INTERNATIONAL Paradoxes of Egyptian-Saudi relations KEY POINTS and have experienced troubled ­relations n The backbone of the so-called moderate pro-US Arab bloc in the Middle East is comprised of Egypt in the past as they vied for influence in the­. David and Saudi Arabia. Schenker and Simon Henderson examine how ­improvements in n Relations between the two states have ­historically been as strained as they have been cordial, but ties ­bilateral relations and a fear of a nuclear Iran have also resulted are increasingly underpinned by sound economic inter-dependence. in strengthening the unprecedented expansion of links between n While there is common interest on a number of the two countries. strategic issues, such as confronting Iran, the future of relations will not necessarily be a continuation of the present.

uring the 1960s, Egypt and Sau- rapprochement between Egypt and the dynamic temporarily changed. di Arabia fought an eight-year Saudi Arabia and a burgeoning politi- However, after Egypt was readmitted Dproxy war in Yemen so fierce cal co-ordination in countering Iranian to the in 1989, it resumed that Egypt repeatedly deployed chemi- inroads into the Arab Middle East, par- its pre-eminent role in the organisa- cal weapons against its Saudi-backed ticularly Iraq, Lebanon and the Pales- tion. Today, continues to control adversaries, the Yemeni royalists. tinian territories. But improvements the agenda of the Arab League via Sec- Fifty years on, the revolutionary in the bilateral relationship have also retary General Amr Moussa. Even so, ideology of Egypt’s former president, resulted in the unprecedented expan- over the past decade, Egypt’s stature Gamal Abdel Nasser, is a distant sion of the already significant econom- and regional influence have dimin- memory and while Cairo and Riyadh ic links between the states. Today, as ished, with Saudi Arabia filling the gap. have since periodically engaged in Saudi Arabia has historically bristled non-lethal competition for the mantle ‘Saudi Arabia has at Egypt’s influential role in the region. of Arab leadership, today regional de- This dynamic was encapsulated by velopments – in particular the ascend- ­historically bristled Henry Kissinger, the former secretary ance of Iran – have conspired to bring of state, in his memoir, Years of Upheav- the Sunni, pro-US authoritarian states at Egypt’s influential al, where he described a 1973 meeting closer. role in the region’ with then Saudi monarch King Faisal. As recently as June 2009, President At one point in the meeting, Kissinger Hosni Mubarak and King Abdullah bin much as politics, economics underpin referred to then Egyptian President An- Abdul Aziz Al Saud met twice within Saudi-Egyptian ties. war Sadat as “the leader of the ”, three days. On 28 June, the two leaders eliciting a chilly response. “His Majes- met in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, and on 30 History of competition ty’s morose reaction showed there was June, they met again in the Egyptian re- By virtue of its size and history, Egypt a limit beyond which claims to Arab sort town of Sharm el-Sheikh. Official- has long played a significant role on the solidarity could not be pushed,” Kiss- ly, on both occasions the talks focused Arab stage. The Arab League was estab- inger wrote. on the Middle East peace process and lished in Cairo in 1945 and although Since then, the balance between the establishment of an independent Saudi Arabia was among its founding Egypt and Saudi Arabia over the lead- Palestinian state. However, during the members, the organisation has largely ership of the Arab world has shifted in second meeting they were joined by been dominated by Egypt. Indeed, five the kingdom’s favour. This is partly a King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bah- of the seven secretaries general of the reflection of the growing lethargy of rain, the majority Shia Persian Gulf Arab League have hailed from Egypt. President Mubarak, but also the surge state that in the past had been claimed With Saudi Arabia’s rise during the of Saudi Arabia’s financial prowess, a by Iran. 1970s oil boom and Egypt’s subsequent consequence of the high oil prices, lit- A shared perception of the threat expulsion from the Arab League fol- tle-dented by the 2008/09 global eco- posed by a nuclear Iran has driven a lowing its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, nomic downturn.

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Firm economic footing effectively end the government monop- Arabia is obvious, this exchange has Despite the political rivalry, over the oly held by Telecom Egypt. also resulted in some negative social past three decades Saudi Arabia and As of March 2009, Rachid said that ramifications for Cairo. John R Bradley, Egypt established strong economic ties. around 2,500 Saudi companies in the author of Inside Egypt: The Land of The kingdom provides many opportu- Egypt had invested almost USD11 bil- the Pharaohs on the Brink of a Revolu- nities for Egyptian labour, only par- lion. At the same time, Egypt and Saudi tion, writes that “millions” of Egyptians tially through legal work visas. Egyp- Arabia are in the process of linking have chosen to live in Saudi Arabia, of- tians who remain in the kingdom after their electricity grids through a 1,500 ten with their wives and children. He completing Hajj (Muslim pilgrimage) km line. When the construction has points out that the strict and intoler- can always find work. In the other di- been completed, Cairo and Riyadh will ant Wahhabi education the children rection, Egypt is an attractive place for be able to exchange power, helping have received has consequences when Saudi Arabians to vacation abroad: it is both countries to meet local demands the families return home, leading to an Arab country; the Saudi riyal goes a at peak hours. further tension in the Muslim/Coptic long way; and it is more conservative Christian divide in Egypt. The Gulf’s than Lebanon (the other major Arab Crises and goodwill gestures social influence is evident to anyone tourist destination for Saudis) – and is With a population of 83 million, Egypt who has spent time in Cairo, most visi- certainly more politically stable. has long served as an important source bly through the niqab (the full veil that According to Egyptian Minister of of labour for Saudi Arabia. Although reveals only a woman’s eyes), which Trade and Labour Rachid Mohamed reliable statistics are difficult to come was rarely seen in the vicinity of the Rachid, since 2004, bilateral trade be- but has now become ubiquitous. tween the two states has increased by ‘Cairo and Riyadh Other, long-term consequences of 350 per cent. Today, Saudi Arabia is such religious and cultural influences both Egypt’s largest Arab export desti- ­experienced a crisis remain to be seen. nation and source of imports. In 2008, in relations when an The movement of Egyptian labour- Cairo’s exports to Saudi Arabia reached ers has at times caused problems in USD926 million (up from USD600 ­Egyptian ­doctor was the bilateral relationship. In November million in 2007), while imports from 2008, Cairo and Riyadh temporarily the kingdom totalled USD2.6 billion. arrested for allegedly experienced a crisis in relations when Saudi exports to Egypt are on track to turning a ­Saudi princess an Egyptian doctor was arrested for al- surpass USD3 billion in 2009. Taken legedly turning a Saudi princess into together, this USD3.5 billion in 2008 into a drug addict’ a drug addict by overprescribing pain bilateral trade represents more than a medications. Another physician was third of Egypt’s commerce in the Arab by, according to Abdel Monem Said, incarcerated for allegedly having extra- world. chairman of Egypt’s Al Ahram Centre marital relations with female patients. Saudi investment in Egypt is also for Political and Strategic Studies, there The arrests – and one of the medic’s considerable. From 1970 to 2007 – are currently more than one million subsequent sentence of 1,500 lashes at years that encompassed the “boycott” Egyptians living and working in the a rate of 10 to 15 per week to be ad- of Cairo by Arab League states – Saudi kingdom, and around 400,000 Saudis ministered during a 15-year sentence Arabia was the single largest investor residing in Egypt. Although in 2009 the – sparked a popular outcry in Cairo, in Egypt. The details tell the story. In global economic slowdown resulted in resulting in a temporary suspension of 2008, Riyadh established its second in- a reported 75,000 persons, including a travel permits for Egyptian doctors to vestment firm in Cairo. The Construc- substantial number of Egyptians, los- Saudi Arabia. Egyptian Minister of La- tion Project Holding Company (CPC), ing lucrative jobs in the Gulf States, bour Aisha Abdel Hadi subsequently with an investment of USD120 million, Saudi Arabia continues to be a leading announced that a blacklist of 26 Saudi is expected to bring 2,500 jobs to Egypt, source of Egypt’s USD9.5 billion in ex- firms accused of “deliberately mistreat- where the official unemployment rate patriate remittances. In 2007/08, these ing Egyptians” had been established. hovers around 10 per cent. Currently, wages constituted 11 per cent of Egyp- However, within weeks Cairo was Saudi companies are bidding to install tian income sent from abroad. working to soothe tensions. The Egyp- a fixed-line phone system in Egypt, While the economic benefits of tian Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul a contract that when awarded will Egyptian expatriate workers in Saudi Gheit urged that the issue be “calmly jiaa.janes.com

ISLAMIC AFFAIRS ANALYST | DECEMBER 2009 jiaa.janes.com | 9 INTERNATIONAL

discussed” at official levels. On -3 De could drag on for years. But the Egyp- his stand, and appears to have tempered cember, after signing a protocol on tians are clearly excited at the prospect. Saudi demands on Hariri. Ongoing Syr- labour rights for Egyptian workers in In a March 2009 article in the pan Arab ian efforts to prevent the formation of a Saudi Arabia, Cairo lifted the ban on daily Asharq al Awsat (a paper owned by government in Beirut led by Saad Hariri, doctors’ travel. The rapprochement was Saudi Arabia), Abdel Monem Said wrote at least as perceived in Riyad and Cairo, sealed two days later when President that Riyadh supported the inclusion of are likely to bring the Egyptian and Mubarak travelled to Saudi Arabia for a Egypt in the GCC . Saudi positions on Lebanon and Syria ceremony inaugurating two high-speed closer. ferries – a USD130 million gift to Egypt Minor political differences In regards to Syria’s role in Lebanon, from the kingdom. As concerns about regional nuclear Egypt and Saudi Arabia seemed to have Not only will the ferries ensure saf- proliferation have spiked, Saudi Arabia agreed to disagree, but broad co-opera- er travel for Egyptian expatriates – in and Egypt have shelved their rivalry in tion continues based on common inter- 2006 a ferry sank in the Red Sea killing favour of establishing a unified front ests and a shared regional threat percep- almost 1,000 Egyptian labourers – they against Iran. However, on other issues tion. But how much of that is due to the will cut travel time between the states there is less unanimity of purpose, espe- characters of Mubarak and Abdullah, by five hours, facilitating the movement cially on Lebanon and Syria. old and perhaps ailing men, who believe of workers. In August 2009, the UK- Cairo continues to view Damascus they respectively control their country’s owned Vodaphone Egypt cut roaming with distain, not only because of its 30- destiny? The answer is probably a lot. rates in Saudi Arabia by 50 per cent, year strategic relationship with Tehran There could be a challenge to the fu- further improving the quality of life for ture of the relationship unless republican these expatriate workers. Egypt has a ‘royal’ succession to Mubar- ‘Saudi Arabia and ak’s son, Gamal. Saudi Arabia is heading Potential structural changes? Egypt have shelved for another senior member of the Al-Saud, In addition to strong trade, labour and perhaps the ailing Crown Prince Bandar investment sectors, Cairo and Riyadh their ­rivalry in favour of bin Sultan (85) or Prince Nayef (76), who are currently in talks centred on how also said not be in the best health. If Egypt the states can implement the provisions ­establishing a unified chooses a younger leader, there will be a contained in the first Arab Economic front against Iran’ generation gap, exacerbated by a likely Summit, convened in in Janu- series of short-reign monarchs in Saudi ary 2009. The states are focused on the and its support for Hizbullah (which ac- Arabia. Co-operation could be replaced goal, announced in Kuwait, to establish cording to Egyptian intelligence services by competition. an Arab Customs Union by 2015, al- and media established a cell in Egypt in However, in the near term, the out- though this ambitious plan may never 2008) but also because Syria persists in look for continued robust economic and reach fruition. undermining the Hamas-Fatah govern- political co-operation and co-ordination Meanwhile, Egypt and Saudi Arabia ment of national unity that Cairo has between the states is good. Cairo’s in- have also been discussing the near-term been endeavouring to foster. vestment opportunities and Riyadh’s ex- inclusion of Egypt as a member of the For its part, Riyadh is more pragmatic cess capital form the basis of a symbiotic (GCC) Cus- in relation to Damascus. King Abdul- relationship, complemented (at least for toms Union, a move that would facilitate lah paid a visit to Syria in early October the time being) by a coincidence of inter- the free movement of Egyptian labour- 2009. In its effort to improve ties with est on the Iranian threat and the Israeli- ers on the peninsula. Indeed, when the Syria, Saudi Arabia has been encourag- Palestinian peace process. n Egyptian Minister of Labour Rachid was ing Lebanon’s prime minister-designate in Saudi Arabia in March 2009, he boast- Saad Hariri to travel to Damascus and Further Analysis ed that Riyadh and Cairo were “the first reconcile with President Bashar Al- n Islamists and the succession in two Arab states in negotiations to open Assad. The problem is that Syria is the Egypt Islamic Affairs Analyst, 20 August 2009 labour markets” as discussed during the leading suspect in the 2005 assassina- n Saudi king makes key visit to Kuwait summit. tion of Saad’s father, former Lebanese Syria Jane’s Intelligence Weekly, 7 October 2009 Given the slow pace of decision mak- premier Rafiq Hariri. Saad Hariri is un- ing in the Gulf, discussions between derstandably loath to make the pilgrim- This article was first published ­online at jiaa.janes.com on 8 Egypt and Saudi Arabia on this issue age. Cairo is supporting Saad Hariri in ­October 2009

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