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Contributors V. Lewis Bassie Robert Eisner David Kinley Hall Department of Economics Box 38 Northwestern University University of Illinois Evanston, IlHnois 60201 Urbana, Illinois 61801 Murray F. Foss Morris Cohen American Enterprise Institute Morris Cohen & Associates 1150 17th Street N.W. 241 Main Street Washington, D.C. 20036 Hackensack, New Jersey 07601 Rosanne Cole Karl D. Galbraith Economic Research and Forecasting Bureau of Economic Analysis International Business Machines U.S. Department of Commerce Corporation Washington, D.C. 20230 Old Orchard Road Armonk, New York 10504 Robert J. Gordon Department of Economics Daniel Creamer Northwestern University Deceased 2003 Sheridan Road Room 6180 Edward F. Denison Evanston, lUinois 60201 The Brookings Institution 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20036 John A. Gorman National Income and Wealth Divi- John F. Early sion General Research Corporation Bureau of Economic Analysis 7655 Old Springhouse Road U.S. Department of Commerce McLean, Virginia 22102 Washington, D.C. 20230 Otto Eckstein Alan Greenspan Data Resources, Inc. Townsend-Greenspan & Co., Inc. 29 Hartwell Avenue 1 New York Plaza Lexington, Massachusetts 02173 New York, New York 10004 429 430 Contributors Zvi Griliches Arthur M. Okun Department of Economics Deceased Harvard University 125 Littauer Center Robert P. Parker Cambridge, Massachusetts 02138 National Income and Wealth Divi- sion Bruce T. Grimm Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Department of Commerce U.S. Department of Commerce Washington, D.C. 20230 Washington, D.C. 20230 Albert A. Hirsch Albert Rees Econometric Studies Branch Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Bureau of Economic Analysis 630 Fifth Avenue U.S. Department of Commerce Room 3550 Washington, D.C. 20230 New York, New York 10020 Saul H. Hymans Richard Ruggles Department of Economics Department of Economics University of Michigan Yale University Ann Arbor, Michigan 48104 New Haven, Connecticut 06520 John W. Kendrick Stanley J. Sigel Department of Economics Division of Research and Statistics George Washington University Federal Reserve Board Washington, D.C. 20006 Washington, D.C. 20551 Lawrence Klein James H. Sinclair Department of Economics Division of Industrial Prices and Wharton School Price Indexes University of Pennsylvania Office of Prices and Living Condi- 3718 Locust Street tions Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19174 Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Department of Labor Ronald E. Kutscher 441 G. Street N.W. Office of Economic Growth and Em- Washington, D.C. 20212 ployment Projections Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Department of Labor Stephen Taylor 441 G. Street N.W. Division of Research and Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212 Federal Reserve Board Washington, D.C. 20551 Marilyn E. Manser Mathematica Policy Research, Inc. Helen Stone Tice 600 Maryland Avenue, S.W. Bureau of Economic Analysis Suite 550 U.S. Department of Commerce Washington, D.C. 20024 Washington, D.C. 20230 431 Contributors Jack E. Triplett Richard C. Ziemer Office of Research and Evaluation Bureau of Economic Analysis Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Department of Commerce U.S. Department of Labor Washington, D.C. 20230 441 G. Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20212 This Page Intentionally Left Blank.

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Economic Choices
ECONOMIC CHOICES Daniel McFadden* This Nobel lecture discusses the microeconometric analysis of choice behavior of consumers who face discrete economic alternatives. Before the 1960's, economists used consumer theory mostly as a logical tool, to explore conceptually the properties of alternative market organizations and economic policies. When the theory was applied empirically, it was to market-level or national-accounts-level data. In these applications, the theory was usually developed in terms of a representative agent, with market-level behavior given by the representative agent’s behavior writ large. When observations deviated from those implied by the representative agent theory, these differences were swept into an additive disturbance and attributed to data measurement errors, rather than to unobserved factors within or across individual agents. In statistical language, traditional consumer theory placed structural restrictions on mean behavior, but the distribution of responses about their mean was not tied to the theory. In the 1960's, rapidly increasing availability of survey data on individual behavior, and the advent of digital computers that could analyze these data, focused attention on the variations in demand across individuals. It became important to explain and model these variations as part of consumer theory, rather than as ad hoc disturbances. This was particularly obvious for discrete choices, such as transportation mode or occupation. The solution to this problem has led to the tools we have today for microeconometric analysis of choice behavior. I will first give a brief history of the development of this subject, and place my own contributions in context. After that, I will discuss in some detail more recent developments in the economic theory of choice, and modifications to this theory that are being forced by experimental evidence from cognitive psychology.
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