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Election 20/20 The 2020 Elections & Private Equity Brett Palmer President Small Business Investor Alliance The Voice of Private Equity in Washington www.SBIA.org 2020 Election Results: Topline Chamber/Office Control before election Control in 2021 House of Democrats Democrats Representatives Senate Republicans Not yet called President Republicans (Trump) Democrats (Biden) S O U R C E Associated Press AP DATA AS OF 11/9/2020 8:20 AM Presidential Tight States (But there is no honest question who won) 306 232 270 needed to win 10 20 16 4 29 18 6 11 10 15 6 38 16 NE-02: 1 ME-02: 1 *Outline reflects 2016 winner KEY Rep Dem Key Senate Swing States 48 2 50 Lean Democrat Toss Up Lean Republican AK IA SC AL MI GA-II GA-III AZ ME NC MT KS TX CO *Outline reflects party of current officeholder NOT YET GA-II = Perdue (R) incumbent KEY CALLED Rep Dem GA-III = Loeffler (R) incumbent S O U R C E Associated Press; Cook Political Report AP DATA AS OF 11/9/2020 8:20 AM 2020 US Senate Results Democrat hold Democrat gain Not yet called Republican gain Republican hold No election 2020 election 11 2 2 1 19 65 WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH ID SD WI NY WY MI IA PA NE NV MA OH UT IL IN RI CA CO WV KS MO VA KY CT NC TN NJ AZ OK NM AR SC DE MS AL GA-II GA-III MD TX AK LA FL HI S O U R C E Associated Press AP DATA AS OF 11/9/2020 8:20 AM 2021 US Senate Makeup 2 Democrats 1 Democrat + 1 Republican 2 Republicans Not yet called WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH ID SD WI NY WY MI IA PA NE NV MA OH UT IL IN RI CA CO WV KS MO VA KY CT NC TN NJ AZ OK NM AR SC DE MS AL GA MD TX AK LA FL HI S O U R C E Associated Press AP DATA AS OF 11/9/2020 8:20 AM 2020 Governor Results Dem hold Dem gain No election GOP hold GOP gain WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH ID SD WI NY WY MI IA PA NE NV MA OH UT IL IN RI CA CO WV KS MO VA KY CT NC TN NJ AZ OK NM AR SC DE MS AL GA MD TX AK LA FL HI S O U R C E Associated Press AP DATA AS OF 11/9/2020 8:20 AM 2021 Governor Makeup Dem governor GOP governor Not yet called WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH ID SD WI NY WY MI IA PA NE NV MA OH UT IL IN RI CA CO WV KS MO VA KY CT NC TN NJ AZ OK NM AR SC DE MS AL GA MD TX AK LA FL HI S O U R C E Associated Press AP DATA AS OF 11/9/2020 8:20 AM 2021 State Legislature Makeup Dem House and Senate Split House and Senate GOP House and Senate Not yet called WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH ID SD WI NY WY MI IA PA NE* NV MA OH UT IL IN RI CA CO WV KS MO VA KY CT NC TN NJ AZ OK NM AR SC DE MS AL GA MD TX AK LA FL HI *Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature S O U R C E Associated Press AP DATA AS OF 11/9/2020 8:20 AM 2021 State Trifectas Dem trifecta Not a trifecta Trifectas are when one party controls the GOP trifecta Not yet called governorship and both legislative chambers WA ME MT ND VT OR MN NH ID SD WI NY WY MI IA PA NE* NV MA OH UT IL IN RI CA CO WV KS MO VA KY CT NC TN NJ AZ OK NM AR SC DE MS AL GA MD TX AK LA FL HI *Nebraska has a non-partisan unicameral legislature S O U R C E Associated Press AP DATA AS OF 11/9/2020 8:20 AM 2020 Electoral College and Statewide Races President (Electoral College) Senate Governor AK MA NV AL MS MO AL MD NY AK MT AR ME OH AR NE MT AZ ME-1 OK AZ NH CA ME-2 OR NC CO NM CO MI PA DE NJ NH CT MN RI GA-II NC DC MO SC GA-III OK VT DE MS SD ID OR FL MT TN WV IL RI GA NC TX IA SC DE HI ND UT KEY KS SD IA NE VA Runoff KY TN IN ID NE-1 VT Election LA TX Jan 5 IL NE-2 WA ND IN NE-3 WI ME VA Rep KS NH WV MA WV UT KY NJ WY MI WY Dem WA LA NM MN 2020 Election Status by House Race KEY SOURCE Politico 2020 Election: The Density Divide KEY Source: WSJ.com Nov 24 2020 https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-2020-election-deepened-americas-white-collar-blue-collar-split-11606219208 Selected Ballot Initiatives Topic Subtopic State Initiative Description Result Allows either Initiative 65 (lenient) or Alternative 65a (strict) to pass Medical MS Ballot Measure 1 Passed (voters choose in Measure 1b which version they prefer) Marijuana Legalization SD Measure 26 Creates a medical marijuana program Passed SD Const. Amend. A Legalizes recreational use of marijuana Passed AZ Proposition 207 Legalizes the recreational possession and use of marijuana Passed Recreational Drugs Marijuana CI-118 Amends constitution to allow minimum age of 21 for marijuana Passed Legalization MT I-190 Legalizes possession and use of marijuana for adults over 21 Passed NJ Public Question 1 Amends constitution to legalize recreational use Passed Entheogens DC Initiative 81 Declares that entheogenic plants are lowest police priority Passed (mushrooms) decriminalization OR Measure 109 Legalizes psilocybin administered by the Oregon Health Authority Passed Minimum Wage FL Amendment 2 Increases the state minimum wage to $15 by 2026 Passed Labor Ind. Contractors CA Proposition 22 Considers app-based drivers to be independent contractors Passed S O U R C E Associated Press AP DATA AS OF 11/9/2020 8:20 AM Key Transition Events Pre-election “planning” phase Post-election timeline • Name transition chair(s) and key staff • Develop relationships with the GSA, FBI, OPM, OGE, Nov. 3 Election Day current administration, and Congress • Set goals and develop project plan for transition Dec. 8 “Safe Harbor” deadline for choosing Electors Post-election “transition phase” • Appointing key White House and agency staff Dec. 14 Meeting of electors in states • Deploy teams to agencies for policy/structure review • Finalizing policy agenda/schedule • Naming cabinet Jan. 3 Seating of the new Congress Post-inauguration “handover” phase Jan. 6 Joint session of Congress • New admins must fill about 4,000 political positions counts electoral votes • Over 1,200 positions require Senate confirmation • Official transition organization must also wind down Jan. 20 Inauguration Day S O U R C E National Journal; Center for Presidential Transition President Elect Biden People are Policy Key provisions • All current political appointees will resign or be immediately fired Thousands of • An unprecedented number of senior positions have been left vacant for Management Positions unprecedented periods during the Trump Administration 1 will be swapped out or filled Control of Congress will • Many senior positions and all Cabinet positions require Senate limit or expand choices 2 confirmation of senior personnel • Biden will not waste time and political capital trying to get difficult appointees through so look for “safe” picks (likely angering progressives) Many experienced • President Trump broke all precedents for using “acting” management 3 personnel will return to for senior positions without Senate Confirmation the government • Budget and funds available may already be locked in for new Watch for GOP appointees 4 appointees and centrist • New President will need to submit new budget, outlining priorities, in Senators February 16 Chief of Staff Ron Klain - Biden’s Most Important First Hire BIOGRAPHY A longtime Democratic aide, strategist, and trusted Biden adviser, Klain is a sought-after voice on the COVID-19 pandemic crisis • Extensive background in law, politics, and the private sector working as a top aide to Vice Presidents Al Gore and Joe Biden; now works on the Biden campaign and as General Counsel and EVP of investment firm Revolution • Began professional relationship with Biden on the Senate Judiciary Committee; chief counsel during Biden’s chairmanship from 1989-1992 • As Vice President Gore’s chief of staff, helped his boss navigate Pres. CHIEF OF STAFF, VP JOE BIDEN Clinton’s impeachment while positioning him to run for president 2009-2011 • Played a central role in overseeing the 2009 stimulus package under then- CHIEF OF STAFF, VP AL GORE Vice President Biden 1995-1999 • Appointed by President Obama in 2014 to be the WH “Ebola Czar” for his DATE OF BIRTH crisis-management skills; efforts to contain Ebola considered successful 8/8/1961 (Age: 59) • In his role with Revolution, Klain has joined CEO Steve Case on road trips to HOMETOWN promote tech entrepreneurship across the country Indianapolis, IN • Advises the Biden campaign’s COVID-19 response as well as private sector EDUCATION entities through his position at Revolution Georgetown U., AB, 1983 Harvard Law School, JD, 1987 • In-demand interview subject for his pandemic expertise; has consistently called for a more unified, aggressive federal COVID-19 response FAMILY Wife (Monica Medina); 3 children • Appointed by President-elect Joe Biden to be his White House chief of staff S O U R C E National Journal; Vignette by National Journal Key White House Positions Biden Requires Senate Agency Position Current Official Appointee/Nominee Confirmation? Chief of Staff Mark Meadows Ron Klain No Chris Liddell, Deputy Chief of Staff Tony Ornato, Jen O’Malley Dillon No and Dan Scavino Senior Advisor Jared Kushner Mike Donilon No West Wing Counselor Hope Hicks Steve Ricchetti No Director of Public Engagement Timothy Pataki Cedric Richmond No Director of Intergovt’l Affairs Doug Hoelscher Julie Rodriguez No Counsel Pat Cipollone Dana Remus No Director Russell Vought Yes OMB OIRA Administrator Paul J.
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