25/06/2021 Title Impact of COVID-19 on the West Sussex Economy ‘Snapshot’ Monthly Report June 2021 (Issue 13) West Sussex County Council This is a monthly ‘snapshot’ on the impact of Covid-19 on the West Sussex economy, produced by the County Council’s Insight and Economy teams with contributions from partners. The data presented here is publicly available and any analysis provided is for information purposes only. The latest COVID-19 figures relating to West Sussex are available on the county dashboard. Previous reports can be found on the Business West Sussex website. If you have any questions relating to the information in this report, please email [email protected] or [email protected] 1/1 25/06/2021 Current measures Current lockdown measures and key economic headlines What are the rules in England now? England is currently in Step 3 of roadmap out of lockdown, with the Government extending this step until 19 July, subject to review. A few restrictions have eased: The number of guests at a wedding is no longer limited to 30 Care home residents do not necessarily have to self-isolate if they go on a trip out of the home Children can go on overnight trips in groups of 30 Large events pilots will also continue, including more Euro 2020 games. There has been some easing of international travel, which will take effect from 4pm on Wednesday 30 June, with new countries being added to a 'green watchlist' meaning that they are at risk of moving to the amber list. These traffic light decisions are reviewed every three weeks. The UK government says you should not holiday in amber and red countries. If you do, quarantine rules apply and there are Covid tests before and after you return. Ministers still have to consider the findings of reviews on face coverings and social distancing before deciding when all limits could be lifted. Recent economic reports Institute for Employment Studies A monthly briefing note that reports on the latest national labour market trends (Labour Market Statistics, June 2021) IES Briefing June 2021 Centre for Cities A research and policy institute dedicated to improving the economic success of UK Cities and large towns (which includes Worthing and Crawley in West Sussex) ‘So you want to level up?’ ‘An uneven recovery? How Covid-debt and Covid-saving will shape post-pandemic cities Reporting on Coronavirus cases 1/1 25/06/2021 GDP Gross Domestic Product (GDP), UK Source: ONS, GDP Monthly Estimate Released: 11 June 2021 UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 2.3% in April 2021, the fastest monthly growth since July 2020, as government restrictions affecting economic activity continued to ease. The service sector grew by 3.4% in April 2021, with consumer-facing services re-opening in line with the easing of coronavirus restrictions and more pupils returning to onsite lessons. Retail sales volumes grew sharply in April 2021 reflecting the reopening of all non-essential retail from 12 April in England and Wales. Output in the production sector fell by 1.3% in April 2021, the first fall since January 2021 as three of the four sectors contracted. The largest contribution to the fall in manufacturing came from the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and preparations, and the manufacture of transport equipment. Within production, mining and quarrying output contracted sharply, by 15.0%, in April 2021 because of planned temporary closures for maintenance of oil field production sites. The construction sector contracted by 2.0% in April 2021 following a strong March, with new work slowing down faster than repair and maintenance. April’s GDP remains 3.7% below the pre-pandemic levels seen in February 2020, however it is now 1.2% above its initial recovery peak in October 2020. Monthly index, UK 2018=100 100 101.9 97.5 90 87.8 80 76.4 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 1/1 25/06/2021 Labour Market Labour Market, UK Source: ONS, Earning and Employment from Pay As You Earn Released: 15 June 2021 Early estimates for May 2021 indicate that the number of payrolled employees rose by 0.5% compared with May 2020, which is a rise of 141,000 employees; the number of payrolled employees is down by 1.9% since February 2020, a fall of 553,000. In May 2021, 197,000 more people were in payrolled employment when compared with April 2021. Early estimates for May 2021 indicate that median monthly pay increased by 9.1%, compared with May 2020 and median pay increased by 5.6% when compared with February 2020. Payrolled employees, seasonally adjusted, UK 29.1M 29M 28.9M 28.5M 28M 27M 26.8M 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 1/1 25/06/2021 Businesses Businesses, UK Source: ONS, Business insights and impact on the UK economy and Gov.uk, Monthly Insolvency Statistics Released: 17 June 2021 and April 2021 Businesses currently trading The percentage of UK businesses currently trading has remained consistent from late May 2021 to early June 2021, at 87%, the joint highest percentage of businesses currently trading since comparable estimates began in June 2020. The proportion of businesses' workforce who are reported to be on furlough leave has fallen from around 20% in late-January 2021 to 7% in late-May 2021, the lowest proportion since the furlough scheme began; this return from furlough corresponds to the highest proportion of the workforce working at their normal place of work, at 62%. Despite recent improvements in the proportion of businesses trading, many companies were trading below their usual capacity, with 31% of businesses reporting turnover lower than normal; in the arts, entertainment and recreation industry this figure is over 60%. Businesses closures National data (England and Wales) on company insolvencies suggests that overall the numbers of company and individual insolvencies have remained low since the start of the first UK lockdown in March 2020, when compared with pre-pandemic levels. - potentially as a direct result of government interventions and initiatives to support business. The number of registered company insolvencies in April 2021 was 925 this was 23% lower than the number registered in the same month in the previous year (1,199 in April 2020), and 35% lower than the number registered two years previously (1,429 in April 2019). Company insolvencies in England & Wales 1,727 1,508 1,500 1,011 1,000 685 Jan 2019 Jul 2019 Jan 2020 Jul 2020 Jan 2021 1/1 25/06/2021 W est Sussex Headlines W est Sussex headlines Over the last month, April – May 2021, the number of claimants in W reason of being out of work fell by 7.5%, a higher fall than for the South East region (6.3%) and nationally (4.8%). The fall in claimants was seen across the county with the highest fall being seen in Mid Sussex, where the numbers fell by 10%. In Crawley which has the highest number of claimants there has been a drop of 8% over the last month. Compared with May 2020, earlier on in the pandemic, claimant count has since fallen significantly in W WSx Headlines 9% increase in claimants since May 2020. The numbers of claimants of Universal Credit have increased slightly between April and May, though Arun and Adur have seen a slight fall over the month Provisional figures for May 2021 show the number of people claiming Universal Credit has risen by 13% over the year from May 2020 with Crawley residents seeing an increase of 28%. The number of residents furloughed has fallen, in line with the national trends. Crawley continues to haveest Sussex one of aged the highest 16+ claiming benefits for the principle furlough take up rates in the country at 16% compared with that for W end at the end September. The latest figures of those claiming the fourth grant for the Self Employment Income Support Scheme est(SEISS) Sussex suggests with the that exception in of Crawley which has seen a W est Sussex 49,600 self-employed individuals were identified as potentially eligible, and that the take up rate, up to 9th May ’21, was 47%, and highest in Crawley at 55%. New businesses Lockdown in March 2020 had an impact on new business formation in April and May, but since then new business incorporations have increased, and at levels greater than previously – possibly due to new opportunities as a result of C delivery, food services. Source: F est Sussex at 13%. The scheme is expected to come to an R eleased: MayAME 2021 N ew bu si ne ss i 50 nc 0 or po ra ti on s in 0 362 W es t May 2019 317 Su 335 s June 2019 se 316 x July 2019 376 493 August 2019 September 20… 405 October 2019 380 464 November 2019 426 December 2019 498 778 O January 2020 VID e.g. February 2020 364 464 March 2020 620 April 2020 May 2020 535 627 June 2020 622 July 2020 August 2020 540 September 20… 494 565 October 2020 616 732 November 2020 December 2020 566 January 2021 570 February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 1 /1 25/06/2021 Claimant Count, W Source: R eleased: 15ONS, June Claimant 2021 (May Count 2021 figures are provisional) est Sussex There were 25,220 claimants aged 16+ in W est Sussex in May 2021. Claimant Count This is a decrease of -7.5% from the previous month – higher % decrease than either regionally (-6.3%) or nationally (-4.8%).