CLIMATE FORECASTING FOR SMALL ISLAND NATIONS

Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities This brochure also provides an Services (NMHSs) and the make more informed decisions on Introduction from the opportunity to celebrate the great development and application climate sensitive sectors through Secretary General of the World progress made by organizations of science-based climate greater capacity development such as the Institute information and services in and direct technical support. It Meteorological Organization for and support of decision making. WMO has also been working to enable (CIMH). They are becoming global is now working with its partners greater sharing and collaboration leaders in the use of Climate to support increased investments by all small island nations and Outlook Forums (COFs) to actively in climate forecasting services by communities that share similar assist key decision-makers from all Small Island Developing States challenges, hopes and aspirations sectors such as agriculture, water, (SIDS) in the Pacific, Caribbean for sustainable development and mall Island Developing States (SIDS) are often affected by weather and energy in understanding the and Indian Ocean regions. improved livelihoods. extremes and , including the increased severity of implications of seasonal forecasts Around the globe, over 50 small Scyclones, storm surges, heavy rains, droughts, sea-level rise and for the coming three to four island nations share similar I invite you to read the ocean acidification. Investments in disaster risk reduction, including months. As just one example, challenges in responding to the entertaining and innovative case early warning systems and adaptation measures for critical sectors, COFs provided the spark for the impacts of climate change as studies in this brochure and are therefore critical for building resilient communities and facilitating Caribbean nation of Jamaica to well as similar challenges in cost- reflect on the fact that, despite sustainable development. use an innovative approach to effectively implementing climate their remoteness and limited climate forecasting to manage the services because of their limited resources, many of these small SIDS have demonstrated leadership in calling for action to reduce threats posed by coffee leaf rust human, operational and financial island developing nations are global greenhouse gas emissions while adapting to weather and disease while also finding clever resources. now leading the world in their climate extremes. They can also lead the way in applying weather ways to boost production. application of climate forecasting and climate services to support vital economic sectors and vulnerable WMO is also a lead partner services to strengthen their communities. This brochure shows how some of the world’s smallest The World Meteorological in the implementation of the economies and develop a island nations are now using new climate forecasting tools to boost Organization (WMO) supports Global Framework for Climate brighter, more hopeful future for their economies and enhance livelihoods in areas as diverse as SIDS through its Programme Services (GFCS), which provides their communities. renewable energy, agriculture and national economic planning. In for Least Developed Countries. a worldwide mechanism for these pages you will read about key champions of climate forecasting It also pursues more targeted coordinated actions to enhance services such as the President of the Seychelles and the Prime Minister actions such as capacity building the quality, quantity and Petteri Taalas of Samoa, who have been quick to realize the clear value of investing to enhance and strengthen application of climate services. Secretary-General of the World in climate forecasting services both to manage risks and to maximise the capacities of SIDS National The GFCS has been specifically Meteorological Organization economic opportunities posed by a changing climate. Meteorological and Hydrological working to empower SIDS to (WMO)

2 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 3 CARIBBEAN LEADS THE WORLD IN CLIMATE

FORECASTING “The Caribbean makes a lot of money out of its climate. Whether it’s tourism, agriculture or energy. Because the islands are so small, the SERVICES region is also very sensitive to water shortages,” he says.

Mr Mason says that one of the most innovative products the Caribbean now produces is a seasonal drought outlook that combines a prediction for the next few months together with information on very recent rainfall patterns. According to him, the simple act of combining these two pieces of information can provide a much clearer indication of the likelihood of water shortages will occur.

Mr Mason is well-positioned to comment on the current leadership provided by the Caribbean region. He wrote the software program that now makes it easier for climate scientists to make accurate seasonal forecasts up to three months into the future. He says the accuracy of longer range forecasts is based on new abilities to measure differences between the temperature of the atmosphere and the temperature of the ocean, which changes much more slowly.

“The Caribbean makes a lot of money out of its climate. Whether it’s tourism, imon Mason, a senior climate scientist from agriculture or energy.” the International Research Institute for SClimate and Society at Colombia University, Simon Mason, Climate Scientist, International Research Institute for Climate and says there is a good reason why the Caribbean is Society, Colombia University leading the world in climate forecasting.

4 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 5 “The ocean is critical for climate be in that forecast. If we know in Elizabeth Johnson is the “While we need to anticipating a drought coming stresses that this also means forecasting and the reason advance how likely we are to be representative of the Inter- the sooner we can have an early getting better at planning for good why we can predict the next right or wrong, then we can start American Institute for manage the risks it is warning of that, the longer time and bad seasons. few months is largely because making sensible decisions about Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA), we have to prepare and the more of our knowledge of unusual what to do and how much to based in Jamaica. She believes also very important effective we can be at mitigating “It’s very valuable for the conditions in the oceans. When invest,” he says. the main benefit of the CariCOF is that we look for those impacts,” he says. agricultural sector to know if we are forecasting the weather that it allows climate scientists the we’re going to have a good for the next few days, ultimately The Caribbean Institute for opportunity to sit around the table opportunities to This work has also led to Mr season ahead of us. If they can all we’re doing is asking: ‘What’s Meteorology and Hydrology with representatives from sectors take advantage of Mason spending considerable be fairly confident that the rains the weather like now and how (CIMH) is the regional climate such as water, energy, agriculture, time collaborating with leading will be very favourable this year, is it likely to change.’ And that services provider. Based in and tourism to exchange ideas favourable climate climate scientists from the they can be confident in putting works out to a few days, but once Barbados, the CIMH hosts the and look at climate-related Caribbean region. Scientists more investment into buying you get out to about a week, any Caribbean Regional Climate problems in a different way. conditions.” who, he says, are very keen to extra fertilizer or planting a larger information that we have about Centre (RCC) and manages the demonstrate that the region can percentage of their land. So, what the weather’s like now bi-annual Caribbean Climate “I think it would be beneficial as Simon Mason, Climate Scientist, be one of the leading centres in while we need to manage the essentially becomes useless,” he Outlook Forum, or CariCOF. A well to have sectors from all the International Research Institute for the world for providing climate risks, it is also very important that Climate and Society, Colombia University says. Climate Outlook Forum (COF) is ministries of national planning information. But while climate we look for opportunities to take a national or regional meeting in take part in this forum because, scientists are getting much better advantage of favourable climate Mr Mason says the secret to which climate scientists typically once they come and they see The CariCOF now typically at the science of forecasting, Mr conditions as well,” he says. making accurate predications up present a seasonal forecast for the potential of the information occurs at the end of May, which Mason believes the progress in to three months into the future the coming three to four months and see how it impacts all of marks the beginning of the wet/ the Caribbean has been based on is based on understanding when to key decision-makers in sectors the sectors, I think they will be hurricane season, and then at the realization that these forecasts surface of the ocean is unusually such as agriculture, water, disaster able to see how they can use the end of November for the dry need to be translated into hot or unusually cold risk management, energy and it in planning for the countries season. For Mr Mason the benefits information that organizations can health. These COFs are designed involved,” she says. of the CariCOF are obvious. actually use. “Of course, if we’re looking far to strengthen the interaction into the future, we are not going between regional institutions, “If we have a hurricane coming, “For example, if we do have a to get it right all the time. So National Meteorological and the more advanced the warning, lot of rain, what are the impacts we need to be able to provide a Hydrological Services and the the more prepared we can be. going to be? What do I need to forecast and have a very good end-users of climate information. The same is going to be true of prepare for, and what damage do idea of how confident we can climate events as well. If we’re I need to prevent?” And Mr Mason

6 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 7 RUPA KUMAR KOLLI EXPLAINS CLIMATE OUTLOOK FORUMS What are the main benefits of Climate Outlook Forums? All climate forecasts have an inevitable element of uncertainty, and the COFs help the participating countries to understand these uncertainties and manage their climate risks in a more informed way. The main benefit is to help countries interpret the multiple sources of information on seasonal forecasts, develop a consensus-based regional climate outlook and ensure consistent regional input for country-level outlooks. The COFs also provide platforms for training national operational staff with a common purpose, networking, sharing of experiences, user interaction and expert guidance. How much has the science of climate forecasting improved since you started your professional career as a climate forecaster?

When I started out as a climate forecaster in the early 1980s, seasonal forecasting was mostly based on empirical models and historical data. Now we have very sophisticated atmosphere-ocean models that are being increasingly used for climate forecasting by COFs. Seamless forecasting from weather to climate time-scales using dynamical models is now entering the operational domain. What impact have these COFs had around the world? r Kolli is the Chief of the World Climate The number of deaths from weather and climate extremes has Applications and Services Division at the drastically reduced over the past few decades. This is largely due to World Meteorological Organization. One of M early action powered by reliable weather and climate forecasts, and his main roles is to help WMO member countries the later includes early warnings provided by COFs. Many people to strengthen their climate forecasting services now take these for granted, but the fact remains that the lead time and to promote their use across climate-sensitive provided by early warnings is crucial for large-scale interventions by sectors such as agriculture, energy and water governments and aid agencies. management.

8 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 9 Why does the WMO think it is “Mainstreaming change they appear to perceive have been using innovative Another barrier is lack of effective hope these forums will become important to try and improve it as something happening in the approaches to enhance the COF communication strategies tailored a regular feature of the climate the use of climate forecasting the use of science- distant future, but how we deal product portfolio, and it is clearly to the capacities and contexts of service under the coordination of services in the SIDS regions? with the climate variability that is serving as a role model for COF the users in understanding and the National Meteorological and based and actionable already happening will determine operations around the world. applying climate information. Hydrological Services of all Small SIDS are sitting ducks for many how we will be able to cope Island Developing States. climate information What are the main barriers that What would be your greatest weather and climate hazards, with the surprises that climate are stopping more SIDS from wish in terms of strengthening such as tropical cyclones, storm in all climate- change will bring. If we can utilizing climate forecasting climate forecasting services in surges, floods, heatwaves, support more effective uses of sensitive decisions services to support national the SIDS regions? droughts and strong winds. Most climate forecasting in our decision planning and sustainable SIDS economies are small and is critical if we want making, this will help all of us to development? My greatest wish is to see all narrowly focused and therefore be prepared for future climate stakeholders in climate-sensitive vulnerable to a range of external to make SIDS truly shocks. shocks. The capacities of climate-smart.” The main barriers are lack of sectors routinely using climate weather and climate services Do you think the Caribbean awareness and appreciation of information in all their decision- within the SIDS are also very is leading the world in the the socio-economic benefits of making, much the same way as small, so regional consolidation Rupa Kumar Kolli, World Meteorological development of COFs and of climate forecasting services, and the aviation sector uses weather Organization. of climate forecasting capacities tailored climate forecasting also the absence of a suitable briefings. A pilot is aware of the has become a necessity to services for different sectors? mandate in many countries uncertainties associated with ensure effective and reliable Do you think climate forecasting to mainstream the use of weather forecasts but is mandated early warning and early action to services can also help to The Caribbean was a bit late in authentic climate forecasts in to use and apply the available cope with weather and climate provide SIDS with opportunities embracing the COF concept, decision-making. Of course, information and knowledge. I extremes. Mainstreaming the use for sustainable economic but they quickly came on many island countries also would urge all small island leaders of science-based and actionable development? top of it through active and have very small meteorology to support the development climate information in all climate- enthusiastic involvement of services so they are also faced of National Climate Outlook sensitive decisions is critical if we It is not uncommon to see one the member countries and with basic capacity issues. It is Forums (NCOFs) and National want to make SIDS truly climate- climate extreme wipe out years of a brilliant coordination effort very important to address the Climate Forums (NCFs) which can smart. investments in socio-economic by the Caribbean Institute of capacity development needs greatly help to support the use of development in many developing Meteorology & Hydrology. in terms of human-resource, climate forecasts and products countries, particularly SIDS. While CIMH has some really talented infrastructural, institutional as across all the different climate many people talk about climate and passionate scientists, who well as procedural capacities. sensitive sectors. In the future I

10 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 11 SEYCHELLES PRESIDENT BACKS CLIMATE FORECASTING President Michel also co-chairs the Global Island Partnership (GLISPA), SERVICES FOR SIDS which brings together world leaders to promote action on sustainable development in order to reduce the vulnerability of Small Island States (SIDS) to the impacts of climate change. The President firmly believes that investing in improved climate forecasting services could help his country to strengthen key economic sectors such as tourism, fisheries and the production of renewable energy.

President Michel was greatly heartened by the recent Agreement on climate change, and he hopes it will lead to concrete measures that will help to protect his vulnerable nation from the impacts of a changing climate. However he now also believes that the increasing climate variability in the Seychelles has led to a growing realization of the economic need to invest in improved climate forecasting services.

“Improving our climate forecasting services will help us to make more informed decisions about water resource management so we can try and prevent the increased risk of seasonal drought from impacting on people’s health, food supplies and the wider economy,” he says.

President Michel says his government has now made a significant investment in strengthening the Seychelles Meteorological Service to support the production of better weather and climate information, n December 2015 James including early warning services. Michel was elected to serve “If our National Meteorological Service can improve the way it his third and final term as I uses climate forecasting tools to make better predictions, our President of the Seychelles, meteorologists can ultimately work with users to provide forecasts that the small island nation in the will help them to make better decisions,” he says. Western Indian Ocean that he has led since 2004. The President also says the Seychelles is now working towards transforming its economy from one that relies on imported fossil fuels

12 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 13 to one benefiting from clean and services into information shapes the entire renewable sources of energy. A national planning and decision- new wind farm at Port Victoria national policies making process. In fact, President was opened in May 2014, and he Michel believes that Small Island says accurate climatic knowledge and strategies will Developing States could soon will be very useful in helping to help to enhance become the global leaders in determine the right locations to the use of these new forecasting install more wind farms. our planning and services to reduce reliance decision-making on imported fossil fuel while President Michel also believes increasing the use of renewable that improved forecasts of processes.” energy resources such as sunlight, prolonged drought or intense wind and hydropower. rainfall could help farmers make President James Michel, Republic of the more informed decisions, boost Seychelles “If SIDS are successful in doing crop and livestock insurance and this with limited resources, then it increase investment in communal sets the pace for bigger countries water systems. With all these “Mainstreaming climate with much greater resources to potential management benefits forecasting services into national follow suit. This has a positive in mind, the President believes policies and strategies will help bearing on the economy of SIDS there is now some urgency to try to enhance our planning and as well as on the economy of the to mainstream climate forecasting decision-making processes. This bigger nations. Greater savings services into decision-making information can then ultimately which are made through efficient for all climate sensitive sectors, be used to reduce climate-related planning processes can then such as water, energy, agriculture, losses and enhance benefits, be invested in other important transport, tourism and disaster including the protection of lives sectors of national economies. management. and property,” he says. This will eventually translate into In May 2014, the Seychelles government launched the Port Victoria Wind Farm as the country’s first large- an even lower carbon footprint In 2015 the Seychelles funded scale renewable energy project. The wind farm consists of eight wind turbines on two small islands off the for SIDS, at which point they will its first national climate outlook coast of Mahe that produce nearly 7 gigawatt-hours of energy, providing power to more than 2 000 homes become the real champions in forum and the President hopes and saving the national economy USD 2 million every year. The development of the wind farm is a major global greenhouse gas emission “Mainstreaming these new forums will improve step toward meeting the country’s target of producing 15 percent of its energy from renewable sources by reduction,” he says. climate forecasting the way climate forecasting 2030. The project was delivered by Masdar and financed through a grant of USD 28 million from the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development.

14 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 15 CLIMATE FORECASTING BOOSTS JAMAICA’S

COFFEE Coffee is Jamaica’s second most important agricultural crop after INDUSTRY sugarcane, and the sector employs approximately 120 000 people. In 2012, the Jamaican Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries estimated the country exported more than USD 13.8 million worth of coffee, mostly to Japan, which takes over 75% of the coffee produced in the Blue Mountains.

Gusland McCook from Jamaica’s Coffee Industry Board says Blue Mountain Coffee is now a key part of the country’s national identity. “People now make that linkage between Jamaica and Blue Mountain Coffee. So it’s a very important crop both as an agricultural item but also as a tourism product,” he says.

When the coffee leaf rust fungus first spread to Jamaica in 1986, growers tried to use chemicals to keep it in check. But experts now suspect that when coffee prices began to decline many growers tried to save money by cutting back on chemical sprays and fertilizer. This left many plants much more vulnerable to the fungus.

In December 2012 and September 2013, coffee leaf rust flared up again, and the Jamaica Coffee Industry board estimates that Blue Mountain farmers experienced losses of around USD 2 million. The economic damage was even greater for Central American countries, amaica’s Blue Mountain with estimated losses approaching USD 350 million. Coffee industry is Jcombining social science Most of Jamaica’s coffee is produced by small-scale farmers and, at with the latest developments its peak in the 2003-2004 season, the Blue Mountain Coffee industry in climate forecasting as part was producing 600 000 boxes of coffee which were earning the of an innovative approach to country USD 30 million in export revenues. Production is now down boost production and reduce to 200 000 boxes and revenues of just USD 13 million. Developing an the impacts of coffee leaf rust effective strategy for dealing with coffee leaf rust is viewed as a critical disease. part of the Coffee Board’s long-term strategy to get production back to peak levels.

16 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 17 Coffee leaf rust tends to develop new project to try developing a from the International Research “The Jamaica Kevon Rhiney, from the University Mr Rhiney refers to this during extended periods of wet Climate Early Warning System that and Application Project working of West Indies in Kingston, is challenging environment as the and humid conditions. Hurricanes could help to identify the climatic on this project. CariCOF is where we managing the social science “climate squeeze”. “The challenge can spread spores across different factors that trigger the outbreak of component of the project. He is that an increasingly variable elevations, and extended drought coffee leaf rust. “Our work with the Jamaica started to discuss and says this project is actually climate could reduce the ability periods can also weaken trees, coffee sector is innovative formulate the ideas helping Jamaica to work out of these farmers to cope. So making them more susceptible to This unique and innovative because it is trying to integrate how the country can support the that’s why it’s very important to the disease. The 2012 epidemic project was also designed to use both the physical climate and for the early warning development of climate resilient intervene in a way that is not just also raised concerns about social science approaches to the social context to co-create system for coffee communities. about climate but is also about all increasing resistance to fungicides understand how coffee farmers useable climate information in the other multiple pressures that and the potential market impact could help to co-create new direct partnership with Jamaican leaf rust and it has “It’s about understanding the DNA, these farmers have to deal with,” caused by any increased use of climate forecasting services that stakeholders. Also, developing the fabric of these communities he says. chemicals, especially given that could also help to boost the climate information from multiple been a wonderful that we’re working with, so Japan has very strict regulations overall productivity of Jamaica’s angles and then evaluating its collaboration.” we can figure out who are the on chemical minimum-residue coffee sector. The partners behind effect traditionally hasn’t been decision-makers, the change limits. this collaborative effort include done before in climate services,” agents and how we can work “You know it’s the International Research and he says. Elizabeth Johnson, the Inter-American together in a very challenging Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture In 2013, the Caribbean Institute Application Project (which is a environment.” a tremendously for Meteorology and Hydrology partnership between Columbia Elizabeth Johnson, the (CIMH) supported one of the University’s International Research Jamaica representative of the “With the early warning system, “Since 2010 Jamaica has had powerful tool for us.” first-ever Caribbean Climate Institution for Climate and Society Inter-American Institute for we are not only looking at the over four major droughts, and Outlook Forums in Jamaica. and the University of Arizona), Cooperation on Agriculture, says climactic factors and the plant we’re learning how they actually Richard Sharp, CEO of Clifton Mount Coff ee Plantations These CariCOFs are designed the University of West Indies, the it was the CariCOF that provided and the pathogen, but we are also cope with drought stress. Small to strengthen the interaction Jamaican Coffee Industry Board, the starting point for the entire looking at the human and socio- farmers don’t have the luxury of between National Meteorological the Inter-American Institute for project. economic factors. For example, just putting fertilizers in the field To help get a better understanding and Hydrological Services and the Cooperation on Agriculture, because if there is an extended “The Jamaica CariCOF is where does the farmer have to make of how farmers manage coffee end-users of climate information, and the Caribbean Institute for period of drought all of that we started to discuss and the decision of buying books and leaf rust and the broader such as the coffee industry. It Meteorology and Hydrology. fertilizer will go to waste. Then formulate the ideas for the early uniforms for his kids, or buying obstacles they face, about 600 was at this CariCOF meeting that where are they going to get their warning system for coffee leaf chemicals to spray at the same households in 12 coffee farming a number of key partners were Zack Guido from the University of money from? So you’re really rust and it has been a wonderful time?” she says. communities have been surveyed able to join forces and initiate a Arizona is one of the key people talking dollars and cents,” he says. collaboration,” she says. and interviews have undertaken

18 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 19 with key members of the entire coffee supply chain. Insights from the surveys, interviews, and exploratory climate science research will help the research team hone in on the climate information that farmers can actually use. The project is already exploring the development of new seasonal forecasts and whether they could help growers to anticipate their fertilizer and spraying needs. Fertilizer requires rain to deliver nutrients to the plants’ roots, and spraying pesticide is ineffective if the rain simply washes the chemicals away.

Richard Sharp, the CEO of Clifton Mount, one of the most famous and respected coffee plantations in the Blue Mountains, is in no doubt about the potential benefits of this new project.

“Once you’re able to forecast then you’ll be able to decide when to plant, when to fertilize, and when to reap. If you’re going to have excessive rain you may need to reduce your shade. If you’re going to have extended drought then you’re going to need to increase the shade. You know it’s a tremendously powerful tool for us,” he says.

20 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 21 CLIMATE FORECASTING SERVICES SUPPORT HONEY PRODUCTION drian Trotman, the Chief of Applied Meteorology and IN JAMAICA Climatology at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & AHydrology (CIMH), says they only discovered how important their seasonal forecasts were for Jamaica’s bee-keeping community after their website crashed.

“When our webpage went down because of a fault we got an e-mail from a bee-keeper in Jamaica saying: ‘Where is your information? I make important decisions based on this information. I need it!’” he says.

The man in question is Roy Murray, the Managing Director of Jamaica’s Apiculture Products and Services Limited (APS), one of the country’s largest commercial beekeeping businesses with more than 800 beehives located in six of Jamaica’s 14 parishes. In Jamaica alone there are some 2 500 beekeepers with over 42 000 hives of honeybees that produce liquid honey, almost all for local consumption. Hive productivity averages about 27.7 kg of honey per year, and beekeepers earn more than USD 8.75 million from sales to retailers. Most of their product reaches consumers as bottled honey, with a total market value of about USD 11.4 million.

amaica’s Blue Mountain While the industry employs 10 000 people on a seasonal, part-time or Coffee industry is full-time basis, Mr Murray says the main goal of APS is to boost supply Jcombining social science for its network of 300 local retail outlets while also building towards with the latest developments the longer-term goal of creating a viable export business. However, he in climate forecasting as part says, their business is almost totally at the mercy of variable climatic of an innovative approach to conditions. boost production and reduce the impacts of coffee leaf rust “The performance of honeybees and honey production is very disease. sensitive to weather and climatic conditions. From experience, the most important considerations for us are rainfall, drought, temperature

22 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 23 CLIMATE FORECASTING SAVES MILLIONS FOR FIJI’S SUGAR and wind. Naturally, we have good 3 to 6 month rainfall and it is generally accepted that INDUSTRY no control over any of these so temperature forecasts, and the it is profitable for beekeepers we monitor them closely to take reliability of this information has to feed their bees in times of actions that will mitigate adverse also been improving,” he says. excess rainfall, it can be difficult effects and allow maximum and costly to do so at late possible returns when conditions notice because some advance are favourable,” he says. preparation is required. Advance “The CIMH has been warning of above-normal rainfall “There is nothing that a beekeeper gives farmers valuable time can do but count his losses after giving very good 3 needed to prepare for bee feeding the occurrence of an unseasonal activities. weather event, such as prolonged to 6 month rainfall rainfall, a ‘cold front’ or high and temperature Below-normal rainfall can also winds. These conditions can lead to lower availability of nectar significantly diminish or wipe out forecasts and the and less honey. During these a honey crop, because of damage reliability of this times beekeepers avoid setting up done to flowers that honeybees new hives because they are more forage, as well as the restrictions information has also costly to keep. Given the harsh on the bees,” he says. drought conditions that affected been improving.” much of Jamaica in 2015 and the Mr Murrays says his company below-normal October rain, APS now makes important business Roy Murray, Managing Director, Apiculture was originally anticipating another avind Kumar, the decisions on the basis of Products and Services poor honey season and was Director of Fiji’s information gleaned from the considering a further reduction Meteorological reliable forecast information R He says the CIMH’s prediction that of its expansion plans. Thankfully, Service, says climate provided by agencies such rainfall would be below normal Mr Murray says these cuts may no forecasting services as CIMH and the National during September-November longer be necessary because the saved the nation’s sugar Meteorological Service of 2015 meant they decided to most recent forecast indicated industry millions of Jamaica. purchase less sugar for feeding there would above normal rainfall dollars in 2015. for much of the next honey “The CIMH has been giving very the colonies, which helped to directly reduce costs. While season.

24 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 25 “The industry had originally allocated millions of dollars for cane replanting, but “Farmers can says they now use this outlook to determine the crop varieties and this program was shelved after we provided early warning of El Niño conditions provide specific advice to farmers locations for planting,” he says. and below-average rainfall. Without this early warning, millions of dollars would make use of about different climate-related have gone to waste as severe dry conditions emerged later in the year,” he says. events that affect sugarcane The Fiji Sugar Corporation also climate forecasts production. uses this seasonal forecast The Fiji sugar industry was established over 100 years ago, and few other to avoid potential information to support its milling countries in the world depend as much on the effective management of this “Rainfall patterns have changed and marketing activities. Better commodity. Sugar is Fiji’s third highest export earner and it contributes up to losses, minimise significantly, and this is affecting rainfall forecasts can help to boost 40% of the nation’s total merchandise exports and 12% of its Gross Domestic planting and total production. profits by helping to determine Product (GDP). One in four people in Fiji depend on the sugar industry for their expenditure, We are now seeing fewer rain exactly when the mills can be livelihoods, and its small farm units still rely on manual planting and harvesting maximise yields days and less rainfall. In addition, opened each season in order techniques. there are longer spells of dry to allow the crop to achieve the and minimize the weather which is also affecting highest possible sugar levels. Fiji’s entire sugar crop is rain-fed and therefore highly dependent on levels of production,” he says. rainfall. Sugarcane requires water during the initial growing period but then environmental Mr Prakash agrees that the sugar depends on dry, cool conditions for sucrose accumulation. Nearly all of the impacts of farming Mr Prakash says that industry is now in a much better cane growers’ management decisions are dependent on weather and climate improvements in climate position to manage the risks and forecasts, from initial land preparation and planning to fertilization, herbicide operations.” forecasting are helping to support opportunities created by a varied spraying, weed management, cane harvesting and shipping. the development of the entire and changing climate. Sanjay Prakash, Acting CEO, Fiji Sugar sugar sector in Fiji. Mr Kumar says Fiji’s geographical location makes it highly vulnerable to climate Research Institute “Industry stakeholders are now variability and the frequency of many extreme types of weather, such as tropical “Farmers can make use of climate making more use of climate cyclones, storm surges, floods and droughts. forecasts to avoid potential information in their decision- The Fiji Meteorological Service losses, minimise expenditure, making process, such as when to “Fiji lies in an active cyclone zone with 1-2 cyclones passing within Fiji’s now provides a quarterly seasonal maximise yields and minimize the start or end the milling, where and Extended Economic Zone (EEZ) every season. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation rainfall outlook to support the environmental impacts of farming when to plant, and when to apply is one of the major drivers of climate variability in the region, and floods and production of sugarcane on Fiji’s operations. These new climate fertiliser,” he says. droughts are also a common occurrence. One of the worst floods to affect the two main islands of Viti Levu and forecasting services are now country occurred in 2009, followed by two larger floods in 2012. More recently Vanua Levu. Sanjay Prakash, the allowing for better management severe drought conditions have been experienced in 2010, 2014 and 2015,” he Acting Chief Executive Officer of water and fertiliser applications. says. of Fiji’s Sugar Research Institute, They are also helping to

26 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 27 CLIMATE FORECASTING BOOSTS SAMOA’S 100% RENEWABLE The Afulilo Hydropower Scheme was originally only designed to store water during wet season and operate at full capacity during the ENERGY dry season. Now, with support from the Australian-funded Climate and Oceans Support Programme in the Pacific (COSPPac), Samoa’s STRATEGY National Meteorology Division has been able to work closely with the Electricity Power Corporation (EPC) to produce a water storage outlook model that can ensure a reliable supply of energy all year round.

EPC General Manager, Tologata Tile Leia Tuimalealiifano says the high variability of Samoa’s rainfall had previously impacted on the reliability of Samoa’s entire energy-supply network. He says the new water- storage outlook model means they can now adjust their operational processes to enhance management of the available water resources at the reservoir.

The capacity of the Afulilo Dam is about 10 million cubic metres, providing enough storage to supply energy for up to six months. But it is the only one of the country’s five hydropower facilities that is powered by water from a reservoir rather than rivers.

“Nationally we have very limited storage capacity so we rely heavily n innovative climate-forecasting on Afulilo in terms of storing energy during the rainy season for the project is helping Samoa to meet dry season. So that’s why our partnership with the Met Service is very Aits ambitious target of producing important, because they can inform us of what is coming and we can 100% of its energy from renewable plan ahead. It puts us in a much better position to make informed sources by 2017. Hydropower is by far decisions about managing load demand and scheduling critical the biggest source of renewable energy maintenance of our facilities,” he says. in Samoa, and the Afulilo Dam on Upolu Island generates around one-fifth of the Tologata says that EPC is now receiving clear operational and country’s energy. economic benefits from its ongoing partnership with Samoa’s National Meteorology Division.

28 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 29 “When they advised us in 2015 “Climate forecasting “With hydropower we have Samoa’s reliance on imported organizations. The different that the El Niño could mean our quite a few small rivers which fossil fuels for power generation. organizations that want to benefit worst-ever dry season, we were services will play a we identified way back in 1972, from climate forecasting services then able to reserve water and and we have been reasonably “The development of hydropower really need to make an investment fix all our diesel generators so key role because successful in generating hydro plants needs at least five or more from their side to be able to we would not suffer from a lack developing a better power during the rainy season. years of historical data, so we develop relevant models that will of electricity during a drought But it is also important to vary our have been collecting the rainfall help to improve decision-making,” situation,” he says. understanding of own sources of supply to bring and the streamflow data to help he says. areas which are more in solar and wind to replace the support the future development Prime Minister Tuilaepa Lupesoliai reduced output from our water of these new hydropower plants,” Mr Nihmei says the real benefits of Neioti Aiono Sailele Malielegaoi prone to drought will resources,” he says. he says. climate forecasting will only start also believes that efforts to use to flow when different sectors climate forecasting services to allow us to allocate As recently as 2012 Samoa was Salesa Nihmei, the Climate see the financial benefits and improve the efficiency of its our climate change generating 60% of its energy from and Meteorology Officer at the decide to commit real investment hydropower generation is a key diesel generators, with total fuel Secretariat of the Pacific Regional into co-developing products and part of the country’s renewable adaptation resources imports amounting to 95 million Environment Programme, services. energy strategy. litres. Samoa’s Prime Minister says they now want to use more effectively.” believes that lowering the nations’ the example provided by the “Once these organizations can “Climate forecasting services reliance on fossil fuels will help relationship between Samoa’s see how they are able to save will play a key role because Prime Minister of Samoa, the Hon. free up government funds and National Meteorological Division money then their managers will developing a better understanding Tuilaepa Lupesoliai Neioti Aiono Sailele boost sustainable development. and the EPC to demonstrate really be able to buy into it. The of areas which are more prone to Malielegaoi the value of investing in climate national Met Services will then drought will allow us to allocate In addition to improving forecasting services. be able to provide improved our climate change adaptation the efficiency of the Afulilo services because the different The Prime Minister believes that resources more effectively,” he Hydropower Scheme, Tologata “We really want other interested SIDS governments will be able Samoa is now well on its way to says. says that new climate forecasting sectors to understand there has to to clearly see the economic achieving its target of producing services will help Samoa to be an investment on both sides. benefits,” he says. 30% of renewable energy from identify five new sites for If seasonal forecasting is going to hydropower, 30% from solar hydropower facilities which deliver real value you need data power, 20% from wind power and will further help to support the from the Met Service, but you also 20% from biomass and waste. government’s drive to reduce need good data from their partner

30 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 31 CLIMATE FORECASTING FOR HYDROPOWER PRODUCTION This new partnership is helping to provide longer term rainfall IN BELIZE forecasting and water supply data that will help to manage national demand for hydropower.

Although located on the Caribbean coast of Central America, Belize includes more than 200 islands and it is therefore recognized internationally as part of the group of Small Island Developing States. In terms of average annual production the Challilo Dam produces about 230 of the 240 total gigawatt hours of hydropower produced in Belize. In 2014 this met approximately 44% of the country’s annual energy demand.

Catherine Cumberbatch, Deputy Director of the Belize National Meteorological Service, says this new relationship emerged directly from efforts to improve the quality of their climate forecasting services for key sectors.

“For the past two years we have been holding National Climate Outlook Forums where we present our country seasonal forecast and try to find out the needs of our stakeholders. These forums helped us to understand the stakeholders’ needs and how we can further assist them, and the energy sector was one such sector,” she says.

partnership between As part of this process Belize was able to leverage over USD 1 Belize’s National million in support from the World Bank-funded Belize Energy AMeteorological Services Resilience for Climate Adaptation Project (ERCAP). This project will and Belize Electricity Limited involve the installation of automatic weather stations within the (BEL) is helping to increase Challilo catchment area and the development of a ground-breaking the efficiency of hydropower hydrological model, which will enable BEL to use forecasting data production from the Challilo to improve national hydro energy management and planning for the Dam and hydropower facility. nation’s energy demand.

32 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 33 move away from a reliance on alternative energies such as wind historical records. “The variations and solar, which are very variable “We are really eager in the data from historical water and change instantly,” he says. flow are too big so we need to to have the met have more variables and that Mr Longsworth says the rainfall can only happen by getting data has also been subject to service provide forecasting data from the Belize significant variation in recent us with stronger met service. If we know the years. “When we look at our volume of water that is coming historical data for water inflow forecasting services into the dam each month this will during the rainy season it has because this is let us know how much to draw been completely all over the down the dam levels each month place over the past five years. You something that and how to leave a certain margin don’t know what next year will for emergencies,” he says. bring, so that is where we could would definitely really benefit by getting stronger improve our Mr Longsworth says that projections for those periods of hydropower is the key area that the year,” he says. management of the stands to achieve the greatest improvements in the Belize Ms Cumberbatch says this energy sector in energy sector. project will not only build the country’s data set and capacity to terms of hydropower “We are really eager to have understand trends and projections in Belize.” the met service provide us with for the national energy sector, but stronger forecasting services it could also serve as useful model Kevin Longsworth, Control Centre because this is something that for other countries in the region. Manager, Belize Electricity Limited would definitely improve our management of the energy sector in terms of hydropower in Belize. Mr Kevin Longsworth, Manager The hydro-energy sector is easier of BEL’s Control Centre, says this to control because you can new approach will help them to store and manage it, unlike other

34 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 35 MEDIA TRAINING BOOSTS CLIMATE FORECASTING

MESSAGE drian Trotman, the Chief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology at Caribbean Institute for Hydrology and AMeteorology (CIMH), says it has become increasingly clear that meteorologists need to improve the way they communicate scientific information to the media and the wider public.

“We are trained to be scientists, to work on how to use equations, to use graphs, to use diagrams, to use maps, that’s our training. We are used to talking with other meteorologists and climatologists who can understand our jargon, but it is more difficult to express our thoughts and ideas to the general public So the real problem for us is that the way we say things and the way a farmer or a politician might understand this information is not necessarily the same thing,” he says.

With support from the World Meteorological Organization, the Caribbean Institute for Hydrology and Meteorology has now developed a new media training programme in collaboration with the well-known BBC World presenter and journalist David Eades. As part of this training programme, over 40 meteorologists and journalists from throughout the Caribbean region participated in two separate training events designed to help increase understanding and cooperation between these two professions.

Mr Trotman says he now firmly believes that developing stronger and more trusted relationships with the media can also help to improve the way they communicate to decision-makers and the people who stand to benefit the most from this critical climate information.

“When it comes to communicating scientific information, there also has to be trust and understanding. The only we can build this trust is through greater engagement and through interacting with each other on a more regular basis. And, in order to get better at communicating

36 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 37 with our key audiences, we also so that all of us understand what their key messages in a clear have to get better at listening to the questions are and what the and simple way. A separate why this information is important answers are,” he says. training was then designed to to them,” he says. help journalists to understand the Elesha George, one of the benefits of seasonal forecasts and Mr Eades says the main objective participating journalists from the how to relay critical information of his training was to provide Antigua Observer, says the training to people working in climate- both the meteorologists and has transformed her ability to sensitive sectors such as journalists with practical skills in make climate forecasting into agriculture, energy, water, tourism communicating climate forecast useful news stories that people and disaster risk reduction. information in a simple and want to read. engaging way. The training was also designed to help national “Bringing together journalists and meteorology services to produce those directly involved in climate more proactive stories that could related fields was a real eye communicate the business and opener. Prior to this workshop it economic benefits of climate was quite challenging to develop forecasting services. a captivating story based on climate predictions. But now I “I think one of the biggest have a better understanding of challenges for meteorologists is how to let the general public how do you get your message know how climate predictions can over to people who don’t affect their livelihoods,” she says. necessarily understand the subject in the way that you do, so that’s The hands-on training package basically most of us. I think the for meteorologists was specifically importance of looking at how designed to provide practical you come across in the media is techniques for engaging the working out what is clear, what media. A series of on-camera is simple, what are the good training exercises was also used examples and good illustrations to help them to communicate

38 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 39