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Ehsan Modiri (1) and Sadegh Modiri (2) Introduction Materials Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province Ehsan Modiri (1) and Sadegh Modiri (2) 1- Young Researchers and Elites Club, Sciences and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran. 2- Institute of Geodesy, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany. [email protected] Introduction Evaluation of treats and vulnerability level: According to Table 5 and definitions made for different levels, the studied stations were classified by Kriging interpolation The Earth’s climate continuously change. However, the Earth's Table 2:Annual precipitation in terms of vulnerability levels model as shown in the following figure. atmosphere tries to reach a balance. In the recent decades, the intense rainfall events were observed in different parts of the world. These events Number Annual precipitation [mm] Vulnerability levels caused phenomena such as severe floods and destructive waves. If such 1 50 ≤ 푋 ˂ 100 Complete severe and stormy rains occur in areas without vegetation, it would be 2 100 ≤ 푋 ˂ 150 Extensive more threatening in these areas. The soil is less permeable in such areas, 3 150 ≤ 푋 ˂ 200 Moderate and the significant amount of the rainfalls is transformed into runoff and 4 200 ≤ 푋 ˂ 250 Slight flood that caused damages. This feature can be clearly observed in arid 5 250 ≤ No threat regions such as East of Iran. Iran is one of the top 10 countries of the world in the cause of disaster- Table 3: Climatic potential threats based on the annual precipitation prone, because of its geographical position. Due to the climate condition Vulnerability Vulnerability in North-East of Iran, This area is annually affected by heavy rainfalls that Station Station levels levels lead to floods. These floods are damaged the human life there. Birjand Torbat-e Jam Ghaen Moderate Boshruyeh Complete Figure 1: Executive algorithm for determination of climatic vulnerability levels. Sabzevar Materials & Methodology Sarakhs Results Kashmar Khoor Birjand Golmakan Slight Nehbandan 17 synoptic stations are selected in Great Khorasan province with the Extensive minimum of 21 and maximum of 62 years of statistical length. The Analysis of trends in total annual precipitation and mean annual precipitation: Nishapur Gonabad precipitation pattern and its changes during the study period are Mashhad Ferdows investigated by the Mann-Kendal test. Bojnoord Torbat-e Hydarieh Table 1: Specification of studied weather stations No threat Figure 4: The map of vulnerability levels caused by climatic threats. No. Station Latitude Longitude Height (m) Ghouchan 1 Bojnoord 37 º 28' 57 º 19' 1091.0 Conclusion Boshruyeh 33 º 54' 57 º 27' 885.0 2 Table 4: Levels of vulnerability in Great Khorasan. The total annual precipitation trend was positive for six stations, negative 3 Birjand 32 º 52' 59 º 12' 1491.0 for ten stations, and zero (no trend) at only one station. In general, the Station Level of threat Station Level of threat northern part of the studied region showed a positive trend (Figure 4). 4 Torbat-e Jam 35 º 15' 60 º 35' 950.4 Birjand Boshruyeh Also, the mean annual precipitation in stations located in the eastern strip Ghaen Complete 5 Torbat-e Heydarieh 35 º 16' 27 º 12' 1450.8 Khoor Birjand of Iran was estimated to be less than the mean annual precipitation for the Kashmar Slight whole country in most cases, indicating the arid climate of this region. 6 Khoor Birjand 32 º 56' 58 º 26' 1117.4 Nishapur Gonabad Sabzevar More than 250 mm of rainfall per year was observed only in 4 stations. Torbat-e Jam 7 Sabzevar 36 º 12' 57 º 43' 977.6 Figure 2: Iso-trend map of annual precipitation changes by Kendall method Sarakhs Extensive Each parameter of mean annual precipitation trend and mean annual Golmakan precipitation are separately assessed at five levels of vulnerability. 8 Sarakhs 36 º 32' 61 º 10' 235.0 Ferdows Bojnoord 9 Ferdows 34 º 01' 58 º 10' 1293.0 Torbat-e Heydarieh No threat 10 Ghaen 33 º 43' 59 º 10' 1432.0 Ghouchan Nehbandan Moderate Mashhad Reference 11 Ghouchan 37 º 04' 58 º 30' 1287.0 Abbaspour, K. C., Faramarzi, M., Seyed Ghasemi, S. and Yang, H. Assessing the impact 12 Kashmar 35 º 12' 58 º 28' 1109.7 According to the classified threats to the trend of precipitation changes and annual precipitation, the status of the levels of threats in the studied region was of climate change on water resources in Iran. J.Water Resources Research. 45: Golmakan 36 º 29' 59 º 17' 13 1176.0 obtained. W10434 . 2009. 14 Gonabad 34 º 21' 58 º 41' 1056.0 Mofidi. A, Hosseinzadeh. S. R, Mohamadiyarian. E. Zonation of atmospheric hazards in Table 5: Dimensionless coefficient ranges for each level in stations 15 Mashhad 36 º 16' 59 º 38' 999.2 northeast of Iran; Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, Vol. 2, 16 Nehbandan 31 º 32' 60 º 02' 1211.0 Number Ranges of coefficients Threat No. 6. 2013. 1 0.9 – 1 Complete Nishabur 36 º 16' 58 º 48' Modiri. E, Givechi. S, Modiri. M. Assessment of environmental vulnerability levels 17 1213.0 2 0.7 – 0.8 Extensive 3 0.6 Moderate resulting from changes in precipitation patterns in the eastern provinces of 4 0.4 – 0.5 Slight Iran; The Second Conference on Environmental Planning and Management, Figure 3: Iso-Precipitation map of 1951-2015 5 0.2 – 0.3 No threat University of Tehran. 2012..
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