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From Pnoy to Prody: Where Is the Philippines Headed To?

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From Pnoy to Prody: Where Is the Philippines Headed To? From PNoy to PRody: Where is the Philippines headed to? Ronald D. Holmes Department of Political and Social Change Coral Bell School of Asia and the Pacific 15 June 2016 OUTLINE • Where we are coming from? • Hitting the ground running? • Implications for the bureaucracy • Defining transition? THE OUTGOING PRESIDENT AND ADMINISTRATION PERFORMANCE RATINGS OF PRESIDENT BENIGNO S. AQUINO III October 2010 to March 2016 / Philippines Approve Undecided Disapprove 100 90 80 79 77 78 78 79 74 73 73 70 71 72 70 72 70 67 66 68 68 60 59 56 55 55 54 54 52 50 49 40 3839 34 31 33 30 28 30 30 30 30 30 24 25 21 21 23 22 22 23 20 18 18 18 19 18 19 18 18 16 17 16 15 14 14 14 12 10 9910 10 11 7 8 6666777 8 3 4 4 0 TRUST RATINGS OF PRESIDENT BENIGNO S. AQUINO III October 2010 to April 2016 / Philippines Big Trust Undecided Small/No Trust 90 80 80 78 80 77 76 75 75 74 74 71 72 69 68 69 68 69 70 65 60 56 53 54 53 50 49 49 50 45 39 40 40 3637 36 37 34 33 33 32 31 31 31 30 30 26 25 24 25 22 23 23 22 27 28 20 19 18 24 20 17 17 16 17 17 17 21 21 15 16 15 14 13 13 10 10 9 8 99 6 7 6 7 7 7 5 44 5 5 0 2 COMPARATIVE APPROVAL RATINGS OF PRESIDENTS ESTRADA, ARROYO & AQUINO May 1999 to March 2016 / Philippines Estrada Arroyo Aquino 100 80 79 79 77 7878 74 74 72 72 73 73 71 70 70 68 68 67 66 63 63 61 60 59 57 5757 55 5655 55 53 53 54 53 54 51 52 49 50 50 49 49 47 45 4645 45 41 41 40 38 38 29 3030 28 27 25 262625 2626 24 23 23 22 21 20 19 16 14 0 Jul '10 Jul Oct'10 Apr'13 Jul '06 Jul '08 Jul Jul '00 Jul Jul '02 Jul '05 Jul '07 Jul Jan'13 Jun'13 Jun'14 Jan'16 Mar'11 Mar'12 Feb'13 Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15 Aug'11 Nov'11 Sep'12 Nov'12 Sep'13 Dec'13 Sep'14 Nov'14 Sep'15 Dec'15 Oct '08 Oct '00 Oct '09 Apr '01 Apr Oct '01 '02 Apr Oct '04 Oct '05 '07 Apr Oct '07 Apr '03 Apr May'11 May'12 Jun '01 Jun '04 Jan '04 Jun '05 Jun Feb '09 Mar '10 Mar '16 Mar Mar '01 Mar Feb '04 '05 Mar '06 Mar '07 Mar '08 Mar Mar '00 Mar Dec '00 Dec '06 Nov '09 Aug Sep '99 Sep '99 Dec Dec '01 Dec Nov '02 Nov '03 Aug '03 Sep '03 Nov May '09 May May '99 May May '01 May MOST URGENT NATIONAL CONCERNS November 2014 to March 2016 / Philippines (Multiple Response Allowed / In Percent) PR1&2 National Concerns Nov14 Mar15 Jun15 Sep15 Dec15 Mar16 Change* Improving / Increasing the pay of workers 46 44 46 47 42 42 0 Reducing poverty of many Filipinos 40 37 35 32 38 39 + 1 Controlling inflation 52 46 47 46 45 38 - 7 Creating more jobs 30 34 36 37 34 36 + 2 Fighting graft and corruption 36 40 39 39 34 33 - 1 in government Fighting criminality 26 22 20 25 25 29 + 4 Enforcing the law on all, whether 19 19 16 16 16 17 + 1 influential or ordinary people Increasing peace in the country 19 22 21 18 19 16 - 3 Reducing the amount of taxes paid --- --- --- --- 11 13 + 2 Stopping the destruction and 15 13 15 13 12 10 - 2 abuse of our environment Controlling fast population growth 8 9 9 11 7 7 0 Defending the integrity of 4 5 7 7 4 6 + 2 Philippine territory against foreigners Protecting the welfare of OFWs --- --- --- --- 7 6 - 1 Changing the Constitution 444435+ 2 Preparing to face any kind of terrorism --- 5 4 3 34+ 1 *Change = Figures of March 2016 minus Figures December 2015. COMPARATIVE APPROVAL RATINGS OF THE NATIONAL ADMINISTRATION ON SELECTED NATIONAL ISSUES October 2010 to March 2016 / Philippines Approval Change* Oct Mar May Nov Mar May Sep Nov Mar Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Nov Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Mar16 - 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 Dec15 Selected National Issues (A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) (S) (T) (T - S) Protecting the welfare of OFWs --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 51 51 52 51 - 1 Responding to the needs of areas --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 49 49 --- --- 49 49 0 affected by calamities Fighting criminality 6254605357566667636058595453474550444548+ 3 Fighting graft and corruption 57 56 56 56 60 58 64 65 59 47 45 50 42 43 45 42 47393646+10 in government Enforcing the law on all, whether 58 49 57 53 57 52 59 64 58 54 52 50 44 43 41 41 45 39 40 42 + 2 influential or ordinary people Increasing peace in the country 56 53 57 50 52 50 57 63 52 46 48 52 50 46 45 40 43 46 48 41 - 7 Stopping the destruction and 51 48 50 49 46 41 50 60 51 50 41 48 46 42 45 48 39 43 44 41 - 3 abuse of our environment Defending the integrity of Philippine --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- 48 47 48 50 43 39 43 46 40 - 6 territory against foreigners Creating more jobs 59 48 53 48 41 41 51 55 50 45 41 41 37 34 37 37 36 37 35 37 + 2 Improving/Increasing the 56 48 51 43 40 42 51 56 45 43 36 38 36 28 32 33 31 33 31 37 + 6 pay of workers Controlling inflation 4537393228283940393428262622242924241925+ 6 Reducing the poverty of 47 41 40 32 32 29 39 44 39 39 31 30 32 26 28 28 26 28 25 24 - 1 many Filipinos *Change = Figures of March 2016 minus Figures of December 2015. MISCELLANEOUS PROBES: AGREEMENT / DISAGREEMENT WITH TEST STATEMENTS March 2015 to March 2016 / Philippines (In Percent) TEST STATEMENT Agree Undecided Disagree CURRENT CONDITION OF Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar GOVERNMENT CORRUPTION 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 16 15 15 15 15 16 We can still successfully fight the 59 61 59 57 60 16 18 16 21 18 25 21 25 22 21 corruption of officials in using public funds. TUWID NA DAAN President Aquino is/has been fulfilling --- 35 40 36 35 --- 44 35 40 37 --- 21 24 24 28 his promise to follow a straight path. MARTIAL LAW Candidly speaking, it may be necessary 17 19 20 22 19 17 14 20 22 14 65 67 60 56 67 now to have martial law to solve the many crises of the nation. HOPELESSNESS AND INTENTION TO MIGRATE This country is hopeless. 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 8 11 11 85 85 86 83 82 If it were only possible, I would --- 11 12 15 14 --- 14 16 22 18 --- 75 72 62 68 migrate to another country and live there. Note: % Agree = % Very M uch Agree plus % Agree; % Disagree = % Disagree plus % Very M uch Disagree HIT THE GROUND RUNNING: ENTER “PRODY/PDIGONG” OFFICIAL RESULTS 16,601,997 39% 9,978,175 23.4% 9,100,991 21.4% 5,416,140 12.7% 1,466,532 3.4% 2016 PRESIDENTIAL PRE-ELECTION PREFERENCES BINAY DEFENSOR-SANTIAGO DUTERTE POE ROXAS Don't Know/Refused/None 40 35 35 34 33 33 33 32 30 30 30 30 28 28 27 26 26 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 19 21 21 19 20 20 20 20 17 20 19 19 19 17 16 18 16 18 15 15 17 17 14 12 10 9 10 6 5 6 6 4 4 55 5 5 3 43 3 3 3 44443 4 34 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 1 UB UB JUN UB SEP UB DEC PNB PNB ABS 2- ABS 3- ABS 3- UB ABS 3- ABS 3- ABS 4- ABS 4- PNB 4- ABS 4- APRI MAR 15 15 15 15 JAN 16 FEB 16 16-27 1-6 16 8-13 16 MAR 16 15-20 29 4-3 5-10 16 12-17 16 19-24 26-29 16 16 16 16 Securing Congressional Support • Identified speaker of the 17th Congress, Davao del Norte 1st District Representative Pantaleon ”Bebot” Alvarez • Alliance between PDP-Laban, Lakas, NPC, NUP and majority of LP representatives • Senate leadership to PDP Laban’s Pimentel 8 Point agenda 1. Continue and maintain the current macroeconomic policies. Reforms in tax revenue collection efforts will be complemented by reforms within the bureaucracy of tax collecting agencies. 2. Accelerate spending on infrastructure by addressing major bottlenecks, and maintain the target of setting aside 5% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP) to infrastructure spending. 3. Ensure attractiveness of the Philippines to foreign investors, and enhancing competitiveness in doing business in the country. This also means reducing crime to attract investors, and increase security of businessmen and consumers. 4. Provide support services to small farmers to increase productivity and improve market access.
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