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Buy Avichina Deutsche Bank Markets Research Rating Company Date 25 November 2015 Buy AviChina Initiation of Coverage Asia China Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 25 Nov 2015 (HKD) 6.75 Industrials 2357.HK 2357 HK HKG 2357 Price target - 12mth (HKD) 8.40 Manufacturing 52-week range (HKD) 10.29 - 4.51 HANG SENG INDEX 22,588 A growing mini AVIC; initiating with Nick Zheng, CFA Sky Hong, CFA Buy Research Analyst Research Analyst (+852) 2203 6198 (+852) 2203 6131 Strong organic growth + Upside from restructuring = Top Buy [email protected] [email protected] AviChina and its A-share affiliates offer a high growth exposure to rising demand trends in the military and civil aviation industry in China. Current operations will generate 23% EPS CAGR but the key focus for investors should Price/price relative be on asset injection potential from the parent group AVIC, which is >10 times 11 AviChina's size. Our valuation of HK$8.40 incorporates a 25% holding company 9 discount and a further 15% H-share discount. 8 Solid organic growth prospects driven by Avicopter and JONHON Optronic 6 We expect all four of AviChina’s listed subsidiaries to see double-digit growth 5 3 in 2016-2017 led by JONHON Optronic and Avicopter. Overall, we project an 11/13 5/14 11/14 5/15 EPS CAGR of 23% for AviChina during 2015-2017 on the back of a 32% AviChina earnings CAGR for Avicopter, 20% for AVIC Avionics, 17% for Hongdu Aviation, HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) and 48% for JONHON Optronic. Rising contribution from JONHON Optronic, Performance (%) 1m 3m 12m which has higher margins, should bode well for the company’s profitability. Absolute 2.6 32.1 18.4 Asset injections to add additional source of growth HANG SENG INDEX -2.4 5.5 -5.3 Given AviChina currently represents only 20% of the total gross profit of Source: Deutsche Bank AVIC’s aviation business, we see significant potential for AVIC to further transfer its aviation-related assets to AviChina. In the near term, we expect 1) the announced injection of AVIC Planning (AVIC’s survey, design and EPC arm) to boost AviChina’s 2016 EPS by double digit (up to c20%) and 2) the announced participation in the capital increase of Chengdu Aircraft and Shenyang Aircraft to help AviChina gain exposure to AVIC’s jet fighter business. We also expect the potential injection of five research institutes into AVIC Avionics to lift AviChina’s earnings significantly (+15-40% on 2016 EPS based on our scenario analysis). Valuation and risks Our target price of HK$8.40 is derived using a SoTP valuation methodology, which corresponds to a P/E of 32.8x/25.9x on 2016/2017.Key risks include an unexpected decrease in China’s military spending; delay in deliveries of military orders; and value dilutive asset injections. Forecasts And Ratios Year End Dec 31 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016E 2017E Sales (CNYm) 22,192.7 25,710.4 29,277.4 35,261.3 42,939.7 EBITDA (CNYm) 2,493.4 2,814.6 3,303.8 4,018.2 4,913.7 Reported NPAT (CNYm) 712.6 781.3 906.6 1,156.3 1,464.5 DB EPS FD(CNY) 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.21 0.27 DB EPS growth (%) 5.7 9.4 15.9 27.5 26.7 PER (x) 23.7 26.8 33.6 26.3 20.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 9.0 10.7 12.5 10.6 9.0 DPS (net) (CNY) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 Yield (net) (%) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company data 1 DB EPS is fully diluted and excludes non-recurring items 2 Multiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except P/B which uses the year end close ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. 25 November 2015 Manufacturing AviChina Model updated:24 November 2015 Fiscal year end 31-Dec 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E Running the numbers Financial Summary Asia DB EPS (CNY) 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.21 0.27 Reported EPS (CNY) 0.12 0.13 0.14 0.17 0.21 0.27 China DPS (CNY) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.04 BVPS (CNY) 1.9 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.5 Manufacturing Weighted average shares (m) 5,373 5,448 5,460 5,474 5,474 5,474 AviChina Average market cap (CNYm) 13,723 16,884 20,909 30,463 30,463 30,463 Enterprise value (CNYm) 16,128 22,336 30,038 41,296 42,457 44,077 Reuters: 2357.HK Bloomberg: 2357 HK Valuation Metrics P/E (DB) (x) 20.7 23.7 26.8 33.6 26.3 20.8 Buy P/E (Reported) (x) 20.7 23.7 26.8 33.6 26.3 20.8 Price (25 Nov 15) HKD 6.75 P/BV (x) 1.48 1.92 1.92 2.62 2.41 2.19 Target Price HKD 8.40 FCF Yield (%) nm nm nm nm 0.7 0.7 Dividend Yield (%) 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 52 Week range HKD 4.51 - 10.29 EV/Sales (x) 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 Market Cap (m) HKDm 36,952 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.4 9.0 10.7 12.5 10.6 9.0 EV/EBIT (x) 10.4 12.7 15.1 17.2 13.9 11.4 USDm 4,768 Income Statement (CNYm) Company Profile Sales revenue 18,368 22,193 25,710 29,277 35,261 42,940 AviChina Industry & Technology Co Ltd manufactures and Gross profit 3,924 4,308 4,899 5,984 7,256 8,910 sells aviation tools and aero-parts. The Company's main EBITDA 2,190 2,493 2,815 3,304 4,018 4,914 products include helicopters, regional aircrafts, trainers, Depreciation 608 702 763 850 915 972 general aircrafts, aero-parts and components and aero- Amortisation 34 34 56 57 58 62 electrical products. EBIT 1,549 1,758 1,995 2,397 3,045 3,880 Net interest income(expense) -66 -74 -136 -202 -189 -183 Associates/affiliates 57 77 144 154 188 216 Exceptionals/extraordinaries 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other pre-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Profit before tax 1,540 1,761 2,003 2,349 3,044 3,913 Price Performance Income tax expense 235 250 267 352 457 587 Minorities 641 798 954 1,090 1,431 1,862 11 Other post-tax income/(expense) 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Net profit 664 713 781 907 1,156 1,465 8 DB adjustments (including dilution) 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 DB Net profit 664 713 781 907 1,156 1,465 5 Cash Flow (CNYm) 3 Nov 13Feb 14May 14Aug 14Nov 14Feb 15May 15Aug 15 Cash flow from operations -710 572 -392 890 1,268 1,449 Net Capex -1,179 -3,036 -1,691 -1,550 -1,050 -1,250 AviChina HANG SENG INDEX (Rebased) Free cash flow -1,889 -2,464 -2,083 -660 218 199 Equity raised/(bought back) 1,968 2,693 49 0 0 0 Margin Trends Dividends paid -282 -223 -387 -109 -136 -173 Net inc/(dec) in borrowings 505 1,506 1,274 -633 -64 -382 12.0 Other investing/financing cash flows -1,554 -392 220 0 0 0 11.0 Net cash flow -1,252 1,120 -928 -1,402 19 -356 10.0 Change in working capital 2,181 2,283 2,692 3,304 4,018 4,914 9.0 Balance Sheet (CNYm) 8.0 Cash and other liquid assets 5,606 6,726 5,798 4,396 4,414 4,058 7.0 Tangible fixed assets 7,161 9,275 10,481 11,130 11,215 11,443 12 13 14 15E 16E 17E Goodwill/intangible assets 1,325 1,528 1,670 1,663 1,655 1,643 EBITDA Margin EBIT Margin Associates/investments 5,637 5,624 4,977 5,131 5,319 5,536 Other assets 21,936 27,776 31,796 36,226 43,427 52,639 Growth & Profitability Total assets 41,665 50,928 54,722 58,546 66,030 75,319 Interest bearing debt 4,597 6,118 7,418 6,785 6,721 6,339 50 12 Other liabilities 17,860 23,004 24,002 26,573 31,669 38,187 40 10 Total liabilities 22,457 29,121 31,420 33,358 38,390 44,526 8 30 Shareholders' equity 10,156 10,123 10,815 11,613 12,633 13,924 6 Minorities 9,052 11,684 12,486 13,576 15,007 16,869 20 4 Total shareholders' equity 19,208 21,807 23,301 25,188 27,640 30,793 10 2 Net debt -1,009 -608 1,620 2,389 2,307 2,281 0 0 12 13 14 15E 16E 17E Key Company Metrics Sales growth (%) 38.4 20.8 15.9 13.9 20.4 21.8 Sales growth (LHS) ROE (RHS) DB EPS growth (%) 22.1 5.7 9.4 15.9 27.5 26.7 Solvency EBITDA Margin (%) 11.9 11.2 10.9 11.3 11.4 11.4 EBIT Margin (%) 8.4 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.0 15 25 Payout ratio (%) 16.2 15.3 14.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 10 20 ROE (%) 7.5 7.0 7.5 8.1 9.5 11.0 Capex/sales (%) 6.6 14.4 7.1 5.3 3.0 2.9 5 15 Capex/depreciation (x) 1.9 4.3 2.2 1.7 1.1 1.2 0 10 Net debt/equity (%) -5.3 -2.8 7.0 9.5 8.3 7.4 -5 5 Net interest cover (x) 23.6 23.8 14.7 11.9 16.1 21.2 -10 0 Source: Company data, Deutsche Bank estimates 12 13 14 15E 16E 17E Net debt/equity (LHS) Net interest cover (RHS) Nick Zheng, CFA +852 2203 6198 [email protected] Page 2 Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong 25 November 2015 Manufacturing AviChina Investment thesis Outlook Positioned as AVIC’s strategic listing platform for asset consolidation, AviChina is poised to benefit from the ongoing asset restructuring within AVIC group as well as promising organic growth opportunities arising from its current product portfolio via its four A-share subsidiaries.
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