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Panama-Pandemic-Response-And The World Bank Panama Pandemic Response and Growth Recovery Development Policy Loan (P174107) Document of The World Bank Public Disclosure Authorized FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PGD207 INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM DOCUMENT FOR A PROPOSED LOAN Public Disclosure Authorized IN THE AMOUNT OF US$300 MILLION TO REPUBLIC OF PANAMA FOR THE PANAMA PANDEMIC RESPONSE AND GROWTH RECOVERY DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN Public Disclosure Authorized November 13, 2020 Macroeconomics, Trade and Investment and Education Global Practices Latin America and Caribbean Region Public Disclosure Authorized This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Official Use The World Bank Panama Pandemic Response and Growth Recovery Development Policy Loan (P174107) Republic of Panama GOVERNMENT FISCAL YEAR January 1 – December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective as of October 30, 2020) PAB 1.00 = US$1.00 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AIG Governmental Innovation Agency IPSAS International Public Sector Accountability (Agencia de Innovación Standards Gubernamental) AG Guardian Angel (Ángel Guardián) ISTMO Integrated Financial Management System (Integración y Soluciones Tecnológicas del Modelo de Gestión Operativa) AML/CFT Anti-Money Laundering and LAC Latin America and Caribbean Combating the Financing of Terrorism ASA Advisory Services and Analytics LAYS Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling ASEP Regulatory Authority for Public LDP Letter of Development Policy Services (Autoridad Nacional de los Servicios Públicos) BCIE Central American Bank for Economic LPG Liquified Petroleum Gas Integration (Banco Centroamericano de Integración Económica) BEPS Base Erosion and Profit Shifting LTU Large Taxpayer Unit BNP National Bank of Panama (Banco MEDUCA Ministry of Education (Ministerio de Nacional de Panamá) Educación) CA Central America MEF Ministry of Economy and Finance (Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas) CAD Current Account Deficit MiAmbiente Ministry of Environment (Ministerio de Ambiente) CCT Conditional Cash Transfers MIDES Ministry of Social Development (Ministerio de Desarrollo Social) CONADAF National Committee for Family MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency Farming (Comité Nacional de Agricultura Familiar) COONAPIP National Coordinators of Indigenous MINGOB Ministry of Government (Ministerio de Peoples of Panama (Coordinadora Gobierno) Nacional de Pueblos Indígenas de Panamá) COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease MINSA Ministry of Health (Ministerio de Salud) CPF Country Partnership Framework MLTD Medium- and Long-Term Debt CSS Social Security Agency (Caja de MSME Medium-, Small- and Micro-enterprises Seguridad Social) DGCP Directorate General for Public NGO Nongovernmental Organization Procurement (Dirección General de Contratación Pública) DGI Directorate General for Taxes OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and (Dirección General de Impuestos) Development DNFBP Designated Non-Financial Business PACE National Program for Complementary and Professions School Feeding (Programa de Alimentación Complementaria Escolar) DPF Development Policy Finance PAHO Pan American Health Organization DPO Development Policy Operation PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis PEG Strategic Government Plan (Plan Estratégico de Gobierno) EU European Union PFM Public Financial Management FAO Food and Agricultural Organization PLR Performance and Learning Review of the United Nations FATF Financial Action Task Force PPP Public Private Partnerships FDI Foreign Direct Investment PPS Panama Solidarity Plan (Plan Panamá Solidário) FFL Family Farming Law RdO Network of Opportunities (Red de Oportunidad) GAFILAT Financial Action Task Force of Latin RFI Rapid Financing Instrument America (Grupo de Acción Financiera de Latinoamérica) GDI Graduation Discussion Income RUAF Family Farmers Single Registry (Registro Único de Agricultores Familiares) GDP Gross Domestic Product SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic GF Global Forum on Transparency and SFRL Social and Fiscal Responsibility Law Exchange of Information for Tax Purpose GLE General Law of the Environment SDR Special Drawing Rights GNI Gross National Income SIA Inter-institutional Environmental System (Sistema Interinstitucional Ambiental) GoP Government of Panama SINAP National System of Protected Areas (Sistema Nacional de Áreas Protegidas de Panamá) GRS Grievance Redress System SNAPP National Secretariat for Public-Private Partnerships (Secretaría Nacional de Asociaciones Publico Privada) HCI Human Capital Index SOE State-Owned Enterprises HIC High Income Country SSINGEI Sustainable System of National Greenhouse Gases Inventories IBRD International Bank for TSA Treasury Single Account Reconstruction and Development ICT Information and Communication UBO Ultimate Beneficial Ownership Technology IDB Inter-American Development Bank UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund IFI International Financial Institutions VAT Value Added Tax INEC National Institute of Statistics and VRE Variable Renewable Energy Census (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censo) IMAE Monthly Economic Activity Index WB World Bank (Índice Mensual de Actividad Official Use Económica) IMF International Monetary Fund WBG World Bank Group IP Indigenous Peoples Official Use Regional Vice President: Carlos Felipe Jaramilo Country Director: Andrea Guedes (Acting) Regional Director (s): Robert R. Taliercio and Luis Benveniste Practice Manager (s): Jorge Thompson Araujo and Emanuela di Gropello Rafael Chelles Barroso, Barbara Cunha, and Monica Yanez- Task Team Leader (s): Pagans . Official Use The World Bank Panama Pandemic Response and Growth Recovery Development Policy Loan (P174107) REPUBLIC OF PANAMA PANAMA PANDEMIC RESPONSE AND GROWTH RECOVERY DEVELOPMENT POLICY LOAN TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. INTRODUCTION AND COUNTRY CONTEXT ...................................................................................6 2. MACROECONOMIC POLICY FRAMEWORK ....................................................................................9 2.1. RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ............................................................................................ 9 2.2. MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND DEBT SUSTAINABILITY ........................................................ 14 2.3. IMF RELATIONS ............................................................................................................................ 18 3. GOVERNMENT PROGRAM ........................................................................................................ 18 4. PROPOSED OPERATION ............................................................................................................ 20 4.1. LINK TO GOVERNMENT PROGRAM AND OPERATION DESCRIPTION .......................................... 20 4.2. PRIOR ACTIONS, RESULTS AND ANALYTICAL UNDERPINNINGS ................................................ 21 4.3. LINK TO CPF, OTHER BANK OPERATIONS AND THE WBG STRATEGY .......................................... 47 4.4. CONSULTATIONS AND COLLABORATION WITH DEVELOPMENT PARTNERS ............................... 49 5. OTHER DESIGN AND APPRAISAL ISSUES .................................................................................... 50 5.1. POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT .................................................................................................... 50 5.2. ENVIRONMENTAL, FORESTS, AND OTHER NATURAL RESOURCE ASPECTS ................................. 51 5.3. PFM, DISBURSEMENT AND AUDITING ASPECTS .......................................................................... 53 5.4. MONITORING, EVALUATION AND ACCOUNTABILITY .................................................................. 55 6. SUMMARY OF RISKS AND MITIGATION ..................................................................................... 56 ANNEX 1: POLICY AND RESULTS MATRIX .......................................................................................... 59 ANNEX 2: FUND RELATIONS ANNEX .................................................................................................. 67 ANNEX 3: LETTER OF DEVELOPMENT POLICY ..................................................................................... 70 ANNEX 4: ENVIRONMENT AND POVERTY/SOCIAL ANALYSIS TABLE .................................................. 76 ANNEX 5: THEORY OF CHANGE ......................................................................................................... 79 ANNEX 6: COUNTRY PROGRAM ADJUSTMENT RESPONDING TO COVID-19 ........................................ 82 Page 1 The Panama Pandemic Response and Growth Recovery Development Policy Loan was prepared by an IBRD team consisting of Rafael Barroso (Sr. Economist and Co-TTL, ELCMU), Barbara Cunha (Sr. Economist and Co-TTL, ELCMU), Monica Yanez-Pagans (Sr. Economist and Co-TTL, HLCED), Gaston Blanco (Sr. Social Protection Specialist, HLCSP), Javier Romero (Young Professional, ELCPV), Luz Carazo (Consultant, ELCPV), Garry Charlier (Lead Agriculture Specialist, SLCAG), Ramon Ernesto Arias (Agriculture Specialist, SLCAG), Mariano Gonzalez Serrano (Sr. Energy Specialist, ILCE1), Katharina Siegmann, (Environmental Specialist, SLCEN), Gabriela Alonso (Environmental Consultant, SLCEN), Kevin McCall, (Senior Environmental Specialist, SLCEN), Joanna Watkins (Sr. Public Sector Specialist, ELCG2), Marcela Rozo (Sr. Public Sector Specialist, ELCG2), Silvana
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