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Economic Policy Alicia Bárcena Executive Secretary Antonio Prado Deputy Executive Secretary Osvaldo Kacef Chief of the Economic Development Division Susana Malchik Officer-in-Charge Documents and Publications Division The Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean is an annual publication prepared by the Economic Development Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). This 2009 edition was prepared under the supervision of Osvaldo Kacef, Chief of the Division; Jürgen Weller was responsible for its overall coordination. In the preparation of this edition, the Economic Development Division was assisted by the Statistics and Economic Projections Division, the ECLAC subregional headquarters in Mexico and Trinidad and Tobago and the Commission’s country offices in Bogota, Brasilia, Buenos Aires, Montevideo and Washington, D.C. The regional analyses were prepared by the following experts (in the order in which the subjects are presented): Osvaldo Kacef, who was assisted by Rafael López Monti (introduction), Juan Pablo Jiménez (fiscal policy), Rodrigo Cárcamo (exchange-rate policy), Omar Bello (monetary policy), Sandra Manuelito (economic activity and investment and domestic prices), Jürgen Weller (employment and wages), Luis Felipe Jiménez and Sarah Mueller (external sector). The tables were produced by Claudio Aravena, Andrea Podestá and Claudia Roethlisberger, together with Ricardo Zapata, Sergio Saldaña, Myriam Urzúa and Asha Kambon. The country notes are based on studies conducted by the following experts: Dillon Alleyne (Guyana and Jamaica), Omar Bello (Plurinational State of Bolivia), Fernando Cantú (Ecuador), Rodrigo Cárcamo (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela), Stefan Edwards (Suriname), Álvaro Fuentes (Uruguay), Randolph Gilbert (Haiti), Michael Hendrickson (Bahamas and Belize), Daniel Heymann and Adrián Ramos (Argentina), Luis Felipe Jiménez (Chile), Beverly Lugay (Eastern Caribbean Currency Union), Roberto Machado (Trinidad and Tobago), Sandra Manuelito (Peru), Jorge Mattar and Indira Romero (Mexico), Juan Carlos Moreno (Panama), Sarah Mueller (Paraguay), Carlos Mussi (Brazil), Ramón Padilla (Costa Rica and Nicaragua), Igor Paunovic (Cuba and Honduras), Willard Phillips (Barbados), Juan Carlos Ramírez, Olga Lucía Acosta and María Alejandra Botiva (Colombia), Juan Carlos Rivas (Guatemala) and Francisco Villareal (Dominican Republic and El Salvador). Claudia Roethlisberger coordinated the notes on the Caribbean countries; the economic projections were produced by Claudio Aravena, Fernando Cantú and Sandra Manuelito, and Alejandra Acevedo, Vianka Aliaga, Leandro Cabello, Jazmín Chiu, Hans Fricke, Rafael López Monti and Karen Martínez were responsible for the processing and presentation of the statistical data and graphical presentations. Notes In this publication, the term “country” is used to refer to territorial entities, whether these are States as understood by international law and practice or simply territories for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis. The word “dollars” means United States dollars, unless otherwise specified. The following symbols have been used in the tables shown in the Preliminary Overview: Three dots (…) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported. A dash (-) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible. A point is used to indicate decimals. United Nations Publication ISBN: 978-92-1-323388-7 ISSN printed version: 1014-7810 ISSN online version: 1684-1387 LC/G.2424-P Sales No.: E.09.II.G.149 Copyright © United Nations, December 2009. All rights reserved Printed in Santiago, Chile Applications for the right to reproduce this work, either in whole or in part, should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, U.S.A. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and inform the United Nations of such reproduction. Preliminary Overview of the Economies of Latin America and the Caribbean • 2009 3 Contents Page Summary .............................................................................................................................................................. 9 Regional panorama ........................................................................................................................................... 11 Chapter I Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................... 13 A. The international context ............................................................................................................................... 14 B. Recent trends in the Latin American and Caribbean economies ................................................................... 17 1. Channels of transmission of the crisis ..................................................................................................... 18 2. The social effects of the crisis ................................................................................................................. 20 C. Macroeconomic policy .................................................................................................................................. 21 1. Fiscal policy ............................................................................................................................................ 22 2. Monetary and exchange-rate policy ........................................................................................................ 22 D. The recovery of the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean in the second half of 2009 ................ 24 E. Prospects, risks and challenges facing the region ......................................................................................... 26 1. Anticipated developments in the economies of Latin America and the Caribbean in 2010 .................... 26 2. Risks resulting from the external scenario .............................................................................................. 28 3. Challenges beyond the short term ........................................................................................................... 29 Chapter II Economic policy ................................................................................................................................................. 31 A. Fiscal policy .................................................................................................................................................. 31 B. Exchange-rate policy ..................................................................................................................................... 39 C. Monetary policy ............................................................................................................................................ 43 1. Bank loans and deposits .......................................................................................................................... 47 Chapter III Domestic performance ..................................................................................................................................... 49 A. Economic activity and investment ................................................................................................................. 49 B. Domestic prices ............................................................................................................................................ 55 C. Employment and wages ................................................................................................................................. 56 4 Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) Chapter IV The external sector ........................................................................................................................................... 61 A. Balance-of-payments current account ........................................................................................................... 61 1. Goods and services balance ..................................................................................................................... 62 2. International prices and terms of trade .................................................................................................... 65 3. The income and transfers balance ........................................................................................................... 66 B. The capital and financial account .................................................................................................................. 66 South America ................................................................................................................................................... 71 Argentina .............................................................................................................................................................. 73 Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela ........................................................................................................................ 76 Brazil .................................................................................................................................................................... 78 Chile ....................................................................................................................................................................
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