Mirotic's 80 Million Views
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MIROTIC 80MILLION ISSUE: I recently browse through the internet and found this: But, as you can see there, there was already Keep Your Head Down. So, the video was deleted around 2011+. Someone in tumblr said this “So at this point, we’ve established that the original Mirotic MV was not uploaded on to any of the currently existing SM accounts, and the one which I suspect to be the original has been deleted and the account closed. Instead, we’ve found a non-official version with actual viewing figures! So, was the 80 million possible? Warning: long ass post filled with numbers, statistics and guesswork ahead! Assumption 1: The MV was uploaded on or around the release date of the 4th album,September 26th, 2008. The best source I have seen so far places it on September 21st, 2008. Assumption 2: The MV was removed from Youtube at some point between the injunction being filed on July 31st, 2009 and being reuploaded on SMent’s Youtube channel onNovember 25th, 2009. Why are the dates important? Because it gives Mirotic between 314 and 431 days to accumulate over 80,000,000 views. How does that work out in terms of actual viewing figures? It’s time for a bit of math: 314: average of 254,777 viewers a day. (80,000,000 / 314) 431: average of 185,615 viewers a day. (80,000,000 / 431) Quite a lot, isn’t it? So what is the likelihood of achieving these numbers? For this I’m going to be referencing the sumberlosy Mirotic upload, simply because it’s the one I’ve seen linked to the most, and it actually has been captured by the Wayback Machine. Here is the data: Uploaded September 21st, 2008 Sep 24th, 2008 :: 178,284 :: 44,571 views per day Dec 04th, 2008 :: 812,758 :: 10,837 views per day Dec 17th, 2008 :: 914,311 :: 10,390 views per day Jan 22nd, 2009 :: 1,192,371 :: 9,616 views per day Jan 24th, 2009 :: 1,205,470 :: 9,567 views per day Those averages are a bit misleading, because the average views were actually decreasing. During the period Dec 04 to Dec 17 they averaged 7,812 views per day, and during the period Jan 22 to Jan 24 they averaged 6,550. This will be useful later. Anyway, what do those numbers tell us and why are they useful to us? Because we can plot these data points on a graph and see exactly how it was performing, and how many views it was likely to get after the last capture. First though, let’s have a look at the Youtube statistics for two recent popular songs, Super Junior’s “Mr Simple”, and SNSD’s “The Boys (Korean Version)” (note that these are captures from Youtube’s official statistics). Two things to note here: 1) the surge of viewers just after release, and 2) the way that the view count stabilises into a broadly linear pattern (i.e. straight line). This becomes even more apparent if you look at older videos, such as Super Junior’s “Sorry Sorry”, and SNSD’s “Gee” (currently the highest views for a k-pop MV). Again, the viewer count is broadly linear. There are no sudden increases or decreases. So how did Mirotic do? (click for bigger) This is the graphical representation of the views on the sumberlosy video. The blue line shows the trend, and the diamonds are the actual data points. You can see the first capture on September 24th is actually an anomaly - after an initial surge, the viewing figuresstabilised. Doesn’t it look familiar to the graphs above? So from those four months worth of data, we can gather that Mirotic performed roughly in line with other videos. So, what if we were to extend those figures beyond the data points? (click for bigger) This is what we get if we extend the graph. The three lines each represent the range of likely views, based on the average daily views. The yellow line is the upper range, with 9,567 a day (avg. from upload to last data point), the red line is the middle range, with 6,550 a day(avg. of last two data points), and the blue line is the lower range, with 4,484 a day(assumes the viewer amount continues to drop by the same percentage difference between the high and mid range avg.). The first diamond on day 314 is the date the injunction was filed. The second diamond is on day 431, which is the day the video was reuploaded. So the video was removed at some time between these two points. How does this work out in terms of estimated viewing figures? If we take the mid range figures to be the most likely, this would be between 2,436,776 and 3,203,068. Nowhere even remotely near 80 million. Finally, just for fun, how do those figures look next to what it would take for it to achieve 80 million? (click for bigger) The video would need to perform between the two upper dashed lines to reach 80 million, but you can see the actual performance just inching off the bottom axis. This graph really doesn’t need further explanation. So what has this proved? Same as in Part 1, absolutely nothing. Unless someone comes forth to say exactly which video had the views and there is an accurate capture of it taken shortly before it was removed, we have no way to verify whether the 80 million was achieved or not. The point of this was just to try and show how monumentally unlikely it is that those views were achieved, especially during a time in which Youtube was not as widely used as it is now, nor was the Hallyu wave even remotely as big. Is it possible that Mirotic somehow,somewhere, achieved 80 million views on a single video? The answer will be yes. Is it evenremotely likely? Judging from the evidence I have found so far, and the statistics and analysis presented above - no. Another tumblr account uploaded this Yes, to those people who claim db5k never hit that many views. THEY did. I was a fan long before Mirotic, so when they hit this number on youtube I distinctively remember cassies going buck wild. No lie. I also remember the day SM removed ALL of their videos from Youtube in 2009 after the lawsuit began and replacing the tags with just UKNOW and MAX. Hurt/hurts like bitch. And yet, so many people claim it never happened. Well he’s your proof. Eat it. But regardless, if they believe it or not, who the fuck cares?? We know it happened, we saw it with our own eyes, they know it happened. End of story. Anyone beyond that point shouldn’t matter. I said this: I was browsing through SM’s Channel and found this: SM was surely weird, I saw ‘HUG’ and it was uploaded on November 19th. Mirotic was uploaded a few days after. The real album was released on 26th September 2008 and around 314 days after it, the lawsuit began. They began to delete videos around day 314-431 and supposedly reuploaded it again on Nov 19. Nowadays, people are so smart to photoshop it a little bit to do that. I believe that it caused most of the ‘non-believer’ exist. I hate to admit that the chance of Mirotic’s 80 Million views is 50-50. But, regardless of what really happened, I always keep the faith of TVXQ. TVXQ is always five, never two nor three. .