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PERFORMANCE EVALUATION in the NFL: a STUDY of PROFESSIONAL QUARTERBACKS a THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the Department of E

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PERFORMANCE EVALUATION in the NFL: a STUDY of PROFESSIONAL QUARTERBACKS a THESIS Presented to the Faculty of the Department of E PERFORMANCE EVALUATION IN THE NFL: A STUDY OF PROFESSIONAL QUARTERBACKS A THESIS Presented to The Faculty of the Department of Economics and Business The Colorado College In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Bachelor of Arts By Tyler Warren Fox May/2008 PERFORMANCE EVALUATION IN THE NFL: A STUDY OF PROFESSIONAL QUARTERBACKS Tyler Warren Fox May, 2008 Mathematical Economics Abstract Previous research has shown the difficulty and inconsistency in drafting new talent into professional sports leagues, especially at the quarterback position in the NFL. This study attempts to determine what makes quarterbacks successful at the professional level and how to find these athletes in the NFL draft. The abundance of data in the NFL makes this investigation aptly suited for econometric analysis. This study incorporates a systems model to test the player, team, and coach specific variables that influence quarterback success. The implications of this research are valuable to NFL executives as they try to build a successful team around the quarterback position. KEYWORDS: (National Football League, Performance Evaluation, Quarterbacks) ON MY HONOR, I HA VE NEITHER GIVEN NOR RECEIVED UNAUTHORIZED AID ON THIS THESIS TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .. '" .. .. .. ......... .. .. .. .. ..... .. ..... .. .. .. .. .. .. ... .. ........... 11 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................. , ............... '" .............. , . .. IX I INTRODUCTION ....... '" ............................ " ............. '" ............ " . ... 1 II LITERATURE REVIEW .............. " ........... , ... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .......... 3 Incentives for Success..................................................................... 4 Managerial Quality......................................................................... 6 Ability to Find Talent. .. 8 The NFL Draft.............................................................................. 11 The NFL Combine .................................................................... " . .. 15 Non-NFL Scholarly Literature............................................................ 16 Conclusion ........................................................................ , .... " . ... 19 III THEORy................................................................................ .... 20 Quarterback Success as a Production Function........................................ 20 Output Optimization and Deriving Demand.. .. ...... .. .. .. .. .. ... .. ... .. ..... 22 Theoretical Determinants of NFL QB Success........................................ 23 NFL Draft....... ...... ............. ........ .... .......................... ......... ..... 24 Physical Attributes............................................................ 25 Character.................................................................... .... 26 Intelligence..................................................................... 27 College Success..................................... ............ ............... 27 NFL Quarterback Success........................................................... 30 Coach............................................................................ 31 Age.............................................................................. 32 Rank of Opposing Defense..... .................... .... ................. .... 32 Rank of Team Defense.. ......... ............................................ 33 Rank of Team Offense.................................. .... ................. 34 Offensive System............................................................ 35 NFL Perfonnance Measures.. ...... .................... ...... ... ...... .... 35 Conclusion ................................ " . .. .. .. .. ... .. ........ .. .... 36 IV DATA AND METHODOLOGy......................................................... 38 Data and Sources. 38 Dependent Variables....................................................................... 40 Equations. 41 Independent V ariab 1es. 41 Player Specific Variables........................................................... 42 Coach Specific Variables........................................................... 44 College Player Specific Variables................................................. 44 Team Specific Variables..................................................... ........ 46 Methodology.. ...... ...... ................. ............ ............................ ... ...... 47 Estimation Procedure...................................................................... 48 V RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS...................................................... 51 Two-Stage Least Squares Regression................................................... 51 Econometric Issues........................................................................ 53 The Coefficients........................................................................... 56 Fit of the ModeL.......................................................................... 60 Conclusions ............................................ " ....... , .................... " . ... 60 Future Research........................................................................... 61 Implications................................................................................ 63 APPENDIX. .. .. ... ... ........... ... ........ .. ... .. ..... .. .. ..... .. ... .. .. ......... 64 SOURCES CONSULTED..................................................................... 70 LIST OF TABLES 4.1 Variable Definitions and Descriptive Statistics.................................... 48 4.2 Two-Stage Least Squares Instrumental Variables and Description. .. .. ..... 49 5.1 Two-Stage Least Squares Regression Results..................................... 52 5.2 Two-tailed Serial Correlation Test.................................................. 55 LIST OF FIGURES 2.1 NFL Scholarly Literature ... , ........ , ..................................... " . .. .... .... 5 3.1 Detenninants of NFL Quarterback Success...................................... ... 24 3.2 Physical Make-Up........ ........................................................... .... 25 3.3 Collegiate Success............................................................... 28 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to thank Professor Aju Fenn for his effort and advice throughout the entire process of senior thesis. Professor Fenn made my thesis experience productive and enjoyable, and continually pushed for new avenues of research. I would like to thank Robin Satterwhite as well for her assistance with formatting, citations, and research. CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION In the 2004 National Football League (NFL) draft, Eli Manning and Philip Rivers were the first two quarterbacks selected, with the first and fourth picks, respectively. I Both players have made playoff appearances in their short careers, and Eli Manning already has a Super Bowl ring. It seems that these two quarterbacks are on a track for success. However, not all drafts have been this successful, with highly-touted college quarterbacks being busts in the NFL. Ryan Leaf, a great college player out of Washington State, is now synonymous with bust in the football world. These two examples demonstrate the amount of inconsistency in the draft, making the ability to find talent all that more important, especially at the quarterback position. Eleven players comprise an offensive unit in the NFL, yet none are deemed more important than the quarterback. He is credited for victories when the team wins, yet scrutinized on a national level when the team losses. The fate of a team lies in the hands of the quarterback, and with this responsibility comes great rewards and heavy burdens. Optimization of quarterback success has long been a key concept for successful teams at the college and professional levels. Greatness and success occurs when a player produces in important situations and continually leads his team to victories. How he does this, however, varies from player to player based on their individual skill set and surrounding I "NFL Drafts," Available from http://www.nfl.comldraftlhistory. 1 2 players. Because generating wins is a team concept, the quarterback's role is different depending on who he plays with and what abilities he brings to the field. There is no perfect model for finding great quarterbacks, but the goal is to get closer to a model that can predict success at the professional level. A great quarterback is essential because winning matters in the NFL on financial, social, and psychological levels. Winning 2 games has positive social externalities for cities, fans, players, and coaches. It also determines the tenure of head coaches and players' individual contracts.3 This paper will attempt to generate a quarterback success model based on the theory of the firm production function. Since several inputs, namely quarterback performance measures, go into final quarterback success or output, this is a logical connection between economic optimization and football production. This paper will proceed as follows. The second chapter will discuss past and current research in the field of performance evaluation in sports. This review will bring the reader up to date on the literature relating to professional drafts, player production, and win optimization. Chapter three will present and discuss production theory as it pertains to firms and the NFL. The fourth chapter will explain the data set and the empirical methodology used to test the theoretical model. The final chapter will report
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