Topic B: Follow up to the COP21: Implementing the International Agreement to Limit Global Warming

INTRODUCTION Four years after the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and the United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) in 1988, in May 1992, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is adopted during the Rio Earth Summit as part of the “Rio Convention”. The “convention set out a framework for action aimed at stabilising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (COP21, 2015).” Concentrated efforts until now have led to 195 parties having signed the UNFCCC and meeting regularly to assess the state of the implementation of the Convention and to consider further actions to tackle climate change at the Conference of Parties (COP). The most important document of the UNFCCC so far is the Kyoto protocol, which was agreed upon in 1997 and obliges industrialized countries (“Annex I Parties”) to cut greenhouse gas emissions by an average of 5% for 2008-2012 compared to 1990. In Durban and Qatar, an extension of the protocol until 2020 was decided upon, as it was impossible to agree on a new convention. The protocol is subject to “ratification, acceptance, approval or accession by Parties to the UNFCCC. Parties to the UNFCCC that have not signed the Protocol may accede to it at any time (UNFCCC 2014).” The Kyoto protocol builds on three key mechanisms to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Parties that have accepted targets for limiting or reducing emissions are allowed under the International Emission Trading scheme to trade spare emission units with countries which exceed their targets. Emissions reductions hence are a commodity on the “carbon market”. (UNFCCC 2014) The Clean Development Mechanism allows parties to fulfil their emission reduction targets within the country by emission-reduction projects in developing countries. Such projects can earn saleable certified emission reduction (CER) credits counting towards meeting Kyoto targets. (UNFCCC 2014) Similar emission reduction project can not only be implemented in developing but also other Annex Parties under the Joint Implementation scheme, allowing for more efficient emission reduction projects under international collaboration. (UNFCCC 2014) Figure 1 - The State of the Climate (IPCC, 2013) The Kyoto protocol also includes monitoring, reporting and a compliance system to ensure that Parties are meeting their commitments. Another goal both of the protocol and the convention as a whole is to assist nations to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. (UNFCCC, 2014) The Kyoto protocol has been the first step towards a “truly global emission reduction regime” that will enable mankind to reach the necessary targets for successfully tackling climate change (UNFCCC, 2014). However, as seen in the overview of the 5th report of the IPCC in Fig. 1, threats imposed by climate change are still pressing and measures taken have not been enough. After the first commitment period of the Kyoto protocol from 2008 to 2012, negotiations for a legally binding document following up the Kyoto protocol remained unsuccessful. A second commitment period, Kyoto II, was established reaching from 2013 to 2020, while committing to establishing a new protocol by 2015. COP21, the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, for the first time aims to achieve a legally binding and universal agreement on climate, with the aim of keeping global warming below 2°C (COP21). The conference itself has been celebrated as a success by many. However even a legally binding agreement will only be as successful in limiting global warming as the targets and goals will be implemented in the different nations. The commitment of the Parties to the overall goal of maximum 2°C global warming as well as their specific emission reduction goals has to be translated into action – which must lead to results. This process will be a challenging one, but also a crucial one turn the UNFCCC’s more than 20 yearlong efforts into true success.

Milestones of Development (UNFCCC 2014) 1994: UNFCCC enters into force, including 196 parties. 1998: The Kyoto protocol, the world’s first greenhouse gas emissions reduction treaty, is adopted. It “commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets.“ (UNFCCC 2014c) 2005: The Kyoto protocol enters into force and the EU Emission Trading Scheme launches. 2006: The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), a key mechanism of the Kyoto protocol, opens. 2008: The Joint Implementation Mechanism (JI), a key mechanism of the Kyoto protocol, starts and allows countries to fulfil their emission reduction commitment by emission- reduction or emission removal projects in another country. 2010: The Cancun Agreements resulting from COP16 in Cancun focus on assisting developing nations in dealing with climate change. The Green Climate Fund, the Technology Mechanism and the Cancun Adaptation Framework are established. 2011: At COP17 in Doha, governments commit to a new universal climate change agreement by 2015. 2015: COP21 in Paris is the last chance to agree to a follow up of the Kyoto protocol commitment period II reaching until 2020.

DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS

According to the UNFCCC (2014), important key terms regarding the Conference of Parties and its duties are defined as follows. Conference of the Parties (COP) The supreme body of the Convention. It currently meets once a year to review the Convention's progress. The word "conference" is not used here in the sense of "meeting" but rather of "association". The "Conference" meets in sessional periods, for example, the "fourth session of the Conference of the Parties." Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Established in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the UN Environment Programme, the IPCC surveys world-wide scientific and technical literature and publishes assessment reports that are widely recognized as the most credible existing sources of information on climate change. The IPCC also works on methodologies and responds to specific requests from the Convention's subsidiary bodies. The IPCC is independent of the Convention. Policies and measures (PAMs) A frequently used phrase -- sometimes abbreviated as PAMs -- referring to the steps taken or to be taken by countries to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol. Some possible policies and measures are listed in the Protocol and could offer opportunities for intergovernmental cooperation. Kyoto Protocol An international agreement standing on its own, and requiring separate ratification by governments, but linked to the UNFCCC. The Kyoto Protocol, among other things, sets binding targets for the reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by industrialized countries. Kyoto mechanisms Three procedures established under the Kyoto Protocol to increase the flexibility and reduce the costs of making greenhouse-gas emissions cuts. They are the Clean Development Mechanism, Emissions Trading and Joint Implementation. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) A mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol through which developed countries may finance greenhouse-gas emission reduction or removal projects in developing countries, and receive credits for doing so which they may apply towards meeting mandatory limits on their own emissions. Emissions trading One of the three Kyoto mechanisms, by which an Annex I Party may transfer Kyoto Protocol units to, or acquire units from, another Annex I Party. An Annex I Party must meet specific eligibility requirements to participate in emissions trading.

Joint implementation (JI) A mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol through which a developed country can receive "emissions reduction units" when it helps to finance projects that reduce net greenhouse-gas emissions in another developed country (in practice, the recipient state is likely to be a country with an "economy in transition"). An Annex I Party must meet specific eligibility requirements to participate in joint implementation. Adaptation Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities. Mitigation In the context of climate change, a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. Examples include using fossil fuels more efficiently for industrial processes or electricity generation, switching to solar energy or wind power, improving the insulation of buildings, and expanding forests and other "sinks" to remove greater amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. (UNFCCC, 2014) DISCUSSION The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was officially adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992, setting out a legal framework and inter-governmental platform to address rising atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs). In the words of Margaret Thatcher in 1998 in her speech to the United Nations, she said, “We need a realistic programme of action and an equally realistic timetable. Each country has to contribute, and those countries who are industrialised must contribute more to help those who are not. The work ahead will be long and exacting. We should embark on it hopeful of success, not fearful of failure.” (Thatcher, 1989) No truer words spoken on what the premise of the UNFCCC should be about, that each member-state must contribute, that understandably there must be common but differentiated responsibilities to tackle climate change. Additionally, we must set ourselves an ambitious agenda with a realistic timetable to meet our aims in creating a sustainable world. After the setbacks of the sub-agreement laid out within the Kyoto Protocol, the convention was tasked with a new aim of creating a new deal following the end of the Kyoto Protocol. This was to be agreed upon at the annual Conference of Parties (COP) event in Paris otherwise known as the 2015 Paris Climate Conference.

Figure 2- UNFCCC, COP21, Paris: Article II)

During the duration of the conference, the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) is responsible for creating this new legal instrument or protocol that will take effect in 2020. This legal protocol was to be created with the aim to keep global warming well below 2°C. (Paris Agreement, 2015) The aim was achieved on 12 December 2015, a day later than the scheduled period for the COP21. The agreement however is not a completely legally binding protocol, it is only partially binding as well as voluntary for member- states. This stems from the main issue that recurred during the conference where member- states did not want a fully binding protocol. This was due to the reason that it will either hinder their economic development or put them in a position where they cannot ratify it. The foundation for this conference was made of a few things. The first was the Intended Nationally Defined Contributions otherwise known as the INDCs which acted as a way to empower national governments to provide their own realistic but ambitious goals for reducing emissions. The second was the ADP which helped lead the working groups and negotiations for what the new legal protocol should include – they have been working to find common ground for the agreement since its inception in COP17. The third was a renewed effort to make the Paris Conference a public-private partnership effort, hence why it has broken the record as the biggest turnout in numbers for any convention conference (World Climate Ltd, 2014). More than 150,000 participants with over 25,000 delegates in that group came to Paris to create a new agreement. The conference encouraged the public private partnerships and collaborations to encourage innovation and ambition in the new Paris Climate Deal. It is important to highlight that the Paris Conference facilitated the non-delegate participants in a special Lima-Paris Action Agenda (LPAA) with a launch of a website that showcases 11 action group initiatives that non-government actors and organisations can make commitments within (Jakubowics, et al., 2015). 1. Agriculture 2. Forest 3. Transport 4. Renewable energy 5. Energy access and efficiency 6. Resilience 7. Cities and sub-nationals 8. Private finance 9. Business 10. Innovation 11. Building and short-term pollutants This action agenda was created in partnership between the Peruvian and French government to complement the Non-State Action Zone for Climate Action (NAZCA). NAZCA was launched at COP20 in Lima to allow for individuals and organisations to register their commitments and actions to tackling climate change. This was their method to promote the bottom up approach for addressing the challenges of climate change through empowering members and groups in society. The UN recognised the importance of facilitating and recognising global action that came from society. It also recognises the importance of the private sector due to the primary aim of the UNFCCC to reduce the atmospheric concentration of GHG emissions and those emissions primarily come from industrial point sources. This is why in the lead up to COP21, there was a Road to Paris 2015 initiative. This was a two-year strategic and consultative approach to encourage a bottom-up multi-stakeholder platform for climate change solutions to contribute to the Paris deal at COP21 (Mathres, et al., 2014). The World Climate Limited managed this stakeholder platform to promote the green economy in partnership with a large network of governments, financial institutions, corporations, and global institutions. They held multiple summits starting from the World Climate Summit 2013 during COP19 all the way to the World Climate Summit 2014 during COP20. These summits led to the Paris Declaration which stated intent and support from over 200 government and business leaders across the world for a climate deal in COP21 (Jens Nielsen, 2015). The governments themselves were committed to showcasing their support for a deal at COP21 even further with the mandate to Figure 3 - Key Aspects of the Treaty submit Intended Nationally Defined Contributions otherwise known as INDC. These were published by the United Nations in the lead up to the Paris Conference this past October. However, there were many reports that the member-state contributions were not ambitious enough especially from those who seem to contribute the most towards GHG emissions. The intended pledges to reduce their emissions is not enough to keep the planet from reaching an average global temperature of 2.7 degrees Celsius by 2100 (Sutter, 2015). Although it is a historic moment, nothing similar seen since the Kyoto Protocol, as it is a partial legally binding framework agreed by consensus from nearly 200 member-states. The main fact is that it is not fully binding on member-states which has been the main criticism since the end of the COP21. There are no mechanisms in place to hold member-states accountable to their emission reduction pledges. The only incentive is ensuring the narrative holds strong for an international coalition to cooperate in preventing irreversible global warming which will lead to unintended escalation of climate change related events. With this in mind, it is important to understand the context of the COP21 Paris Climate Change agreement in the policy cycle. This section has so far shown how various global stakeholders set the agenda, formulated policies, and made decisions towards combatting climate change. That decision is now a partially binding legal framework to reduce GHG emissions in effect from 2020. The decision also includes the global aim to keep the global temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible with 2 degrees Celsius being the limit by 2100. There is a finance aspect for developed rich nations to contribute up to $100 billion from 2020 as a foundation of support for the poor member-states who need the financial support to adopt to a sustainable economy. And the other key points from the adopted Paris agreement are shown in the illustration in figure 2 above (AFP, 2015). It is not 2020 yet however and that means there is still two stages left in the policy cycle to measure how successful and impactful this agreement will be for our future. This is the implementation stage and the monitoring and evaluation stage. Without a proper implementation and review plan to fix the issues a partially binding protocol brings, the Paris Agreement will have little to no effect in effectively tackling climate change. A proper plan with targets and deadlines must be created in line with the Agreement’s already proposed recurring five year review to ensure national pledges are met and continue to become more ambitious. There are also many questions to be asked on whether the global community will continue to focus on primarily reducing GHG emissions or will other initiatives be taken as well. Initiatives related to gender empowerment and equality, education, poverty, and other similar societal development related issues. It is important to note and argued by many academics that the current narrative in the UNFCCC is very much dominated by a technical narrow approach to tackling climate change. When it needs to be a dynamic and holistic approach to address society’s challenges and ensure there is representation and accountability when carrying out the Paris Agreement (McQuistan, et al., 2015). Considering more than half the world is made up of women and that climate change negatively impacts women and children more than men, it is essential in the implementation stage to understand how these groups will be affected and how we can better support them. The continuation of the Lima-Paris Action Agenda and NAZCA is one way forward to ensuring global action from individuals and organisations are recognised and encouraged to fight climate change (Jakubowicz, et al., 2015). Another is the continuation of COP18’s decision to ensure a certain percentage of any bodies or working groups created by the UNFCCC are made up of women to give them a fair voice at the table when implementing the Paris Agreement. Another key point to consider in understanding the implementation phrase of the Paris Agreement is how the Ad Hoc Working Group shall go forward in monitoring and surveying nationally determined contributions. At the moment, the agreement outlines the working group to provide guidance on how to hold member-states accountable in a similar manner to ensure national pledges are met and continue to be ambitious but fair to their economic situation. This is detailed in Paragraph 31 followed up by Paragraph 32-35 within the agreement (Paris Agreement, 2015). It focuses on creating a ‘spill over’ effect amongst member-states to encourage ambitious national emission reduction pledges with a review to increase the pledges every five years. The spill over effect is that if certain member-states or regions are more ambitious than others and do very well with a transformation towards a more sustainable economy then others will follow suit. Further on the line of implementation, the agreement details for specific subsidiary bodies how they will help with the implementation in the agreement. They are detailed in the following categories within Section III: mitigation, adaptation, loss and damage, finance, technology development and transfer, capacity building, transparency of action and support, and global stockage. A further section focuses on facilitating implementation and compliance through the creation of a new 12 member committee made of elected representatives of high scientific and technological competence.

Figure 4- Key elements of implementation in the Paris Agreement

This committee’s role is to ensure compliance with the clauses set out by the agreement. They are also responsible for the transparency of information to ensure national capabilities and circumstances are communicated clearly when measuring compliance. This is an important body to consider in the debate, because as the protocol is not fully binding. How would they ensure compliance, how can you convince a member state to submit renewed national pledges for emission reductions or transform itself further into a green economy. Further details on the creation of this committee is found in Article 15 of the Paris Agreement. Additionally, it is important to discuss Section IV of the agreement, “Enhanced Action Prior to 2020.” It highlights many of the issues a protocol can face if nots fully enforced with all member-states contributing and accountable in some way or form (Paris Agreement, 2015). For the Paris Agreement, it is a landmark agreement but how can we ensure all member- states party to the agreement will follow through on their national pledges and what can we do further? Especially the call for all member-states like China and the United States to peak their emissions as soon as possible or submit climate action plans to meet their emission reduction pledges. It is not a dire situation overall though, in the build up to COP21, 188 of the nearly 200 member- states submitted these Climate Action Plans detailing their objectives for how they will meet their individually decided national pledges (UNFCCC Secretariat, 2015). As the agreement has established the principle that these action plans cannot become weakened in the future but only more ambitious, it sets a precedent that we can only strive towards creating a sustainable world. This on top of the requirement that member-states must submit an updated nationally determined contributions every five years. However, this committee must look at one area that has not been fully thought out which is the action point to raise $100 billion by 2020 as a basic funding pot from developed nations to support developing member-states (AFP, 2015). A road map has to be created defining how the base line of funding will be achieved and then how to continue maintaining that funding pot to support increasingly ambitious national pledges and plans every five years. Without a clear roadmap, climate finance will continue to be a contested issue in the implementation of this agreement. It was one of the major barriers that prevented an agreement of this scale from being reached in the last decade. Finance can be resolved though through utilizing the NAZCA and LPAA portal which captures individual and organisational initiatives for tackling climate change. These are recognised by the UN as vital sources for rapidly implementing the Paris Agreement because it is an unprecedented collaboration of stakeholders who have the funding and resources to support climate change initiatives. Just to highlight how important it is to consider the value of member- states cooperating with NAZCA and LPAA involved individuals and groups, here are some numbers for consideration. Across 7,000 cities with a population of over 125 billion people involved in NAZCA, they hold 32% of the world’s GDP. This stat includes over 5,000 companies who carry over $38 trillion in profit which contribute to climate change initiatives. Finally, there are nearly 500 investors involved in NAZCA and LPAA who have assets totalling over $25 trillion (Nuttall, 2015). In summary, this agreement will not come into effect until 55 member-states who make 55% of the global emissions ratify it within their respective governments. This has to be completed within the one year the agreement will be open to signature from 22 April 2016. Our topic will focus on creating a framework to map out how member-states will prepare to put this agreement into effect in 2020. In addition to that, the mechanisms and instruments that should be in place to encourage member-states to work towards meeting their national emission reduction pledges. Further, considering a roadmap to ensure climate finance is appropriately and fairly collected and divided to support specific projects in developing countries. There has to be a mechanism to ensure that economic, social, and environmental factors are all considered when allocating funding to developing nations to ensure the money is dispersed correctly and made use of properly. BLOC POSITIONS The agreement reached in Paris on December 12 is the outcome of the unprecedented joint effort of the 196 countries that unanimously approved it, in a display of unity around the cause of capping global warming never seen before. For the first time in history both developed and developing countries commit in a single document to tackling climate change. The majority of countries felt that the final agreement constitutes a generally fair-and-balanced representation of what all countries wanted, though many underscored the significant compromises on issues like how to handle losses and damages related to climate change (BBC). However, divisions persist. The deal had been in the making for several years, and is the consequence of many other rounds of negotiations, this time greatly facilitated by the fact that each country sent in its proposal, serving as the base for the agreement. As such, country coalitions around this issue have long been formed. On the one hand, developed countries point to the growing share of carbon emissions for which developing countries are responsible, in their attempt to develop and grow. On the other hand, developed countries argue that in the 250 years since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution countries whose economies are now developed contributed the largest share of emission, without which they could not have transitioned. They thus require developed countries to supply them with fund that will help them to reduce their emissions and shift to less carbon-intensive economies. Regional groups National governments are represented at the sessions of the Convention by a delegation that negotiates on its behalf, and belong to one of the five Regional Groups (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, Western Europe and Others) and possibly other coalitions such as the European Union (EU), itself a party to the Convention and the Kyoto Protocol and that speaks for its 28 Member States, and the African Group which joins 54 countries from the continent of Africa to protect common interests such as adaptation, capacity transfer and financing. Interest based regional groups Other groups have been formed with the aim of creating a stronger stance in the protection of a common interest. The Group of 77 and China (G77+China) is composed of 133 developing countries and China, an associate member, and presided by South Africa in the person of its Ambassador Nozipho Mxakato-Diseko. Conflicting positions within the G77+China led to the formation of other groups, for instance BASIC (Brazil, South African, India and China), born out of the wish to create a common position prior to the 2009 Copenhagen Conference, and the Arab Group, informally led by Saudi Arabia and made up of 21 oil- dependent economies which alert to the economic downside of fighting climate change. The Like-Minded Developing Countries on Climate Change (LMDC), a 24-country coalition within G77+China, emerged at the 2012 Bonn Climate Change Conference in May 2012, bringing together over half of the world’s population.Others include the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA) and the Independent Alliance of Latin America and the Caribbean (AILAC). The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) is a coalition of 43 low-lying coastal and small island states, such as Maldives and Haiti, at risk from rising sea levels. The group of Least Developed Countries (LDCs) is made up of countries at the lowest end of development, which in spite of their low emissions stand to suffer the most from the consequences of climate change. Countries located in forest basins aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions caused by deforestation have come together in the Coalition for Rainforest Nations (CfRN). Acting as an information-sharing and discussion forum and having positioned itself against extending the Kyoto Protocol, the Umbrella Group joins non-EU developed countries like Australia, Canada, the United States, the Russian Federation, Iceland, Japan, New Zealand, Norway and Ukraine, although there is no official list. Formed by OECD countries looking to distance themselves from the positions of the Umbrella Groups, the Environmental Integrity Group (EIG) is composed of Switzerland, Mexico, South Korea, Monaco and Liechtenstein. Stance in the negotiations COP21 was hosted by France, whose handling of the conference (drafting the actual agreement, taking note of each country’s position, serving as intermediator) has been largely praised. The leading role of the U.S., together with the willing cooperation of China and India, countries that in the past have prevented other deals from being reached, was crucial to the success of the negotiations. In particular, the deal will not require approval by the US Congress. Representatives from vulnerable small island countries also played a critical role in shaping negotiations, having succeeded in including long-term targets and the 2 degree limit in deal.

POINTS A RESOLUTION SHOULD ADDRESS The framework agreement sealed at the COP21 has been described as the beginning of the end of the era of fossil fuels and a turning point for the world. A great achievement though it may be, it still leaves a lot of points to be defined. Greenpeace International executive director Kumi Naidoo says it marks «only one step on a long road». 1. Ratifying the Paris agreement At least 55 of the 195 signatory countries, responsible for at least 55% of all global-warming emissions, must ratify the deal in order to make it legally enforceable. 2. Ensuring compliance Under the current agreement, although parties are required to report on their efforts every 5 years, they are free to set their own target and there are no sanctions if they fail to reach them. It is crucial to ensure that the necessary efforts to reach the goal of «holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels» are undertaken. The text of the agreement itself emphasizes «the urgent need to address the significant gap between the aggregate effects of Parties’ mitigation pledges in terms of global annual emissions of greenhouse gases» and what actually needs to be done if the 2 °C limit is to be respected. In fact, the former would only cap global warming at 2.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

3. Implementing effective measures to achieve country targets Ending fossil fuel subsidies, in addition to contributing directly to emissions reductions (a recent report from the International Institute for Sustainable Development and the Nordic Council of Ministers points to an 11% decline by 2020), would free up much-needed funds to support the transition to a green economy. The implementation of a global tax on carbon pollution, already done in about 40 countries, would work towards making polluters more accountable and funding investments in clean energy and technology. 4. Building national consensus Achieving a broad-based agreement around this issue within each country is essential for the durability of the deal. Political differences should not stand in the way of action to fight a problem that concerns humanity as a whole, and climate scepticism should not be used as a political tool. FURTHER READING INDC PORTAL OF ALL NATIONAL PLEDGES SUBMITTED POLICY AND PRACTICE FOR COP21 – USEFUL ACADEMIC SOURCES KEY POINTS AT A GLANCE OF THE AGREEMENT ENGLISH VERSION OF THE PARIS AGREEMENT BIBLIOGRAPHY

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