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THQ Nordic Reason: Post-Results Comment Company Sponsored Research a Stronger THQ Emerges Following Q4’18 Not Rated

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THQ Nordic Reason: Post-Results Comment Company Sponsored Research a Stronger THQ Emerges Following Q4’18 Not Rated Equity Research - 20 February 2019 16:56 CET THQ Nordic Reason: Post-results comment Company sponsored research A stronger THQ emerges following Q4’18 Not rated Q4’18 in line with ABGSCe Estimate changes (%) Acquisitions strengthen THQ Nordic 2018e 2019e 2020e Metro Exodus off to flying start Sales 5.3% 6.3% 5.2% EBIT (rep) 9.1% 0.6% 0.4% Q4 vs. ABGSCe EPS (rep) 9.5% 0.8% 0.5% Q4’18 net sales came in at SEK 1,380m, representing a y-o-y growth rate Source: ABG Sundal Collier of 441%, driven by the acquisition of Koch Media and Darksiders 3 sales. Share price (SEK) 19/02/2019 199.0 Reported sales were 3.8% above our estimate of SEK 1,330m. Reported EBIT was SEK 152m, corresponding to an EBIT margin of 11%, which was Technology Hardware & Equipment, Sweden 4.6% below our estimated EBIT of SEK 159m. Looking specifically at the THQNb.ST/THQNb.ST THQ Nordic games segment, which developed Darksiders 3, reported Q4 sales were SEK 351.9m, 4.9% below our estimate of SEK 370m and MCap (SEKm) 16,388 based on 800k Darksiders 3 copies sold in Q4’18. Total development and MCap (EURm) 1,548.8 marketing costs for Darksiders 3 have nonetheless been recouped. Net debt (EURm) 35 Acquires Warhorse Studios and 18POINT2 In conjunction with the Q4 earnings, THQ announced two new No. of shares (m) 82.4 acquisitions: Warhorse Studios and 18POINT2. Warhorse Studios is a Free float (%) 46.2 leading game developer based in Prague, behind the successful award- Av. daily volume (k) 360.7 winning title Kingdom Come: Deliverance. 18POINT2 is one of Australia’s Next event Q4 report: 22 May leading publishing partners of games and products. We have raised our estimates to reflect these acquisitions, as well as the strong pipeline of upcoming releases in the Partner Publishing/Film segment. Further Performance information about the acquisitions can be found inside this report. 900 800 Metro Exodus 700 600 Metro Exodus seems to be off to a flying start, with the PC version 500 achieving a Metacritic score of 84, with PS4 and Xbox One not far 400 300 behind. Unofficial sales estimates have begun to emerge, with the game 200 reaching number two on UK Charts, indicating that physical sales for 100 Metro Exodus are 50% higher than the previous instalment in the Metro 0 Jul 17 Jul Jul 18 Jul Jan 17 Jan Jan 18 Jan Jan 19 Jan Mar 17 Mar Mar 18 Mar Nov 16 Nov Sep 17 Sep Nov 17 Nov Sep 18 Sep Nov 18 Nov May 17 May universe: Metro Last Light. We estimate that about 1m copies will be sold 18 May during Q5’18/Q1’19 (current financial year has been extended due to THQ Nordic OMX STH PI change to split year), and that the Deep Silver segment will reach total 1m 3m 12m sales of SEK 595m. Furthermore, contenders to Metro Exodus seem to Absolute (%) 17.1 12.9 42.3 be performing weaker than expected, with Crackdown reaching a OMX STH PI (%) 5.1 7.6 4.5 Metacritic score of 58 and Far Cry New Dawn posting a score of 73. We Source: FactSet believe this is likely to turn gamers’ eyes towards Metro Exodus. Lead analyst: Stefan Knutsson Erik Moberg Jesper Birch-Jensen SEKm 2016 2017 2018e 2019e 2020e 2018e 2019e 2020e Sales 302 508 5,624 5,390 5,670 P/E (x) 44.2 34.3 27.4 EBITDA 132 273 1,319 1,486 1,700 P/E adj (x) 44.2 34.3 27.4 EBITDA margin (%) 43.8 53.7 23.5 27.6 30.0 P/BVPS (x) 5.03 4.39 3.78 EBIT adj 95 188 560 704 878 EV/EBITDA (x) 14.2 12.5 10.7 EBIT adj margin (%) 31.5 37.1 10.0 13.1 15.5 EV/EBIT adj (x) 33.5 26.3 20.7 Pretax profit 93 182 535 680 854 EV/sales (x) 3.34 3.43 3.21 EPS rep 1.00 1.76 4.51 5.79 7.27 ROE adj (%) 17.6 13.6 14.8 EPS adj 1.00 1.76 4.51 5.79 7.27 Dividend yield (%) 0 0 0 Sales growth (%) 41.8 68.1 1,008.0 -4.2 5.2 FCF yield (%) -9.1 1.5 1.7 EPS growth (%) 17.0 75.8 156.5 28.6 25.5 Net IB debt/EBITDA 0.3 0.1 -0.1 Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report This research product is commissioned and paid for by the company covered in this report. As such, this report is deemed to constitute an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit (i.e. not investment research) as defined in MiFID II. THQ Nordic Opportunities Risks A large part of the IP portfolio is still not generating any Despite THQ Nordic’s broad portfolio, there are risks income, but the pipeline of game launches is strong, associated with larger title releases as they have a including a few AAA titles. Together with a strong relatively large impact on sales right after launch. management with a clear M&A agenda, THQ is well suited Moreover, disappointing releases or reviews could dent for future value-adding acquisitions, which could mean end-customer enthusiasm and hurt the company's securing more IPs and portfolio expansion. The acquisition finances, especially during the launch period. Delays in of Koch Media further adds new distribution/publishing planned and ongoing gaming projects could adversely channels, an opportunity to reach further and wider with affect the group’s profitability. Acquiring established but the current portfolio and expected pipeline, aligning them temporarily underperforming gaming brands and gradually for additional growth. improving them increases the potential risk of performing below market expectations. Sales distribution, 2018, SEKm Business area breakdown, 2018, SEKm 1,200 2,500 1,000 2,000 800 1,500 600 1,000 400 500 200 0 0 THQ Nordic Deep Silver Partner Owned titles Publishing titles Physical sales Digital sales Publishing/Film Sales Sales Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data EPS estimate changes, 2018e, SEK EPS estimate changes, 2019e, SEK 6.5 8.0 7.5 6.0 7.0 5.5 6.5 5.0 6.0 5.5 4.5 5.0 4.0 4.5 3.5 4.0 ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean ABGSC FactSet Consensus Mean Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Source: ABG Sundal Collier, FactSet Quarterly sales and adj. EBIT, SEKm Company description THQ Nordic acquires, develops and publishes PC and 1,600 160 console games for the global gaming market. Its core 1,400 140 business model consists of acquiring established gaming 1,200 120 brands and gradually improving them. Much of THQ’s soul 1,000 100 stems from entrepreneur, founder and CEO Lars Wingefors, who at the age of 16 founded Nordic Games, 800 80 which we today associate with THQ Nordic. The game 600 60 changer came in 2013 when most of today’s brand 400 40 portfolio was acquired from THQ Inc’s insolvency. At the 200 20 start of 2018, the company acquired Koch Media, which focuses on game development and gives THQ a larger 0 0 publishing business. quarterly sales quarterly adj. EBIT Source: ABG Sundal Collier, Company data 20 February 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 2 THQ Nordic Deviation table Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data 20 February 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 3 THQ Nordic Forecast changes We have revised our estimates for the upcoming years to include the contribution of Warhorse Studios, which will be included in the Deep Silver games segment, and 18POINT2, which will contribute to the Partner Publishing/Film segment. It should be noted that Warhorse Studios’s net revenue for ’18 was driven purely by the release of Kingdom Come: Deliverance, and thus we do not expect Warhorse Studios’s contribution to Deep Silver during ’19 to reach those levels. The upcoming DLC for Kingdom Come: Deliverance, which is due to be released in ’19, should however make a contribution. We have increased our estimates for the Publishing/Film segment for Q5’18/Q1’19 due to the strong pipeline of upcoming releases. More information regarding the pipeline can be found on the following pages. Furthermore, the new metric Operational EBIT has been added to our estimates, given that management believes it to be a better measure of THQ’s underlying operational performance. Operational EBIT excludes amortization of acquisition- related goodwill, surplus values of specific business areas (currently Partner Publishing and Film) and IP values (trademarks, patents, copyrights, etc). Source: ABG Sundal Collier, company data 20 February 2019 ABG Sundal Collier 4 THQ Nordic THQ Nordic in short THQ Nordic is in the business of acquiring, developing and publishing PC and console games for the global games market. Since its inception, the company has established a wide and diversified catalogue of over 100 owned franchises, following its acquisitions of the Austrian game publisher JoWooD in 2011 and the IPs from the American game developer and publisher THQ in 2013 after its bankruptcy. During 2018, THQ Nordic acquired Koch Media, through which the company strengthened its game portfolio with several AAA-titles – for example Metro Exodus and Dead Island 2 – and its global publishing reach. Several smaller acquisitions followed during 2018, and in early 2019, THQ acquired Warhorse Studios, a leading game developer based in Prague, behind the successful award-winning title Kingdom Come: Deliverance, and Australian publisher 18POINT2.
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