Nuclear Development Nuclear Energy Today Nuclear Energy Today Second Edition NEA Nuclear Development ISBN 978-92-64-99204-7 Nuclear Energy Today Second Edition © OECD 2012 NEA No. 6885 NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT The OECD is a unique forum where the governments of 34 democracies work together to address the economic, social and environmental challenges of globalisation. The OECD is also at the forefront of efforts to understand and to help governments respond to new developments and concerns, such as corporate governance, the information economy and the challenges of an ageing population. The Organisation provides a setting where governments can compare policy experiences, seek answers to common problems, identify good practice and work to co-ordinate domestic and international policies. The OECD member countries are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Republic of Korea, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission takes part in the work of the OECD. OECD Publishing disseminates widely the results of the Organisation’s statistics gathering and research on economic, social and environmental issues, as well as the conventions, guidelines and standards agreed by its members. This work is published on the responsibility of the OECD Secretary-General. NUCLEAR ENERGY AGENCY The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) was established on 1 February 1958. Current NEA membership consists of 30 OECD member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Republic of Korea, the Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the United States. The European Commission also takes part in the work of the Agency. The mission of the NEA is: – to assist its member countries in maintaining and further developing, through international co- operation, the scientific, technological and legal bases required for a safe, environmentally friendly and economical use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, as well as – to provide authoritative assessments and to forge common understandings on key issues, as input to government decisions on nuclear energy policy and to broader OECD policy analyses in areas such as energy and sustainable development. Specific areas of competence of the NEA include the safety and regulation of nuclear activities, radioactive waste management, radiological protection, nuclear science, economic and technical analyses of the nuclear fuel cycle, nuclear law and liability, and public information. The NEA Data Bank provides nuclear data and computer program services for participating countries. In these and related tasks, the NEA works in close collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, with which it has a Co-operation Agreement, as well as with other international organisations in the nuclear field. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found online at: www.oecd.org/publishing/corrigenda. © OECD 2012 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgment of the OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at info@copyright. com or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) [email protected]. Cover photo: Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant, Finland (TVO). FOREWORD Foreword uring 2011, a number of events occurred which will have an impact on the development D of nuclear energy in the years to come. The TEPCO Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in Japan in March caused a widespread review of nuclear policies. The forecasts from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook in November emphasised the growing energy needs of many countries, and the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Durban in December indicated that not enough is being done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Adding to this complexity were the continued impacts of one of the worst global economic crises ever. It is in this context that this edition of Nuclear Energy Today has been prepared, and I would like to underline the reasons why the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency believes this to be an important and timely publication. On 11 March 2011, a major earthquake and ensuing tsunami hit the east coast of Japan and resulted in approximately 19 000 people dead or missing as well as the destruction of thousands of buildings, bridges, roads and industrial infrastructure. Eleven nuclear reactors in the region affected by the earthquake shut down automatically as designed. Unfortunately, at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, a tsunami estimated to have exceeded a height of 14 m, overran the plant’s flood protection dikes and flooded several emergency power supply units, thus preventing the reactors’ decay heat removal systems from operating. This led to core damage in three reactors and to the release of radioactive matter into the environment. Although no fatalities due to the nuclear accident have been reported, tens of thousands of local citizens had to be evacuated and a large area around the site was contaminated. As a result, world public concern over the safety of nuclear energy intensified. Since the accident, the NEA and its member governments have been making numerous efforts to support and to further reinforce the safety of nuclear energy. Multiple verification activities and “stress tests” have been implemented by independent safety authorities in all NEA member countries using nuclear power, and safety upgrades have already begun to be implemented where judged necessary. As highlighted in Nuclear Energy Today, key lessons need to be identified, and the sharing of experience and the development of best practices at the interna- tional level will help ensure the highest levels of nuclear safety into the future. In addition to the consequences that the Fukushima Daiichi accident had on public con- cern over nuclear safety, and more generally public acceptance of nuclear power, it also had an impact on nuclear energy policies. A few countries announced their intention to forego nuclear energy, but most countries that had plans to develop their nuclear programme confirmed their pursuit, albeit at a slower pace. The impact of these changes is discussed in terms of the most recent projections of energy supply and demand for the next decades, which continue to show significant increases in demand, especially in the developing world. This demand for energy will mainly be met by fossil fuels, and the associated emissions, in particular of carbon dioxide, show no signs of relenting despite warnings by international environmental organisations. In its 2011 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency also warns that it will soon be too late to avoid global warming in excess of 2ºC unless decisions to reduce emissions are taken rapidly. Indeed, by 2017 the energy-related infrastructure in place at that time would make it impossible to limit global CO2 emissions below the level consistent with the 2ºC trajec- tory. It describes three main scenarios up to 2035 which differ in the way they address the need to reduce emissions. The role of nuclear energy as an economically competitive, low-carbon technol- ogy is fully recognised in all of them, but the extent of its role depends on policy decisions and trends. Continuous developments in technology and the fuel cycle, as well as implementation of waste management policies and legal frameworks, are necessary for the use of nuclear energy. NUCLEAR ENERGY TODAY, ISBN 978-92-64-99204-7, © OECD 2012 3 FOREWORD This edition of Nuclear Energy Today gives an overview of recent developments in these areas, as well as recalling the basic principles of nuclear energy. The global economic crisis that is affecting OECD countries, and Europe in particular, represents an additional threat to the necessary investments in the energy sector, and to the further devel- opment of capital-intensive technologies such as nuclear and renewable technologies. More than ever, policy-makers need informed arguments regarding the competitiveness of each technology, and financing models need to be developed to support investment in the power sector. Chapter 8 addresses these issues specifically and reports on recent developments and analyses carried out by the Agency and its member countries. Let me finish by recalling that the NEA mission as established in its 2011-2016