Bora Tezguler HOLDING NAVs 90 212 334 9467 [email protected] UUpdate Hakan Deprem +90 212 334 9462 [email protected] Omer Omerbas +90 212 334 9521 [email protected] 12 January 2015 VALUATION & RATINGS
% of listed Price Mcap 12M NAV subs. in Target price Ticker Company (TL) (TLmn) (TLmn) 12M NAV (12M, TL) Upside (%) Rating
AKFEN Akfen 4.85 1,411 2,678 26% 6.38 32% Outperform ALARK Alarko 4.50 1,006 1,486 22% 5.60 24% Outperform DOHOL Dogan 0.74 1,937 5,397 63% 1.01 36% Outperform ENKAI Enka Insaat 5.25 18,900 26,413 0.3% 7.41 41% Outperform KCHOL Koc 12.40 31,445 31,049 93% 11.15 ‐10% Not Rated SAHOL Sabanci 10.30 21,016 31,997 70% 13.90 35% Not Rated SISE Sise Cam 3.89 6,613 7,342 61% 3.90 0% Neutral TKFEN Tekfen 5.87 2,172 3,483 2% 7.82 33% Outperform
Price data as of January 9, 2015 MARKET DATA
Price Price Performance (Relative to ISE 100) Avg. Daily Vol. 52‐wk Ticker Company (TL) 1‐wk 1‐Month 1‐yr YtD (TLmn, 3 mth.) High ‐ Low (TL)
AKFEN Akfen 4.85 1.0% 0.0% ‐18.3% 0.9% 0.6 5.30 / 3.65 ALARK Alarko 4.50 ‐1.2% ‐2.3% ‐29.1% ‐1.3% 13.5 5.20 / 3.81 DOHOL Dogan 0.74 ‐3.8% ‐7.2% ‐25.2% ‐4.8% 24.8 0.85 / 0.64 ENKAI Enka Insaat 5.25 ‐2.7% ‐13.0% ‐29.6% ‐2.8% 25.9 6.08 / 4.98 KCHOL Koc 12.40 ‐0.9% 0.1% 11.1% ‐2.2% 57.3 12.60 / 7.31 SAHOL Sabanci 10.30 ‐0.6% 0.2% ‐4.8% ‐0.8% 58.8 10.85 / 7.18 SISE Sise Cam 3.89 2.5% 7.1% 22.8% 4.5% 15.3 3.89 / 1.92 TKFEN Tekfen 5.87 ‐2.7% ‐7.1% ‐9.6% ‐0.8% 41.8 6.17 / 4.24
VALUATION MULTIPLES
Price‐to Price‐to Price‐to T12m Ticker Company 12M NAV Book Value (TL) Net Inc. (TL)
AKFEN Akfen 0.53x 1.07x 114.0x ALARK Alarko 0.68x 0.85x 19.6x DOHOL Dogan 0.36x 0.56x n.m. ENKAI Enka Insaat 0.72x 1.51x 13.4x KCHOL Koc 1.01x 1.59x 12.3x SAHOL Sabanci 0.66x 1.13x 13.2x SISE Sise Cam 0.90x 1.16x 11.7x TKFEN Tekfen 0.62x 1.01x 11.9x AK Investment ‐ Research HOLDING NET ASSET VALUES ‐ January 12, 2015
AKFEN HOLDING ‐ NAV (US$mn)
Direct % of Stake Valuation Method Partic. Value NAV
Port & Maritime Operations 69% Mersin International Port (MIP) 50% DCF 721 61% Istanbul Fast Ferries (IDO) 30% DCF 98 8%
Airport Operations TAV Airports Holding 8% DCF 238 20%
Construction TAV Construction 22% Transaction value 22 2% Akfen Construction 100% 5.15% AKFEN Stake 32 3% Isparta City Hospital 100% DCF 63 5%
Real Estate Akfen REIT 56% Mcap 71 6%
Utilities Akfen HEPP 100% DCF 293 25% Akfen Water 50% Multiples 18 2%
Holding only net cash ‐181 NPV of holding only expenses ‐185
Akfen Holding 12M Target NAV 1,190
(Discount) / Premium to 12M Target NAV ‐48% Akfen Holding Current Mcap 613
Akfen Holding 12M target Mcap @ 30% holding discount 774
Hakan Deprem +90 212 334 9462, [email protected] AK Investment ‐ Research HOLDING NET ASSET VALUES ‐ January 12, 2015
ALARKO HOLDING ‐ NAV (US$mn)
Direct % of Stake Valuation Method Partic. Value NAV
Contracting Alsim 100% DCF 201 23%
Land Development Alarko REIT 51% Mcap 49 6% Alarko Konut 100% NAV 40 5% Mos Alarko 50% Rent yield @9% 19
Energy Alcen (Elect. Dist.) 50% DCF 188 21% Altek (Elect. Gen.) 100% DCF 46 5% Cenal (Elect. Gen. ‐ Karabiga) 50% DCF 174 20%
Industry & Trade Alarko Carrier 43% Mcap 82 9%
Tourism Attaş 100% BV 9 1%
Other Alfarm (Seafood Products) 50% BV 2 0%
Net Cash (Holding‐only) 72 8%
Alarko Holding 12M Target NAV 881
(Discount) / Premium to 12M Target NAV ‐50% Alarko Holding Current Mcap 437
12M Target Mcap (NAV@40% holding discount rolled 1yr with CoE, US$mn) 528
Hakan Deprem +90 212 334 9462, [email protected] AK Investment ‐ Research HOLDING NET ASSET VALUES ‐ January 12, 2015
DOGAN HOLDING ‐ NAV (TLmn)
Direct Valuation Method Participation Value % of Stake Current/Target Current/Target Current NAV
Media 33% Media Business 100.0% SOTP 1,536 / 1,786 30% Hurriyet 11.1% Mcap/DCF 51 / 41 1% Dogan TV Holding 5.0% Peer comparison 101 / 118 2%
Energy 18% HEPPs 33.0% DCF 529 / 615 12% WPPs 100.0% Transaction 312 / 312 6%
Retail 3% D&R 100.0% Transaction 139 / 139 3%
Others 12% Milpa 86.3% Mcap 138 / 138 3% Ditas 73.6% Mcap 59 / 59 1% Celik Halat 78.7% Mcap 43 / 43 1% Dogan Organik 100.0% Transaction 50 / 50 1% Milta 100.0% Rights Issue 154 / 154 3% DHI 100.0% Rights Issue 175 / 175 3%
Others Unlisted Est. Book Values 403 / 469 9%
Value of participations 3,691 / 4,098 Adjusted Net Cash (Holding‐only) * 1,299
Dogan Holding Current / 12M Target NAV 4,990 / 5,397 (Value of Listed Participations + Net Cash) / Current NAV 63% Dogan Holding Current Mcap 1,937 (Discount) / Premium to Current / 12M Target NAV ‐61% / ‐64% Dogan Hold. Target (Target NAV@50% discount) 2,699
* Net cash is adjusted by TL286mn option liabilities
Bora Tezguler +90 212 334 9467, [email protected] AK Investment ‐ Research HOLDING NET ASSET VALUES ‐ January 12, 2015
ENKA INSAAT ‐ NAV (US$mn)
Total % of Stake Valuation Method Partic. Value NAV
Construction 100% DCF & Peer valuation 2,352 20%
Real Estate 100% DCF 3,596 30%
Energy 100% DCF 3,264 27%
Trade & Manufacturing 100% DCF 259 2%
Total EV 9,471
Estimated net cash position 2,581 21%
Enka Insaat 12M Target NAV 12,053 Equity value of Founder Shares ‐221 Minority ‐93 (Discount) / Premium to 12M Target NAV ‐30%
Enka Insaat Current Mcap 8,216 Enka Insaat 12M Target Mcap @ 5% conglomerate discount 11,152
Hakan Deprem +90 212 334 9462, [email protected] AK Investment ‐ Research
KOC HOLDING ‐ NAV (US$mn)
Direct Valuation Method Value % of Stake (Current/Target) (Cur./Tar.) Current NAV
Automotive 34% Ford Otosan 38.5% Mcap/DCF‐Intn'l Peer Comp. 1,868 / 1,780 14% Tofas 37.6% Mcap/DCF‐Intn'l Peer Comp. 1,299 / 1,309 10% Turk Traktor 37.5% Mcap/DCF 713 / 682 5% Otokar 44.7% MCap 476 4% Otokoc 96.3% Book Value 105 1%
Consumer Durables 14% Arcelik 40.5% Mcap/DCF‐Intn'l Peer Comp. 1,815 / 1,904 14% Arcelik LG Klima 5.0% Book Value 6 0.04%
Energy 22% Tupras 38.3% Mcap/DCF‐Intn'l Peer Comp. 2,303 / 2,340 18% Aygaz 40.7% MCap 554 4% AES Entek* 24.8% Peers' (Akenr, Aksen) EV/MW Valuation 52 0%
Finance 23% Yapi Kredi Bankasi 30.7% Mcap/Warranted Equity 2,925 / 3,656 22% Koc Tuketici Finans 44.5% end‐2Q13 Book Value 37 0.3%
Retail 1% Duzey 31.2% Book Value 10 0.1% Koctas* 37.1% Retailers' 4Q‐Trailing EV/Sales * 114 1%
Food 1% Tat Konserve 43.7% MCap 103 1%
Tourism 0% Cesme Altinyunus 30.0% MCap 12 0.1% Marmaris Altinyunus 36.8% MCap 12 0.1%
Others 1% Setur 24.1% Book Value 14 0.1% Zer 39.0% Book Value 45 0.3% Ram Dis Ticaret 39.7% Book Value 5 0.0% Others Book Value 32 0.2%
Net Cash Holding‐only + 75% net debt on SPV 552 4%
Koc Holding Current / 12M Target NAV 13,052 / 13,800 (Value of Listed Participations + Net Cash) / Current NAV 97%
Koc Holding Current Mcap 13,669
(Discount) / Premium to Current / 12M Target NAV 5% / ‐1%
Avg. Historic (Discount) / Premium to Current NAV (since 2005) ‐13%
Koc Holding Target (12M Target NAV) 13,800
* Assuming Net Debt/Equity = 30%
Bora Tezguler +90 212 334 9467, [email protected] AK Investment ‐ Research
SABANCI HOLDING ‐ NAV (US$mn)
Direct Valuation Method Value % of Stake (Current/Target) (Cur./Proj.) Current NAV
Finance 53% Akbank 40.8% Mcap/Warranted Equity 6,337 / 6,659 49% Aksigorta 36.0% Mcap / DDM & Gordon Growth 121 / 153 1% AvivaSA 49.8% Mcap / Dividend Discount Model 358 / 414 3%
Tire 8% Brisa 43.6% MCap 596 5% Kordsa 91.1% MCap 386 3%
Cement 8% Akcansa 39.7% DCF+Int'l Peer 549 / 554 4% Cimsa 53.0% DCF+Int'l Peer 507 / 567 4%
Textile 0% Yunsa 57.9% MCap 39 0%
Chemicals 1% Sasa 51.0% DCF 97 1%
Retail 7% CarrefourSA 50.8% Mcap 603 5% Teknosa 60.3% Mcap / DCF 264 / 330 2%
Automotive 0% Temsa 48.7% 3Q14 Book Value 53 0%
Others 25% Enerjisa 50.0% 3Q14 Book Value / DCF 1,855 / 2,600 14% Philsa 25.0% 2014F P/E of Intn'l Peers @ 20% discount 1,114 9% Others 3Q14 Book Value 208 2%
Net Debt (Holding‐only, end‐3Q14) ‐153 / ‐153 ‐1%
Sabanci Holding Current / 12M Target NAV 12,935 / 14,221
(Value of Listed Participations + Holding‐only Net Cash) / Current NAV 70%
Sabanci Holding Current Mcap 9,135
(Discount) / Premium to Current / 12M Target NAV ‐29% / ‐36%
Avg. Historic (Discount) / Premium to Current NAV (since 2005) ‐29%
Sabanci Hold. Target (Target NAV@15% discount) 12,088
Hakan Deprem +90 212 334 9462, [email protected] AK Investment ‐ Research HOLDING NET ASSET VALUES ‐ January 12, 2015
SISE CAM HOLDING ‐ NAV (TLmn)
Total Valuation Method Value % of Stake (Current/Target) (Cur./Tar.) Current NAV
Flat Glass 31% TR Trakya Cam 69.8% Mcap / DCF+Peers 1,831 / 1,960 27% Trakya Cam Yenisehir 15.0% Mcap / DCF+Peers 70 / 81 1% Cayirova Cam 71.9% Land and stock portfolio 161 2%
Glassware 30% Pasabahce Cam 84.0% 15% discount on transaction value 1,619 / 1,861 24% Camis Ambalaj 100.0% Multiples 143 / 165 2% DE Denizli Cam 26.0% Market cap 13 / 15 0% Beykoz Land 100.0% Assumed value 208 3%
Glass Packaging 11% AN Anadolu Cam 79.1% Mcap / DCF+Peers 710 / 808 11% Anadolu Cam Yenisehir 15.1% Mcap / DCF+Peers 40 / 46 1%
Chemicals 22% SO Soda Sanayii 61.0% Mcap / DCF+Peers 1,377 / 1,499 21% Cam Elyaf 63.9% Transaction Value 111 / 127 2%
Others 3% Camis Elektrik 39.3% Transaction Value 56 / 64 1% Camis Madencilik 100.0% Transaction Value 127 / 147 2%
Net Cash (Holding‐only) 200 3%
Sise Cam Holding Current/12M Target NAV 6,666 / 7,342 Value of Listed Participations / Current NAV 62%
Sise Cam Holding Current Mcap 6,613
(Discount) / Premium to Current / 12M Target NAV ‐1% / ‐10%
Sise Cam Holding Target (10% discount to target NAV) 6,628
Omer Omerbas +90 212 334 9521, [email protected] AK Investment ‐ Research HOLDING NET ASSET VALUES ‐ January 12, 2015
TEKFEN HOLDING ‐ NAV (US$mn)
Total % of Stake Valuation Method Partic. Value NAV
Construction Tekfen Contracting 100% DCF 416 27%
Fertilizer ‐ Agriculture Toros Agri 100% 50% DCF+ 50% Peers 635 41%
Real Estate Akmerkez REIT 10.8% Mcap 32 2% Real Estate Portfolio 100% DCF, Appraisal, Land value 157 10%
Net Cash (Holding‐only) 308 20%
Tekfen Holding 12M Target NAV 1,548 (Discount) / Premium to 12M Target NAV ‐39%
Tekfen Holding Current Mcap 944 Tekfen Holding 12M Target Mcap @ 20% conglomerate discount 1,238
Hakan Deprem +90 212 334 9462, [email protected] AK Investment ‐ Research
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