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Turnout at Elections

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Turnout at Elections BRIEFING PAPER Number CBP 8060, 5 July 2019 By Noel Dempsey, Philip Turnout at elections Loft Contents: 1. National Parliament Elections 2. European Parliament Elections 3. Devolved Administrations 4. Local Elections 5. Appendix www.parliament.uk/commons-library | intranet.parliament.uk/commons-library | [email protected] | @commonslibrary 2 Turnout at elections Contents 1. National Parliament Elections 3 1.1 UK General Elections 3 1.2 UK General Elections: nations and regions 4 1.3 UK General Elections: constituencies 4 1.4 UK General Elections: turnout by age 6 1.5 EU member comparisons 7 2. European Parliament Elections 9 2.1 Turnout across the EU 9 2.2 Turnout in the United Kingdom 9 3. Devolved Administrations 12 3.1 Wales 12 3.2 Scotland 12 3.3 Northern Ireland Assembly 12 4. Local Elections 13 4.1 Turnout in recent local elections, by authority 14 4.2 Turnout in recent local elections, by ward in Wales 17 4.3 Turnout in recent local elections, by ward in England 18 4.4 Turnout in recent local elections, by ward in Scotland 21 5. Appendix 22 5.1 Estimated turnout by age at UK General Elections 22 Flag pictures in Table 2 are from Go Squared Ltd (https://www.gosquared.com/) Cover page image copyright To the polling station by Matt. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 / image cropped. 3 Commons Library Briefing, 5 July 2019 1. National Parliament Elections 1.1 UK General Elections Turnout at the 2017 General Election1 was 68.8% and was the fourth successive election where turnout increased. The highest turnout recorded at a UK general election over the last 100 years was in 1950, 83.9%. TURNOUT AT UK GENERAL ELECTIONS, 1918-2017 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1918 1922 1923 1924 1929 1931 1935 1945 1950 1951 1955 1959 1964 1966 1970 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2015 2017 F1974 O1974 Source: House of Commons Library, UK Election Statistics Note: Turnout calculated as valid votes as a percentage of total electors. Between 1922 and 1997, turnout at UK general elections remained above 71%, rising to over 80% in the general elections of 1950 and 1951. Turnout was only 57.2% in the 1918 General Election, although this was partly due to a low service vote and a large number of uncontested seats (107 out of a total of 707 seats). In 2001, turnout fell to 59.4%, its lowest level since 1918 and down 12% points compared with 1997. Although turnout rose again in 2005- 2010, it was still below its 1997 level. In 2017 UK turnout was 66.8%. 1 House of Commons Library, General Election 2017 (updated ed, 2019) 4 Turnout at elections 1.2 UK General Elections: nations and regions TURNOUT IN UK GENERAL ELECTIONS, BY NATION Northern United England Wales Scotland Ireland Kingdom 1918 55.7% 65.9% 55.1% 69.5% 57.2% 1922 72.8% 79.4% 70.4% 77.2% 73.0% % TURNOUT BY REGION, UK 1923 71.1% 77.3% 67.9% 76.5% 71.1% GENERAL ELECTION 2017 1924 77.4% 80.0% 75.1% 66.7% 77.0% SW England 71.8% 1929 76.6% 82.4% 73.5% 63.8% 76.3% 1931 76.1% 79.3% 77.4% 74.5% 76.4% SE England 71.2% 1935 70.7% 76.4% 72.6% 72.0% 71.1% London 70.1% 1945 73.4% 75.7% 69.0% 67.4% 72.8% E England 69.8% 1950 84.4% 84.8% 80.9% 77.4% 83.9% 1951 82.7% 84.4% 81.2% 79.9% 82.6% E Midlands 69.0% 1955 76.9% 79.6% 75.1% 74.1% 76.8% Wales 68.6% 1959 78.9% 82.6% 78.1% 65.9% 78.7% NW England 67.8% 1964 77.0% 80.1% 77.6% 71.7% 77.1% 1966 75.9% 79.0% 76.0% 66.1% 75.8% W Midlands 66.9% 1970 71.4% 77.4% 74.1% 76.6% 72.0% Yorkshire & Humber 66.4% F1974 79.0% 80.0% 79.0% 69.9% 78.8% Scotland 66.4% O1974 72.6% 76.6% 74.8% 67.7% 72.8% 1979 75.9% 79.4% 76.8% 67.7% 76.0% NE England 66.0% 1983 72.5% 76.1% 72.7% 72.9% 72.7% Northern Ireland 65.4% 1987 75.4% 78.9% 75.1% 67.0% 75.3% 1992 78.0% 79.7% 75.5% 69.8% 77.7% 1997 71.4% 73.5% 71.3% 67.1% 71.4% 2001 59.2% 61.6% 58.2% 68.0% 59.4% 2005 61.3% 62.6% 60.8% 62.9% 61.4% 2010 65.5% 64.8% 63.8% 57.6% 65.1% 2015 66.0% 65.7% 71.0% 58.1% 66.2% 2017 69.1% 68.6% 66.4% 65.4% 68.8% Source: House of Commons Library, General Election 2017 (updated ed, 2019), House of Commons Library, UK Election Statistics and Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher, British Electoral Facts 1832-2012 (2012). In the General Election of 2017, turnout by region varied from 65.4% in Northern Ireland to 71.8% in South West England. Turnout in Wales was slightly below the UK average of 68.8%, at 68.6%, whilst Scotland saw a turnout of 66.4%. The turnout in each of the countries and regions of the UK in 2017 was below the 1918-2017 average for the UK, which was 72.9%. 1.3 UK General Elections: constituencies Turnout at general elections can vary considerably between constituencies. The highest and lowest turnouts in the 2017 General Election are shown below in the table, whilst the variation across the UK is shown in the below map.2 2 House of Commons Library, General Election 2017 (updated ed, 2019) 5 Commons Library Briefing, 5 July 2019 Source: House of Commons Library, General Election 2017 (updated ed, 2019) 6 Turnout at elections GE 2017 TURNOUT BY CONSTITUENCY Top Ten Bottom Ten Twickenham 79.5% Walsall North 56.6% Oxford West and Abingdon 79.4% Glasgow South West 56.2% Richmond Park 79.1% Blackley and Broughton 56.0% Winchester 78.8% Glasgow Central 55.9% Wirral West 78.5% Kingston upon Hull East 55.5% Wirral South 78.4% Manchester Central 55.1% St Albans 78.3% West Bromwich West 54.7% East Dunbartonshire 78.1% Glasgow East 54.6% Rushcliffe 78.0% Leeds Central 53.2% Hornsey and Wood Green 77.9% Glasgow North East 53.0% The highest constituency turnout was Twickenham (79.5%), won by the Liberal Democrats. Twickenham had the 4th highest turnout in the UK in 2015 (77.4%) and the highest in England (the top three spots were taken by Scottish constituencies in 2015). Seven of the top ten featured the Liberal Democrats in first or second place. Six of the ten constituencies with the smallest turnout were won by Labour, three by the SNP and one by the Conservatives. Glasgow accounted for four of the ten lowest constituency turnouts in the UK. 1.4 UK General Elections: turnout by age There are no official figures for voting by age, but a long-running academic survey, the British Election Study, provides reasonably consistent survey-based data for general elections since 1964. ESTIMATED TURNOUT BY AGE 18-24 25-34 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 35-44 45-54 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% 55-64 65+ 100% 100% 80% 80% 60% 60% 40% 40% 20% 20% 0% 0% Source: British Election Study 7 Commons Library Briefing, 5 July 2019 The decline and recent growth in young people’s engagement in politics has been a common theme in political discourse. As seen above, voter turnout has been typically low among young people relative to older age groups. The estimated turnout of 18-24 year olds in the 2017 General Election is the highest since 1992. 1.5 EU member comparisons Comparisons of turnout between countries should be used with some caution as in some instances voting is compulsory, for example in Belgium and Luxembourg, which may partially explain any observed differences. COMPARISONS OF PARLIAMENTARY ELECTION TURNOUT IN EUROPE Romania 37.8% France 42.6% Lithuania 50.6% Poland 50.9% Croatia 52.6% Slovenia 52.6% Bulgaria 53.9% Latvia 54.5% Portugal 55.8% Slovakia 59.8% Czech Republic 60.8% Estonia 63.7% Greece 63.9% Ireland 65.1% Cyprus 66.7% Finland 68.7% United Kingdom 68.8% Hungary 69.7% Spain 71.8% Italy 72.9% Germany 76.2% Austria 80.0% Netherlands 81.9% Sweden 85.8% Denmark 85.9% Belgium 88.38% Luxembourg 89.66% Malta 92.06% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Voter Turnout Database, accessed 10 June 2019. Note: It is not stated whether this data is calculated with valid and invalid votes as a percentage of the electorate, or just valid votes. The figure for the UK has been adjusted to match House of Commons Library data. The above chart shows the turnout for the most recent Parliamentary election in each EU member country. Across the 28 EU states the 8 Turnout at elections average turnout for Parliamentary elections was 66.5%. The UK 2017 General Election meant that the UK produced the 12th highest turnout for a Parliamentary election.
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