25/06/2021 Title

Impact of COVID-19 on the West Economy

‘Snapshot’ Monthly Report June 2021 (Issue 13)

West Sussex County Council

This is a monthly ‘snapshot’ on the impact of Covid-19 on the economy, produced by the County Council’s Insight and Economy teams with contributions from partners. The data presented here is publicly available and any analysis provided is for information purposes only.

The latest COVID-19 figures relating to West Sussex are available on the county dashboard.

Previous reports can be found on the Business West Sussex website.

If you have any questions relating to the information in this report, please email [email protected] or [email protected]

1/1 25/06/2021 Current measures Current lockdown measures and key economic headlines

What are the rules in now? England is currently in Step 3 of roadmap out of lockdown, with the Government extending this step until 19 July, subject to review.

A few restrictions have eased: The number of guests at a wedding is no longer limited to 30 Care home residents do not necessarily have to self-isolate if they go on a trip out of the home Children can go on overnight trips in groups of 30

Large events pilots will also continue, including more Euro 2020 games.

There has been some easing of international travel, which will take effect from 4pm on Wednesday 30 June, with new countries being added to a 'green watchlist' meaning that they are at risk of moving to the amber list. These traffic light decisions are reviewed every three weeks. The UK government says you should not holiday in amber and red countries. If you do, quarantine rules apply and there are Covid tests before and after you return.

Ministers still have to consider the findings of reviews on face coverings and social distancing before deciding when all limits could be lifted.

Recent economic reports Institute for Employment Studies A monthly briefing note that reports on the latest national labour market trends (Labour Market Statistics, June 2021) IES Briefing June 2021

Centre for Cities A research and policy institute dedicated to improving the economic success of UK Cities and large towns (which includes and in West Sussex) ‘So you want to level up?’ ‘An uneven recovery? How Covid-debt and Covid-saving will shape post-pandemic cities Reporting on Coronavirus cases

1/1 25/06/2021 GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP), UK

Source: ONS, GDP Monthly Estimate Released: 11 June 2021

UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 2.3% in April 2021, the fastest monthly growth since July 2020, as government restrictions affecting economic activity continued to ease.

The service sector grew by 3.4% in April 2021, with consumer-facing services re-opening in line with the easing of coronavirus restrictions and more pupils returning to onsite lessons. Retail sales volumes grew sharply in April 2021 reflecting the reopening of all non-essential retail from 12 April in England and Wales.

Output in the production sector fell by 1.3% in April 2021, the first fall since January 2021 as three of the four sectors contracted. The largest contribution to the fall in manufacturing came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and preparations, and the manufacture of transport equipment.

Within production, mining and quarrying output contracted sharply, by 15.0%, in April 2021 because of planned temporary closures for maintenance of oil field production sites.

The construction sector contracted by 2.0% in April 2021 following a strong March, with new work slowing down faster than repair and maintenance.

April’s GDP remains 3.7% below the pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020, however it is now 1.2% above its initial recovery peak in October 2020.

Monthly index, UK

2018=100 100 101.9 97.5

90

87.8

80 76.4

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

1/1 25/06/2021 Labour Market Labour Market, UK

Source: ONS, Earning and Employment from Pay As You Earn Released: 15 June 2021

Early estimates for May 2021 indicate that the number of payrolled employees rose by 0.5% compared with May 2020, which is a rise of 141,000 employees; the number of payrolled employees is down by 1.9% since February 2020, a fall of 553,000.

In May 2021, 197,000 more people were in payrolled employment when compared with April 2021.

Early estimates for May 2021 indicate that median monthly pay increased by 9.1%, compared with May 2020 and median pay increased by 5.6% when compared with February 2020.

Payrolled employees, seasonally adjusted, UK

29.1M 29M 28.9M

28.5M

28M

27M

26.8M 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1/1 25/06/2021 Businesses Businesses, UK

Source: ONS, Business insights and impact on the UK economy and Gov.uk, Monthly Insolvency Statistics Released: 17 June 2021 and April 2021

Businesses currently trading The percentage of UK businesses currently trading has remained consistent from late May 2021 to early June 2021, at 87%, the joint highest percentage of businesses currently trading since comparable estimates began in June 2020.

The proportion of businesses' workforce who are reported to be on furlough leave has fallen from around 20% in late-January 2021 to 7% in late-May 2021, the lowest proportion since the furlough scheme began; this return from furlough corresponds to the highest proportion of the workforce working at their normal place of work, at 62%.

Despite recent improvements in the proportion of businesses trading, many companies were trading below their usual capacity, with 31% of businesses reporting turnover lower than normal; in the arts, entertainment and recreation industry this figure is over 60%.

Businesses closures National data (England and Wales) on company insolvencies suggests that overall the numbers of company and individual insolvencies have remained low since the start of the first UK lockdown in March 2020, when compared with pre-pandemic levels. - potentially as a direct result of government interventions and initiatives to support business.

The number of registered company insolvencies in April 2021 was 925 this was 23% lower than the number registered in the same month in the previous year (1,199 in April 2020), and 35% lower than the number registered two years previously (1,429 in April 2019).

Company insolvencies in England & Wales

1,727 1,508 1,500

1,011 1,000

685

Jan 2019 Jul 2019 Jan 2020 Jul 2020 Jan 2021

1/1 25/06/2021 WSx Headlines West Sussex Headlines

West Sussex headlines Over the last month, April – May 2021, the number of claimants in West Sussex aged 16+ claiming benefits for the principle reason of being out of work fell by 7.5%, a higher fall than for the South East region (6.3%) and nationally (4.8%). The fall in claimants was seen across the county with the highest fall being seen in Mid Sussex, where the numbers fell by 10%. In Crawley which has the highest number of claimants there has been a drop of 8% over the last month. Compared with May 2020, earlier on in the pandemic, claimant count has since fallen significantly in West Sussex with the exception of Crawley which has seen a 9% increase in claimants since May 2020.

The numbers of claimants of Universal Credit have increased slightly between April and May, though Arun and Adur have seen a slight fall over the month Provisional figures for May 2021 show the number of people claiming Universal Credit has risen by 13% over the year from May 2020 with Crawley residents seeing an increase of 28%.

The number of residents furloughed has fallen, in line with the national trends. Crawley continues to have one of the highest furlough take up rates in the country at 16% compared with that for West Sussex at 13%. The scheme is expected to come to an end at the end September.

The latest figures of those claiming the fourth grant for the Self Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS) suggests that in West Sussex 49,600 self-employed individuals were identified as potentially eligible, and that the take up rate, up to 9th May ’21, was 47%, and highest in Crawley at 55%.

New businesses Lockdown in March 2020 had an impact on new business formation in April and May, but since then new business incorporations have increased, and at levels greater than previously – possibly due to new opportunities as a result of COVID e.g. delivery, food services.

Source: FAME Released: May 2021 New business incorporations in West Sussex 778 500 732 627 622 620 616 570 566 565 540 535 498 494 493 464 464 426 405 380 376 364 362 335 317 316

0 9 9 9 9 … 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 … 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 01 01 01 01 0 01 01 01 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 0 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 2 2 2 2 r 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 r 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 y e ly st e er er er ry ry h ril y e ly st e er er er ry ry h ril y a un Ju u b b b a a rc p a un Ju u b b b a a rc p a M J g m tob m m u ru a A M J g m tob m m u ru a A M Au te c e e an b M Au te c e e an b M p O ov ec J Fe p O ov ec J Fe Se N D Se N D

1/1 25/06/2021 Claimant Count Claimant Count, West Sussex

Source: ONS, Claimant Count Released: 15 June 2021 (May 2021 figures are provisional)

Claimant count rate There were 25,220 claimants aged 16+ in West Sussex in May 2021. West Sussex

This is a decrease of -7.5% from the previous month – higher % 5 decrease than either regionally (-6.3%) or nationally (-4.8%). Claimant count amongst males has fallen by a higher rate over 0 the last month than for females. 2010 2015 2020

Crawley has 5,670 claimants and Number of claimants, May 2021 Arun has 4,800 claimants. Crawley has the highest rate at 7.80% 5K 5,670 followed by Adur and Worthing at 4,800 5.5% 3,655 3,175 3,015 2,855 2,055 Crawley has the highest claimant 0K count rate at 7.8% higher than ur n er y m x g d ru st le a se in A A e aw sh us th ch r or S or the regional and national rate hi C H id W C M though the rate has fallen from the previous month. Claimant count by gender Female Male

5,000 5 5 5 5 0 5 5 5 0 5 5 0 7 6 3 2 4 3 5 5 9 8 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 , , 9 , , , 8 9 8 9 9 9 , , , , , , , 3 3 3 3 3 6 2 2 , 2 2 2 2 2 5 2 1 9 , 1 5 0 5 5 5 0 0 5 0 5 5 0 5 6 6 5 5 5 2 9 8 6 5 3 5 9 3 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 , , 7 , , , , , , , , , , , 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 , 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 02 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 ril y e ly st er er er er ry ry h ril y p a un Ju u b b b a a rc p a A M J g m tob m m u ru a A M Au te c e e an b M p O ov ec J Fe Se N D

1/1 25/06/2021 Claimant Count 2 Claimant Count, West Sussex

Source: ONS, Claimant Count Released: 15 June 2021 (May 2021 figures are provisional)

Claimant count rates change The age profile of claimants is broadly similar across the county, March 2020 May 2021 although has the

highest proportion of 16-24 year Adur 2.3 5.5 olds, and the highest Arun 2.4 over 50+. 5.4 Chichester 2.0 4.7 The highest % increase in Crawley 2.8 7.8 claimants are amongst the 16-24 Horsham 1.1 years olds across the county. 3.6 Mid Sussex 1.4 3.2 There are 4,420 claimants aged Worthing 2.5 18-24 in West Sussex, which is a 5.5 West Sussex 2.0 decrease of -8.9% from the 5.0 previous month. This is a higher South East 2.2 4.9 % decrease than regional (-7.0%) England 3.0 and national (-6.1%). 6.1

0 2 4 6 8 Crawley has the highest number Distribution of claimants by age band of claimants in this age group at 940, followed by Arun 760. Within Aged 16-24 Aged 25-34 Aged 35-49 Aged 50-59 Aged 60+ West Sussex, over the last month there was a drop of -9.1% in Adur 19.8% 22.0% 30.7% 19.3% 8.3% claimants amongst males aged Arun 18-24 years, and -8.2% amongst 15.8% 25.7% 28.1% 20.2% 10.1%

females. Chichester 15.6% 23.9% 28.1% 21.2% 11.2%

Crawley 16.8% 25.7% 33.1% 17.0% 7.4%

Horsham 21.1% 24.5% 28.4% 17.1% 9.0%

Mid Sussex 17.5% 24.1% 31.3% 18.5% 8.6%

Worthing 19.3% 24.8% 29.0% 18.4% 8.5%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

1/1 25/06/2021 Universal Credit Universal Credit Claimants, West Sussex

Source: Department for Work and Pensions Released: 15 June 2021 (May 2021 figures are provisional) Percentage of 16-64 year olds on Universal Credit Universal credit claimants continue to rise at a slow rate, for those not in West Sussex South East England employment. For those in employment a gradual decrease in figures are seen from January 2021. Provisional figures 10% for May 2021 continue this trend.

The numbers of people claiming Universal Credit in West Sussex has

increased 135% since March 2020 - from 0% Jan 2020 Jul 2020 Jan 2021 27,355 to 64,244 in May 2021. Crawley has seen the highest % increase (161%). Universal Credit claimants in West Sussex change

Over the year from March 2020 – May March 2020 May 2021 2021, there has been a significant rise in

the number of residents claiming 2 4 6 8 , 8 7

20,000 4

Universal Credit. , 2 5 2 8 9 0

2 2 8 9 0 , 9 7 7 7 5 , , ,

Please note the latest figures are always 1 5 5 5 1 1 1 provisional and they are not broken 0 down by employment/not in ur n er y m x g d ru st le a se in A A e aw sh us th ch r or S or employment. hi C H id W C M

Universal Credit claimants in West Sussex by employment status

In employment N/A Not in employment

50K 37,971 37,626 37,641 35,610 36,554 34,883 33,545 33,937 34,221 33,597 33,826 34,382 64,244 24,775 27,499 27,139 27,005 26,976 26,510 26,497 26,469 26,435 25,434 25,380 0K 24,483 April May June July Aug… Sept… Octo… Nov… Dece… Janu… Febr… March April May 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2021 2021 2021 2021 2021

1/1 25/06/2021 Furlough Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (Furlough), West Sussex

Source: HMRC Released: June 2021

The furlough scheme is set to continue to the end of September, though there will be some changes from 1 July when employers will need to start contributing to the cost of keeping staff furloughed. It is not expected that the furlough scheme will be further extended.

The provisional figures of furloughed as at 30th April show that West Sussex has seen a decrease of 10,900 people furloughed since March which is a decrease of 18%. Adur saw the highest decrease in furloughs with 21% while Crawley had the lowest decrease with 15%. Crawley continues to have the highest take up rate in the county. The latest data includes claims received up to 14th May.

The overall number of furloughs have decreased between March and April across all local authorities with an average decrease of 18%. Crawley is now the 8th highest furloughed district across the South East Region. Adur retains its placement as the lowest number of furloughed workers in the South East Region.

In West Sussex, 52% of those furloughed were women. Chichester remains the highest number of furloughs for woman at 55%. In Crawley and Worthing, the take up rate was the same among men and women. In all other districts, the take up rate was higher among women than for men.

The data is based on the residential address HMRC holds for each employee and doesn’t necessarily reflect the employee’s place of work.

Percentage of West Sussex Location Number furloughed Take-up rate

Adur 3,000 11.3% Arun 8,300 12.4% Chichester 6,400 13.2% Crawley 9,500 16.3% Horsham 7,900 12.3%

Mid Sussex 7,800 11.5% Location Percentage  Worthing 5,300 11.1% Crawley 19.7% West Sussex 48,200 12.7% Arun 17.2% Horsham 16.4% South East 451,500 11.1% Mid Sussex 16.2% England 2,764,900 11.4% Chichester 13.3% Worthing 11.0% Adur 6.2%

1/1 25/06/2021 Furlough 2 Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (Furlough), West Sussex

Source: HMRC Released: June 2021

Furloughed employments in West Sussex are highest in three sectors: wholesale and retail; repair of motor vehicles; transportation and storage’ and accommodation and food services. Across these sectors, the highest furloughs are seen in Arun or Crawley, and because of the presence of Gatwick Airport Crawley has a significantly higher number of furloughs in transportation and storage compared to rest of the county, and the regional and national average.

Top 3 furloughed sectors in West Sussex Top 3 furloughed sectors in England

Accommodation and foo… 12,130 Accommodation and foo… 731,140

Wholesale and retail; rep… 7,930 Wholesale and retail; rep… 479,350

Transportation and stora… 5,490 Administrative and supp… 237,350

0K 10K 0.0M 0.5M

Furloughed sectors in West Sussex Breakdown Adur Arun Chichester Crawley Horsham Mid Sussex Worthing

Accommodation and food services 590 2,740 1,930 2,410 1,600 1,580 1,280 Administrative and support services 260 480 480 1,130 780 800 390 Agriculture, Mining, Energy, Water and 20 70 70 10 60 40 50 waste Arts, entertainment and recreation 210 660 480 370 550 510 540 Construction 190 400 250 250 330 400 180 Education 80 160 220 80 160 250 90 Health and social work 130 350 230 200 210 270 250 Information and communication, 140 350 370 320 360 410 310 Finance and insurance, Real estate Manufacturing 200 500 340 220 340 330 250 Other service activities 190 380 290 230 350 420 280 Professional and scientific and 170 380 440 390 620 580 350 technical Public administration and defence; 30 70 80 90 100 90 50 social security, Households, Unknown and other Transportation and storage 190 400 240 2,310 1,120 940 300 Wholesale and retail; repair of motor 550 1,370 1,010 1,480 1,290 1,200 1,020 vehicles

1/1 25/06/2021 SEISS Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (SEISS), West Sussex

Source: HMRC Released: June 2021

Take-up rate These figures are based on claims up to 9th of May for the grant of SEISS. Compared to the previously recorded month the total take-up rate of West Sussex has increased by an average of 9%. The total number of claims has increased by an average of 600 across the county of West Sussex. The average value of the claims made has not Location Percentage changed since decemeber for the West  Sussex County. Crawley 70% Adur 67% Worthing 65% The data is based on the residential Arun 64% address HMRC holds for each employee Chichester 60% Horsham 59% and doesn’t necessarily reflect the Mid Sussex 59% employee’s place of work.

Take up percentage change from December Location Average value Total no. of Total value of of claims claims made claims made made to to 09/05/21 to Adur 8% 09/05/21(£) 09/05/21(£) Arun 8% Adur 3,100 2,800 8,600,000 Arun 3,000 6,000 18,400,000 Chichester 10% Chichester 3,100 4,600 14,200,000 Crawley 8% Crawley 2,800 4,000 11,100,000 Horsham 9% Horsham 3,100 4,800 15,100,000 Mid Sussex 9% Mid Sussex 3,200 5,000 15,900,000 Worthing 9% Worthing 2,900 4,000 11,600,000 West Sussex 3,000 31,100 94,900,000 West Sussex 8%

South East 3,100 316,000 969,000,000 South East 9%

0% 5% 10%

1/1 25/06/2021 Job Postings Job Postings, West Sussex

Source: EMSI Released: 24 June 2021

EMSI draws together numbers of job postings including description of occupations, sectors, earnings levels where available, down to local authority level.

Unique job postings over time in West Sussex 35K 30,909 32,682 33,690 30K

25K

20K

15K 14,645 10K 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Job postings are continuing to increase with levels in West Sussex in May 2021 at 32,682 being a 7% increase on the previous month, and 10,000 more than at the lowest point a year ago – May 2020. In terms of the ‘top’ posted occupations nurses continue to make up the highest numbers of job postings, with care workers and home carers the second highest. Programmers and software development professionals are also in demand.

Unique job postings over the last 30 days in West Sussex

2020 2021

24K

22K

20K

18K

16K 28 29 30 31 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 May June

1/1 25/06/2021 Mobility Google Mobility, West Sussex

Source: Google Released: 20 June 2021

These datasets show how visits and length of stay at different places change compared to a baseline. Changes for each day are compared to a baseline value for that day of the week: the median value, for the corresponding day of the week, during the 5- week period Jan 3–Feb 6, 2020.

Grocery & pharmacy Parks Mobility trends for places like grocery Mobility trends for places like local parks, markets, food warehouses, farmers 3% national parks, public beaches, marinas, 14% markets, specialty food shops, drug stores, dog parks, plazas, and public gardens. and pharmacies.

Transit stations Retail & recreation Mobility trends for places like public Mobility trends for places like restaurants, transport hubs such as subway, bus, and -60% cafes, shopping centers, theme parks, -22% train stations. museums, libraries, and movie theaters.

Residential Workplaces Mobility trends for places of residence. 9% Mobility trends for places of work. -29%

Grocery and Pharmacy Parks Residential Retail and Recreation Transit Stations Workplaces

200%

100%

0%

-100%

-200% Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021

1/1 25/06/2021 Grants Local authority grants to businesses affected by lockdown

Source: Gov.uk, Coronavirus Grant Funding Released: June 2021 Grants Summary

Local Authority grant Description Total grant Total grant Percentage of payments to amount paid amount paid to initial allocation businesses to WSx local businesses by WSx paid to

 authorities local authorities businesses

Additional Restrictions Businesses financially impacted by £24,954,379 £20,841,498 84% Support Grant the pandemic and not eligible for other grants. All sectors. Currently open.

Christmas Support Also known as Wet-Led Pubs Grant. £345,600 £263,000 76% Payment A one-off grant for any wet-led pub with less than 50% income from food. Closed 28 February 2021.

Local Authority Businesses financially impacted due £8,377,000 £8,262,250 99% Discretionary Funding to coronavirus that are not eligible for the SBGF or the RHLGF. Grants received by 30 September 2020 and the scheme is closed.

Local Restrictions Businesses made to close due to £105,849,594 £59,788,966 56% Support (closed either the November or January businesses) national lockdowns, or previous tier restrictions. All sectors. Currently open.

Local Restrictions Businesses that were still open but £2,841,327 £619,840 22% Support (open were financially impacted due to businesses) Tier 2 restrictions in the 2 weeks from 2 December 2020. Priority sectors: Leisure, Hospitality, Hotels, Bed and Breakfast. Currently closed.

Small Business Grants SBGF - businesses in receipt of £188,742,000 £165,960,000 88% Fund (SBGF) and either Small Business Rates Relief Retail, Hospitality and (SBRR) or Rural Rates Relief (RRR). Leisure Business RHLGF - businesses in receipt of the Grants Fund (RHLGF) Expanded Retail Discount with a rateable value of less than £51,000. Grants were received by 30 September 2020 and the scheme is closed Total £331,109,900 £255,735,554 77%

1/1 25/06/2021 LRSG/Xmas Grants Local Restrictions Support Grant & Christmas Support Payment

Source: Gov.uk, Coronavirus Grant Funding Released: June 2021

Payments to local authorities

Local Authority Local Restrictions Local Restrictions Support Christmas Total Support Grant Grant (Closed) payments Support (Open) payments upto 28 March Payment upto 28 March

Adur District Council £102,416 £5,855,140 £25,600 £5,983,157 Council £506,840 £19,224,958 £51,200 £19,782,999 Council £831,461 £22,003,839 £83,200 £22,918,500 Crawley Borough Council £291,960 £11,054,071 £25,600 £11,371,631 Council £455,859 £15,197,456 £70,400 £15,723,715 Council £418,568 £16,467,377 £57,600 £16,943,545 Worthing Borough Council £234,221 £16,046,754 £32,000 £16,312,975 Total £2,841,327 £105,849,594 £345,600 £109,036,521

Payments by local authorities

Grant Christmas Support Payment Local Restrictions Support Local Restrictions Support Grant (Closed) Grant (Open) Local Authority Name Number of Value of Number of Value of Number of Value of

grants paid grants paid grants paid grants paid grants paid grants paid

Adur District Council 22 £22,000 1,548 £3,656,618 10 £10,404 Arun District Council 51 £51,000 3,432 £10,298,915 118 £114,791 Chichester District Council 50 £50,000 4,617 £12,391,547 117 £127,853 Crawley Borough Council 12 £12,000 1,541 £4,964,913 53 £64,009 Horsham District Council 55 £55,000 2,946 £9,872,819 107 £164,813 Mid Sussex District Council 30 £30,000 3,009 £9,019,351 185 £103,756 Worthing Borough Council 43 £43,000 3,935 £9,584,803 30 £34,215 Total 263 £263,000 21,028 £59,788,966 620 £619,840

1/1 25/06/2021 ASR Grant Additional Restrictions Support Grant

Source: Gov.uk, Coronavirus Grant Funding Released: June 2021

Payments to local authorities

Local Authority Additional Restrictions Grant payments upto 28 March

Adur District Council £1,857,209 Arun District Council £4,643,182 Chichester District Council £3,498,575 Crawley Borough Council £3,246,715 Horsham District Council £4,153,123 Mid Sussex District Council £4,361,976 Worthing Borough Council £3,193,599 Total £24,954,379

Payments by local authorities

Local Authority Name Number of grants paid (As Value of grants paid (As reported on 25 April) reported on 25 April)

Adur District Council 532 £1,669,400 Arun District Council 1,028 £3,489,871 Chichester District Council 1,522 £3,519,486 Crawley Borough Council 1,997 £2,590,403 Horsham District Council 662 £2,096,010 Mid Sussex District Council 1,263 £4,361,976 Worthing Borough Council 910 £3,114,352 Total 7,914 £20,841,498

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