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Climate Change-Emissions- Energy Policy Climate change-emissions- energy policy Prof. Petteri Taalas Secretary-General World Meteorological Organization • UN Specialized Agency on weather, climate & water • 192 Members, HQ in Geneva • 2nd oldest UN Agency, 1873- • Coordinates work of > 200 000 national experts from meteorol- ogical & hydrological services, WMO HQ in Geneva academia (& private sector) • Co-Founder and host agency of IPCC (1st World Climate Conference) • Co-Founder of UNFCCC (2nd World Climate Conference) • WMO SG UN Climate Principal (1/3) 2 WMO Mission/key activities 1. World climate observation & research 2. Weather, climate and hydrological services 3. Earth System observations coordination & technology standardization 4. Strengthening of the national service capabilities 5. Efficient governance 3 WMO Global forecasting & climate centres The climate system 2020 was among three warmest years on record • 1.2 ± 0.1 °C above pre-industrial • 2011-2020 will be the warmest decade on record • Despite the current La Niña conditions, this year has already shown near record heat comparable to the previous record of 2016 Temperatures 2020 vs. 1981-2010 Unusual heat in Russia La Niña developed in latter half of 2020 Health Heat Health risks, Pollution and Vector -borne and water- borne diseases increasing Exposure to Heatwaves • 220 million more exposures than average to heat waves • 91% of the world’s population breathing air in which pollutants exceed WHO air quality guidelines. • Dengue: 1 050 000 cases in Aug- Oct 85% were reported by: - Brazil - Philippines - Mexico - Nicaragua - Thailand - Malaysia - Colombia Ocean heat content 1961->2019 Greenhouse gases: new records 2019 Carbon dioxide Methane CO2 CH4 66% of warming 16 % of warming Lifetime >>100 y Lifetime 11 y 1877 ppb 410.5 ppm Nitrous oxide N2O 6 % of warming Lifetime 120 y 332 ppb Warming impact of greenhouse gases 11 Ocean acidification Ocean acidification is a global problem that threatens marine organisms, ecosystems, services and resources and that has potentially considerable ecological and socio-economic consequences (food security, livelihood of fishing communities) DATA SET: SOCAT v4 Data Collection VARIABLE: fCO2 recommended (μatm) 01-Jan-1957 00:00 to 31-Dec-2016 00:00 Water stress is a global challenge Source WRI Water availability & population growth 2050 About 4 billion people, representing nearly two-thirds of the world population, experience severe water scarcity during at least one month of the year Emissions-sea level rise 1800-2100 So far 26 cm rise Melting of global 31 glaciers 1950-2019 Largest changes in the Arctic Multi-year ice 1984 2016 The Northern sea routes Biggest risks for World’s economy 2021 by WEF Major natural disasters 1980 - 2018 Earth quakes/ Storm events Flooding events Heat wave/drought Source MunichRE tsunamis Large weather disasters: economic losses & mortality ~4.5 billion people affected 1998-2017 96% of disasters weather related 22 Loss events worldwide 1980 – 2018 Number Source: Munich Re Uneven economic impact of current warming Impact of 1°C temperature increase on per capita output GDP Change % Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook Carbon emissions-temperature 3 C warming is a major risk for food security Loss of crop yield in most parts of the world 26 Global temperature – the next 5 years Use decadal forecasts Met Office decadal forecast suggests a 10% chance of exceeding 1.5°C in the next 5 years Arctic and global temperatures 1900-2100 Averaged over 36 global climate models RCP 4.5 (blue)= upper end of Paris COP21 Agreement , RCP 8.5 (red)= business as usual (modified from AMAP/SWIPA2017) Total global emissions Total global emissions: 43.0 ± 3.3 GtCO2 in 2019, 56% over 1990 Percentage land-use change: 39% in 1960, 14% averaged 2010–2019 Land-use change estimates from three bookkeeping models, using fire-based variability from 1997 Source: CDIAC; Houghton and Nassikas 2017; Hansis et al 2015; Gasser et al 2020; van der Werf et al. 2017; Friedlingstein et al 2020; Global Carbon Budget 2020 Wild fires contribute to CO2 emissions Arctic: summer CO2 emission highest since 2003 Energy use by source Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2019, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2014 to 2019 This figure shows “primary energy” using the BP substitution method (non-fossil sources are scaled up by an assumed fossil efficiency of approximately 0.38) Source: BP 2020; Jackson et al 2019; Global Carbon Budget 2020 Energy use in the European Union Consumption of both oil and gas has rebounded in recent years, while coal continues to decline. Renewables are growing strongly. Source: BP 2020; Jackson et al 2019; Global Carbon Budget 2020 How to become carbon neutral by 2050? Climate change/security policy 1. Agriculture: great difficulties in Africa, Mediterranean region, Americas, India, China. High northern latitudes are gaining, but can not compensate losses in more fertile areas. 2. World economy. Climate mitigation to reach 1.5-2.0 C ~twenty fold cheaper than inaction. Economic losses rapidly growing, island and African economies hit hardest. Absolute losses greatest in USA & Eastern Asia. 3. Oil & gas dependent economies. E.g. Russia, Arabic countries etc. highly dependent on fossil energy income. Risk for destabilization related to climate mitigation and/or cessation of oil/gas resources. 4. Africa. Economies, employment and food security highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture. Population growth 1 => 4 billion by 2100 expected: source of crisis, refugees and death of hunger. 5. Europe. Mediterranean countries will suffer. Potential for immigration great, political impacts already visible; threat for European Union. Coal ban already in 1306! Global fossil fuel subsidies ~4.7 tn $ Major flows production -> consumption Flows from location of generation of emissions to location of consumption of goods and services Values for 2011. EU is treated as one region. Units: MtCO2 Source: Peters et al 2012 Major flows extraction -> consumption Flows from location of fossil fuel extraction to location of consumption of goods and services Values for 2011. EU is treated as one region. Units: MtCO2 Source: Andrew et al 2013 Air Quality, PM 2.5 Air pollutants, NO2 Fossil fuels and air pollution London smog 1952, ~12000 casualties شكرا لكم Thank you Gracias Merci Спасибо 谢谢.
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