RUSSIAN ENERGY — 2015 Release — September 2016

CONTENTS

5 Macroeconomy 13 OIL

6 Economic growth in the leading economies 14 Countries with largest oil reserves 24 Russian petroleum products exports of the world to OECD countries 14 Russia’s share in the world oil reserves 7 Economic growth in Russia and leading world 25 World oil prices 15 Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia economies (quarterly data) 25 Petroleum products exchange trading in Russia 15 Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia 8 Monthly dynamics of industrial production (spimex) by region in Russia and leading industrial economies 25 Average motor fuel prices in Russia of the world 16 Top oil producing countries 26 Average gasoline (RON-92) prices in Russia 8 Main commodity prices (IMF indices) 16 Russia’s share in the world oil production by region 9 Dynamics of main exchange rates 17 Сrude oil production by leading Russian 27 Gasoline (RON-92) price change in Russia oil companies 10 Change in investments in fixed capital by region of Russia 18 Top oil consuming countries 28 Investment in Russian oil sector 10 External trade of Russia: exports and imports 18 Russia’s share in the world oil consumption 28 Percentage change in oil cector investment of goods, trade balance 19 Production and flaring of associated gas 10 Structure of Russian federal budget incomes in Russia and non-oil-and-gas federal budget deficit 19 Associated gas flaring by region 11 Energy intensity of Russian GDP according 19 Associated gas utilisation to different estimates 20 Countries with largest refining capacities 11 СO emissions in Russia and other countries 2 20 Russia’s share in the world refining capacity 21 Primary crude oil refining in Russia 21 Crude oil refining in Russia 22 Basic petroleum products output 22 Motor fuel output by emission standarts in Russia 22 Gasoline output structure in Russia 23 Petroleum products shipment in russian regions 24 Russian crude oil and petroleum products exports

Russian Energy — 2015 3 Russian Energy — 2015 4

29 Natural Gas 41 Coal 51 Petrochemicals

30 Countries with the largest natural gas reserves 42 Countries with largest coal reserves 52 Production of petrochemical feedstocks in Russia 30 Russia’s share in the world natural gas reserves 42 Top coal producing countries 52 Synthetic rubber production in Russia 31 Top natural gas producing couturiers 42 Russia’s share in the world coal production 52 Petrochemical feedstocks refining 31 Russia’s share in the world natural gas 43 Explored coal reserves in Russia by main basin production 53 Plastics production in primary forms in Russia 43 Coal production in Russia by main basin 32 The share of LNG in the world gas trade 53 Average annual producers prices of some 44 Coal production in Russia by region petrochemical products 32 Russia and other countries in world exports 44 Coal production and upgrading (at plants) of natural gas 54 International trade volumes of some in Russia by type petrochemical products 33 Russia`s largest natural gas fields: reserves 45 Russian investment in coal industry 54 Russian investments in petrochemical industry 34 Major producing gas fields in Russia 45 Largest coal producers in Russia 55 Change in polymers production and consumption 35 Natural gas in Russia: production, consumption 46 Top coal consuming countries in Russia and exports 46 Russia’s share in the world coal consumption 35 Russia’s natural gas production by region 47 Coal consumption in Russia 57 Electricity 36 Russia’s natural gas production by company 47 Average domestic coal prices in Russia 36 Independent gas producers in Russia 58 Installed capacity in Russia 48 Structure of Russia’s coal exports by destination 37 Russia`s natural gas consumption by sector 58 Additional power capacity in UES of Russia 49 Top coal exporting countries 37 Natural gas consumption in the top natural in 2014: total and by the Capacity Delivery gas consuming countries 49 World coal prices Agreement (CDA) 37 Investment for Russian regions gasification 49 Russia’s share in the world coal exports 59 Investments in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Russia 37 Russia’s gasification level 59 Change in investments in electricity in fixed 38 LNG production and exports in Russia capital of Russia 38 Share of Russia`s LNG exports by destination 60 Average electricity price by consumers 38 CNG consumption in road transport (nominal prices) 38 The world prices of natural gas 60 Electricity price for households exceeds the price for industry 39 Share of Russia`s natural gas exports by destination 61 Electricity consumption growth in the UES of Russia 61 Industrial Production Index in Russia and federal districs MACROECONOMY Global economic growth decelerated in 2015 because of a slowdown in big emerging economies but that gives a hope for stabilization or even reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 6

Economic growth in the leading economies of the world 2005-2015, % ch. y/y

In 2015 the global economy faced the new slowdown: its growth equaled rate only of 3.1%. That was the worst result since 2002, except the crisis of 2008‑2009. Growth rates in emerging economies are going down for the fifth consecutive year, while developed countries demonstrated in 2015 the most rapid upturn for the last 5 years.

The dynamics of developing countries was supported by India: for the first time in the XXI century India overcame China in terms of economic growth indicators, and that relation between the two economies will (most probably) remain stable, due to Chinese structural economic downturn. Brazil and Russia as commodity-dependent economies sharply stopped in 2015.

China Russia Germany France UK Italy Japan US Brazil India

15,0

10,0

5,0

-5,0

-10,0 Source: IMF Economic growth in Russia and leading world economies (quarterly data) 2013–2015, % ch. q/q, seasonally adjusted data

China 2,5 Economic growth in China in each quarter of 2015 was slightly 2,3 less than in the same quarter of 2014. But there were no 2,1 instant drops. Consequently annual growth went under 7 %. 1,9 Planned targets for 2016 are also set around this level. 1,7 1,5

ЕU-28 0,6 0,5 0,4 Low energy prices partially helped to maintain sustainable 0,3 0,2 growth in the USA (2.4 % as in the previous year) and in the 0,1 EU (almost 2 %, in 2014 it was 1.4 %) but their influence was 0 ambiguous: they had a negative impact on investments, so that the slowdown in US in late 2015 is partially US attributed to that effect. In addition, low energy prices strengthened the deflationary pressure, which constrained 1,2 economic activity in the developed countries. Moreover, the 0,9 0,6 acceleration of the economic growth in the EU was due to 0,3 the weakness of euro in 2015. 0 -0,3

Russia 1 The Russian economy went through a hard landing in 0 early 2015 but in the second half of the year the situation -1 stabilized. GDP fell by 3.7 % in 2015. The crisis was especially -2 sharp in manufacturing (–5.1 % of value added compared -3 to 2014), construction (–7.4 %) and trade (–10 %), while mining -4 (+1.1 %) and agriculture (+3.1 %) increased their value added I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV in real terms. 2013 2014 2015

Sources: World Bank, Eurostat

Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 7 Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 8

Monthly dynamics of industrial production in Russia and leading industrial economies of the world 2013-2015, Dec. 2012 = 100, seasonally adjusted data

According to World Bank, the growth of global The strength of the dollar in 2015 negatively Russian industry faced a collapse in early 2015 with The growth of industrial production in China industrial production in 2015 was at its bottom affected the US industry. An additional issue the easement in the second half of the year. Textile was uneven in the context of the slowdown rate since the crisis of 2008‑2009. was considered to be of problems was the & clothing industry and machinery manufacturing of external demand and internal investments. tough situation in oil and gas production. were among the worst performers: they experienced Ultimately it considerably fell: from 8.2 % in 2014 an essential drop in production by reached about to 6.2 % in 2015. 10 % in 2015. Food and chemicals industries, on the contrary, significantly grew (+2.0 % and +6,3 % respectively). Germany US Russia China 125 118 111 104 97 90 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015

Sources: World Bank, Rosstat

Main commodity prices (IMF indices) 2013–2015, Jan. 2013 = 100

agricultural raw materials metals food energy In 2015 commodity prices plunged under the influence of global economic Metal prices dropped too: IMF metals index slowdown. The most significant losses were spotted in the energy sector: fell dramatically by almost 30 % during 2015. IMF energy commodities index plummeted by 39 % during 2015. Coal Aluminum and lead kept stronger positions 120 demonstrated slightly better performance than other energy carriers: (prices fell only by 10‑20 %), while the most 110 it lost only 15‑30 % of price on different markets. considerable decrease in prices took place on 100 the markets for nickel and iron ore (–40‑45 %). 90 The decrease in food prices reached 15 % by the end of 2015 in comparison The latest developments contributed to a 80 to the beginning of the year. The sharpest decline was spotted on the 70 collapse of steel prices at LME and to a more or markets for meat (beef, pork, lamb cheapened by approximately 30 %) and 60 less strong price drops in markets for different certain grains (prices for wheat and soybean meal also fell by 30 %). World 50 kinds of rolled products. prices for sugar and fruits remained generally stable. Tea became more 40 30 expensive (by more than 40 %) because of a poor harvest in Kenya, which 2013 2014 2015 is considered to be key global supplier. Source: IMF Dynamics of main exchange rates 2013-2015

USD per euro After the rally of US dollar in the second half 1,5 of 2014, its exchange rate remained generally

1,4 stable and relatively high in 2015 amid the absence of sharp movements in the Fed policies 1,3 and the presence of low commodity prices. 1,2 The exchange rate of Russian ruble followed oil 1,1 prices, as expected. It strengthened in mid‑2015 1,0 and fell again afterwards. Nevertheless, despite even more significant fall of oil prices in 2015, Rubles per USD the exchange rate was kept at a level not weaker 80 than 70 rubles per 1 USD. 70 60 50 40 30 20

Pounds per USD 0,70

0,65

0,60

0,55

0,50

100 yen per USD 1,5

1,3

1,1

0,9

0,7

0,5 янв мар май июл сен ноя янв мар май июл сен ноя янв мар май июл сен ноя 2013 2014 2015 Source: Thomson Reuters

Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 9 Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 10

Change in investments in fixed capital Structure of Russian federal budget of Russia incomes and non-oil-and-gas federal 2015 to 2014 (without small enterprises and statistically unobservable investments) budget deficit The crisis of 2015 heavily damaged the investment climate in Russia: the decline was obvious already 2014-2015, trln rubles in 2014 but in 2015 its scope at least doubled. Unlike in 2014, decrease in investments strongly affected energy industries, especially power sector, which suffers from excess capacities. 1616 oiloil and and gas gas incomes incomes

Power sector and transports (including pipeline transportation) made the greatest contribution to the non-oilnon-oil and and gas gas incomes incomes 1414 drop in investments in the Russian economy (real estate and manufacturing — to a lesser degree). non-oilnon-oil deﬁcit deﬁcit

Extraction of energy resources demonstrated the rise in investments due to oil and LNG industries. 1212 Sharp decline of oil prices in 2015 inevitably led to the decrease in Russian federal budget incomes absolute change to 2014 per cent change, physical volume bln rubles (constant prices) % to 2014 1010 by 850 bln rubles. Non-oil-and-gas incomes grew thanks to VAT (because of a higher inflation rate)

8 8 and receipts from public assets (because of ruble Extraction of energy resources 218,3 10,7 devaluation and consequent growth of foreign Oil reﬁning –70,3 –13,2 6 6 assets in terms of rubles). Electricity, gas and heat –341,2 –29,1 The increase of non-oil-and-gas incomes gave Pipeline transportation –87,0 –11,4 4 4 an opportunity to raise budget expenses in 2015 by more than 770 bln rubles without any 2 2 aggravation of non-oil-and-gas deficit. Total (the whole economy) –1167,3 –10,2

Source: Rosstat 20142014 20152015 Source: The Ministry of Finance of Russia

External trade of Russia: exports and imports of goods, trade balance 2005-2015, bln USD

exports imports trade balance Further downsurge of energy prices in 2015 22 put Russian exports under pressure, while 600 20 the opportunities of import substitution were

500 18 restricted, and partially they were activated 16 400 already in 2014. Consequently, the worsening 14 of trade balance was inevitable in 2015. The 300 12 situation especially aggravated in the second 200 10 half of the year, following the new drop in 100 jan mar may jul sep nov jan mar may jul sep nov commodity prices. 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: World Bank Energy intensity of Russian GDP according to different estimates 2005-2015, toe / th. USD-2011 (PPP)

Different estimates simultaneously give BP IEA Rosstat evidence of the improvement of energy 0,24 efficiency in Russia in 2011‑2013 by almost 5 %. There is some controversy in later 0,23 data. Nevertheless, the crisis in 2014‑2015, 0,22 most probably, torpedoed the development of energy efficiency in Russia. 0,21

0,20

0,19

0,18 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: IEA, BP, Rosstat

СO2 emissions in Russia and other countries 2005-2015, bln t

In 2015 global CO2 emissions might be very close to their all-time peak. The growth of CO World EU China Russia US 2 emissions was only 0.1 %. The slowdown of the Chinese economy and the second consecutive year of coal consumption decline in China became significant factors this result. According

to BP, growth of CO2 emissions in China stopped in 2014, and in 2015 it became negative. It was

still insufficient to provide global CO2 emissions decrease but the progress is far more far more obvious.

Source: BP

Russian Energy — 2015. Macroeconomy 11

OIL Increase in crude oil and petroleum products exports in Russia was accompanied by primary crude oil refining reduction Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 14

Countries with largest oil reserves Russia’s share in the world 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, bln t oil reserves In 2010-2015 the split of the proven oil reserves 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, % didn’t change much. Venezuela still held the leadership after multiplying its four times 10 investigated reserves sine 2000 thanks to 8 heavy and extra heavy oil of Orinoco oil belt. 6

0 2000 2005 2010 2015

Venezuela Saudi Arabia Canada Iran Iraq Russia Kuwait UAE

Source: BP Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia 2000—2015, Mt

600 Crude oil and condensate production in Russia in 2015 increased by 8.2 Mt (+3.6 %), indicating a continuous growth in liquid hydrocarbon production 500 in the country since 2009 (on average by 1.3 % per year). 400 Nevertheless, oil production growth rates in Russia are decreasing 300 driven by gradual entering oil production plateau and increase in tight oil production share. 200

100

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013г 2014 2015

Сrude oil and condensate production in Russia by region 2000–2015, %

100 other Crude oil production in Ural Federal District continues to decrease (by 0.4 Mt Far East in 2015) but it still provides more than half of total Russian crude oil production North West (56.2 %). However, crude oil production decline rate stabilized at 1 % per year.

80 Siberia Crude oil production drop on mature fields in Ural Federal District is Volga compensated by rise in production in Volga Federal District (stable growth Ural throughout the whole reporting period due the to tax breaks and the application of enhanced oil recovery methods) and by expansion of greenfields 60 exploration in Siberian (by 1.7 Mt) and Far Eastern Federal Districts (by 3 Mt).

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Rosstat

Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 15 Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 16

Top oil producing countries Russia’s share in the world oil 2005–2015, Mt production In 2015, the world’s oil supply grew by 2,8 %. 2005–2015, % The Russia’s share in the global oil production continued to decrease despite the growth of the 14 overall production. In 2015, the USA fostered its 13 leadership in oil production, despite the fall of global market prices. Among the OPEC member 12 states, it was Iraq which came up with the 11 highest increase in oil production. 10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US Saudi Arabia Russia China Canada UAE Iran Iraq

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

Source: IEA Сrude oil production by leading Russian oil companies 2012–2015, Mt

2012 2013 2014 2015

200 190,6 189,2

150

100

87,2 85,7

61,4 61,6 50

31,6 34,3 26,3 27,2 15,5 19,9 8,9 7,4 Rosneft Lukoil Surgutneftegaz Gazprom Neft Tatneft Bashneft RussNeft

Three of seven leading Russian oil-producing companies decline in output: Rosneft (–1.7 Mt), RussNeft (–1.2 Mt) and LUKOIL (–0.9 Mt). The rest of the companies increased oil production with the largest absolute increase in Bashneft (+2 Mt) Source: CDU TEK

Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 17 Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 18

Top oil consuming countries Russia’s share in the world oil 2005–2015, Mt consumption In 2015, the overall global of oil consumption 2005–2015, % increased by 2 %, which was mainly made possible thanks to the plunging prices. The consumption 5 growth in developed countries was 1 %, whereas in 4 developing countries it was considerably higher — 3 2,3 % (mostly on the strength of the consumption growth in the Asian market). Russia’s share in the 2 world oil consumption decreased for the first time since 2009. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US China Japan Russia India Brazil Saudi Arabia

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Source: IEA Production and flaring of associated gas Associated gas utilisation in Russia 2000–2015, % 2000–2015, bcm The rate of associated gas utilisation in 2015 reached 88.2 % (+3 p. p. as compared with 2015) and exceeded all-time high of 1995 by 7.2 p. p. despite production ﬂaring the continuous growth in crude oil production. Resulting from legislative changes which encouraged encouraged investment in associated gas 80 utilization and processing).

Far Eastern Federal District demonstrated the highest rate of utilization (96.7 %) while the lowest rate was recorded in Northwestern Federal 60 District (62.2 %).

40 90 84

20 78 72 66 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Rosstat Source: Rosstat

Associated gas flaring by region 2008–2015, %

100 Оther Siberian Federal District is the leading region in terms of associated North West gas flaring volume (38.8 % of total Russian volume) passed ahead of 80 Volga the former leader — Ural Federal District (27.4 %) — in 2012. This shift is attributed to changes in geographical structure of crude oil production Ural (greenfields output growth with no prepared infrastructure for utilization) 60 Siberia and higher rate arrangements in mature oil-producing regions.

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Rosstat

Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 19 Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 20

Countries with largest Russia’s share in the world refining refining capacities capacity 2005–2015, Mt 2005–2015, %

In the years 2010-2014 the world’s refining 8 capacities continued to grow by 1‑2 % per year. 7 The major sources of this growth are in the Middle East and Asia. Russia’s share in the 6 global refining capacities continued as well. 5 At the same time in the EU refining industry experienced a durable reduction of capacities. 4 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US China ЕU Russia India Japan South Korea Saudi Arabia Brazil Iran

1000

800

600

400

200

Source: ВР Primary crude oil refining in Russia 2005–2015, Mt

350 Far East Crude oil refining in Russia in 2015 recorded 287.2 Mt, which is 7.2 Mt lower Ural than in the previous year (–2.4 %). The largest absolute decrease was 300 North West recorded in Volga Federal District — by 9.9 Mt (8.7 %). Nevertheless it is South still the leading crude oil refining region (35.9 % of total Russia crude oil 250 Siberia refining volume). The largest absolute increase was recorded in Southern Center (+1.8 Mt) and Ural (+1.7 Mt) Federal Districts. 200 Volga

150

100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Rosstat

Crude oil refining depth in Russia 2000–2015, %

75 Average refining depth in Russia in 2015 reached 74.1 % (+0.7 p. p. versus 2014) and exceeded all-time high of 2008 by 2 p. p. due to Russian refineries modernisation which is scheduled to be completed by 2020. 73

2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Rosstat

Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 21 Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 22

Basic petroleum products output in Russia 2000, 2005 and 2008–2015, Mt

Gasoline Diesel Heating Oil Basic petroleum products output in Russia in 2015 decreased by 7 Mt (–3.6 %). The fall was 80 mostly driven by heating oil output reduction — 6.8 Mt (–8.7 %). Diesel output declined by 1 Mt (1.3 %) while that of gasoline increased by 1 Mt. 60 The share of RON‑95 gasoline continues to grow (+12.7 p. p. during last five years). The share of Euro‑5 motor fuels has shown considerable rise: 40 up to 84.4% for gasoline and 73.2% for diesel.

2000 2005 2008 2015 2000 2005 2008 2015 2000 2005 2008 2015 Source: Rosstat

Motor fuel output by emission standarts in Russia Gasoline output structure 2011–2015, % in Russia 2010–2015, %

Euro 3 and below Euro 4 Euro 5 МON-76 (RON-80) RON-92 RON-95 RON-98

Gasoline Diesel 100

100 80

80 60 60 40 40

20 20

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Ministry of Energy Source: Rosstat Petroleum products shipment in Russian regions 2015, kt

Share of Federal District Individual regions Gasoline shipment Diesel shipment Heating oil shipment in total Russia output performance Gasoline Diesel Heating oil Moscow Oblast 3815 2350 176 Center 26,8% 23,4% 4,1% Yaroslavl Oblast 187 565 231 Moscow 1521 1163 289

Komi Republic 148 562 98 North Leningrad Oblast 1318 881 4410 11,0% 11,8% 32,4% West Murmansk Oblast 152 346 1323 St. Petersburg 1113 987 679

Krasnodar Krai 1237 3832 6996 South 9,9% 14,5% 33,9% Volgograd Oblast 678 488 28 Rostov Oblast 1008 573 360

Republic of Dagestan 238 18 0 North Caucasus 3,1% 0,8% 0% Republic of North Ossetia-Alania 80 36 0 Stavropol Krai 593 212 0

Republic of Bashkortostan 1334 814 413 Republic of Tatarstan 1081 1453 336 Volga 21,7% 17,7% 5,3% Nizhny Novgorod Oblast 927 562 73 Samara Oblast 1677 1603 165

Sverdlovsk Oblast 1096 646 112 Ural 9,0% 10,8% 0,8% Tyumen (exclusive of autonomous okrugs) 581 1526 6 Chelyabinsk Oblast 728 521 19

Krasnoyarsk Krai 795 869 227 Irkutsk Oblast 654 980 363 Siberia 13,4% 14,5% 5,3% Kemerovo Oblast 614 1256 300 Novosibirsk Oblast 767 434 35 Omsk Oblast 458 505 111

Far Primorsk Krai 467 516 2488 4,2% 6,2% 18,2% East Khabarovsk Krai 736 1201 1286

Crimea 0,9% 0,3% 0% Republic of Crimea 316 99 4

Source: Rosstat

Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 23 Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 24

Russian crude oil and petroleum Russian petroleum products exports products exports to OECD countries 2000–2015, Mt 2005–2015, Mt

Russian crude oil exports oil exports recorded the first growth since 2009 and In 2015, the export of oil to the OECD countries increased again. The growth was supported amounted to 244.5 Mt (+21.1 Mt versus 2014). Exports of petroleum products also by the demand for motor gasoline, diesel oil and fuel oil, whereas the naphtha shipment increased by 6.7 Mt and amounted to 171.5 Mt. Crude oil (90.6 %) and petroleum to OECD countries fell. products (95.2 %) from Russia almost entirely went to far-abroad countries.

Far-abroad countries CIS countries 5,0 Other 70 petrolium products Russian crude oil exports 60 300 27,7 Fuel oil

50 250

40 200

30 25,6 Diesel 1150 fuel

1,3 Kerosene 1100 20 4,0 Gasoline 50 10 12,4 Naphtha

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Russian petroleum products exports Russia's share in OECD countries imports of petroleum products 2000-2015, % 200 15

1150 13

11 1100 9 50 7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Rosstat Source: IEA World oil prices Average motor fuel prices 2005–2015, $/bbl in Russia In 2015, the increasing oversupply in the global oil by doing that, they could have maintained higher Jan 2011 – Jan 2016, rubles/l market brought down prices more than by half. Fearful global prices. Meanwhile, the oil producers in the USA, of the loss of their market share, the OPEC member Canada and some other countries proved to be more Gasoline prices increased in January 2016 on average by 1.6 rubles (year- states refused to reduce their production, although resilient, than expected, towards low prices. on-year) or by 4.7 %. RON‑95 gasoline showed the highest price growth — by 1.65 rubles. Diesel prices increased by 1.07 ruble (+3.1 %).

Brent WTI Urals OPEC oil basket MON-76 (RON-80) RON-92 (RON-93)

120 RON-95 and above Diesel

40 100

80 30

60 25

40 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Source: Thomson Reuters Source: Rosstat

In 2015 SPIMEX demonstrated the first annual drop in petroleum products Petroleum products exchange trading in Russia exchange trading performance since its launch in 2008. Turnover and trading volumes amounted to 496 mln rubles (–25 mln rubles versus 2014) (SPIMEX) and 15.9 Mt (–1.5 Mt) respectively, while the number of contracts recorded 2008–2015 101,500 units. This results from the stagnation of domestic motor fuels market and ruble devaluation. The leading exchange market participants Turnover, Volume, Number of contracts, include Rosneft (33.3 % of total sales), Gazprom Neft (16.2 %), LUKOIL mln rubles mln t 1,000 units (12.3 %) Gazprom (11.3 %) and Surgutneftegaz (10.2 %). RON‑92 gasoline, 600 20 120 summer diesel and RON‑95 gasoline account for substantial volumes of exchange trading in petroleum products — 29.7 %, 18.2 % and 12.4 % 400 80 respectively. 10 200 40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SPIMEX

Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 25 Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 26

Refining Capacity Average gasoline (RON-92) prices in Russia by region mtpy 2015, rubles/l

1 Omsk 2 Kirishi 3 Ryazan 4 Kstovo 5 Yaroslavl 6 Moscow 7 Perm 8 Volgograd 9 Angarsk 10, 14, 18 Ufa 11 Syzran 12 Novokuybyshevsk

13 Komsomolsk-on-Amur 2

15 Tyumen 25 16 Salavat 5 17 Achinsk 6 19 Nizhnekamsk 3 20 Samara 4 7 21 Saratov 19 21 20 27 11 12 16 22 Orsk 26 8 18 24 10 23 Khabarovsk 14 15 24 Tuapse 22

25 Ukhta 1 17 26 Krasnodar 13 23

27 Novoshakhtinsk 9

<5 5–10 10–15 15–20 >20 30 32 34 38 45 50 55 Source: Rosstat Refining Capacity Gasoline (RON-92) price change in Russia by region mtpy January 2015 – January 2016, %

1 Omsk 2 Kirishi 3 Ryazan 4 Kstovo 5 Yaroslavl 6 Moscow 7 Perm 8 Volgograd 9 Angarsk 10, 14, 18 Ufa 11 Syzran 12 Novokuybyshevsk 13 Komsomolsk-on-Amur 2 15 Tyumen 25 16 Salavat 5 17 Achinsk 6

19 Nizhnekamsk 3 20 Samara 4 7 21 Saratov 19 21 20 27 11 12 16 22 Orsk 26 8 18 24 10 23 Khabarovsk 14 15 24 Tuapse 22

25 Ukhta 1 17 26 Krasnodar 13 23

27 Novoshakhtinsk 9

<5 5–10 10–15 15–20 >20 –6 0 5 7 9 11 15 17 Source: Rosstat

Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 27 Russian Energy — 2015. Oil 28

Investment in Russian oil sector 2010–2015 , bln rubles

Crude oil Petroleum Crude oil transport Investment in Russian oil sector in 2015 production products output by pipeline exceeded the level of 2014, but the growth was fueled only by crude oil production 1500 (+342.1 bln rubles), while investment in petroleum products output and pipeline 1200 transportation of crude oil decreased by 8.8

900 and 14.9 bln rubles respectively. This results mostly from significant ruble devaluation: drop 600 in ruble costs of crude oil production and rise in dollar costs of imported equipment needed for 300 refineries modernization.

Percentage change in oil sector investment 2011–2015 (year-on-year), %

Crude oil Petroleum Crude oil transport production products output by pipeline

−10

−20 Source: Rosstat NATURAL GAS Russia in 2015: decrease in production and domestic consumption and increase in exports Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 30

Countries with the largest natural gas reserves Russia’s share in the world natural 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, tcm gas reserves As new gas fields had been discovered in Iran, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, % Turkmenistan and USA, Russia’s share in the world gas reserves has significantly shrank in 20,0

2005-2015, although it slowly went up from 2011 19,5 to 2015. 19,0

18,5

18,0 2000 2005 2010 2015

Iran Russia Qatar Turkmenistan US Saudi Arabia UAE Venezuela Nigeria

Source: BP Top natural gas producing countries Russia’s share in the world natural 2005-2015, bcm gas production Russia’s share in global gas production fell due 2005-2015, % to the increase in gas production in the USA, Qatar and Iran. In 2012, it lost its lead in gas 25 production to the USA, where the increase was 23 provided thanks to the shale gas. China has also 21 increased its annual gas production, having 19 overtaken Norway in 2013. Iran overtook Qatar in 17 gas production in 2014. 15 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

US Russia Qatar Iran Canada China Norway

800

700 600

500 400

300 200

100

Source: BP

Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 31 Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 32

The share of LNG in Russia and other countries in world the world gas trade exports of natural gas 2005-2014, % 2005-2014, bcm

35 800

700 15

600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: IEA 187,9 Russia

500

400 118,9 Qatar

300 106,6 Norway

200 77,9 Canada

59,3 Netherlands 100 44,8 Algeria

56,8 Turkmenistan

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: IEA Russia`s largest natural gas fields: reserves 2015, bcm

In 2015 Russia`s natural gas reserves (ABC 1) amount to 50.2 tcm, which is one percent more than in 2014. The largest gas fields are located in Western Siberia oil and gas bearing province. The growth in gas reserves was provided by gas fields in the Yamal Peninsula (Bovanenkovo, Kharasaveyskoye, Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye), Eastern Siberia (Kovyktinskoye), Russian Far East (Chayandinskoye) and on the Arctic Shelf (Shtokman, Kruzenshternskoye). In European Russia the main gas reserves are concentrated in Astrakhan field and Orenburg field.

5333 Urengoy 4304 Bovanenkovo Kharasaveyskoye Severo-Tambeyskoye Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye Kruzenshternskoye 3939 Shtokman Bovanenkovo 3109 Yamburg 3087 Astrakhan 2353 Zapolyarnoye Shtokman Yamburg 1563 Kovyktinskoye Kharasaveyskoye Medvezhye 1422 Urengoy 1349 Kruzenshternskoye Zapolyarnoye Yuzhno-Russkoye 1003 Yuzhno-Tambeyskoye 862 Yuzhno-Russkoye Kharampur 862 Severo-Tambeyskoye Chayandinskoye 814 Kharampur Orenburg Astrakhan 708 Chayandinskoye Orenburg 664 Kovyktinskoye 564 Medvezhye

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation

Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 33 Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 34

Major producing gas fields in Russia 2013-2014, bcm

About 80 % of Russia`s natural gas production is carried out in the Nadym-Pur-Taz region, Yamalo-Nenets AO. In 2014, three gas fields — Zapolyarnoye, Urengoy, Yamburg — accounted for more than 40 % of country`s gas production.

In 2012, gas production was started at the Bovanenkovo field (Yamal Peninsula), and it accounted 42.8 bcm in 2014. It is expected that to 2020 Bovanenkovo will be the largest gas producing field in Russia. Positive production dynamics also featured on Yurkharovskoye field and Beregovoye field. Bovanenkovo

2013 2014 97,9 Zapolyarnoye 117,5 Yamburg 85,5 Urengoy Yurkharovskoye 90,6 Medvezhye Urengoy 62,8 Yamburg Beregovoye 75,3 Zapolyarnoye Yuzhno-Russkoye 42,8 Bovanenkovo 22,8 39,0 Yurkharovskoye 38,4 25,0 Yuzhno-Russkoye 25,1 16,6 Lunskoye 16,4 16,3 Orenburg Lunskoye 16,9 Orenburg Astrakhan 11,2 Beregovoye 10,8 11,1 Astrakhan 11,7 10,4 Medvezhye 12,2 Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation Natural gas in Russia: production, consumption and exports 2011-2015, bcm

production domestic consumption export In 2015, Russia`s natural gas and associated petroleum gas production amounted to 633.4 bcm, which is 0.9 % less than in 2014. The decrease was caused by significant reduction of natural gas consumption in Russia. In 2010‑2015, the gas supply to the domestic market decreased by 24.8 bcm, or by 5.3 %. 669 201 668 211 653 194 640 187 633 200 In 2015, Russia`s natural gas exports increased by 7.1 % year on year to 200 bcm. Natural gas imports of the major importers of Russian gas remained relatively stable. A significant decrease was recorded in supplies to the Ukraine. 470 460 457 458 444

Source: Rosstat, Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Russia’s natural gas production by region In 2015, 79.2 % of natural gas production in Russia was provided by Yamalo-Nenets AO, which is 1.1 pp lower than in 2014. In 2010‑2014, YNAO share in Russia`s gas production was 80‑83 %. In 2015 to 2015, bcm 2014 gas production significantly increased in Krasnoyarsk region and Sakha. The largest drop was observed in YNAO (–2 %, or –11.6 bcm).

501 33 28 20 11 41

Yamalo-Nenets Khanty-Mansi Sakhalin Orenburg Krasnoyarsk Others

Source: Rosstat

Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 35 Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 36

Russia’s natural gas production by company 2014-2015, bcm

Russia`s largest natural gas producer is Gazprom, which Independent gas producers increased production volumes. 2014-2015, % provided 64.1 % of country`s gas production in 2015, and Leaders are Rosneft and Arktikgaz. 67.5 % in 2014. There is a tendency for an increase in the 2014 2015 share of independent gas producers in Russia: from 16 % in 2007 to 36 % in 2015. Gazprom 67,5 64,1

2014 2015

Gazprom 432 406 Others 32,5 35,9 Others 208 229 Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Independent gas producers in Russia Production, 2012-2015, bcm

66,0 68,8

51,6 52,0 42,3

23,6 17 17,0 18,8 12,5 12,2 7,9 9,5 1,7 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2014 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015

Novatek Rosneft Lukoil Gazprom Neft Surgutneftegaz Arktikgaz Others

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation, CDU TEK Russia`s natural gas consumption by sector Investment for Russian regions 2014, mtce gasification In 2014, the production of electricity and heat energy provided 48.3 % of Russia`s natural gas consumption, which 2011–2015, bln rubles is 3.5 pp less than in 2013. Gas consumption decreased by 6.4 % in these two sectors, by 2,2 % in industry and increased by 0.1 % in residential sector. In 2015, investments for Russian regions gasification decreased by 4 %, and Russia’s gasification level increased by 0.3 pp compared with 2014 and reached 65.7 %. The main reason is the increase in gas debts.

Electricity Residential 33,7 33,9 58,9 261,9 production 29,0 28,8 27,6

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation Gas transportation 35,8 542 Russia’s gasification level 2011–2015, % Others 119,6 66,0 Industry 63,2 64,4 65,1 65,4 65,7

Source: Rosstat Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Natural gas consumption in the top natural gas consuming countries 2005-2015, bcm

US EU Russia Iran China Japan Canada Over the last decade, the demand for gas in Russia ncreased at a slower rate in comparison with the global one. In the USA, the increase of 800 consumption of shale gas has squeezed the coal out of the domestic market into the global one, which has led to the shrinking shares of other 600 gas suppliers elsewhere. In 2015, overall demand for gas in the European 400 Union exceeded Russia’s domestic gas consumption.

200

Source: BP

Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 37 Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 38

LNG production and exports in Russia CNG consumption in road transport 2009-2015, bcm 2008-2015, bcm

Russia`s LNG production and exports is carried out on single plant on Sakhalin Island, with Russia`s CNG consumption is 450 mcm, or about one percent of the world total. a capacity of 9.6 mtpa. LNG is exported by sea to the Asia-Pacific countries, mainly to Japan. The natural gas consumption in transport is a priority of Russia`s gas industry development. State subsidies for regions are aimed to stimulate the growth of CNG There are LNG plants projects in Russia. The plant on the Yamal Peninsula is under construction, consumption. Gazprom plays the main role in development of the Russian NGV market. with an installed capacity of 16.5 mtpa, start at 2017‑2018. It is also planned to implement projects Other participants are Rosneft and Novatek. in Vladivostok and the Baltic Sea (Gazprom) and Sakhalin Island (Rosneft).

In 2015, Russia’s share in the global LNG market was 4 %. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

World 21,3 25,6 30,4 35,0 36,9 39,3 n/a n/a 14,4 14,8 14,5 14,4 14,5 13,4 Russia 0,34 0,33 0,35 0,37 0,39 0,40 0,41 0,45

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, IEA

6,6

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 The world prices of natural gas 2005-2015, $/1000 cubic meters Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Europe (Russian gas) Japan US (Henry Hub)

700 Share of Russia`s LNG exports by destination 500 2014-2015, % 300 100

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

70% 25% 2% 2% 1% In 2015, the gas price in the major markets fell by 30‑40 % compared to the previous 79% 18% 1% 1% 1% year. The causes for the falling gas prices were decreasing oil prices, warm winters in the USA and Europe and fierce competition inside the industry — with other gas Japan Republic Taiwan China Others producers, as well as competition with producers of other energy resources, such as of Korea coal and renewable ones.

Source: Sakhalin Energy Source: IMF Russia`s natural gas exports by destination 2013-2015, bcm

42,7 Germany

40 40,0 Others

27,0 Turkey

23,8 Italy

20 18,8 Belarus

11,2 United Kingdom 10,1 Japan 10 9,7 France In recent years, Russia`s gas exports by regions has not changed 9,2 Kazakhstan significantly: European countries were the main customers. In 2009, 7,8 Ukraine Russia started to export LNG to Asia-Pacific, mainly to Japan. In 2015, LNG exports was about 7 % of total Russian gas exports.

0 2013 2014 2015 Source: Federal Customs Service of Russia, Sakhalin Energy

Russian Energy — 2015. Natural Gas 39

COAL Amid worsening export conditions coal production in Russia was supported by a slight growth of domestic demand

Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 42

Countries with largest coal reserves Russia’s share in the world coal 2015, bln t production Russia holds the second place in coal reserves 2005-2014, % in the world (after US). It possesses around 18 % 5 of world reserves.

4 US 26,6% 237,3 3

157,0 Russia 17,6% 2 114,5 China 12,8% 1 76,4 Australia 8,6% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 India 6,8% Russia maintained its 6th rank among top coal producing counties with a 60,6 share of 4,5% of world total. 40,5 Germany 4,5% Source: IEA 33,9 Ukraine 3,8%

Source: BP

In 2014 for the first time since the beginning of the century large-scale closure of coal mines. India actively expanded Top coal producing countries world production of coal decreased (by less than 1 %). coal production with the focus on domestic market (energy 2005-2014, mln t Considerable reduction of coal production took place in poverty reduction) and Australia with the focus on external China. China is optimising its coal industry which leads to market (expansion of market share).

China US India Australia Indonesia Russia South Africa

4000

3000

2000

1000

Source: IEA Explored coal reserves in Russia Coal production in Russia by main basin by main basin 01.01.2015, bln t 2010-2015, mln t

There are 22 coal basins and 129 coal deposits in Russia. The geographic In 2015 coal production in Russia reached 373 mln t, which is 4 % higher distribution of coal reserves is enequal. Over two thirds of proven reserves than in 2014. 72 % of coal was produced at open-pit mines (in the last few are concentrated within two basins: Kansk-Achinsk basin in Krasnoyarsk years this share was quite stable). Krai and Kemerovo Oblast (brown coal) and Kuznetsk basin in Kemerovo Oblast (hard coal). In 2014 explored coal reserves in Russia increased by The rise of coal production was observed in all largest basins (Kuznetsk 0,5 %. basin (+2 %), Kansk-Achinsk basin (+6 %), Pechora basin (+11 %)) with the exception of Donets basin (–11 %%). Kuznetsk coal basin remains the 79,3 Kansk-Achinsk Basin 40,7% center of Russian coal production (58 % of total). 53,4 Kuznetsk Basin 27,4% Kuznetsk Kansk-Achinsk Pechora Donets Other 7,6 Irkutsk Basin 3,9% Basin Basin Basin Basin 250 7,2 Pechora Basin 3,7% 200 6,5 Donets Basin 3,3% 150 South Yakutia Basin 2,6% 5,0 Pechora Basin 100 Minusinsk Basin 2,3% 4,5 50 31,5 Оther 16,2%

Donets Basin

South Yakutia Basin

Kansk-Achinsk Basin Kuznetsk Basin Minusinsk Basin

Irkutsk Basin

Source: Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of the Russian Federation

Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 43 Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 44

Coal production in Russia by region 2010-2015, %

Coal production in Russia in concentrated in Siberian Krasnoyarsk Krai (11 %) and Zabaykalsky Krai (5 %). In the Federal District (84 % of the total). The largest coal Far East coal production is notable in Sakha (Yakutia) producing federal subjects of the Russian Federation Republic (4 % of the total) and in the North-West in Komi are situated there: Kemerovo Oblast (58 % of the total), Republic (4 %).

Siberia Far East North West Other 2010 83,6 9,9 4,2 2,3 2011 83,9 9,6 4,0 2,5 2012 83,8 9,9 3,8 2,5 2013 84,5 9,4 4,0 2,1 2014 84,5 9,5 3,7 2,3 2015 83,5 10,8 3,9 1,8

Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Coal production and upgrading (at plants) in Russia by type 2005-2015, mln t

Coking coal production Upgrading of coking coal Steam coal production* Upgrading of steam coal* Russia produces predominantly hard coal (over

300 80 % of the total in 2015). A share of coking coal in total production made up 23 %. 250 Almost all coking coal in Russia is upgraded,

200 upgrading level of steam coal is only 28 %. Still in 2015 the latter grew (+5,9 mln t) while the 150 former fell slightly (–0,3 mln t). Total volume of coal processing in Russia (including mechanical 100 sorting) reached 178,3 mln t (+3 %).

* with import 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Ugol Magazine Russian investment in coal industry 2010-2015, bln rubles

Hard coal Brown coal Investment in Russian coal industry goes predominantly to hard coal (up to 95 % of the 150 total). In 2015 it decreased again — to 70,1 bln rubles. From 2012 to 2015 investment to 120 coal industry fell by almost 45 %. Financial restrictions continued to constrain realization of investment programs of Russian companies. 90 Still the decline rate slowed to 6 %.

60 66,3 55,9

2,0 3,7 Source: Federal State Statistics Service

Largest coal producers in Russia 2014-2015, mln t

Russian coal industry is dominated by large coal 100 98,9 97,8 mining and iron and steel holding companies. Top‑10 companies contributed to around 58 % 80 of total industry production. Almost all of them managed to increase production in 2015 with the exception of industry leaders. Largest 60 producer of thermal coal JSC «SUEK» and largest producer of metallurgical coal «Evraz» 44,5 44,5 40 decreased production slightly. 29,7 30,0 20 23,2 23,2 21,8 20,6 13,6 14,4 11,4 13,2 12,1 13,0 10,8 10,9 10,6 11,0

JSC «SUEK» JSC «Coal Company JSC Holding Company JSC «Mechel Mining» «Evraz» JSC «Russian Coal» JSC «VorkutaUgol» Company «Vostsibugol» Sibuglemet Holding LLC JSC «Kuzbasskaya «Kuzbassrazrezugol» «SDS-Ugol» LLC (En+ Group) Toplivnaya Company» Source: Ugol Magazine

Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 45 Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 46

Top coal consuming countries Russia’s share in the world coal 2005-2014, mln t consumption Coal remains the second largest energy demand dynamics. Coal demand contraction 2005-2014, % source in the world (after oil). Its share in total in China was influenced by several factors: primary energy consumption amounts to 30 %. economic slowdown, structural transformation, 5 In 2014 consumption of coal in the world fell lowering energy intensity of GDP, energy 4 (by approximately 1 %) breaking upward trend balance diversification and climate policy since 2000. It was the result of lower demand developments. With active spread of coal 3 for steam coal alongside with higher demand for generation India in 2014 surpassed US and coking coal (but the share of the latter in total became the second largest coal consumer in 2 coal consumption was only 13 %). the world. Coal prospects in US are constrained 1 by shale revolution and strengthening of climate China (49 % of coal consumption in the world) policy. made the largest contribution to negative 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Russia continued to rank 5th among top coal consuming countries with a share of 2,5 % of world total.

Source: IEA

China India US Germany Russia Japan South Africa

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0 Source: IEA Coal consumption in Russia Average domestic coal prices 2005-2015, mln t (supply to domestic market and imports) in Russia 2005-2015, rubles/t In 2015 coal consumption in Russia demonstrated a slight growth — up to 197,5 mln t (+1,3 % as compared with 2014). Russian companies increased coal supplies to domestic In 2015 average domestic coal prices in Russia grew (on the background market up to 174,6 mln t (+3 %) so that it accounted for 54 % of total supplies of Russian of ruble depreciation to US dollar). Steam coal prices increased by 4 % coal. Russian coal imports (mainly from Kazakhstan — 96 %) fell by 9 %. Imports and coking coal prices — by 31 %. contribution to coal consumption continued to decrease as well. In 2015 it didn’t exceed 12 %. Electricity power industry is the largest consumer of coal in Russia. It supported Steam coal Coking coal consumption growth: power stations expanded purchases of coal by 7 %. Among 8000 other large consumers are coking plants (–9 % of demand) and population (demand unchanged). 7000

6000 250

5000

200 4000 23,9 Other*

3000 150 23,4 Supplies to population 36,0 Coking plants 2000

100 1000

114,2 Power plants 50 2005 2006 2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Federal State Statistics Service

12 11,6 Imports share in consumption 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

* Iron and Steel Industry, Cement Industry, Russian Railways, etc.

Source: CDU TEK

Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 47 Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 48

Structure of Russia’s coal exports by destination 2014-2015, mln t, total (hard coal (98 % of the total) and brown coal (2 %))

37,9 Other

21,7 South Korea

17,2 UK 16,4 China 16,2 Japan 15

Structure of Russian coal exports was supplies to South Korea (+26 %) which significantly affected by the contraction made this country the principal destination 10 10,2 Netherlands 9,8 Turkey of purchases from China. In 2014 China of Russian coal exports in 2015. Besides 9,0 Ukraine used to be the principal destination. In Russia increased coal exports to Japan 6,6 Taiwan 2015 export of coal from Russia to China (+8 %) and Netherlands (+33 %). 6,5 Germany fell by almost 40 %. UK, the second Russian export of coal is dominated by 5 principal destination (in terms of volume) 4,7 Poland steam coal (87 % of the total). in 2014, cut purchases as well (–29 %). Is was partially compensated by increased

Source: Federal Customs Service of Russia

2014 2015 Top coal exporting countries Russia’s share in the world 2005-2014, mln t coal exports In 2014 international coal trade continued to grow though with a slower pace (less than 1 %). 2005-2014, % Indonesia maintained its position as the largest exporter of coal in the world (in terms of physical tonnes) with a share of 30 %. At the same time in terms of energy content it was overtaken Russia held the 3rd position among top coal exporting countries with by Australia. a share of 11 % of world total.

15 Indonesia Australia Russia US Colombia South Africa Canada 13 500 11 400

300 9

200 7

100

0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: IEA Source: IEA

World coal prices 2005-2015, $/t

US Central Appalachian coal spot price index Northwest Europe marker price Asian marker price The drop of coal prices observed from 2011 continued in 2015. Excess supply Japan steam coal import CIF price Japan coking coal import CIF price and China’s weakening demand put downward pressure on coal prices in the world. For example, coal prices in Japan (either for coking or for steam 250 coal) lost 18 % in 2015. Regional coal prices almost converged in 2014 so that «Asian premium» diminished. In 2015 marker coal prices in Asia, Europe and Northern America fell correspondingly by 19 %, 25 % and 22 %. 200

150

100

50 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: BP

Russian Energy — 2015. Coal 49

PETROCHEMICALS In 2015 there was increase in production and decline in imports of basic polymers in Russia Russian Energy — 2015. Petrochemicals 52

Production of petrochemical feedstocks Petrochemical feedstocks in Russia refining 2011-2015, mln t 2011-2015, mln t

Production and refining of petrochemical feedstocks in Russia grew in 2015, especially naphta. 12

LPG production Naphta production Ethane production 10 0,8 0,7 16,0 0,8 13,9 0,7 8 0,7 13,1 12,1 11,2 26,0 27,3 22,6 20,0 6 19,1 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

Synthetic rubber production in Russia

2010-2015, mln t

1,5 1,5 After previous year decrease synthetic rubber production grew 9 % 1,4 1,4 1,4 in 2015, although not achieving 2013 level. Such stagnation is caused by 1,3 international rubber market fierce competition and decline in Russian automobile industry.

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Rosstat Plastics production in primary Average annual producers prices forms in Russia of some petrochemical products 2010-2015, mln t 2012-2015, thousand rubles/t

Plastics in primary forms production in Russia demonstrated a 13% growth in 2015. The highest increase Prices of petrochemical products grew 15-30% in 2015, which is also due to (23 %) appeared in polypropylene production (also showed significant export growth). This is due to the export reorientation and domestic supply decrease. positive impact of ruble devaluation and a few big projects implemented in the industry lately.

Synthetic rubber Polymers of styrene 8 Polymers of ethylene Polypropylene Polymers of vinyl chloride or halogenated oleﬁns

100 7

1,3 Polymers of propylene 80 and other oleﬁns 6

60 0,8 Polymers of vinyl chloride or other halogenated 5 oleﬁns 40 0,5 Polymers of styrene

4 2012 2013 2014 2015

1,8 Polymers of ethylene Source: Rosstat

2,7 Plastics in primary forms, other 1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Rosstat

Russian Energy — 2015. Petrochemicals 53 Russian Energy — 2015. Petrochemicals 54

International trade volumes of some Russian investments in petrochemical products petrochemical industry 2007-2014, bln USD 2010-2015, bln rubles

International trade of polymers of ethylene growth continued in 2014 — 4 % to 87 bln USD, while other In 2015 investment in Russian petrochemical industry increased by 22 % main traded petrochemical products showed decline or stagnation. as compared with 2014 and totaled 169 bln rubles.

200

169

138 123 125 150 21,9 Synthetic rubber 97

20,0 Polymers of vinyl chloride or halogenated oleﬁns 54

100 25,4 Polymers of styrene

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation

50 87,3 Polymers of ethylene

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: UNCTAD Change in polymers production and consumption in Russia 2014-2015, kt and %

In Russian petrochemical industry a trend of import substitution polyethylene and polystyrene). Nevertheless import dependance is evolving. In 2015 Russia continued to reduce imports of large- for certain items is still considerable. Synthetic Rubber production tonnage polymers and to raise their exports (with the exeption of stays most export-oriented.

Polymers of styrene Polymers of vinyl chloride Polymers of propylene Polymers of ethylene Synthetic rubber or other halogenated oleﬁns and other oleﬁns

2500

2000 3% estimated consumption

12% production

1500 9% production 23% production

3% estimated –12% estimated consumption 1000 consumption 13% export 19% production

−6% estimated consumption −21% import 2% estimated 500 0% production consumption 107% export −4% export −48% import −33% import −10% import −19% export 93% export −3% import

2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015 2014 2015

Source: Federal State Statistics Service of the Russian Federation, Federal Customs Service of Russia

Russian Energy — 2015. Petrochemicals 55

ELECTRICITY Total electricity consumption in Russia decreased by 0.4% in 2015 Russian Energy — 2015. Electricity 58

Installed capacity in Russia 2008-2015, GW

300 Net additional capacity in the UES of Russia amounted to 2.9 GW in 2015 (growth of 1 % Russia, total 250 251 to 2014), from 2008 to 2015‑24.7 GW (11.7 %). 27 UES of Russia, Compared to previous years, the rate of capacity 200 nuclear energy growth is slowed down. 48 UES of Russia, 150 hydropower

100 160 UES of Russia, fuel energy 50

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Rosstat, SO-UPS

Additional power capacity in UES of Russia in 2014: total and by the Capacity Delivery Agreement (CDA) 2008-2015, GW

except CDA CDA

8 The installed capacity of power plants of UES 5,0 of Russia in 2015 grew mainly due to fuel power by the Capacity Delivery Agreement (62 % of all 6 2,9 entries), the rest of the growth was provided by nuclearpower (0,9 GW) other fuel power, 4,1 2,9 hydropower and RES 4 2,7 3,3 2,9 2,6 2 1,8 1,2 1,3 1,0 0,5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SO-UPS Investments in generation, transmission and distribution of electricity in Russia** 2010-2015, bln rubles

1 000 distribution and trade transmission 75 102 generation 800 144 264 102 298 282 69 266 600 73 203 186 525 466 400 406 382 406 346

200 * 2010‑2013 — data does not include Crimean FD, 2014‑2015 — included Crimean FD ** Investments in fixed capital without small enterprises and statistically unobservable investments

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Rosstat

Change in investments in electricity in fixed capital of Russia 2015 in comparison to 2014*

2015-2014, 2015/2014, Noticeably decrease in investment in electricity: in addition to the economic crisis, the bln rubels % decline in investment can be explained by a decrease of the intensity of CDA program. Also the excess supply of capacity impacted on dynamics of investments. Generation, transmission and distribution of electricity –228 –25,2

Generation –124 –23

Transmission –95 –32

* Investments in fixed capital without small enterprises and statistically unobservable Distribution and trade –24 –12 Source: Rosstat

Russian Energy — 2015. Electricity 59 Russian Energy — 2015. Electricity 60

Average electricity price by consumers (nominal prices) 2010-2015, rubles/kWh

2015/2014, % 2015/2010, ratio Industry Agriculture Services Transport Households

6 % 1,2 11 % 1,4 13 % 1,3 2 % 1,0 7 % 2,3 5

4 4,0 4,1

2 2,3 2,3 1,6 1

2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2004 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: Rosstat

price ratio Electricity price for households exceeds (industry/households), ratio the price for industry 1,2 2004-2015, year by year, % 1,1 Electricity price for households exceeds the price for industry

1,0

consumers price index price for industry price for households

0,9 30

25 0,8 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 15

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Rosstat Total electricity consumption in Russia in 2015 has decreased. The main Electricity consumption growth reasons of that are economic crisis and electricity consumption decline in the UES of Russia in industrial regions 2008-2015, year by year, %

UES of Russia, Central Volga Ural North-West South Siberia East total 10

-5

-10 Source: SO-UPS

Industrial Production Index in Russia and federal districs 2008-2015, year by year, %

Russia Center North West South North Caucasus Volga Ural Siberia Far East Crimea

-5

-10

Source:-15 Rosstat

Russian Energy — 2015. Electricity 61

Prepared by the Analytical Center for the Government of the Russian Federation www.ac.gov.ru