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TV Network Loyalty Survey

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TV Network Loyalty Survey Equity Research Industry Note October 2, 2013 Industry Update Media: Entertainment Barton Crockett 212-632-6625 3rd LCM network loyalty survey reaffirms content [email protected] leverage over distribution William Bird, CFA 212-632-6440 Highlights: Working with online survey specialist Clear Voice [email protected] Research, LLC, we've completed our third TV Network Loyalty Howard Ma Index, gauging networks' leverage to extract retransmission and 212-632-6012 affiliate fees from pay TV providers. Like before, we measure this [email protected] by asking over 2,000 consumers if they would cancel or switch Thomas Le, CFA 212-632-6852 pay TV providers if a network were dropped. Once again, we find [email protected] that content has sizable leverage. Average cancel intent across the group was little changed at 19%, with broadcast networks Companies Mentioned near or above 40%. ESPN at 33%, Discovery at 28%. We added Ticker Price Rating Price Target regional sports and premium networks to the survey and found CBS $55.76 BUY $61.00 they garner loyalty comparable to or higher than ESPN. DIS $64.83 BUY $76.00 ■ While strong, seasonality lowered loyalty. We conducted DISCA $83.23 BUY $110.00 the survey over the week leading into Labor Day, a seasonally FOXA $33.98 BUY $42.00 slow period for TV that was further impacted by a high profile STRZA $29.02 NEUTRAL NM blackout of CBS-owned TV stations on Time Warner Cable. TWX $66.68 BUY $75.00 Yet average cancel intent across the group was little changed, 19% this time, vs. 20% in December 2012 and 19% in May VIAB $84.33 BUY $101.00 2012. Respondents were similar to national averages in key demographic categories. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 2%. ■ Broadcast, ESPN and Discovery retain loyalty leads. Broadcast networks retained their loyalty lead, topped by CBS at 44%, followed by NBC, ABC and Fox at 43%, 42%, and 37%, respectively. Average loyalty for RSNs was on par with ESPN's 33%. Premium nets garnered an average 38% cancel intent, but since only 33% on average subscribe, weighted average loyalty was 13%, topped by HBO at 17%. ■ Football bolstered CBS' leverage over Time Warner Cable. We asked Time Warner Cable subscribers if they would cancel or switch because of the CBS blackout, and 44% said they had or would, with 41% of those potential cancellers saying they would act if the blackout lasted into the start of the NFL season. So we don't think it's a coincidence that the dispute was settled right before NFL started on CBS. ■ Program fee shift potential. While this is more a theoretical exercise than a statement of what's likely to happen, if affiliate and retransmission fees were allocated according to loyalty as tallied here, Discovery's fees could more than triple while Disney's could fall over 50%. SEE PAGES 24-25 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION Effective May 10, 2005, Lazard Frères & Co. LLC ("LF&Co.") transferred its capital markets business (which includes equity research, syndicate, sales and trading) to a new privately-held company, Lazard Capital Markets LLC, which is neither owned nor controlled by LF&Co. LF&Co., which is part of publicly-traded Lazard Ltd, has retained, among other things, its investment banking business (including its mergers and acquisitions and financial restructuring practices). SURVEY SAYS THE POWER OF CONTENT IS GROWING For the third time, we have used Clear Voice Research LLC for an online survey of over 2,000 consumers to gauge loyalty to TV networks, and the leverage that network owners have to extract more fees from cable and satellite TV distributors. In all three surveys, we presented consumers with a list of 53 basic cable and broadcast networks, and asked, “If this network were dropped by your pay-TV service, would you cancel or switch providers?” On top of that, in this survey for the first time, we also queried consumers about loyalty to 35 leading regional sports networks (RSNs) and the three leading premium networks, HBO, Showtime and Starz. Survey respondents were broadly similar to U.S. averages in income, age, sex, race and geographic dispersion (Exhibit 22). This survey was carried out from August 24- 29, while the second one was conducted from December 18-31, 2012 and the first one was done from May 15-22, 2012. Average cancel intent across all networks of 19% was a tad lower in this survey than the 20% average in December, but on par with the 19% in May. We are in the early stages of repeating this survey, and believe the variance could be tied to seasonality. People were less interested in TV in late August as they start back to school or wind up their summer vacations, and the new fall shows had not yet started, nor had the NFL and college football. The encouraging point for content owners is that many Americans say they would cancel or switch TV service providers if a network were dropped. We believe it’s hard for a cable or satellite TV service provider to absorb a potential loss of 19% of their subs, given substantial fixed costs. This, we believe, leaves them little ability to stop the current trend of high single-digit growth in content costs. Pain for cable and satellite TV in this instance is a gain for content, supportive of our positive stance on CBS, Viacom, Discovery, Disney, 21st Century Fox and Time Warner, all of which are covered by Lazard Capital Markets with BUY ratings. TV NETWORK LOYALTY INDEX In Exhibit 1, we show the cancel or switch responses for this survey, compared to the other two. We find it notable that the relative ranking of networks was little changed. The results do suggest seasonality, and that Americans like TV more in December, as the Super Bowl approaches and the NFL moves towards playoffs, than at other times of the year. Entertainment 2 Exhibit 1. TV Network Loyalty Index % of respondents that would cancel or switch if network dropped (Aug 2013 vs Dec 2012 vs May 2012) 44% CBS TV station NBC TV station 43% ABC TV station 42% FOX TV station 37% ESPN 33% RSNs Average 33% Discovery Channel 28% History Channel 27% TNT 27% A&E Network 26% AMC 26% Food Network 24% USA 23% TBS 22% Syfy 21% 21% National Geographic Channel Fox News Channel 21% FX 21% Comedy Central 20% 19% The Weather Channel HGTV 19% Lifetime 19% Fox Soccer Channel 18% Animal Planet 18% Disney Channel 18% CNN 17% HBO 17% Aug 2013 17% TruTV Dec 2012 TLC 17% Nickelodeon 17% May 2012 ABC Family 17% Travel Channel 16% Cartoon Network/Adult Swim 16% CW TV station 16% TV Land 15% Investigation Discovery 15% Hallmark Channel 15% Science Channel 15% Bravo 15% 14% MSNBC E! Entertainment TV 13% Showtime 13% Aug. 2013 Avg, 19% MTV 13% 12% Nick Jr. 12% Spike Biography 12% OWN 12% VH1 12% 11% CNBC 11% BET Military Channel 11% The HUB 10% Oxygen 10% WeTv 10% Sprout 10% CMT "Get Country" 9% Starz 9% 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 Source: Lazard Capital Markets, Clear Voice Research LLC. Entertainment 3 In Exhibit 2, we highlight the change in loyalty by network. The network with the largest gain was Fox Soccer Channel (rebranded to FXX on September 2, after the completion of our survey), up 8% to 18%. That could be correlated to the start of the English Premier League on August 17, shortly before our survey was conducted. Otherwise, we observed modest loyalty declines (average of 1%) at nearly every network, to levels observed in May 2012. The largest declines, of 300 bps to 400 bps, were at the broadcast networks. Exhibit 2. TV Network Loyalty Index Change from December 2012 to August 2013 Change % of respondents that would cancel or switch if network dropped (from Dec 2012 to Aug 2013) Fox Soccer Channel 8% CW TV station 1% OWN 0% A&E Network 0% The HUB 0% Fox News Channel 0% Food Network 0% Animal Planet 0% CMT "Get Country" -1% Travel Channel -1% Military Channel -1% National Geographic Channel -1% AMC -1% Lifetime -1% Comedy Central -1% Investigation Discovery -1% Science Channel -1% Avg. -1% HGTV -1% E! Entertainment TV -1% ESPN -1% Syfy -1% TruTV -1% Biography -1% WeTv -1% CNN -1% Cartoon Network/Adult Swim -1% History Channel -2% Discovery Channel -2% MSNBC -2% TV Land -2% Oxygen -2% Sprout -2% The Weather Channel -2% TNT -2% Disney Channel -2% MTV -2% VH1 -2% CNBC -2% Bravo -2% FX -2% ABC Family -3% ABC TV station -3% Nick Jr. -3% TLC -3% Hallmark Channel -3% USA -3% Nickelodeon -3% Spike -3% BET -3% TBS -3% NBC TV station -3% FOX TV station -4% CBS TV station -4% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Lazard Capital Markets, Clear Voice Research LLC. Entertainment 4 TV NETWORK LOYALTY INDEX - RSNS In Exhibit 3, we show the willingness to cancel or switch responses for 35 leading regional sports networks (RSNs) and the average rate, which was 33%. Exhibit 3. TV Network Loyalty Index – Regional Sports Networks (RSNs) % cancel or switch if network dropped Comcast SportsNet Chicago 47% Comcast SportsNet Bay Area 42% New England Sports Network 42% FOX Sports Southwest 41% SportsTime Ohio 40% FOX Sports Detroit 40% Comcast SportsNet Houston 39% Comcast SportsNet Philadelphia 39% Prime Ticket 39% FOX Sports Wisconsin 37% FOX Sports Ohio 37% FOX Sports Arizona 36% Sun Sports 36% Comcast SportsNet New England 35% Comcast SportsNet Northwest 35% YES Network 34% FOX Sports Midwest 34% FOX Sports West 33% Avg.
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