ADAPTATION ACTIONS FOR A CHANGING

BAFFIN BAY / OVERVIEW REPORT The following is a short Describing the BBDS region description of what can be The BBDS region includes parts of , which is a found in this overview report territory in Canada and the western part of , an and the underlying AACA science autonomous part of the Kingdom of . These two report for the /Davis land areas are separated by the Baffin Bay to the north and Davis Strait to the south. The report describes the Strait (BBDS) region. entire region including the significant differences that are found within the region; in the natural environment and in political, social and socioeconomic aspects.

Climate change in the BBDS This section describes future climate conditions in the BBDS region based on multi-model assessments for the region. It describes what can be expected of temperature rise, future precipitation, wind speed, snow cover, ice sheets and ice formations. Further it describes expected -surface temperatures, changing sea-levels and projections for permafrost thawing.

2 Martin Fortier / ArcticNet. Community of , Nunavut, Canada Nunavut, of Community Iqaluit, ArcticNet. / Fortier Martin

Socio-economic conditions Laying the foundations This section gives an overview of socio-economic for adaptation conditions in the BBDS region including the economy, The report contain a wealth of material to assist decision- demographic trends, the urbanization and the makers to develop tools and strategies to adapt to future infrastructure in the region. The report shows that the changes. This section lists a number of overarching Greenland and the Canadian side of the region have informative and action-oriented elements for adaptation diff erent socio-economic starting points about how and the science report gives more detailed information. to adapt to future development.

Concluding remarks The impacts of change This section sums up and describes point to the fact that Environmental changes and socio-economic factors adaptation is a complex issue and strategies to meet the will have profound impacts on people living in the future need to refl ect a broader context than climate BBDS region, which will interact with each other in change alone. The report point to essential factors for ways that will be complex and diffi cult to anticipate. adaptation and the relative importance of these will The report describes such impacts for seven themes; vary depending on scale and context. human health, education, non-living resources, living resources, tourism, shipping and infrastructure.

3 Introduction

In 2011, the Arctic Council requested the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) to: “produce information to assist local decision makers and stakeholders in three pilot Bering - in developing adaptation Chukchi - tools and strategies to better deal with Beaufort climate change and other pertinent Barents environmental stressors”.

Following significant interactions with both the Arctic science and decision-making communities, AMAP’s Baffin response to this request led to the Bay establishment of a new initiative called

Adaptation Actions for a Changing Davis Arctic (AACA). This initiative provides Strait integrated stakeholder engagement and science-based information AACA terrestrial regions Bering, Chukchi, Beaufort (BCB) Baffin Bay, Davis Strait (BBDS) Barents Figure 1: The three AACA pilot regions. that can ultimately be synthesized AACA marine regions BCB BBDS Barents Large marine ecosystem (LMEs) boundaries and translated into knowledge that is useful and useable for making effective adaptation actions within a DEFINING ADAPTATION rapidly changing Arctic. Furthermore, the AACA is structured to promote The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines adaptation as: “The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. stakeholder engagement, including In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit participation from many different beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may professional and public communities facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects”.1 For the purposes in the identification of the most of this study, we also consider non-climate drivers of change. relevant issues and challenges associated with a changing Arctic.

Three regions, Baffin Bay/Davis Strait, This information, which combines 1 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary Barents and Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort, scientific and available traditional and [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and were chosen for an initial pilot phase. local knowledge, forms a knowledge C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: These three regions were chosen base that can be used to better Synthesis Report. Contribution to provide a diverse range of socio- inform adaptation actions being of Working Groups I, II and III economic and ecological conditions, taken by the decision-makers. Thus, to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental as well as to include as many Arctic the AACA is truly an iterative process Panel on Climate Change. Council nations as possible. between the stakeholder, scientific, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, indigenous and local communities, pp. 117-130 Each of the three regional reports focused on providing a sustained level provides a scientific assessment of updated information for a diverse of the types and state of changes array of local, regional, national and within the specific regions, along international audiences. with a discussion of current levels of change, and the related impacts, This overview report is based upon effects and consequences of these the scientific assessment for the Baffin changes, past, present and future. Bay/Davis Strait (BBDS) region.

4 Difficulties in finding the most appropriate actions to respond to climate change are compounded by the fact that climate is not the only driver of change in the region. A common feature is the need to build flexibility and adjust to increasing variability and new extremes – considering the cumulative impacts of weather or/and other socio-economic drivers.

Based on dialogue with stakeholders in the region, including representatives of the public and private sectors, and residents in both Greenland and Canada, seven themes were chosen for analysis: Living resources; Non- living resources (such as mineral extraction); Education; Human health and well-being; Tourism; Shipping and Infrastructure. For each of the themes, the authors considered the current knowledge regarding climate change and other stressors, and described potential options for future planning and actions.

It is important to note, however, that adaptation has its limits, both in the rate and the amplitude of change that can be accommodated. Mitigation actions at national and international levels will improve the chances of successful adaptation to Arctic climate change by local/regional actors, by decreasing the rate of change to which ecosystems and human systems must adapt, and by eventually limiting the ultimate amplitude of that change. While acknowledging the importance of continued climate change mitigation efforts, the emphasis of AACA is on identifying adaption options.

Shutterstock / , Greenland Bay, / Disko Shutterstock 5 Lawrence Hislop / www.grida.no/resources/1087. Uummannaq, Greenland

Describing the Baffi n Bay/ Davis Strait Region The Baffi n Bay/Davis Strait (BBDS) region includes most of the administrative region in the eastern part of of Nunavut, which is a territory in Canada and the western part of Greenland, an autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Between these land areas are Baffi n Bay to the north and Davis Strait to the south. Although the entire BBDS region is inside the Arctic climate zone, signifi cant differences are found within the region; in the natural environment and in political, social and socioeconomic aspects.

While Nunavut and Greenland share a range of qualitatively On the Greenland side, open water south of Disko Bay (usually similar challenges, they must also engage in adaptation with unconsolidated ice), a productive ecosystem, and deep- actions from two very diff erent points of departure. water ports, allow for an intensive fi shery, carried out both Most notably there are important diff erences in terms of with modern trawlers in the off shore waters and smaller boats demography, distribution of population, migration, degree of and dinghies in the inshore parts. This industry has been the industrialization and infrastructure that mean that Greenland main vehicle of a comprehensive industrialization that has and Nunavut may have diff erent adaptation priorities. transformed Greenlandic society dramatically since the 1960s. However, it does not sustain the entire Greenlandic economy The majority of the population of the BBDS is . The and a primary concern for the Greenlandic self-government Greenlandic population in the region is approximately is how to ensure current standards of modern welfare and 52,500, more than twice the population of the Nunavut side, further economic growth and independence – e.g. by means of around 19,500. With approximately 17,000 inhabitants of economic diversifi cation. Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, is double the size of Iqaluit, the largest town in Nunavut, with approximately 7,500 On the Nunavut side, marine resources are generally exploited inhabitants. The population on the Nunavut side is also on a subsistence harvest basis, and mining plays a large role, distributed among far fewer communities (nine) compared constituting 18% of Nunavut’s gross domestic product in 2014. with the Greenlandic side (64 towns and settlements). Employment is largely provided by the Federal and Territorial governments, tourism and mineral exploration. Traditional

6 have access to a more developed The diff erences in the natural air- and sea-based transport and environment are mainly governed by communication infrastructure. the sea surface currents, which brings relatively warm water from the Atlantic Nunavut’s off ers up along the West Greenland coast. primary, secondary and post-secondary This has a profound infl uence on the education, but there is no university in conditions, where a large part the Canadian Arctic. School graduation of West Greenland remains ice free or rates in Nunavut are slowly improving without consolidated ice throughout but, at 57 per cent, remain the lowest the year allowing navigation even in in Canada. Greenland off ers a range winter. In contrast to this, the Nunavut of secondary, college and university side is blocked by sea ice often until education, and the trend here is also mid-summer. towards improved levels of education; the number of Greenlandic youth with Terrestrial mammals on the Greenland a completed education above primary side of the region include fox, hare, school has increased by 6 percent to and caribou. Wolves, stoats, muskoxen around 15,000 persons, (or 34 per cent and lemming are also found in the of the population) from 2003 to 2013 northernmost part of the region. On activities such as hunting, trapping, the Canadian side, the number of The Baffi n Bay Davis Strait region is fi shing and gathering, as well as arts mammal species is higher, with the largely made up of mountains and and crafts, are important for providing occurrence of an additional species of open tundra, with sparse vegetation. households with food, income and a lemming, the wolverine Gulo gulo, and The Nunavut side is classifi ed as connection with the environment. seven distinct caribou herds. continuous permafrost, while the Infrastructure is a shared challenge Greenlandic side is considerably The marine environment supports throughout the region. But towns, warmer, meaning that the ground in one of the most productive food settlements and businesses in the the south is mainly seasonally frozen or webs in the Arctic, where upwelling Greenlandic part of the region benefi t discontinuous permafrost, while there along the continental shelf break on from a stronger starting point as they is continuous permafrost further north. the Greenland side brings water and nutrients from the deeper layers to the surface. This attracts marine mammals

Alert and millions of seabirds. The marine

Ellesmere Island fauna is characterized by relatively few

Axel Heiberg but well-adapted species, including sin Island Ba e Greenland n a K seals. The benthic fauna is an exception as the number of species is very high. Pituffik/Thule The regional circulation of Resolute currents has a profound infl uence on La Baffin Bay ncaster Sound t le the coastal climate, helping to create In Pond t Uummannaq n e Inlet g e R milder, low-Arctic conditions along

e Ilulissat c Qeqertarsuaq n i Clyde r P River Aasiaat the West Greenland coast. Kangaatsiaq Sisimiut The marine environment is also Hall Beach Maniitsoq Baffin Island Davis Strait Nuuk characterized by a number of . Foxe Bassin Paamiut Narsaq These are geographically fi xed areas of Nanortalik Cape Dorset Iqaluit year-round open water surrounded by

Kimmirut sea ice. These create refuges for marine Hu ds on St mammals and birds, and allow primary rait Sea production to begin earlier in spring than in ice-covered water. Because of

Labrador Peninsula year-round open water and abundance

Sanikiluaq of marine mammals, the BBDS is attractive to Inuit hunters.

Figure 2: WestThe Greenland BBDS studyQikiqtaaluk area area inside BBDS region Qikiqtaaluk area outside BBDS region Marine areas outside BBDS region 7 Socio-economic conditions

The ability of people within the BBDS region to adapt to the effects of change depends both on the magnitude and speed of the environmental changes they face as well as on socio-economic factors, some of which will, in turn, be infl uenced by climate change.

Foremost among them is the economy, which is challenging Nunavut’s economy grew between 2011 and 2014, before in the BBDS region. After strong growth in the 2000s, shrinking in 2014-15. It is expected to embark upon a Greenland’s economy dipped between 2011 and 2012, and prolonged period of economic growth, driven by fi sheries was fl at over 2012-14, before growing slightly in 2015-16. and tourism. Mining off ers potential for major capital Prospects beyond the existing fi sheries-based economy are investment, while infrastructure projects are also set to uncertain. Declines in global commodity markets means that be a major contributor to growth. earlier optimism about the prospects for the oil and mining Economic factors will also weigh on demographic trends sectors is fading, although there are several licensing rounds in the region. Where birth rates are high In Greenland, and mining projects underway. There is scope for increasing net outmigration has kept the population somewhat value added in fi sheries and tourism, but these activities are constant, while in Nunavut, high birth rates are likely to not likely in themselves to have a decisive growth impact continue the Nunavut trend towards a young and rapidly unless challenges to tourism development are overcome. growing population. The Greenland economy is based primarily on fi shing, Two factors could lead to population infl ows: resource supplemented by tourism and mineral extraction (totalling development and, for Nunavut, devolution of government approximately 3 billion DKK), and the balance supported institutions. Both would likely lead to more non-Inuit moving by a block grant from Denmark, (of 3.64 billion DKK), with to the region. However, in the resource extraction sector, earned income. common practice on the Canadian side is to fl y workers in and out, leading to limited permanent immigration of labor (but also less local economic benefi t). Greenland also plans to fl y in workers for its developing mining industry.

Socioeconomic impacts related to mineral resource development in the region are regulated in accordance with best international practice, and are therefore addressed in social impact assessments prior to major activities taken place. In addition, impact benefi t agreements are negotiated between the mining company, the government and the local municipality(ies) in order to agree on concrete targets related to local involvement, procurement, education and other socio-cultural matters, etc.

Photo: Knud Falk / Upernavik , Greenland Airport, / Upernavik Photo: Knud Falk 8 Photo: Peter Prokosch / www.grida.no/resources/4473. , Canada

Other demographic factors are also at work, including identifi es key actions such as improving air links, urbanization. Iqaluit, the capital of Nunavut, has seen developing strategic deep-water ports, connecting its population steadily grow (by 8.3% between 2006 and communities to resources and responding to the eff ects 2011 according to Statistics Canada) and this trend is likely of climate change that will facilitate access to economic to continue. In Greenland, Nuuk, the capital, has seen a opportunities and put Nunavut on an equal footing with similar pattern, with its population growing 12% between the rest of Canada. 2010 and 2016, although the number of people living in Greenland is seeing steadily improving connectedness. settlements and small towns has declined by almost one The transportation infrastructure is relatively well third since 1999. developed with, currently, two international , a Meanwhile, connectivity with the rest of the world network of domestic airports expanding to most towns, infl uences both economic opportunity and social ports in all major towns and seasonal passenger vessels outcomes. The Canadian side of the BBDS is poorly connecting Southwest Greenland towns. A port authority connected to the rest of the world, with no deep-sea port, is planned to represent 13 ports, including Nuuk, Aasiaat, and only one regional airport able to accommodate the and Sisimiut, facilitating industry and the transportation types of jet typically used for international fl ights. Mobile of goods. In 2009, the cities of Nuuk and Qaqortoq were phone service is limited, and Internet access is via satellite, connected to the Internet through a fi ber cable running and can be very slow and unreliable. Internet access could to Iceland and Canada. The remainder of the west coast become much faster in parts of the Qikiqtaaluk region if is connected to the Internet through a 1410 km chain of the Arctic Fibre project – an underwater fi bre optic cable radio stations and the east coast and northern part of the that will eventually run from Japan to the UK – proceeds Greenlandic west coast is connected via satellite. Even according to plan. many isolated households have satellite-based internet.

Nunavut has a development strategy to improve its transportation network, so connectedness is expected to improve in Nunavut in the coming years. The strategy

9 Climate change in the Baffin Bay/Davis Strait Region

The residents of the BBDS region are living Under two different emissions scenarios (the baseline RCP4.5 and through a period of profound change in the Arctic. the high-emissions RCP8.5 scenarios Regional and global climate projections show that defined by the Intergovernmental future changes will continue to pose significant Panel on Climate Change), BBDS mean near-surface air temperatures are risks, challenges, and opportunities to the health projected to increase in winter by and well-being of both humans and ecosystems. about 1 to 4 °C by 2030 and 1.5 to 10°C Synthesizing the understanding of the changes in by 2080. Summer air temperatures the Arctic climate with other changes in society are projected to increase 0.5 to 2 °C by 2030 and 1 to 5 °C by 2080. Under and the environment informs the range of possible high emission scenarios (RCP 8.5), futures, choices, and actions available to decision- the length of the thawing season is makers of the BBDS region. forecast to increase by about 1 to 2 months by the end of the century.

The ’s climate is warming due The climate projections for the Projections of total precipitation (i.e. to anthropogenic greenhouse gas BBDs region are generally based on rain and snow) show an increase over emissions and will continue to do so multi-model assessments for the most areas, with the largest relative throughout the century. In common entire BBDS region. In addition to changes in winter in the northwestern with other parts of the Arctic, the this, both parts of the region have parts of the region. climate of the BBDS is undergoing produced regional climate data sets, It is difficult to reach clear conclusions rapid change. Recent and continuing specifically a report for Greenland about wind speed trends in the rises in temperature are driving based on downscaling with the Danish BBDS region; adaptation plans should significant impacts and effects to Meteorological Institute climate consider ± 5% changes in mean wind the Arctic cryosphere and , model system, and the Ouranos CRCM. speed for the period 2016-35, and which is in turn having consequences However, the climate data sets for ± 10% changes for 2080-99. on ecosystems and the region’s Greenland and the Canadian side are human inhabitants. somewhat different and therefore difficult to compare.

DEFINING RCP

In the RCP-4.5 scenario (RCP= Representative Concentration Pathways), reductions in emissions lead to stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere by 2100 and a stabilized end-of-century global average temperature rise of 1.7–3.1°C above pre-industrial levels. RCP-8.5 is a high-emission business- as-usual scenario, leading to a global non-stabilized temperature rise of 3.8–6°C by 2100.

10 Higher temperatures will lead to later The sea-surface temperature in the Globally, sea-levels are expected to snowfall, reducing the number of Baffin Bay is expected to warm by rise by 36 to 71cm this century under days of snow cover by the end of the about 0.2°C per decade over the next the baseline scenario (RCP4.5), but in 21st century between 40 and 60 days, 50 years, and will become less saline the BBDS region, they are likely to fall, with reductions more pronounced in as a result of increased precipitation with a range of +10 to -90cm. This is coastal areas. and ice melt run-off. This is expected due to a combination of the decreased to reduce convection depth in winter gravitational pull of a shrunken Maximum snow depths on the and increase stability during the ice- ice sheet, and ‘crustal uplift’, as the Canadian side of the BBDS have free months. The largest reductions land rises as the weight of the ice decreased by an average of 20% in sea ice cover (15-20% by 2080) are sheet diminishes. since 1950. expected during fall and are related The overall picture for the BBDS over Permafrost is projected to warm the to later freeze-up, while a decrease in the next century shows some general most in the coldest areas of the BBDS sea ice cover of 10-15% is expected trends: the atmosphere will be warmer region, and to thaw considerably in in spring due to earlier break-up. and wetter with uncertain changes to warmer areas such as southwestern Winter ice thickness is projected to the winds; the snow cover period will Greenland. decrease by around 20-30cm during be shortened, with decreased snow this century, with the largest decreases depth, while the melting of ice sheets Ice sheets in the region are projected in more northerly regions. to lose mass in the 21st century, with is expected to continue; sea ice will increased melt run-off expected continue to decrease substantially; to double or triple in amount and and changes in ocean circulation and thus outweighing the effects of any mixing are uncertain, but sea level potential increase in snowfall. will fall regionally (but rise globally). There is a significant range of possible Projections from current climate conditions and related effects owing models indicate lake ice will form 5-10 to both uncertainty in what scenario days later by 2050, and break-up will will most closely approximate actual occur 10-15 days earlier compared future global emissions as well as with the late 20th Century. uncertainties in the models and their outputs. Adaptation planning will need to continue to account for these uncertainties and the related range of plausible future conditions.

11 Greenland / Upernavik Isfjord, Photo: Knud Falk The impacts of change

Environmental changes and socio-economic factors will have profound impacts on people living in the BBDS region, and which will interact with each other in ways that will be complex and difficult to anticipate. Based upon feedback from stakeholders, the BBDS regional report focused on seven themes: human health; education; non-living resources; living resources; tourism; shipping; and infrastructure.

Health impacts global commodity markets, with high prices encouraging The health impacts of climate change will be direct, resulting development in frontier areas. Regarding oil and gas from changes in temperatures and/or extreme climate events, or development, current low prices and high infrastructure they may be indirect, resulting from how climate change affects costs make development in the near future unlikely, although livelihoods, infrastructure, wildlife and bacteria and viruses. it remains a long-term goal for Greenland. A number of Direct risks include new vector-borne diseases, an appearance mining projects in Greenland have reached a stage where of diseases such as tetanus that are not currently a problem in permitting has been granted and, in Nunavut, mining is seen the Arctic, and the declining quality of surface water causing as a key part of its future development. problems for drinking water provision in some parts of the Arctic. Within this context, a warming climate may facilitate Changes to precipitation patterns and to the timing of development as a result of improved shipping access, snowmelt will create challenges for water management. For fewer days of extreme cold, and glacier retreat allowing for example, the Geraldine Lake reservoir system, which supplies prospecting. In turn, the development of these industries could Iqaluit and which is already stressed, will be highly sensitive promote related economic development, further driving socio- to changes in spring run-off and timing. Warming may also economic and environmental change in the BBDS region. worsen water quality in residential storage tanks in Nunavut. Climate change would also, however, have negative impacts on resource development. Increased extreme weather Education events, the effects of permafrost thaw on existing and The impacts from climate change on education will be planned infrastructure, reduced availability of winter ice predominantly indirect. These indirect impacts include roads, and changing precipitation regimes affecting water increased outmigration from small communities, and impacts management would all pose challenges for extractive on traditional and local learning and traditional values, which industries in the region. are closely connected to hunting, fishing and gathering activities that are becoming more challenging as a result Living resources of climate change. Development may also have negative Climate change has wide-ranging implications for terrestrial and impacts on traditional and local learning, if knowledge marine wildlife resources. Observed impacts to date have been holders are increasingly employed in situations that regularly mostly negative, relating to reduced availability or accessibility take them away from community and family. of traditionally harvested resources. However, benefits of climate The evolving economy of the region is also impacting on the change have also been noted, including expanding open waters education system in the BBDS. In Greenland, for example, and new fisheries opportunities, and increasing abundance and educational institutions are making efforts to adapt to availability of some marine mammals. climate-related drivers by offering new educational programs These benefits may be short-lived, depending on future changes in areas such as natural resources, tourism, etc. to support to ecosystems as a result of continuing climate change. sectors that that might benefit from a changing climate. Industrial activities may also add stress to Arctic species. Increased Non-living resources underwater noise can disturb the migration of marine mammals Of most impact on the potential for mining and oil and and affect their health due to increased levels of stress, while, if gas extraction in the BBDS will be developments in not properly regulated, contaminants released from mining can

12 aff ect locally harvested foods. Industrial developments can also Shipping directly confl ict with harvesting activities. However, long-range Less sea ice in the region is extending the navigable season pollution from the industrialized world, especially mercury, for shipping, creating opportunities for new shipping is the most signifi cant pollution threat at present to locally routes, increasing accessibility for larger fi shing and cruise harvested foods in the region. ships, and increasing the viability of northern ports. These The management of living resources within the BBDS will changes have the potential to facilitate mining and oil be a signifi cant mediator of the impacts of climate change, and gas development by reducing shipping costs and in that it will enable economic opportunities to be seized improving accessibility, and could provide opportunities that will off set some of the negative eff ects of change, for economic development in BBDS communities, as well benefi tting local communities and the Greenlandic and as improving the ability of delivering supplies, especially Nunavut economies at large. in Nunavut where the seasonal sealift is the main access- route with a limited ice free window for operation. Tourism Although changing sea-ice extent is recognised as a driver As with resource extraction, the development of tourism for future shipping, it is a relatively minor determinant of within the BBDS region will be dictated by the strength of change compared to industry and market constraints, as the global economy, and demand for the sort of tourism well as geopolitics, including the deepening of the Panama available in the region. Sea-ice retreat has already enabled Canal (in 2016) and of the Suez Canal (deepening in 2009, rapid growth in marine tourism, and a niche market in ‘last doubling in 2016). chance’ tourism is developing. Again, increased marine traffi c will increase risks to ships However, negative impacts include risks involved with the from ice and other marine hazards, although, on the industry expanding into largely uncharted regions, with Greenland side, pilotage is requested for ships with more associated dangers of accidents occurring. The absence of than 250 passages. The associated noise and pollution will a central authority for governing the cruise ship industry, also add to stresses faced by ecosystems in the region. a lack of guidelines for operations, other logistical and fi nancial barriers, and environmental challenges may also Infrastructure limit the sector’s growth. The impacts on housing, municipal and industrial building, On the other hand, new regulation, namely the IMO Polar and transport infrastructure in the region will mainly be Code entered into force in 2017. Access to the National from permafrost thaw, changing patterns of precipitation, Park in Northeast Greenland and access to the inland ice and increased incidence of extreme weather, for example is already regulated. Further to this, activities related to the eff ects of more frequent ice storms on electrical wires. tourism in Greenland are regulated in accordance with Coastal erosion and changes in sea level also are likely to new tourism concession legislation focusing on local impact infrastructure in the region, and falling relative sea involvement and socioeconomic aspects. Supporting levels caused by reduced icecap mass could potentially infrastructure is under development, with the construction leave ports stranded. of a new deep-water harbor in Nuuk and international airports planned at Nuuk and Ilulissat.

Photo: Knud Falk / Qassiarsuk, South Greenland 13 Laying the foundations for adaptation

The AACA reports contain a wealth HOW ADAPTATION CAN BE INTEGRATED of material that can help inform INTO DECISION MAKING IN THE BBDS decision makers in government, civil REGION, SHOULD BE ENHANCED society, business and academia as Despite increasing recognition of the need to adapt to they prepare to adapt to anticipated change in the region, knowledge about adaptation, and how adaptation can be integrated or mainstreamed into policy change in the Arctic. The following making and practical planning remains limited. There is also presents key foundational elements a need for more ‘usable’ knowledge on how to adapt, and that decision makers should consider limited research exploring and prioritizing response options. in their work on adaptation: the Adaptation options cross scales, from personal and household initial five elements are intended to decisions, to community/local, national and international be informational; the last five offer levels, with actions at one level often influenced, constrained, or enabled by developments on other scales. suggestions for action. Much of the recent thinking on adaptation has been climate‑focused, that is, designed to address direct, predictable and significant impacts of climate change, such as protecting buildings from permafrost thaw. However, it is increasingly recognized that, for adaptation to be effective, responses needed to target other drivers of

14 Policy development also needs PEOPLE IN THE BBDS to consider how a changing REGION ARE VULNERABLE climate might in turn undermine initiatives to build social and TO CLIMATE CHANGE economic resilience. For example, Climate change presents efforts to promote traditional food opportunities for people in the consumption must take into account BBDS region, such as new fisheries, levels of contaminants, changes to increasing abundance of some wildlife availability and accessibility,

Photo: Knud Falk / Nuuk, Greenland / Nuuk, Photo: Knud Falk sea mammals, improved access to while increased housing provision mineral resources, increased tourism, should consider the impacts of and improved regional connectivity permafrost thaw and changing through increased shipping. If climatic conditions. exploited, as Greenland’s fishing fleet is doing with new harvestable resources, these opportunities could EDUCATION IS A KEY increase the capacity of communities to adapt to climate change. FACTOR FOR ADAPTING TO CHANGE IN THE BBDS However, working against this are REGION underlying social, cultural and economic factors that make people Offering an education in sparsely vulnerable to climate-related risks. populated areas and small communities in the Arctic is Indicators of wellbeing in the BBDS challenging. Climate change will change, including social-economic- region are typically lower than those have a variety of indirect impacts on demographic conditions and in non-Arctic regions of Canada and education. For example, if traditional development trajectories. Such a Denmark: Nunavut, for example, has hunting and gathering activities ‘vulnerability-focused’ approach the highest documented rate of food become harder, traditional learning seeks to build capacity to adapt and insecurity in Canada. A 2014 study could be undermined. promote resilience. found that 11% of schoolchildren in Greenland often or always go to Stakeholder consultations in the However, few studies to date bed hungry. The region has high region showed strong interest explicitly incorporate projections of rates of premature death, disease in continued development and how socio-economic–demographic and accident, and health systems modernization, as well as the pursuit trends and projected climate impacts do not have sufficient capacity to of more traditional livelihoods, will combine to affect regional and respond to existing and emerging often in combination. Education is community vulnerability, resilience, health problems. important to help people in the BBDS and adaptation options. Instead, the prepare for both opportunities for majority of research focuses on current BBDS communities face high rates of waged employment and to pursue and experienced risks, underlining a poverty, and access to housing is well traditional subsistence activities need for futures-orientated work in the below non-Arctic populations. Small such as hunting. region, and across sectors. Arctic communities in the region also experience high levels of livelihood Improved education can help The assessment work has found, insecurity, where changes in global people adapt to change – it is a ‘no generally, that the combined markets, or policy developments regrets’ adaptation option that pays uncertainty in climate and socio- from outside the region can have dividends regardless of the nature of economic drivers tend to undermine major impacts on employment. change in the future. Strengthening the practical value of looking several the education system in the BBDS decades into the future in integrated Efforts to reduce vulnerability and region will also prepare people to studies. However, more focused enhance adaptive capacity therefore exploit economic opportunities that climate-related predictions of, for need to be built into policy initiatives might accompany change. Language example, permafrost thaw, have around human development, poverty programs would be particularly considerable practical value for alleviation, and livelihood security. useful in Greenland, where English is designing infrastructure.

15 Martin Fortier / ArcticNet / Fortier Martin

often a third language. Better language skills would allow Initiatives that help maintain and revitalize traditional people in the region to take advantage of distant learning and local knowledge, such as culture camps, cultural and working opportunities created by technological events that support a sense of place, and school advances, fi nd work in tourism or for international programing, are important to ensure traditional and local resources companies or, indeed, enable migration as an knowledge is passed on to younger generations, helping adaption option. to build resilience to the challenges facing northern communities, including climate change. Promotion of and support for traditional and local knowledge is also important. Climate change is undermining Maintaining and strengthening social networks is in some aspects of this knowledge, such as the ability to general important in adapting to change. Maintaining forecast weather conditions and predict animal migrations. traditional and local knowledge, as well as local However, it is making other traditional skills even more involvement in wildlife management, and community- important – such as the ability to identify hazard precursors, led initiatives to address social problems can all help to survival skills and knowledge of animal behavior. Anticipated strengthen these networks. changes in the BBDS region therefore supports arguments More broadly, it is widely recognized that communities for more culturally relevant schooling in Greenland and and decision-makers need to be engaged in adaptation Nunavut, and for alternative approaches to strengthening research, planning and implementation. Engaging the passing on of traditional and local knowledge. stakeholders, in a sustained way, is essential for adaptation in the BBDS region.

STAKEHOLDER AND COMMUNITY Approaches to adaptation need to take into account the scale and impacts of anticipated developments, which INVOLVEMENT, SOCIAL NETWORKS AND implies the involvement of aff ected communities and the TRADITIONAL AND LOCAL KNOWLEDGE relevant governance structures. The understanding of OFFER SOURCES OF RESILIENCE IN THE the problems to be tackled, and the cultural, political and FACE OF CHANGE socio-economic context in which they are addressed, will inevitably infl uence decisions about adaptation actions. Traditional knowledge underpins many aspects of It is therefore evident that approaches to adaptation in community life and culture. It can play a vital role in the BBDS region need to take into account community helping communities, households and individuals concerns and traditional and local knowledge and adapt to change. cultural values. The evolution and transmission of traditional knowledge is being threatened. While economic development is strongly desired by many people within the region, it provides alternative livelihoods that are less connected to the land, urbanization weakens links with the environment, and connections between young and old are becoming weaker.

16 The following are action-oriented statements based on the fi ndings in the BBDS regional science report

In addition to these economic and and their ecosystems. It should focus IMPROVED ECOSYSTEM cultural benefi ts, healthy ecosystems on protecting ‘biodiversity hotspots’ APPROACHES TO maintain other essential natural – that is, areas with many unique services, such as carbon storage and species, and should take into account MANAGEMENT ARE nutrient recycling. critical areas for various life stages NECESSARY TO PROTECT (breeding, feeding, roosting, molting). Limited long-term monitoring data, BIODIVERSITY IN THE Such areas include signifi cant polynyas, and the eff ects of other intervening BBDS REGION such as Pikialasorsuaq/North Water factors, make it diffi cult to assess , and important areas of the impact of climate change All major activities in the region – resilient multi-year sea ice. whether traditional hunting and on ecosystems, biodiversity and fi shing, commercial fi shing, tourism, population size for many species. Given the scale of forecasted changes shipping and even extractive Recovery from overexploitation, or that will often result in substantial industries – rely on healthy changing harvest or management habitat displacements in the Arctic, it ecosystem functioning. practices may have a greater impact is important that protected areas are on population size than climate large or fl exible enough to safeguard Commercial fi sheries are of particular change. An exception is the High critical habitats for target populations. economic importance to Greenland, Arctic zone, with its associated They should also be strategically and commercial fi sheries are also characteristic ecosystems. It is being selected (i.e. forming ecological expanding off the coast of Nunavut. pushed to the extreme north, with networks of sites) and actively Meanwhile, terrestrial and marine its habitats at risk of disappearing managed in coordination with other living resources are an important altogether, in a process that can only approaches that support the overall part of the local culture. Their be slowed down by decisive global resilience of regional ecosystems and harvest is an important supplement climate change mitigation eff orts. species. In addition, management to nutrition, clothing, and artistic plans will increasingly require Below the High Arctic, wise ecosystem expression in coastal communities. concerted action across borders, management can strengthen the BBDS communities also derive sectors and disciplines. revenues from the sale of harvested capacity of the region’s ecosystems to goods and from visiting tourists adapt to change. This management drawn by hunting and the unique should build on robust scientifi c Arctic fauna. and traditional and local knowledge about harvested or sensitive species

Photo: Knud Falk 17 There should also be a focus on are important for biodiversity and ADDRESSING CURRENT increasing and improving data to local people for cultural and food HEALTH VULNERABILITIES collection on the health of BBDS security reasons. residents, given that accurate WILL HELP BBDS Similarly, developing marine information is the foundation for activities in the BBDS, including RESIDENTS ADAPT TO THE the health planning process. CHALLENGES EXPECTED fisheries, cruise tourism, shipping TO BE EXACERABATED In general terms, addressing current and resource exploration, depends vulnerabilities in relation to health, upon coordinated investment BY CLIMATE CHANGE socio-economic risk factors, and in enhanced information, safety As noted above, climate change will other development gaps will help measures and regulations regarding have both direct and indirect impacts to build resilience. Solving current contingency planning, operational on health in the BBDS region. challenges will prevent them getting guidelines, improvements in ice However, few studies in the region worse in a changing environment. monitoring and warning capabilities. have examined how health outcomes More collaboration and planning will be affected by climate change, across sectors among and within although it is generally expected CROSS-CUTTING each country can open for a that existing risks will increase in more efficient development and magnitude and frequency, although APPROACHES ARE adaptation process. In this respect, there will be some benefits from NEEDED ACROSS cross-sector adaptation planning reduced exposure to extreme cold. SECTORS by national and local governments When assessing health vulnerabilities The interconnected nature of the could play a key role. Mainstreaming in the region, the underlying social, economic and environmental climate risk management is key determinants of health, such as changes expected in the BBDS to ensuring climate information is physical environments, health region, and the multiple stresses guiding long-term development and services, education and coping involved, means that adaptation that all major planning decisions are should be taken into consideration. planning will need to be strategic, also assessed in relation to its climate The discussion around the social ongoing, and carried out across change adaptation/mitigation and determinants of health underscores geographic scales and sectors resilience building potential. the need to understand health of society. Further knowledge transfer and beyond illness, and wellness beyond To date, adaptation research and co-operation across national borders absence of disease. In particular, the policy responses in the region have in the region would be rewarding, importance to people in the BBDS been focused at the community and here the circumpolar body, the region of nature to culture, and culture and regional level, which is the Arctic Council, including permanent and land to physical and mental appropriate scale to respond participants such as the Inuit health should not be overlooked. This to many climate-related risks. Circumpolar Council, could possibly will also be an important parameter However, national-level policies expand their facilitating role. when considering a community’s can either enable or limit the ability vulnerability, and hence its capacity of communities to adapt. For to adapt to change. example, building codes in Nunavut Climate change will have significant and Greenland largely reflect impacts on people’s connection to southern conditions. the land and marine environment. Meanwhile, a cross-sectoral approach For example, the health of Arctic is needed to limit the impacts of residents who rely on subsistence social and economic activities on foods is closely connected to ecosystems. For example, developing the health of the related wildlife codes of conduct for harvesting populations. This suggests that new living resources, and for tourists and and emerging stressors related to the operators would reduce impacts connection of human and wildlife on wildlife, helping to both protect health must be better understood the quality of wildlife tourism as and anticipated. well as protecting resources that

18 Shutterstock / Nuuk, Greenland 19

THERE IS A NEED FOR BETTER LINKS BETWEEN SCIENTISTS AND DECISION MAKERS

Understanding about practical aspects of adaptation across levels of government and the private sector is generally low in the BBDS region. For example, studies assessing perceptions of climate change impacts and adaptation with resource industries (primarily mining) has indicated that decision makers responsible for designing, building, maintaining and decommissioning industrial infrastructure have limited understanding of the likely impacts of future climate changes, as well as limited guidance on how to adjust to the likely changes. These data needs, among others, have been requested by the sector at AACA stakeholder meetings.

Hence there is a need for increased capacity within government throughout the region and, in particular, more effective dialogue between producers and users of scientific information; this include contributions from physical, biological and social sciences © Bryan & Cherry Alexander Photography / ArcticPhoto. , Nunavut, Canada Nunavut, Island, Baffin ArcticPhoto. / Photography Alexander © Bryan & Cherry to shape tools for supporting vulnerability-focused adaptation.

In addition, there is a need for further research, specifically which Integrated assessments such as AACA Some ongoing efforts for actively involves decision makers and and the ArcticNet Integrated Regional mainstreaming climate risk potential users of information within Impact Studies for the Canadian management into relevant sectoral communities and the private sector. Arctic, and Greenland’s sectorial legislation, policies, financing climate adaptation plans can play streams – and in local (municipal and However, it is not sufficient to an important role, by synthesizing community) planning – are on the simply provide decision makers with key information on climate impacts right track, and could be speeded information. To effectively inform and adaptation options. They involve up. To help the process it might adaptation policy and catalyze targeted knowledge mobilization – be considered whether additional action, decision makers need to be going beyond traditional research capacity building and education in actively involved throughout the outputs, such as journal articles, sector ministries and elsewhere may research process, which should be to produce targeted policy briefs, be required to build momentum. informed by the needs of users and presentations and ongoing The mainstreaming efforts should which should be accompanied with discussions of the results of research also apply to climate change targeted outreach and support on projects that are of direct relevance to mitigation efforts. how to use findings. adaptation in the Arctic.

20 Meanwhile, public support is POLITICAL LEADERSHIP IS NEEDED ON ADAPTATION, important in developing adaptation AND GOVERNANCE NEEDS TO BE IMPROVED programs, especially where adaptation actions involve taking Political leadership is important sector plans, namely fishing and unpopular decisions. There is in initiating adaptation processes. hunting, shipping, and agriculture, evidence that concerns about the There have been good examples and, in 2015, decided to mainstream issue in the region are growing, and of leadership from: lower levels climate change adaptation into there are examples of ‘adaptation of government within the BBDS sectoral planning. champions’ in communities region; from the government and governments. However, an Adaptation intervention and planning of Nunavut, which developed ‘adaptation consciousness’ has yet is particularly effective when a single a strategic adaptation plan in to emerge in all communities and government agency takes the lead 2011; from the Canadian federal across all levels of government. or an interagency group is created government, with targeted funding to oversee adaptation activities; Such support will also be required for vulnerability assessments and governments have an important to ensure that adaptation policies adaptation planning; and from role in coordinating action to ensure and programs are properly funded Inuit organizations lobbying on coherence, long-term planning, – and this resourcing needs to be climate change domestically and and the integration of adaptation incorporated into baseline funding internationally. The Greenland into climate-sensitive policies to be effective. government has focused integration across government. of climate change into relevant 21 Concluding remarks

The Arctic and the regions explored as part of the Nonetheless, the pilot study was able to examine AACA project are complex systems undergoing rapid adaptation options for the BBDS, and specifi cally for the environmental and societal change. It is evident that seven themes on which the BBDS report focused. For each climate change is an important driver of change, but it is of these seven themes, it suggested structural/physical, not the only one. Adaptation strategies should therefore social and institutional adaptations to help people within refl ect a broader context than climate change alone, the region respond to change. considering social, economic and ecosystem factors. To build readiness to adapt in the region, the report also By integrating knowledge from many diff erent fi elds of notes six essential factors, the relative importance of expertise, including traditional and local knowledge, and which will vary depending on scale and context. These across regions with large cultural diversity, multiple uses are political leadership, institutional organization for and users of local resources, and ambitious development adaptation, local and regional leadership, the need plans for the future, AACA has broken new ground. Using for usable science, and suffi cient funding and public a multidisciplinary approach, applying this across wide support for adaptation. geographical and societal scales, and looking decades ahead has been a challenge.

22 In terms of specifi c adaptation processes, the report This AACA pilot study has shown that building shared also identifi es a range of tools that are available to help knowledge and understanding of cumulative and guide decision makers. These include tools that focus on cascading impacts is key to developing eff ective policy developed countries and urban areas, as well as those responses. However, as this has been a pilot project not off ered through the UN Framework Convention on all aspects of science to knowledge to decision-makers Climate Change that are more generic. have been addressed. An even closer connection between scientists, residents and decision-makers is needed. In examining adaptation options for the BBDS, we should Adaptation to change, and building adaptive capacity and recognize that the worldviews of residents, offi cials, and resilience, is an evolving and dynamic process, constantly politicians will diff er, and that this will aff ect the priority responding to an increasing knowledge base as well as to and relevance that they assign to any adaptation option. the actual or expected eff ects of change. It is a learning process, in which the Arctic Council and its working groups can play a constructive role in future years.

23 Greenland Northwest Fjord, Wolstenholme / Photo: Knud Falk amap Fax +47 85 21 04 08 Tel. +47 80 21 04 08 Norway N-0349 Oslo Gaustadalléen 21 AMAP Secretariat For more information, theAMAP contact Secretariat. be found intheAACA 2017science reports. coordinated by AMAP. More detailedinformation ontheresults can (AACA)Arctic –Baffin Bay detailing theresults oftheAdaptation for Actions aChanging This ofthescientific overview document presentsreport asummary www.amap.no This documentwasprepared bythe Arctic Monitoringand Assessment Programme (AMAP)anddoesnotnecessarily represent the views of the Arcticthe viewsof Council, itsmembersorobservers. @ amap.no / Davis Strait (BBDS)regional pilotstudy

Cover image: iStock / Ilulissat, Greenland