Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries a Conference Report Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research

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Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries A Conference Report Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research

Number 30

National Bureau of Economic Research Population and Economic Change in Developing Countries

Edited by Richard A. Easterlin

The University of Chicago Press

Chicago and London The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London

ISBN 0-226-18027-1 National Bureau of Economic Research Arthur F. Burns, honorary chairman Charles E. McLure, Jr., vice-president James J. O'Leary, chairman Charles A. Walworth, treasurer Eli Shapiro, vice-chairman Sam Parker, director of finance and Martin Feldstein, president administration

Directors at Large Moses Abramovitz Eugene P. Foley Peter G. Peterson Atherton Bean Edward L. Ginzton Robert V. Roosa Andrew F. Brimmer David L. Grove Richard N. Rosett Otis F. Brubaker WaIter W. Heller Bert Seidman Arthur F. Burns Walter E. Hoadley Eli Shapiro George T. Conklin, Jr. Roy E. Moor Arnold M. Soloway Solomon Fabricant Geoffrey H. Moore Stephen Stamas Martin Feldstein James J. O'Leary Lazare Teper

Directors by University Appointment Gardner Ackley, Michigan Maurice W. Lee, North Carolina G. L. Bach, Stanford James L. Pierce, California, Berkeley Charles H. Berry, Princeton Almarin Phillips, Pennsylvania Otto Eckstein, Harvard Lloyd G. Reynolds, Yale Walter D. Fisher, Northwestem Robert M. Solow, Massachusetts John H. Kareken, Minnesota Institute of Technology J. C. LaForce, California, Los Angeles Henri Theil, Chicago Robert J. Lampman, Wisconsin William S. Vickrey, Columbia

Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations Eugene A. Birnbaum, American Douglass C. North, Economic History Management Associations Association Carl F. Christ, American Economic Rudolph A. Oswald, American Federa- Association tion of Labor and Congress of Robert G. Dederick, National Associa- Industrial Organizations tion of Business Economists Charles A. Walworth, American Stephan F. Kaliski, Canadian Eco- Institute of Certified Public nomics Association Accountants Franklin A. Lindsay, Committee for G. Edward Schuh, American Agricul- Economic Development tural Economics Associatic 11 Paul W. McCracken, American James C. Van Horne, American Statistical A ssociation Finance Association

Directors Emeriti Percival F. Brundage Gottfried Haberler Boris Shishkin Emilio G. Collado Albert J. Hettinger, Jr. Willard L. Thorp Frank W. Fetter George B. Roberts Joseph H. Willits Thomas D. Flynn Murray Shields Theodore O. Yntema

Since this volume is a record of conference proceedings, it has been exempted from the rules governing critical review of manuscripts by the Board of Directors of the National Bureau (resolution adopted 6 July 1948, as revised 21 November 1949 and 20 April 1968). Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research This committee is a cooperative venture of universities and the National Bureau. Its guiding objective is the encouragement of economic research on problems susceptible of objective treatment and of sufficiently broad scope to merit attention by institutions serving a scientific and public interest.

Participating Universities and Their Representatives Brown, Jerome L. Stein New School for Social Research, California (Berkeley), Daniel Thomas Vietorisz McFadden New York, M. Ishaq Nadiri California (Los Angeles), J. C. New York State (Buffalo), La Force Daniel Hamberg California (San Diego), Robert E. North Carolina, Henry A. Latane Engle Northwestern, Robert Eisner Carnegie-Mellon, Edward C. Prescott Ohio State, Donald O. Parsons Chicago, Lester G. Telser Pennsylvania, Jere R. Behrman Columbia, Robert Mundell Pittsburgh, S. H. Chou Cornell, S. C. Tsiang Princeton, Edwin S. Mills Duke, T. Dudley Wallace Purdue, Patric H. Hendershott Harvard, John V. Lintner Queen's, Martin F. J. Prachowny Illinois, Robert Resek Rochester, Walter Y. Oi Indiana, Franz Gehrels Stanford, Moses Abramovitz Iowa State, Dudley G. Luckett Texas, Samuel L. Myers, Jr. Johns Hopkins, Carl F. Christ Toronto, Richard Bird Maryland, Barbara Bergman Vanderbilt, Anthony M. Tang Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Virginia, Richard T. Selden Richard S. Eckaus Washington (Saint Louis), McGill, Alex G. Vicas Hyman Minsky Michigan, Harold T. Shapiro Washington (Seattle), Richard Michigan State, Victor Smith W. Parks Minnesota, James M. Henderson Wisconsin, Leonard W. Weiss Yale, Richard Ruggles

National Bureau of Economic Research Representative Robert E. Lipsey Members at Large Irma Adelman Daniel Creamer Walter S. Salant Bela A. Balassa Frank de Leeuw George J. Stigler Carl E. Beigie The officers of the Universities-National Bureau Committee are: Edwin S. Mills, chairman; Leonard W. Weiss, vice-chairman; and Christine Mortensen, secretary. The members of the Executive Committee are: Irma Adelman, Richard Bird, Robert Eisner, Robert E. Lipsey, Dudley G. Luckett, Edwin S. Mills, and Leonard W. Weiss.