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Diversification

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Diversification VOL 21 / ISSUE 15 / 18 APRIL 2019 / £4.49 THE SHORT CUT TO DIVERSIFICATION UBER IPO CREATE A PORTFOLIO WILL LOSSES PUT THE BRAKES ON AT THE CLICK OF A ITS SHARES? BUTTON WITH SPRING CLEAN MAKE A FRESH ETFs START WITH YOUR INVESTMENTS EDITOR’S VIEW What a blockbuster US deal can tell us about the oil price The Chevron/Anadarko transaction implies industry bullishness about the direction of the crude market n 12 April US oil company Chevron made dŚŝƐŝƐĚĞƐƉŝƚĞŽŝůĂůƌĞĂĚLJŵŽǀŝŶŐĨƌŽŵĂƌŽƵŶĚ O a $33bn swoop for Anadarko. As well as ΨϱϱƉĞƌďĂƌƌĞůƚŽŵŽƌĞƚŚĂŶΨϳϬƉĞƌďĂƌƌĞůƐŽĨĂƌ heralding a possible wave of mergers and ŝŶϮϬϭϵĂŵŝĚůŽŽƐĞƌŵŽŶĞƚĂƌLJƉŽůŝĐLJŝŶƚŚĞh^ ĂĐƋƵŝƐŝƟŽŶƐŝŶƚŚĞĞŶĞƌŐLJƐĞĐƚŽƌ͕ƚŚĞƉƌŽƐƉĞĐƟǀĞ ĂŶĚĚŝƐƌƵƉƟŽŶƐƚŽƐƵƉƉůLJĨƌŽŵƚŚĞĞƐĐĂůĂƟŶŐ ĚĞĂůĂůƐŽƉƌŽǀŝĚĞƐƐŽŵĞŝŶƐŝŐŚƚŝŶƚŽŚŽǁƚŚĞ ĐŽŶŇŝĐƚŝŶ>ŝďLJĂ͘ ŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ;ŽƌĂƚůĞĂƐƚŚĞǀƌŽŶ͛ƐďŽĂƌĚͿĂƌĞĐƵƌƌĞŶƚůLJ ǀŝĞǁŝŶŐƚŚĞŽŝůƉƌŝĐĞ͘ COULD THERE BE A BIG SPIKE IN OIL PRICES? Chevron is paying a 39% premium for Anadarko dŚĞĐŽŵŵŽĚŝƟĞƐƐƚƌĂƚĞŐLJƚĞĂŵĂƚĂŶŬ ďĂƐĞĚŽŶŝƚƐĐůŽƐŝŶŐƉƌŝĐĞďĞĨŽƌĞƚŚĞƚƌĂŶƐĂĐƟŽŶ ŽĨŵĞƌŝĐĂDĞƌƌŝůů>LJŶĐŚďĞůŝĞǀĞƚŚĞĐŚĂŶĐĞƐ ǁĂƐĂŶŶŽƵŶĐĞĚ͘dŚŝƐŐĞŶĞƌŽƵƐŽīĞƌĐŽƵůĚƌĞŇĞĐƚ ŽĨĂďŝŐƐƉŝŬĞŝŶŽŝůƉƌŝĐĞƐĂƌĞŶŽƚďĞŝŶŐƉƌŝĐĞĚŝŶďLJ ƚŚĞĐŽŵƉůĞŵĞŶƚĂƌLJŶĂƚƵƌĞŽĨŶĂĚĂƌŬŽ͛ƐƉŽƌƞŽůŝŽ͕ ƚŚĞŵĂƌŬĞƚ͘ ǁŚŝĐŚůŝŬĞŚĞǀƌŽŶ͛ƐŝŶĐůƵĚĞƐŵĂƚĞƌŝĂůĞdžƉŽƐƵƌĞƚŽ ͚/ŶƐŚŽƌƚ͕KWнƐƵƉƉůLJŝƐĨĂůůŝŶŐƐŚĂƌƉůLJ͕ŐůŽďĂů h^ƐŚĂůĞĂůŽŶŐƐŝĚĞŐůŽďĂůĚĞĞƉǁĂƚĞƌĞdžƉůŽƌĂƟŽŶ ŽŝůĚĞŵĂŶĚŝƐƐƟůůŚĞĂůƚŚLJĂŶĚh^ƐŚĂůĞĚŽĞƐŶŽƚ ĂŶĚůŝƋƵĞĮĞĚŶĂƚƵƌĂůŐĂƐ͘ ŚĂǀĞĞŶŽƵŐŚƟŵĞƚŽƌĞƐƉŽŶĚƚŽƚŚĞƌŝƐŝŶŐŽŝůƉƌŝĐĞ ,ŽǁĞǀĞƌ͕ďƌŽŬĞƌĂŶƚŽƌ&ŝƚnjŐĞƌĂůĚƐĂLJƐƚŚĞ ĞŶǀŝƌŽŶŵĞŶƚĂƐǁĞŚĞĂĚŝŶƚŽƚŚĞƐƵŵŵĞƌĚƌŝǀŝŶŐ ƉƌŽŵŝƐĞĚƐLJŶĞƌŐŝĞƐĨƌŽŵƚŚĞĚĞĂůĐŽƵůĚ͚ƌĂƉŝĚůLJ ƉĞĂŬ͕͛ƚŚĞLJŽďƐĞƌǀĞ͘ ĚŝƐĂƉƉĞĂƌ͛ŝĨƚŚĞŽŝůƉƌŝĐĞǁĂƐƚŽƌĞƚƌĞĂƚďĂĐŬƚŽΨϱϬ ͚/ŵƉŽƌƚĂŶƚůLJ͕ŐůŽďĂůŽŝůĐŽŶƐƵŵƉƟŽŶŝƐƐƵƉƉŽƌƚĞĚ per barrel. ďLJƌĞůĂƟǀĞůLJƐƚƌŽŶŐĐŽŶƐƵŵĞƌƐĞŶƟŵĞŶƚĂŶĚ /ƚĐŽŵŵĞŶƚƐ͚͗dŚŝƐůŽŽŬƐƚŽďĞĂŐŽŽĚĚĞĂů ĞdžƉĂŶƐŝǀĞƐĞƌǀŝĐĞƐWD/Ɛ;ƉƵƌĐŚĂƐŝŶŐ ĨŽƌĂůůƉĂƌƟĞƐ͕ĂůďĞŝƚĂƚĂĨĂŝƌůLJƉƵŶĐŚLJǀĂůƵĂƟŽŶ ŵĂŶĂŐĞƌƐ͛ŝŶĚŝĐĞƐͿĂƌŽƵŶĚƚŚĞŐůŽďĞ͕ĂŶĚŝŶƐƉŝƚĞ ƐƵŐŐĞƐƟŶŐƚŚĂƚŚĞǀƌŽŶŵĂŶĂŐĞŵĞŶƚĂƌĞ ŽĨĨĂůůŝŶŐďƵƐŝŶĞƐƐƐĞŶƟŵĞŶƚĂŶĚĐŽŶƚƌĂĐƟŶŐ ĐŽŶĮĚĞŶƚƚŚĂƚĐƌƵĚĞƉƌŝĐĞƐǁŝůůŚŽůĚƵƉʹĂůƚŚŽƵŐŚ ŵĂŶƵĨĂĐƚƵƌŝŶŐWD/Ɛ͛͘ ƐŽŵĞŵĂLJĂƌŐƵĞŚĞǀƌŽŶǁĂƐƵŶĚĞƌƉƌĞƐƐƵƌĞƚŽĚŽ dŚĞLJŶŽƚĞƚŚĂƚĂŐĂŝŶƐƚƚŚŝƐďĂĐŬĚƌŽƉ͕ŝŶǀĞŶƚŽƌŝĞƐ ĂĚĞĂůĂŌĞƌůŽƐŝŶŐŽƵƚŽŶ BHP’s (BHP)ƐŚĂůĞĂƐƐĞƚƐ ŽĨƚŚĞƌĞĮŶĞĚƉƌŽĚƵĐƚƐĚĞƌŝǀĞĚĨƌŽŵĐƌƵĚĞŽŝůŝŶ ƚŽBP (BP.)ůĂƐƚLJĞĂƌ͛͘ ĚĞǀĞůŽƉĞĚĞĐŽŶŽŵŝĞƐĂƌĞƌĞůĂƟǀĞůLJůŝŐŚƚĂŶĚƚŚŝƐ KŝůĞdžĞĐƵƟǀĞƐĂƌĞŶŽƚĂůǁĂLJƐƚŚĞŵŽƐƚĂƐƚƵƚĞ ĂůƐŽĐŽŝŶĐŝĚĞƐǁŝƚŚƚŚĞůŽŽŵŝŶŐŝŶƚƌŽĚƵĐƟŽŶŽĨ ƉƌĞĚŝĐƚŽƌƐŽĨĨƵƚƵƌĞŵŽǀĞŵĞŶƚƐŝŶŽŝůƉƌŝĐĞƐ͕ďƵƚ ŶĞǁĞŵŝƐƐŝŽŶƐƌĞŐƵůĂƟŽŶƐĨŽƌƚŚĞƐŚŝƉƉŝŶŐŝŶĚƵƐƚƌLJ ŚĞǀƌŽŶ͛ƐďŽĂƌĚĂƌĞŶŽƚĂůŽŶĞŝŶĞdžƉĞĐƟŶŐĐƌƵĚĞ ǁŚŝĐŚĐŽƵůĚŽǀĞƌǁŚĞůŵĚĞŵĂŶĚĨŽƌĨƵĞůƐǁŝƚŚĂ ƚŽĞŶũŽLJĂŶƵƉǁĂƌĚƐƚƌĂũĞĐƚŽƌLJ͘ ůŽǁĞƌƐƵůƉŚƵƌĐŽŶƚĞŶƚ͘ dŚŝƐĐƌĞĂƚĞƐĂŶŝŶƚĞƌĞƐƟŶŐďĂĐŬĚƌŽƉƚŽKW͛Ɛ ŶĞdžƚŵĞĞƟŶŐŽŶϮϱ:ƵŶĞŝŶsŝĞŶŶĂĂŶĚǁŚĞƚŚĞƌ 90 85 Brent Crude ƚŚĞ^ĂƵĚŝƌĂďŝĂŶͲĚŽŵŝŶĂƚĞĚŽŝůƉƌŽĚƵĐĞƌƐ͛ĐĂƌƚĞů 80 Oil Price ĐŽŶƐŝĚĞƌƐƵƉƉŝŶŐŽƵƚƉƵƚƋƵŽƚĂƐ͘ 75 70 65 60 55 LJTom Sieber ĞƉƵƚLJĚŝƚŽƌ 50 2018 2019 2 | SHARES | 18 April 2018 BAILLIE GIFFORD JAPANESE INCOME GROWTH FUND THE JAPANESE TEAM BENEFITS FROM OVER 100 YEARS EXPERIENCE INVESTING IN JAPANESE MARKETS. LAND OF THE RISING INCOME. Improving attitudes to corporate governance in Japan are driving widespread changes in management thinking, leading to a greater focus on return on capital. Shareholder payouts are increasing and there is scope for this trend to continue for many years. This VLJQLÛFDQWRSSRUWXQLW\WREHQHÛWIURPDVHFXODUFKDQJHLQFRUSRUDWHDWWLWXGHVOHGXVWR launch our Baillie Gifford Japanese Income Growth Fund in 2016. The fund may EHUHODWLYHO\QHZEXWWKH-DSDQHVH(TXLWLHVWHDPDW%DLOOLH*LIIRUGLVKLJKO\H[SHULHQFHG ZLWKSURYHQVWRFNSLFNLQJDELOLW\ 3OHDVHUHPHPEHUWKDWFKDQJLQJVWRFNPDUNHWFRQGLWLRQVDQG FXUUHQF\H[FKDQJHUDWHVZLOODIIHFWWKHYDOXHRI\RXULQYHVWPHQW in the fund and any income from it. The level of income is not JXDUDQWHHGDQG\RXPD\QRWJHWEDFNWKHDPRXQWLQYHVWHG So, if you’re looking for a mighty fund that aims to deliver real income growth, call 0800 917 2112 or visit www.bailliegifford.com Long-term investment partners Your call may be recorded for training or monitoring purposes. Baillie Gifford & Co Limited is the Authorised Corporate Director of the Baillie Gifford ICVCs. Baillie Gifford & Co Limited is wholly owned by Baillie Gifford & Co. Both companies are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. VIEWING Contents SHARES AS A PDF? CLICK ON PAGE NUMBERS TO JUMP TO THE START OF EDITOR’S What a blockbuster US deal THE RELEVANT 02 SECTION VIEW can tell us about the oil price 06 BIG ONS Big Data / Uber IPO / Bunzl / Rightmove / JD Sports / NEWS Games Workshop / WH Smith / IWG / Galliford Try 10 GREAT New: Filta / Gulf Keystone Petroleum IDEAS Updates: Hollywood Bowl / WPP / Alpha FMC / National Grid 18 TALKING POINT Higher or lower, how to play the volatile pound 22 MAIN FEATURE The shortcut to diversification 28 INVESTMENT BlackRock Latin American / AEW UK Long Lease REIT / Hipgnosis TRUSTS Songs / Baillie Gifford UK Growth 31 FUNDS The benefits of an ethical approach 34 BOOK REVIEW Accounting For Growth: on the hunt for financial red flags 36 ‘What tax charge will I face at 75 in ASK TOM relation to the lifetime allowance?’ MONEY 38 Profit by giving your investments a spring clean MATTERS 42 UNDER THE BONNET Behind the screen with Ocean Outdoor 45 INDEX Shares, funds, and investment trusts in this issue securities, derivatives or positions with spread betting organisations that they DISCLAIMER have an interest in should first clear their writing with the editor. 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