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Population Dynamics of Malawi: a Re-Examination of the Existing Demographic Data

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Population Dynamics of Malawi: A Re-examination of the Existing Demographic Data MARTIN ENOCK PALAMULENI a thesis submitted for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy to the Faculty of Economics, London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE), University of London. December 1991 UMI Number: U056058 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI U056058 Published by ProQuest LLC 2014. Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code. ProQuest LLC 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106-1346 or 'v political w| . JJ 'T0ttc\ 2 ABSTRACT This thesis examines the dynamics of population growth in Malawi with particular reference to the two decades immediately following independence. Due to insufficient data little is known about the demography of Malawi. This dissertation is therefore an attempt to remedy the situation and provide additional questions for future inquiries. Reliance has been on published demographic data obtained from the national censuses and demographic surveys. Reference has also been made to studies by independent researchers and other social and economic indicators obtained from various government publications. The inquiry begins by reviewing previous attempts to examine the population of Malawi. The quality and quantity of data available in the country is also assessed. This is followed by a brief discussion on the geography, history, social and economic characteristics of Malawi. The reported age distribution is then examined before presenting various estimates of mortality and fertility derived from both direct and indirect techniques. The final section explores the relationship between population and development in Malawi. The study has shown that (i) mortality has declined over the period under review, (ii) there was a reduction in the rate of mortality decline in the seventies, (iii) although fertility appears to have remained constant it is possible that it might have increased: however, if it did the rate of increase must have been negligible, (iv) the level of social and economic development in Malawi has remained low and is consistent with the observed high fertility and mortality. As a result of high and possibly increasing fertility and high but declining mortality, Malawi experienced a rapid population growth. This has inhibited improvements in some sectors of the economy. Therefore, to derive maximum benefits from future development projects population should form an integral part of the planning process. 4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT My thanks are due to those who have helped directly or indirectly in the completion of this work. My teachers, friends, acquaintances, colleagues, relatives and family have given me ideas, encouragement and hope. To them I am grateful. I should like to thank Dr. M.L. Srivastava, the Director of the Demographic Unit at Chancellor College, University of Malawi, for introducing me to demography, especially the demography of Malawi. I gratefully acknowledge his initial suggestion and encouragement to embark on this project and for his untiring and unselfish efforts to secure fellowships that enabled me to pursue graduate courses in formal demography. Thanks are also due to International Development Research Centre (IDRC) for awarding me fellowship to pursue a masters programme at LSE. Special thanks go to the United Nations for their fellowship that enabled me to undertake this research. In all these I owe various individuals who in their capacities and indeed acting on behalf of the Malawi Government and University of Malawi nominated me for both fellowships. I would like to acknowledge the help given to me during the preparation of this thesis by everyone in the department of population studies at LSE. I am sincerely indebted to my supervisors Dr Chris Wilson and Mr Chris Langford who were always at my disposal. I have benefited greatly from their comments, suggestions and of course criticisms. Other members of staff and research students in the department not only encouraged me to work hard but also through their comments helped to shape the presentation of the study. Throughout the study, I had the benefit of the co operation, understanding and moral support from my "entire" family who kept me current with home news. My dear friends Loyiso and Nyameka Mpumlwana and their family made their home available to me whenever I needed it: without these people I could not withstand cosmopolitan life in London. To all these people, I say, zikomo kwambiri, thank you very much. 6 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CICRED Committee for International Co-ordination of National Research in Demography Series CPS Centre for Population Studies CSO Central Statistical Office DCS Department of Community Services DEPD Department of Economic Planning and Development (formerly EPD) DOI Department of Information EPD Economic and Planning Division GOM Government of Malawi GOZ Government of Zimbabwe ICS Institute of Commonwealth Studies (University of London) IDA International Development Agency ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IUSSP International Union for the Scientific Study of Population KOL Kingdom of Lesotho KOS Kingdom of Swaziland LSE London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London) LSHTM London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (University of London) MG Malawi Government MOE Ministry of Education and Culture MOH Ministry of Health NPDP National Physical Development Programme NRDP National Rural Development Programme NSO National Statistical Office OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OPC Office of the President and Cabinet ROZ Republic of Botswana ROT Republic of Tanzania ROZ Republic of Zambia TCP Town and Country Planning UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa UNECWA United Nations Commission for West Asia UNFPA United Nations Fund for Population Activities UOM University of Malawi USAID United States Agency for International Development WHO World Health Organization ERRATA In this thesis all references of Odile, F. (1987) are actually of Frank, 0.(1987). Page 377. In the quotation from Read(1938), the Chichewa term "dongosolo" means planning. Page 396. First line of paragraph two should read Schistosomiasis and not Schistomasis. The following publications are missing from the Bibliography at the end of the thesis and should be included on the page numbers given in the brackets: a. FUTURE GROUP (1981) Malawi: The Effects of Population Factors on Social and Economic Development, Resources for the Awareness of Population Impacts on Development, Washington. (p. 494) b. HARRINGTON (1982) "Mortality in Infancy and Childhood in a Developing Economy: The Example of West Africa" in UDO, R.K. et. al. (ed) Population Education Source Book for Sub-Saharan Africa, Heinemann, Nairobi. (p. 495) 7 CONTENTS ABSTRACT 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT 4 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 6 LIST OF TABLES 9 LIST OF FIGURES 16 LIST OF APPENDICES 20 LIST OF SUPPLEMENTARY TABLES 21 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION 1.1 Population Growth: A Global Perspective 27 1.2 Sources of Demographic Statistics in Malawi 32 1.3 Population Growth in Malawi 40 1.4 Population Distribution in Malawi 45 1.5 Components of population Growth in Malawi 1.5.1 Fertility 47 1.5.2 Mortality 49 1.5.3 Migration 52 1.6 The statement of the Problem 57 1.7 Limitations of the Study 62^ 1.8 Outline of the Procedure 65 1.9 Organization of the Thesis 68 CHAPTER II BACKGROUND SITUATION OF MALAWI 2.1 Introduction 70 2.2 Geographical Background 70 2.3 Historical Background 74 2.4 Social and Economic Characteristics 2.4.1 Urbanization 80 2.4.2 Education 90 2.4.3 Health 96 2.4.4 Economy 97 2.5 Summary 112 CHAPTER III AGE AND SEX COMPOSITION 3.1 Introduction 114 3.2 Age Composition 116 3.3 Single Year Age Distributions 127 3.4 Five Year Age Groups 139 3.4.1 Sex Ratios 142 3.4.2 Age Ratios 155 3.4.3 UN Joint Age-Sex Index 156 3.5 Stable Population Analysis 161 3.6 Graduated Age Distributions 16^ 3.7 Summary 191 i 8 CHAPTER IV MORTALITY ESTIMATION 4.1 Introduction 193 4.2 Sources of Mortality data 195 4.3 Mortality Estimates From Reported Statistics 196 4.4 Mortality Estimates From Indirect Estimation 227 4.4.1 Infant and Childhood Mortality 227 4.4.2 Adult Mortality 248 4.4.3 Linking Childhood and Adult Mortality 260 4.5 Mortality Differentials 267 4.5.1 Regional Differentials 267 4.5.2 Rural-Urban Differentials 271 4.5.3 Sex Differentials in Mortality 276 4.6 Trends in Mortality 277 4.7 Causes of Death in Malawi 281 4.8 Summary 287 CHAPTER V FERTILITY ESTIMATION 5.1 Introduction 290 5.2 Sources of Data 291 5.3 Sources of Errors 292 5.4 Estimates of Fertility 5.4.1 Current Fertility 295 5.4.2 Lifetime Fertility 303 5.4.3 Indirect Estimates of Fertility 310 5.4.3.1 Brass Polynomial Function 310 5.4.3.2 Brass P/F Ratio 320 5.4.3.3 Gompertz Relational Model 327 5.4.3.4 Stable Population Analysis 341 5.5 Fertility Differentials 365 5.5.1 Rural-Urban Differentials 366 5.5.2 Regional Differentials 374 5.6 Trends in Fertility 399 5.7 Age Structure of Fertility 412 5.8 Summary 418 CHAPTER VI POPULATION,
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