLUM DESANTIS OTHERS UNDECIDED

Democrat 85% 6% 1% 8% Republican 4% 84% - 12% Independent 43% 35% 2% 20%

4 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 27 Poll

QUESTION: If the 2018 election for the 27th Congressional District U.S. House seat were held today, would you vote for:

- Donna Shalala - Democrat - Maria Elvira Salazar - Republican - Mayra Joli – No Party Affiliation

SHALALA SALAZAR JOLI UNDECIDED

DISTRICT 42% 44% 1% 13%

SEX SHALALA SALAZAR JOLI UNDECIDED

Men 36% 51% 1% 12% Women 47% 38% 1% 14%

AGE SHALALA SALAZAR JOLI UNDECIDED

<50 52% 35% 1% 12% 50+ 35% 50% 1% 14%

RACE/ETHNCITY SHALALA SALAZAR JOLI UNDECIDED

White 60% 30% 1% 9% Black 90% 2% - 8% Hispanics 25% 58% 1% 16%

HISPANIC ORIGIN SHALALA SALAZAR JOLI UNDECIDED

Cuban 15% 69% 1% 15% Non-Cuban 50% 29% - 21%

PARTY REGISTRATION SHALALA SALAZAR JOLI UNDECIDED

Democrat 76% 11% - 13% Republican 5% 83% 1% 11% Independent 44% 39% 1% 16%

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QUESTION: Which one of the following do you feel is the most important issue facing the country today? (ORDER ROTATED)

DISTRICT HISPANIC NON-HISPANIC

The Economy & Jobs 22% 23% 19% Immigration 17% 19% 11% Healthcare 12% 12% 13% Taxes, Government Spending & the National Debt 9% 8% 10% Russian Collusion & Removing Trump from office 7% 4% 14% Guns Rights & Gun Control 7% 9% 3% Supreme Court Appointments 6% 2% 11% Environment/Climate Change 5% 3% 8% National Security & Foreign Policy Issues 4% 7% 2% Social issues, such as Abortion & Same Sex Marriage 1% 1% 2% Other (NOT READ) 4% 4% 3% Not Sure (NOT READ) 6% 8% 4%

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QUESTION: In general, do you feel things in the country are on the right track or are they on the wrong track?

RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE

DISTRICT 46% 44% 10%

SEX RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE

Men 51% 40% 9% Women 42% 48% 10%

AGE RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE

<50 42% 45% 13% 50+ 49% 43% 8%

RACE/ETHNICITY RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE

White 48% 39% 13% Black 22% 72% 6% Hispanic 49% 42% 9%

HISPANIC ORIGIN RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE

Cuban-American 57% 34% 9% Non-Cuban 29% 62% 9%

PARTY REGISTRATION RIGHT TRACK WRONG TRACK NOT SURE

Democrat 9% 80% 11% Republican 80% 12% 8% Independent 51% 36% 13%

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QUESTION: Compared to a year ago, would you say you are more confident about the economy, less confident about the economy, or do you feel about the same?

MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE

DISTRICT 42% 22% 33% 3%

SEX MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE

Men 51% 16% 31% 2% Women 34% 27% 35% 4%

AGE MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE

<50 35% 29% 34% 2% 50+ 47% 17% 32% 4%

RACE/ETHNICITY MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE

White 38% 20% 41% 1% Black 12% 46% 40% 2% Hispanic 49% 19% 28% 4%

HISPANIC ORIGIN MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE

Cuban-American 60% 12% 24% 4% Non-Cuban 21% 36% 39% 4%

PARTY REGISTRATION MORE LESS SAME NOT SURE

Democrat 11% 43% 44% 2% Republican 79% 4% 14% 3% Independent 36% 17% 44% 3%

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QUESTION: In December 2017, the “Tax Cuts and Jobs Act” was signed into law, which cut income rates, increased the standard deduction but repealed some personal exemptions. To date, do you feel you have or have not benefitted from this tax cut legislation?

YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE

DISTRICT 23% 51% 26%

SEX YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE

Men 33% 50% 17% Women 13% 52% 35%

AGE YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE

<50 16% 57% 27% 50+ 28% 47% 25%

RACE/ETHNICITY YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE

White 29% 41% 30% Black 10% 70% 20% Hispanic 22% 53% 25%

HISPANIC ORIGIN YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE

Cuban-American 25% 49% 26% Non-Cuban 15% 64% 21%

PARTY REGISTRATION YES, HAVE NO, HAVE NOT NOT SURE

Democrat 4% 70% 26% Republican 45% 28% 27% Independent 21% 54% 25%

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QUESTION: Do you support or oppose implementing government-managed, single- payer free health insurance known as “Medicare for All”?

SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

DISTRICT 64% 24% 12%

SEX SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

Men 61% 27% 12% Women 67% 21% 12%

AGE SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

<50 72% 15% 13% 50+ 59% 30% 11%

RACE/ETHNICITY SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

White 61% 34% 5% Black 74% 12% 14% Hispanic 64% 21% 15%

HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

Cuban-American 62% 23% 15% Non-Cuban 71% 15% 14%

PARTY REGISTRATION SUPPORT OPPOSE UNDECIDED

Democrat 85% 7% 8% Republican 40% 44% 16% Independent 67% 22% 11%

10 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 27 Poll

QUESTION: Which of the following three statements comes closest to your view?

- I want my vote in November to support the direction President Trump is leading the nation. - I want my vote in November to change the direction President Trump is leading the nation. - My vote this November doesn’t have much to do with President Trump and his policies.

SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE

DISTRICT 37% 43% 17% 3%

SEX SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE

Men 45% 39% 11% 5% Women 30% 47% 22% 1%

AGE SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE

<50 30% 54% 14% 2% 50+ 42% 36% 19% 3%

RACE/ETHNICITY SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE

White 31% 56% 7% 6% Black 2% 80% 18% - Hispanic 46% 30% 22% 2%

HISPANIC ORIGIN SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE

Cuban 54% 22% 22% 2% Non-Cuban 13% 64% 22% 1%

PARTY REGISTRATION SUPPORT CHANGE NOT MUCH NOT SURE

Democrat 6% 78% 14% 2% Republican 79% 7% 10% 4% Independent 25% 43% 29% 3%

11 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 27 Poll

QUESTION: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the Trump administration’s handling of U.S. immigration policy?

APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

DISTRICT 33% 58% 9%

SEX APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Men 39% 55% 6% Women 27% 61% 12%

AGE APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

<50 28% 63% 9% 50+ 37% 54% 9%

RACE/ETHNICITY APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

White 22% 72% 6% Black 12% 76% 12% Hispanic 40% 48% 12%

HISPANIC ORIGIN APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Cuban-American 50% 38% 12% Non-Cuban 15% 74% 11%

PARTY REGISTRATION APPROVE DISAPPROVE NOT SURE

Democrat 9% 85% 6% Republican 61% 27% 12% Independent 26% 65% 9%

12 Mason-Dixon® Polling & Strategy – Telemundo Florida Congressional District 27 Poll

QUESTION: Do you believe President Trump should or should not be impeached and removed from office?

SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE

DISTRICT 28% 58% 14%

SEX SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE

Men 23% 64% 13% Women 32% 53% 15%

AGE SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE

<50 32% 52% 16% 50+ 25% 62% 13%

RACE/ETHNICITY SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE

White 32% 49% 19% Black 58% 24% 18% Hispanic 21% 68% 11%

HISPANIC ORIGIN SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE

Cuban-American 15% 77% 8% Non-Cuban 38% 44% 18%

PARTY REGISTRATION SHOULD SHOULD NOT NOT SURE

Democrat 54% 28% 17% Republican 3% 87% 10% Independent 24% 61% 15%

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DEMOGRAPHICS

PARTY REGISTRATION:

Democrat 226 (36%) Republican 211 (34%) Independent or Other 188 (30%)

AGE: 18-34 114 (18%) 35-49 146 (23%) 50-64 172 (28%) 65+ 189 (30%) Refused 4 (1%)

RACE/ETHNICITY: White/Caucasian 189 (30%) Black/African American 50 (8%) Hispanic or Cuban 374 (60%) Other 7 (1%) Refused 5 (1%)

HISPANIC ORIGIN: Cuban 271 (72%) Non-Cuban 103 (28%)

SEX: Male 293 (47%) Female 332 (53%)

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