The Money Market in August 1963

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The Money Market in August 1963 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 139 sluggishnessshown in this sector during the earlier part of were about the same as in January and April and were the year. Recent Government forecasts of the volume of appreciably above the year-earlier level. Plans to buy private construction for 1963 as a whole imply little change household durables, though showing what appears to be a from present levels over the balance of the year. seasonal decline from the April level, were also higher Spending by the consumer sector, on the other hand. than a year ago. appears to have taken on new vigor in the past several Consumer purchases of cars and durables, of course, months. Thus, retail sales registered gains of better than often involve the use of consumer credit, the steady expan- 1 per cent in both June and July, and weekly data for sion of which has been one of the factors contributing to August suggest a further small increase in that month. the strength in consumer buying throughout the current While new car sales fell off in August, this may in part business upswing. Automobile credit, in particular, has have reflected a shortage of models most heavily in de- shown a marked risc, reflecting the high rate of car sales, mand as the production of 1963 models came to a close. which was perhaps partly stimulated by the continuation Department stores, in contrast, set a new sales record of the trend toward lower downpayments and longer during August, as cooler weather reportedly brought on maturities. It is noteworthy that, despite this easing in the a rush to purchase back-to-school items and fall fashions. terms of credit, data available from bankson delinquency The recent higher levels a spending appear to be amply rates for consumer instalment credit have shown no dis- supported by consumer incomes, which rose in July for cernible increase over the past three years. Indeed, such the fifth consecutive month. Intentions to spend within rates at a selected group of commercial banks surveyed by the next six months apparently also remain favorable (see the American Bankers Association averaged slightly lower Chart II). Thus, according to the latest survey by the Cen- in the first six months of this year than in the corresponding sus Bureau, consumers' new-car buying plans in mid-July period of 1962. The Money Market in August The money market was generally firm in August. Re- $1 billion a month, as compared with the $2 billion to serve distribution returned to the usual pattern of concen- $2.5 billion of one-year bills that had been auctioned tration in favor of banks outside the money ccntcrs during quarterly in the past. much of the month, and money market banks on occasion Treasury bill rates edged lower in early August in the experienced substantial reserve pressures. As a result, face of strong nonbank demand and a very limited market these banks bid strongly for Federal funds, which were at supply of bills. Over the rest of the month, however, rates times in rather limited supply, and the bulk of trading in moved higher in response to both contracting demand and Federal funds took place at 3½ per cent. The money expanded offerings. During the month, the market came market banks also had to acquire additional funds through increasingly to feel that the trend of official policy was sizable borrowingsfrom the Federal Reserve Banks. Rates still in the direction of encouraging higher short-term rates posted by the major New York City banks on new and and would seek to combat any pronounced decline in renewal call loans to Government securities dealers were these rates. An upward adjustment in rates on several generally quoted within a 3 to 3¾ per cent range during short-term money market instruments occurred during the period. the month. Rates on ninety-day unendorsed bankers' On August 21, the Treasury announced that it plans to acceptances rose by of a percentage point to 3¾ per offer one-year bills on a monthly basis, rather than quar- cent (bid); rates on prime four- to six-month commercial terly as in the past. The first of the new series—$l billion paper increased by 3 of a percentage point to 3/ per of one-year bills maturing on August 31, 1964—was cent (offered); and rates on various maturities of sales auctioned on August 27, for payment on September 3. finance company paper rose by ¼ to ¼ of a percentage Subsequent issues are also expected to amount to about point. The offering rates for new time certificates of deposit 140 MONTHLY REVIEW,SEPTEMBER 1963 of leading New York City banks also hardened, while a seasonal expansion in currency in circulation and a the range of rates at which such certificates are offered in contraction in vault cash and from a routine Treasury the secondary market rose by about 10 basis points in interest payment to System Account—more than offset the three-month maturity area and by somewhat over 15 an increase in float and a decline in required reserves. basis points in the six-month area. In the market for Treas- System open market operations during the month par- ury notes and bonds, price changes were generally small tially offset the net reserve losses due to market factors and mixed during the month in dull midsummer trading. and, as a result, net reserve availability averaged some- Widespread anticipation that a Treasury advance refund- what lower in August than in July. System outright hold- ing operation would soon be announced caused consider- ings of Government securities rose on average by $30 able hesitation on the part of investors during much of the million from the last statement period in July through thc period, but the current level of longer term interest rates final statement week in August, while holdings under re- was judged sufficiently stable to prevent major price move- purchase agreements increased by $26 million. Net System ments. Prices of corporate and tax-exempt bonds also holdings of bankers' acceptances declined by $3 million. changed little in August. From Wednesday, July 31, through Wednesday, August 28, System holdings of Government securities maturing in less than one declined while hold- BANK RESERVES year by $2,786 million, ings maturing in more than one year roseby $2,555 million. Market factors absorbedreserves on balance from the This shift primarily reflected the effect of the Treasury's last statement period in July through the final statement August 15 refunding, in which System holdings of maturing week in August. Reserve drains—stemming mainly from issues were exchanged for a fifteen-month note. THE SOVERNMENT SECURITIES MARKET CIIMIGES IN FACTORS TENDING TO INCREA2E OR DECREASE MEMBER BANK RESERVES, AUGUST 1963 Prices of Treasury notes and bonds moved quite nar- In ,nilhiona of dolLars; (+) dcno')ca biacase, rowly throughout August in light trading that was confined (—) dccrcaoc in excess fC3CfyCS mainly to switching operations. The month opened on Daily awis5—w,tI ceded a firm note with the appearance of good professional Fadar and investment demand, including the reinvestment in AuO. Aug. Au, 7 14 A. intermediate-term Treasury issues of the proceeds of a — recent tax-exempt bond offering. Moderate System pur- Operating trornaClions 144 — Ill — 14 — 42 Treceury p,uatIooa + — chases of coupon-bearing issues, undertaken to provide Fo.IOTaI fteemio6CM —M + 71' +420 861' lirreocy In clrculallun — 142 — 176 29 +122 bill added to de- account " — 12 —+ 2) —0 reserves without depressing rates, also Gold nd forelizi + — : tither deXJ4iI8. —50) + ') 177 +2 —'n mand at that time. From August 5 through August 14, a TOtal — 04 — 127 + 2x — 21.7 _____ slightly softer undertone developed, partly reflecting re- DirectF,d,rl R,wis c,tdit transs$lionI newed discussion in market advisory letters of the possi- Uu*-orOC44)t c.rlLle,. Direci narheI piuchsorx IW +82 — 12)) + 11') bility that the Treasury might shortly announce an advance 41,441 under FePUIChIOO —37 + 20 + '' and atha&*8: Loass. dIocOUlI*o. — refunding or prerefunding operation which would open up Moonber bank byrowlnIl + 255 — 44 — 34 2)) + Other +8 +23 +1 + 31 new investment opportunities. Adding to the uncertain hanker? acccPIanem: oughl outrlghl +2 — atmosphere was the August 12 increase in the Canadian Under relnUrhftee bank rate from 3½ per cent to 4 per cent. Against this Tote3 + 611' — 175 — 8211 + lOll + background, investors moved to the sidelines and activity r411nu Member bank — — WlIh Fedeyal P.eOrTTcBsulkB +526 305 —95 lii —o off. With a small net supply of bonds flowing an iroeriSit —20)) 40 — tapered Cssh nlloaod + into the market, including commercial bank offerings of Total rewvss? +5fS — 21)1) — 47 —101 LOot') of cMoho In rsulred rsia,rost... — 71' +20)4 —27 +103 intermediate-term issues, prices tended somewhat lower. relent')? + ISO — 74 Demand picked up again around midmonth, partly re- Daily arranlc,rl of neinb bank: flecting some professional short-covering and additional Borrowtrigo from 14oome flanka 308 352 294 274 510 )Cz rt-rrot 400 470 404 404 4429 System purchases as well as customer demand, and prices Fr*,, ,nIer,r10 06 120 310 130 1127 _____ briefly edged upward. The marketcontinued to be affected, Xote: Becoute of roundIng. 2gurxs do 1,01 nrcera.rlly 01211 to 101*10. however, by expectations that a Treasury advance refund- • Inclu,kxc)Lango, In Th&iciryconnie, nod cnth. was imminent. In addition, the announce- O Tk.rk fiuinren are eetln,atmL ing operation Anerago for (our wookiotided Auu*26. 1863. ment on August 19 that the United States S balance-of-b FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK 141 payments deficit had risen to an estimated annual rate of $5.2 billion in the second quarter of the year was inter- OTHER SECURITIES MARKETS preted as having a possible bearing on future monetary policy.
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