<<

E!ectiveness of Biodegradable in Preventing Spoilage Catherine R. Zhang1 and Jill Carter1 1Shrewsbury High School, 64 Holden Street, Shrewsbury, MA 01545

Summary: The purpose of this study was to compare 100% +HQFHLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRFRPSDUHWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRID (PLA) with a low- ELRGHJUDGDEOH SODVWLF LQ SUHYHQWLQJ IRRG VSRLODJH ZLWK plastic (LDPE) in terms of their WKDWRIDJHQHULFSODVWLF e!ectiveness against food spoilage. The interests of this )RRG VSRLODJH LV ZKHQ WKH RULJLQDO QXWULWLRQDO study were: 1) the type of plastic that is more e!ective YDOXH WH[WXUH RU ÀDYRU RI WKH IRRG DUH GDPDJHG DQG in preventing food spoilage, and 2) the materials’ properties, which are key factors in preventing food WKH IRRG EHFRPHV KDUPIXO WR SHRSOH DQG XQVXLWDEOH spoilage. Three trials were conducted testing the two WR HDW    )RRG VSRLOV PDLQO\ EHFDXVH RI PRLVWXUH , in which an apple half was wrapped in either R[\JHQ OLJKW DQG PLFURRUJDQLVPV  2[\JHQ FDQ KDYH 100% biodegradable plastic, LDPE plastic, or no plastic GHWHULRUDWLQJHIIHFWVRQIDWVIRRGFRORUVYLWDPLQVDQG at all (control). Over a period of 11 days, the daily mass of ÀDYRUVDQGFDQFUHDWHFRQGLWLRQVVXLWDEOHIRUWKHJURZWK the apple was measured to determine the type of plastic RI PLFURRUJDQLVPV 2[\JHQ DOVR FDXVHV R[LGDWLYH that was more e!ective in preventing food spoilage. The VSRLODJHZKLFKLVWKHPDLQFDXVHRITXDOLW\ORVVLQIDWV results showed that in the long term (11 days), the LDPE  2[LGDWLRQLVWKHORVVRIHOHFWURQV2[LGDWLRQQRWRQO\ plastic was more e!ective in preventing food spoilage VWDUWVWRGHJUDGHWKHDSSOH¶VQXWULHQWVEXWDWPRVSKHULF than the biodegradable plastic. By day 11, the apples in LDPE plastic lost about 4.84% of their original mass, the R[\JHQ FDQ UHDFW ZLWK VRPH IRRG FRPSRQHQWV ZKLFK apples in biodegradable plastic lost 18.25% of their mass, PD\ FDXVH UDQFLGLW\ RU FRORU FKDQJHV    &HUWDLQ and the control apples lost about 56.11% of their mass. HQ]\PHVLQIRRGVFDQVSHHGXSWKHFKHPLFDOUHDFWLRQV However, in the short term (1-3 days), both the apples EHWZHHQ R[\JHQ DQG IRRG  ,Q DSSOHV WKH VSHFL¿F in LDPE plastic and the apples in the biodegradable HQ]\PH WKDW FDXVHV WKH EURZQLVK FRORU WR DSSHDU LV plastic lost a similar amount of their mass (2-4%) while FDOOHGSRO\SKHQROR[LGDVH([SRVXUHWROLJKWFDQFDXVH the control apples lost about 20% of their mass. The IRRGVSRLODJHWKURXJKSKRWRGHJUDGDWLRQ GHJUDGDWLRQE\ results demonstrate that the biodegradable plastic can 89OLJKW LQWKHSLJPHQWVIDWVSURWHLQVDQGYLWDPLQVRI prevent food spoilage as e!ectively as the LDPE plastic IRRG   ,Q VROLG IRRGV SKRWRGHJUDGDWLRQ RFFXUV ZKHUH in the short term. Hopefully, this will increase the appeal of biodegradable to consumers due to its ability to WKHOLJKWSHQHWUDWHVWKHRXWHUOD\HURIWKHIRRG,QOLTXLGV reduce the amount of trash in land"lls. OLJKWSHQHWUDWLRQFDQEHJUHDWHUEXWWKHOLJKWSHQHWUDWLRQ GHSHQGVRQIDFWRUVVXFKDVWKHOLJKWVRXUFHVWUHQJWKDQG 5HFHLYHG6HSWHPEHU$FFHSWHG1RYHPEHU WKHW\SHRIOLJKWHPLWWHG   3XEOLVKHG0DUFK ,QWKLVVWXG\WKHIRFXVZLOOEHRQH[DPLQLQJWKH LQÀXHQFHRIPRLVWXUHRQIRRGVSRLODJH1RUPDOO\EDUULHU &RS\ULJKW ‹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ŠDQG*ODGŠ&OLQJ JURZLQJ ODQG¿OO SUREOHP  ,Q WKH SDVW PXFK UHVHDUFK :UDS  /'3( LV ÀH[LEOH WUDQVSDUHQW UHVLVWV WHDULQJ KDV EHHQ GRQH WR WHVW WKH ELRGHJUDGDELOLW\ RI WKHVH DQG DFWV DV D PRLVWXUH EDUULHU  ,W DOVR KDV YHU\ JRRG W\SHV RI SODVWLFV KRZHYHU FRPSDULVRQV EHWZHHQ UHVLVWDQFHWRDFLGVEDVHVDQGYHJHWDEOHRLOV%HFDXVH ELRGHJUDGDEOH SODVWLFV DQG JHQHULF SODVWLFV LQ WKHLU RI WKLV H[FHOOHQW FRPELQDWLRQ RI SURSHUWLHV LW LV ZLGHO\ HIIHFWLYHQHVVLQWKHSUHYHQWLRQRIIRRGVSRLODJHZKLFK XVHG IRU SDFNDJLQJ DSSOLFDWLRQV    7KH ZDWHU YDSRU LQWHUHVWVWKHFRQVXPHUKDVQRWEHHQGHHSO\H[DPLQHG WUDQVPLVVLRQUDWH :975 LVRQHRIWKHNH\LQGLFDWRUVIRU

March 20, 2012 1 GHWHUPLQLQJDSODVWLFZUDS¶VHIIHFWLYHQHVVLQSUHYHQWLQJ ELRGHJUDGDEOHEDJZDVPHDVXUHGXVLQJDGLJLWDO IRRG VSRLODJH ,W LV GH¿QHG DV WKH UDWH DW ZKLFK ZDWHU PLFURPHWHU DQG WKH WKLFNQHVV RI WKH EDJ ZDV YDSRUFDQPRYHIURPRQHVLGHRIWKHEDUULHUWRWKHRWKHU IRXQGWREHPLFURQV%HFDXVHWKHWKLFNQHVVRIWKH 7KHWUDQVPLVVLRQUDWHRIJDVHVDQGYDSRUVGHSHQGVRQ EDJ LV  PLFURQV WKH WKLFNQHVV RI WKH ELRGHJUDGDEOH ERWKWKHVROXELOLW\RIWKHJDVHVDQGWKHLUUDWHRIGLIIXVLRQ ¿OPZDVIRXQGWREHPLFURQV7KHWKLFNQHVVRIWKH WKURXJKWKHEDUULHU ZKLFKGHSHQGVRQWKHFRQ¿JXUDWLRQ /'3(SODVWLFZDVPHDVXUHGXVLQJDGLJLWDOPLFURPHWHU RIWKHEDUULHUSRO\PHU   &XUUHQWELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLF DQGIRXQGWREHPLFURQV ZUDSV H[3/$ KDYHDKLJKHU:975WKDQ/'3(SODVWLF  )LUVW HDFK DSSOH ZDV FXW LQ KDOI LQ RUGHU WR ZUDS   DFFHOHUDWHWKHVSHHGRIDSSOHVSRLODJHDQGWKHQXVLQJ 3HUPHDELOLW\LVDIXQFWLRQRIERWKWKHSHUPHDQFH D SHUPDQHQW PDUNHU HDFK DSSOH KDOI ZDV ODEHOHG DQG WKH WKLFNQHVV RI WKH EDUULHU PDWHULDO 3HUPHDWLRQ ZLWK D QXPEHU IROORZHG E\ D OHWWHU ZKHUH WKH QXPEHU ZKLFKLQFOXGHVWKHUDWHDWZKLFKDJDVSDVVHVWKURXJK UHSUHVHQWV ZKLFK RI WKH ¿YH DSSOHV LW LV     RU D EDUULHU PDWHULDO LV DIIHFWHG E\ WKH FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI   DQG WKH OHWWHU UHSUHVHQWV ZKLFK KDOI RI WKH DSSOH LW WKHSRO\PHUVXFKDVLWVFKHPLFDOPDNHXS3HUPHDELOLW\ LV RQHKDOIRIWKHDSSOHLV$DQGWKHRWKHULV% 7KH LV DOVR DIIHFWHG E\ WKH PROHFXODU RUJDQL]DWLRQ RI WKLFNQHVVHVRIERWKSODVWLFZUDSVZHUHPHDVXUHGXVLQJ WKH SRO\PHU VXFK DV FU\VWDOOLQLW\ FU\VWDOOLWHV DUH DPLFURPHWHU7KH*ODGŠ&OLQJ:UDSZDVPHDVXUHGDQG LPSHUPHDEOH VR D SRO\PHU ZLWK D KLJKHU GHJUHH RI WRUQDWDOHQJWKRIFP2QHKDOIRIDQDSSOHZDVIXOO\ FU\VWDOOLQLW\ ZLOO KDYH D ORZHU DPRXQW RI SHUPHDWLRQ FRYHUHGDQGZUDSSHGLQ*ODGŠ&OLQJZUDS7KHRWKHU UHVXOWLQJLQLWEHLQJDEHWWHUEDUULHU3HUPHDELOLW\LVDOVR KDOIRIWKHVDPHDSSOHZDVSXWLQWRD%LR0DVVŠ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ÀHVKVLGHRIHDFKDSSOHKDOI8VLQJDGLJLWDOEDODQFH ELRGHJUDGDEOH SODVWLF ZUDS   WKH PDWHULDO SURSHUWLHV WKH PDVV RI HDFK DSSOH LQFOXGLQJ WKH EDJZUDS  ZDV ZKLFKSUHYHQWIRRGVSRLODJHDQG WKHDYHUDJHDPRXQW UHFRUGHG RQ D FKDUW  2Q WKH IROORZLQJ GD\ DQRWKHU RIWLPHIRUHDFKSODVWLFZUDSWKDWLWWDNHVIRUWKHDSSOH SLFWXUH ZDV WDNHQ RI HDFK DSSOH KDOI ERWK VLGHV  DQG WRVSRLOE\PHDVXULQJWKHDYHUDJHDFFXPXODWHGUDWHRI WKHPDVVZDVUHFRUGHG8VLQJDYHJHWDEOHSHHOHUDQ PDVVORVVRYHUWLPH7KHSXUSRVHRIWKLVVWXG\ZDVWR H[WUHPHO\WKLQVOLFHRIHDFKDSSOHZDVVOLFHGDQGSODFHG FRPSDUH WKH HIIHFWLYHQHVV RI D  ELRGHJUDGDEOH RQ D VOLGH ZLWK D FRYHU VOLS WR EH REVHUYHG VNHWFKHG SODVWLF %LR0DVVŠ  ZLWK D ORZGHQVLW\ SRO\HWK\OHQH DQGREVHUYDWLRQVUHFRUGHG XQGHUDPLFURVFRSH(DFK /'3(  SODVWLF *ODGŠ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¿UVWFKDQJHGWRWKHDFFXPXODWHGPDVV ZRXOGEHPRUHHIIHFWLYHWKDQWKHELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLF ORVVHDFKGD\E\FDOFXODWLQJWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKH LQSUHYHQWLQJIRRGVSRLODJH,QWKHVKRUWWHUP GD\V  FXUUHQW PDVV DQG WKH RULJLQDO PDVV  7KHQ WKH PDVV WKH/'3(DQGELRGHJUDGDEOHZUDSSHUIRUPHGVLPLODUO\ ORVVZDVFKDQJHGLQWRWKHUDWHRIPDVVORVVE\GLYLGLQJ LQ SUHYHQWLQJ IRRG VSRLODJH ZKLOH LQ WKH ORQJ WHUP  WKHRULJLQDOPDVVE\WKHDFFXPXODWHGPDVVORVVDWWKDW GD\V  WKH /'3( ZUDS SHUIRUPHG PRUH HIIHFWLYHO\ LQ GD\DQGWKHQFRQYHUWLQJWKHGHFLPDOLQWRDSHUFHQWDJH SUHYHQWLQJIRRGVSRLODJHWKDQWKHELRGHJUDGDEOHZUDS 0LFURVRIW([FHOZDVXVHGWRFDOFXODWHWKHFKDQJHLQWKH  PDVV RI WKH DSSOHV WR GHWHUPLQH WKH DYHUDJH UDWH RI 0DWHULDOVDQG0HWKRGV DFFXPXODWHGPDVVORVVDQGWRFUHDWHJUDSKV 7KHDSSOHVXVHGLQWKHVWXG\ZHUH*DODDSSOHV)RUWKH ELRGHJUDGDEOH SODVWLF %LR0DVVŠ %DJV 3/$ )ODW %DJ 5HVXOWV ZLWK ´ /LS  7DSH ´;´  ZHUH XVHG )RU WKH /'3( 7KH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH RI WKLV H[SHULPHQW ZDV SODVWLF*ODGŠ&OLQJ:UDSZDVXVHG7KHSHUPHDELOLW\ WKH W\SH RI SODVWLF D JHQHULF /'3( SODVWLF YHUVXV D RI WKH /'3( SODVWLF XVHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ LV  ELRGHJUDGDEOH %LR0DVVŠ SODVWLF ZKLOH WKH GHSHQGHQW JUDPVVTLQGD\DWR&  7KHWKLFNQHVVRIWKH YDULDEOHZDVWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVRIWKHSODVWLFLQSUHYHQWLQJ

March 20, 2012 2 7DEOH'DLO\PDVVRIHDFKDSSOHDQGDYHUDJHDFFXPXODWHGPDVVORVVRIWKUHHFRQGLWLRQVWHVWHG DSSOHVZUDSSHGLQ*ODGŠSODVWLF DSSOHVZUDSSHGLQELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLFDQGWKHFRQWURODSSOHV

IRRGVSRLODJH VSHFL¿FDOO\PHDVXUHGE\WKHDYHUDJHUDWH PDVV IURP WKH GD\ EHIRUH E\  JUDPV  %RWK WKH RIDFFXPXODWHGPDVVORVV 7KHFRQWUROZDVDQDSSOH RXWOLHUVZHUHDSSOHVLQ/'3( ZLWKQREDUULHUZKLFKZDVXVHGWRFRPSDUHWKHUHVXOWV ,QWKHDQDO\VLVWKHUDZGDWDRIWKHPDVVRIWKH RIWKHDSSOHVZUDSSHGLQWKHSODVWLFVWRDQDSSOHZLWK DSSOHHYHU\GD\ZDV¿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ŠORVWRIWKHLUPDVVDQGWKHDSSOHVLQWKH EDUULHUPDWHULDOZDVEHWWHULQSUHYHQWLQJIRRGVSRLODJH %LR0DVVŠEDJVORVWRIWKHLUPDVV  TXDQWLWDWLYHPHWKRG²PDVVORVVPHDVXUHGE\WDNLQJ  )XUWKHUPRUHR[LGDWLRQDOVRSOD\HGDUROHLQWKH WKHPDVVRIWKHDSSOHVGDLO\ 7DEOH DQG TXDOLWDWLYH H[SHULPHQW7KLVVWDUWVWRSURPRWHIRRGVSRLODJHDVWKH PHWKRG²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

7DEOH&RPSDULVRQRIFDOFXODWHGDYHUDJHRIWKHUDWHRIDFFXPXODWHGPDVVORVVRIHDFKFDWHJRU\RIDSSOH DSSOHVZUDSSHGLQ *ODGŠSODVWLFDSSOHVZUDSSHGLQELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLFDQGWKHFRQWURO

March 20, 2012 3 )LJXUH  $ SORW RI WKH DYHUDJH UDWH RI DFFXPXODWHGPDVVORVVZLWKYDOXHVRQWKH SORWZKLFKUHSUHVHQWWKH:975 \VORSHRI EHVW¿WOLQHVQRWGHSLFWHGKHUH 

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ŠDSSOHVRQO\ORVWRIWKHLUPDVV7KLV WKH H[SHULPHQWDO GDWD KDV EHHQ FDUULHG RXW 6LQFH UHVXOW LPSOLHV WKDW WKH ELRGHJUDGDEOH SODVWLF ZUDSSHG WKH:975 : LVUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKHZDWHUYDSRUORVV DSSOHVORVWPRUHZDWHUWKDQWKH/'3(ZUDSSHGDSSOHV * LQDXQLWRIWLPH W WKURXJKDXQLWDUHD $ RIERG\ EHFDXVH ELRGHJUDGDEOH SODVWLFV KDYH KLJKHU ZDWHU : * Wā$ 7KHUHIRUHDOOSORWVLQ)LJXUHFDQEH¿WDV YDSRU WUDQVPLVVLRQ UDWHV WKDQ *ODG &OLQJ :UDS DQG VWUDLJKWOLQHVZLWK* $ā: āWLQRWKHUZRUGVWKHVORSH /'3( SODVWLFV DV GHVFULEHG DERYH   'XH WR WKH IDFW RIWKHSORWLVN $ā: :DWHUYDSRUSHUPHDELOLW\ K LV WKDW WKH DSSOHV LQ WKH ELRGHJUDGDEOH SODVWLF ORVW PRUH GH¿QHGDVWKHUDWHRIZDWHUYDSRUWUDQVPLVVLRQWKURXJK PDVVWKDQWKHDSSOHVLQWKHJHQHULF/'3(SODVWLFWKH D PDWHULDO RI WKLFNQHVV G  LQGXFHG E\ WKH XQLW YDSRU ELRGHJUDGDEOH SODVWLF ZDV QRW DV HIIHFWLYH RI D EDUULHU SUHVVXUHGLIIHUHQFH ǻ3 EHWZHHQWZRVSHFL¿FVXUIDFHV PDWHULDO DV WKH JHQHULF /'3( DQG WKHUHIRUH LV QRW DV LH K :ā Gǻ37KHUHIRUH WKH VORSH RI WKH SORW LQ WKH HIIHFWLYH LQ WKH SUHYHQWLRQ RI IRRG VSRLODJH +RZHYHU )LJXUHGHVFULEHGDERYHFDQEHIXUWKHUSUHVHQWHGDV WKHH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVDOVRVKRZWKDWLQWKHVKRUWWHUP N $ā: $āKāǻ3G  7KH WKLFNQHVV RI /'3( ZUDS LV GD\V WKH/'3(SODVWLFDQGELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLF PHDVXUHGDVG PLFURQDQGWKHELRGHJUDGDEOHEDJ SHUIRUPHGYHU\VLPLODUO\DQGRQO\LQWKHORQJWHUP GD\V KDVDWKLFNQHVVRIG PLFURQ,QWKHSUHVHQWVWXG\  GRHVWKH/'3(SODVWLFEHJLQWRSHUIRUPEHWWHUWKDQ ZHKDYHWKHVDPHSDFNDJLQJDUHD $ DQGVDPHYDSRU WKHELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLF )LJXUH 0RVWFRQVXPHUV SUHVVXUHǻ3WKXVWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RIWKHELRGHJUDGDEOH DUHOLNHO\ORRNLQJIRUDSODVWLFWKDWFDQSURWHFWWKHLUIRRG EDJ K  FDQ EH GHWHUPLQHG IURP WKH WZR SORW VORSHV LQWKHVKRUWWHUP WRGD\V $VDUHVXOWELRGHJUDGDEOH GLVSOD\HG LQ )LJXUH  IRU *ODGŠ N  DQG SODVWLFVFDQEHDVVXLWDEOHIRUVKRUWWHUPFRQGLWLRQVDV ELRGHJUDGDEOH EDJ N   DQG WKH NQRZQ ZDWHU D JHQHULF SODVWLF ZKLFK FDQ KRSHIXOO\ LQFUHDVH WKHLU YDSRU SHUPHDELOLW\ YDOXH RI /'3( K  JUDPV DSSHDOWRFRQVXPHUV VT LQGD\     :LWK NN KāGKāG  VXEVWLWXWLQJ 6HFRQGO\ WKH H[SHULPHQWDO REVHUYDWLRQV LQ WKH NQRZQ YDOXHV RI SDUDPHWHUV JLYHV K NāGāK FKDQJHVRIDSSOHFRORUDQGWH[WXUHDOVRGHPRQVWUDWHG NāG  [  [    [   JUDPV WKDWWKHJHQHULF/'3(KDVWKHEHWWHUEDUULHUSURSHUW\WR VTLQGD\ZKLFKPHDQVWKDWWKHZDWHUYDSRUSHUPHDELOLW\ UHVLVWWKHGLVFRORUDWLRQDQGR[LGDWLRQRIWKHIRRGLQWKH LV DOPRVW  WLPHV KLJKHU IRU WKH ELRGHJUDGDEOH EDJ ORQJWHUP,Q)LJXUHR[LGDWLRQLVVKRZQWREHWKHZRUVW WKDQ WKH RQH PDGH RI /'3(  'HVSLWH WKH WKLFNHU ¿OP LQWKHFRQWURODSSOHKRZHYHULWLVYHU\VLPLODULQWKH/'3( RIWKHELRGHJUDGDEOHEDJZKLFKFDQEHWWHUVORZZDWHU ZUDSSHGDSSOHDQGWKHELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLFZUDSSHG YDSRU ORVV WKH PXFK KLJKHU ZDWHU SHUPHDELOLW\ RI WKH DSSOH+RZHYHUE\GD\DOORIWKHDSSOHVDUHVSRLOHG ELRGHJUDGDEOH ¿OP OHDGV WR KLJKHU ZDWHU ORVV LQ WKH GLVSOD\LQJ WKDW WKRXJK /'3( DQG WKH ELRGHJUDGDEOH DSSOH SODVWLF DUH YHU\ VLPLODU LQ SUHYHQWLQJ R[LGDWLRQ LQ WKH

March 20, 2012 4 WKH*ODGŠ&OLQJ:UDSLVPRUHHIIHFWLYHLQSUHYHQWLQJIRRG VSRLODJHFRPSDUHGZLWKWKH%LR0DVVŠ%DJ+RZHYHU WKH%LR0DVVŠ%DJZDVVWLOOVXI¿FLHQWLQSUHYHQWLQJIRRG VSRLODJHLQWKHVKRUWWHUP+RSHIXOO\WKLVZLOOLQFUHDVH WKHDSSHDORIELRGHJUDGDEOHEDJVWRFRQVXPHUVGXHWR LWV DELOLW\ WR UHGXFH WKH DPRXQW RI WUDVK LQ WKH ODQG¿OO 0HDQZKLOH KRSHIXOO\ PRUH VFLHQWL¿F EUHDNWKURXJKV LQ UHSOLFDWLQJWKHPROHFXODUVWUXFWXUHRI/'3(ZLOODOORZIRU PRUHHIIHFWLYHELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLFVVROXWLRQV 7KHUH DUH D IHZ DUHDV WKDW FRXOG EH IXUWKHU LPSURYHGXSRQLQIXWXUHVWXG\0RUHW\SHVRISODVWLFV FRXOG EH XVHG LQ IXWXUH VWXGLHV $QRWKHU DUHD WR LQYHVWLJDWHLVWKHLQÀXHQFHVRIWHPSHUDWXUHDQGKXPLGLW\ RQWKHSHUPHDELOLW\RI/'3(DQG%LR0DVVŠ3ODVWLF,WLV FOHDUWKDWWKHUHDUHPDQ\LPSURYHPHQWRSSRUWXQLWLHVIRU ELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLFVVSHFL¿FDOO\KRZWRUHSOLFDWHWKH PROHFXODUVWUXFWXUHRI/'3(RUXVLQJFRDWLQJVLQRUGHUWR PD[LPL]HWKHHIIHFWLYHQHVVLQSUHYHQWLQJIRRGVSRLODJH

$FNQRZOHGJPHQWV  , ZRXOG OLNH WR WKDQN 0UV -LOO &DUWHU IRU VXSHUYLVLQJP\H[SHULPHQW,ZRXOGDOVROLNHWRWKDQN 6KUHZVEXU\ +LJK 6FKRRO IRU DOORZLQJ PH WR SHUIRUP P\H[SHULPHQWLQWKHLUFODVVURRPV)LQDOO\,ZRXOGOLNH WR WKDQN 0U $OOHQ .LQJ IURP %LR0DVVŠ 3DFNDJLQJ IRU GRQDWLQJIUHHVDPSOHVRIWKHLU3/$ELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLF IRUP\H[SHULPHQWDWLRQ

)LJXUH3LFWXUHVRIWKHDSSOHVLQWKHWHVWLQJFRQGLWLRQVDW 5HIHUHQFHV D 'D\E 'D\F 'D\G 'D\ ³3ODVWLF´(DUWK1S:HE2FW ³'HVFULEH:K\)RRG6SRLOV´)RRG6DIHW\2UJDQL]DWLRQ VKRUWWHUPLQWKHORQJWHUPR[LGDWLRQDIIHFWHGDOORIWKH 'HSDUWPHQWRI)RRG6FLHQFHDQG WHVWHGDSSOHV+RZHYHUDOWKRXJKWKH%LR0DVVŠSODVWLF +XPDQ1XWULWLRQRI&OHPVRQ8QLYHUVLW\QG:HE2FW GLGQRWSUHYHQWWKHSDVVDJHRIYDSRUVDQGRUJDQLFOLTXLGV  WKURXJK WKHLU ERXQGDULHV DV ZHOO DV WKH *ODGŠ &OLQJ 0DVVH\/LHVHO.3HUPHDELOLW\3URSHUWLHVRI3ODVWLFV :UDS /'3(  %LR0DVVŠ GRHV VORZ GRZQ WKH DSSOH DQG(ODVWRPHUV$*XLGHWR VSRLODJH VSHHG FRPSDUHG ZLWK WKH XQZUDSSHG DSSOHV 3DFNDJLQJDQG%DUULHU0DWHULDOV1RUZLFK1<:LOOLDP ZKLFKLVGHPRQVWUDWHGLQWKHH[SHULPHQWDOUHVXOWVWKDW $QGUHZV3XEOLVKLQJ WKHFRQWURODSSOHVORVWDERXWRIWKHLUPDVVZKLOH 3ULQW WKHELRGHJUDGDEOHDSSOHVORVWDERXW+HQFHWKH &DVWHOOLRQ0DU\³3ODVWLFVDQG2WKHU3RO\PHUV´7KH FRQFOXVLRQLVWKDWWKH%LR0DVVŠELRGHJUDGDEOHSODVWLFLV 1HZ%RRNRI3RSXODU6FLHQFH(G QRWDVHIIHFWLYHDVSUHYHQWLQJIRRGVSRLODJHFRPSDUHG -HUU\%HQQLV(GLWLRQ9RO'DQEXU\&7*UROLHU ZLWK QRQELRGHJUDGDEOH JHQHULF *ODGŠ LQ WKH ORQJ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO,QF WHUP EXW LW LV DV HIIHFWLYH DV SUHYHQWLQJ IRRG VSRLODJH 3ULQW FRPSDUHGZLWKDJHQHULFZUDSLQWKHVKRUWWHUPDQGFDQ 'HDFRQ-LP³$SSOH5RWDQG2WKHU)UXLW5RW)XQJL´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

March 20, 2012 5