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Morning Wrap Morning Wrap Today ’s Newsflow Equity Research 22 Aug 2016 Upcoming Events Select headline to navigate to article Kingspan Another roaring set of results Company Events Dalata Hotel Group Ireland continues strong RevPAR 22-Aug Kingspan; Q2 2016 results 23-Aug Persimmon; Q2 2016 results performance Rank Group; Q4 2016 results 24-Aug Paddy Power Betfair; Interim results 25-Aug CRH; H1 2016 results Playtech; Interim results Rockwool; Q2 2016 results 26-Aug Independent News & Media; Q2 2016 results The Restaurant Group; Q2 2016 results 29-Aug Green REIT; Q4 2016 results Economic Events Ireland 22-Aug PPI m/m Jul 2016 29-Aug Retail Sales M/M Jul 2016 United Kingdom 24-Aug BBA Mortgage Approvals Jul 2016 26-Aug GDP Q2 2016 29-Aug Nationwide House Prices Aug 2016 United States Europe Goodbody Capital Markets Equity Research +353 1 6419221 Equity Sales +353 1 6670222 Bloomberg GDSE<GO> Goodbody Stockbrokers (trading as Goodbody) is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. For the attention of US clients of Goodbody Securities Inc, this third-party research report has been produced by our affiliate Goodbody Stockbrokers. Please see the end of this report for analyst certifications and other important disclosures. Goodbody Morning Wrap Kingspan Another roaring set of results Kingspan has reported trading profits of €167m for the first six months of the year, Recommendation: Buy representing yoy growth of 50% and significantly ahead (10%) of our estimate of €153m. Closing Price: €22.79 The key variance was a significantly better than expected margin performance in the Robert Eason Insulation businesses (driven by stronger drop-through and a higher contribution from +353-1-641 9271 acquisitions), resulting in group margins coming in at 11.4%, up 240bps yoy and well ahead [email protected] of estimates of 10.3%. Broadly in line financial / tax charges resulted in adjusted eps of 72c being also 10% ahead of Goodbody forecasts. Net debt at the end of June was €348m (0.9x EBITDA), ahead of our estimates, reflecting the better profit outturn and a lower than expected seasonal working capital outflow. During the period Kingspan deployed €55m on capex (1.9x depreciation) and €83m on two acquisitions (Euroclad, a UK based supplier of architectural metal roof / wall solutions, and Tankworks, a rainwater harvesting business in Australia). Since the period end, these have been supplemented with two further deals for a total consideration of €129m; Eurobond, a UK insulated panel business; and, Essmann, a European daylighting business. This development is consistent with the company’s strategy of “Completing the Envelope”. The second half of the year has started well with good order intake in Q2, leading to underlying group sales from June 30 to August 12 “being comfortably ahead of the same period last year”. In addition, order intake over the same period for the UK is up 7% and the long term pipeline has remained robust since period end with no cancellations. Notwithstanding the potentially more challenging macro backdrop and the well documented increasing headwinds from currency / input costs, we are upgrading FY16/FY17 forecasts by c.10%. This reflects a very strong underlying H1 performance, a solid start to H2 and good M&A activity. The continuation of the forecast upgrade cycle for Kingspan highlights a number of strengths of the group, particularly, its increased geographic footprint, the benefits of product innovation and the ability to utilise a strong balance sheet to take advantage of development growth opportunities. As a result, we continue to recommend Kingspan as a BUY. Home… Page 2 22 Aug. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Dalata Hotel Group Ireland continues strong RevPAR performance STR Global released July hotel data on Friday night. Dublin hotels continued their strong Recommendation: Buy performance with July RevPAR growth of +19.4% yoy to €127.56 (occupancy was +0.6% Closing Price: €4.15 yoy to 90.2% and ADR +18.7% yoy to €141.38). In Ireland regional, occupancy was +0.5% Kevin McDermott yoy to 86.1% with ADR increasing by +12% yoy to €128.70 leading to RevPAR growth of +353-1-641 9162 +13% yoy to €110.87. Therefore ytd, we continue to see strong RevPAR growth in both [email protected] Dublin and Ireland Regional with +21.1% and +14% respectively. In London, RevPAR in July was +4% to £137.18 (occupancy +0.1% and ADR +3.8% yoy). This was largely due to an increase in demand and ADR as a result of the Farnborough air show (11-17 July) which is only held on even years and attracts c.200,000 people (public visitors and traders). The weaker sterling has also led to increased visitors into the UK. However, the London hotel market has seen an overall decline ytd in RevPAR of -2.3%. Overall, Dublin continued its strong performance in July and Dalata, with over 45% of its rooms in Dublin (56% of EBITDA), is well placed to benefit. The supply of new rooms in the Dublin market remains limited with any significant pipeline of new rooms only due to commence in 2018. London rooms make up 8% of Dalata’s portfolio and while London RevPAR remains weak ytd we expect Dalata to outperform as a result of the Chiswick refurbishment last year. We re-iterate our BUY recommendation. Home… Page 3 22 Aug. 16 Goodbody Morning Wrap Market Data Top 10 Covered Companies Company Price Mkt Cap Absolute Relative to European Sector P/E (LC) (LCM) 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd 2016f 2017f CRH 28.97 23,629 -1.5 2.0 10.0 8.5 -0.7 3.8 9.1 16.7 18.2 14.4 AIB Group 6.40 17,478 0.1 -5.9 -0.5 -3.9 0.9 -4.2 -1.3 3.3 12.3 22.4 HeidelbergCement 80.40 15,953 -0.1 0.6 13.0 6.3 0.7 2.3 12.0 14.3 15.5 14.1 Ryanair 11.95 15,409 -0.5 -2.8 3.7 -20.4 0.3 -1.1 2.9 -14.4 14.2 11.3 Kerry Group 77.23 13,577 0.3 -1.0 -4.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 -5.0 8.8 23.8 21.2 Wolseley 42.85 11,143 0.1 -0.5 5.5 16.1 0.1 0.9 1.1 6.1 17.0 14.9 Paddy Power Betfair 98.85 8,274 0.7 3.2 11.6 8.9 0.7 4.6 7.0 -0.5 32.1 26.3 IAG 3.85 7,824 -1.1 -5.6 -9.1 -37.0 -0.3 -3.9 -9.9 -32.2 5.3 4.5 Mondi 15.80 7,672 -1.0 -2.8 10.0 18.4 -0.2 -1.1 9.0 27.4 12.3 11.8 DCC 71.50 6,308 0.4 2.6 5.0 26.3 0.4 4.0 0.6 15.4 21.0 25.6 Indices ISEQ performance % Price 1 Day 1 Week 1 Mth Ytd ISEQ 6,042.89 -0.44 -0.16 4.08 -11.03 6,800 FTSE 100 6,858.95 -0.15 -0.83 2.41 9.88 6,600 6,400 DAX 30 10,544.36 -0.55 -1.58 5.64 -1.85 6,200 CAC 40 4,400.52 -0.82 -2.21 1.63 -5.10 6,000 FTSE Eurofirst 300 1,339.75 -0.74 -1.70 0.57 -6.80 5,800 Nasdaq 5,238.38 -0.03 0.10 4.01 4.61 5,600 S&P 500 2,183.87 -0.14 -0.01 0.93 6.85 5,400 Dow Jones 18,552.57 -0.24 -0.13 -0.03 6.47 5,200 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nikkei 225 16,545.82 0.36 -2.21 -1.06 -13.07 Exchange Rates Current Px 1 day Px 1 Week Px Dec15 Avg Ytd Stg/€ 0.867 0.860 0.864 0.737 0.794 STOXX 600 performance US$/€ 1.132 1.133 1.118 1.086 1.115 CHF/€ 1.087 1.085 1.088 1.087 1.094 390 JPY/€ 113.426 113.467 112.802 130.676 122.250 380 370 Bonds 360 350 Yield 1 Day Yld 1 Wk Yld 1 Mth Yld 3 Mth 340 US 2 Yr 0.75 0.04 0.75 0.06 -0.13 330 US 10 Yr 1.58 0.04 0.07 0.03 -0.27 320 310 UK 2 Yr 0.15 0.02 0.02 -0.01 -0.28 300 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 UK 10 Yr 0.62 0.07 0.10 -0.18 -0.82 BD 2 Yr -0.62 0.00 0.01 -0.62 -0.12 BD 10 Yr -0.04 0.05 0.08 -0.04 -0.21 Irish 10 Yr 0.43 0.05 0.11 -0.05 -0.41 Commodities FTSE 250 performance % Current 1 day 5 day 1 Mth 1 Yr 18,000 Brent (ICE $/bbl) 50.88 -0.02 8.32 9.04 7.89 17,500 Gasoline (NYM $/Gal) 1.51 1.56 10.36 9.97 -2.97 17,000 Heat Oil (NYM $/Gal) 1.52 -0.42 7.88 9.79 0.11 16,500 Nat.Gas 2.58 -3.37 -0.08 -5.28 -4.86 Gold $/oz 1,346.40 -0.27 -0.43 1.16 19.56 16,000 Silver $/ozt 19.42 -1.85 -2.29 -2.88 30.83 15,500 Copper U$/MT 4,774.00 -0.59 0.59 -3.32 -4.64 15,000 Wheat $/BU 4.45 0.11 5.27 6.40 -11.05 14,500 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Source : FactSet Page 4 22 Aug.
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