Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations

CLIMATE FORECASTING FOR SMALL ISLAND NATIONS Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities This brochure also provides an Services (NMHSs) and the make more informed decisions on Introduction from the opportunity to celebrate the great development and application climate sensitive sectors through Secretary General of the World progress made by organizations of science-based climate greater capacity development such as the Caribbean Institute information and services in and direct technical support. It Meteorological Organization for Meteorology and Hydrology support of decision making. WMO has also been working to enable (CIMH). They are becoming global is now working with its partners greater sharing and collaboration leaders in the use of Climate to support increased investments by all small island nations and Outlook Forums (COFs) to actively in climate forecasting services by communities that share similar assist key decision-makers from all Small Island Developing States challenges, hopes and aspirations sectors such as agriculture, water, (SIDS) in the Pacific, Caribbean for sustainable development and mall Island Developing States (SIDS) are often affected by weather and energy in understanding the and Indian Ocean regions. improved livelihoods. extremes and climate change, including the increased severity of implications of seasonal forecasts Around the globe, over 50 small Scyclones, storm surges, heavy rains, droughts, sea-level rise and for the coming three to four island nations share similar I invite you to read the ocean acidification. Investments in disaster risk reduction, including months. As just one example, challenges in responding to the entertaining and innovative case early warning systems and adaptation measures for critical sectors, COFs provided the spark for the impacts of climate change as studies in this brochure and are therefore critical for building resilient communities and facilitating Caribbean nation of Jamaica to well as similar challenges in cost- reflect on the fact that, despite sustainable development. use an innovative approach to effectively implementing climate their remoteness and limited climate forecasting to manage the services because of their limited resources, many of these small SIDS have demonstrated leadership in calling for action to reduce threats posed by coffee leaf rust human, operational and financial island developing nations are global greenhouse gas emissions while adapting to weather and disease while also finding clever resources. now leading the world in their climate extremes. They can also lead the way in applying weather ways to boost production. application of climate forecasting and climate services to support vital economic sectors and vulnerable WMO is also a lead partner services to strengthen their communities. This brochure shows how some of the world’s smallest The World Meteorological in the implementation of the economies and develop a island nations are now using new climate forecasting tools to boost Organization (WMO) supports Global Framework for Climate brighter, more hopeful future for their economies and enhance livelihoods in areas as diverse as SIDS through its Programme Services (GFCS), which provides their communities. renewable energy, agriculture and national economic planning. In for Least Developed Countries. a worldwide mechanism for these pages you will read about key champions of climate forecasting It also pursues more targeted coordinated actions to enhance services such as the President of the Seychelles and the Prime Minister actions such as capacity building the quality, quantity and Petteri Taalas of Samoa, who have been quick to realize the clear value of investing to enhance and strengthen application of climate services. Secretary-General of the World in climate forecasting services both to manage risks and to maximise the capacities of SIDS National The GFCS has been specifically Meteorological Organization economic opportunities posed by a changing climate. Meteorological and Hydrological working to empower SIDS to (WMO) 2 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 3 CARIBBEAN LEADS THE WORLD IN CLIMATE FORECASTING “The Caribbean makes a lot of money out of its climate. Whether it’s tourism, agriculture or energy. Because the islands are so small, the SERVICES region is also very sensitive to water shortages,” he says. Mr Mason says that one of the most innovative products the Caribbean now produces is a seasonal drought outlook that combines a prediction for the next few months together with information on very recent rainfall patterns. According to him, the simple act of combining these two pieces of information can provide a much clearer indication of the likelihood of water shortages will occur. Mr Mason is well-positioned to comment on the current leadership provided by the Caribbean region. He wrote the software program that now makes it easier for climate scientists to make accurate seasonal forecasts up to three months into the future. He says the accuracy of longer range forecasts is based on new abilities to measure differences between the temperature of the atmosphere and the temperature of the ocean, which changes much more slowly. “The Caribbean makes a lot of money out of its climate. Whether it’s tourism, imon Mason, a senior climate scientist from agriculture or energy.” the International Research Institute for SClimate and Society at Colombia University, Simon Mason, Climate Scientist, International Research Institute for Climate and says there is a good reason why the Caribbean is Society, Colombia University leading the world in climate forecasting. 4 Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities Climate Forecasting for Small Island Nations | Managing Risks, Maximizing Opportunities 5 “The ocean is critical for climate be in that forecast. If we know in Elizabeth Johnson is the “While we need to anticipating a drought coming stresses that this also means forecasting and the reason advance how likely we are to be representative of the Inter- the sooner we can have an early getting better at planning for good why we can predict the next right or wrong, then we can start American Institute for manage the risks it is warning of that, the longer time and bad seasons. few months is largely because making sensible decisions about Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA), we have to prepare and the more of our knowledge of unusual what to do and how much to based in Jamaica. She believes also very important effective we can be at mitigating “It’s very valuable for the conditions in the oceans. When invest,” he says. the main benefit of the CariCOF is that we look for those impacts,” he says. agricultural sector to know if we are forecasting the weather that it allows climate scientists the we’re going to have a good for the next few days, ultimately The Caribbean Institute for opportunity to sit around the table opportunities to This work has also led to Mr season ahead of us. If they can all we’re doing is asking: ‘What’s Meteorology and Hydrology with representatives from sectors take advantage of Mason spending considerable be fairly confident that the rains the weather like now and how (CIMH) is the regional climate such as water, energy, agriculture, time collaborating with leading will be very favourable this year, is it likely to change.’ And that services provider. Based in and tourism to exchange ideas favourable climate climate scientists from the they can be confident in putting works out to a few days, but once Barbados, the CIMH hosts the and look at climate-related Caribbean region. Scientists more investment into buying you get out to about a week, any Caribbean Regional Climate problems in a different way. conditions.” who, he says, are very keen to extra fertilizer or planting a larger information that we have about Centre (RCC) and manages the demonstrate that the region can percentage of their land. So, what the weather’s like now bi-annual Caribbean Climate “I think it would be beneficial as Simon Mason, Climate Scientist, be one of the leading centres in while we need to manage the essentially becomes useless,” he Outlook Forum, or CariCOF. A well to have sectors from all the International Research Institute for the world for providing climate risks, it is also very important that Climate and Society, Colombia University says. Climate Outlook Forum (COF) is ministries of national planning information. But while climate we look for opportunities to take a national or regional meeting in take part in this forum because, scientists are getting much better advantage of favourable climate Mr Mason says the secret to which climate scientists typically once they come and they see The CariCOF now typically at the science of forecasting, Mr conditions as well,” he says. making accurate predications up present a seasonal forecast for the potential of the information occurs at the end of May, which Mason believes the progress in to three months into the future the coming three to four months and see how it impacts all of marks the beginning of the wet/ the Caribbean has been based on is based on understanding when to key decision-makers in sectors the sectors, I think they will be hurricane season, and then at the realization that these forecasts surface of the ocean is unusually such as agriculture, water, disaster able to see how they can use the end of November for the dry need to be translated into hot or unusually cold risk management, energy and it in planning for the countries season. For Mr Mason the benefits information that organizations can health. These COFs are designed involved,” she says. of the CariCOF are obvious. actually use. “Of course, if we’re looking far to strengthen the interaction into the future, we are not going between regional institutions, “If we have a hurricane coming, “For example, if we do have a to get it right all the time.

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