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Over the Weekend, Federal Candidates Submitted Their Second Quarter Reports to the FEC

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Over the Weekend, Federal Candidates Submitted Their Second Quarter Reports to the FEC 1891 N. Gaffey Street Suite 224 San Pedro, CA 90731 (310) 547-3715 www.californiatargetbook.com Over the weekend, federal candidates submitted their second quarter reports to the FEC. In the aftermath of the campaign finance disclosures, the state of play in a number of California’s contested races has begun to crystallize. CA01 (R-LaMalfa) Four Democrats are hoping to unseat incumbent Republican LaMalfa from his safely Republican district. While LaMalfa’s fundraising has been tepid, none of the candidates challenging him have exhibited any significant prowess in that area as of yet. Doug LaMalfa (R-Inc): Q1 - $42,808, Q2 - $79,205, COH - $112,606 Marty Walters (D): Q2 - $6,392, COH - $4,905 Jessica Holcombe (D): Q2 - $5,451, COH - $4,248 Dennis Duncan (D): Q1 - $530, Q2 - $1,601, COH - $597 Brandon Storment (D): Q2 - $0, COH $0 CA04 (R-McClintock) Three Democrats and one Republican were active during the second quarter in their quest to unseat incumbent Tom McClintock from his safely Republican district. MIT Political Science Professor Regina Bateson holds the pole position among his Democratic challengers, while geographer Roza Calderon is closely behind with the aid of a $55,000 loan from the candidate. Tom McClintock (R-Inc): Q1 - $128,463, Q2 - $144,632, COH - $302,231 Regina Bateson (D): Q2 - $94,793, COH - $85,480 Roza Calderon (D): Q2 - $65,160, COH - $57,655 Rochelle Lyn Wilcox (D): Q2 - $100, COH - $100 CA07 (D-Bera) – NRCC Target Perennial GOP target Ami Bera posted two consecutive $318,000 fundraising quarters, while Omba Kipuke, the lone Republican who had filed during the second quarter has yet to submit a campaign finance statement. Northern California World Trade Center CEO Andrew Grand entered the race in July and is likely the only credible GOP challenger in the race at this time. Ami Bera (D-Inc): Q1 - $318,792, Q2 - $318,174, COH - $617,852 CA10 (R-Denham) – DCCC Target No fewer than seven Democrats and one independent have filed to take on incumbent Republican Jeff Denham, who is among the DCCC’s top targets in 2018 after his district went for Hillary Clinton by 2.9%. Denham’s fundraising has been robust, but Bessemer Venture Partners VP Josh Harder was competitive in the second quarter, and former 2006 candidate TJ Cox, who committed $500,000 during his previous run, filed in July and is likely best positioned to give Harder a run for his money. Jeff Denham (R-Inc): Q1 - $361,446, Q2 - $498,237, COH - $1,045,424 Josh Harder (D): Q2 - $403,590, COH - $374,972 Dotty Nygard (D): Q2 - $15,120, COH - $14,503 Lisa Battista (D): Q2 - $7,028, COH - $5,188 Mike Barkley (D): Q1 - $35,895, Q2 $670, COH - $255 Seth Vaughn (D): Q2 - $823, COH - $480 Terra Eva Snover (Ind): Q1 - $500, Q2 - $300, COH - $462 Mateo Morelos Bedolla (D): Q2 - $114, COH - $101 CA21 (R-Valadao) – DCCC Target This is a competitive district that Hillary Clinton carried by over 15% in 2016, and the DCCC has placed this district on their initial 2018 target list. Emilio Huerta, Valadao's 2016 opponent, has filed for a second attempt in 2018. David Valadao (R-Inc): Q1 - $414,168, Q2 - $339,141, COH - $565,900 Emilio Huerta (D): Q1 - $29, Q2 - $35,828, COH - $110,584 CA22 (R-Nunes) – DCCC Target After incumbent Republican Devin Nunes courted controversy during the House Intelligence Committee’s Russia investigation, the DCCC added CA22 to their target list in May, and three Democrats have filed with the FEC to challenge Nunes, who possesses the single largest war chest for any California incumbent. Despite being the sole Democrat in the race in the second quarter against the GOP lightning rod, prosecutor Andrew Janz reported an uninspiring haul. Devin Nunes (R-Inc): Q1 - $362,983, Q2 - $479,522, COH - $3,496,129 Andrew Janz (D): Q2 - $85,616, COH - $40,840 Page 2 CA24 (D-Carbajal) – NRCC Target Freshman incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal will be up for re-election in 2018, and the NRCC has placed CA24 on its initial target list. Carbajal has been raising funds at a brisk clip, and while one Republican has filed, he is unlikely to wage a credible effort and the GOP will likely try to seek out a stronger candidate. Salud Carbajal (D-Inc): Q1 - $567,696, Q2 - $418,364, COH - $867,688 Michael Erin Woody (R): Q2 - $5,000, COH - $4,274 CA25 (R-Knight) – DCCC Target This is a competitive district that Hillary Clinton carried by over 6% in 2016, and the DCCC has placed this district on their initial 2018 target list. Five Democratic challengers, including Bryan Caforio, Knight's DCCC-backed 2016 opponent, have filed statements of candidacy with the FEC, although only three have reported any fundraising activity. The DCCC establishment candidate vs progressive insurgent dynamic that created an issue in the 2016 campaign looks set to resurface in 2018, although Katie Hill, filling the progressive role this cycle, is better positioned to make it a competitive effort with Caforio. Steve Knight (R-Inc): Q1 - $180,047, Q2 - $256,328, COH - $433,301 Bryan Caforio (D): Q1 - $2,494, Q2 - $223,019, COH - $175,635 Katie Hill (D): Q1 - $52,527, Q2 - $168,408, COH - $173,299 Jess Phoenix (D): Q2 - $77,001, COH - $51,658 CA26 (D-Brownley) Incumbent Democrat Julia Brownley will be up for re-election in her increasingly safe Democratic district, although three Republicans, including actor Antonio Sabato, Jr., have filed in a bid to unseat her. Despite going into the race with the highest name ID, Sabato reported dismal fundraising numbers in the second quarter, contributing just $300 to his own campaign. Julia Brownley (D-Inc): Q1 - $272,171, Q2 - $337,381, COH - $2,128,623 Shane Skelton (R): Q2 - $59,645, COH - $49,074 Antonio Sabato, Jr. (R): Q2 - $14,343, COH - $13,476 Rafael Dagnesses (R): Q2 - $1,057, COH - $304 Page 3 CA28 (D-Schiff) Incumbent Democrat Adam Schiff will be up for re-election in 2018.While one Republican challenger has filed, he has yet to submit a campaign finance statement and is unlikely to mount a credible effort. The dramatic spike in Schiff’s fundraising during the second quarter, one that is far and away his highest in recent memory, presages a run in a competitive race, and will likely do little to tamp down on speculation about an imminent Dianne Feinstein retirement. Adam Schiff (D-Inc): Q1 - $121,274, Q2 - $719,066, COH - $2,573,388 CA31 (D-Aguilar) Incumbent Democrat Pete Aguilar will be up for re-election in 2018. 'Economics for Dummies' author Sean Flynn, a Republican who previously ran in the 2016 primary and committed nearly half a million of his own money to his campaign in that attempt, has filed once again for 2018 now that the GOP 2014 and 2016 general election challenger Paul Chabot has decamped to Texas. Pete Aguilar (D-Inc): Q1 - $513,149, Q2 - $363,440, COH - $1,567,167 Sean Masaki Flynn (R): Q2 - $130,454, COH - $76,700 CA36 (D-Ruiz) – NRCC Target While the NRCC has placed CA36 on its 2018 target list, no Republican candidate has filed as of yet, while Ruiz has been raising money at a brisk clip throughout the year and building up a significant war chest to take on all comers. Raul Ruiz (D-Inc): Q1 - $525,355, Q2 - $436,674, COH - $1,596,549 CA39 (R-Royce) – DCCC Target This one time safely Republican district has been drifting into marginal territory, and that was apparent when Hillary Clinton trounced Donald Trump by over 8.5% in 2016, a fact that contributed to the DCCC placing CA39 on their initial 2018 target list. Two Democrats and one No Party Preference Berniecrat filed during the second quarter, although the post-Q2 addition of lottery winner Gil Cisneros, who will be in a position to self-fund, and former Tesla regulatory counsel and Rep. Cardenas Chief of Staff Sam Jamma, will likely muddy the waters further, with no clear front-runner on the Democratic side at this stage. Royce’s campaign war chest stands as the second-largest for any California incumbent. Ed Royce (R-Inc): Q1 - $507,195, Q2 - $459,507, COH - $3,119,794 Mai Khanh Tran (D): Q2 - $273,148, COH - $257,837 Phil Janowicz (D): Q2 - $180,284, COH - $149,454 Page 4 CA45 (R-Walters) – DCCC Target This has been a safe Republican district at the congressional level, although Hillary Clinton carried CA45 by over 5% in 2016, a fact that contributed to the DCCC placing this district on their initial 2018 target list. Incumbent Republican Mimi Walters has exhibited robust fundraising in 2017. However, three of her four Democratic challengers have themselves posted strong showings, with no single Democratic challenger able to claim front-runner status at this stage. Mimi Walters (R-Inc): Q1 - $384,728, Q2 - $701,697, COH - $1,110,722 Katie Porter (D): Q2 - $311,571, COH - $258,820 David Min (D): Q2 - $304,208, COH - $248,146 Kia Hamadanchy: Q2 - $200,010, COH - $129,172 Eric Rywalski (D): Q2 - $22,493, COH - $18,016 CA48 (R-Rohrabacher) – DCCC Target While ordinarily safely Republican, Hillary Clinton carried CA48 by close to 2% in 2016, and the DCCC has placed this district on their initial 2018 target list. With his ongoing defense of both Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, there has been no shortage of challengers stepping up to the plate for the chance to unseat the incumbent. Former Assemblyman and Orange County GOP Chair Scott Baugh began raising money for a future run in the event of Rohrabacher's retirement, initially with the incumbent's blessing.
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