The Fund for Peace Conflict Bulletin: Abia State Patterns and Trends, 2012-2014 political intimidation, student protests and cult violence. In the first half of 2014, Aba LGA Level Summary North/South LGA worsened while Umuahia North/South LGA improved by a significant Ugwunagbo margin. Additionally, throughout 2014, shootings, killings, and abductions (Abia South Senatorial District) continued to be reported. Although there were very few reported This Conflict Bulletin provides a brief incidents of violence in Ugwunagbo from snapshot of the trends and patterns of 2012 through 2013, with robberies and conflict risk factors at the State and LGA domestic violence predominating, incident levels, drawing on the data available on the reporting increased some in 2014 including P4P Digital Platform for Multi-Stakeholder criminal and domestic violence. In a March Engagement (www.p4p-nigerdelta.org). It 2014 report, two youths were killed over a represents a compilation of the data from dispute over a commission from harvested bia State has an estimated sources listed below, not necessarily palm fruit. Because of the LGA’s very small population of 2.4 million, opinions of FFP or any other organization population, the per capita number of predominantly of Igbo origin. that collaborated on the production of this incidents was higher than in the other LGAs, Comparatively, it has not bulletin. The screenshot of the heat map on as reflected in the bar chart on the following experienced the levels of violence and this page shows the relative geographic insecurity that other states in the Niger distribution of incidents from January 2012 Delta have over the time period analyzed. to December 2014. The trendline below Reported Violence Abia produces about 27% of Nigeria’s crude shows the number of incidents and fatalities Incidents per million people, 2012 - 2014 oil and a significant amount of its natural over time. The bar chart shows the relative gas. It is also rich in yam, maize, rice, trend of incidents of insecurity by LGA per potatoes, and cashews. capita. The summaries draw on data Worse collected by ACLED, FFP’s UNLocK, the Theodore Orji (People’s Democratic Party) Council on Foreign Relations’ NST, WANEP was re-elected as governor of Abia state in Nigeria, CSS/ETH Zurich, NEEWS/TMG, and 2011. In the 2015 election re-run, held in Nigeria Watch integrated on the P4P April 2015, PDP’s Okezie Ikpeazu succeeded platform. They also draw on data and Orji as governor. Since the dissolution of information from “Violence in Nigeria: Better the local government administrations in Patterns and Trends,” by Patricia Taft and Edo January 2010, there have been no Local Imo Nate Haken (Springer Press, April 2015). Abia Delta Ondo Rivers Government Area (LGA) level elections; the Bayelsa Cross River Cross LGAs are administered by a council of Ibom Akwa Transitional Chairmen. From 2012 to 2013, issues reported included kidnapping, Nigeria Watch Tally of Incidents Resulting in Fatalities The graphic above is a Heat Map (screenshot) of Conflict Risk in Abia State 2012-2014 — www.p4p-nigerdelta.org. Conflict Bulletin: Abia State Conflict Risk Factors in Abia* Reported Insecurity Per Capita in Abia (by LGA)* 80 2014 H2 2014 H1 70 Incidents Worse 2013 H2 2013 H1 60 Fatalities 2012 H2 2012 H1 50 40 30 20 10 0 Better Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Jan-Jun Jul-Dec Ugwunagbo Aba N/S Umuahia N/S Osisioma_Ng wa Obi_Ngwa 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 * Using Nigeria Watch data (www.nigeriawatch.org) formatted to the P4P Web Map platform page, despite the low overall number of In the second half of 2014, robberies and former governor Orji Uzor Kalu. Also, in incidents. kidnapping remained the predominant February, it was reported that a student incidents reported. In August, three people died during a cult initiation ceremony at Aba North/South LGA were killed during a robbery attack on a Abia State University. In the first half of community. Also in August, a man was 2014, the overall level of violence appeared (Abia South Senatorial District) pushed from a moving vehicle and killed by to be decreasing from 2013. Incidents of oncoming vehicles as a result of two men abductions and killings, however, continued. Issues in Aba North/South LGAs mainly trying to rob him. In September, armed In February 2014, an aide to one of the sons related to criminal activity and allegations of robbers reportedly killed two members of a of the State Governor was killed by an corruption. In July 2012, there was a protest vigilante group and in a separate incident in unknown gunman. In June 2014, a 72-year- by women’s groups about layoffs in various September, two people were killed in the old businessman was abducted by gunmen sectors by the state government. In cross-fire from a kidnapping attempt. In who demanded a N1.7 million ransom. The September and October, there were October, kidnappers killed two people. In victim was reportedly found dead a day allegations in local newspapers about the November, it was reported that a journalist after the payment was made to the connections between criminal gangs and was abducted. He was released later in the kidnappers. political parties. Also during this time month, with no further details provided period, there were protests and complaints concerning the kidnapping or ransom. In Kidnapping and shooting incidents about excessive taxation yet none December a nurse was stabbed to death by continued to be prevalent in the second half reportedly turned violent. In the first half of another woman during a fight. of 2014. Most significant was the shooting 2014, shootings and abductions continued of Abia State Commissioner for Agriculture to be a concern. In January, a man who had Umuahia North/South LGA in July. The Commissioner died the following been abducted was freed after four days. In week, and it remained unclear whether the February, two women and a baby were (Abia Central Senatorial District) motive of the shooting was targeted reportedly kidnapped in separate incidents. assassination or attempted armed robbery. In May, a student from Abia State Political thuggery, kidnapping, and cases of In October, Umuahia North/South LGA Polytechnic was reportedly shot to death by cult violence were reported in Umuahia experienced a rise in incidents relating to unknown gunmen suspected of being North/South LGAs in the time period government legitimacy and the upcoming cultists. In June, a member of Abia State examined. In early 2012, the People’s elections. Members of the Abia Progressive Vigilante Services (AVS), popularly known as Progressive Alliance headquarters was Movement (APM) protested the second the Bakassi Boys, was allegedly shot and reportedly attacked and property destroyed term bid of the lawmaker representing Aba killed by armed robbers. Some papers by gangs believed to be connected to North and South on the premise that the conjectured that the victim was killed opposing political parties. In January 2013, a lawmaker was no longer representing the because he would have been able to lawmaker was reportedly kidnapped for needs of the constituents. Later in October, identity the perpetrators. ransom while in March of the same year thugs reportedly stormed an All gunmen reportedly attacked the home of www.fundforpeace.org 2 The Fund for Peace Conflict Bulletin: Abia State Progressives Congress (APC) venue and trafficking infants to so-called ‘baby other LGAs. In April 2012, it was reported assaulted observers and delegates, causing factories.’ There were also reports of that an anti-terrorism squad was found to many to flee. domestic violence during the year. In 2014, be harassing civilians although no further kidnappings and domestic violence again details were subsequently provided. In early Osisioma-Ngwa characterized most of the incidents January 2013, it was reported that up to 50 (Abia South Senatorial District) although it was also reported in March that women who had been victims of a human up to 33,000 liters of crude oil had been trafficking ring were found and freed. In stolen; no further details were provided. 2014, in both February and October, it was The violence in Osisioma-Ngwa was reported that clashes between police and characterized by domestic disputes, members of a kidnapping ring led to the robberies, and kidnappings from 2012-2013. death of at least 3 suspected kidnappers, Overall, 2012 was relatively quiet with a few Obi Ngwa one assumed to be the mastermind of the reported incidents of robbery and domestic (Abia South Senatorial District) operation. violence. Insecurity increased again in 2013, however, with several instances of kidnappings, at least two cases suspected to Overall, from 2012-2013, Obi Ngwa reported be related to a ring of criminals involved in fewer incidents per capita in comparison to Disclaimer The content of this report represents a summary of the incidents reported in the data, not the opinions of the organizations that collaborated on the compilation of this information. FFP is committed to promoting sustainable One of the data sources The data used in this analysis was pulled human security around the world, and is utilized in the summary was from the integrated digital platform for the International Coordinating Partner on P4P, an initiative derived from the UNLocK network in NIgeria, a partnership multistakeholder engagement developed for Partners for Peace supported by PIND. FFP has been working with local civil society between The Fund for Peace and the Institute of Human Rights (P4P) by PIND. For a deeper understanding of the conflict risk in Nigeria to develop the UNLocK network since 2010. and Humanitatian Law (IHRHL). factors, visit www.p4p-nigerdelta.org.