ADAPTATION ACTIONS FOR A CHANGING ARCTIC BAFFIN BAY / DAVIS STRAIT REGION OVERVIEW REPORT The following is a short Describing the BBDS region description of what can be The BBDS region includes parts of Nunavut, which is a found in this overview report territory in Canada and the western part of Greenland, an and the underlying AACA science autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark. These two report for the Baffin Bay/Davis land areas are separated by the Baffin Bay to the north and Davis Strait to the south. The report describes the Strait (BBDS) region. entire region including the significant differences that are found within the region; in the natural environment and in political, social and socioeconomic aspects. Climate change in the BBDS This section describes future climate conditions in the BBDS region based on multi-model assessments for the region. It describes what can be expected of temperature rise, future precipitation, wind speed, snow cover, ice sheets and lake ice formations. Further it describes expected sea-surface temperatures, changing sea-levels and projections for permafrost thawing. 2 Martin Fortier / ArcticNet. Community of Iqaluit, Nunavut, Canada Nunavut, of Community Iqaluit, ArcticNet. / Fortier Martin Socio-economic conditions Laying the foundations This section gives an overview of socio-economic for adaptation conditions in the BBDS region including the economy, The report contain a wealth of material to assist decision- demographic trends, the urbanization and the makers to develop tools and strategies to adapt to future infrastructure in the region. The report shows that the changes. This section lists a number of overarching Greenland and the Canadian side of the region have informative and action-oriented elements for adaptation diff erent socio-economic starting points about how and the science report gives more detailed information. to adapt to future development. Concluding remarks The impacts of change This section sums up and describes point to the fact that Environmental changes and socio-economic factors adaptation is a complex issue and strategies to meet the will have profound impacts on people living in the future need to refl ect a broader context than climate BBDS region, which will interact with each other in change alone. The report point to essential factors for ways that will be complex and diffi cult to anticipate. adaptation and the relative importance of these will The report describes such impacts for seven themes; vary depending on scale and context. human health, education, non-living resources, living resources, tourism, shipping and infrastructure. 3 Introduction In 2011, the Arctic Council requested the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) to: “produce information to assist local decision makers and stakeholders in three pilot Bering - regions in developing adaptation Chukchi - tools and strategies to better deal with Beaufort climate change and other pertinent Barents environmental stressors”. Following significant interactions with both the Arctic science and decision-making communities, AMAP’s Baffin response to this request led to the Bay establishment of a new initiative called Adaptation Actions for a Changing Davis Arctic (AACA). This initiative provides Strait integrated stakeholder engagement and science-based information AACA terrestrial regions Bering, Chukchi, Beaufort (BCB) Baffin Bay, Davis Strait (BBDS) Barents Figure 1: The three AACA pilot regions. that can ultimately be synthesized AACA marine regions BCB BBDS Barents Large marine ecosystem (LMEs) boundaries and translated into knowledge that is useful and useable for making effective adaptation actions within a DEFINING ADAPTATION rapidly changing Arctic. Furthermore, the AACA is structured to promote The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change defines adaptation as: “The process of adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects. stakeholder engagement, including In human systems, adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit participation from many different beneficial opportunities. In some natural systems, human intervention may professional and public communities facilitate adjustment to expected climate and its effects”.1 For the purposes in the identification of the most of this study, we also consider non-climate drivers of change. relevant issues and challenges associated with a changing Arctic. Three regions, Baffin Bay/Davis Strait, This information, which combines 1 IPCC, 2014: Annex II: Glossary Barents and Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort, scientific and available traditional and [Mach, K.J., S. Planton and were chosen for an initial pilot phase. local knowledge, forms a knowledge C. von Stechow (eds.)]. In: Climate Change 2014: These three regions were chosen base that can be used to better Synthesis Report. Contribution to provide a diverse range of socio- inform adaptation actions being of Working Groups I, II and III economic and ecological conditions, taken by the decision-makers. Thus, to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental as well as to include as many Arctic the AACA is truly an iterative process Panel on Climate Change. Council nations as possible. between the stakeholder, scientific, IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, indigenous and local communities, pp. 117-130 Each of the three regional reports focused on providing a sustained level provides a scientific assessment of updated information for a diverse of the types and state of changes array of local, regional, national and within the specific regions, along international audiences. with a discussion of current levels of change, and the related impacts, This overview report is based upon effects and consequences of these the scientific assessment for the Baffin changes, past, present and future. Bay/Davis Strait (BBDS) region. 4 Difficulties in finding the most appropriate actions to respond to climate change are compounded by the fact that climate is not the only driver of change in the region. A common feature is the need to build flexibility and adjust to increasing variability and new extremes – considering the cumulative impacts of weather or/and other socio-economic drivers. Based on dialogue with stakeholders in the region, including representatives of the public and private sectors, and residents in both Greenland and Canada, seven themes were chosen for analysis: Living resources; Non- living resources (such as mineral extraction); Education; Human health and well-being; Tourism; Shipping and Infrastructure. For each of the themes, the authors considered the current knowledge regarding climate change and other stressors, and described potential options for future planning and actions. It is important to note, however, that adaptation has its limits, both in the rate and the amplitude of change that can be accommodated. Mitigation actions at national and international levels will improve the chances of successful adaptation to Arctic climate change by local/regional actors, by decreasing the rate of change to which ecosystems and human systems must adapt, and by eventually limiting the ultimate amplitude of that change. While acknowledging the importance of continued climate change mitigation efforts, the emphasis of AACA is on identifying adaption options. Shutterstock / Disko Bay, Greenland Bay, / Disko Shutterstock 5 Lawrence Hislop / www.grida.no/resources/1087. Uummannaq, Greenland Describing the Baffi n Bay/ Davis Strait Region The Baffi n Bay/Davis Strait (BBDS) region includes most of the Qikiqtaaluk administrative region in the eastern part of of Nunavut, which is a territory in Canada and the western part of Greenland, an autonomous part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Between these land areas are Baffi n Bay to the north and Davis Strait to the south. Although the entire BBDS region is inside the Arctic climate zone, signifi cant differences are found within the region; in the natural environment and in political, social and socioeconomic aspects. While Nunavut and Greenland share a range of qualitatively On the Greenland side, open water south of Disko Bay (usually similar challenges, they must also engage in adaptation with unconsolidated ice), a productive ecosystem, and deep- actions from two very diff erent points of departure. water ports, allow for an intensive fi shery, carried out both Most notably there are important diff erences in terms of with modern trawlers in the off shore waters and smaller boats demography, distribution of population, migration, degree of and dinghies in the inshore parts. This industry has been the industrialization and infrastructure that mean that Greenland main vehicle of a comprehensive industrialization that has and Nunavut may have diff erent adaptation priorities. transformed Greenlandic society dramatically since the 1960s. However, it does not sustain the entire Greenlandic economy The majority of the population of the BBDS is Inuit. The and a primary concern for the Greenlandic self-government Greenlandic population in the region is approximately is how to ensure current standards of modern welfare and 52,500, more than twice the population of the Nunavut side, further economic growth and independence – e.g. by means of around 19,500. With approximately 17,000 inhabitants of economic diversifi cation. Nuuk, the capital of Greenland, is double the size of Iqaluit, the largest town in Nunavut, with approximately 7,500 On the Nunavut side, marine resources are generally exploited inhabitants. The population on the Nunavut side