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Pakistan: Second, Third, Fourth, and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request F

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Pakistan: Second, Third, Fourth, and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request F IMF Country Report No. 21/73 PAKISTAN SECOND, THIRD, FOURTH, AND FIFTH REVIEWS April 2021 UNDER THE EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE EXTENDED FUND FACILITY AND REQUEST FOR REPHASING OF ACCESS—PRESS RELEASE; STAFF REPORT; STAFF SUPPLEMENT, AND STATEMENT BY THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR FOR PAKISTAN In the context of the Second, Third, Fourth, and Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Rephasing of Access, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: • A Press Release including a statement by the Chair of the Executive Board. • The Staff Report prepared by a staff team of the IMF for the Executive Board’s consideration on March 24, 2021, following discussions that ended on February 15, 2021, with the officials of Pakistan on economic developments and policies underpinning the IMF arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on March 9, 2021. • A Staff Supplement updating information on recent developments. • A Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan. The IMF’s transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information and premature disclosure of the authorities’ policy intentions in published staff reports and other documents. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services PO Box 92780 • Washington, D.C. 20090 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] Web: http://www.imf.org Price: $18.00 per printed copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. © 2021 International Monetary Fund PR21/83 IMF Executive Board Completes the Combined Second, Third, Fourth, and Fifth Reviews of the Extended Fund Facility for Pakistan FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE The IMF Executive Board completed today the combined second through fifth reviews of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan, allowing for an immediate purchase equivalent to about US$500 million for budget support. Program performance has remained satisfactory notwithstanding the unprecedented challenges of the Covid-19 shock, and the authorities’ policies have been critical in supporting the economy and saving lives and livelihoods. The Pakistani authorities remain committed to ambitious policy actions and structural reforms to strengthen economic resilience, advance sustainable growth, and achieve the economic reform program medium-term objectives. Washington, DC – March 24, 2021: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed today the second through fifth reviews of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for Pakistan. The Board’s decision allows for an immediate disbursement of SDR 350 million (about US$500 million), bringing total purchases for budget support under the arrangement to about US$2 billion. Pakistan’s 39-month EFF arrangement was approved by the Executive Board on July 3, 2019 (see Press Release No. 19/264) for SDR 4.268 billion (about $6 billion at the time of approval of the arrangement, or 210 percent of quota). The program aims to support Pakistan’s policies to help the economy and save lives and livelihoods amid the still unfolding Covid-19 pandemic, ensure macroeconomic and debt sustainability, and advance structural reforms to lay the foundations for strong, job-rich, and long-lasting growth that benefits all Pakistanis. Following the Executive Board discussion on Pakistan, Ms. Antoinette Sayeh, Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair, issued the following statement: “The Pakistani authorities have continued to make satisfactory progress under the Fund- supported program, which has been an important policy anchor during an unprecedented period. While the Covid-19 pandemic continues to pose challenges, the authorities’ policies have been critical in supporting the economy and saving lives and livelihoods. The authorities have also continued to advance their reform agenda in key areas, including on consolidating central bank autonomy, reforming corporate taxation, bolstering management of state-owned enterprises, and improving cost recovery and regulation in the power sector. 2 “Reflecting the challenges from the unfolding pandemic and the authorities’ commitment to the medium-term objectives under the EFF, the policy mix has been recalibrated to strike an appropriate balance between supporting the economy, ensuring debt sustainability, and advancing structural reforms while maintaining social cohesion. Strong ownership and steadfast reform implementation remain crucial in light of unusually high uncertainty and risks. “Fiscal performance in the first half of FY 2021 was prudent, providing targeted support and maintaining stability. Going forward, further sustained efforts, including broadening the revenue base carefully managing spending and securing provincial contributions, will help achieve a lasting improvement in public finances and place debt on a downward path. Reaching the FY 2022 fiscal targets rests on the reform of both general sales and personal income taxation. Protecting social spending and boosting social safety nets remain vital to mitigate social costs and garner broad support for reform. “The current monetary stance is appropriate and supports the nascent recovery. Entrenching stable and low inflation requires a data-driven approach for future policy rate actions, further supported by strengthening of the State Bank of Pakistan’s autonomy and governance. The market-determined exchange rate remains essential to absorb external shocks and rebuild reserve buffers. “Recent measures have helped contain the accumulation of new arrears in the energy sector. Vigorously following through with the updated IFI-supported circular debt management plan and enactment of the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority Act amendments would help restore financial viability through management improvements, cost reductions, regular tariff adjustments, and better targeting of subsidies. “Despite recent improvements, further efforts to remove structural impediments will strengthen economic productivity, confidence, and private sector investment. These include measures to (i) bolster the governance, transparency, and efficiency of the vast SOE sector; (ii) boost the business environment and job creation; and (iii) foster governance and strengthen the effectiveness of anti-corruption institutions. Also, completing the much-advanced action plan on AML/CFT is essential.” PAKISTAN SECOND, THIRD, FOURTH, AND FIFTH REVIEWS UNDER March 9, 2021 THE EXTENDED ARRANGEMENT UNDER THE EXTENDED FUND FACILITY AND REQUEST FOR REPHASING OF ACCESS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. While the Covid-19 shock temporarily disrupted Pakistan’s progress under the program supported by the IMF’s Extended Fund Facility (EFF), the authorities’ policies have been critical in supporting the economy and saving lives and livelihoods. Aside from health-related containment measures, their response included a temporary fiscal stimulus, large expansion of social safety nets, monetary policy support, and targeted financial initiatives. These measures, supported by sizable emergency financing from the international community, including under an RFI, helped contain the first Covid-19 wave of cases and the impact on the economy. Growth slowed to –0.4 percent in FY 2020 (July–June), but is expected to recover to 1.5 percent in FY 2021. The external position improved, and inflation continued to decelerate through early 2021 despite supply- driven spikes in food prices. However, a second Covid-19 wave is unfolding, triggering exceptionally high uncertainty and downside risks. Program performance. The EFF-supported program—last reviewed in December 2019—remained on track until March 2020. However, policy priorities inevitably shifted during the height of the Covid-19 crisis. Most quantitative targets were met through June 2020 and structural reforms have been implemented (albeit many with delays), including on consolidating central bank autonomy, reforming corporate taxation, bolstering SOE management, and improving cost recovery in the power sector and vesting its regulator with more powers. Program focus. Reflecting the challenges from the unfolding pandemic and the authorities’ commitment to the medium-term objectives under the EFF, the policy mix has been recalibrated to strike an appropriate balance between supporting the economy and ensuring debt sustainability. It builds on sustaining fiscal discipline while protecting critical social spending, safeguarding monetary and financial stability, and maintaining a market-determined exchange rate. New structural benchmarks support current efforts to strengthen revenue mobilization, public financial management, energy sector viability, governance, and the AML/CFT framework. Staff supports completion of the reviews and rephasing of access. It would make available SDR 350 million, bringing total access to SDR 1,394 million, and help anchor essential financing from other official partners and markets. PAKISTAN Approved By Discussions were held over recent months, and more recently during Thanos Arvanitis and Jan 6–February 15, 2021. The staff team comprised Ernesto Ramirez Kristina Kostial Rigo (head); Kerstin Gerling, Tannous Kass-Hanna, Christine Richmond, and Ricardo Llaudes (all MCD); Svetlana Cerovic (FAD); Hui Miao and Carlos de Barros Serrao (MCM); Faezeh Raei and Jongsoon Shin (SPR);
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